Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 14-10-2021 7:37am

Thursday, 14 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 Oct 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfalls will average near normal, much of this will occur from Saturday evening to about Tuesday.

-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.

-- Winds will gradually increase, into the moderate range mostly, occasionally strong by mid-week at the end of this interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few sunny or at least brighter intervals. Moderate south to southwest winds will develop by afternoon. Highs 13 to 16 degrees. Rain by afternoon in Ulster and some nearby portions of Connacht and Leinster.

TONIGHT some showers or intervals of light rain will spread from the north into some central counties, but will tend to die out rather quickly, with a clearing trend in the north, where lows could fall to 2 to 5 C. Further south cloud prevailing will result in lows closer to 9 or 10 C.

FRIDAY will see some sunny intervals in the north and east central counties, mostly cloudy further south and west. Highs 12 to 15 C.

SATURDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with moderate southerly winds developing, rain by afternoon in the west, spreading further east by evening. About 10 mm is expected. Winds southerly 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy and mild with intervals of light rain turning to heavier downpours by late in the day and overnight into Monday morning, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

MONDAY will be mild with occasional rain and moderate to strong southwest winds, lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will be quite windy (southwest to west 50 to 80 km/hr) with passing showers, some may produce hail and thunder. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C Tuesday, 13 C Wednesday.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY (21st-22nd) will probably be rather cool but mainly dry days with highs 10 to 12 C, and slight frosts could develop, lasting into Saturday morning, before another milder surge begins from the southwest. From there to the end of the month it looks quite mild and sometimes wet and windy in a southwest flow.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast and cool with a damp drizzly mix of rain and snow pellets, but amounts were very slight and there was no accumulation with temperatures eventually recovering to about 8 C.

M.T. Cranium · 15-10-2021 7:08am

Friday, 15 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain the same, with a rather mild temperature trend, near average amounts of rain expected and rather cloudy skies most of the time, with stronger winds than in recent days.

FORECASTS

TODAY will feature some sunny intervals in Ulster, north Leinster and parts of the midlands, and mostly cloudy skies further south. The front has dried up but could produce a few very light showers across the inland south and west. Highs 9 to 12 C in the cooler north, to 16 C in west Munster, and about 13 or 14 C in many central and southeastern locations. Winds will become rather light again once the cooler northerly breezes reach their end with the front becoming stationary and then slowly returning north as a warm front.

TONIGHT will see the clear skies in the north gradually clouding over with cool lows near 2 to 5 C. Under extensive cloud elsewhere, lows of 7 to 10 C are likely.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, dry for much of the day with rain spreading onto the west coast late in the afternoon and then through other regions overnight. About 10 mm of rain can be expected with this system. Highs of about 14 to 16 C are expected, with moderate south to southwest winds.

SUNDAY the morning showers will move east to leave a partly cloudy and mild day with moderate southerly breezes, lows near 10 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

MONDAY there will be early morning rain, heavy at times, followed by showers and mild, windy conditions (south to southwest 40 to 70 km/hr). Another 10-15 mm rain expected and temperatures steady in the range of 13 to 16 C.

TUESDAY will be breezy and continued rather mild with outbreaks of light rain and temperatures in the 12 to 14 C range.

By WEDNESDAY, windy and turning somewhat colder with passing showers, some with hail or thunder. Temperatures falling into the range of 8 to 11 C.

Later in the week, another frontal zone situation develops with quite cool air reaching Ulster and north Leinster, parts of Connacht and the midlands, but staying somewhat milder further south. Temperatures will be around 5 to 9 C north of this frontal boundary and 10 to 13 C to the south. Once again, milder air will likely return by the weekend of 23rd-24th and the final week of October looks rather unsettled with strong southwest to west winds at times, temperatures not far from 10 C.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast and rather cool with spotty light rain at times, and the high was about 8 C.

M.T. Cranium · 16-10-2021 7:08am

Saturday, 16 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 Oct 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal although it will turn a bit colder towards the end of this interval.

-- Rainfalls will range from near normal in the west, to about 50 per cent of normal in the east.

