The sun is dead!! Mini iceage???

QuasarK19

Pretty good start:cool:.Folks who had been planning to sail thru a melted northern passage wont be too happy to see this:eek: <-- :D:D

Redsunset

now i know it concentrates on the shutting down of the north atlantic conveyor belt but combine that with little or no sunspots,:eek:

very scary stuff cause i believe about the gulf stream shutting down

QuasarK19

watching part 2.If their data is correct then this is really credible stuff.

Yeah perhaps a combination of the two as well as some other factors are what trigger deepchills

Redsunset

simply love this vid bout waiting on next solar cycle,music is perfect


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubmheSaSdAs

QuasarK19

redsunset wrote: »

simply love this vid bout waiting on next solar cycle,music is perfect


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubmheSaSdAs

:DThe music (starting)was also in the documentaries.Youre right,the horizon vid was good,but this vid is Brilliant:cool:

QuasarK19

The sun is blank--no sunspots. Credit: SOHO/MDI
Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 22 May 2009

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 2 days
2009 total: 116 days (83%)
Since 2004: 627 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days
explanation | more info
Updated 22 May 2009

:D:DAnother stretch begins.

Redsunset

Interestig earthfiles podcast here on longest solar minimum since 1913

http://www.earthfiles333.com/earthfiles/EarthfilesPodcast/Episode46.html

QuasarK19

redsunset wrote: »

Interestig earthfiles podcast here on longest solar minimum since 1913

http://www.earthfiles333.com/earthfiles/EarthfilesPodcast/Episode46.html

Nice.

:DThe experts didnt want to give predictions either.The second guy even said the coming back to bite you in the end stuff.

QuasarK19

People at spaceweather.com were getting pretty excited about that new sunspot,with its angry look,strong magnetic field and being the sign of things to come.The most impressive thing was the speed with which it faded away:D.

Redsunset

Mystery of the Missing Sunspots, Solved?



June 17, 2009: The sun is in the pits of a century-class solar minimum, and sunspots have been puzzlingly scarce for more than two years. Now, for the first time, solar physicists might understand why.
At an American Astronomical Society press conference today in Boulder, Colorado, researchers announced that a jet stream deep inside the sun is migrating slower than usual through the star's interior, giving rise to the current lack of sunspots.
Rachel Howe and Frank Hill of the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson, Arizona, used a technique called helioseismology to detect and track the jet stream down to depths of 7,000 km below the surface of the sun. The sun generates new jet streams near its poles every 11 years, they explained to a room full of reporters and fellow scientists. The streams migrate slowly from the poles to the equator and when a jet stream reaches the critical latitude of 22 degrees, new-cycle sunspots begin to appear.




Howe and Hill found that the stream associated with the next solar cycle has moved sluggishly, taking three years to cover a 10 degree range in latitude compared to only two years for the previous solar cycle.
The jet stream is now, finally, reaching the critical latitude, heralding a return of solar activity in the months and years ahead.
"It is exciting to see", says Hill, "that just as this sluggish stream reaches the usual active latitude of 22 degrees, a year late, we finally begin to see new groups of sunspots emerging."

The current solar minimum has been so long and deep, it prompted some scientists to speculate that the sun might enter a long period with no sunspot activity at all, akin to the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century. This new result dispells those concerns. The sun's internal magnetic dynamo is still operating, and the sunspot cycle is not "broken."
Because it flows beneath the surface of the sun, the jet stream is not directly visible. Hill and Howe tracked its hidden motions via helioseismology. Shifting masses inside the sun send pressure waves rippling through the stellar interior. So-called "p modes" (p for pressure) bounce around the interior and cause the sun to ring like an enormous bell. By studying the vibrations of the sun's surface, it is possible to figure out what is happening inside. Similar techniques are used by geologists to map the interior of our planet.
In this case, researchers combined data from GONG and SOHO. GONG, short for "Global Oscillation Network Group," is an NSO-led network of telescopes that measures solar vibrations from various locations around Earth. SOHO, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, makes similar measurements from space.

"This is an important discovery," says Dean Pesnell of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. "It shows how flows inside the sun are tied to the creation of sunspots and how jet streams can affect the timing of the solar cycle."



There is, however, much more to learn.
"We still don't understand exactly how jet streams trigger sunspot production," says Pesnell. "Nor do we fully understand how the jet streams themselves are generated."
To solve these mysteries, and others, NASA plans to launch the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) later this year. SDO is equipped with sophisticated helioseismology sensors that will allow it to probe the solar interior better than ever before.






03 July 09 The sun is blank, no sunspots. Credit: SOHO/MDI
Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 02 July 2009

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 8 days
2009 total: 142 days (77%)
Since 2004: 653 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days

Elmo5

Looks like another good stretch at the moment, 33 days since the last official sunspot. Wonder how this winter will turn out given the very quiet sun and an el nino year....

Redsunset

A Correlation Between Sun Spot Cycles and El Niño

Dr. James H. L. Lawler

There is a correlation between Solar Sun spot cycles and El Niño events.

Every year following a minimum number of solar sun spots is an el niño year. The el niño events also happen at other times in between these 11 year cycles, but every solar minimum is associated with an el niño event.
Since the el niño event happens on the average about every 6 years the sun spots predict about half of them.

There is a long record of accurate solar sun spot observations starting about 1600. These number of sun spots fluctuate from a quiet time with very few, 10 or even less, visible sun spots to major activity, up to about 200 sun spots visible on any given day.

These follow roughly an 11 year cycle with peaks every 10.57 years on the average, but with as much as 1.5 years variance observed in the cycle length. The cycles alternate with leading North and South magnetic poles. Every other cycle has leading NORTH magnetic poles, and the alternate cycle has leading SOUTH magnetic poles, thus the real full cycle is 21 years, not 10.57. Dr Hale noticed this and he plotted every other cycle "upside down" to graphically represent this "Hale" 21 year pattern.

In addition to the Hale cycle, there is a longer range 110 year pulse of activity, the magnitude of the peaks grows from about 11 cycle maximums to a maximal activity of about 200 sun spots visible on any given day, with peaks centered on roughly 1785, 1860 and 1960 and then activity declines with peak activity reaching only perhaps 100 sunspots ca 1690, 1810, 1910, and projected to 2020 with a decline from the recent peak activity of 1989-1991 at about 210 sunspots. The peak activity of circa 2001 should be ca 160-180, and by 2010-11 down to 140-150 with the peak ca 2021-2022 down again to about 110-120 sun spots. 1996/7 is a Solar minimum.

From 1600 until about 1700 the sun was going through an unusual period of minimal activity, the "Maunder minimum", where the climate of Europe became unusually cold. For example ice froze on the canals of Holland for the first time in recorded history.

There also was another minimum circa 1200-1300 that is not well recorded. In Europe we have no solar records at all, but Chinese records do partially record this solar minimum. The results were catastrophic world wide.

In Peru the Wari culture had such a long drought that the population of the capital city declined form about 50,000 to about 25,000. They literally starved to death. The Mesa Verde Indians in Colorado, now USA, abandoned their entire main cultural site and moved to where they could find enough water.

