Big Price Drops in Southside Apartments today

thewing

No but houses started to rocket in value between 2001-2006

I'd be amazed if they went past 97 levels.

Think that prices will continue to drop and then just match inflation after the next 2-3 years.

Hell if they went to '97 levels, happy days....my 8 painful years of renting and sharing would have been worth it!

ntlbell

thewing wrote: »

No but houses started to rocket in value between 2001-2006

I'd be amazed if they went past 97 levels.

Think that prices will continue to drop and then just match inflation after the next 2-3 years.

Hell if they went to '97 levels, happy days....my 8 painful years of renting and sharing would have been worth it!

Ok, so you have no evidence or thought process to why they won't reach 97/98 it would just amaze you.

That's a bit different.

thewing

Yup

Cos you have no evidence they'll go past 97 levels

You can quote all the economics and past historic accounts of what happened in Finland, Japan etc. but this is a recession the likes this state has never seen, so who the hell knows.

As Nell McCafferty says 'Ye know naahhthing'....

The banks didn't see the credit crunch happening

The builders saw no end to the boom

Who can say what the end of the recession will be...?

If you can, tell me what numbers you're picking for the EuroMillions friday night, I could do with the €125m...

ntlbell

thewing wrote: »

Yup

Cos you have no evidence they'll go past 97 levels

You can quote all the economics and past historic accounts of what happened in Finland, Japan etc. but this is a recession the likes this state has never seen, so who the hell knows.

As Nell McCafferty says 'Ye know naahhthing'....

The banks didn't see the credit crunch happening

The builders saw no end to the boom

Who can say what the end of the recession will be...?

If you can, tell me what numbers you're picking for the EuroMillions friday night, I could do with the €125m...

I can't tell you what level's we're going to see but we can all look at what facts we have _today_ those fact's point to keep dropping

there's no evidence to say they won't go to 97 and there's none to say they will

Your saying they won't go to 97.

I'm saying they could.

I've stated many times why I think they will

you won't state why they won't go to 97 just that you would be "suprised"

thewing

Surprise is the wrong word

Fúcking Delighted....

Means I could have a decent standard of living....and a mortgage that I wouldn't be paying into my retirement...

Shur all we can do is wait and see....

Mugatu

ntlbell wrote: »

I can't tell you what level's we're going to see but we can all look at what facts we have _today_ those fact's point to keep dropping

there's no evidence to say they won't go to 97 and there's none to say they will

Your saying they won't go to 97.

I'm saying they could.

I've stated many times why I think they will

you won't state why they won't go to 97 just that you would be "suprised"

If a four bed semi D in a leafy Dublin suburb hits 175k. Then I can buy it, quit my job and easily cover the monthly repymants on a 10 year fixed on while being on the dole. Thats almost as good as winning the lotto.

thewing

I reckon dole will be coming down too.....

ntlbell

Mugatu wrote: »

If a four bed semi D in a leafy Dublin suburb hits 175k. Then I can buy it, quit my job and easily cover the monthly repymants on a 10 year fixed on while being on the dole. Thats almost as good as winning the lotto.

I doubt you'll be covering it on the dole.

That pot is soon to run out

175k at abg 5% mortgage over 10 years = ? about 1700e a month

you be doing well on your 800e

Mugatu

thewing wrote: »

I reckon dole will be coming down too.....

Coming down. It would almost want to not exist if you could pay back a house like that for 500 a month.

It would be a wonderful world if we could all live in a leafy Dublin suburb for that price.

Didn't that guy on the late late say that in south Dublin 87% of all new builds have been apartments. What happens when these aprtment folk want to move onto a house to have a family. Supply and demand perhaps?

Mugatu

ntlbell wrote: »

I doubt you'll be covering it on the dole.

That pot is soon to run out

175k at abg 5% mortgage over 10 years = ? about 1700e a month

you be doing well on your 800e

What I meant was 10 year fixed but a 35 year term. Maybe after ten years I could think about going back to work.

ntlbell

Mugatu wrote: »

Didn't that guy on the late late say that in south Dublin 87% of all new builds have been apartments. What happens when these aprtment folk want to move onto a house to have a family. Supply and demand perhaps?

How are they going to move when they're in 150-200k worth of negative equity

they won't be going anywhere.

ntlbell

Mugatu wrote: »

What I meant was 10 year fixed but a 35 year term. Maybe after ten years I could think about going back to work.

i think the max you can fix at atm is about 5 years, i could well be wrong tho

even if you did fix for 10 years the payment could seriously baloon when you come out of it and every penny you have may not pay the mortgage

sure why don't you just go on the dole now and get them to pay your rent allowance for the rest of your life?

why wait!

