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Will Sinn Fein lose their Dublin MEP Seat

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    #32
    Erin Go Brath
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,708 ✭✭✭Erin Go Brath


    tobias_wolf wrote: »
    looking over the last european election numbers Mcdonald won the forth seat in dublin, with dublin now only three will it be likely she will loose her seat?, or has her popularity grown(hopefully not)?, if she looses here seat will it be the end of Mary lou Mcdonald (hopefully), or has Fianna Fail completely blown it and thus giving her a chance to remain Sinn Feins immoral puppet.

    Mary Lou's popularity and profile has grown considerably since the last election, also buoyed by the victory of the NO side in the Lisbon treaty.

    My prediction is FG and Labour to take the first two seats, Eoin Ryan to get the third highest votes and Mary-Lou fourth. I think Mary Lou will finish higher than Eoin Ryan thanks to a favourable surplus from Joe Higgins and other left leaning and No to Lisbon candidates and sneak the final seat.


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    #33
    Souljacker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 121 ✭✭Souljacker


    I think it'll be a close call but ultimately I think they'll lose it. It seems all but assured FG and Labour will win the first 2 seats.

    The final seat seems to be lining up for a battle between Ryan, McDonald and Higgins.

    FF's vote has plummeted but even if it held at 20, even 15% it's unlikely SF would be able to match FF on first preferences. After that it will be down to transfers and while FF are unlikely to attract too many SF historically don't receive transfers given people's tendencies to either love or loth the party.

    If Higgins is the penultimate candidate to go his transfers will make it interesting but I still think ultimately it will be FG, Lab, FF.

    Personally I'd love Higgins to win the 3rd seat. I don't think people should discount his personal popularity. If he's able to hang in there I believe he's the potential to attract more transfers than either Ryan or McDonald. Here's hoping anyway.


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    #34
    ilkhanid
    Registered Users Posts: 929 ✭✭✭ilkhanid


    "Surely after all the wrong doing nobody is going to vote for Fianna Fail?"

    Remember, Haughey, Liam Lawlor, Ray Burke and Beverley Flynn? They had no trouble getting votes. If FF appointed "Seanie" Fitzpatrick head of the Central Bank,moved the Dail to Sherkin Island and announced a tax on eyebrows, there would still be a hard core that would vote for them.


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    #35
    Our man in Havana
    Closed Accounts Posts: 29,476 ✭✭✭✭Our man in Havana


    ilkhanid wrote: »
    "Surely after all the wrong doing nobody is going to vote for Fianna Fail?"

    Remember, Haughey, Liam Lawlor, Ray Burke and Beverley Flynn? They had no trouble getting votes. If FF appointed "Seanie" Fitzpatrick head of the Central Bank,moved the Dail to Sherkin Island and announced a tax on eyebrows, there would still be a hard core that would vote for them.
    If you put a FF badge on a scarecrow, people would vote for the scarecrow.


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