In Europe the cold forced a major change in customs. First the Kings and Queens and then the "Lords and Ladies" moved into smaller, private, warmer bedrooms, instead of living in open, drafty, and poorly heated "Great Halls" of the Castles as was the custom prior to 1200.

Since 1700 the sun spot activity has peaked regularly every 11 years, (10.57 actual mean period) with minimum activity below 20 sun spots, even below 10 sun spots visible on any given day for typically over 100 days in a row. There have been three super cycles of about 110 years observed.

The trees leave a record of bad growth years in their rings. This unusually small tree growth pattern has been observed in Germany in the Spesart and Trier forests back to 820 AD, and in the USA in 20 different zones back to before 1800 AD, and in Indonesia back to 1500 AD. They all coincide exactly. Looking at tree ring data we can project these solar cycles backwards with some confidence to about 820 AD adding 6 more super cycles and over a hundred 10.57 year cycles.

As mentioned before these solar cycles alternate. The spots come in pairs with leading north magnetic poles one cycle and then next cycle leading south magnetic poles in the next cycle; so in order to accommodate and represent this Professor Hale alternated every other cycle above the axis below the axis. This "Hale" presentation follows a 21 year period rather closely.

The extreme el niño events follow the hale cycle even closer than the 11 year cycle, and 1976, 1954, 1933, 1912, 1892. and 1866 all were extreme el niño cases with severe droughts world wide. If we add 1997 that will complete the predictive nature of the observation and tend to confirm the hypothesis.

El niño events, unfortunately, are not all that well recorded. While in Peru in 1996 I went to the national library for two days and made a brief search of the records. Prior to 1890 only very scattered records in personal diaries telling of unusual weather conditions exist. There are no formal records at all. From the other records I was able to add 1878, 1866, 1857, 1842/3, and 1832 events. This needs to be researched better, since I had limited time and could not do as thorough a job as is really needed. But knowing when to look, some of the years el niño is expected, should aid in the research.

What happens, and WHY?
The sun spots appear to be associated with more energy reaching earth, and solar minima are associated with less heat, or global cooling. The oceans are vast reservoirs of heat for earth and by Le Chatelier's principle will try to react so as to minimize any change in solar heating.
Thus the oceans and weather react to release heat from the oceans to the continental masses at minima.

In this time Peru receives both more heat and more water. But if Peru gets more water, some other area must get less... in fact most will get less since there is less total energy to produce water vapor. Thus el niño is associated with drought in most places. Australia, areas of Indonesia, the US high planes and the Russian/ Asian steppes all suffer. The monsoons also fail in India.

The el niño brings added water from the ocean, to costal Peru and moderation (warming of the coldest months, cooling of the warmer months) of the pacific Peruvian costal climate, but also dumps water causing mud slides etc. in California. Thus it is a truly global phenomena.

Redsunset

article from a couple of weeks ago



last year marked the blankest year of the Sun in the last half-century

266 days with not a single sunspot visible from Earth. Then, in the first four months of 2009, the Sun became even more blank, the pace of sunspots slowing more.

“It’s been as dead as a doornail,” David Hathaway, a solar physicist at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala., said a couple of months ago.

The Sun perked up in June and July, with a sizeable clump of 20 sunspots earlier this month.
Now it is blank again, consistent with expectations that this solar cycle will be smaller and calmer, and the maximum of activity, expected to arrive in May 2013 will not be all that maximum.

For operators of satellites and power grids, that is good news. The same roiling magnetic fields that generate sunspot blotches also accelerate a devastating rain of particles that can overload and wreck electronic equipment in orbit or on Earth.

A panel of 12 scientists assembled by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration now predicts that the May 2013 peak will average 90 sunspots during that month. That would make it the weakest solar maximum since 1928, which peaked at 78 sunspots. During an average solar maximum, the Sun is covered with an average of 120 sunspots.

But the panel’s consensus “was not a unanimous decision,” said Douglas A. Biesecker, chairman of the panel. One member still believed the cycle would roar to life while others thought the maximum would peter out at only 70.

Among some global warming skeptics, there is speculation that the Sun may be on the verge of falling into an extended slumber similar to the so-called Maunder Minimum, several sunspot-scarce decades during the 17th and 18th centuries that coincided with an extended chilly period.
Most solar physicists do not think anything that odd is going on with the Sun. With the recent burst of sunspots, “I don’t see we’re going into that,” Dr. Hathaway said last week.

Still, something like the Dalton Minimum — two solar cycles in the early 1800s that peaked at about an average of 50 sunspots — lies in the realm of the possible, Dr. Hathaway said. (The minimums are named after scientists who helped identify them: Edward W. Maunder and John Dalton.)


With better telescopes on the ground and a fleet of Sun-watching spacecraft, solar scientists know a lot more about the Sun than ever before. But they do not understand everything. Solar dynamo models, which seek to capture the dynamics of the magnetic field, cannot yet explain many basic questions, not even why the solar cycles average 11 years in length.

Predicting the solar cycle is, in many ways, much like predicting the stock market. A full understanding of the forces driving solar dynamics is far out of reach, so scientists look to key indicators that correlate with future events and create models based on those.

For example, in 2006, Dr. Hathaway looked at the magnetic fields in the polar regions of the Sun, and they were strong. During past cycles, strong polar fields at minimum grew into strong fields all over the Sun at maximum and a bounty of sunspots. Because the previous cycle had been longer than average, Dr. Hathaway thought the next one would be shorter and thus solar minimum was imminent. He predicted the new solar cycle would be a ferocious one.

Instead, the new cycle did not arrive as quickly as Dr. Hathaway anticipated, and the polar field weakened. His revised prediction is for a smaller-than-average maximum. Last November, it looked like the new cycle was finally getting started, with the new cycle sunspots in the middle latitudes outnumbering the old sunspots of the dying cycle that are closer to the equator.

After a minimum, solar activity usually takes off quickly, but instead the Sun returned to slumber. “There was a long lull of several months of virtually no activity, which had me worried,” Dr. Hathaway said.
The idea that solar cycles are related to climate is hard to fit with the actual change in energy output from the sun. From solar maximum to solar minimum, the Sun’s energy output drops a minuscule 0.1 percent.
But the overlap of the Maunder Minimum with the Little Ice Age, when Europe experienced unusually cold weather, suggests that the solar cycle could have more subtle influences on climate.

One possibility proposed a decade ago by Henrik Svensmark and other scientists at the Danish National Space Center in Copenhagen looks to high-energy interstellar particles known as cosmic rays. When cosmic rays slam into the atmosphere, they break apart air molecules into ions and electrons, which causes water and sulfuric acid in the air to stick together in tiny droplets. These droplets are seeds that can grow into clouds, and clouds reflect sunlight, potentially lowering temperatures.

The Sun, the Danish scientists say, influences how many cosmic rays impinge on the atmosphere and thus the number of clouds. When the Sun is frenetic, the solar wind of charged particles it spews out increases. That expands the cocoon of magnetic fields around the solar system, deflecting some of the cosmic rays.

