Euro Elections, Ireland South

turgon

Here beith the list of candidates as it stands:

Candidate|Party
Dan Boyle|Green Party
Colm Burke*|Fine Gael
Brian Crowley*|Fianna Fail
Toireasa Ferris|Sinn Fein
Alan Kelly|Labour Party
Sean Kelly|Fine Gael
Ned O Keefe|Fianna Fail
Kathy Sinnott*|Independant
*Incumbent

(Apparently another guy called Maurice Fitzgerald, who lives down the road from my nan in Ringaskiddy, is running with the aim to spend €0 on the campaign!!)

So thoughts/predictions??



The main success in this constituency, in my view, would be the unseating of Kathy Sinnot, who bases her political career on ignorance, rudeness and lying.

With lack of anyone else to follow I will probably go for the two Fine Gael candidates. One of them will definitely get through and I think the duo of incumbent and famous person might see them get both.

My third will probably go to Crowley. He is the only FF man I would ever give a preference to. I have met him once and saw him at the forum on Europe debate on the Treaty of Lisbon, and I was very impressed. He will get through because of his personality but will not top the poll like last time because of his party.

Ned O'Keefe doesnt stand a chance I think. I just really dont know why FF are even running him. Dan Boyle is equally doomed but not as bad as O'Keefe. He wouldnt get it even if the greens were good in government id say.

So to summarize id say Crowley, one FG, and one other out of FG, Alan Kelly and Sinnot.

BlitzKrieg

no opinion on Alan Kelly?

Aside from being the Labour candidate I cant find much about him, his website seems to have more on hurling then anything else.

KnifeWRENCH

I reckon Crowley is safe, he has always been a well liked and respected politician. I don't think people will turn against him just because he's FF. I reckon the other two seats will go to the FG candidates but they will probably not be getting my votes as I am not a fan of FG (although I won't completely dismiss them until I find out more about them) Right now, I'm going for Crowley, Alan Kelly and Toireasa Ferris but I haven't decided who my first/second/third preference will be yet.

Also, I totally agree with the OP about getting rid of Sinnott. I really hope she is not re-elected. I liked her when she first came to prominence because she styled herself as a champion for disabled peoples' rights but has since been revealed as a right wing crackpot. Plus she's militantly anti-abortion and anti-embryonic stem cell research, two issues on which my views are the exact opposite to hers.

turgon

I went on to Alan Kellys website and disappointingly your remark that it is only about hurling is very true.

I reckon hes just a bog standard Labour guy which means I wont vote for him based on the fact Im ideologically opposed to his party. The whole Labour thing could work though, with recession and all that.

I agree with Knife-WREEENCH about Crowley, he is the only one who will definitely get in. Im still just bemused by the running of O'Keefe

turgon

Alan Kelly, Labour wrote:

Munster and other regions outside Dublin rightly believe they play second fiddle to the east coast. A key priority of the EU has always been balanced regional development hence it often describes itself as Europe of the regions. The highly centralised form of government practiced in Ireland often mitigates against the capacity of the regions to enjoy greater benefits from the regional funds and initiatives driven by the Union

Surely this is a matter for a general election, ie greater regional autonomy?

CantGetNoSleep

Not sure about Sinnott, I think she stands a good chance of being re-elected given that her extreme anti establishment policies might be favourable to some in these times

Personally, I will be giving first preference to Crowley, but am undecided on others

A further candidate has announced his intention to run in recent days, Dr. Alexander Stafford, an Independant

Interyurauldone

Knife-WREEENCH wrote: »

I reckon Crowley is safe, he has always been a well liked and respected politician. I don't think people will turn against him just because he's FF. I reckon the other two seats will go to the FG candidates but they will probably not be getting my votes as I am not a fan of FG (although I won't completely dismiss them until I find out more about them) Right now, I'm going for Crowley, Alan Kelly and Toireasa Ferris but I haven't decided who my first/second/third preference will be yet.

Also, I totally agree with the OP about getting rid of Sinnott. I really hope she is not re-elected. I liked her when she first came to prominence because she styled herself as a champion for disabled peoples' rights but has since been revealed as a right wing crackpot. Plus she's militantly anti-abortion and anti-embryonic stem cell research, two issues on which my views are the exact opposite to hers.

I think you're right Crowley should be safe, he's one of the few candidates who wont suffer the expected FF backlash this summer as he appears to have a very strong core support behind him. As a person I like him and he's a good candidate but it's policies over traditional party allegiance in my opinion this time round.

