Criminal Justice (Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2009

Sparks

From the Irish Times:

Handgun culture increasing in the State, says Deasy
MICHAEL O'REGAN

CURRENT LICENSING laws could mean 10,000 legally held handguns in the State over the next five years, John Deasy (FG) told the Dáil.

“I believe society does not want that,’’ he added.

“It is right to bring some practicality and reality into this debate.’’ Mr Deasy was speaking during the resumed debate on the Criminal Justice (Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill which bans new licences for handguns, except those used for Olympic sports.

He said that those who argued that there was no handgun culture, or that the Dáil was treating gun and shooting clubs harshly, or that people should have a right to buy and keep as many handguns as they pleased, should explain how the increased proliferation of handguns and the liberalisation of the law would not harm society.

He added: “The onus is on them to convince me, my colleagues, the Garda and the majority of the public, how more of these weapons could possibly be of any benefit to anyone besides their owners.

“I agree with the sentiment that we have arrived at this point, not because of any public policy decision, but because of legal challenges, court decisions which have had the practical effect, intended or not, of liberalising the laws relating to handgun ownership.

“That is why we need to provide clarity and deal with a situation that was never the objective, aim or purpose of this legislature.’’ Mr Deasy said that 579 new licences were issued last year.

“There is a handgun culture which has grown rapidly, as the figures prove,’’ he added.

“Interestingly, the figures from November 2008, when the Minister announced the ban, are much lower, month-for-month.’’ That trend, said Mr Deasy, seemed to have continued into this year. In the first four months, 81 handgun licences were issued, while 215 had been issued for the corresponding period last year.

“It is clear that some superintendents around the country have stopped issuing these licences pending legislative clarity,’’ he added.

Mr Deasy said that gardaí in his constituency had referred him to a robbery in which the robbers left the shotgun and rifle but took the handgun.

The members of the 40-odd gun clubs might be of good character, but the more handguns licensed meant more making their way into the hands of criminals, he added.

ancienthunter

Mr deasy is implying that legally held firearms are going to be used with the intent for

from dictionary
weapon : " A offensive/defensive Tool for use against an opponent, adversary, or victim"

quote Mr deasy
“The onus is on them to convince me, my colleagues, the Garda and the majority of the public, how more of these weapons could possibly be of any benefit to anyone besides their owners"

Maybe Mr deasy would retract the use of the word "weapon" if he were talking in court, when the use of the word in this instance implies that legally held firearms would/or will be used for ilegal activities.

It is ilegal because a licence was granted to you and this man is making up lies ilegally to get your licence that was legally granted to you, removed.
Anyone with a pistol should be able to take that to court, I think anyway, Its only just.

Sparks

Problem is ah, he said it in the Dail. So it's privileged and you can't sue him for it.
If he said it about any specific person outside the Dail, they could have his house in the libel lawsuit - but he'd have to identify them specifically (libel against a group is nearly impossible to prosecute).

ancienthunter

It doesnt have to be a group, just one license holder. don't know about the dail, we could be watching and waiting though, he will slip up, or someone will, probally in the next 30 seconds at any rate.

don't know it should be if its not like that

rrpc

I know I shouldn't get annoyed when politicians tell lies or simply obscure the truth, but I do.

He added: “The onus is on them to convince me, my colleagues, the Garda and the majority of the public, how more of these weapons could possibly be of any benefit to anyone besides their owners.

When does anyone have to prove that their personal possessions are of benefit to anyone other than themselves?

“I agree with the sentiment that we have arrived at this point, not because of any public policy decision, but because of legal challenges, court decisions which have had the practical effect, intended or not, of liberalising the laws relating to handgun ownership.

Another discredited statement or an admission that Deasy was asleep from 2004 to 2007 when the then Minister for Justice introduced two separate amendments to the firearms acts which were debated at length in the Dail. Dermot Ahern obviously wasn't present for any of those debates either.