But, according to the hypothesis, when the sunspots and solar winds die down, the magnetic cocoon contracts, more cosmic rays reach Earth, more clouds form, less sunlight reaches the ground, and temperatures cool.

“I think it’s an important effect,” Dr. Svensmark said, although he agrees that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that has certainly contributed to recent warming.

Dr. Svensmark and his colleagues found a correlation between the rate of incoming cosmic rays and the coverage of low-level clouds between 1984 and 2002. They have also found that cosmic ray levels, reflected in concentrations of various isotopes, correlate well with climate extending back thousands of years.

But other scientists found no such pattern with higher clouds, and some other observations seem inconsistent with the hypothesis.

Terry Sloan, a cosmic ray expert at the University of Lancaster in England, said if the idea were true, one would expect the cloud-generation effect to be greatest in the polar regions where the Earth’s magnetic field tends to funnel cosmic rays.
“You’d expect clouds to be modulated in the same way,” Dr. Sloan said. “We can’t find any such behavior.”
Still, “I would think there could well be some effect,” he said, but he thought the effect was probably small. Dr. Sloan’s findings indicate that the cosmic rays could at most account for 20 percent of the warming of recent years.


Even without cosmic rays, however, a 0.1 percent change in the Sun’s energy output is enough to set off El Niño- and La Niña-like events that can influence weather around the world, according to new research led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.
Climate modeling showed that over the largely cloud-free areas of the Pacific Ocean, the extra heating over several years warms the water, increasing evaporation. That intensifies the tropical storms and trade winds in the eastern Pacific, and the result is cooler-than-normal waters, as in a La Niña event, the scientists reported this month in the Journal of Climate.

In a year or two, the cool water pattern evolves into a pool of El Niño-like warm water, the scientists said.
New instruments should provide more information for scientists to work with. A 1.7-meter telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory in Southern California is up and running, and one of its first photographs shows “a string of pearls,” each about 50 miles across.

“At that scale, they can only be the fundamental fibril structure of the Sun’s magnetic field,” said Philip R. Goode, director of the solar observatory. Other telescopes may have caught hints of these tiny structures, he said, but “never so many in a row and not so clearly resolved.”

Sun-watching spacecraft cannot match the acuity of ground-based telescopes, but they can see wavelengths that are blocked by the atmosphere — and there are never any clouds in the way. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s newest sun-watching spacecraft, the Solar Dynamics Observatory, which is scheduled for launching this fall, will carry an instrument that will essentially be able to take sonograms that deduce the convection flows generating the magnetic fields.

That could help explain why strong magnetic fields sometimes coalesce into sunspots and why sometimes the strong fields remain disorganized without forming spots. The mechanics of how solar storms erupt out of a sunspot are also not fully understood.

A quiet cycle is no guarantee no cataclysmic solar storms will occur. The largest storm ever observed occurred in 1859, during a solar cycle similar to what is predicted.
Back then, it scrambled telegraph wires. Today, it could knock out an expanse of the power grid from Maine south to Georgia and west to Illinois. Ten percent of the orbiting satellites would be disabled. A study by the National Academy of Sciences calculated the damage would exceed a trillion dollars.
But no one can quite explain the current behavior or reliably predict the future.

“We still don’t quite understand this beast,” Dr. Hathaway said. “The theories we had for how the sunspot cycle works have major problems.”

Elmo5

Thanks for the articles redsunset. I'm such a novice but this stuff has me fascinated. We really live in very interesting times. I am really hoping that we get a good snowy winter out of all these spotless days!

Redsunset

info from spaceweather.com.


QUIET SUN: According to NOAA sunspot counts, the longest stretch of spotless suns during the current solar minimum was 52 days in July, August and Sept. of 2008. The current spate of blank suns is putting that record in jeopardy. There have been no sunspots for almost 42 days and there are none in the offing. Deep solar minimum continues.



21 Aug 09



The sun is blank--no sunspots. Photo credit: SOHO/MDI




Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 20 Aug 2009

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 41 days
2009 total: 183 days (79%)
Since 2004: 694 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days




so folks when is the new solar cycle gonna truly kick off.i think this is remarkable and will prob only see this in our lifetime so we should feel somewhat in awe bout this.who cares if it turns out to be a load of hullaballo.one thing for sure its great to be able to talk bout such an event.

QuasarK19

:DSo much for the jet stream.The stretch continues.The guy at spaceweather really wants this cycle to get going,and I thought astronomers were supposed to be impartial:D.

I never thought it could go this long after all the cheering for that last spot.
Its cool and a bit scary at the same time:D.
Lets see if the record gets taken out.

Redsunset

just a quick update


Today marks the 45th consecutive day without spots on the sun--one of the longest quiet spells of the current solar minimum. In early July, sunspot 1024 seemed to herald the long-awaited onset of Solar Cycle 24, but shortly after that apparition, sunspot production turned off again. The deepest solar minimum in a century continues.:D

billy the squid

What kind of sunspot activity was there around the winter of 62-63

Redsunset

billy the squid wrote: »

What kind of sunspot activity was there around the winter of 62-63

it was a solar minimum with few sunspots


The numbers tabulated in are the monthly averages (SSN) and standard deviation (DEV) derived from the International Sunspot Numbers.

1962 11 26.9 20.9
1962 12 23.2 14.8
1963 1 19.8 11.4
1963 2 24.4 15.8
1963 3 17.1 8.8

Redsunset

here's another view

Elmo5

That's a really cool graph, where did you find it? Would love to search for other years, particularly that big snow we had in the 80s. Jan 83 I think..

Redsunset

any date in time as regards sunspot numbers is all here on

http://spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotplotter.htm?PHPSESSID=alp8lnm9jtup07070mjjltdm66



just look at today's graph,mad how quiet it is

Kippure

redsunset wrote: »

any date in time as regards sunspot numbers is all here on

http://spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotplotter.htm?PHPSESSID=alp8lnm9jtup07070mjjltdm66



just look at today's graph,mad how quiet it is

I was putting in the dates we have had cold or snowy winters. Most with low sunspot activity. How ever 82 there was high activity and we still got a load of snow. 63/63 had some activity. We have zero sunspot activity now. What does this winter hold for us?

Redsunset

Kippure wrote: »

I was putting in the dates we have had cold or snowy winters. Most with low sunspot activity. How ever 82 there was high activity and we still got a load of snow. 63/63 had some activity. We have zero sunspot activity now. What does this winter hold for us?

I think in a long term sense that yes there will be a gradual cooling of surface temps across the globe however I don't believe its going to burst onto the scene but the lack of sunspots effect may have started to create the first piece of the giant puzzle.

The National Solar Observatory have discovered that the sun's surface is changing, and magnetic ropes are fewer. The sun's magnetic field has decreased by 20%, and the earth has followed with a decreased magnetic field which is suppose to allow more cosmic rays to filter in and cause cloud formation.

read all bout cosmic rays in previous posts.

NASA released results that the solar wind had decreased greatly in the last 50 years.

