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TNS/MRBI Poll 15.05.09 - FF Meltdown Continues....

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    #32
    nesf
    Registered Users Posts: 27,645 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    nkay1985 wrote: »
    Here is the overview of the 2004 Locals. FF lost 80 seats! 80! They were edged out in lots of constituencies. So, while they won't be turning those near losses around this time out, I wonder just how many seats are there to be lost? That will be very interesting to see on June 6th.

    Bear in mind also the abolition of the Dual Mandate allowing TDs and Senators to also hold Local Councillor seats in 2003, it saw a lot of "household names" being replaced with new faces which only made things worse I imagine for FF in the election. Cork North Central lost all but one of it's elected councillors and all the new faces lost a nice few percentiles of the vote when 2004 came around versus their predecessors performances, with the Socialist Mick Barry turning a 4% First preference showing into a 17% one in that time.


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    #33
    nkay1985
    Registered Users Posts: 6,975 ✭✭✭nkay1985


    nesf wrote: »
    Bear in mind also the abolition of the Dual Mandate allowing TDs and Senators to also hold Local Councillor seats in 2003, it saw a lot of "household names" being replaced with new faces which only made things worse I imagine for FF in the election. Cork North Central lost all but one of it's elected councillors and all the new faces lost a nice few percentiles of the vote when 2004 came around versus their predecessors performances, with the Socialist Mick Barry turning a 4% First preference showing into a 17% one in that time.

    Yeah so a lot of those "new faces" from last time have now had four years to build up their profile locally. Granted, this will be more than evened out by the anti-FF sentiment that is present, but I just get this feeling that the Locals will end up being a lot better for FF than some people expect. Not a meltdown anyway.


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    #34
    nesf
    Registered Users Posts: 27,645 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    nkay1985 wrote: »
    Yeah so a lot of those "new faces" from last time have now had four years to build up their profile locally. Granted, this will be more than evened out by the anti-FF sentiment that is present, but I just get this feeling that the Locals will end up being a lot better for FF than some people expect. Not a meltdown anyway.

    FF are going to get massacred I think. The 2004 thing affected all major parties and benefited the smaller parties the most. This time around there's a hunger to punish FF for the last two budgets and quite a few FF councillors and MEPs are on the way out, generally "2nd seaters".


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    #35
    nkay1985
    Registered Users Posts: 6,975 ✭✭✭nkay1985


    nesf wrote: »
    FF are going to get massacred I think. The 2004 thing affected all major parties and benefited the smaller parties the most. This time around there's a hunger to punish FF for the last two budgets and quite a few FF councillors and MEPs are on the way out, generally "2nd seaters".

    Yeah, you might be right. But FG made a big gain last time out. Presumably in areas where they had been knocking on the door. I don't though. I just don't think it'll be that straight-forward. Hope I'm wrong.


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    #36
    nesf
    Registered Users Posts: 27,645 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    nkay1985 wrote: »
    Yeah, you might be right. But FG made a big gain last time out. Presumably in areas where they had been knocking on the door. I don't though. I just don't think it'll be that straight-forward. Hope I'm wrong.

    Well massacre here is a relative term. I mean, FF could lose 2/3rds of their seats and they'd only be down to Labour 2004 level of representation. They can take a big hit and still stand a decent chance of being the second biggest party at local level.

    SF did extremely well in 2004 and it'll be interesting to see if they can hold onto and build on their gains. Labour and FG should make up ground and what happens to the Greens might shape their future policy regarding being in Government. They've only 18 seats at local level, FF have 302. It wouldn't take much to knock the Greens almost totally out of local politics and that I imagine would have serious repercussions come the next party conference and with their strange democratic system within the party the party could easily vote to pull out of Government (the Greens are set up so it is the party rank and file who make these decisions, not the Parliamentary wing of the party which is a risky and odd way of doing business).


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    #37
    nesf
    Registered Users Posts: 27,645 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    More details in today's Irish Times: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0515/1224246568699.html?digest=1

    An interesting statistic. 93% of Green supporters are dissatisfied with the Government's performance.


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    #38
    nkay1985
    Registered Users Posts: 6,975 ✭✭✭nkay1985


    nesf wrote: »
    More details in today's Irish Times: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0515/1224246568699.html?digest=1

    An interesting statistic. 93% of Green supporters are dissatisfied with the Government's performance.

    Wow, that is a very interesting stat. We could see a general election very, very soon. I don't think FG would necessarily want that.


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    #39
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    I think FG would like to have FF in power just a bit longer maybe for one more budget.....


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    #40
    jmcc
    Registered Users Posts: 7,412 ✭✭✭jmcc


    nesf wrote: »
    Well massacre here is a relative term. I mean, FF could lose 2/3rds of their seats and they'd only be down to Labour 2004 level of representation. They can take a big hit and still stand a decent chance of being the second biggest party at local level.
    And if it is above that level of loss? How would FF like to be competing with SF for third place?

    Regards...jmcc


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    #41
    spank_inferno
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,892 ✭✭✭spank_inferno


    The news of the survey IMO is the support for FF hasn't quite collapsed yet.

    There is still nearly a quater of likely voters who would vote for them, no matter how bad they perform.

    Relatively speaking Cowen could have it a lot worse


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    #42
    irish_bob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,271 ✭✭✭irish_bob


    Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »
    Don't understand why labour taking a hit.

    the general public have no time for thier absolute refusal to call for any real reform of the public sector , the public are clearly tired of populism beit BERITIESM or the kind of leftist populism labour have been engaging in for the past number of months

    the poll is a green light for fine gael to move away from the centre and to call for outright reform of the PS and the wellfare state
    only thing stopping fine gael now is thier leader , were they to have someone like the charismatic IVAN YATES at the helm, every non public sector worker or swing voter in the country would vote fine gael plus rural fianna fail voters who cant stand labour for the most part , all that fianna fail would have left is core , that core is shrinking by the month


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    #43
    MoominPapa
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,106 ✭✭✭MoominPapa


    irish_bob wrote: »
    only thing stopping fine gael now is thier leader ,

    I disagree. I think Endas lack of flash is turning into an asset for FG. We had 10 years of the (apparently - personally never got it) charismatic Bertie and a year of the pugnacious Biffo and look where it got us. I think the public are more welcoming of a grayer, Majoresque figure like Kenny.


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