I strongly believe that as the month of May progresses and as pay checks start to come out (minus the increased income and health levies) the real anti-government feelings will rise to the surface.

A discussion at lunch time today with my co-workers made me realise that a lot of people still aren't fully aware of how much the emergency budget measures are going to hit them. One person on a salary of €33k thought they would only be down €30 extra a month!! A lot of voters are still in for reality checks!!

Ferris could be the surprise candidate in the south elections, she'll go close to that third seat.

nesf

As above, I think Crowley is safe. Mainly because he's well liked and his vote isn't just based on him being the FF candidate. He also isn't *that* associated with the FF parliamentary wing. I don't see Ferris doing that well, the "Ferris brand" doesn't have much of a base outside of North Kerry. Dan Boyle should do ok, though I can't see him being elected. Ned O'Keeffe has no chance. The rest are "also rans" with the exception of Sinnott who I sincerely hope crashes and burns.

I'll be voting FG, FG, FF in an effort to unseat Sinnott who I detest as a politician.

MossNyc

I have met Alan Kelly a few times and hes a really good guy. Hes a senator and hes young and at least in touch with the people around him.

He's from Tipp and is the only Munster candidate on the east side when you consider all the existing MEP's are based out of cork. I would be a Labour voter so maybe a little biased on this but the rest of them with the exception of Crowley, i wouldnt vote for. Especailly Sinn Fein

I reckon Sinnot is gone.

The best quote i heard canvassing the other day was from a FG guy who said hes trying to convince everyone to vote Fianna Fail so the B**stards never get out of governemnet and have to suffer forever

Dob74

FF 1, FG 1
I think Ferris will get the third seat. A woman with a high profile and a large party machine.
Kelly will probably pip Burke for the FG seat.
Crowley over O'keefee for the FF seat.

Interyurauldone

nesf wrote: »

As above, I think Crowley is safe. Mainly because he's well liked and his vote isn't just based on him being the FF candidate. He also isn't *that* associated with the FF parliamentary wing. I don't see Ferris doing that well, the "Ferris brand" doesn't have much of a base outside of North Kerry. Dan Boyle should do ok, though I can't see him being elected. Ned O'Keeffe has no chance. The rest are "also rans" with the exception of Sinnott who I sincerely hope crashes and burns.

I'll be voting FG, FG, FF in an effort to unseat Sinnott who I detest as a politician.

I think the lack of Sinn Fein support in areas like Waterford and Tipperary is what will eventually bring down Ferris. If i remember correctly Sinn Fein had a paltry support in Tipperary in 2007 and failed to get a seat in waterford with a guy called David Cullane (might be wrong on the name) after a lot of talk that he would cause a shock & get a seat there.

That said she will push FG for that third seat but the lack of transfers from eliminated candidates to Ferris will probably see FG take 2 and Crowley to get the third. Although if FG screw up their vote management they could see one candidate run away with it and leave the other FG candidate struggling.

Sinnot's in trouble in my opinion if things dont change fast for her.

nesf

Interyurauldone wrote: »

I think the lack of Sinn Fein support in areas like Waterford and Tipperary is what will eventually bring down Ferris. If i remember correctly Sinn Fein had a paltry support in Tipperary in 2007 and failed to get a seat in waterford with a guy called David Cullane (might be wrong on the name) after a lot of talk that he would cause a shock & get a seat there.

Very little support in rural Cork too and not much in the city. SF don't have a political machine worth the name in terms of a Munster wide scale. There are multiple constituencies that they didn't run a candidate in in the last election and apart from Kerry North they didn't make much of an impression in those where they did run someone. Unless she can manage to turn out a strong protest vote I don't see her competing for the third seat.

I think Crowley will do better than third I imagine too.

slippy wicket

Interyurauldone wrote: »

Sinnot's in trouble in my opinion if things dont change fast for her.

Declan Ganley was on with George Hook this evening and he urged people who would vote for Libertas in ireland south to give their votes to Sinnott.
Guess this means she will get at least 10 more votes.

BlitzKrieg

well isnt that an informal confirmation that libertas in a euroskeptic movement then.

CantGetNoSleep

slippy wicket wrote: »

Declan Ganley was on with George Hook this evening and he urged people who would vote for Libertas in ireland south to give their votes to Sinnott.
Guess this means she will get at least 10 more votes.

I'd say this was a reason there is no Libertas candidate in Munster, although she has (very wisely) distanced herself from Libertas.

