Make up of the Next Dail

dave-higgz

The latest opinion poll shows a continuing decline for FF and a surge for FG with Labour remaining steady. With a general election looking even more likely after June 5th such a vote could see FF slip to the 3rd largest party in Ireland behind FG and Labour.
Since the Mullingar Accord a FG/Lab coalition is the assumed make up of the next dail however the recent boost in FG could point to a 40%+ poll in a real election.
Labour mightn't be needed to make up the remaining 10% so who could fill this void in their place? Green Party? Sinn Fein? or even FIANNA FAIL????

Also if Labour and Fianna Fail both find themselves in opposition, who sits directly opposite the government in the dail???

brianthebard

Why would a general election be likely after June 5th? If the government parties do poorly its even more of an incentive not to call an election, when there's a chance that by riding out the whole term they can spin themselves back into power.

Iwasfrozen

Why would a general election be likely after June 5th? If the government parties do poorly its even more of an incentive not to call an election, when there's a chance that by riding out the whole term they can spin themselves back into power.

If Fine Gael/Labour win all of the by elections a Fine Gael/Labour coalition may be able to form a Goverment and call an election to confirm their position.

dave-higgz

brianthebard wrote: »

Why would a general election be likely after June 5th? If the government parties do poorly its even more of an incentive not to call an election, when there's a chance that by riding out the whole term they can spin themselves back into power.

Ok well IF it were to happen?

The bookies have it at either this year or next and remember that the Greens may decide to pull out.

brianthebard

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

If Fine Gael/Labour win all of the by elections a Fine Gael/Labour coalition may be able to form a Goverment and call an election to confirm their position.

Surely they would need a third party?

Iwasfrozen

I'm sure Sinn Fein or even the Greens would be willing to hear the call like Dogs to a bone.

brianthebard

Yes but Labour wouldn't go in with SF the last time, and while there's a chance the greens will jump ship, its not guaranteed. Any shred of credibility would be lost if they switched sides to stay in power.

RayM

dave-higgz wrote: »

Also if Labour and Fianna Fail both find themselves in opposition, who sits directly opposite the government in the dail???

The bigger of the two parties, presumably (which would clearly be Fianna Fail - never underestimate the stupidity of an Irish electorate).

In the unlikely event that, after the next general election, Fine Gael went into government with the support of independents/Greens/Sinn Fein, Labour would be in the enviable position (regardless of FF's numbers) of having greater moral authority to oppose and challenge the government. The inevitable "difficult decisions" that FG would have to make would most likely result in their electoral support slipping back - perhaps towards Labour. Gilmore should bide his time...

Souljacker

If Fine Geal can continue their surge then they may indeed be able to form a government without Labour, which I think may not be a bad thing as it may let things run more smoothly.

If Labour and FF are ruled out (for the sake of argument) then the only viable alternative lies with the Greens or a consortium of independents or indeed both.


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I should say at this point I'm a Northern floating voter. Currently I support NI's biggest party which doesnt' have the concept of national identity at the core of it's manifesto, the Greens.

That being said I'm not a particular fan of Gormley and I think the southern Greens were wrong to go in with the FFers (although I can see why they did). So in an ideal world I'd like to see the Greens take a change of direction, pull down the government and start again in a coalition with FG.

In the south at the minute I would vote FG first, the greens 2nd and Labour 3rd in short. I like the idea of a party which gives briefs to politicians on the basis of their skills and abilities and to a large extent gives free reign to those individuals to come up with viable policies in their respective areas. It gets rid of parties doing things for ideological reasons which is why I wouldn't be attracted to labour at the minute.

Take Dr James Reilly planed reform for the health service. The notion that the money should follow the patient and not handed out regardless means we may finally get some competitiveness injected into our the black hole that is the HSE. It's based on a Dutch model which works, it makes sure everyone takes responsibility for insuring their own health care and removes the 2 tier system which exists today.

I think Richard Bruton speaks nothing but sense about the economy, I think his National recovery bank idea makes a hell of a lot more sense than NAMA as it actually gives the banks a deadline to sort out their debt or face administration.