And now an abstract from

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fsd/astro/sunspots.php


the jury is still out on how much sunspots can (or do) affect the Earth's climate. Times of maximum sunspot activity are associated with a very slight increase in the energy output from the sun. Ultraviolet radiation increases dramatically during high sunspot activity, which can have a large effect on the Earth's atmosphere. From the mid 1600s to early 1700s, a period of very low sunspot activity (known as the Maunder Minimum) coincided with a number of long winters and severe cold temperatures in Western Europe, called the Little Ice Age. It is not known whether the two phenomena are linked or if it was just coincidence. The reason it is hard to relate maximum and minimum solar activity (sunspots) to the Earth's climate, is due to the complexity of the Earth's climate itself. For example, how does one sort out whether a long-term weather change was caused by sunspots, or maybe a coinciding El Nino or La Nina? Increased volcanic eruptions can also affect the Earth's climate by cooling the planet. And what about the burning of fossil fuels and clear cutting rain forests? One thing is more certain, sunspot cycles have been correlated in the width of tree ring growth. More study will be conducted in the future on relating sunspot activity and our Earth's climate



so as you can see not even the best scientists know the answer,but im putting my money on us entering a change toward slightly cooler conditions in the long term.


As regards most of our cold winters coinciding with lack of spots,well the only response i can give is read the abstract and come to your own conclusion.

This is a very debatable topic of which only time will tell us the true answer.

Redsunset

Another great read here http://alexansary.com/Editorial/Sun%20spots%20and%20a%20weakened%20magnetic%20field.html




Global thermometers stopped rising after 1998, and have plummeted in the last two years by more than 0.5 degrees Celsius. The 2007-2008 temperature drop was not predicted by global climate models. But it was predictable by a decline in sunspot activity since 2000.





Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 46 days
2009 total: 188 days (79%)
Since 2004: 699 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days

Redsunset

Global temps since 1988 chart








All four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA's GISS, UAH, RSS) have released updated data. All show that over the past year, global temperatures have dropped precipitously.





According to Robert Toggweiler of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton University and Joellen Russell, assistant professor of biogeochemical dynamics at the University of Arizona -- two prominent climate modellers -- the computer models that show polar ice-melt cooling the oceans, stopping the circulation of warm equatorial water to northern latitudes and triggering another Ice Age (a la the movie The Day After Tomorrow) are all wrong.


"We missed what was right in front of our eyes," says Prof. Russell. It's not ice melt but rather wind circulation that drives ocean currents northward from the tropics. Climate models until now have not properly accounted for the wind's effects on ocean circulation, so researchers have compensated by over-emphasizing the role of manmade warming on polar ice melt.


But when Profs. Toggweiler and Russell rejigged their model to include the 40-year cycle of winds away from the equator (then back towards it again), the role of ocean currents bringing warm southern waters to the north was obvious in the current Arctic warming.


Last month, Oleg Sorokhtin, a fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, shrugged off manmade climate change as "a drop in the bucket." Showing that solar activity has entered an inactive phase, Prof. Sorokhtin advised people to "stock up on fur coats."


He is not alone. Kenneth Tapping of our own National Research Council, who oversees a giant radio telescope focused on the sun, is convinced we are in for a long period of severely cold weather if sunspot activity does not pick up soon.


The last time the sun was this inactive, Earth suffered the Little Ice Age that lasted about five centuries and ended in 1850. Crops failed through killer frosts and drought. Famine, plague and war were widespread. Harbours froze, so did rivers, and trade ceased.


It's way too early to claim the same is about to happen again, but then it's way too early for the hysteria of the global warmers, too.

Redsunset

Just couldn't resist putting up this pic of an ORANGE our SUN:D

I've just noticed that this pic of our prime weather driver updates daily so will be handy to see any new acne appear.

Kippure

That picture says it all

http://z.hubpages.com/u/165961_f248.jpg

Elmo5

LOL, I love that picture!

Redsunset

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 48 days
2009 total: 190 days (79%)
Since 2004: 701 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days




BLANK SUN: Inspect the image below. It is a photo of the sun taken by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). Can you guess what day it was taken?

August 28th, today. But it could have been taken on any day of the past seven weeks. For all that time, the face of the sun has looked exactly the same--utterly blank.

According to NOAA sunspot counts, the longest string of blank suns during the current solar minimum was 52 days back in July, Aug. and Sept. of 2008. If the current trend continues for only four more days, the record will shift to 2009. It's likely to happen; the sun remains eerily quiet and there are no sunspots in the offing.
Solar minimum is shaping up to be a big event indeed.

QuasarK19

Spaceweather is hyping up another prominence.Could it be the spot that stops the record,or just wishful thinking.

QuasarK19

Hey buddy,howve you been.Looks like that spot ruined the streak.

Wonder if spaceweather.com had something to do with it:D.

Redsunset

September 3, 2009: The sun is in the pits of the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century. Weeks and sometimes whole months go by without even a single tiny sunspot. The quiet has dragged out for more than two years, prompting some observers to wonder, are sunspots disappearing?


"Personally, I'm betting that sunspots are coming back," says researcher Matt Penn of the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson, Arizona. But, he allows, "there is some evidence that they won't."


Penn's colleague Bill Livingston of the NSO has been measuring the magnetic fields of sunspots for the past 17 years, and he has found a remarkable trend. Sunspot magnetism is on the decline:


https://us.v-cdn.net/6034073/uploads/attachments/195037/89832.JPG



Above: Sunspot magnetic fields measured by Livingston and Penn from 1992 - Feb. 2009 using an infrared Zeeman splitting technique. URL="http://www.leif.org/EOS/2009EO300001.pdf"][COLOR=#800080]more[/COLOR][/URL
"Sunspot magnetic fields are dropping by about 50 gauss per year," says Penn. "If we extrapolate this trend into the future, sunspots could completely vanish around the year 2015."


This disappearing act is possible because sunspots are made of magnetism. The "firmament" of a sunspot is not matter but rather a strong magnetic field that appears dark because it blocks the upflow of heat from the sun's interior. If Earth lost its magnetic field, the solid planet would remain intact, but if a sunspot loses its magnetism, it ceases to exist.



"According to our measurements, sunspots seem to form only if the magnetic field is stronger than about 1500 gauss," says Livingston. "If the current trend continues, we'll hit that threshold in the near future, and solar magnetic fields would become too weak to form sunspots."


"This work has caused a sensation in the field of solar physics," comments NASA sunspot expert David Hathaway, who is not directly involved in the research. "It's controversial stuff."
The controversy is not about the data. "We know Livingston and Penn are excellent observers," says Hathaway. "The trend that they have discovered appears to be real." The part colleagues have trouble believing is the extrapolation. Hathaway notes that most of their data were taken after the maximum of Solar Cycle 23 (2000-2002) when sunspot activity naturally began to decline. "The drop in magnetic fields could be a normal aspect of the solar cycle and not a sign that sunspots are permanently vanishing."

Penn himself wonders about these points. "Our technique is relatively new and the data stretches back in time only 17 years. We could be observing a temporary downturn that will reverse itself."