Mugatu

ntlbell wrote: »

i think the max you can fix at atm is about 5 years, i could well be wrong tho

even if you did fix for 10 years the payment could seriously baloon when you come out of it and every penny you have may not pay the mortgage

sure why don't you just go on the dole now and get them to pay your rent allowance for the rest of your life?

why wait!

Nope you can get a ten year fixed and are you seriusly trying to guess at what the economic environment is going to be like in 2020?

175k for a four bed semi in a leafy dublin suburb is a joke and I'm guessing that the person who posted that wasn't being serious.

ntlbell

Mugatu wrote: »

Nope you can get a ten year fixed and are you seriusly trying to guess at what the economic environment is going to be like in 2020?

175k for a four bed semi in a leafy dublin suburb is a joke and I'm guessing that the person who posted that wasn't being serious.

nope not trying to guess but you have to stress test it incase

your looking at mortgage repayments of about 750e a month in the first 10 years.

This will leave you 50e a month

for bills, food, clothes etc etc etc

noice.

you would seriously be better of just getting them to pay your rent for life you'd have a house and 200e a week to spend on whatever..

you're not thinking this through very well

Mugatu

ntlbell wrote: »

you're not thinking this through very well

Its not exactly my life plan. I was pointing out how farcical the opinion that a house like that could go for 175k.

But heh, if you want to hang around and wait for it ain't nobody going to stop you.

Keith C

the lower the price, the lower the deposit needed so apts have a massive way to fall. can see a lot more of these going on affordable housing lists.

look at stocking lane "rathfarnham" 2 bed apts are now down to €400/€420 k so 20% deposit (required by most lenders for apts) is €80k :eek:

Now you can get one on affordable houseing for €240k & 3% deposit :cool:
Yes you have clawback but its ":cool:affordable"

IMO these will drop to €240k on open market in a few years anyway.

Westwood

Mugatu wrote: »

If a four bed semi D in a leafy Dublin suburb hits 175k. Then I can buy it, quit my job and easily cover the monthly repymants on a 10 year fixed on while being on the dole. Thats almost as good as winning the lotto.

Why do you think so many people choose to move down the country?
and now cant get back quick enough :rolleyes:
tallaght has leafs on its trees I hear?

SoupyNorman

Mugatu wrote: »

175k for a four bed semi in a leafy dublin suburb is a joke and I'm guessing that the person who posted that wasn't being serious.

Im deadly serious dude.


I have every right to speculate that this will happen as you have that it wont. Back in 1996 if I said that 4bed semis in leafy suburbs would sell for €800k plus in 10 years time you'd of been quite the cynic then too I'd imagine.

The gap between it being cheaper to buy then rent is getting smaller now with the rental market being flooded, I'm happy to sit it out.

You cant definitively say that my prediction is not going to happen.

Mugatu

SoupyNorman wrote: »

Im deadly serious dude.


I have every right to speculate that this will happen as you have that it wont. Back in 1996 if I said that 4bed semis in leafy suburbs would sell for €800k plus in 10 years time you'd of been quite the cynic then too I'd imagine.

The gap between it being cheaper to buy then rent is getting smaller now with the rental market being flooded, I'm happy to sit it out.

You cant definitively say that my prediction is not going to happen.

Your right I can't say that it definitively won't happen. More power to you if it does. As I said a four bed semi in a leafy (So I'm guessing somewhere like D4) for 175k would be almost as good as winning the lotto. I wonder if the odds are similar.;)

francish

Prices are still absolutely crazy, €250k for a 1 bed in Dundrum, purchasing at this price would be absolute madness. There is no one bed apartment in Dublin that is worth more than €150k.

SoupyNorman

Mugatu wrote: »

Your right I can't say that it definitively won't happen. More power to you if it does. As I said a four bed semi in a leafy (So I'm guessing somewhere like D4) for 175k would be almost as good as winning the lotto. I wonder if the odds are similar.;)

Ah. I'll take the lotto win thanks.

Wild horses could drag me to live in D4, there is umpteen leafy suburbs in Dublin...broaden your horizons!

Pete4779

ntlbell wrote: »

When you can buy a solid(lol) 1 bed apt in a nice enough area at around 2X's the avg ind wage then we can start talking about some value..

so your looking realistically at around 65-75k for a 1bed apt.

and a 3 bed house at around 115-130k or there about's

The thing is, you should be looking at 3.5x average wage in an average area. You want 2x average wage in a nice area for the same property. Years ago banks wanted 7x average wage in an average area.

I think 65k is unrealistic in a nice area - by that I mean Blackrock, Dalkey, etc.,. If they were, half the country would try and buy it, demand goes up and price sells for 300-400k. That is how it works.

However, there are plenty of properties for sale for your price range, just as in London there are 1 ebds that cost £1 million, there are 3 beds for £150k.

