52% would now vote Yes to Lisbon

nesf

Full details here: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0518/1224246812146.html?digest=1

52% Yes (+1)
29% No (-4)
19% Don't Know (+3)

When undecided voters are excluded, the Yes side has 64.5 per cent, with 35.5 per cent in the No camp. That compares to the referendum result last June of 53.4 per cent No and 46.6 per cent Yes.

...

Among the well-off AB voters, the Yes side now has a strong lead of 67 per cent to 17 per cent, but among the less well-off DE voters, it is almost equally divided with 40 per cent Yes to 38 per cent No. In the C1 category, which comprises the biggest proportion of the electorate, the Yes side has a healthy lead of 56 per cent to 25 per cent. Farmers favour the treaty by 62 to 21 per cent.

Across the age groups, there is now a Yes majority in every category with the strongest support coming from those over 65.

Unsurprising given economic conditions but potentially very bad news for Libertas given how closely they are associated with the No campaign.

markopantelic

I'm a yes voter but I hate people who votes 'no' first time to spite the goverment.:rolleyes:

thats the level of people we have in this country, and as kent said 'democracy simply doesn't work'

i would much rather people who voted 'no' have a bit of conviction in their beliefs like the British and Swedes seem to have, but Irish are willfully ignorant. i mean you're either pro EU or anti-eu, you either feel european or you don't feel european(not sure about brits, but the swedes despite being eu skeptical would regard themselves as european in some form) you either have read the treaty in full and formed an opinion or you've done nothing to educate yourself on it. first nice is rejected, then accepted, then lisbon is rejected and looks like it will be accepted. that makes irish look stupid.

i know this is off on a bit tangent but i'd just prefer if the masses had a constructed option on what they want for ireland.

Scofflaw

markopantelic wrote: »

I'm a yes voter but I hate people who votes 'no' first time to spite the goverment.:rolleyes:

thats the level of people we have in this country, and as kent said 'democracy simply doesn't work'

i would much rather people who voted 'no' have a bit of conviction in their beliefs like the British and Swedes seem to have, but Irish are willfully ignorant. i mean you're either pro EU or anti-eu, you either feel european or you don't feel european(not sure about brits, but the swedes despite being eu skeptical would regard themselves as european in some form) you either have read the treaty in full and formed an opinion or you've done nothing to educate yourself on it. first nice is rejected, then accepted, then lisbon is rejected and looks like it will be accepted. that makes irish look stupid.

i know this is off on a bit tangent but i'd just prefer if the masses had a constructed option on what they want for ireland.

You can hardly say the average English eurosceptic has a fully informed opinion on Europe. Their eurosceptic politicians are definitely a cut above ours (either pro or con), but even quite well-educated and cosmopolitan English people are often in the grip of the most fevered fantasies about Europe - the usual ones being that the EU is a French or German plot to succeed where Napoleon or Hitler failed. The English are also quite libertarian - how they reconcile that with the NHS and security cameras gives some indication of how they approach thinking about the EU.

cordially,
Scofflaw

storinius

I think that it is also worth noting that the poll was conducted with reference to the amendments that are currently being negotiated. Specifically that Ireland will get to keep a permanent commissioner, and that guarantees will be given on the sensitive areas of abortion, neutrality and taxation. Now you can argue all you like over whether these guarantees are necessary, I personally don't think they are, but in all the research conducted after the Lisbon result these were highlighted by Irish people as of major concern.

I think that the government, or more accurately the Department of Foreign Affairs, have to be commended on identifying the most problematic parts of the treaty, and attempting to rectify them. We shall see in the vote on 'new deal' on Lisbon whether the Irish people accept the changes as meaningful or not.

ionix5891

what should be more interesting are the opinions of our people from various EU countries about Ireland

not only are we being the "difficult" child politically we are also the economic "brat" whose after blowing all the money on drugs and drink

interesting times interesting times

Dankoozy

markopantelic wrote: »

t. first nice is rejected, then accepted, then lisbon is rejected and looks like it will be accepted. that makes irish look stupid.

or else it just looks like the irish government is just good at persuading the public. there is no doubt a lot of money and effort has gone into getting the people to be in favour.

back when ireland joined the EU they went in with the ability to veto a thing like lisbon and maybe if that wasn't the case a lot of countries wouldnt have joined. so there is no shame in voting down a treaty, no reason anyone should be given a hard time about holding up progress towards the now inevitable EU superstate.

ionix5891

Dankoozy wrote: »

or else it just looks like the irish government is just good at persuading the public. there is no doubt a lot of money and effort has gone into getting the people to be in favour.

back when ireland joined the EU they went in with the ability to veto a thing like lisbon and maybe if that wasn't the case a lot of countries wouldnt have joined. so there is no shame in voting down a treaty, no reason anyone should be given a hard time about holding up progress towards the now inevitable EU superstate.

ah yes green lizard people, common world currency and rfid chips in everyone bring it on

as someone who did research into RFID i chuckle everytime i hear a conspiracy since the technology just sucks

PopeBuckfastXVI

storinius wrote: »

Specifically that Ireland will get to keep a permanent commissioner...

