Munster v Leinster - pre/during/post thread

juvenal

Munster v Leinster
Saturday 2 May 2009, 5.30pm (Irish)
Croke Park, Dublin
Live on Sky Sports 1 (UK & Ire), RTÉ Radio, Setanta Sports (outside Europe)

Munster squad: Forwards: Marcus Horan, Tony Buckley, Federico Pucciariello, John Hayes, Denis Fogarty, Jerry Flannery, Paul O'Connell, Mick O'Driscoll, Donncha O'Callaghan, Donnacha Ryan, Alan Quinlan, Niall Ronan, David Wallace, Denis Leamy.
Backs: Denis Hurley, Paul Warwick, Doug Howlett, Kieran Lewis, Keith Earls, Lifeimi Mafi, Barry Murphy, Ian Dowling, Mike Prendergast, Peter Stringer, Ronan O'Gara.

Leinster squad: Forwards: Cian Healy, Stan Wright, Ronan McCormack, CJ van der Linde, Bernard Jackman, John Fogarty, Devin Toner, Leo Cullen, Malcolm O'Kelly, Trevor Hogan, Sean O'Brien, Rocky Elsom, Shane Jennings, Jamie Heaslip
Backs: Chris Whitaker, Simon Keogh, Chris Keane, Felipe Contepomi, Jonathan Sexton, Gordon D'Arcy, Brian O'Driscoll, Luke Fitzgerald, Shane Horgan, Isa Nacewa, Girvan Dempsey

Munster|No.|Leinster
-|15|-
-|14|-
-|13|-
-|12|-
-|11|-
-|10|-
-|9|-
-|1|-
-|2|-
-|3|-
-|4|-
-|5|-
-|6|-
-|7|-
-|8|-

Munster replacements: tbc

Leinster replacements: tbc

Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales)
Touch judges: tbc
Fourth Official: Wayne Barnes (England)

So, the mother of all Irish rugby derbies is upon us again, and in light of Ireland's Grand Slam success earlier in the spring, Munster's imminent coronation as Magners League champions, and a guaranteed Irish representative in the final of European Club Rugby's premier competition, it makes it a rather outstanding 2009 thus far for the game in this country.

It feels like a long time ago since the 2008/9 Heineken Cup kicked off back in October, and there's been a lot of rugby played since then. Munster opened their campaign with a shaky win in Limerick against a spirited Montauban, following it up with a victory in Sale before coming asunder against an all-star Clermont Auvergne side. Three wins from their remaining three pool 1 matches guaranteed them a home quarter-final, in which they dispatched the Ospreys 43-9 with the sort of comprehensive and ruthless display that you would expect from the All Blacks.

Leinster began their journey with a solid victory in Murrayfield against their traditional bogey team Edinburgh, before back-to-back home wins against Castres Olympique and London Wasps put them in pole position in pool 2. A poor performance in France almost proved costly as they lost in the return to Castres, before nicking a losing bonus point in Twickenham against Wasps and rounding off the pool stages and sealing a quarter-final with a tight win over Edinburgh in the RDS. The travelled to London again for the knock-out stages to play a high-flying Harlequins, who had topped pool 4 after two huge wins against French giants Stade Francais. A tough, close battle in poor conditions couldn't have been more different than Munster v Ospreys, and it went Leinster's way by the minimum as they edged 'Quins in their own backyard 6-5, with drama right to the last minute.

Certainly the biggest news after last weekend's Magners League games is that of the premature ending of Tomás O'Leary's season. Selected for the Lions tour of South Africa on Tuesday, his fractured and dislocated ankle in the early part of Saturday's victory against the Scarlets is a massive blow to both O'Leary personally and Munster. Although the experience and recent good form of Peter Stringer is some comfort, there is no doubt O'Leary would've been first choice for the number nine shirt, with Stringer's pacy pass an ideal weapon off the bench as the game wears on. The number ten channel may be targeted by the Leinster ball carriers, as there's no argument that O'Leary brings a physicality in defence that gives extra protection to O'Gara. Stringer will renew his storied partnership with the Munster outhalf for Saturday, and despite their small individual limitations, it would be no surprise if the Corkmen were the difference between the sides come full-time.

