Byelections set for June 5th

Seth Brundle

goodbye FF?

Byelections set for June 5th

The byelections for the Dublin South and Dublin Central constituencies will be held with the European and local elections on June 5th, it was revealed tonight.
The seats were left vacant following the deaths of Seamus Brennan last July and Tony Gregory in January.
Minister for the Enviroment John Gormley told the Dáil tonight that the writ for the two elections would be moved by the Taoiseach before May 14th as the date must be at least 18 days before polling day.
Fine Gael tonight tabled a motion calling for the writ to be moved for both byelections immediately but Mr Gormley said this would mean the polls would have to be held in late May.

“The taxpayer would be exposed to the extra expense and disruption involved in holding the byelections and the local and European elections on two separate days within such a short period of time,” he said.
Fine Gael claimed it had forced the Government’s hand by moving the writ.
“It is regrettable that it took action by Fine Gael for the Government to finally name the dates for these vital byelections,” party leader Enda Kenny said.
“The voters of Dublin South and Dublin Central who elected the last Seamus Brennan and Tony Gregory have been without their full compliment of TDs for far too long and it would have been nonsensical to refuse to hold the byelections in conjunction with the national elections.”
Independent TD Finian McGrath told the Dáil after tonight’s decision: “The family and supporters of the late Tony Gregory will be very satisfied by this outcome.”

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0428/breaking72.htm

kenco

Should be interesting. Both FG and Lab will fancy their chances so it will be interesting to see how the 'alliance' stands up. Rumours of a high profile FG candidate in Dub South could make for fun and games!

jank

I can see FG and Labour picking up a seat each here.

FF will still be there in government though.

dave-higgz

About time they announced this. As a resident of Dublin South myself I think the mourning period for Seamus Brennan is well over and we and the people of Dublin Central need our full representation in the Dail.

With under 50 days left until poling day it will be a rush for candidates to get a campaign together while the local and european politicians have had the date for months now.

FF have had two TD's in Dublin for nearly 30 years but I think this will definitely change this time around. Alex White is the only announced candidate and I'd say he'll probably get it. That'll be a nice 2FG, 1Lab, 1Grn and 1FF mix.

Neil3030

So what is the current seat count and what effect can this by-election have?

dave-higgz

Alex White and Pascal Donohoe are both running in the by-elections however they are both sitting in the Seanad. How will their Seanad seats be filled should they win.

JonathanAnon

Well it's obvious to say, but I'd say that FF will get the whole buildup of levies, economic crisis, etc etc. Spose the greens will probably get a backlash as well to be fair to them, it's really FFs baby. You would have expected successive Ministers For Finance to have put in place some measures to help achieve what was projected to be a "soft landing".

Lost two of the better TDs in Gregory and Seamus Brennan. I remember how disappointed Brennan was when he lost Transport for Social & Family Affairs (considered a demotion). He was very dignified in his acceptance of what was a very disappointing demotion for him, maybe some of his successors should have taken note.

Are there any candidates of interest by the way, and popstars or celebrities?

The_Minister

A sitting government has, AFAIR, only ever one ONE by-election in the last 50 years.

FF will lose these without any doubt.

ateam

The_Minister wrote: »

A sitting government has, AFAIR, only ever one ONE by-election in the last 50 years.

FF will lose these without any doubt.

I agree but not to the extent perhaps predicted by some, FF are after all, an electoral machine. If there is a huge walloping for FF, expect a reshuffle in September with Coughlan being the first to go. The scale of the defeat will have to be enormous in order for some back bench revolt. I think they'll be expecting a really bad hammering.

ArmaniJeanss

I don't think by-elections are a Fianna Fail 'thing', so even if they roll out the top brass they'll get a hammering.

They thrive in a general election though with superb vote and transfer management in constituencies regularly turning a 30% poll rating into 40% of the seats.

jank

FF are going to get an annihilation on an genocidal scale when the local elections take place.

There will be huge pressure on Cowen. I think the aftermath of that will dictate if this government falls or lasts the full term.

Moriarty

I can't see two by-election results causing the government to fall when they already know they're going to get hammered. FF are in for the long haul to 2011, they've put their heads down and are trying their damndest to ignore the current political climate because they're wise enough to know that outrage rarely lasts here. They're in the job as long as they hold it together, and that's what they're there for.

This government will fall due to something coming out of the long grass and putting real doubt and fear amongst the ranks. Expect to know nothing about it until it happens and the government to have collapsed inside two weeks of you hearing about it.

kenco

Interesting bigger issue brewing in Dublin South for FF as Kitt has said that he is not running in the next Gen Election. Therefore as they are unlikely in the extreme to keep Brennans seat (and therefore the undue pressure on his son to run) they will have no sitting TDs running in this consituency in the next election (whenever that is)

turgon

Moriarty wrote: »

This government will fall due to something coming out of the long grass and putting real doubt and fear amongst the ranks. Expect to know nothing about it until it happens and the government to have collapsed inside two weeks of you hearing about it.

Care to enlighten us?

Sully

Iv actually been given a tip from a reliable source who heard from government sources that he believes if FF get a whipe out in the elecitons they will step aside and say that the "People have spoken". Right now, they have nothing to resign for. It takes a message from the masses for them to actually walk the plank.

Then again, we were told similar around the time of the budget. It does bring into question how stable the government is and how confident everyone is if these rumours are floating around from the party itself.

Mrs JackDaniels

Fianna Fail for Life
Come on lads do ya really think Mr Enda (I'm as interesting as a spud) Kenny will do a better job? Have to say I feel kinda sorry for Brian Cowan what an awful time to have stepped into Berties shoes!