-- Sunshine will be around half of the normal amount.

-- Winds will increase at times to quite strong southwest to west.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out bright with hazy sunshine dimmed later by increasing cloud, with rain only reaching the west coast before evening. Highs 13 to 16 C.

TONIGHT will become rather windy with intervals of rain (5-10 mm) and lows near 10 C, winds southerly 40-60 km/hr.

SUNDAY the morning rain or showers will clear east before mid-day and skies will become variable with a few brighter intervals. Winds easing to southwest 30-50 km/hr. Mild with highs near 17 C.

MONDAY will bring intervals of rain and moderate to strong south to southwest winds 50 to 70 km/hr, about 10 mm of rain likely and highs 15 to 18 C.

TUESDAY will continue partly to mostly cloudy and mild with occasional rain and moderate southwest winds, lows near 12 C and highs near 15 C.

WEDNESDAY will be cooler and quite blustery with passing showers of rain with some hail and thunder possible, winds west-southwest at about 50-70 km/hr, and quite stormy on the west coast at times towards end of the day, lows near 8 C and highs near 12 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy, rather windy and cool with a few showers mainly feeding in from the northwest on blustery winds of 40-70 km/hr. Lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and a bit milder with rain by evening in the west, lows near 2 C and highs near 14 C.

The preliminary outlook for next weekend calls for rain early Saturday, strong winds developing and near normal temperatures turning a bit colder by Sunday. Then the rest of the following week will be quite changeable and sometimes blustery with winds sometimes increasing to the 60-100 km/hr range, with passing fast-moving frontal waves. Temperatures may go onto a bit of a roller-coaster ride with these waves bringing in mild sectors separated by rather chilly air masses so that there would be frequent oscillations between 7 C and 13 C as these systems race through.

My local weather on Friday was overcast and chilly with a bit of light rain at times, and highs near 10 C. By the way, four years ago today Ireland was battered by Ophelia with the south coastal counties taking the brunt of that storm, just reading through some of the reports and it was Cork at around mid-day seeing the worst of the damage. (In 2017 this date was a Monday)

M.T. Cranium · 17-10-2021 8:12am

Sunday, 17 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 Oct 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal although it will briefly turn a bit colder around Thursday.

-- Rainfalls will range from near normal in the west, to about 50 per cent of normal in the east.

-- Sunshine will be around half of the normal amount.

-- Winds will increase at times to quite strong southwest to west.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with isolated brief showers with only slight rainfall amounts, with winds southwest 30-50 km/hr. Mild with highs near 17 C.

TONIGHT will bring an interval of moderate rainfall with 5-10 mm widespread, quite mild with lows near 12 C and south to southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr.

MONDAY will bring intervals of rain through the morning, some partial clearing by afternoon although quickly followed in the west by further showers, and moderate to strong south to southwest winds 50 to 70 km/hr, with about 5 to 10 mm of rain likely and highs 15 to 18 C.

TUESDAY will continue partly to mostly cloudy and mild with occasional rain and moderate southwest winds, lows near 12 C and highs near 15 C.

WEDNESDAY will be cooler with occasional rain and a few sunny spells, then by afternoon in western counties and by evening in the east becoming quite blustery with passing showers of rain with some hail and thunder possible, winds then increasing to west-southwest at about 50-70 km/hr, and quite stormy on the west coast at times towards end of the day, lows near 8 C and highs near 12 C. About 10-15 mm rainfalls likely. The overnight period will remain quite blustery with squally showers as winds veer northwesterly staying strong near Atlantic coasts.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy, rather windy and cool with a few showers mainly feeding in from the northwest on blustery winds of 40-70 km/hr. Lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and a bit milder with rain by evening in the west, after a rather cold night with lows near 2 C and scattered ground frosts, then milder during the day as highs reach 14 C.

SATURDAY will bring morning rain or showers followed by partly cloudy skies and highs near 15 C.

The rest of the month continues rather mild in a west-southwest flow and passing frontal waves occasionally leading to rain and stronger wind gusts at times, but fairly typical of the season with highs 12-15 C.