Munster's form is exactly where they want it at this stage of the season, and with the Magners League all but wrapped up, they are favourites to achieve an unprecedented double. They are riding high on a ten-match winning streak stretching all the way back to 3 January when their last defeat was the Ulster raid on Thomond Park in the interpro. At this stage of the season, the side will pick itself, with the outstanding Paul Warwick continuing at full back, Ian Dowling and Doug Howlett on the wings, and Keith Earls and Lifeimi Mafi continuing their centre partnership.

The pack is again a roll-call of the usual suspects. With new Lions captain Paul O'Connell rested in last weekend's game, his reintroduction alongside Donnacha O'Callaghan in place of Mick O'Driscoll is likely to be the only change. Munster will look to the front row of Horan, Flannery and Hayes to provide them with a more solid scrum than was on display in the recent meeting of the two sides in Thomond Park, and expect a titanic battle in both the line-out and the backrows, as Denis Leamy, David Wallace and the ageless Alan Quinlan aim to break holes in the Leinster defence.

Leinster's fitness blow comes in the shape of news that full-back Rob Kearney has failed to recover in time from a dose of the mumps over the past few weeks. Girvan Dempsey is a readymade replacement for the number fifteen shirt, and despite Shane Horgan's try-scoring appearance at the weekend, Luke Fitzgerald and Isa Nacewa are likely to man the wings. Jonathan Sexton's performance on Saturday would give weight to the argument for his inclusion at outhalf, and with uncertainty surrounding Gordon Darcy's form, it may be in Leinster's interests to move Contempomi to inside centre alongside Brian O'Driscoll, especially given the Argentinian's history in these derby matches. Chris Whitaker will need to show a lot more decisiveness and awareness around the base than he did in The Stoop, and cannot afford to be responsible for slow ball or needless turnovers at the breakdown.

Cian Healy should partner Bernard Jackman and Stan Wright in the front row, despite rumours regarding CJ van der Linde's fitness and his apparent naming in the extended squad. Devin Toner and Sean O'Brien's performances of late will force their names into the coaching staff's heads, although there would be no surprise if the second-row pairing of Leo Cullen and Malcolm O'Kelly are given the nod. O'Brien would be a welcome presence in the backrow along with Rocky Elsom and Jamie Heaslip, although once again it's a very tight call with Shane Jennings. Leinster do not possess the balance and dynamism that Munster are producing at present, and some bold selections in the starting XV may be what Leinster need if they are going to pose a legitimate threat on Saturday.

Munster's form of late, coupled with their superiority and balance in the team unit, make them justified favourites. Old heads like O'Gara, O'Connell, Hayes, Quinlan and Wallace have been in the winner-takes-all scenario many times before, and they know exactly what it takes to win these sort of battles. In the backline, Paul Warwick's boot is a welcome back-up, and in the centre Keith Earls, much like Brian O'Driscoll, has the ability to break a game open in a split second. Munster will possess a stronger halfback pairing, and this could provide them with the platform for victory.

Leinster's problems appear to run a little deeper than those that can be turned around in a few weeks on the training ground. Their dominance of the opening twenty minutes and the scrum in Thomond Park a few weeks ago yielded nothing, and in games of that importance and against opposition of Munster's calibre, you won't get too many opportunities. To have a chance on Saturday, Leinster will need to get off to a great start and make the most of their possession and territory when they have it. Brian O'Driscoll and his midfield partner will need huge performances to make inroads in midfield, and the Leinster set-pieces are also crucial to their chances. Jackman's darts will need to be spot-on against a pair of Lions jumpers, and if the scrum can replicate it's performance in the early stages of the Magners League encounter, it could give Leinster some good momentum.

Despite all this, it's almost impossible to look beyond Munster. Their experience in big match days, coupled with the talent across the squad and the self-belief they've shown of late, make then overwhelming favourites. You feel that Leinster will need every bounce of the ball and marginal call, and crucially to make the most of them, to cause an upset. While Munster were outstanding against the Ospreys, everything they touched seemed to turn to gold. Leinster will need to generate that sort of luck and momentum on Saturday. It's essentially a cup final, and in that anything can happen, but I still feel Munster have better balance as a unit, and in O'Gara have a weapon that can control the tempo as it suits. Hopefully it will be a fantastic game and occasion, and free from niggle and controversy.

