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Why are people still listening to the ESRI???

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  • 18-05-2009 5:24pm
    #1
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭


    So they've come out with another doom and gloom prophecy about our economy. And everyone's silently accepting this fate without question.

    I mean this is the same organization which said our economy was fine, then said it was deteriorating but still had "strong fundamentals" and would recover quickly...

    Who can remember "2008 will be a bad year but then recovery in 2009"?
    Then it was "a small blip in 2009 but 2010 will really start the recovery"

    It seems clear to me that these guys simply don't know what they're talking about anymore. We have an unprecedented economic situation both at home and internationally, so IMO forecasting is impossible, and attempting to predict the outcome is useless. With all that being said, why are people allowing the ESRI to depress them? We allowed them to cheer us up last year and they couldn't have been more wrong...


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    #2
    P. Breathnach
    Registered Users Posts: 12,089 ✭✭✭✭P. Breathnach


    So who do you suggest that we listen to?


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    #3
    todolist
    Registered Users Posts: 813 ✭✭✭todolist


    They have no credibility.They got it so wrong that you cant believe anything they say.A totally discredited organization.


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    #4
    Daithinski
    Closed Accounts Posts: 279 ✭✭Daithinski


    Do they get paid for making wildly inaccurate predictions?

    If so, maybe the government could set up a C.E. scheme and get people off the dole to do the predictions. Preferably people with no skills at all.

    Of course, they couldn't be expected to get it right, but apparently this is also too much to expect from the ESRI.

    Think of the savings. Something for Brian Clowen to consider for his next "emergency" budget.


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    #5
    AARRRGH
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,382 ✭✭✭✭AARRRGH


    P. Breathnach wrote: »
    So who do you suggest that we listen to?

    Well, anyone other than the ESRI or people with a vested interest in talking up the economy would be a good start...


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    #6
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,507 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    P. Breathnach wrote: »
    So who do you suggest that we listen to?

    Why, Greenbear on thepropertypin of course.


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    #7
    zootroid
    Registered Users Posts: 784 ✭✭✭zootroid


    hatrickpatrick wrote: »
    I mean this is the same organization which said our economy was fine, then said it was deteriorating but still had "strong fundamentals" and would recover quickly...

    I thought it was Cowen that said that.

    Also, and I'm open to correction here, but I always thought the ESRI warned about the economy being too dependent on construction?
    hatrickpatrick wrote: »
    It seems clear to me that these guys simply don't know what they're talking about anymore. We have an unprecedented economic situation both at home and internationally, so IMO forecasting is impossible, and attempting to predict the outcome is useless.

    Do you realise how hard it must be to get it right? They are basically trying to predict the future, given the state of the situation at present.

    And I don't think it's a useless excercise, afterall, every company does it (forecasting its revenues and costs). It's one of the reasons why companies prepare budgets, and companies budgets are always out, either favourably or unfavourably, against actual results.


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    #8
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    zootroid wrote: »
    Do you realise how hard it must be to get it right? They are basically trying to predict the future, given the state of the situation at present.

    Absolutely, which is why I think is absurd that people are acting as if the economy is absolutely definitely going to swing that way.
    And I don't think it's a useless excercise, afterall, every company does it (forecasting its revenues and costs). It's one of the reasons why companies prepare budgets, and companies budgets are always out, either favourably or unfavourably, against actual results.

    But to be honest, in this case it's so impossible to predict the outcome that I just don't think it's worth it. When they come out with depressing stuff like this they make it more likely that people will stop spending and worsen the recession. They should at least make it clear that what they're doing is like trying to predict what the weather would be like if we were all living on another planet which we've never been on before. That's essentially what this economic climate is like. Completely unchartered territory.


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    #9
    gurramok
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    Get rid of that useless organisation and bring in Mystic Meg as both have the same wild guesses at predicting.


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    #10
    truebluedub
    Closed Accounts Posts: 106 ✭✭truebluedub


    P. Breathnach wrote: »
    So who do you suggest that we listen to?

    NIRSA - www.nuim.ie/nirsa


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    #11
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    hatrickpatrick wrote: »
    I mean this is the same organization which said our economy was fine...
    When did they say that?
    zootroid wrote: »
    Also, and I'm open to correction here, but I always thought the ESRI warned about the economy being too dependent on construction?
    Indeed; if I remember correctly, the ESRI have been warning of grossly inflated property prices since about ’04 (I think).
    hatrickpatrick wrote: »
    They should at least make it clear that what they're doing is like trying to predict what the weather would be like if we were all living on another planet which we've never been on before.
    Speaking of which, what’s the point in having weather forecasts? They’re never 100% accurate


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    #12
    truebluedub
    Closed Accounts Posts: 106 ✭✭truebluedub


    Moving this from the George Lee thread to one more suited for the topic:
    MikeC101 wrote: »
    Really? From my understand of the ESRI (I could be wrong)they have a main body of staff of a hundred or so, who are permanent, and they also have associates who are involved in studies (a lot of these are from academic institutions)

    But it's not a case of these guys living from contract to contract, fighting over the next job, they're all permanently employed, they just work on different studies from time to time - outsourced to governments / european initiatives etc.. (for extra money afaik)

    In regards to the associates who carry out the majority of the studies often without any direction from the core staff outside of the initial contract. They are in fact freelancers contracted generally from 3 months to 6 (either side of both figures are not unheard of). In modern research environments this is the norm for the majority of new phd's and ma's, they don't go straight into ivory tower academia. These researchers are dependent on the quality of their previous research to get new contracts. After about 5 - 10 years they generally settle down to a fixed job and certain income. In other words many of the ESRI's analysts (and those in other groups) have a more competitive environment then private sector economists.

    (This arose from a conversation on the George Lee thread about economists reliability but got very off topic)


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    #13
    Belfast
    Registered Users Posts: 1,355 ✭✭✭Belfast


    Esri should have been shut down long ago.


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    #14
    declanx
    Closed Accounts Posts: 46 ✭declanx


    todolist wrote: »
    They have no credibility.They got it so wrong that you cant believe anything they say.A totally discredited organization.

    My mother used to say "Even a broken clock is right twise a day"
    So the ERSI will claim credit when things get better, so will ZanuFF and ZanuFG.

    P.S. In the USA they are talking about a jobless recovery.

    http://www.forbes.com/2009/05/22/labor-recovery-jobs-markets-economy-gdp.html


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