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local elections 2009!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  • 22-04-2009 12:05am
    #1
    Daragh101
    Closed Accounts Posts: 585 ✭✭✭


    which party or whom will prove its point???????????/


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    #2
    ParkRunner
    Registered Users Posts: 3,032 ✭✭✭ParkRunner


    Id vote for Labour, but for Burton. With any luck the independents will come strong


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    #3
    Charles Haughey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8 ✭Charles Haughey


    Sinn fein are actually doing better than they used to. God, wouldnt mind throwing some money on them!


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    #4
    oscarBravo
    Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,804 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    Daragh101 wrote: »
    which party or whom will prove its point???????????/
    What do you think?


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    #5
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users Posts: 13,441 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    EF wrote: »
    With any luck the independents will come strong

    Why, out of interest?
    Is it because of your anger towards the main parties, or do you see independents being elected as being generally a good thing?
    And its really a bit strange to just cheer for independents per se, like what if all the independents are elected on platforms diametrically opposed to your core beliefs?

    Personally most of the single issue independents annoy me at Dail level and would love to see more of the 4/5 seater constituencies reduced to 3 seaters to reduce their influence(though I can just about see more of a case for them in local elections).


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    #6
    Darragh29
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,097 ✭✭✭Darragh29


    I don't know how this guy plans on getting elected...

    http://garretttubridy.ie/


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    #7
    Mr.Micro
    Registered Users Posts: 5,336 ✭✭✭Mr.Micro


    I believe that mostly the same people will get back in. Its what the local CC does added to the personality and national politics will have little impact. Most of the CC in this County have been there for 10 to 20 years, only being replaced when they died. One or 2 others went to the Dail at the last election.


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    #8
    joolsveer
    Registered Users Posts: 2,297 ✭✭✭joolsveer


    EF wrote: »
    Id vote for Labour, but for Burton. With any luck the independents will come strong

    I don't think that Joan Burton will be a candidate in the local elections.


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    #9
    lostexpectation
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,082 ✭✭✭lostexpectation


    one of the bigs issue in my constituency is oversized infill developements, every sitting councillor and new candidate, has been lobbying to knock a floor off and make them smaller, from fg to ff to lab to sp to ind, so who will people vote for?

    the big parties and the people they always have voted for i suspect. ho hum

    (ff lobbying against developers with no sense of irony)


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    #10
    Daragh101
    Closed Accounts Posts: 585 ✭✭✭Daragh101


    reckon brian cowen laying off some junior ministers may be just as much for publicity than anything?


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    #11
    Sully
    Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators, Regional South East Moderators Posts: 24,056 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sully


    Darragh29 wrote: »
    I don't know how this guy plans on getting elected...

    http://garretttubridy.ie/

    At first I thought that was a take the piss website. Thats Ryan Tubridys brother I assume. Looks very young, strange hairstyle.

    Wonder did he pay for the website himself? Looks like it cost a fair few.


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    #12
    ParkRunner
    Registered Users Posts: 3,032 ✭✭✭ParkRunner


    ArmaniJeanss wrote: »
    Why, out of interest?
    Is it because of your anger towards the main parties, or do you see independents being elected as being generally a good thing?
    And its really a bit strange to just cheer for independents per se, like what if all the independents are elected on platforms diametrically opposed to your core beliefs?

    Personally most of the single issue independents annoy me at Dail level and would love to see more of the 4/5 seater constituencies reduced to 3 seaters to reduce their influence(though I can just about see more of a case for them in local elections).

    The reason why I favour independents is because I feel too many decisions are taken for political reasons rather than for the greater good. In the future I would be really interested to see a government mostly consisting of independent TD's, who are not resticted by party policies or outside vested interests.


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    #13
    Darragh29
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,097 ✭✭✭Darragh29


    Sully wrote: »
    At first I thought that was a take the piss website. Thats Ryan Tubridys brother I assume. Looks very young, strange hairstyle.

    Wonder did he pay for the website himself? Looks like it cost a fair few.

    I have to laugh, if you watch his Podcast or video blog or whatever it is, he says, "hi there, we've been out canvassing all week and the issues we are hearing about on the doorstep are: Speed ramps, green spaces and community centres".

    Now this guy is a Fianna Fail candidate, and is he trying to tell me that nobody is turning around and telling him to his face that the party he is involved with are a shower of useless w*nkers???


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    #14
    bcirl03
    Registered Users Posts: 484 ✭✭bcirl03


    Darragh29 wrote: »
    I have to laugh, if you watch his Podcast or video blog or whatever it is, he says, "hi there, we've been out canvassing all week and the issues we are hearing about on the doorstep are: Speed ramps, green spaces and community centres".

    Now this guy is a Fianna Fail candidate, and is he trying to tell me that nobody is turning around and telling him to his face that the party he is involved with are a shower of useless w*nkers???