May the best team win.

Odds (paddypower.com): Munster 3/10; draw 20/1; Leinster 5/2.

Last five meetings:
4/4/09 - Munster 22 Leinster 5 (ML)

28/9/09 - Leinster 0 Munster 18 (ML)
12/4/08 - Leinster 21 Munster 12 (ML)
30/11/07 - Munster 3 Leinster 10 (ML)
27/12/06 - Munster 27 Leinster 11 (ML)

Prediction: Munster 26 Leinster 18?

Serenity Now!

I think the difference between the two teams is basically just cerebral as on paper they'll both be fairly impressive squads.

Podge_irl

Leinster (I'm a Munster supporter)

Ah Jaysus, what does POD have to do to be named in the squad? I will be very unhappy if Keane ends up on the bench for this. If CJ is fit I would love to see him on the bench, definitely a better option there than McCormack even if he isn't at 100% fitness, don't expect to see him though. Shame Kearney is out, but he hasn't been at his best of late anyway. Chieka will put Girve at 15 no doubt, but I'd be interested in seeing Nacewa there (or Fitz). Jennings or O'Brien should be a big call, but I expect Jennings to make it. He's done well in several games of late so not that bothered either way. If Leinster are still in the game then SOB will make some impact if sprung from the bench.

A lot will depend on who is selected to start at 10 for Leinster. Hopefully it will be Sexton, but again I don't see it happening. It will likely be the same backline that started against Glasgow.

chupacabra

Leinster (I'm a Leinster supporter)

This game will be much closer than people (munster fans) think. I cant see there being more than a score in it at the end. Of course, this is before i see the starting lineups.

[Jackass]

Munster (I'm a Leinster supporter)

Kearney is out and CJ doubtful!!!

bleg

Leinster (I'm a Leinster supporter)

munster to beat the bookie's spread (7pts)

Warper

Leinster (I'm a Leinster supporter)

Munster have hammered Leinster twice already this season and it will be third time unlucky for Leinster on Saturday. Contepomi will have to be at his best if Leinster are to keep the score respectable otherwise it could be a bit embarassing.

phog

Leinster (I'm a Leinster supporter)

[Jackass] wrote: »

Kearney is out and CJ doubtful!!!

Kearney will be a loss but Dempsey wont make too many mistakes and I think CJ was never going to actually make the game not have had a run in the last few matches.

That's two Irish Lions not making the SF, wonder will any one else drop out between now and Saturday, hopefully not.

With the current weather and the promised rain on Saturday which team if any will it suit?

thomond2006

Leinster (I'm a Leinster supporter)

I said this before but Juvenal's posts this year have been superb. They really stir the blood. Keep up the good work mate.

Maybe you could replace Steven Jones, that would make my year.

stephen_n

Leinster (I'm a Munster supporter)

phog wrote: »

With the current weather and the promised rain on Saturday which team if any will it suit?

In years gone by that would have suited Munster but given how poor the Leinster backline have been and how good our pack has been it could suit us more than Munster

I still think however Munster will win quite simply because they are playing unbelievably well at the moment but still think there is very little between the two teams and if we had Stringer it would be a whole different game!

murphym7

Leinster (I'm a Leinster supporter)

+1 on the rain not suiting Munster, in fact it would really feck things up.

I think it will be down to a couple of penalty's. Too many people are not giving Leinster the credit they deserve, a great side that on the day could take it.

Rob Kearney is a huge loss though.

Can't wait for the match. It will be a great day out no matter who win's and it will show Irish rugby off well. Guiness Premiership my Arse!!:D

The Ritz

Leinster (I'm a Leinster supporter)

Fair dues to ye, juvenal, excellent writing and very classy as usual

Ritz.

twinytwo

Leinster (I'm a Leinster supporter)

chupacabra wrote: »

This game will be much closer than people (munster fans) think. I cant see there being more than a score in it at the end. Of course, this is before i see the starting lineups.

