Hung out to dry -Latest D Mc Williams offering

Sleepy

eamonnm79, that's fine if (like myself), you work in South Dublin. I count my blessings every morning when I turn off the N11 in Deansgrange just before the snarl up half a mile up the road.

On mornings when I'm working in City Centre, I'm looking at over an hour to get to the client site and I'm living in Brittas Bay which is twenty minutes or more up the road from Gorey. You also have to remember that the N11 is a road you'll see a squad car on at least once a week

P. Breathnach

Sleepy wrote: »

... You also have to remember that the N11 is a road you'll see a squad car on at least once a week

That should be irrelevant.

is_that_so

McWilliams needs to write something. I would call them conceits;clever little ideas that he bounces around for a while. Then he adds a peppering of pithy caricatures or labels , he gets some column inches in the Sindo and it does wonders for his continuing relevance. That's not to say that there isn't some truth in what he says but he "cleverly" recycles the same themes again and again. He's what Oscar Wilde would have written had he been an economist.

Electric Sheep

gurramok wrote: »

Contrast that to my class group of 1992, they nearly all went on the dole or to college or getting a one way ticket abroad which might start returning for the class of 2009.:mad:

There are much, much worse things than getting the one way ticket. For instance, getting the return ticket to Ireland during the Celtic Tiger. Those who did that were ****ed twice.

P. Breathnach

is_that_so wrote: »

McWilliams needs to write something. I would call them conceits;clever little ideas that he bounces around for a while. Then he adds a peppering of pithy caricatures or labels , he gets some column inches in the Sindo and it does wonders for his continuing relevance. That's not to say that there isn't some truth in what he says but he "cleverly" recycles the same themes again and again. He's what Oscar Wilde would have written had he been an economist.

That's a good description. And, no doubt, it helps to sell his books.

eamonnm79

djpbarry wrote: »

What's rubbish?

The bit where you said "It’s complete madness and it’s totally unsustainable"
thats rubbish.

djpbarry

eamonnm79 wrote: »

The bit where you said "It’s complete madness and it’s totally unsustainable"
thats rubbish.

Is it? You think it's perfectly reasonable for people to commute en masse to and from Dublin from over 80km away and for these people to expect an infrastructure to support their way of life? So where do we draw the line? At what distance from Dublin does it become unrealistic to commute to Dublin? From Athlone? Nenagh? Letterkenny?

nesf

He's a journalist with some economics background that writes fairly well about broad generalisations pegged together by a few anecdotal pieces of evidence. Calling it colour writing is overly generous, it's just another example of the victory of style over substance in the media in general, though arguably, it's this way because the people want it so. If McWilliams wrote like an economist, no one but the "anoraks" would read his stuff.

dreamlogic

We have big challenges that we need to take seriously, and a certain amount of disunity on the team. But things will get better, mainly because the international situation will eventually improve, and our boat will float on the rising tide.
....
we should tighten our belts and hang in there; things will eventually get better.

Sounds like Bertie or Charlie tbh. Belts tightening, boats rising... :mad:

P. Breathnach

dreamlogic wrote: »

Sounds like Bertie or Charlie tbh. Belts tightening, boats rising... :mad:

Come on, be fair: I'm not nearly as OTT as McWilliams. And my credentials as a sceptic are still good, because I wrote in the same post that "whatever parties are in government at the time will claim the credit."

Sleepy

P. Breathnach wrote: »

That should be irrelevant.

That was pretty much my point, driving from Gorey to south dublin in under 50 minutes would definitely require speeding...

brianthebard

Many here are saying that there's nothing new in this article and that its a fluff piece, but when most of the important people aren't facing up to this reality it needs to be reiterated until they do. The taoiseach is talking about economic recovery happening next year, but how, and at what price? There are housing estates, shopping centres, apartment blocks, etc littered across the country that are half finished or empty and never going to be filled. There are people living in silent desperation and their situation is only going to get worse. It makes me glad to be a student with only a few grand debt and an income of <4000 euro this year when I read about this stuff, because I'm in a better place than others my age or a few years older.

djpbarry

brianthebard wrote: »

Many here are saying that there's nothing new in this article and that its a fluff piece, but when most of the important people aren't facing up to this reality it needs to be reiterated until they do.

By “important people”, I presume you mean the powers that be? What about the people who are ultimately going to be responsible for turning this country around (if that ever happens – I’m not terribly optimistic), i.e. the electorate? My problem with pieces like this is that it is attempting to shift responsibility away from the people and toward the politicians. That’s not to say that politicians are in no way responsible for our current predicament, but people are ultimately responsible for their own actions (and that includes electing Fianna Fáil!). McWilliams refers to “victims” of the collapse of the property market as “the most potentially productive generation in the country”. Yet at the same time he’s claiming that these people have been “hung out to dry” by being duped into buying a property two counties away from where they work? Sorry, I don’t buy it.

