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Trade

  • 18-05-2009 5:34pm
    #1
    Économiste Monétaire
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,208 ✭✭✭


    Some preliminary trade figures were released today, possibly a sign (for the EuroArea (EA), at least) that the collapse is levelling off... (No jokes about second derivatives.)

    trademonth.jpg

    tradegrowth.jpg

    A view on total trade from some countries:
    totaltrade.jpg

    EA exports to China fell 17% between the period Jan-Feb of '08 and '09, but imports only fell by 7%. Feel free to theorize and hypothesize about an incoming trade collapse or great recovery.


Comments

  • #2
    nesf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,644 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    Too early to tell I think. At least another month's figures is needed to draw any strong conclusions from it.


  • #3
    Économiste Monétaire
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,208 ✭✭✭Économiste Monétaire


    nesf wrote: »
    Too early to tell I think. At least another month's figures is needed to draw any strong conclusions from it.
    Aye, the data will also be revised (several times) over the coming months, it's effectively equivalent to inflation flash estimates. A positive sign would be the 30% drop in machinery and vehicles recovering. I'm not (realistically) expecting a recovery soon, but one can hope... Anyone else picturing Ricardo with a 'Yes, we can' placard?

    ricardoobama.jpg


  • #4
    silverharp
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,815 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    Japan's trade figures are terrible and the baltic index hasnt recovered. When I look at anything from the financial market side of the fence it still seem like we are coming to the end of bounce that started in Oct.

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



  • #5
    Économiste Monétaire
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,208 ✭✭✭Économiste Monétaire


    silverharp wrote: »
    Japan's trade figures are terrible and the baltic index hasnt recovered. When I look at anything from the financial market side of the fence it still seem like we are coming to the end of bounce that started in Oct.
    True, Japan's export numbers were a disaster, down nearly 50%.


  • #6
    Économiste Monétaire
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,208 ✭✭✭Économiste Monétaire


    :( Not so good figures for April

    EATradeApr09.jpg

    EATradeAnnualGApr09.jpg


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  • #7
    eamonnm79
    Closed Accounts Posts: 459 ✭✭eamonnm79


    RE THE FIRST CHART.
    Would an increase from feb to march be a normal seasonal factor. Or is it already seasonally adjusted?


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