If both Phil and Drico are on their game then ya it will be close... poor earls is going to have a very very long 80 mins:D

danthefan

Leinster (I'm a Munster supporter)

If Cheika makes the right selections the loss of Kearney won't be as bad as it seems. If he thrown Dempsey in at 15 and as you were elsewhere then we're in big trouble imo, Dempsey hasn't been very good recently.

Orizio

Leinster (I'm a Leinster supporter)

Prediction:

Munster 15 Leinster 9

Danakin

Leinster (I'm a neutral)

There is hope that the rain might hold off on Saturday and it might just be cloudy-Pity Croke Park has no roof!

If the weather holds you'd have to expect Munster on current form and with the confidence they've been showing recently to open things up when they sense the time is right and strike from deep.

Whoever thought we'd see the day when poor weather and a tight, up-the-jumper mudbath might give Leinster their best chance of victory...I still hope they approach it with a more positive attacking attitude-maybe the best thing that could happen would be a couple of early Munster scores and Leinster then to have to throw off the shackles?

Timothy Bryce

Munster (I'm a Leinster supporter)

Danakin wrote: »

There is hope that the rain might hold off on Saturday and it might just be cloudy-Pity Croke Park has no roof!

If the weather holds you'd have to expect Munster on current form and with the confidence they've been showing recently to open things up when they sense the time is right and strike from deep.

Whoever thought we'd see the day when poor weather and a tight, up-the-jumper mudbath might give Leinster their best chance of victory...I still hope they approach it with a more positive attacking attitude-maybe the best thing that could happen would be a couple of early Munster scores and Leinster then to have to throw off the shackles?

Munster are being touted as awesome after making sh!t of a rudderless Ospreys side. Personally I feel that while they are decent in attack, they could be a completely different team on the back foot. A few big hits from Heaslip, Elsom etc resulting in turnovers could really affect Munster in this way.

I think this is the way Leinster have to approach the game - get in their faces from the off.

just my 2 cents.

louthandproud

Leinster (I'm a Leinster supporter)

Timothy Bryce wrote: »

Munster are being touted as awesome after making sh!t of a rudderless Ospreys side. Personally I feel that while they are decent in attack, they could be a completely different team on the back foot. A few big hits from Heaslip, Elsom etc resulting in turnovers could really affect Munster in this way.

I think this is the way Leinster have to approach the game - get in their faces from the off.

just my 2 cents.

With respect if Munster are indeed being touted as awesome it is hardly down to that one match.

Timothy Bryce

Munster (I'm a Leinster supporter)

louthandproud wrote: »

With respect if Munster are indeed being touted as awesome it is hardly down to that one match.

I think the different natures of both Q-Final wins has added fuel to the fire. People can't see past the last M-League match and the Q-Final against the Ospreys.

Danakin

Leinster (I'm a neutral)

Timothy Bryce wrote: »

Munster are being touted as awesome after making sh!t of a rudderless Ospreys side. Personally I feel that while they are decent in attack, they could be a completely different team on the back foot. A few big hits from Heaslip, Elsom etc resulting in turnovers could really affect Munster in this way.

I think this is the way Leinster have to approach the game - get in their faces from the off.

just my 2 cents.

Munster are being credited as awesome due to the Ospreys game as well as their consistently good/great performances in the ML as well as the earlier HC matches. It isnt a one match hype fest, both the first team and the squad players who have come in have been top class in their level of performance going back to before the 6 nations. That for me is why they are strong favourites for the competition, not simply due to the Ospreys game.

anonymous_joe

Munster (I'm a Leinster supporter)

Timothy Bryce wrote: »

Munster are being touted as awesome after making sh!t of a rudderless Ospreys side. Personally I feel that while they are decent in attack, they could be a completely different team on the back foot. A few big hits from Heaslip, Elsom etc resulting in turnovers could really affect Munster in this way.

I think this is the way Leinster have to approach the game - get in their faces from the off.

just my 2 cents.

Think that's a bit harsh on the boys in red.

They've had a solid season, which despite the inevitable hype has put them where they deserve to be - on top of the Magners League and in the HC Semis. That in itself has taken a level of consistency, professionalism and strength in depth that belies any of the old blarney about courageous underdog-ism. They're the strongest professional unit in Britain and Ireland and probably in the whole of the Northern Hemisphere. (I personally don't think we can ever truly judge the strength of the French teams until they play a sensible season. I've no doubts that if their domestic scene was not so draining they'd be 6 Nations Champions, potential world champions and dominating Europe - they've got so much talent and so much money.)

