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HEC Final: Leicester Tigers v Leinster - pre/during/post thread
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21-05-2009 7:59pm#1
Leicester Tigers v Leinster
Saturday 23 May 2009, 5.00pm (Irish)
Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Live on Sky Sports 1 (UK & Ire), RTÉ Radio, Setanta Sports (outside Europe)
Leicester|No.|Leinster
Geordan Murphy (c)|15|Isa Nacewa
Scott Hamilton|14|Shane Horgan
Ayoola Erinle|13|Brian O'Driscoll
Dan Hipkiss|12|Gordon D'arcy
Alesana Tuilagi|11|Luke Fitzgerald
Sam Vesty|10|Jonathan Sexton
Julien Dupuy|9|Chris Whitaker
Marcos Ayerza|1|Cian Healy
George Chuter|2|Bernard Jackman
Martin Castrogiovanni|3|Stan Wright
Tom Croft|4|Leo Cullen (c)
Ben Kay|5|Malcolm O'Kelly
Craig Newby|6|Rocky Elsom
Ben Woods|7|Shane Jennings
Jordan Crane|8|Jamie Heaslip
Leicester Tigers replacements: 16 Benjamin Kayser, 17 Julian White, 18 Louis Deacon, 19 Lewis Moody, 20 Harry Ellis, 21 Matt Smith, 22 Johne Murphy.
Leinster replacements: 16 John Fogarty, 17 Ronan McCormack, 18 Devin Toner, 19 Sean O'Brien, 20 Simon Keogh, 21 Rob Kearney, 22 Girvan Dempsey.
Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales)
Touch judges: tbc
Fourth Official: Christophe Berdos (France)
Another huge day for Irish rugby, in what has been a sensational 2009 thus far. A first Grand Slam in sixty-one years, a record number of Irish Lions tourists, followed by a club record attendance for the HEC semi-final provincial derby in Croke Park, and then Munster's coronation as Magners League champions. The missing piece of the jigsaw puzzle: Leinster's maiden Heineken Cup victory.
Having come into the semi-final as huge underdogs against a Munster team which was the form side in NH club rugby, Leinster upset the odds and blew their provincial rivals away with a performance which blended the very best of forward grunt with backline incisiveness. Too many outstanding performers to have a clear-cut man of the match, there was a sense after the initial elation that this could have been Leinster's final. Just like Mayo's All-Ireland semi-final victory in 2006 over a fancied Dublin team, is there a danger that Leinster have peaked too soon and will be a shadow of their semi-final selves come Saturday?
Certainly the subsequent Magners League performance against an albeit poor Scarlets team may have laid those doubts to rest, and it was a brave decision by coach Michael Cheika to name a frontline side for that fixture. An injury to a Brian O'Driscoll or Rocky Elsom would've created uproar among the critics, but thankfully a clean bill of health can be reported in advance of the team announcement. Isa Nacewa's performance at full-back in the semi-final and the lingering effect of Rob Kearney's illness mean that it would be unthinkable to drop the Fijian star, who has recently shown the sort of form that persuaded Leinster to sign him last summer. Equally, Shane Horgan's resurgence and big-game experience and Luke Fitzgerald's irresistible form look likely to ensure that the same back three who played in the semi-final will line-out on Saturday afternoon. For the English side, Ireland's own Geordan Murphy is in fine form, and will captain the side, while outside him there's a big call to be made between Johne Murphy and the huge Samoan Alesana Tuilagi , who returns from suspension. Johne Murphy has done well of late, but Tuilagi's physical impact is obvious, and he may get the nod to provide some punch out wide.
