Where does Ireland go next?

markopantelic

I'm genuinely curious about the prospects of this generation and what lies in store for Ireland and how can we adapt to this increasingly globalised world(obviously Ireland benefited greatly from globalisation)

Is Ireland simply too small to compete in this day and age and have we fallen too far behind to adapt? Could Ireland simply be gobbled up by globalisation.

Obviously the key for Ireland now is being innovative and creative but will this simply be enough? Remember that quote from the simpsons 'no matter how good you are at something there is always millions better than you', well are countries like Norway and Sweden in their own league and will Ireland forever lag behind, kinda like Uruguay without the good weather.

What I'm trying to say is could Ireland simply fail to adapt in this modern era?

I look around and I can't see what next even when the global downturn comes to an end.

Sorry for my simplicity, but I really am curious. Hopefully some you smarter people will be able to understand what I'm trying to get at.

Rb

Well, we have a country full of people who kept probably the worst Government this country will ever see in power, throughout some of the best times our economy will ever see, to let them completely mishandle it and fail to secure our future in any shape or form.

As long as it remains that way, and the next G.E is no indication as the same utter morons will still, no doubt and unfortunately, be alive, this country and its future is f*cked.

af_thefragile

I put this out before, but i'll say it again.

What Ireland needs is entrepreneurs. Ireland needs more local businesses, more industries that could create a spin off infrastructure.

But, thanks to EU(SSR), we've got sky high taxes that stand affirmative at knocking out any new business that tries to grow in the country. Its also chasing off the foreign businesses that had set up bringing jobs and revenue to the country.

So for the future of Ireland, well, its just gonna scrape along the sidewalk of the road to globalisation.

markopantelic

Rb wrote: »

Well, we have a country full of people who kept probably the worst Government this country will ever see in power, throughout some of the best times our economy will ever see, to let them completely mishandle it and fail to secure our future in any shape or form.

As long as it remains that way, and the next G.E is no indication as the same utter morons will still, no doubt and unfortunately, be alive, this country and its future is f*cked.

Quite the optimist.:rolleyes:

caff

af_thefragile wrote: »

I put this out before, but i'll say it again.

What Ireland needs is entrepreneurs. Ireland needs more local businesses, more industries that could create a spin off infrastructure.

But, thanks to EU(SSR), we've got sky high taxes that stand affirmative at knocking out any new business that tries to grow in the country. Its also chasing off the foreign businesses that had set up bringing jobs and revenue to the country.

So for the future of Ireland, well, its just gonna scrape along the sidewalk of the road to globalisation.

I dont understand what the EU have to do with us having sky high taxes? Aren't our corporate taxe rates quite low by international standards? Isn't that what attracted all those multinationals here in the first place and currently has the US government up in arms about it?

thebouldwhacker

yea, were fooked.... as a nation we rode the wave of cheap credit and crashed on the rocks of inflated self worth (sorry greed).... trouble is the life gards who were put in place to protect our intrests were too busy rubbing the sun tan lotion of stupidity on each other... short term gain paid with someone elses pain...:mad:

waitingforBB

How are the EU to blame for our tax rates?
Corp tax here is lower than any of the big economic countries in the EU
Income tax rates are also self defined (and we are still a low tax coutry in that aspect in spite of the increases recently)

Can you clarify on what the EU effect on Irish taxation is?

Disease Ridden

Rb wrote: »

Well, we have a country full of people who kept probably the worst Government this country will ever see in power, throughout some of the best times our economy will ever see, to let them completely mishandle it and fail to secure our future in any shape or form.

As long as it remains that way, and the next G.E is no indication as the same utter morons will still, no doubt and unfortunately, be alive, this country and its future is f*cked.

The fact that this is true makes me so angry :mad:

zootroid

caff wrote: »

I dont understand what the EU have to do with us having sky high taxes? Aren't our corporate taxe rates quite low by international standards? Isn't that what attracted all those multinationals here in the first place and currently has the US government up in arms about it?

Yeah, but never let facts get in the way of a good rant!