Anyway, other than the odd game (Montauban, Clermont, Ulster) Munster have by and large been very very good. Their rugby's so much colder and more efficient than anyone else in the Magners League. It's frightening to watch at times.

Obviously the recent win over a disappointingly confused Ospreys side and a tough, but effective win over a Leinster side where the score didn't do justice to either the efforts of the Leinster players or the work Munster had to do to beat them.

We're not going out there to play anything other than one of the best teams in the world. They have their weaknesses, and I can only hope Cheika knows how to exploit them, and also shows the intelligence to hide ours. Playing one of the world's best 12's at 12 and a great young outhalf at 10 would seem fairly elementary and yet I'm worried it won't happen.

Were Cheika to do that, then we might see a real contest, rather than the last two games where the relative strength of both sides half-back pairings has decided the game.

Timothy Bryce

Munster (I'm a Leinster supporter)

anonymous_joe wrote: »

Think that's a bit harsh on the boys in red.

They've had a solid season, which despite the inevitable hype has put them where they deserve to be - on top of the Magners League and in the HC Semis. That in itself has taken a level of consistency, professionalism and strength in depth that belies any of the old blarney about courageous underdog-ism. They're the strongest professional unit in Britain and Ireland and probably in the whole of the Northern Hemisphere. (I personally don't think we can ever truly judge the strength of the French teams until they play a sensible season. I've no doubts that if their domestic scene was not so draining they'd be 6 Nations Champions, potential world champions and dominating Europe - they've got so much talent and so much money.)

Anyway, other than the odd game (Montauban, Clermont, Ulster) Munster have by and large been very very good. Their rugby's so much colder and more efficient than anyone else in the Magners League. It's frightening to watch at times.

Obviously the recent win over a disappointingly confused Ospreys side and a tough, but effective win over a Leinster side where the score didn't do justice to either the efforts of the Leinster players or the work Munster had to do to beat them.

We're not going out there to play anything other than one of the best teams in the world. They have their weaknesses, and I can only hope Cheika knows how to exploit them, and also shows the intelligence to hide ours. Playing one of the world's best 12's at 12 and a great young outhalf at 10 would seem fairly elementary and yet I'm worried it won't happen.

Were Cheika to do that, then we might see a real contest, rather than the last two games where the relative strength of both sides half-back pairings has decided the game.

I should probably clarify - Munster have been consistent all season and deserve to be where they are. Their last 3 games have been building into an almighty creschendo (sp). There are people on various forums suggesting that this game is a done deal and Leinster will be taken to the cleaners. I was trying to point out that while they've been pure class the last few weeks, they aren't unbeatable as some fans are suggesting.

Like you, I know they go in as deserved favourites, but they have weaknesses and I pray that Cheika plays the right team/tactics to exploit them.

anonymous_joe

Munster (I'm a Leinster supporter)

Timothy Bryce wrote: »

I should probably clarify - Munster have been consistent all season and deserve to be where they are. Their last 3 games have been building into an almighty creschendo (sp). There are people on various forums suggesting that this game is a done deal and Leinster will be taken to the cleaners. I was trying to point out that while they've been pure class the last few weeks, they aren't unbeatable as some fans are suggesting.

Like you, I know they go in as deserved favourites, but they have weaknesses and I pray that Cheika plays the right team/tactics to exploit them.

Praying to Bod etc. :pac:

But yeah, hoping Cheika proves his mettle this weekend. And you're right, there's no doubting that in some quarters (and for the record not that badly on here) people have been hyping up Munster to a massive degree, but most people who know a bit about rugby know this won't be easy for either team to win.

thomond2006

Leinster (I'm a Leinster supporter)

Match ticket: 45 euro
Train Ticket: 29 euro
Jersey: 60 euro
Novelty Hat: 15 euro
Drinks: Only God knows how much

Seeing Munster beat Leinster: Priceless.

accensi0n

thomond2006 wrote: »

Match ticket: 45 euro
Train Ticket: 29 euro
Jersey: 60 euro
Novelty Hat: 15 euro
Drinks: Only God knows how much

Seeing Munster beat Leinster: Priceless.