I think it's ironic that there's a consensus and push in the Country to remove some of the 'jobs for the boys' junior ministers at the national level, while forcing the EU to do the opposite!

I look forward to Ireland gaining the commissionership for shoe soles or some other made up job, which only exists because all 27 states *have* to have a commissioner.

If anyone reading this doesn't understand, it's like demanding that every constituency in the Country get's to nominate a minister in the government, and that a department has to be set up for that ministry.

And Liberats want to reduce bureaucracy and waste!?

As if!

Dob74

I wouldn't be to confident if I was a yes voter. The polls where similiar prior to last years vote.

Steviemak

Dob74 wrote: »

I wouldn't be to confident if I was a yes voter. The polls where similiar prior to last years vote.

Well at least the Yes side can put up posters saying

'Keep Our Commissioner' - Vote Yes
'Maintain Our Neutrality' - Vote Yes
'Keep our Corporate Tax Rate' - Vote Yes
'Don't let Libertas Destroy CAP' - Vote Yes
'Keep Our Constitution's Primacy on Abortion' - Vote Yes etc etc

If the Yes side can manage to do that (big if) then I think the arguments on the No side are greatly diminished!!

No more posters of smiling politicians with a Yes in the corner please!!

BlitzKrieg

Keep Our Commissioner' - Vote Yes
'Maintain Our Neutrality' - Vote Yes
'Keep our Corporate Tax Rate' - Vote Yes
'Don't let Libertas Destroy CAP' - Vote Yes
'Keep Our Constitution's Primacy on Abortion' - Vote Yes etc etc

almost makes me want to vote no...

Dob74

Steviemak wrote: »

Well at least the Yes side can put up posters saying

'Keep Our Commissioner' - Vote Yes
'Maintain Our Neutrality' - Vote Yes
'Keep our Corporate Tax Rate' - Vote Yes
'Don't let Libertas Destroy CAP' - Vote Yes
'Keep Our Constitution's Primacy on Abortion' - Vote Yes etc etc

If the Yes side can manage to do that (big if) then I think the arguments on the No side are greatly diminished!!

No more posters of smiling politicians with a Yes in the corner please!!

As far as I know the treaty wont have changed.

The yes side have a much stronger chance of winning. As long as they argue there positions and dont just attacking anyone who disagrees with them

,and assuming of course they read the treaty this time

Dankoozy

ionix5891 wrote: »

ah yes green lizard people, common world currency and rfid chips in everyone bring it on

as someone who did research into RFID i chuckle everytime i hear a conspiracy since the technology just sucks

wtf are you brabbling on about rfid's for what do they have to do with the lisbon treaty?


also the yes side will have this one
"Vote yes - avoid Lisbon III"

Hitman Actual

Dankoozy wrote: »

wtf are you brabbling on about rfid's for what do they have to do with the lisbon treaty?

Nothing. Doesn't mean it wasn't used as an issue by certain crazy sections of the No campaign to vote No, though.

ionix5891

Dankoozy wrote: »

wtf are you brabbling on about rfid's for what do they have to do with the lisbon treaty?

thats the thing nothing to do with it! just an observation about paranoia induced claims that where flying around last year

i still remember a certain girl from Galway telling me last year "haven't you seen Zeitgeist 'they' want a world government with microchips and single currency?" before marching off and lodging a no vote

Dankoozy wrote: »

also the yes side will have this one
"Vote yes - avoid Lisbon III"

well at least that would be the truth

something distinctly lacking in the claims made by the NO side

cheerfully
Ix

petronius

Changing the EU by this Bad 2nd hand Treaty! is bad for ireland, why change it for the worse.

More powerful EU President - could be Tony Blair! or Bertie!!!!???
Lisbon Treaty maintains the EURATOM Treaty - committing us to support Nuclear power!
For less influence - In percentage terms Germany 17% Ireland 0.5%
For less items with Ireland would have a veto on - qualified majority voting
If the EU refuse to accept our democratic wishes, why should they accept some supposed guarantees

Undemocratic!
Holland & France Vote No - the EU rebrand the Constitution the treaty so as they don't have a vote in France and Holland.
EU and governments terrified of people voting, so they don't have referenda on this in other countries.
Ireland Vote No to the Nice Treaty - we are forced to vote again
Ireland Vote No to the Lisbon Treaty - looks like the government will force us to vote again! The EU and Government - Bullying us to say yes!!

Pointless
If the Tory party in England get elected next year which polls suggest they shall scrap the treaty! And the EU will renegotiate it then!