Ireland will take years to recover, if at all. Labour costs are still too high (second highest in the EU if I remember correctly). Our workforce isn't as well educated as the government says it is. The numbers taking honours maths at leaving cert is still very low (something like 17%). We have one university that ranks in the top 50 around the world (Trinity). Our universities are just churning out graduates with Arts degrees and business degrees. Apologies to anyone with an Arts or business degree (I have one myself) but these aren't technical degrees that will generate ideas for new technologies.

Added to all this the government deficit, so that the government can't even invest in anything to make Irish businesses more competitive, and we have a real problem. The number of firms folding is very worrying as well. It is easier to keep a company going than it is to start a new one. Once a firm goes, so does all the knowledge and practices it had built up over the years.

greatdane

we have a lot of very open minded, intelligent entrepreneurs in this country.
What we need is a total re-adjustment of cost of living and general prices.
Ireland is overpriced , under efficient , and an "ere a sure" attitude country. Ever been to a dinner with a european or english person. They will complain if the steak isnt cooked right, the irish will eat it and pay, then complain outside to their friends. We need to stand up and vote with our feet.

Businesses are being ripped off with council rates, water rates, electricity, Employer prsi, sick days,broadband,phone costs, high costs of anything.

I hoping that we all see there can be a sustainable way of life without overpricing and general rip offs.
I am optimistic that this change in our economy is going to make us a better country overall..

on a side note for all of those depressed read the book

"who moved my cheese" - its only a few pages in length but a very inspirational read.

Shiny

One thing Ireland could be doing is become a worldwide "specialist" in the
areas of Ocean/Wind/(Possibly Solar) power generation.

It could be easily marketed, at the moment when people think of a country
that is green, they think Ireland. This could be easily built upon to
represent green technology also.

We would have to be careful with the physical construction of the devices
as we could be undercut by developing countries.

No one can argue that this area is going to be massive and I feel it is an
opportunity to get us out of the current situation.

---

We have a idle workforce ready to start this!

Layed off Builders, electricians, project managers, industrial workers

• - Building the Devices
• - Maintenance
• - Installaion
• - Site Preperation

Thousands of graduates who are graduating to the dole

• - R&D
• - Patenting the above

Declining Ad Revenues leading to excess in marketing personnel

• - Promote Devices

Volatile Stock Markets + Property Market(New areas of investment needed)

• - Long term investments in these devices/technologies/industry
• - Local community installations/Investments (ie 1 Large turbine for a town)

I'm sure there is loads of other things that could be added to this but its
just one example of a possibility that could be completely home grown.

caff

Shiny wrote: »

One thing Ireland could be doing is become a worldwide "specialist" in the
areas of Ocean/Wind/(Possibly Solar) power generation.

It could be easily marketed, at the moment when people think of a country
that is green, they think Ireland. This could be easily built upon to
represent green technology also.

We would have to be careful with the physical construction of the devices
as we could be undercut by developing countries.

No one can argue that this area is going to be massive and I feel it is an
opportunity to get us out of the current situation.

---

We have a idle workforce ready to start this!

Layed off Builders, electricians, project managers, industrial workers

• - Building the Devices
• - Maintenance
• - Installaion
• - Site Preperation

Thousands of graduates who are graduating to the dole

• - R&D
• - Patenting the above

Declining Ad Revenues leading to excess in marketing personnel

• - Promote Devices

Volatile Stock Markets + Property Market(New areas of investment needed)

• - Long term investments in these devices/technologies/industry
• - Local community installations/Investments (ie 1 Large turbine for a town)

I'm sure there is loads of other things that could be added to this but its
just one example of a possibility that could be completely home grown.

Similar plans have been proposed for the past 10 years by various people, so when is someone going to actually try and get any momentem behind it? Closest so far is the ESB's expansion plan and Cowens "smart economy" proposal from october that will probably never see the light of day. Its fine having nice ideas but someone with real leadership capabilities and most importantly strong business sense needs to take charge and put them into practice, the government certainly from past evidence have no will or accumen to.

ceret

Shiny wrote: »

One thing Ireland could be doing is become a worldwide "specialist" in the
areas of Ocean/Wind/(Possibly Solar) power generation.