Grizzly 45

"It is right to bring some practicality and reality to this debate."...HA! Thats a good one!!Especially from that law breaking ignoramus!:mad:

hk

The Following email was sent to Enda Kenny on the inflamatory comments made by John Deasy and the inconsistancies in party policy. Please feel free to copy ammend and do like wise.

hk wrote: »

Dear Mr Kenny,The current state of afairs within the country has lead me, like many others to look very closely at who I will be voting for in the up coming elections. Receintly I have taken the time to review FG economic and justice policy as these are the areas of most importance to me, furthermore I have been very much impressed with the support members of your party, particularly Mr Flanagan has given my sport of competative pistol target shooting. However, and I never expected to say this, I am strongly considering voting Labour during the forth comming election. I along with many of my fellow competitors, their familys and friends are particularly tired of Mr John Deasy's persistant attack on our sport. I will not vote for FG if the party has such dissenting voices, who are completely inconsistant with the views of the party spokesperson on the subject. Furthermore Mr Deasy is at best incorrect or at worst fabricating truths to further his adgenda. The law was not changed in 2004, there has been no liberlising of firearms leglislation, rather the leglislation was again strengthened in the 2006 act. The judicial decision in 2004 removed a temporary custody order issued in the seventies (which was only supposed to last a matter of weeks), this temporary custody order was deemed to be illegal. Most people in this country were unaware that there were licienced pistols in the country prior to Mr Deasy's scaremongering which has led to the ministers current proposed leglislation. The following statement by Mr Deasy to the press has left me seriously wondering how I can ever vote for FG again, “The onus is on them to convince me, my colleagues, the Garda and the majority of the public, how more of these weapons could possibly be of any benefit to anyone besides their owners". Since when does anybody have to justify how their posessions are of benifit to others? I will not be voting FG anymore and will be advising all my family, friends and collegues to do likewise until such time as members of FG, particularly those holding seats in the Dail, are no longer permitted to conduct solo runs in the press, making false and inflamitory statement contrary to those made by more senior members of the party.Sir, I respectfully call on you to provide the necessary leadership for the party and regin in renegade party members. There are approx 250,000 firearms holders in this country all with friends and family, the oportunity is there for FG to champion their cause. I for one will not be voting FG in any forth comming elections until such time as Mr Deasy is taken to hand. Respectfully,xxxxxxxxA Former FG voter and supporter.

BornToKill

ancienthunter wrote: »

Anyone with a pistol should be able to take that to court, I think anyway

Sorry but I disagree. Apart from Oireachtas privilege, I honestly can't see how a libel case could be constructed and won based on what he said. At no point does he mention licensed handgun owners doing anything wrong. On the contrary, he specifically mentions the danger of robbers. You mightn't - don't - like it but it's not libellous.

rrpc

It's amusing to look back on the Dail debates for the CJA 2006 and note who was present and spoke on the subjects. Even more instructive is the fact that pistol ownership was discussed openly and at some length during the debates with none of the shock-horror expressed by Deasy above.

The real kicker is that on the 28th June 2006, the self same John Deasy voted in favour of an amendment put forward by Brendan Howlin on foot of an email from our very own Sparks!

Needless to say the amendment was rejected, but basically it was asking for the right of reply to the Minister declaring something restricted.

PJ Hunter

PJ Hunter wrote: »

It's Joe Carey (Claire).

Saying he agrees with the Minister about gun culture, doesn't want to have the NRA in Ireland because of school shootings. It's Joe Carey (Claire).

"NRA in Ireland because of school shootings":eek: lucky this statement was under the protection of the dail, talk about linkage, is it NRA or some other faction altogeather he talks, long ways off the mc'dowells restricted list.

offend the yanks while there at it as well, feck the Olympic 2012 and what shooting tourist will want to come here why bother when they can go up north.

googled NRA http://www.nsc-bisley.co.uk/common/asp/links/links.asp?site=NSC

national rifle associations are in countries all over the world (NRA)
house of commons civil service and police teams in the uk are members of nra bisley on grounds the size of the phoenix park, gardai are members of shooting teams here too. are shooting sports associations now branded as agents of gun culture.

any dail politicians members of clubs and associations who can be contacted:(

http://www.cssctsa.org.uk/

lykoris

I've previously made this point but would really like to reiterate it given the constant and extremely misleading perception that Ireland has or will have a 'gun culture'....

if their reasoning is transferred to every other EU country (except GB), then the entire EU currently has a gun culture in line with the U.S. Evidently this simply is not true although there are easily over 1m legally registered handguns throughout the EU in the hands of citizens.