The technique they're using was pioneered by Livingston at the McMath-Pierce solar telescope near Tucson. He looks at a spectral line emitted by iron atoms in the sun's atmosphere. Sunspot magnetic fields cause the line to split in two—an effect called "Zeeman splitting" after Dutch physicist Pieter Zeeman who discovered the phenomenon in the 19th century. The size of the split reveals the intensity of the magnetism.


Astronomers have been measuring sunspot magnetic fields in this general way for nearly a century, but Livingston added a twist. While most researchers measure the splitting of spectral lines in the visible part of the sun's spectrum, Livingston decided to try an infra-red spectral line. Infrared lines are much more sensitive to the Zeeman effect and provide more accurate answers. Also, he dedicated himself to measuring a large number of sunspots—more than 900 between 1998 and 2005 alone. The combination of accuracy and numbers revealed the downturn.


If sunspots do go away, it wouldn't be the first time. In the 17th century, the sun plunged into a 70-year period of spotlessness known as the Maunder Minimum that still baffles scientists. The sunspot drought began in 1645 and lasted until 1715; during that time, some of the best astronomers in history (e.g., Cassini) monitored the sun and failed to count more than a few dozen sunspots per year, compared to the usual thousands.


"Whether [the current downturn] is an omen of long-term sunspot decline, analogous to the Maunder Minimum, remains to be seen," Livingston and Penn caution in a recent issue of EOS. "Other indications of solar activity suggest that sunspots must return in earnest within the next year."
Whatever happens, notes Hathaway, "the sun is behaving in an interesting way and I believe we're about to learn something new."

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap02/sunspots.html

the sunspot number during 1861-1989 shows a remarkable parallelism with the simultaneous variation in northern hemisphere mean temperatures (2). There is an even better correlation with the length of the solar cycle, between years of the highest numbers of sunspots. For example, the temperature anomaly was - 0.4 K in 1890 when the cycle was 11.7 years, but + 0.25 K in 1989 when the cycle was 9.8 years. Some critics of the theory of man-induced global warming have seized on this discovery to criticize the greenhouse gas theory.

Willson indicates that if the current rate of increase of solar irradiance continues until the mid 21th century, then the surface temperatures will increase by about 0.5� C. This is small, but not a negligible fraction of the expected greenhouse warming.

The relationship between cycle length and Earth temperatures is not well understood. Lower-than normal temperatures tend to occur in years when the sunspot cycle is longest, as confirmed by records of the annual duration of sea-ice around Iceland. The cycle will be longest again in the early 2020's.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8009185.stm

The sun is the dimmest and quietest it has been for a century.

Scientists say images from its surface show a marked decline in events such as sunspots and solar flares, but they say it will not be enough to prevent global warming.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8009492.stm

Astronomers hope new images of the Sun will offer an insight into why there is so little activity on our closest star.
The BBC's Pallab Ghosh compares images of the Sun from 2001 and earlier this year to show how activity has fallen.

Redsunset

No Sunspots Throw Climate Models Into Disarray


Modern climate models make many erroneous assumptions. Bad assumptions lead to errors in inference, when examining model output. One of the most significant data crimes of modern climate modelers is in ignoring the variability of Sol, our variable star.Fortunately, real scientists (not mere modelers) are beginning to examine the very real climate effects that arise from the solar energy flux when going from solar maximum to solar minimum.

A new study in the journal Science by a team of international of researchers led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research have found that the sunspot cycle has a big effect on the earth's weather. The puzzle has been how fluctuations in the sun's energy of about 0.1 percent over the course of the 11-year sunspot cycle could affect the weather? The press release describing the new study explains:

The team first confirmed a theory that the slight increase in solar energy during the peak production of sunspots is absorbed by stratospheric ozone. The energy warms the air in the stratosphere over the tropics, where sunlight is most intense, while also stimulating the production of additional ozone there that absorbs even more solar energy. Since the stratosphere warms unevenly, with the most pronounced warming occurring at lower latitudes, stratospheric winds are altered and, through a chain of interconnected processes, end up strengthening tropical precipitation.

At the same time, the increased sunlight at solar maximum causes a slight warming of ocean surface waters across the subtropical Pacific, where Sun-blocking clouds are normally scarce. That small amount of extra heat leads to more evaporation, producing additional water vapor. In turn, the moisture is carried by trade winds to the normally rainy areas of the western tropical Pacific, fueling heavier rains and reinforcing the effects of the stratospheric mechanism.

The top-down influence of the stratosphere and the bottom-up influence of the ocean work together to intensify this loop and strengthen the trade winds. As more sunshine hits drier areas, these changes reinforce each other, leading to less clouds in the subtropics, allowing even more sunlight to reach the surface, and producing a positive feedback loop that further magnifies the climate response.

These stratospheric and ocean responses during solar maximum keep the equatorial eastern Pacific even cooler and drier than usual, producing conditions similar to a La Nina event. However, the cooling of about 1-2 degrees Fahrenheit is focused farther east than in a typical La Nina, is only about half as strong, and is associated with different wind patterns in the stratosphere.
_Reason

We are currently experiencing a rather unusual transition from solar cycle 23 to cycle 24. Sunspots have been very slow in appearing, and solar scientists are at a loss to explain why all of their predictions for the current cycle transition have failed.

...something is unusual about the current sunspot cycle. The current solar minimum has been unusually long, and with more than 670 days without sunspots through June 2009, the number of spotless days has not been equaled since 1933 (see http:// users . telenet .be/ j . janssens/ Spotless/ Spotless .html). The solar wind is reported to be in a uniquely low energy state since space measurements began nearly 40 years ago [Fisk and Zhao, 2009].

Why is a lack of sunspot activity interesting? During the period from 1645 to 1715, the Sun entered a period of low activity now known as the Maunder Minimum, when through several 11- year periods the Sun displayed few if any sunspots. Models of the Sun’s irradiance suggest that the solar energy input to the Earth decreased during that time and that this change in solar activity could explain the low temperatures recorded in Europe during the Little Ice Age [Lean et al., 1992]. _Eos_PDF_via_Reason

Real scientists are teaching the climate modelers a lesson: models are not the climate. Climate models are merely hypotheses in mathematics and computer code. They have to be thoroughly tested by scientific observations, before society is massively disrupted to suit the models.







Small fluctuations in solar activity, large influence on the climate

Sun spot frequency has an unexpectedly strong influence on cloud formation and precipitation

Our sun does not radiate evenly. The best known example of radiation fluctuations is the famous 11-year cycle of sun spots. Nobody denies its influence on the natural climate variability, but climate models have, to-date, not been able to satisfactorily reconstruct its impact on climate activity.

Researchers from the USA and from Germany have now, for the first time, successfully simulated, in detail, the complex interaction between solar radiation, atmosphere, and the ocean. As the scientific journal Science reports in its latest issue, Gerald Meehl of the US-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and his team have been able to calculate how the extremely small variations in radiation brings about a comparatively significant change in the System “Atmosphere-Ocean”.