It could be easily marketed, at the moment when people think of a country
that is green, they think Ireland. This could be easily built upon to
represent green technology also.

We would have to be careful with the physical construction of the devices
as we could be undercut by developing countries.

No one can argue that this area is going to be massive and I feel it is an
opportunity to get us out of the current situation.

---

We have a idle workforce ready to start this!

Layed off Builders, electricians, project managers, industrial workers

• - Building the Devices
• - Maintenance
• - Installaion
• - Site Preperation

Thousands of graduates who are graduating to the dole

• - R&D
• - Patenting the above

Declining Ad Revenues leading to excess in marketing personnel

• - Promote Devices

Volatile Stock Markets + Property Market(New areas of investment needed)

• - Long term investments in these devices/technologies/industry
• - Local community installations/Investments (ie 1 Large turbine for a town)

I'm sure there is loads of other things that could be added to this but its
just one example of a possibility that could be completely home grown.

Good in theory, however the government doesn't really have enough money to pay for things, let alone large scale projects like this.

AlekSmart

Good in theory, however the government doesn't really have enough money to pay for things, let alone large scale projects like this.

True,but only in as far as the Government has thus far failed to grasp the need to rein in the scary spending on a wide-ranging Social Welfare budget which funds everything from Mobile Telephone useage to Methadone whilst ensuring it remains Impossible for a legitimate small Irish business to accquire seed capital.

It`s all about priorities...and historically we have not been great at such stuff !

tattoodublin

I think people really need to step back and look at the bigger picture.

When I was a young lad in school in Canada I had a lesson that always stuck with me. Our teacher held a 20 dollar note up in the air and showed it to the class. He then asked us, "how much is this worth?" many bright eager young hands flew up into the air for such an easy question. asking a few of us, our repeated answers being "twenty dollars" he smiled. He told us that while we were right in one sense, we were wrong in another. Holding the bill and playing with it, he said, "you cant eat this, you cant wear it to keep you warm, you couldn't even burn it for warmth theres not enough there, its only a piece of paper", and he held up a blank sheet, "like this", he then smiled at us all, and said words I will never ever forget. "This piece of paper only has the value of the FAITH we put in it"
The western powers are selective in the news we see, most media only compares the dollar, euro and pound.......
On both a world-wide and national basis, the recession we are experiencing now is a purposeful and deliberate one. It is a "stage", the big money big power boys are busy playing ball.
First, shock the market ( Its been done before), then buy up all the bottomed out stocks at pennies on the dollars and take over the smaller insurance and banking companies that cant weather the storm.
Property devaluation naturally folows, this is desireable again, to economically enslave the masses (ie. negative equity), and at the same time, make properties more competitive for production bases.
Third, as things get worse financially for the masses, offer relief to the situation by "printing more money" (either physically, or as in this day and age, simply electronically).
Whle that sounds good, more money, more money, its not good, it devaluates the currency and lowers the value of the peoples savings, further deteriorating any low to middle class level wealths.
However, the 3 western Biggies, the dollar, euro, and pound, will decide behind closed doors to do this together roughly in unison, so that the masses, looking to the news, see no real fluctuation in relation to the comparative currencies they have been spoon fed.
BUT, all three will go down in value in relation to world currencies.
WHY? Why would they do this?
...many reasons,
First, to devaluate their debts to China, and diminish the value of China's savings (thats why China's upset).
There is a current upset in the apple cart, China is, perhaps rightfully and justly, trying to end the US dollar exclusivitey for world trade and IMF / World bank usage. We must remember that the US dollar isnt in fact a US government currency but in fact from the Federal Reserve, which is not "Federal" at all but a PRIVATLEY run banking enterprise.
Second, they know they cant ask people to take lower wages, so this in efffect forcibly lowers EVERYBODY'S wages, while the numbers stay the same, ...get it?
This in conjunction with the lowered property prices puts the western manufacturing barons in a more competitive stance on the world market.
The result is that foreign goods and raw materials become more expensive in the west, resulting in hyper-inflation (prices go up, up up) further deteriorating the wealth status of the poor and middle class.
Obviously, if these manouvers dont work enough for the Big Powerbrokers in the west, they will instigate a war, blaming of course, the other side.
China has worked very hard the last 60 years, and have won their gains fair and square through simple hard work, this means nothing to the big powerbrokers.
Why do you think the EU and Anglo-American power structure want this Lisbon treaty implimented?
Ireland and other EU nations then truly become EU states losing thier soveirenty ( and also neutrality)
Scour the hidden news about disagreements over territories between the US, Norway and EU .....and Russia, China and the Middle East. Look whos really behind the ongoing wars all over Africa.
Its a structural powerplay for resources.
Everything that is happening now is part of a much bigger picture. denial won't change that.
Look at your children and grandchildren. it is the youth of the poor and middle class that are sent out as cannon fodder in these wars, time after time. have we not learned anything from history? Or are we deliberatley too distracted?
There's alot more to all this financial turmoil than meets the eye.
AS A PEOPLE WE MUST ALL BECOME VERY WARY OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DECISIONS BEING MADE.
Do not sell off your freedom, liberties, future, soveriegnty, and most importantly, the youth, for a handful of jellybeans (or as in Manhattan island, a handful of colorful beads). Our forefathers gave up too much for these things, incuding their lives.