My local weather was quite pleasant with skies clearing before noon and a warm sunny afternoon with highs reaching 18 C. A coastal storm was dumping heavy rain west of the Cascades with local flooding problems reported around Vancouver especially in the north shore mountain region. That front will pass through here on Sunday but rainfalls will be considerably diminished for us, then a fairly bland autumn week expected with rather mild temperatures.

M.T. Cranium · 18-10-2021 7:48am

Monday, 18 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 Oct 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal, warmest today and Tuesday. Near normal average expected Wed to following weekend.

-- Rainfalls will average near normal on the west coast and about 50 to 75 per cent of normal in the east.

-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal values.

-- Winds will be moderate southwest much of the time.

FORECASTS

TODAY will soon turn cloudy with an interval of moderate rain expected this morning to mid-day, with 5-10 mm amounts expected. Partly cloudy and quite warm by afternoon. Highs 17 to 20 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with rain at times, very mild with lows 12 to 15 C.

TUESDAY will bring intervals of heavy showery rainfall although with a few dry intervals in the mix, and highs 16 to 18 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with showers, some possibly thundery in places, and somewhat cooler, morning lows near 12 C and afternoon highs near 15 C. Rather blustery by late afternoon and evening in Atlantic coastal counties with stronger west to northwest winds arriving (much of the day will feature rather light winds especially over eastern counties), by the overnight hours winds west to northwest 40 to 70 km/hr.

THURSDAY will continue rather windy and cool with passing showers, some sunny spells developing, winds northwest 40 to 60 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

FRIDAY will start out rather cool with scattered ground frosts possible, then somewhat milder by afternoon, with variable amounts of cloud but a dry day expected, lows 2 to 5 C, highs 13 to 16 C.

SATURDAY will become windy with intervals of rain, mild with highs near 16 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and mild with highs near 15 C.

Most of the following week looks considerably milder than average with temperatures staying in a similar range, 14 to 17 C and some dry intervals followed by more frequent rain towards end of the week, and stronger winds.

My local weather stayed fairly pleasant with partly cloudy skies and highs near 18 C.

M.T. Cranium · 19-10-2021 7:34am

Tuesday, 19 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 Oct 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, not quite as warm as recent days but still rather mild.

-- Rainfall will average near normal values in many areas.

-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

-- Winds will continue moderate southwesterly much of the time, somewhat stronger at times Wednesday night.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals. Some bursts of heavy rain will continue to move through Connacht and west Ulster before easing off to light rain showers later today. Earlier heavy rain in the Dublin area should be tapering off soon to occasional showers. Most of the south could see dry intervals this morning before scattered showers develop. It will remain mild in moderate south to southwest winds, highs 15 to 18 C. About 5 mm of rain will be typical but some local amounts of 15-30 mm are possible in the northwestern regions.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast and could remain dry in many areas, with moderate to heavy rain spreading into the south coastal counties towards dawn. Lows 8 to 11 C.

WEDNESDAY intervals of rain will continue across the south with widely scattered showers elsewhere. Although winds will be rather light most of the day, a more blustery regime will develop late in the day or overnight into Thursday morning, as winds become west to northwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Some heavy showers will accompany the cold front involved in this change. Highs around 14 or 15 C on Wednesday after morning lows near 8 C.

THURSDAY will be breezy to windy and cool with passing showers, some locally heavy, lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C. Winds northwest 40 to 70 km/hr.

FRIDAY the north could see some morning cloud and light rain while skies will be partly cloudy elsewhere, rather cold to start the day with lows 2 to 6 C then variable amounts of cloud and a bit milder later in the day, highs 13 to 16 C.

SATURDAY will bring stronger south to southwest winds and rain (10-15 mm expected), highs near 16 C. Winds southerly veering to southwesterly 50 to 80 km/hr.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will be cloudy and continued rather mild with westerly winds and small amounts of rain or drizzle mostly in Atlantic counties and the north. Highs near 15 C.

The mild regime will continue to near the end of the month at least, with highs continuing to reach mid-teens all of next week it would appear now, with frontal systems embedded in a mild westerly flow.