Having said that, there is one statement in the article that I strongly agree with:

If a generation with young families is abandoned in the suburbs with no jobs and negative equity, they face three choices. First, they can emigrate if they can face the upheaval and find a place that might accept them. Second, they can stay here and snarl on the dole, possibly waiting for a political messiah to deliver them out of this darkness.

Third, they can rely on themselves, take things by the scruff of the neck and try to work their way out.

Over the coming years, I hope that they will do the latter.

However, as I said, I'm not terribly optimistic.

brianthebard

I agree, I wouldn't claim that those purchases were smart. But in Sligo (where I'm from) there are lots of buildings all around the county, which are technically fine for commuting from, but there isn't enough to go along with it in terms of infrastructure. Shop buildings and apartments have been thrown up all over the county with no regard for niceties like 'need' or 'markets' or any sort of research. It was just build and profit.

DJDC

McWilliams is a clever guy, youngest ever director within UBS at 27 and also headed up their EM research before moving on. He writes in a populist sensationalist style because that whats the Irish public likes and understands. Ireland is too small a country to have the likes of an FT or WSJ and we dont have any kind of real financial centre (IFSC is nothing more than a back office tax haven, no financial innovation occurs there). The market just isnt there for any kind of real analysis. I always get a much better impression of back home from FT alphaville or Bloomberg than the tabloid nonsense in the Independent or property advertising reliant Irish times.

djpbarry

brianthebard wrote: »

I agree, I wouldn't claim that those purchases were smart. But in Sligo (where I'm from) there are lots of buildings all around the county, which are technically fine for commuting from, but there isn't enough to go along with it in terms of infrastructure. Shop buildings and apartments have been thrown up all over the county with no regard for niceties like 'need' or 'markets' or any sort of research. It was just build and profit.

Yeah, sure; I saw the same thing where I grew up (in West Dublin). But there was still a requirement for a demand for these properties in order to make the supply profitable and that’s the part I have had difficulty understanding. You’re absolutely right in saying that many of these developments should never have been allowed (thank you very much Mr. Lawlor), but what I have never been able to understand is why people were prepared to pay such ridiculous amounts of money for these obviously badly-built properties in obviously badly-planned (or completely unplanned) towns and/or suburbs.

silverside

There is/was a lot of social pressure to buy

when the market was rising steadily (since about 1995) people jumped on the bandwagon, when you're in a shared house for years , dealing with sometimes annoying landlords and housemates, thinking about settling down, the attraction of your own place is very strong, even if it is in a greenfield site dotted around the m50 - you'll stretch to pay the first year mortgage, loan from the credit union/parents for the deposit, for the first year the discounted mortgage rate seems manageable - especially between 2

the lack of facilities (schools childcare etc) is not such a big deal when you're younger - the commute is just one of those things you put up with

Just trying to give a bit of perspective on why my generation bought...

Even now negative equity is only a huge problem if you want to move - its true that life in the outer suburbs can be a bit boring and hard to get places - but its not the end of the world, people have rooves over their heads and (up until a year or two ago) pretty decent money - blame Liam Lawlor and the brown envelope planners for the sprawl, blame the euro cheap money for the splurge !

eamonnm79

djpbarry wrote: »

Is it? You think it's perfectly reasonable for people to commute en masse to and from Dublin from over 80km away and for these people to expect an infrastructure to support their way of life? So where do we draw the line? At what distance from Dublin does it become unrealistic to commute to Dublin? From Athlone? Nenagh? Letterkenny?

The infrastructure is already in place as I explained, the N11.
I would say if it takes you more than an hour and if it costs you more than an hours wages in fuel its too much. So Gorey south Dublin is fine but gorey city centre if you have to travel in rush hour is not.

eamonnm79

Sleepy wrote: »

That was pretty much my point, driving from Gorey to south dublin in under 50 minutes would definitely require speeding...

Genuinely man I only had a 1 litre car with a top speed of 110 kmph. you only need to drive 60 miles an hour to do 50 miles in 50 mins. There is not one traffic light or junction the whole way.

DublinWriter

Peter Griffin is to Homer Simpson as David McWilliams is to Peter Brooks.

As for his earlier corporate achievements, read Dilbert and you'll know that the secret to fast-track executiveship is by having 'floppy-hair' ('we think it may turn silver').

eamonnm79

djpbarry wrote: »

Yeah, sure; I saw the same thing where I grew up (in West Dublin). But there was still a requirement for a demand for these properties in order to make the supply profitable and that’s the part I have had difficulty understanding. You’re absolutely right in saying that many of these developments should never have been allowed (thank you very much Mr. Lawlor), but what I have never been able to understand is why people were prepared to pay such ridiculous amounts of money for these obviously badly-built properties in obviously badly-planned (or completely unplanned) towns and/or suburbs.