"the EU system of buying and then notifying the government you bought a class C/D firearm is unacceptable. "

I'd like to know where this comes from

Every EU country requires you to apply to add your intended firearm to your existing license before you can buy a legally registered firearm - if you are buying from abroad you require an import license before you can proceed with buying a firearm from another EU country. Your European Firearms Passport also has to be approved in transit countries if you drive to pick it up yourself. The exception was Switzerland(non-EU) and their second hand market, due to the Swiss accepting the Schengen agreement it has since changed and this now requires a license.

The E.U. and all of its members have already passed a directive for an EU wide registration database for all legally registered firearms....this is already in effect with a deadline of 2010 I believe.

A projected forecast of 100,000 legally registered handguns within 10 years makes for great headlines but even if true in no way is it representative as a single owner could have 4-5. Here, the minimum people have is three handguns...average here is 4-6, same across the border in a French club I shoot at.

This idea of banning handguns in the hope of preventing a shooting spree is an idea that has not yet been adopted by any other European country except GB(on a separate note the ban didn't have any positive effect on handgun crime which has risen considerably since 1997).

I just find this all so hard to believe that literally hundreds of thousands of people across the E.U. shoot handguns every weekend and Europe has very few shooting spree incidents over the past decades.

To put it into context Luxembourg has never had a single shooting spree incident and ownership of firearms is extremely high and we can buy anything we want including

- fully functional & automatic military rifles e.g. MP5-SD
- all semi-auto rifles regardless of how they look or their size e.g. Uzi, AK-47, AR-15, Sig550s etc. etc.
- all accessories e.g. moderators to attach to them, foldable buttstocks etc.
- any handgun we want from an FN baby up to a Deagle or S&W500mag
- .50bmg rifles - any of the barrett line etc. I'm thinking of getting a Steyr HS-50 actually if I can find a closer 1,000 yard range in Germany.

How is it possible? Well we haven't had an incident because the vetting process is extremely strict but it is less stringent than the current Irish system.

I'm just in disbelief that this narrow mindedness persists within the ROI media/political circle - handguns are evil etc.

and I was born and lived in the ROI the first 23 years of my life until I left after my studies so I'm not an ignorant foreigner with no idea of what you guys are facing.

I just find it terribly sad how inaccurate the press and politicians in the ROI are making out that somehow you have a 'gun culture' with a couple of thousand legally registered handguns.

it's simply one of the most absurd ideas I have heard within the context of proposed firearms legislation.

sorry, rant off

Sikamick

Quote: ancienthunter: from dictionary
weapon : " A offensive/defensive Tool for use against an opponent, adversary, or victim"
________________________________________________________________

If Mr.Deasy / Ahern applies this logic to the Road Traffic Act then (it) should be include in the Criminal Justice Bill. The Car is as lethal as any gun, there used in crime every day of the week, most robberies/murders that involve firearms also involve the use of some sort of vehicle.

The car owner is not required to have his/her car locked in a garage when not in use, does not have the ridiculous draconian rules enforced on them that firearms holders have. You can have a criminal record and get a driving license.

Car type, engine size is not restricted to who can own a particular type, if Deasy / Ahern were to apply their way of thinking to the Road Traffic Act, then we would all be driving around in a one litre cars.

The moral of the story is that the shooting Fraternity is a minority, if they tried to do similar with the motorist they would be up in arms (excuse the pun).

Quote P J Hunter : any dail politicians members of clubs and associations who can be contacted. Our Honorary President for life is an MEP.

Re Club Membership, Our Club is made up of Garda. Retired Garda, Military, Retired Military, Firemen, Retired Firemen and civilians, are all these Law Abiding People to now be tarred with the criminal brush?

In Relation to the Government pushing for people to vote for the Lisbon Treaty and all the benefits that it is supposed to bring, then we as Europeans should also benefit in kind to what is common in other European countries in relation to their firearms Laws.

Should we now be contacting our MEP'S who are up for reelection and have them lobby on our behalf.



Sikamick

kakashka

IMO at this stage the only way to fight lies is with lies!!
CJB shotgun ban imminent,
Any tabloid would do.
See how brave they are when every farmer in the country turnes on them..