Tom65

I don't think FF will take as much of a hammering as everyone expects. In my experience, people generally know their local councillor better than their TD, and blame them less for what's happened in the last few years. I think they tend to separate those in government from those in the county council. In think they're certainly going to lose seats (especially when you consider they did so in 2004, in between good GE results).

As The Minister said, governments don't really get on well in by-elections. I would guess FF are calling them a write-off, and moving on.

Sully

Mrs JackDaniels wrote: »

Fianna Fail for Life
Come on lads do ya really think Mr Enda (I'm as interesting as a spud) Kenny will do a better job? Have to say I feel kinda sorry for Brian Cowan what an awful time to have stepped into Berties shoes!

Yes, I do think Kenny could do a much better job the Cowen. Cowen has not only showed he is strugling to run the country but he has clearly shown that he is struggling to run the party.

Whereas Kenny has kept his party in "check", introduces decent plans for when/if they lead the country, has pulled the party from the dungeons to be a really credible party that is hot on the heels of FF who have been slowing down and faling to pieces.

I think that Bertie Ahern was a much better leader then Cowen and he made a poor choice in selecting his successor.

Tom65 wrote: »

I don't think FF will take as much of a hammering as everyone expects. In my experience, people generally know their local councillor better than their TD, and blame them less for what's happened in the last few years. I think they tend to separate those in government from those in the county council. In think they're certainly going to lose seats (especially when you consider they did so in 2004, in between good GE results).

As The Minister said, governments don't really get on well in by-elections. I would guess FF are calling them a write-off, and moving on.

Its a tough one to call. Its widely expected based on the anger that is out there and opinion polls. Those who are out canvasing on the doors, like myself, have a fair idea of what people think. For what it seems, most are just really annoyed with the government and want them out. They want someone else to run the country and seemed to be more open to other partys.

Iv met people, old and young, who have always been voting FF and have decided that for once - they wont be. I have met people who rarely vote, who will now make their voice heard. Bare in mind that the Lisbon rejection was a signal to the government and we could see a repeat. Thats not saying I have met people who are still voting FF and those who simply wont vote at all. I know that some candidates are struggling canvassing (their FF) due to the backlash at the door. Others have stopped.

So, there will be a huge loss for FF but the question is - how much of a loss. The government have partly admitted they wont do well anyway.

CorkFenian

Mrs JackDaniels wrote: »

Fianna Fail for Life
Come on lads do ya really think Mr Enda (I'm as interesting as a spud) Kenny will do a better job? Have to say I feel kinda sorry for Brian Cowan what an awful time to have stepped into Berties shoes!

Brian Cowen has really covered himself in glory since last May alright..Could Kenny do any worse that is the question...What kind of charisma does Cowen have??Zero...This guy was minister of finance for four and half years prior to taking over..He is no innocent.He is as gulity as Bertie...He knew exactly what he was doing IMO..

gazzer

Mrs JackDaniels wrote: »

Fianna Fail for Life
Come on lads do ya really think Mr Enda (I'm as interesting as a spud) Kenny will do a better job? Have to say I feel kinda sorry for Brian Cowan what an awful time to have stepped into Berties shoes!

I dont feel a bit sorry for him. Hate would be a better word. Both him and that cnut Ahern have us in this mess.

Mrs JackDaniels

gazzer wrote: »

I dont feel a bit sorry for him. Hate would be a better word. Both him and that cnut Ahern have us in this mess.

:eek: I loved Bertie!!

turgon

Mrs JackDaniels wrote: »

Fianna Fail for Life
Come on lads do ya really think Mr Enda (I'm as interesting as a spud) Kenny will do a better job? Have to say I feel kinda sorry for Brian Cowan what an awful time to have stepped into Berties shoes!

FGs new health plan is certainly better than FFs, although I still have to look into it in depth.

Mrs JackDaniels wrote: »

:eek: I loved Bertie!!

Your on boards.ie here, that was a bad move compradre!

Mrs JackDaniels

Just as entitled to love him as others are to hate him!

CorkFenian

Mrs JackDaniels wrote: »

Just as entitled to love him as others are to hate him!

Of course u are




??????????:eek::(

Why do you love him???

Mrs JackDaniels

Just think he did alot of good for the country but everyone forgets that. (also come from very strong Fianna Fail background currently out canvassing for them in the local election)

turgon

Mrs JackDaniels wrote: »

Just think he did alot of good for the country but everyone forgets that.

Enlighten us, please.

Mrs JackDaniels wrote: »

(also come from very strong Fianna Fail background currently out canvassing for them in the local election)

So one of your reasons for following them is simply because you parents did?

Mrs JackDaniels

turgon wrote: »

Enlighten us, please.



So one of your reasons for following them is simply because you parents did?

Firstly when we going through the econimic boom I didn't hear much complaining. Secondly all his work with peace process must count for something? plus why was he in power for 11 years if he was so ****?

Nothing to do with parents really, just always heard about FF when growing up and always had a interest in politics. But made made the decision to continue supporting them when I cast my first vote myself

Tom65

Mrs JackDaniels wrote: »

Firstly when we going through the econimic boom I didn't hear much complaining.

I always resented this line. There was a lot of complaining, about schools and hospitals in particular during the boom. FF just chose to ignore them, and focused on "the boom".

gazzer

Mrs JackDaniels wrote: »

Firstly when we going through the econimic boom I didn't hear much complaining.

Think you are very wrong there. What about the tons of people complaining about the disgusting state of our hospitals and A and E departments and our crumbling schools? These are things that were happening when Bertie was in power.

Mrs JackDaniels

meh sure lets just say they are all a bunch of gangsters, keep everyone happy.
:P

turgon

And the fact that were now in this crap is evidence of bad governance.

Mrs JackDaniels wrote: »

meh sure lets just say they are all a bunch of gangsters, keep everyone happy.
:P

Great. Well done.