Scofflaw

ionix5891 wrote: »

thats the thing nothing to do with it! just an observation about paranoia induced claims that where flying around last year

i still remember a certain girl from Galway telling me last year "haven't you seen Zeitgeist 'they' want a world government with microchips and single currency?" before marching off and lodging a no vote

There was a lamp-post sticker, wasn't there?

cordially,
Scofflaw

Scofflaw

petronius wrote: »

Changing the EU by this Bad 2nd hand Treaty! is bad for ireland, why change it for the worse.

More powerful EU President - could be Tony Blair! or Bertie!!!!???

Really not very powerful, in fact. A full list of the President's duties and powers is available in this forum.

petronius wrote: »

Lisbon Treaty maintains the EURATOM Treaty - committing us to support Nuclear power!

We've been signatories of EURATOM for a generation without any such effect.

petronius wrote: »

For less influence - In percentage terms Germany 17% Ireland 0.5%

First off, that simplistic pseudo-analysis has been repeatedly demonstrated to be meaningless, and second, the Council rarely votes, and when it does, it does so merely to mark someone's protest.

petronius wrote: »

For less items with Ireland would have a veto on - qualified majority voting

See above.

petronius wrote: »

If the EU refuse to accept our democratic wishes, why should they accept some supposed guarantees

Except, of course, that the EU hasn't implemented Lisbon in defiance of said wishes, and is asking us again for an answer by referendum (as per our rules) instead of some kind of fiat. The guarantees will be binding international agreements.

petronius wrote: »

Undemocratic!

Only if you have the wrong end of a bundle of sticks.

petronius wrote: »

Holland & France Vote No - the EU rebrand the Constitution the treaty so as they don't have a vote in France and Holland.
EU and governments terrified of people voting, so they don't have referenda on this in other countries.

The EU doesn't even write EU treaties. They're written by the governments, including ours. You should read the DFA White Paper.

petronius wrote: »

Ireland Vote No to the Nice Treaty - we are forced to vote again

You're free to abstain - or vote No. Nobody is forcing you to vote.

petronius wrote: »

Ireland Vote No to the Lisbon Treaty - looks like the government will force us to vote again! The EU and Government - Bullying us to say yes!!

The No side - scaremongering us to say No!

petronius wrote: »

Pointless
If the Tory party in England get elected next year which polls suggest they shall scrap the treaty! And the EU will renegotiate it then!

They won't scrap the treaty if it's been ratified. Only if we've voted No will the brave Tories bravely rescind the ratification of something that will not then have any hope of being implemented.

Do we really have to go through all this drivel again?

regards,
Scofflaw

P. Breathnach

Scofflaw wrote: »

... Do we really have to go through all this drivel again? ...

'Fraid so: for the slow learners.

Dankoozy

if it doesnt pass this time, will there really be a Lisbon III?

i would have thought that the government calling a Lisbon II after Nice II would have been enough to cause a riot and have every politician who supported it dragged out and flogged in public but I misunderestimated what the people here would put up with.

nesf

Dankoozy wrote: »

if it doesnt pass this time, will there really be a Lisbon III?

i would have thought that the government calling a Lisbon II after Nice II would have been enough to cause a riot and have every politician who supported it dragged out and flogged in public but I misunderestimated what the people here would put up with.

Considering that only 10% of those polled thought Ireland was worse off for being in the EU, it's not that surprising really.

Scofflaw

Dankoozy wrote: »

if it doesnt pass this time, will there really be a Lisbon III?

i would have thought that the government calling a Lisbon II after Nice II would have been enough to cause a riot and have every politician who supported it dragged out and flogged in public but I misunderestimated what the people here would put up with.

We wanted Nice II, and, indeed, we expected Nice II. People said "ah sure if we vote No they'll ask us again".

cordially,
Scofflaw

Dankoozy

Scofflaw wrote: »

We wanted Nice II, and, indeed, we expected Nice II. People said "ah sure if we vote No they'll ask us again".

cordially,
Scofflaw

so basically there is no point in voting no and they will keep at it until they get the answer they want?

Scofflaw

Dankoozy wrote: »

so basically there is no point in voting no and they will keep at it until they get the answer they want?

Not at all. If it's obvious that the people are unwaveringly opposed to something, and will simply keep voting No, then politicians are on a hiding to nothing by repeating the question, and even the most brass-necked politician will give up the policy in question rather than go on damaging their own credibility. Unfortunately, its far from clear that the majority of people are unwaveringly opposed to Lisbon, and a good deal of evidence that it was fashionable to vote No as a way of showing everyone how seriously we were to be taken, in the belief that it would be a cost-free exercise. Most people didn't pay any attention until the last couple of weeks, and many never bothered at all.

That we then entered an economic downturn is obviously coincidental, but that the ECB has already lent us more than our GDP to keep our banks afloat isn't. We voted to pull up the ladder because we were aboard, but it turned out we weren't.

Even so, and although you're voting what I would consider to be the wrong way, don't simply give up. Your vote does count, unless you choose not to use it. The government proposes (and can propose as often as it has the stomach for), but the people do choose.

cordially,
Scofflaw