North Korea, wrong attitude

SeanW

Manic Moran wrote: »

In fairness, treaties be damned: There's a different between "cannot" and "should not." All it takes is an authorised launch order.

You misquoted me, that sentence started with "Under the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty ..."

Of course any of the nuclear powers whether within the NPT or not, can use a nuclear weapon any time they like. The Big 5 are simply legally restricted in that respect.

I do recognise though that this would be cold comfort to anyone whose country gets nuked.

The question, to my mind, is whether we would prefer to have these nukes held by the Big 5, who for the most part have sane leadership and are not continuously behaving in a belligerant way, or some demented Stalinist fruitcake who constantly threatens their neighbors, who kidnapped and is still holding some Japanese people, is constantly and as a matter of course making border raids into South Korea - the world will be much worse place if they're allowed to build and maintain a nuclear arsenal.

nacho libre

랴연 wrote: »

Defectors have proven to have false claims before, e.g > claiming to know more then they do. It makes money for them. Many of them have a very hard time when they defect, they are completely incapable of taking care of themselves, coming from a communist country to a capitalist one,especially one as capitalist as South Korea can be a huge shock.

I'm not saying its definitely false because I don't know, but I live in Korea and I've done enough research on the subject to know that what you quoted doesn't sound even similar to anything I've heard before.

it's interesting you mention the shock for North Koreans living in South Korea, because i read an article this evening in National Geographic about North Koreans fleeing for a better life in South Korea. One escapee said it was akin to jumping a century.

i believe the defector was a former North Korean general now living in America. Although you are probably right, even a senior defector, as Chalabi proved, may well embellish what he or she knows for a variety of reasons.

anyway, this is the article if you want to read it
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2009/02/north-korea/oneill-text

nacho libre

the_syco wrote: »

Because of this, I doubt he'll be killed off anytime quickly. Also, I doubt the Chinese would be stupid enough to piss off a neighbour who can make nukes, can fire long range rockets, by trying to kill him. .

The Chinese would not want to be seen to do it. However, it is believed out of all the intelligence agencies, China's security services are the ones most likely to have senior informants within his regime. if they felt Kim was endangering their interests i think they would encourage a coup against him by senior figures within Kim's regime who felt he was leading them to a precipice. of course there is no guarantee of success but if China felt war between Korean and America was inevitable i believe they would take the risk of trying to remove him.

랴연

nacho libre wrote: »

it's interesting you mention the shock for North Koreans living in South Korea, because i read an article this evening in National Geographic about North Koreans fleeing for a better life in South Korea. One escapee said it was akin to jumping a century.

I actually used to meet many of them on a regular basis, I was a volunteer to teach them English but I had to stop going for various reasons. Might start going again. They're very interesting people.

랴연

nacho libre wrote: »

i think they would encourage a coup against him by senior figures within Kim's regime who felt he was leading them to a precipice .....

Why do people assume the DPRK is a 1 man dictatorship ? Kim is certainly the top guy and considering the Confucianist nature of the culture it makes sense. But you don't run a country on your own these days.

GuanYin

Rojomcdojo wrote: »

The only people who would ever be able to stop them are the Chinese.

Who are in a very curious position with them. So strongly tied to them in trade, but uncomfortable with NK nuclear programs.
However...

랴연 wrote: »

The North will bite if they are pushed too far, out of necessity if nothing else.

No they won't. They won't risk upsetting China. The nuclear program is a way of playing with the big boys. China is strategically and commercially linked to NK and NK has to ensure China is on it's side.

the_syco wrote: »

Also, I doubt the Chinese would be stupid enough to piss off a neighbour who can make nukes, can fire long range rockets, by trying to kill him.

Are you kidding me? NK is no threat to China at all. Apart from the fact that China is NKs major exporter, China has nukes and the means and most likely the ruthlessness to crush NK. It wouldn't be pretty, but NK wouldn't last very long.

ilkhanid wrote: »

Anyway, North Korea is allied with China, and since China is wary about an ally of the US on its borders, there is no way it would countenance any USA armed action against North Korea, without getting involved. China and the United States know that, and China would have no reason to persuade the North Koreans to the contrary. It already has fought one war to keep American troops away from the Yalu river. So under china's nuclear umbrella North Korea has less reason to need nuclear weapons than West Germany had during the cold war.

Except that China has already (in 2006) risked relations with NK by supporting UN resolutions against NK for...den den den... testing nuclear weapons.

Admittedly, the UN had to redraft the resolution to remove a bit about trade embargoes, but the fact is China didn't want a known lunatic testing weapons near them.

In fact, if reports are accurate, even China is beginning to lose patience with it's troublesome neighbour. I agree with the Petethebrick above who believes that North Korea thinks the USA is weak. The North Koreans are not frightened, they are aggressive and cynical. They think the rest of the world owes them a living and that when their lunatic totalitarian regime can't fend for itself that others should provide the means for it to do so.

Again, I seriously doubt NK would risk a conflict with China.