At centre the famed pairing of Brian O'Driscoll and Gordon D'arcy will look to replicate the sort of performance that contributed to the latter half of Ireland and Leinster's 2009 season. Certainly D'arcy may also feel like he has a point to prove to the Lions coaching staff, who decided against replacing the injured Tom Shanklin for the tour of South Africa. He will look to neutralise the effect of Dan Hipkiss, who is key for the Tigers midfield, and if he can, it will be a big start for Leinster. At halfback, Chris Whitaker has performed of late with the sort of efficiency and urgency that has been missing from the earlier part of his campaign. He will also look to sign off this Leinster career in style, and will provide an experienced head alongside the emerging Jonathan Sexton. Whitaker's battle with recalled French international Julian Dupuy will be interesting, and Dupuy's goal-kicking will need to be solid to ensure Leicester can keep the scoreboard moving.
Felipe Contepomi's injury in the early stages of the semi-final was a huge loss to Leinster, who looked like they might be on the ropes after Cian Healy's sin-binning. Sexton showed remarkable composure to slot a difficult penalty with his first kick of the game, before going on to marshal the backline into a famous victory. Sexton's performance in that game and the subsequent Scarlets game ensure that he heads into the final in rude form, and while he may be targeted by the Leicester backrow, he's shown some mettle so far and could be a key player in the outcome. Equally, Sam Vesty has been a revelation at outhalf, after spending a lot of time as a utility back, he seems to have found his niche in the number 10 jersey keeping out Toby Flood.
The Leinster pack boasts a mix of youth an experience from one to eight, and Cian Healy and Stan Wright's development in the scrum was apparent in the Munster games this year, where Leinster were able to match the current holder's shove. Injury doubts about Martin Castrogiovanni mean that Richard Cockerill will make a late decision on his prop, who can call on Julian White as a readymade replacement. Bernard Jackman's throwing was one of the obvious flaws in the semi-final, and he will need to improve his darts and communication with his jumpers to have more effect. Leinster cannot afford to cough up possession on their throw, and Leo Cullen, Malcolm O'Kelly (who had a huge steal on Munster's line-out in the closing minutes of the Croke Park game) and Rocky Elsom will also be critical in the effectiveness of Leinster's line-out. Certainly Elsom has arguably had the biggest impact on Leinster's season, with his dynamic running and ball-carrying only matched by a massive defence and outstanding reading of the game. No matter where his future lies, he's a potential match-winner for Leinster, and Leicester will have their hands full with the Wallaby.
The other Leicester old-boy Shane Jennings will more than likely partner Elsom and another Lion Jamie Heaslip in the backrow, and Jennings work on the deck will be crucial to slow down Leicester ball and give Leinster a chance at turnover ball. There will be an interesting battle between this trio and the Tigers backrow, which will include new Lion Tom Croft, semi-final shootout hero Jordan Crane, and possibly Ben Woods or former All Black flanker Craig Newby. Leinster should have an edge in the backrow battle, and will need to use the dynamism of Elsom and Heaslip to make inroads into the Tigers territory, while ensuring that Sexton remains protected. Discipline will also be key for Leinster, as they cannot afford to play any part of the match down a man, and as Leicester showed in their semi-final against the Blues, they are prone to yellow cards, which let the Blues overcome a 14-point deficit in the closing minutes. If referee Nigel Owens' recent habits are anything to go by, he'll let the opening handbags pass with a stern warning to both sides to get on with playing rugby. Leinster should have the smarts not to get involved in confrontation if the Tigers decide to push the envelope, while at the same time not backing down and conceding anything.
Leicester have not yet had a performance this season that comes close to Leinster's in their semi-final. Despite that, they are serial finalists, and in their fifth appearance in the HEC final, they are looking to join Toulouse as the only three-time winners of European's club rugby's premier competition. They come off Saturday's GP Final victory over London Irish safe in the knowledge that they have some silverware, and could possibly play with a bit more freedom than if this was an all-or-nothing game to define their season. If Leinster can play to their potential, then it's difficult to see how the Tigers can match up, but Leicester's big-game experience will count for something. Leinster cannot afford to get drawn into a forward-orientated battle, where as Leicester showed on Saturday, they are past masters of dictating the game when it's tight and close. The Leinster defence has been outstanding of late, as highlighted in the Harlequins and Munster games, but they need to ensure a healthy balance to their game and play it wide and fast when necessary which they failed to do in the quarter-final. Aerial bombardment will not be a problem for Geordan Murphy, and hopefully the endless kicking will not define the game.