Sparks

lykoris wrote: »

"the EU system of buying and then notifying the government you bought a class C/D firearm is unacceptable. "
I'd like to know where this comes from

From several EU member states like France where if you buy a class C/D firearm you're only required to notify the government within two weeks (I believe there's some form of initial licence) and from states like the UK where any airgun under 12 ft/lb isn't a firearm and so on and so forth.

if you are buying from abroad you require an import license before you can proceed with buying a firearm from another EU country

Only if you're a firearms dealer looking to import it - if you're a private individual buying your own firearm for which you have an Irish licence already, it's a different story.

A projected forecast of 100,000 legally registered handguns within 10 years

10,000 not 100,000.

kakashka wrote: »

IMO at this stage the only way to fight lies is with lies!!

Really bad idea IMO because it's too easy for it to backfire badly.
Besides, the point that the Irish Government, while pushing for Lisbon 2, is drafting legislation that is contrary to the very core of EU law, that's a newspaper story for you.

kakashka

I guess your right Sparks,although i'm not sure if it can get much worse..can only hope for a change of Gov,not that it would solve but might be put on hold,
Or rushed through on last legs as with so many other bills!!
Legislation Contrary to EU Law..dont get me started on that one:mad::mad::mad:,those things never reach the papers!!

Sparks

Sent to the letters page of the Times:

Dear Madam,
I read with incredulity the article on Deputy Deasy's many false
statements in the Dail with regard to the proposed new amendments to
the Firearms Acts.

Every licenced firearms holder in Ireland has been personally certified
by a Superintendent in the Gardai as being safe to own a firearm, that
their having that firearm constitutes no threat to the public safety,
nor to the peace. Yet the Deputy would have us believe that we are an
imminent threat to both. Are we to believe hundreds of high-ranking
members of the Gardai, or the word of the Deputy?

He further wishes us to prove to him and the Gardai that our licenced
firearms are of benefit to people other than ourselves. I'd like to
ask him what other group in society is so required to prove that
personal property is of benefit to people other than its owners? We
have proven our firearms are not harmful to others with 168 years of
target shooting in Ireland without injury; and with many medals won
for Ireland in international shooting matches up to and including the
Olympics, I believe we could prove that we are of benefit to others
inasmuch as any sport can do so; but surely being required to do so is
unfair? Do we not live in a country where any activity that breaks no
law and harms no person is an activity that all citizens can freely
engage in?

One must wonder - if the Deputy is so concerned with the licencing of
pistols for target shooting sports; and was - as he himself claims in
the Dail - so ignorant of their status in Ireland as being licenceable;
and is - as he claims - of the belief that no public policy decision
has ever been made on the licencing of handguns: was he then asleep
when he spoke in the debate on the 2006 Criminal Justice Act when
the licencing of handguns was debated in the Dail chamber?

And since he voted at that time to oppose the then Minister for
Justice's proposed amendments to the Firearms Acts, can we ask if his
apparent change of heart is due to being on the road to Damascus or on
due to being the road to publicity for an imminent election?

Yours in Sport,

PJ Hunter

who to vote for, won't be bothered after next week's vote is cast.:(

http://www.runningwithbulls.com/temp/files/data-retention/irish-meps.pdf

daveob007

After reading all this stuff I have come up with the following conclusions.
The minister is dertermined to push this,regardless of what we and others think.
John Deasy is not doing us any favours at all but only adding to the ministers ill informed judgement,maybe he should join ff instead then he can also keep playing the scratched record.
Pat rabbitte sees sense in what we are saying and kinda supports us,as does Charles Flanagan.
The garda commissioner is on the ministers side.
The public in general believe the rubbish and scaremongering being put around by the media.
We are a minority and so is our sport.
All in all it looks like we have a real battle on our hands here and I cant really see things going our way.
Hopefully i am wrong.
I am quiet sure that if some of the members of FFs golden circle (you all know who I mean bankers,property developers,judges,senior medical people,investors etc) were involved in our sport then we would be looked after very well indeed.
Maybe anyone who earns more than 100,000 a year will be given new licences.
My thought for the day.

lykoris

In France, even if you have a hunting/target shooting license (permis de chasse/permis de tir sportif) you can't walk in pay and walk out with a .22lr from a gunsmith because if that was the case you could go to 100 different gunsmiths and buy 100 rifles/shotguns.

And they have very strict rules on the number of rimfire/centerfire firearms you can own.