Katja Matthes of the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, and co-author of the study, states: „Taking into consideration the complete radiation spectrum of the sun, the radiation intensity within one sun spot cycle varies by just 0.1 per cent. Complex interplay mechanisms in the stratosphere and the troposphere, however, create measurable changes in the water temperature of the Pacific and in precipitation”.

Top Down – Bottom up

In order for such reinforcement to take place many small wheels have to interdigitate. The initial process runs from the top downwards: increased solar radiation leads to more ozone and higher temperatures in the stratosphere. “The ultraviolet radiation share varies much more strongly than the other shares in the spectrum, i.e. by five to eight per cent, and that forms more ozone” explains Katja Matthes. As a result, especially the tropical stratosphere becomes warmer, which in turn leads to changed atmospheric circulation. Thus, the interrelated typical precipitation patterns in the tropics are also displaced.

The second process takes place in the opposite way: the higher solar activity leads to more evaporation in the cloud free areas. With the trade winds the increased amounts of moisture are transported to the equator, where they lead to stronger precipitation, lower water temperatures in the East Pacific and reduced cloud formation, which in turn allows for increased evaporation. Katja Matthes: “It is this positive back coupling that strengthens the process”. With this it is possible to explain the respective measurements and observations on the Earth’s surface.

Professor Reinhard Huettl, Chairman of the Scientific Executive Board of the GFZ (Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres) adds: “The study is important for comprehending the natural climatic variability, which – on different time scales – is significantly influenced by the sun. In order to better understand the anthropogenically induced climate change and to make more reliable future climate scenarios, it is very important to understand the underlying natural climatic variability.

This investigation shows again that we still have substantial research needs to understand the climate system”. Together with the Alfred Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research and the Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum the GFZ is, therefore, organising a conference “Climate in the System Earth” scheduled for 2./3. November 2009 in Berlin.






[NOTE: there is evidence of solar impact on the surface temperature record, as Basil Copeland and I discovered in this report published here on WUWT titled Evidence of a Lunisolar Influence on Decadal and Bidecadal Oscillations In Globally Averaged Temperature Trends - Anthony]


Past studies have shown that sunspot numbers correspond to warming or cooling trends. The twentieth century has featured heightened activity, indicating a warming trend. (Source: Wikimedia Commons)

Solar activity has shown a major spike in the twentieth century, corresponding to global warming. This cyclic variation was acknowledged by a recent NASA study, which reviewed a great deal of past climate data. (Source: Wikimedia Commons)


Solar activity has shown a major spike in the twentieth century, corresponding to global warming. This cyclic variation was acknowledged by a recent NASA study, which reviewed a great deal of past climate data. (Source: Wikimedia Commons)
Now, a new research report from a surprising source may help to lay this skepticism to rest. A study from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland looking at climate data over the past century has concluded that solar variation has made a significant impact on the Earth’s climate. The report concludes that evidence for climate changes based on solar radiation can be traced back as far as the Industrial Revolution.
Past research has shown that the sun goes through eleven year cycles. At the cycle’s peak, solar activity occurring near sunspots is particularly intense, basking the Earth in solar heat. According to Robert Cahalan, a climatologist at the Goddard Space Flight Center,

“Right now, we are in between major ice ages, in a period that has been called the Holocene.”

Thomas Woods, solar scientist at the University of Colorado in Boulder concludes,

“The fluctuations in the solar cycle impacts Earth’s global temperature by about 0.1 degree Celsius, slightly hotter during solar maximum and cooler during solar minimum. The sun is currently at its minimum, and the next solar maximum is expected in 2012.”

According to the study, during periods of solar quiet, 1,361 watts per square meter of solar energy reaches Earth’s outermost atmosphere. Periods of more intense activity brought 1.3 watts per square meter (0.1 percent) more energy.

Redsunset

we've hit the 200 spotless days this year mark,how many more???





Here's a pdf powerpoint loaded with diagrams about this subject,make your own mind up.

http://climaterealists.com/attachments/database/WeatherActionPowerPointWhatDoesDoesntCauseClimateChange.pdf

Redsunset

The latest global averaged satellite temperature data for June 2009 reveals yet another drop in the Earth's temperature. This latest drop in global temperatures means despite his dire warnings, the Earth has cooled .74°F since former Vice President Al Gore released "An Inconvenient Truth" in 2006.

According to the latest global satellite data courtesy of the University of Alabama in Huntsville and made into an easy to read graph by algorelied.com: "For the record, this month's Al Gore / 'An Inconvenient Truth' Index indicates that global temperatures have plunged approximately .74°F (.39°C) since Gore's film was released," noted algorelied.com. (See satellite temperature chart here with key dates noted, courtesy of www.Algorelied.com - Also see: 8 Year Downtrend Continues in Global Temps)
Gore -- who is fond of saying the Earth has a "fever" -- has not yet addressed the simple fact that global temperatures have dropped since the release of his global warming film.
(Gore has also not addressed this: Another Moonwalker Defies Gore: NASA Astronaut Dr. Buzz Aldrin rejects global warming fears: 'Climate has been changing for billions of years' - Moonwalkers Defy Gore's Claim That Climate Skeptics Are Akin To Those Who Believe Moon Landing was 'Staged')
A record cool summer has descended upon many parts of the U.S. after predictions of the "year without a summer." There has been no significant global warming since 1995, no warming since 1998 and global cooling for the past few years. (Also see: Scientists Write Open Letter to Congress: 'Earth has been cooling for ten years' - 'Present cooling was NOT predicted by the alarmists' computer models, and has come as an embarrassment to them' - July 1, 2009)

In addition, New peer-reviewed scientific studies now predict a continued lack of global warming for up to three decades as natural climate factors dominate. (See: Climate Fears RIP...for 30 years!? - Global Warming could stop 'for up to 30 years! Warming 'On Hold?...'Could go into hiding for decades' study finds – Discovery.com – March 2, 2009 - And See: 'Global temps have flat lined since 2001...This is nothing like anything we've seen since 1950...Cooling trend could last for up to 30 years' - June 22, 2009 )
This means that today's high school kids being forced to watch Al Gore's “An Inconvenient Truth” – some of them 4 times in 4 different classes – will be nearly eligible for AARP (age 50) retirement group membership by the time warming resumes if these new studies turn out to be correct. (Editor's Note: Claims that warming will “resume” due to explosive heat in the "pipeline" have also been thoroughly debunked. See: Climatologist Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. 'There is no warming in the pipeline' )

Redsunset

Solar Physicist Predicts Ice Age. What happened to global warming?

Timo Niroma, a physicist from Finland, publishes a Solar Report each month. He has given his permission to use it and distribute it to all.