Despite Leicester's win on Saturday, and the pressure that might relieve, it still looks like Leinster have the mustard to be victorious. Based on opposing strengths, potential and form, Leinster are favourites, but they are in uncharted waters here in their first final. It remains to be seen how this pressure is handled by youngsters such as Healy and Sexton, but the new found confidence amongst the squad, coupled with the Irish player's successes in high-stakes matches this season, show that if harnessed correctly the big game pressure can be used effectively. Expect the opening quarter to be cagey from both sides, but it's whoever breaks free from the pressure of expectation that will prevail. Early scores will be vital to settle nerves, and the place-kickers as usual have a big part to play. Really, it's too close to call, and if Leinster lose then the semi-final victory will be rendered meaningless. They looked set to continue their form of late, and although it will be a shame if it all goes horribly wrong, its in their hands to put all the jibes and ghosts to rest and create their own piece of history.
I expect it to be very close, but barring a monumental collapse by the Irish side, I'll say Leinster by within 7.
Past five meetings:
Jan 2008: Leicester Tigers 25 Leinster 8 (HEC Pool 6)
Nov 2007: Leinster 22 Leicester Tigers 9 (HEC Pool 6)
Apr 2005: Leinster 13 Leicester Tigers 29 (HEC 1/4 finals)
Jan 2002: Leicester Tigers 29 Leinster 18 (HEC 1/4 finals)
Jan 2000: Leicester Tigers 10 Leinster 32 (HEC Pool 1)
Odds (paddypower.com): Leicester Tigers 10/11; Draw 18/1; Leinster 10/11Who will win the HEC final? 159 votes
Leicester Tigers0%Leinster20%
32 votes
Don't care - when's the Champions League final on man??79%
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127 votes
34
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I was waiting for this post. As usual, up to your usual excellent standards Juvenal.
It would be a tragedy if Leinster lost this. I personally dont think they will. Too many of the team know its possibly their last hurrah for them to go out with a whimper.
Gwan Leinster!!
Cant believe I said that
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Don't care - when's the Champions League final on man??Heading to bed shortly as we've to be on The Quays for 7:00am to pick up the coach to Belfast and onwards to Edinburgh.
Here's to a great weekend with Leinster winning the title and Geordan Murphy getting man of the match. That'd be sweet.
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LeinsterLeicester by 3 or 6
To say leinster will pull away in the last quarter (or indeed at all) is a bit mad to be honest.If they believe half of what has been written in the press then i can see the Tigers winning easily.
We shouldn't cod ourselves - when was the last time Leinster thrived under the favourites tag?0 -
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Don't care - when's the Champions League final on man??Four-Percent wrote: »Leicester by 3 or 6
To say leinster will pull away in the last quarter (or indeed at all) is a bit mad to be honest.If they believe half of what has been written in the press then i can see the Tigers winning easily.
We shouldn't cod ourselves - when was the last time Leinster thrived under the favourites tag?
Leinster are not favourites. Where is this coming from?0 -
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Don't care - when's the Champions League final on man??Four-Percent wrote: »Leicester by 3 or 6
To say leinster will pull away in the last quarter (or indeed at all) is a bit mad to be honest.If they believe half of what has been written in the press then i can see the Tigers winning easily.
We shouldn't cod ourselves - when was the last time Leinster thrived under the favourites tag?
Leinster are a lot fresher and have more players that are used to test match intensity,so its not really mad.
They arent favourites it either leicester or as some bookies have it even stevens.0 -
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LeinsterI'm feeling nerves already and its only friday.
Regretfully I cant afford to go over though.
I want to see Murrayfield dominated by the Blues
I want to see Leo the Lion being dragged off a concussed Leicester Tiger mascot
I want so much to see Cullen and BOD both lift the cup to blue/yellow fireworks behind them.
(if I think about this hard enough surely its going to happen!)0
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