Sunday Business Post Red C Poll tomorrow

Pride Fighter

FF 23 - 5
FG 33 +2
Lab 19 +2
Grn 7
SF 8 + 1
Ind 10


These results I got off a website called politics.ie. Dont take them literally until confirmed but a huge shock for FF if true.

Break out the champagne:D:D

NewDubliner

Pride Fighter wrote: »

These results I got off a website called politics.ie. Dont take them literally until confirmed but a huge shock for FF if true.Break out the champagne:D:D

It's all moot. The banks are running the economy.

is_that_so

The one thing that is clear to me is that FF will lose the next election even if they last a full term.This poll merely reinforces that but it's not really a cause for any celebration. Unfortunately they are going nowhere for now and unless enough people from within the Government parties decide to withdraw their support no opinion poll in the world will make a difference. The more important question is how long will they last?

asdasd

Whatever happened to the idea of votes of no confidence. Teh greens are holding up well but will disintigrate if the economy and FF fall further.

The opposition needs to just have a vote of no confidence, and call the greens on it.

ynotdu

if true this is sensational news!
for FF it will leave them red faced and all at c! (groan)

Villain

Any FF Councillor must really be thinking about been an Indepenent at this stage

snubbleste

is_that_so wrote: »

The one thing that is clear to me is that FF will lose the next election even if they last a full term.This poll merely reinforces that but it's not really a cause for any celebration. Unfortunately they are going nowhere for now and unless enough people from within the Government parties decide to withdraw their support no opinion poll in the world will make a difference. The more important question is how long will they last?

Not neccesarily. The Irish electorate have short memories as Mary Harney put it and a general election isn't scheduled until 2012.
A lot of people wrote off FF's chances in 2007 after their local election defeats, turned out they won just under half the seats going and here we are

brianthebard

asdasd wrote: »

Whatever happened to the idea of votes of no confidence. Teh greens are holding up well but will disintigrate if the economy and FF fall further.

The opposition needs to just have a vote of no confidence, and call the greens on it.

Didn't FG have a vote of no confidence last year, wonder how often you can enter the motion?

bijapos

+1 Snubbleste. We knew going into that election they were dodgy and that the economic boom was a joke. We voted for them, we deserve them.

That they get hit at the locals might not be too bad, we might start to get councillors who might care about us and not their paymasters. Just remains to see will FG yet again take over from FF and be the servants of a few corrupt "business people".

The polls mean little to me, normally FF can expect a 5% increase in their vote in the polling booth itself, and why not, the alternative being Kenny.

It just remains to be seen how the public service vote on June 5th, 5 days after getting their pay packets with their first deductions. Shows how bad the present group of FFers are that they couldn't even plan to defer the levies for a month to help their vote a bit. Wouldn't have happened under Ahern, Seamus Brennen etc.

asdasd

A few things are needed.

FG need a new leader.
Labour and FG need to declare a pact.
Put pressure on the Greens.
No confidence votes.

There is not way this government should survive until 2012

fly_agaric

Pride Fighter wrote: »

FF 23 - 5
Break out the champagne:D:D

Almost a quarter of the electorate would still give FF the nod.

Then again FF do seem to manage to be their own best opposition (thinks of the audience fawning over McGuinness on the late-late last night).

The respondants feel they'd be voting for "good" FF (the local boyo!) rather than "that awful shower who've ruined us".:)

mikedublin

Hopefully people within Fianna Fail will realise the longer they are in power now, the worse the poll results get, and the longer it will take for them to get back into office after the next election (the difference between being out of power for 1,2 or 3 terms).
So hopefully some of the TD's will take a long term view, and help bring the government down, and help their own careers by distincing themselves from this disasterous government.

Pride Fighter

fly_agaric wrote: »

Almost a quarter of the electorate would still give FF the nod.

Then again FF do seem to manage to be their own best opposition (thinks of the audience fawning over McGuinness on the late-late last night).

The respondants feel they'd be voting for "good" FF (the local boyo!) rather than "that awful shower who've ruined us".:)

I agree with your analysis, but hopefully the people have the intellegence to see through their sly, conniving rubbish.

turgon

asdasd wrote: »

Labour and FG need to declare a pact.

The last time (07) that Labour did this is didnt serve them well at all.