    I laughed when I saw that too - I know what I'll be saying to them and it wont be anything about speed ramps ;)


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    #15
    Pride Fighter
    Registered Users Posts: 5,729 ✭✭✭Pride Fighter


    I needed a chuckle and I got it looking at Tubridy's website. I'll have a stab at predictions.

    04 Results from http://electionsireland.org/results/local/2004local.cfm

    FF 302
    FG 293
    Labour 101
    SF 54
    PD 19
    GP 18
    SP 4
    Others and Independents 92


    09 Results, my guess

    FG 330
    FF 230
    Labour 170
    SF 65
    GP 10
    SP 5
    Others and Independents, the rest


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    #16
    Het-Field
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,350 ✭✭✭Het-Field


    Pride Fighter wrote: »
    I needed a chuckle and I got it looking at Tubridy's website. I'll have a stab at predictions.

    04 Results from http://electionsireland.org/results/local/2004local.cfm

    FF 302
    FG 293
    Labour 101
    SF 54
    PD 19
    GP 18
    SP 4
    Others and Independents 92


    09 Results, my guess

    FG 330
    FF 230
    Labour 170
    SF 65
    GP 10
    SP 5
    Others and Independents, the rest

    I think a huge swing could go towards a variety of independents.

    Where FF will lose is on second and third seats.People who marginally lost out in 2004 will also get beaten. There will always be a quota for them in most areas, but that is not enough to maintain their council majority. I could see them losing another 50 seats, which will entail 130 council seats lost since 1999.

    Fine Gael will be default electees, and will be keeping their heads down, while quietly canvassing, and not saying too much. It is their's to lose. They will pick up a strong vote

    Labour dont have the national infrastructure to benefit from their rising tide. But they will do very very well with the candidates they do have

    Sinn Fein will pick up some interesting seats, and as Pride Fighter pointed out they could have a swing of 10 or 12 seats.

    The Socialist Party will increase by one. Alternatively, it will hold its current mantel. Higgins is a shoo-in in Castleknock. The extra seat will be down to the ability of Ruth Coppinger to hold.

    The Greens wont suffer the meltdown (In terms of seat loss) that most expect. But many of their candidates will be slaughtered. I can see them losing between 2-4 seats (eg Tony McDermott, who now sits in the new Crumlin/Kimmage ward, without the benefit of the small Dublin South Green bases which were enjoyed in Terenure/Rathfarnham).

    I know that a variety of PDs (still in existence) are running as Independents. Examples of these include former TD Mae Sexton, and Former Councellor Victor Boyhan. These are two seats I suspect will be won. So for all intents and purposes, I put the soon to be defunct PDs at 2 seats.

    The body of independents could prove to have a fairly strong performance. this time round. Those dissatisfied with the party system, and the offerings of the major organisations will vote independent.

    Europe will be just as telling. With seat reductions now in place, and the entrance of Libertas to the race (an openly conservative party), we could have exciting times ahead.

    Dublin will see the return of Mitchell and De Rossa. Polls suggest that Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail will fight to the death for the last seat. Libertas votes are likely to transfer to the Europsceptic Sinn Fein, while the Greens will possibly transfer to their coalition partners, however, I would expect Labour to be served well by Green Transfers.

    Apparently, the People's Movemement will stand Patricia McKenna, and controversial Lawyer Giovanni Di Stefano will stand as and Independent. Along with Joe Higgins, much of the protest, and lefty anti-lisbon vote will be directed here, with Libertas, Sinn Fein and Labour to benefit off the small transfers here.

    Nessa Chiders entrance into the Leinster race will shake things up. Labour have rarely been able to find a credible candidate, now they have. Raymond O Malley (Libertas) could draw an interesting vote from the farmers. The IFA, and most farmers groups have been up in arms with the EU, and may see this as being in their interests. McGuniess and Aylward will probably hang on, leaving the JP Phelan (FG candidate), and Libertas to fight it out for the third seat.

    The South will see one FGer (Kelly or Burke) returned. However, the other one will be involved in the shake up for the third seat. Crowley is the safest FF seat in the country. Sinnott, O Keefe (FF),a nd the 2nd Fger will fight the battle for the last seat. It will all depend on the next 8 weeks how people will vote in this case. Ferris and Boyle are going to contribute to the race, but that will mainly be to do with transfers

    The North East is a crazy constituecy at the moment. It has a wonderfully diverse group of people from Marian Harkin (Liberal), Declan Ganley (Conservative), and then the major partys all contesting this area. This will be a graveyard for Labour. They have any history here, and nothing would suggest this will change. O Neachtain's departure has seen FF scamper for a new candidate, which doesnt seem to be forthcoming as of now. Sinn Fein could be the chief benefactors of this, with Donegal likely to team up with it. Jim Higgins will maintain his seat, with Marian Harkin going close. Ganley, Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein will go at it for the final seat, with FF proabably taking it


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