The amount of financial acumen and economic intelligence you expect normal joeblogs people to have is completely unfair and unrealistic. You are also forgetting that there are many people over 50 in this country who cant read and write.
The reason for having a state and laws is to protect us from ourselves.
The way free marketeers expect working class people to all have IQ's over 110 is completely unrealistic and disingenious.
I can see you do but you are lucky, and you shouldnt forget that.
It is the job of the government of the day to help protect and stand up for the citizens thats why we have democracy.
I know politicians flout this on a minutely basis but that is what is supposed to happen. And when it doesnt people have a right to complain.

dreamlogic

P. Breathnach wrote: »

Come on, be fair: I'm not nearly as OTT as McWilliams. And my credentials as a sceptic are still good, because I wrote in the same post that "whatever parties are in government at the time will claim the credit."

If fairness is important to you, I would suggest not dismissing a person's work straight away as "a piece of color writing". Being a talented writer does not preclude having a substance to the argument. If you take issue with his arguments then challenge those arguments. Dismissing the style of delivery and then not accepting similar criticism of your own style of delivery(use of well-worn Haughey-style cliches) is a bit hypocritical here.

As for your point about governments taking the credit, I omitted that point simply because it is an irrelevancy. Obviously the parties in government will try to take credit. Nothing new tbh.

And sorry if it appears to you that I'm dismissing your credentials as a sceptic. I don't know you at all so that is not my intention here. We can only go by what is written in the thread.
I have heard more than enough of these cliches out of the mouths of leaders who are belt-tightening when it comes to public service, and peddling the rising tide lifts all boats crap when it comes to protecting bankers, builders et al.
I'm not necessarily suggesting that this is your view.
I'm only countering your dismissal of McWilliams based on disagreement with his style of delivery.

declanx

I'm a fan of DMcW, liked him on Newstalk in the morning...
Anyway I AM a guy in his late 30's from Dublin, bought the house in Navan (2002) Meath, had two kids, two cars and a dog there and suffered the N3 death trap every morning to Dublin...and then bang: Boss said cutbacks. Took DMcW first option: Sold the house, didn't loose any money and emigrated with my family to northwestern USA. Now my drive to work is under 10 mins, get home for lunch every day, my stress level has dropped and the family love it. Oh yeah its 23C and sunny.
I'm lucky, but if/when I go back to Ireland I will have nothing there.

truebluedub

McWilliams is trying to create a realm of 'public economics' this is more common in Sociology but he deserves kudos for trying. Basically this is what several posters have noted: making economics accessible.

P. Breathnach

dreamlogic wrote: »

... I'm only countering your dismissal of McWilliams based on disagreement with his style of delivery.

What sort of nitpicking crusade are you on?

My opinion of this McWilliams piece involves more than a view on his style of delivery. And I stand over my view that it is a piece of colour writing.

dreamlogic

P. Breathnach wrote: »

What sort of nitpicking crusade are you on?

Well I am sorry if you feel offended, but there was nothing personal about my remarks whatsoever. Anyone can post here if their comment is relevant to what is being discussed. I hardly think the short comment I posted amounted to a "crusade" :rolleyes:

P. Breathnach wrote: »

My opinion of this McWilliams piece involves more than a view on his style of delivery. And I stand over my view that it is a piece of colour writing.

I didn't argue with your view. Stand over whatever you like.

P. Breathnach

dreamlogic wrote: »

Well I am sorry if you feel offended, but there was nothing personal about my remarks whatsoever. Anyone can post here if their comment is relevant to what is being discussed. I hardly think the short comment I posted amounted to a "crusade" :rolleyes:

I'm not offended. I'm perplexed.

You are highly selective in how you represent what I have said, to the point that it is a distortion. I wonder why.

Joey the lips

I usually only give the thumbs up but have to have it heard, I am a huge fan of david mc williams and rather that be critical I think he has achieved the only thing that no modern economist has achieved!

He has made economics simple! Guess what dave I live in knightsbridge and your scareing the sh1t out of me!

dreamlogic

P. Breathnach wrote: »

I'm not offended. I'm perplexed.
You are highly selective in how you represent what I have said, to the point that it is a distortion. I wonder why.

You replied to my comment with the remark: Come on, be fair. Implying that my comment was somehow unfair. My next post was in response to that. If either of my posts were out of line, then please accept my apologies. Like I said I don't know you from adam so how could it have been anything personal.
I'll leave now and let the discussion get back on topic.

silverside

credit where credit is due, he is loudly banging a drum that very few others with a public profile are, and he's generating awareness. Of course its great for him too as it means he sells more books.

I'm just a bit disappointed at his cliches (breakfast roll man, deckland) and feel he's doing it to death at the moment, it would be good to have more public commentators who are willing to debate the issues. I can only think of a handful (Garret Fitzgerald, Brendan Keenan) who have the awareness to make sense - there are a lot of John Waters types who just bash the banks and seems to want to live in a Dancing-at-the-crossroads-Mark-II republic with no rich people and no poor people.