Pride Fighter

turgon wrote: »

The last time (07) that Labour did this is didnt serve them well at all.

Agree, I think labour should stay in opposition next time around too. The disaster that will be FG +FF in coalition should break FF and create a true left right divide in parliament.

asdasd

The disaster that will be FG +FF in coalition should break FF and create a true left right divide in parliament.

wont happen.

bmaxi

Pride Fighter wrote: »

I agree with your analysis, but hopefully the people have the intellegence to see through their sly, conniving rubbish.

An opinion poll carried out in my local area suggests that two sitting FF councillors, both of whom have had questions to answer, will easily be returned in the local elections. It beggars belief.

Hillel

NewDubliner wrote: »

It's all moot. The banks are running the economy.

One thing is sure, Brian isn't!

ynotdu

sorry i was flippant on my first post,i am just so pissed at almost all our td,s(in all of this Richard Bruton seems to have on a consistant basis spoken sense and some positivity above party politics,me someone far from being a natural FG voter)

A new party is needed badly as it seems even in our darkest hours our kindergarden leaders could not put country first and even if it was only to show the world a better image formed a Govt of national unity(of course we would know the truth about the wasters)

so disillusioned at how short on vision they are:mad:

really how many of them are competant let alone statesmen?

we are so badly served by them:(

bcirl03

bmaxi wrote: »

An opinion poll carried out in my local area suggests that two sitting FF councillors, both of whom have had questions to answer, will easily be returned in the local elections. It beggars belief.

This 'poll' wouldn’t have been carried out by or for FF....hmmmm

bmaxi

bcirl03 wrote: »

This 'poll' wouldn’t have been carried out by or for FF....hmmmm

It was carried in a local paper, I don't know who commissioned it and they aren't saying. I can't see what benefit it would be to FF, FG maybe, although I suppose the " most people trust us" scenario could apply.

is_that_so

snubbleste wrote: »

Not neccesarily. The Irish electorate have short memories as Mary Harney put it and a general election isn't scheduled until 2012.
A lot of people wrote off FF's chances in 2007 after their local election defeats, turned out they won just under half the seats going and here we are

Local elections are used by people to give governments a bloody nose and in general can be ignored. The only real function they offer is to provide potential candidates for the next general election.

FF were not written off. What was voted for the last time was neither one nor the other. At the time there was a suggestion that being down in the polls they could lose but they recovered ,helped by boom times, Bertie the "Experienced" and that fairly silly "contract with the people" thing, from FG. Without the Green figleaf they would now be close to a minority government.

FF have really nothing going for them in 2012,if they get that far. They have a truly lousy cabinet and what is available outside is not much better. On top of this the current problems mean the Opposition parties won't even need to campaign beyond "Remember the mess they got us into".

A lot of this "they'll get back in again" seems to be based on a belief that politics began in 1997. Come the next election, our situation will be closer to the 80s. Governments came and went and were regularly punished. The Spring Tide got its comeuppance as well. As has been commented many times in this forum most people ignore politics until it either actually affects them or it's two weeks to the election.

Breezer

asdasd wrote: »

FG need a new leader.

Oh for God's sake, are people still tossing this old chestnut around?

Labour and FG need to declare a pact.

No they don't. Many FG voters don't want an alliance with Labour, as they see the party as being in bed with the trade unions. Many Labour voters don't want an alliance with FG, as they see it as too right wing. Both parties have seen a massive increase in support since the last general election, and a pact would lose them both votes. If, after the next election, compromises can be reached that are acceptable to both parties, then well and good, but there's no need for a pact at this time.

Put pressure on the Greens.

Agreed. The Green first preference vote seems to be holding up quite well, but the key is the amount of FG and Labour transfers they may have lost. We should get a better picture in June. If the Greens are losing seats, then you'll see the pressure being piled on.

irish_bob

Breezer wrote: »

Oh for God's sake, are people still tossing this old chestnut around?


No they don't. Many FG voters don't want an alliance with Labour, as they see the party as being in bed with the trade unions. Many Labour voters don't want an alliance with FG, as they see it as too right wing. Both parties have seen a massive increase in support since the last general election, and a pact would lose them both votes. If, after the next election, compromises can be reached that are acceptable to both parties, then well and good, but there's no need for a pact at this time.