THE CYCLE GOES AT THE MOMENT BELOW DALTON LEVEL


In the following Timo discusses the sunspot activity of the new, as yet not begun, cycle #24:
"So the activity of the cycle 24 has still been greatest in October-November 2008
by length (2 times 8 days). Also by size of the together 4 of size 80, 3
appeared in November 2008, and now one in June 2009.
Altogether there were six sunspot groups in June, but the five after the decent
spot in the beginning of June lasted from 1 to 3 days. The sunspot number of May
was 2.6.
From July 2008 to June 2009 the sunspot number has varied from 0.5 (July and
August 2008) to 4.1 (November 2008). December 2008 and March 2009 were also very
quiet (0.8 and 0.7). Besides in November the sunspot number was higher than in
June 2009 in October 2008 (2.9) and in May 2009 (2.9). So the 12 month activity
can be described as: ---++

---

+. No trend so far."
The upshot of this is that there has no indication that the new cycle is about to start. One needs to know that as solar cycles drag on, the likelyhood becomes greater that the next cycle will be weaker. That translates to a cooler climate.

The following is interesting, as Timo says, because the previous cycle although not extraordinary had a much stronger build up than the new cycle #24. Here he describes the differences.
"It is interesting to note that during the previous cycle change 22/23 in 1996
there were only two months with SSN below 3 (September and October 1996). During
the on-going minimum there has been already 17 months below 3, 3 in 2007, 8 in
2008 and all 6 thus far in 2009 (i.e. all 2009 numbers up (until) today)."
What is being discussed next is the magnetic flux or intensity which is a strong indicator of climate. The 11 years is significant in that it is the mean of the solar cycle length. A curious point here is that few cycles are ever 11 years long but are either longer or shorter. Not sure why that is but it is curious. What he is saying is that during the previous cycle's minimum in 1995 and 1996, the magnetic flux was the same as the value 11 years later , at a time when the new cycle should be thinking of getting underway. However, at that point the divergence between the two cycles became evident. Cycle #24 is coming in like a lamb.
"The 10.7 cm fluxes of the sunspots were nearly equal at a distance of 11 years
in 1995-1996 versus 2006-2007:
1995 77 / 2006 80
1996 72 / 2007 73 (1996 was minimum between cycles 22/23)
And so began a dramatic separation in the solar magnetic flux. The cycle 23
began with vengeance in 1997, but the cycle 24 did not in 2008. In fact the
first and almost only decent spots in October-November 2008 did not affect the
flux, which in fact made its all-time (since late 1940's when first measured)
low in November-December 2008".
The number list that follows shows that 1997 and 2008 show a significantly lower intensity for the current minimum. Around 30% lower.
Here we find that we have to go back to some pretty cold times to find a similar solar pattern. The calculation of length of the current cycle #23 comes from the fact that you can only tell when a cycle is over, when the spots associated with the new cycle overpower the spots with the old cycle. Old cycle sunspots are observed near the solar equator whereas the new cycle sunspots are in the mid to high latitude areas (like Montreal on Earth) and are of opposite polarity magnetically.

"The yearly spot value of 2007 was already only 7.6 which is below the previous
minimum in 1996 (with 8.6). The value dropped to 2.6 in 2008 and the smoothed
value at the moment is 1.7 (December 2008). (In December 2007 it was 5.0 .) We
must go to the year 1913 to find a lower smoothed value (1.5). The November 2008
value means that the cycle 23 has at least a length of 12.6 years.
There has been only 2 cycles since 1749 longer than the cycle 23, the cycle 4
(1784-1798) just before the Dalton minimum and the cycle 6 (1810-1823 or the
second of the Dalton cycles). The cycle 9 (1843-1856) had about the same length
as we have now achieved (12.5 years). It began the series of 5 Jovian (Jupiter) cycles and
a cool climate in 1856-1913 (the Damon minimum)".

I won't go into all the details here, but the IPCC looks at solar irradiance as the only factor that determines the Sun's ability to warm the Earth's climate. If you count them up here, there are many other factors to be considered and they are all at an extreme low compared to our recent past. "Recent" is a relative term not indicating the past 10 or 20 years.
"Now what do we have:

1. Livingston-Penn observations that the magnetic strength
of the sunspots irrespective of their amount has linearly declined since at
least 1990 leading the spots vanishing in 2014 or 2015 if the trend continues.

2. A 50-year low in solar wind pressure: Measurements by the Ulysses spacecraft
reveal a 20% drop in solar wind pressure since the mid-1990's.

3. A 12 year low
in solar irradiance: the sun's brightness has dropped a whopping 6% at extreme
UV wavelengths since the solar minimum of 1996.

4. A 55-year low in solar radio
wavelengths. The lessening of radio emissions seems to be an indication of
weakness in the sun's global magnetic field.

5. The all-time low (since Maunder
minimum) of Gleissberg cycle in 2005 (72 years).

6. Ap Index very low.

7. TSI
(Total Solar Irradiance) at its lowest since satellite observations began in
1979 (1365 Watts)".

So here we start to get to the meat of the report. If you look at the data, there appears to be a cycle of 210 years at work here. This, by the way, is an often repeated cycle length for the Sun which has many cycles of various lengths.

"Autocorrelation of the sunspots since 1760 gives the highest correlation as 210
years.

The Dalton minimum began in 1798".
Remember Dalton means, "Coooooold, Brrrr! Then we have this:
"The yearly sunspot numbers of 1795-1798 were 21, 16, 6.4 and 4.1,


corresponding values for 2005-2008 were 30, 15, 7.6 and 2.8.

The first full
Dalton year or 1799, had a SSN value of 6.8.

The SSN of the first 6 months of
2009 is 1.7".

The progressions illustrate that there is a similarity between the years prior to the Dalton, and the minimum leading up to the cycle #24 but lower than those leading up to the Dalton.
Next is an interesting list of Climatic periods in our past on Earth, all of which correlate with solar parameters at the time. Folks back then recorded a tremendous amount of information about the Sun and there were also proxy measurements available.

"Well, there was the 300-year Roman Optimum in 100 BC to AD 200, the 200-year
oscillation 200-900 (200 cold, 300 warm, 400 cold, 600-900 cold), the 300-year
Medieval Optimum 900-1200 (with some colder spells plus warm aftermaths), the
300-year Little Ice Age 1400-1700, the 300-year "Global Warming" 1700-2005 (with
some drawbacks especially in the 1800's). A NEW LIA WITH SPÖRER AND MAUNDER IN
2005-2300???"
That's 300 years of cold, in case you missed it! The Maunder minimum was the bottom of the Little Ice Age from which all IPCC temperature charts begin. That is because it was coldest then and makes the warming look worse. Had they started their charts during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) we would be wondering why it is still so cool. Like when are we going to get to the good stuff.
And then we get the punch line:

"THE CYCLE 24 HAS NOW GONE CLEARLY BELOW DALTON LEVEL."

This is pretty strong evidence. Had you been reading these reports for a few years you would have seen that Timo has been very conservative in his predictions. His earlier predictions were much less severe but trust me, you would be a lot happier with global warming than you will be with a Maunder type solar event.