My main shooting club is across the border in France and most of my shooting friends are French.
http://www.eurostand-lorraine.fr/

Sparks

Nevertheless, the EU requirement is just notification for class C firearms. Individual member states have more flexibility though:

It is important to remember that Directive 91/477/EEC is a minimum harmonisation directive, i.e. it allows all the Member States to adopt stricter measures, provided of course they comply with the rules of the Treaty, in particular the principles of proportionality and subsidiarity.

As regards the minimum classification of weapons contained in Annex I to the Directive, this means that all Member States can "upgrade" a weapon in their internal legislation, in other words they can raise it from category C (subject to declaration) to category B (subject to authorisation), or from category B to category A (prohibited weapons). It also means that if a Member State subjects all weapons to authorisation internally, it also has the right to subject to authorisation any weapon that enters its territory, even one which is simply subject to declaration under the rules of the country of origin.

The Commission has never obstructed the adoption of stricter classifications and at present some Member States, such as Spain, the Netherlands, Latvia and Hungary, have opted for classification based on two categories: prohibited weapons and weapons subject to authorisation. Other Member States, such as Sweden, Finland and Cyprus subject the acquisition of any weapon to authorisation, whilst also abiding, of course, by the general principle of prohibiting category A weapons laid down in the Directive.

Some Member States, such as Belgium, have recently opted for a system similar to the two-category system (weapons prohibited or subject to authorisation) but include under their laws a third category subject to declaration, which covers in particular hunting permit holders. In Portugal possession of a hunting permit is also a pre-requirement for acquiring category C and D weapons.

Other Member States, such as Germany, provide for a mixed system of authorisation (when the weapon is not prohibited of course) and declaration. A person who already holds an arms possession card (Waffenbesitzkarte) simply has to declare the acquisition of a weapon falling under category C or D (of the Directive) within a period of 15 days of its purchase, but authorisation is still required for the acquisition of a category B weapon. UK legislation provides for three categories of firearm (prohibited, subject to special authorisation or subject to a simple declaration to the police for authorised purchasers or possessors, on the general basis of a "shotgun").

Member States such as France have adopted a system of weapons categorisation which of course complies with the Directive's classification, but contains more specific, detailed categories regarding the type of weapons subject to declaration, authorisation or prohibition. Austria for its part makes distinctions very close to the Directive's four categories. The Czech Republic also uses the Directive's classification, but makes category C subject to prior authorisation.

lykoris

Well they must do things differently in Ireland, here we require an import & export license for EU countries in buying firearms as a private individual.

I have a national and european firearms license/passport and still required an import license to buy a HK416 from frankonia in Germany(eu) and a sig550 from gunfactory in switzerland (non-eu)

Sparks

What if you buy an air rifle or a smallbore rifle from a local dealer?

Grizzly 45

Germany,so long as it under the 12ft/lbs[whatever that is in metric] is a free firearm [anything with the hexagon with a letter F in the middle stamped on the gun ] is freely purchaseable by anyone over 18.

lykoris

Sparks wrote: »

What if you buy an air rifle or a smallbore rifle from a local dealer?

10 Joules/7.3fpe and under is freely available to anybody over 18+

above that limit requires either a hunting license(although it's completely illegal to hunt in France with any type of air rifle/pistol regardless of power) or a sports shooting license and needs to be declared as its category 7 in theory

in practise however all the French go to/order from via the net either Belgium or Holland where as long as you are over 18 you can buy a 200fpe airgun if you want and the French police couldn't care less about air rifles - it's the complete opposite approach to the UK police where they will seize and test to ensure you are under 12fpe unless it's on your fac ticket.


you can freely buy an air rifle/pistol in Germany if you are over 18 and the limit is 10 Joules (not 12fpe/16J like the UK)- anything above requires licenses, there isn't a whole lot you can do with 10J except shoot .177 at 10m on a windless day.

putting a license or power limit on air rifles is just pointless

lykoris

as a final note I don't want to detract from the real issue you're all facing to talk about legislation differences between countries.

I really hope you get to defeat the additions in the bill and keep your fullbore pistols & wheelguns.

I think I'd be gutted if I had to give up mine (although I do have a plan to relocate them with a friend in Geneva if it ever comes to that).