Right now there is a 3-bed in Dublin 11 for €120k. There is probably also a 3-bed in Dalkey for €2 million. People will have to adjust there expectations and buy, if they want, something within their budget or not at all.

SoupyNorman

Pete4779 wrote: »

Right now there is a 3-bed in Dublin 11 for €120k. There is probably also a 3-bed in Dalkey for €2 million. People will have to adjust there expectations and buy, if they want, something within their budget or not at all.

The likes of the Dalkeys/Foxrocks, Westminster road properties will still hold the position of the most expensive properties (relative to market worth), I dont think anyone can doubt or question that.

Its new homes that were thrown up in the boom that will go for the kind of money I believe ntlbell is suggesting, in or around the €65k mark.

An apartment should be a way to get a foot on the property ladder, over the last 10 years or so apartments were deemed to be as safe a houses...they're not. Houses will retain good values I feel but the duplexes, apartments and developments are the ones where you'll see really crazy rock bottom prices in times to come.

gurramok

Mugatu wrote: »

Your right I can't say that it definitively won't happen. More power to you if it does. As I said a four bed semi in a leafy (So I'm guessing somewhere like D4) for 175k would be almost as good as winning the lotto. I wonder if the odds are similar.;)

A 4bed semi did sell for 190k in year 2000 on the southside(Walkinstown). I know because the person that sits beside me in work bought one at that price!

All it takes is another year back('99) and you have 175k in the same area.

Mugatu

gurramok wrote: »

A 4bed semi did sell for 190k in year 2000 on the southside(Walkinstown). I know because the person that sits beside me in work bought one at that price!

All it takes is another year back('99) and you have 175k in the same area.

Ok, I'm not going to disagree that places like Walkinstown, Crumlin, Tallaght etc might go that low but I guess it might even depends on the area's within these addresses. There are ex council houses for that price now. Refering to leafy Dublin to me points to prestigious area's like D4.

spockety

2001-2007 has made some people believe that areas like Dundrum, Stillorgan, Goatstown, Ballinteer and Rathfarnham are 'prestigious' areas akin to the French Riviera or something.

A bog standard 3 bed semi in these areas has got a lot further to fall. The denial has been strong in these sellers since the crash.. er sorry, correction.. began.

Mugatu

spockety wrote: »

2001-2007 has made some people believe that areas like Dundrum, Stillorgan, Goatstown, Ballinteer and Rathfarnham are 'prestigious' areas akin to the French Riviera or something.

A bog standard 3 bed semi in these areas has got a lot further to fall. The denial has been strong in these sellers since the crash.. er sorry, correction.. began.

Not the French Riviera and also not somewhere someone with mortgage capacity of 3 x their avergae industrial wage can afford either (I'm talking about a 3 bed house, not an apartment). Denial works both ways.

spockety

Mugatu wrote: »

Not the French Riviera and also not somewhere someone with mortgage capacity of 3 x their avergae industrial wage can afford either (I'm talking about a 3 bed house, not an apartment). Denial works both ways.

Who said anything about average industrial wage?

Figures of 175k for a house in south dublin seem to be the bone of contention. You'd need to be earning at least 58k a year to cover that with a 3x multiple. That is nowhere near the average wage.

Pete4779

Well that's where supply will determine prices eventually. It's difficult to tell just how many apartments were built. What I said about houses, holds for apartments as well, just as in any other city.

Stillorgan would be a "higher" value area than Dundrum, which would be higher value than Ballinteer, etc., .

It won't be reasonable for someone earning 50-60k to buy a 3 bed in Stillorgan, but maybe in a cheaper area. It's quite interesting to see people pick well-developed areas now like Dundrum, and presume that they will buy a flat there for 80k!

Pick an average area, with average public transport and shopping, and maybe you will, like Tallaght, Finglas, Blanchardstown, etc., .

spockety

Pete4779 wrote: »

Well that's where supply will determine prices eventually. It's difficult to tell just how many apartments were built. What I said about houses, holds for apartments as well, just as in any other city.

Stillorgan would be a "higher" value area than Dundrum, which would be higher value than Ballinteer, etc., .

It won't be reasonable for someone earning 50-60k to buy a 3 bed in Stillorgan, but maybe in a cheaper area. It's quite interesting to see people pick well-developed areas now like Dundrum, and presume that they will buy a flat there for 80k!

Pick an average area, with average public transport and shopping, and maybe you will, like Tallaght, Finglas, Blanchardstown, etc., .

I think the supply of people earning upwards of 60k who have 20k cash deposits and are actively looking to buy will probably end up being just as important a factor as the supply of property itself. Which, lets face it, isn't exactly much of a problem at the moment!