So, whats so important about Ireland? We dont have much in the way of natural resources etc. ....Well, in the event of a future war, perhaps we are the most strategically important defensible location for naval facilities, refeuling, and air bases, the "Hawaii " of europe and first stop-over from USA. Our Neutrality would be "a problem".

Please excuse my un-organised approach and any spelling mistakes as I am only some stupid tattoo artist and not some powerful knowledgeable politician or economist.

Pluto

SkepticOne

tattoodublin wrote: »

BUT, all three will go down in value in relation to world currencies.
WHY? Why would they do this?
...many reasons,
First, to devaluate their debts to China, and diminish the value of China's savings (thats why China's upset).
There is a current upset in the apple cart, China is, perhaps rightfully and justly, trying to end the US dollar exclusivitey for world trade and IMF / World bank usage. We must remember that the US dollar isnt in fact a US government currency but in fact from the Federal Reserve, which is not "Federal" at all but a PRIVATLEY run banking enterprise.
Second, they know they cant ask people to take lower wages, so this in efffect forcibly lowers EVERYBODY'S wages, while the numbers stay the same, ...get it?
This in conjunction with the lowered property prices puts the western manufacturing barons in a more competitive stance on the world market.
The result is that foreign goods and raw materials become more expensive in the west, resulting in hyper-inflation (prices go up, up up) further deteriorating the wealth status of the poor and middle class.

But the poor and middle classes in Ireland for the most either don't have much savings or are in debt. If they have net worth, it is likely to be invested in property. What the typical poor or middle class person is worried about is job security.

Your arguments make a lot of sense but for other countries, not Ireland and not for the typical struggling person in Ireland.

ionix5891

af_thefragile wrote: »

I put this out before, but i'll say it again.

What Ireland needs is entrepreneurs. Ireland needs more local businesses, more industries that could create a spin off infrastructure.

But, thanks to EU(SSR), we've got sky high taxes that stand affirmative at knocking out any new business that tries to grow in the country. Its also chasing off the foreign businesses that had set up bringing jobs and revenue to the country.