Very surprised at her unpopularity here, although I have to say I would be somewhat in agreement to sentiments expressed here.

I still think she will gain a large vote though, and someone in the know has told me she is a certain to get elected, although that may have just been him acting skeptical

Our man in Havana

turgon wrote: »

I agree with Knife-WREEENCH about Crowley, he is the only one who will definitely get in. Im still just bemused by the running of O'Keefe

Standard FF policy to run at least 2 candidates. There is usually 1 sacrificial lamb in each constituency.

Dob74

I still dont see why people vote for Crowley.
He isnt that sharp and apart from going to the Rose of Tralee and other silly public appearances he doesn't do much.

singularity

Crowley is one of the culprits behind the copyright extension. Makes you wonder whose interests he is really looking after.

Anyway, the big question is which of the candidates that supports Net neutrality.

getcover

Anyone but Sinnot, O'Keeffe and Ferris.
Hopefully Kelly and Dan Boyle will get in.

(I know he is part of the now discredited Green Party, but Boyle is a good guy and a nice fellow, and if thats enough for Crowley, (who is part of the discredited FF), it should be enough for Boyle. Dan Boyle is also infinitely more able than Crowley.)

turgon

I will be giving Burke my vote over Kelly based on his preexisting experience. I just dont see any other way to differentiate between them. Plus FG campaign is run so as to get west Munster voting for Kelly and east Munster voting for Burke I think.

MossNyc wrote: »

He's from Tipp and is the only Munster candidate on the east side when you consider all the existing MEP's are based out of cork.

Ferris is based in Kerry, and S Kelly in Limerick/Kerry Im sure.

CantGetNoSleep wrote: »

I'd say this was a reason there is no Libertas candidate in Munster

That was what they said at the time, that they didnt want to divide the anti-Lisbon vote.

Dob74 wrote: »

I still dont see why people vote for Crowley.
He isnt that sharp ...

getcover wrote: »

Dan Boyle is also infinitely more able than Crowley.)

I went to the Forum on Europe debate on Lisbon and both Boyle and Crowley were there. I was explaining to my friend why I preferred the latter over the former, and and it was really this: when Sinnot and most of the No speakers made any ridiculous point (lots of these) Boyle would just kind of snigger while Crowley made a real attempt to explain the flaws.

I think hes as decent a FF you will get. And the fact that he has the highest attendance record of any Irish MEP is admirable.


Good vid here, it was posted in politics with no comment so the oscarBravo locked it. Kathy Sinnot is confronted at 2:25 about taking undeserved expenses, her response was "be very careful how you report this."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnMtc_QJ4-E

I really really hope she goes.

Dob74

turgon wrote: »

I will be giving Burke my vote over Kelly based on his preexisting experience. I just dont see any other way to differentiate between them. Plus FG campaign is run so as to get west Munster voting for Kelly and east Munster voting for Burke I think.



Ferris is based in Kerry, and S Kelly in Limerick/Kerry Im sure.



That was what they said at the time, that they didnt want to divide the anti-Lisbon vote.



I went to the Forum on Europe debate on Lisbon and both Boyle and Crowley were there. I was explaining to my friend why I preferred the latter over the former, and and it was really this: when Sinnot and most of the No speakers made any ridiculous point (lots of these) Boyle would just kind of snigger while Crowley made a real attempt to explain the flaws.

I think hes as decent a FF you will get. And the fact that he has the highest attendance record of any Irish MEP is admirable.


Good vid here, it was posted in politics with no comment so the oscarBravo locked it. Kathy Sinnot is confronted at 2:25 about taking undeserved expenses, her response was "be very careful how you report this."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnMtc_QJ4-E

I really really hope she goes.

An edited report by a German tabloid tv station is no reason to discredit Sinnot.
If you are for the Lisbon Treaty you probably wont be voting for her anyway.
Since a majority of votes in the south voted Lisbon down she has a decent chance.
I hope they dont find out how much Cowen is earning

Hitman Actual

Dob74 wrote: »

If you are for the Lisbon Treaty you probably wont be voting for her anyway.
Since a majority of votes in the south voted Lisbon down she has a decent chance.

She has a decent chance, undoubtedly, but I don't think her stance on Lisbon will have much to do with it. Wasn't she was the one who continually got hysterical over abortion, etc, in the campaign? I think that's more than likely to rob her of votes, if the reaction to her on here is anything to go by. Also, polls showed that abortion, euthanasia, etc, only contributed to a couple of % of the No vote tally.

turgon

Yep, if someones being hysterical and dogmatic its probably Kathy Sinnot.