My local weather has stayed quite pleasant with more hazy sunshine on Monday and highs reaching about 16 C. It turns quite cold under the clear skies at night with the full moon quite bright.

M.T. Cranium · 20-10-2021 6:42am

Wednesday, 20 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 Oct 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfall will average near normal values, possibly a bit lower in parts of the north and east.

-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

-- Winds will be picking up late today and overnight and will be rather strong at times over the next few days.

FORECASTS

TODAY some outbreaks of rain will continue for part of the morning across the south, with 10-15 mm totals expected. Further north, a mixture of sun and cloud and mainly dry until the development of scattered showers by mid-day and afternoon, some places remaining dry until tonight in the north. Highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will become windy with passing showers, some squally as winds increase to west then northwest 50-80 km/hr. This may set in during the evening on the west coast but after midnight in parts of Leinster. Lows near 7 C.

THURSDAY will be breezy to windy at times, northwest 40 to 70 km/hr, and cool with highs 12-14 C. Some passing showers are likely especially near the west coast, and over higher terrain elsewhere. Partly cloudy skies will prevail.

FRIDAY some light rain will develop in the early morning across the north and will clear away by late morning. Other regions will stay dry and the overnight lows will be in the 2-6 C range. Milder by afternoon and evening with a southwest flow returning, highs 13 to 16 C.

SATURDAY will bring strong southerly winds and intervals of rain with 10-15 mm likely. Winds southerly 50-70 km/hr, temperatures steady in the 13 to 15 C range.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with a few passing showers and moderate southwest winds, highs near 14 C.

Most of next week will be quite mild, generally overcast with some brighter spells possible in the south mainly, and occasional light rain in the north from frontal waves that will be tracking across the far north at times. The mild spell looks like it might end with stronger disturbances forming and outbreaks of heavy rain with strong winds by early November, but most of next week before that should be relatively tranquil for this time of year. Temperatures will often be around 15 C which is several degrees above the normal daytime readings and well above normal overnight lows.

My local weather on Tuesday continued hazy and sunny with almost no wind, this made for some interesting temperature contrasts between places exposed to the sun and those in the shade where it stayed quite cold from the overnight frosts, but exposed to the sun it was quite warm with highs around 15 C. The full moon is riding high as will be the case each time over this coming winter.

M.T. Cranium · 21-10-2021 7:50am

Thursday, 21 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 Oct 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg above normal despite starting out near average or a bit below today. It will be unseasonably mild by middle of next week.

-- Rainfalls could reach 25 per cent above normal in parts of the west with results closer to average elsewhere. The wettest days ahead appear to be Saturday and Tuesday.

-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

-- Winds will often be moderate and at times strong, mostly from the southwest after today's northwest breezes.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy to windy at times, northwest 40 to 70 km/hr, and cooler than recent days, with highs 12-14 C. Some passing showers are likely especially near the west coast, and over higher terrain elsewhere. Partly cloudy skies will prevail. Rain somewhat more persistent later in north Connacht and west Ulster, 5-10 mm while amounts elsewhere generally trace to 2 mm range.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with occasional rain in the north, lows near 6 C. Skies will range from partly cloudy to overcast further south where it could be a bit colder at least in some inland locations, lows 2 to 5 C.

FRIDAY some light rain will develop in the early morning across the north and will clear away by late morning. Other regions will stay dry and the overnight lows will be in the 2-6 C range. Milder by afternoon and evening with a southwest flow returning, highs 13 to 16 C.

SATURDAY will bring strong southerly winds and intervals of rain with 10-15 mm likely. Winds southerly veering to southwesterly 50-70 km/hr, easing somewhat late in the day with partial clearing in western counties, temperatures steady in the 13 to 15 C range.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with a few passing showers and moderate southwest winds, lows near 5 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

NEXT WEEK will be generally quite mild with highs near 15 C or possibly a bit higher in the south and east, generally dry on Monday then a band of rain expected on Tuesday with strong southwest winds at times in the 50 to 80 km/hr range. This will clear away without much if any drop in temperature mid-week and there will soon be a second wave of moisture from the southwest arriving around Thursday and possibly turning into a rather heavy rainfall event over several days as very mild air pushes into the region and stronger low pressure systems develop. Into early November it looks a bit cooler but not below average for that time of year with highs still above 10 C, but more of a westerly component to the upper level steering flow.