So for the future of Ireland, well, its just gonna scrape along the sidewalk of the road to globalisation.

what a load of rubbish, take your tinfoil hat off and quit whatever your smoking

please get your facts straight! Ireland has one of the lowest tax rates still of any OECD members



source
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Income_Taxes_By_Country.svg

Closest so far is the ESB's expansion plan

ESB are more or less told by the government not to touch green power in order not to hurt competition, and their "expansion" plan is about bringing generating capacity from currect ~50% to 27% of the countries electricity by shutting down old dirty plants

.

tattoodublin

SkepticOne wrote: »

But the poor and middle classes in Ireland for the most either don't have much savings or are in debt. If they have net worth, it is likely to be invested in property. What the typical poor or middle class person is worried about is job security.

Your arguments make a lot of sense but for other countries, not Ireland and not for the typical struggling person in Ireland.

If you dont think currency devaluation will have an effect on all people in Ireland then I guess maybe we are living on two different planets.
Once currencey devaluation occurs, hyper-inflation follows, as well as increased interest rates.
...Whole continents have shifted on this planet in the past, magnetic polar flips have occured , Ice ages have come and gone, warm ages ( there are ancient maps accuratley outlining the land coastline of antartica ) have come and gone, and humans have evolved.... any of those things can happen again much more quickly than you might think,... and to think that they cant occur again is just plain ignorance... SO... Do you really believe that interest rates couldnt rise again to 5%, 10%, 15% or higher? Do you really believe it IMPOSSIBLE for a loaf of bread to cost 10 euros? All things are connected.
Pluto

"This we know: All things are connected
like the blood which unites one family.
All things are connected.
Whatever befalls the earth
befalls the sons of the earth,
man did not weave the web of life.
He merely is a strand on it.
Whatever he does to the web
He does to himself."
CHIEF SEATTLE 1786 – June7, 1866

Shiny

ceret wrote: »

Good in theory, however the government doesn't really have enough money to pay for things, let alone large scale projects like this.

Technically they dont have to pay for it upfront.

If they increase the price which people get when
selling power back to the grid they can 'motivate' innovation
in this area, especially if they guarante it for 10 years or something.

I emailed my suggestion to the Taoiseach last week for the craic.
I will post the reply up here when I get one if anyone is interested.

I know similar suggestions have been proposed before but we did
not have the unemployemnt issues that we have now at that time.

Affable

markopantelic wrote: »

I'm genuinely curious about the prospects of this generation and what lies in store for Ireland and how can we adapt to this increasingly globalised world(obviously Ireland benefited greatly from globalisation)

Is Ireland simply too small to compete in this day and age and have we fallen too far behind to adapt? Could Ireland simply be gobbled up by globalisation.

Obviously the key for Ireland now is being innovative and creative but will this simply be enough? Remember that quote from the simpsons 'no matter how good you are at something there is always millions better than you', well are countries like Norway and Sweden in their own league and will Ireland forever lag behind, kinda like Uruguay without the good weather.

What I'm trying to say is could Ireland simply fail to adapt in this modern era?

I look around and I can't see what next even when the global downturn comes to an end.

Sorry for my simplicity, but I really am curious. Hopefully some you smarter people will be able to understand what I'm trying to get at.

Look, I wouldn't say Ireland was 'leagues' behind Sweden or Norway. Well, I prefer that those are more atheistic countries, but thats down to personal taste, Sweden is pretty advanced, but I wouldnt say Ireland does badly intellectually, it's got TCD, and similar social structure to Britian I gather, which aint half a bad place, which I believe must be a contender for best uni in Europe after Oxbridge, along with maybe Karolinska in Sweden. London too maybe?
It's economies done well. It's got better weather than Sweden and more hills:) It's got a common language with more countries. It's not overpopulated, it's relatively safe, I think Dublin is no worse than London or Paris that way, probably better tbh. People say the nightlife is good.
It only lags behind other parts of Europe in thats it's smaller, it's not a multi million population like Germany or France, but is that what counts anyway? Do you need international might if you got patriotism, and good living and culture and ambition within? Britain is way smaller and less powerful than the USA but I still prefer it. It's all relative. Ireland is no more likely to be gobbled up by Globalisation than anyone else, from what I gather you are reviewing your immigration policy seriously, which is more than we have done. Not to say I advocate racism, but at least you discuss it openly and try and figure out what you think. I suppose to be fair you do get more Brtiish influence through TV, but then we get American influence and we are not that like them too much. Ireland is in no sense to small to compete as part of the EU, none of us are, we could run the world as a single superpower. There's no reason why it can't happen. No law stopping it. And don't be too pessimistic, globalisation and (some)immigrants might not be as damning as you think. Cultures take influences and then make them their own. If you mean compete on it's own, well not in terms of output. But in terms of internal life, quality of life, innovation 'per capita', don't see why not.