Posting links of his studies on this subject,far too much info to put on here

http://personal.inet.fi/tiede/tilmari/sunspots.html

http://www.tilmari.pp.fi/tilmari6.htm

http://personal.inet.fi/tiede/tilmari/sunspot8.html


http://personal.inet.fi/tiede/tilmari/sunspot5.html#some200

Redsunset

Has cycle 24 suddenly got out of bed? there are now two sunspots and that has not happened in over a year.

rc28

redsunset wrote: »

Has cycle 24 suddenly got out of bed? there are now two sunspots and that has not happened in over a year.

Two main active areas, someone on NW says there are now 12 sunspots but I don't know how they've counted that many.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/33760-solar-and-aurora-activity-chat/page__st__1275

Redsunset

The Sunspot Number
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]S[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]cientists track solar cycles by counting sunspots -- cool planet-sized areas on the Sun where intense magnetic loops poke through the star's visible surface.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Counting sunspots is not as straightforward as it sounds. Suppose you looked at the Sun through a pair of (properly filtered) low power binoculars -- you might be able to see two or three large spots. An observer peering through a high-powered telescope might see 10 or 20. A powerful space-based observatory could see even more -- say, 50 to 100. Which is the correct sunspot number?[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]There are two official sunspot numbers in common use. The first, the daily "Boulder Sunspot Number," is computed by the NOAA Space Environment Center using a formula devised by Rudolph Wolf in 1848: [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]R=k (10g+s), [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]where R is the sunspot number; g[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] is the number of sunspot groups on the solar disk; s is the total number of individual spots in all the groups; and k is a variable scaling factor (usually <1) that accounts for observing conditions and the type of telescope (binoculars, space telescopes, etc.). Scientists combine data from lots of observatories -- each with its own k factor -- to arrive at a daily value.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
Above: International sunspot numbers from 1745 to the present. URL="http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/solar/sunspots.htm"][COLOR=#0066cc]more[/COLOR][/URL[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Boulder number (reported daily on SpaceWeather.com) is usually about 25% higher than the second official index, the "International Sunspot Number," published daily by the Solar Influences Data Center in Belgium. Both the Boulder and the International numbers are calculated from the same basic formula, but they incorporate data from different observatories.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As a rule of thumb, if you divide either of the official sunspot numbers by 15, you'll get the approximate number of individual sunspots visible on the solar disk if you look at the Sun by projecting its image on a paper plate with a small telescope.[/FONT]

Redsunset

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2009 Sep 22 2201 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical ActivitySDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2009IA.

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Zto 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There were two x-rayevents during the past 24 hours, a B3 at 1057Z and a B4 at 2041Z.Both of these events originated from Region 1026 (S29E57) which hasrotated into view as a small, C-type sunspot group with a simplebeta magnetic configuration.

Region 1027 (N24E31) emerged on thedisk today and appears to be a small D-type region in a simple betamagnetic configuration.IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be verylow for the next three days (23-25 September). There is a slightchance for an isolated C-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field isexpected to be quiet for the next three days (23-25 September).

Redsunset

http://personal.inet.fi/tiede/tilmari/sunspots.html

28 Sept. 09 Sunspot 1026 is fading away and may be gone by the end of the day. Photo credit: SOHO/MDI


Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2009 total: 212 days (79%)
Since 2004: 723 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days

Redsunset

my friend joe b talks very sensibly about this


http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=39454465001&channel=VBLOG_BASTARDI&title=Some Extra Post

Redsunset

oh and the sun is back to being blank again.

02 Oct. 09 The sun is blank--no sunspots

Redsunset

"In 2009, cosmic ray intensities have increased 19% beyond anything we've seen in the past 50 years," says Richard Mewaldt of Caltech. "The increase is significant, and the cause of the surge is solar minimum, a deep lull in solar activity that began around 2007 and continues today.


Researchers have long known that cosmic rays go up when solar activity goes down. Right now solar activity is as weak as it has been in modern times, setting the stage for what Mewaldt calls "a perfect storm of cosmic rays."

read all about cosmic rays and their possible effect on creating more cloud in previous post number 43
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055544236&page=3

Redsunset

This cosmic ray debate makes alot of interesting sense,


Beryllium-10 is an isotope that is a proxy for the sun’s activity. Be10 is produced in the atmosphere by cosmic ray collisions with atoms of oxygen and nitrogen. Beryllium 10 concentrations are linked to cosmic ray intensity which can be a proxy for solar strength.

One way to capture earth’s record of that proxy data is to drill deep ice cores. Greenland, due to having a large and relatively stable deep ice sheet is often the target for drilling ice cores.

Isotopic analysis of the ice in the core can be linked to temperature and global sea level variations. Analysis of the air contained in bubbles in the ice can reveal the palaeocomposition of the atmosphere, in particular CO2 variations. Volcanic eruptions leave identifiable ash layers.



Plotted up and annotated, the Dye 3 B10 data shows the strong relationship between solar activity and climate. Instead of wading through hundreds of papers for evidence of the Sun’s influence on terrestrial climate, all you have to do is look at this graph.



All the major climate minima are evident in the Be10 record, and the cold period at the end of the 19th century. This graph alone demonstrates that the warming of the 20th century was solar-driven.

The end of the Little Ice Age corresponded with a dramatic decrease in the rate of production of Be10, due to fewer galactic cosmic rays getting into the inner planets of the solar system. Fewer galactic cosmic rays got into the inner planets because the solar wind got stronger. The solar wind got stronger because the Sun’s magnetic field got stronger, as measured by the aa Index from 1868.
From john-daly.com

Thus the recent fall of aa Index and Ap Index to lows never seen before in living memory is of considerable interest. This reminds me of a line out of Aliens: “Stay frosty people!” Well, we won’t have any choice – it will get frosty.

The Ap magentic index to the end of 2008



so to cap in my own words, THE MORE COSMIC RAYS YOU HAVE ,THE MORE B 10 THERE IS,AS HIGHLIGHTED AT THE TIME OF THE 3 SOLAR MINIMUMS ON CHART,NOW THATS INTERESTING.

Redsunset

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 6 days
2009 total: 218 days (78%)
Since 2004: 729 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days

blank sun.


i was worried that solar cycle 24 was waking up but she only rolled over in the bed.thats it back to sleep oh great one:D

Redsunset

Solar update: 223 sunspot free days in 2009



The sun is back to its “quiet” ways after a short burst of activity in late September. The most intense solar flux (10.7cm) reading of the past 18 months was logged during the last week of September, but this “spike” lasted only a few days, and it just as quickly returned to the low levels of the past several years.

As of October 12, there have been 223 sunspot-free days in 2009, ranking it 6th since 1900 in “blank” days. In 2008, there were 266 sunspot-free days.

If 56% or more of the remaining days in 2009 are sunspot free, then 2009 will replace 2008 as the second highest blank year since 1900.
What does all of this mean? It means that the deepest solar minimum in modern times (since 1900) continues, with no clear trend of consistent increased activity over the past six months. Rather, there have been several brief increases in sunspot activity followed by very long quiet periods in between.

This again suggests that the sun has yet to conclusively begin a climb out of this unusually long solar slow-down.

silverharp

Been reading the thread, good one btw , David Archibald has a lecture on youtube , 4 parts , 1st attached

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbAe_g41Zl4