PJ Hunter

The European Commission is urging EU member states to adopt what it is describing as a common set of “minimum rules” limiting the ownership of guns across the 27-member bloc. The proposal by the EU executive, which was endorsed by the European Parliament on November 29, makes proper and complete marking of firearms compulsory. It also imposes strict conditions on the use of guns by minors and calls on member states to set up a computerised firearms database by the end of 2014. This database, accessible by the police and judicial authorities, would hold detailed information about guns and their owners for a minimum of 20 years.
Gun dealers will also have to maintain a register of all guns throughout the period of their activity, rather than the current five years, while people convicted of a violent intentional crime would be banned from buying one. Those below the age of 18 would only be allowed to possess a firearm for hunting or target shooting. The Commission directive, which is expected to be discussed by EU justice ministers meeting in Brussels this week, comes in the wake of a tragic incident in Finland, where a high-school student killed eight people in a school shooting.
The November 7 shooting spree sparked several copy-cat threats, some of them in Germany. “Recent dramatic events have shown just how necessary it is to better control the purchase and circulation of arms,” said Commission Vice- President Gunter Verheugen. Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) debated the new rules on the acquisition and possession of weapons, especially with a view to Internet sales and guns “converted” by criminals. They also called for the European Firearms Pass to be upgraded. MEP Gisela Kallenbach of Germany, the rapporteur on the question, said that “We were looking to find a balance between the security interests of citizens and the legitimate demands of hunters and sportsmen.”
There are more guns in Europe than might you think. According to the “Small Arms Survey,” a Geneva-based nongovernmental organisation, the average number of firearms per 100 people is 46 in Finland, 36 in Cyprus, and 32 in Sweden. These are often used for hunting. In contrast it’s nine in Estonia and Ireland, three in the Netherlands and one in Poland. In the United States the figure is 90 guns per 100 people. The proposals also targets arms trafficking: criminal gangs who make and smuggle arms would be covered by the new directive with a stricter definition of what the practice is. Ammunition and gun parts would also be included.

Make the live easier for legal users

The directive will not inconvenience legal users of firearms, such as hunters and target shooters. The four category system for classifying firearms is retailed, although several Member States have simplified the system by only using two categories. These Member States, according with the subsidiary principle, can go further than the directive and keep their stricter classification systems in the national gun law. The Commission will evaluate the four category system by 2012, with a view to the possibilities to enhance the functioning of the internal market in this area.

Member States will no longer be allowed to make acceptance of the European firearms pass conditional upon the payment of any fee or charge.

The text also calls Member States to simplify administrative procedure of authorisation to acquire and possess firearms.

Entry into force and implementation

The directive is expected to come into force by January 2008, with a transposition deadline by 2010.

Member States can have stricter rules and criminal sanctions

Member States would remain free to introduce stricter rules in their national legislation implementing the directive.

The UN Protocol, which Member States have undertaken to implement, requires that certain criminal sanctions are introduced into Member State law. The directive will contain a reminder of that.

Grizzly 45

This is about two years old news..
It's riddled with faults,has been partially implimented and is bogged down in a morast of red tape.

tonysopprano

MINISTER OF INJUSTICE TO BAN ALL CARS UNDER 1.5L

The minister of injustice has called for a ban on all cars, of engine size 1.5litre and smaller. This comes on the back of a recent attempt to attack the dutch royal family, in a Seat Ibiza. "The growing culture of owning such cars (sales up 9.8% over last 38 years) and the likelyhood of one of these cars being used to attack an irish indignity is of great concern to me" the minister is reported to have said. "Over the past years there was a defacto ban on such cars, because during the celtic tiger era nobody wanted to be seen dead in one.". The fact that none have been used in a crime in over five decades seems to have been missed by the minister. The minister was not available for comment.:D:P

It wasn't me!

When will we hear anything back from the committee stages? How exactly does it go from here? Does it come back with amendments and some form of report and get put before the Dail in its amended form now?

Sparks

Well, we need the committee stage to be scheduled first - someone said June 18 a while ago but there's been nothing official announced. The Dail, Seanad and all Committees are risen this week because of the elections, if they're looking to get this done this year they'll have to schedule it shortly after they all return.

In the meantime, now is the time to be writing, emailing, calling and visiting your local TDs and the TDs on the committee.

And of course, voting in the elections, especially the europeans (getting the MEPs re-elected is more important to the current government according to most political analysts - were the FF MEPs not returned, it's supposedly more likely that there'd be an upset).