SkepticOne

tattoodublin wrote: »

If you dont think currency devaluation will have an effect on all people in Ireland then I guess maybe we are living on two different planets.

I do think devaluation will have an effect on all people in Ireland. I just think that it will have different effects on different people.

Once currencey devaluation occurs, hyper-inflation follows, as well as increased interest rates.

This depends on the amount of devaluation.

...Whole continents have shifted on this planet in the past, magnetic polar flips have occured , Ice ages have come and gone, warm ages ( there are ancient maps accuratley outlining the land coastline of antartica ) have come and gone, and humans have evolved.... any of those things can happen again much more quickly than you might think,... and to think that they cant occur again is just plain ignorance...

Ah yes, the tectonic plates...

SO... Do you really believe that interest rates couldnt rise again to 5%, 10%, 15% or higher? Do you really believe it IMPOSSIBLE for a loaf of bread to cost 10 euros? All things are connected.

Sure it is possible. But there are times when inflation is the main worry and there are times when it is not. What I agree with you is that money should not be printed in an uncontrolled fashion leading to hyper inflation, but we're not talking about that here.

ionix5891

SkepticOne wrote: »

I do think devaluation will have an effect on all people in Ireland. I just think that it will have different effects on different people.

Yes it will hit the poorest especially hard

lets say 30% devaluation is same as 30% increase in tax across all tax bands (including people exempt from taxes in current system)

who would be hit the hardest someone earning 20k a year or someone earning 200k a year?

that 30% difference could literally mean life and death for the poorest, as i said before devaluation is a STEALTHY and FLAT TAX on EVERYONE which is wrong (i am in the higher tax band but i know too many good people on average and below average wage who would be hurt by devaluation and they wouldn't know what hit them)

.

SkepticOne

ionix5891 wrote: »

Yes it will hit the poorest especially hard

lets say 30% devaluation is same as 30% increase in tax across all tax bands (including people exempt from taxes in current system)

I think maybe you should re-examine this assumption as I feel this is where you are going wrong.

It is true that a weaker currency means that your euro (or whatever) has less buying power internationally but it does not equate to tax being hiked up 30%.

For example in the UK where the pound has undergone devaluation, for the most part, their pound buys much the same in terms of ordinary expenditure that it did before devaluation. Imported goods from countries that have not devalued have gone up, but most costs are locally generated. They have had some inflation but prices have not gone up a third overall, nowhere near that. 2.9% I think is the latest figure.

Even if prices did go up, it would merely be a reflection of the UK adjusting to the reality that they need to export to survive.

A lot of the argument against fiat currency (I think that is what this is about) involves a) simplifying things and b) taking the simplified model to extremes. The real world is slightly different.

ionix5891

SkepticOne wrote: »

I think maybe you should re-examine this assumption as I feel this is where you are going wrong.

It is true that a weaker currency means that your euro (or whatever) has less buying power internationally but it does not equate to tax being hiked up 30%.

For example in the UK where the pound has undergone devaluation, for the most part, their pound buys much the same in terms of ordinary expenditure that it did before devaluation. Imported goods from countries that have not devalued have gone up, but most costs are locally generated. They have had some inflation but prices have not gone up a third overall, nowhere near that. 2.9% I think is the latest figure.

Even if prices did go up, it would merely be a reflection of the UK adjusting to the reality that they need to export to survive.