I did vote No to Lisbon and was disgusted to be on the same side as her kind.

BlitzKrieg

An edited report by a German tabloid tv station is no reason to discredit Sinnot.

yes but an official respone by kathy sinnot where she admited to abusing her powers but her defence was that she was up all night working and therefore elgiable for it, which was complete bollocks because the allowance is legally not for people who *stayed up all night the night before* she still broke the law and stole irish taxpayers money.

CantGetNoSleep

singularity wrote: »

Crowley is one of the culprits behind the copyright extension. Makes you wonder whose interests he is really looking after.

Anyway, the big question is which of the candidates that supports Net neutrality.

Musicians and performing artists? Have you read the copyright report? If not i'd suggest you do

Zuiderzee

Unreal - seriosly, I cant believe that clip - expose corruption and you will get sued!!!!! She, and all the others had a chance their and then to explain what they were doing.

'None of your business' ? - we pay his bloody wages
'Such impertanence' ? Why was she sprinting for the door and hiding in the corner? More rouge trader than political reporting.

The whole idea behind a free press is that it is a part of a system of checks and balances. We buy papers and pay licence fees to pay journalists etc. to ask questions and inform us of problems, one of them being abuse.

Turgon - bang on, I dont think this treaty is a good idea, simply because I wont accept the words of the politicians, but when you object to the Treaty - you get lumped in with others who you have nothing to do with.

singularity

getcover wrote: »

Anyone but Sinnot, O'Keeffe and Ferris.
Hopefully Kelly and Dan Boyle will get in.

(I know he is part of the now discredited Green Party, but Boyle is a good guy and a nice fellow, and if thats enough for Crowley, (who is part of the discredited FF), it should be enough for Boyle. Dan Boyle is also infinitely more able than Crowley.)

I'm not sure if this is intended as an answer to the net neutrality question. If the voting about the telecoms package is anything to go by, Ireland could seriously improve on its ranking:

http://www.laquadrature.net/wiki/Telecoms_package_directives_2nd_reading_by_country

That said, and I'm not defending Sinnott in any way, she seems to be more on the ball re: internet than most MEPs:

http://www.laquadrature.net/wiki/Telecoms_package_directives_2nd_reading_IE

singularity

CantGetNoSleep wrote: »

Musicians and performing artists? Have you read the copyright report? If not i'd suggest you do

I have, what's your point?

Extending the copyright from 50 to 70 (originally 95) years makes absolutely no sense. Especially not when you put it into context: A patent on (hypothetically) a cancer medicine would last 20 years. How can 70 years seem reasonable in that light?

Scofflaw

Zuiderzee wrote: »

Turgon - bang on, I dont think this treaty is a good idea, simply because I wont accept the words of the politicians

Presumably there's something more to it than being against because they're for it and you don't trust them? After all, I don't trust them either.

cordially,
Scofflaw

View

Zuiderzee wrote: »

I dont think this treaty is a good idea, simply because I wont accept the words of the politicians

The problem with that attitude is that it is up to the Government - the politicans and civil servants - to negotiate treaties on our behalf. In fact, Bunreacht na hEireann specifies it is up to them to do so.

That doesn't, and won't, change just because you vote No. All you do is put the ball back in the politicans lap to go off and negotiate something else. BUT, since you won't accept the word of the politicans, you won't accept the result of a second round of negotiations either or a third or a fourth...

And, as they negotiate more than EU Treaties, you presumably won't accept the result of anything else they negotiate, whether it is the Belfast agreement, an EU Treaty, a UN one or even a Tax Treaty with another country.

Taking your attitude to its logical extreme, Ireland could not enter into any international agreement with any other state or body. Ireland would end up more isolated than North Korea!

Since, I sincerely hope you aren't that short-sighted, why do you believe that the politicans and civil servants - "Team Ireland" if you will - would actively seek to negotiate a deal (i.e. Treaty) which they believe would be bad for Ireland and the EU? It just does not make sense for them to do so.

After all, were you the lead negotiator on "Team Ireland", what would be your objective - to negotiate a good deal or a bad one?

getcover

singularity wrote: »

I'm not sure if this is intended as an answer to the net neutrality question...

It wasn't
I was simply posting my preferences for the elections, and reckoned that Dan Boyle should have as good a chance as Crowley, given that most of the people I've spoken to/read will vote for Crowley "because he is a nice guy". So is Dan Boyle, and in my experience Boyle is far more able!