Poll shows rise in support for Labour

Sully

The latest opinion poll shows Fianna Fáil is still on course for a disastrous result in the local and European elections.

The tns/MRBI poll for tomorrow's Irish Times shows Labour is the only party to show significant improvements since the last poll a fortnight ago.

If Fianna Fáil were hoping for a late surge in support as this election campaign enters its final week - there is no sign of it yet.
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The latest poll shows the party's support at just 20%, down one point since the last Irish Times poll two weeks ago.

Fine Gael are down two, but are still by far the biggest party, with 36% support.

Labour are the only gainers in this poll - they are up three points to 23%, in second place ahead of Fianna Fáil.

The Greens are unchanged at three, Sinn Féin drop one to eight, and Independents and others are up one to 10.

Satisfaction with the Government is up slightly, by two points to 12% - but 84% remain dissatisfied with its performance.

Satisfaction with the Taosieach is also up, by three points, but at 21% he still has the lowest satisfaction rating.

Eamon Gilmore retains the highest satisfaction rating, at 49%, though this is down two points in a fortnight.

Source: http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0528/poll.html

Interesting turn around. Up/Down for Labour & FG over last few polls. I guess the smaller patys just have their core support plus small group of floating votors.

jank

Labour now the 2nd biggest in terms of support, FF in 3rd.

Roll on next week!

Raiser

McDonald's have already stated they they will not employ disgraced, dishonest, dismissed Fianna Fail Politicians on principle......

.......This time next Month Brian Cowen will be manning a wheelbarrow on a building site in Poland.......

nesf

Sully wrote: »

Source: http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0528/poll.html

Interesting turn around. Up/Down for Labour & FG over last few polls. I guess the smaller patys just have their core support plus small group of floating votors.

It's all margin of error stuff tbh. FF and Labour are somewhere in the low 20's. FG in the mid 30's and so on.

Sully

nesf wrote: »

It's all margin of error stuff tbh. FF and Labour are somewhere in the low 20's. FG in the mid 30's and so on.

Do you think there is change?

InFront

jank wrote: »

Labour now the 2nd biggest in terms of support, FF in 3rd.

Roll on next week!

I would be careful about translayting these results into local election results. There are three issues

1. Voters do not always associate local candidates (who after all have been in their living rooms, eating their Mikados, asking about how John is getting on in UCD), with Big Bad Biffo
2. Never underestimate the Fianna Fail canvassing machine between now and Friday
3. Don't assume that voters are always honest with pollsters

I am not one for making predictions, but it is true that opinion polls tend to flatter the opposition parties. Fianna Fail will lose a significant number of seats, but I actually do not think they will lose as many as they lost in 2004, or at worst they may match that loss again. That will be a big blow to them, but it won't be anywhere close to FF wipeout.

nesf

Sully wrote: »

Do you think there is change?

It's almost impossible to tell. If there was no change you'd still expect numbers to vary by 1-2% realistically when resampling, if not much more. As is often overstated, one poll means nothing.

What we can be sure of is that FF is at it's lowest ebb in its history and that FG are at their highest.

is_that_so

The most important change , in the context of next week, I would say is the jump in support for Independents and others. Typically local elections can throw up all sorts of voter capriciousness and reasonably presentable non-party individuals can be in with a shout. Many constituencies require less that 1000 votes to get elected.

I think the problem the FF machine will have is convincing anyone that they are worth voting for in the current ABFF environment. Last time out we were still in good times. Even though Cowen is back into opposition-bashing I am not sure how many will listen to him.

While Labour might be pleased that Gilmore has such a high rating, Gerry Adams consistently had good ratings but it never converted to seats. That to me is Gilmore's real challenge.

lostexpectation

whats all this talk of fg being the biggest party (they don't qualify it to say 'in terms of support')

your not ff still are, and liley to be even after a general election.

lostexpectation

i hear talk of labour lake of candidates in order to take full advantage of poll gains, whats labours problem getting candidates

Stroke Politics

lostexpectation wrote: »

i hear talk of labour lake of candidates in order to take full advantage of poll gains, whats labours problem getting candidates

Running an election is an expensive business, and the LP membership would be small by comparison to FG and The Sick & Indigent Developers friendly Society, and can't call on the same level of financial support.

Having said that, the only county that the LP are not running candidates is Roscommon, and it's not due to a plentitude of Roscommunists.....

bcirl03

The death of FF - coming to an election near you - very soon