A lot of the argument against fiat currency (I think that is what this is about) involves a) simplifying things and b) taking the simplified model to extremes. The real world is slightly different.

you do know that "official" inflation figures are so off the chart and have been tweaked to "look better" for so long now that they are meaningless

its true that in the UK (an economy magnitude bigger than Ireland) the local goods haven't went up much but everything imported has shot up by quite a margin (once the stocks started running out) and like any modern economy they have to rely on imported fuels and other commodities which are sold in $$$

I have several business friends from UK who would gladly tell their government where they should have shoved their devaluation and they are hurting for it now...

SkepticOne

ionix5891 wrote: »

you do know that "official" inflation figures are so off the chart and have been tweaked to "look better" for so long now that they are meaningless

Are you saying the real figure is 30%? Any evidence for that?

ionix5891

SkepticOne wrote: »

Are you saying the real figure is 30%? Any evidence for that?

it sure is not that high but no way in hell is it as low as the current official 4% being shown

im trying to find a certain journal article i read, quite lengthy but details how the official inflation figures in us, uk and eu have been "revised" in last few decades

in meantime heres are articles from last year worth reading
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/retirement/article.html?in_article_id=429792&in_page_id=6
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article4363016.ece

please do note that non of the inflation figures count housing (biggest asset purchase for most people) or rent and as we know this was hugely inflated in recent years and still is

also note that article was written back when fuel prices went crazy (they are not counted either :cool:) but after the pound lost a chunk of its value


lots of stats on this site about US http://www.shadowstats.com/ with some interesting graphs and articles showing how the figures are meddled with


heres the latest from the UK (article links to bank of england's official scary figures for the increased money supply) who also are increasing the money supply by printing money now (17% inflation last month :eek:), this money hasn't filtered yet to average joe but when it will, boom inflation

http://angloaustria.blogspot.com/2009/04/uk-inflation-rate-falls-to-176.html

lucky for the UK oil prices fell thru the floor and dollar not exactly doing mighty itself, things would have got much worse otherwise

.

SkepticOne

ionix5891 wrote: »

please do note that non of the inflation figures count housing (biggest asset purchase for most people) or rent and as we know this was hugely inflated in recent years and still is

So if they did include falling house prices in the UK inflation figures what do you think would happen? That's right, it would make the inflation figure even lower than it is.

ionix5891

SkepticOne wrote: »

So if they did include falling house prices in the UK inflation figures what do you think would happen? That's right, it would make the inflation figure even lower than it is.

i realize we've gone bit off topic here


have they been included

then yes for the last year it would have cause a downward pressure

BUT

for the last decade inflation figures then would have been in double digits, giving no excuse to central banks to keep rates low, and in turn the would have been no "crisis" now, as people wouldn't have indebted themselves up to their balls

NOW

we have all central banks printing money which will lead to inflation one way or another and rates are still low

anyways back on the subject of devaluation you brought up UK is a much larger economy than Ireland and dependent much less on the outside

Hasschu

Ireland is lucky to be in the EU and even luckier to be in the Monetary Union. The EU is protection against arbitrary trade sanctions similar to the ones the US imposed on Ireland in 1932, duties up to 60% overnight. The EMU protects us from interest rates of 12 to 15% which is what we would be paying if we had our own currency, the Punt would be punted out of the game entirely. Ireland is likely to enter a deflationary period this year lasting until 2011 when the jobless recovery will start. Inflation will start to pick up in 2011 but will not be serious because Germany in particular had hyperinflation in the 1920s' which led to economic collapse and the rise of the Nazi's in the thirties. The European Central Bank has indicated it will assist Ireland and that will eliminate anxiety about economic collapse. As far as jobs are concerned Ireland has priced itself out of the market and the US initiative on tax breaks for its overseas corporations means wages and other costs have to come down considerably before jobs can be created. The biggest risk for Ireland is political risk as the economy declines and unemployment rises, tax income declines and gov't has to cull more and more sacred cows. The electorate could rebel and vote in a solution that is worse than the problem, a la the Ukraine. Ireland is not the only country facing political risk. The sense of entitlement will take a couple of years to dissipate, it will be painful.