Agreed. The Green first preference vote seems to be holding up quite well, but the key is the amount of FG and Labour transfers they may have lost. We should get a better picture in June. If the Greens are losing seats, then you'll see the pressure being piled on.

agree that fine gael should distance themselves from labour

im not a fine gael voter per say ( pd,s were closest to my own thinking ) and while i will in all likelyhood vote for them , if they dont start getting tough on the public sector , ill just as happy stay home

yoshytoshy

Breezer wrote: »

Both parties have seen a massive increase in support since the last general election, and a pact would lose them both votes. If, after the next election, compromises can be reached that are acceptable to both parties, then well and good, but there's no need for a pact at this time.

A pact wouldn't necessarily be needed ,theres no harm in having two enthusiastic parties running the country and keeping an eye on each other.

Once people decide what they want first ,it should be plain sailing as to what party takes responsibility from there on (I Wish:);))

Grudaire

I don't see any benifit to having FG in government. This is a typical kneejerk reaction by the electorate (Well, the poll answering part of the electorate). FG have not got the policies to change anything, they also don't have the brains in the party to bring about smart change.

Breezer wrote: »

Agreed. The Green first preference vote seems to be holding up quite well, but the key is the amount of FG and Labour transfers they may have lost. We should get a better picture in June. If the Greens are losing seats, then you'll see the pressure being piled on.

I don't see how the greens have done bad in government. People have ignored all that they have achieved and are doing the Joe (now broken legged) Duffy worthy rants about the Greens, but if you look at the actual improvements that they have brought (For 6 TD's) and compare it to the motions of 'No Confidence' we see bandied about weekly (By the second largest party) it is clear that people are attacking the wrong people

Villain

Breezer wrote: »

Oh for God's sake, are people still tossing this old chestnut around?

Its not really a old chestnut though, Kenny is holding back the party, anyone who has been around here long enough will know how I feel about Bertie but no matter what you say about the man he was likable to the majority of voters and he was able to perform as a leader, Kenny is neither likeable nor can he perform as a leader.

IMO Richard Bruton as leader of FG would add 5 points to their vote and lead them into Government.

Seth Brundle

asdasd wrote: »

Whatever happened to the idea of votes of no confidence. Teh greens are holding up well but will disintigrate if the economy and FF fall further.

The opposition needs to just have a vote of no confidence, and call the greens on it.

The greens won't shake the boat until they have earned their pension entitlements!

fly_agaric wrote: »

Almost a quarter of the electorate would still give FF the nod.

Thats a worrying statistic!

is_that_so wrote: »

Local elections are used by people to give governments a bloody nose and in general can be ignored. The only real function they offer is to provide potential candidates for the next general election.

Sure isn't local politics dealt with by TDs anyway? No need for local politicians!

irish_bob wrote: »

agree that fine gael should distance themselves from labour

im not a fine gael voter per say ( pd,s were closest to my own thinking ) and while i will in all likelyhood vote for them , if they dont start getting tough on the public sector , ill just as happy stay home

Who else would they go with to get a safe majority?

blast05

Kenny is neither likeable nor can he perform as a leader

Where is the evidence that Kenny can not perform as a leader ? The only evidence we have is that he has brought his party back from the brink to now consistently be the number 1 party by a distance in the polls.
Re Bruton or Kenny - who would you prefer to be running the economy ?

Grudaire

blast05 wrote: »

Re Bruton or Kenny - who would you prefer to be running the economy ?

Eamon Ryan

Edit: Actually... Dan Boyle

Villain

blast05 wrote: »

Where is the evidence that Kenny can not perform as a leader ? The only evidence we have is that he has brought his party back from the brink to now consistently be the number 1 party by a distance in the polls.
Re Bruton or Kenny - who would you prefer to be running the economy ?

I think you need to see a few more of his performances in the Dail, he is very weak, compare his performances to Gilmore even, I mean come on, the current Government have given him so many chances to perform in the Dail yet he has never really given a true leader performance, the only time he has come close is when he has led everyone to think he had a smoking gun but he never had.

As for bringing FG back to the Largest supported party, at the moment my nephew who is 5 could do that, imo they should be on 40 points they are loosing too many transfer voters to Labour, and re your last question the Taoiseach should lead the state and the Minister for Finance should follow that lead so I think Bruton would make a much better leader and would get more of those floating voters to follow FG rather than Labour