Necessity’s the mother of invention after all and NAMA just seems to be a 'get out clause' for many of those people who placed us in the position we're in today.

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The status quo in Irish politics has been shattered and while a FG Green independent coalition may seem unlikely it's far from impossible. It's personally what I'd like to see but I'd settle for FG/Labour.

** In between the stars is my rambling opinions, feel free to discount if you don't want to know my thinking process

randylonghorn

I'd half expect to see a lot of independents and one-cause-wonders do well in the next election ...

Dalfiatach

Even if the Greens jumped ship I think there's enough FF, PD and Independents to keep Cowen in power, just about. After the 2 by-elections FG/Lab would still only be on 73 and would need the Greens AND SF to force Cowen out and cause an election.

It'll probably take some Indos and maybe a few FF backbenchers abandoning the party in the hope of saving their seats to bring down this Government.

As for the next Dáil, well on these numbers FG could be heading towards the low-40%s in an election, and that could put them on 70-something seats, and that could mean an FG + Green (or even SF) coalition. Don't laugh too fast, FG/SF might have the numbers and in a weird way might actually work as a Government.

Leaving FF and Labour squabbling for leadership of the Opposition. And when ye think about it FF and Labour are far closer on a lot of topics than FG and Labour. FF/Lab vs FG makes far more sense than FF vs FG/Lab. We might, completely by accident, be heading towards "normal" politics. After a fashion.

Grudaire

Souljacker wrote: »

So in an ideal world I'd like to see the Greens take a change of direction, pull down the government and start again in a coalition with FG.

+1

Big time - I see this as the only real ending to this government in the short run. It could also be very good PR for the Greens, depends on the electorate though - we can be very illogical

nuttz

My possibly flawed opinion:

Will the government call an an election?
No.

Will the government loose support from the greens/independents?
Not likely, but possible.

Will the government survive a no confidence vote?
Yes if they still have most of the original support that formed the latest revision of this government.

Do I think there will be an election this year?
No, with Lisbon looming in the autumn, I would nearly bet my pension that there will not be a general election this year.

Souljacker

Cliste wrote: »

+1

Big time - I see this as the only real ending to this government in the short run. It could also be very good PR for the Greens, depends on the electorate though - we can be very illogical

If you think your (the south) illogical take a look at the gob****es we elect up here.

We've a Environmental minister who banned a British carbon footprint add because he doesn't believe in global warming: Sammy Wilson
http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/members/biogs_07/wilson_s.htm

Our biggest parties health spokes person has said on record homosexuality is worse than paedophilia: Iris Robinson
http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/members/biogs_07/robinson_i.htm

Our Agriculture minister give out farm grants on a first come first served basis making farming meaning those who weren’t willing to camp out got nothing: Michelle Gildernew
http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/members/biogs_07/gildernew_m.htm

An Education minister and committee who have managed to replace the infamous 11+ test with something much worse, unregulated church academic selection at the age of 11. (which really is quite a feat). Caitriona Ruane
http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/members/biogs_07/ruane_c.htm

All in all I think illogical doesn't nearly cover it.

The_Minister

brianthebard wrote: »

Yes but Labour wouldn't go in with SF the last time, and while there's a chance the greens will jump ship, its not guaranteed. Any shred of credibility would be lost if they switched sides to stay in power.

Yes but you seem to be forgetting that Labour have been working fairly closely with Sinn Fain for the last year.
Sinn Fein got their first seat in the Senate thanks to a deal with Labour, and the only reason that SF have any speaking time in the Dail was because they did a deal with Labour.

brianthebard

The_Minister wrote: »

Yes but you seem to be forgetting that Labour have been working fairly closely with Sinn Fain for the last year.
Sinn Fein got their first seat in the Senate thanks to a deal with Labour, and the only reason that SF have any speaking time in the Dail was because they did a deal with Labour.

That's true but do you really see them working together in government? I think they gave SF speaking time out of respect for the democratic process or some principle in that vein, rather than a real desire to hear what they have to say. And if Labour were happy enough to deal with SF why didn't they go into government with them and the Greens from day one? At that stage it should've been clear that a big shift was needed in budgetary thinking, and it would've been easier to do then than it is now.