Don't you mean..

Seeing Munster possibly beat Leinster: At least €140

ironingbored

Munster (I'm a Leinster supporter)

thomond2006 wrote: »

Match ticket: 45 euro
Train Ticket: 29 euro
Jersey: 60 euro
Novelty Hat: 15 euro
Drinks: Only God knows how much

Seeing Munster beat Leinster: Priceless.

I was expecting a better punchline than that.

thegen

Leinster (I'm a Munster supporter)

thomond2006 wrote: »

Match ticket: 45 euro
Train Ticket: 29 euro
Jersey: 60 euro
Novelty Hat: 15 euro
Drinks: As much as we can get outa ya;)

Seeing Munster beat Leinster: Priceless.

Just edited that for ya;)

ALH-06

Munster (I'm a Leinster supporter)

thomond2006 wrote: »

Seeing Munster beat Leinster: Priceless.

Not really, it's happened a few times recently. Unfortunately...

And the whole Mastercard thing has become such a cliche!

DonkeyPokerTour

Leinster (I'm a Leinster supporter)

I am very disappointed that Kearney misses out on this match, ideally I'd like to have seen a 100% fit Leinster vs a 100% fit Munster then who ever wins there can be no "Well, it would have been different if Mr X was playing". But alas Leinster will be without at least Kearney and Munster will be without at least O'Leary.

What surprises me is how quickly everyone assumes Dempsey in for Kearney. May I suggest Nacewa to FB and Shaggy to the wing. As a Munster fan that looks a far more dangerous back 3 (assuming Luke on the other wing). After all that is Nacewa's preferred position.

Anyway whether the match is class or crap I'm sure the atmosphere will be brilliant. I cant wait!

Regards
Ian

NickNolte

Munster (I'm a Leinster supporter)

I've put Myopic Boring thomond2006 on my ignore list. €140 if you all stop quoting him so I don't have to read that drivvel.

The betting man's money is on Munster this weekend, there's no doubt about it. Provided that they're well prepared for what could be a game where Leinster click and play out of their skins. We all know that Munster are eminently beatable when they don't get to dictate the game and the kind of play I've seen from Leinster (on and off admittedly) this season makes me suspect that they could certainly pull off a sneaky win.

Pinning my flag to the mast though... I'm going to have to say a Munster win.

juvenal

Leinster (I'm a Munster supporter)

DonkeyPokerTour wrote: »

What surprises me is how quickly everyone assumes Dempsey in for Kearney. May I suggest Nacewa to FB and Shaggy to the wing. As a Munster fan that looks a far more dangerous back 3 (assuming Luke on the other wing). After all that is Nacewa's preferred position.

The thing is that despite what most members here would like to see in a Leinster starting XV, it's highly unlikely that Cheika will make the radical selections that have been discussed.

As someone pointed out recently, a HEC semi-final is not the place to be experimenting with your line-up, and it's a very valid point. The season is eight months old now, and there's no excuses for not having a clear tactical plan and a balanced, in-form unit to execute it.

Personally I would like to see O'Brien and Toner included in the teamsheet, and if not, seeing them introduced as early as possible to make an impact. There's no point whatsoever in bringing on substitutes to firefight if Leinster have fallen way behind, it's not fair to the players or the team. Munster are a notoriously difficult team to haul back if they get a lead, and are masters of playing to their strengths while suffocating the opposition of possession and territory. Leinster's first task will be to ensure they lay a marker down, get on the scoreboard early, dominate the 50/50 plays, and keep the shoulder on the wheel. If they have to try playing catch-up, then I fear that it will just be a repeat of Thomand Park a few weeks ago.

I feel like Dempsey will start at fullback, and Nacewa and Fitzgerald on the wings. Horgan will make the 22, and will feature at some point. If Cheika is not prepared to make bold decisions with the starting XV, then he better show some smarts when utilising his bench, as I feel that he needs to be absolutely clear in his tactics and gameplan to have any chance of pulling this off.