My local weather on Wednesday turned cloudy and rather foggy with light rain or drizzle most of the day, not much change in air mass but without the sun it was only around 8 C at our elevation and 12 C in nearby valleys. Can't see much of the local hills but probably snowing above 1500 metres which is hilltop level around us (my elevation is 1050 m).

M.T. Cranium · 22-10-2021 7:35am

Friday, 22 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 Oct 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfall will be close to average and possibly a bit below in eastern counties, but beyond the end of the week some heavier rain is possible.

-- Sunshine will amount to only 50 to 75 per cent of average in a rather cloudy regime.

-- Winds will be moderately strong much of the time, from the southwest mainly.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals in the south. Light rain at times this morning in Ulster should become less persistent by afternoon. Isolated rather brief and drizzly showers possible further south, mostly near Atlantic coasts. Likely to be mainly dry for the east and south coasts. Highs 12 to 15 C. Winds increasing this afternoon to southwest 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT will be overcast with rain spreading in from the west, winds rather strong southerly 40-60 km/hr, temperatures steady near 10 C.

SATURDAY rain will taper off to showers with partial clearing in western counties by afternoon. Winds south to southwest at about 50-70 km/hr. Highs 13-15 C.

SUNDAY will be overcast with occasional light rain, winds southwest 40-60 km/hr, lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.

MONDAY will be mostly cloudy with occasional rain, more persistent in the north, winds southwest 50-80 km/hr, lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY will be breezy and very mild with rain late in the day spreading rapidly east overnight. Winds increasing to southwest 60-90 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C, possibly 16 or 17 in some parts of the south.

WEDNESDAY will bring an interval of moderate rain in the early morning clearing east by mid-day, staying rather mild with highs near 14 C. Winds continuing rather strong west-southwest 50-80 km/hr.

THURSDAY may be slightly cooler especially in northern counties, partly cloudy with westerly winds, some rain at times mainly near west and north coasts, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.

FRIDAY will begin to turn milder again with rain at times, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

The weekend of 30th-31st is under a watch for strong winds that may develop with stronger low pressure systems, details probably should be left for later and more reliable guidance but potential is there for gusts to reach alert levels (Sunday 31st the more likely timing). Temperatures would likely peak at some point before the strong winds develop, at about 14 or 15 C. Some rain is likely although of a showery nature. The first part of November looks changeable and unsettled with temperatures dropping back to the 8 to 11 C range.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with brighter spells by afternoon, misty at first, and a bit milder as the sun was able to make some impact on the surface temperatures, reaching about 13 C by mid-afternoon. The coast is under a wind and rain advisory for some very strong storms off the west coast of Vancouver Island, but these appear to have limited potential to move very far beyond the Cascades into our region.

M.T. Cranium · 23-10-2021 7:52am

Saturday, 23 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 Oct 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfall will be near normal, with today and Tuesday night into Wednesday the main contributors, also it may be raining steadily just as this interval ends and so the prediction for ten days might be more like 25-50 per cent above normal.

-- Sunshine will be infrequent and it may not even amount to half the average amount.

-- Winds will sometimes be quite strong from the southwest and we are monitoring potential for a damaging wind event around the end of this interval (see forecast for timing and the current low level of confidence in this possible outcome).

FORECASTS

TODAY will be overcast with outbreaks of rain, rather showery but sometimes becoming more persistent, 10-15 mm expected by evening. Winds south to southwest 40-70 km/hr with some higher gusts near Atlantic coasts. Highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT will see the rain tapering off to showers before ending, with winds continuing rather blustery from the southwest at 40 to 60 km/hr, lows 7 to 10 C.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and further outbreaks of light rain, about 2-5 mm additional can be expected. Highs around 12 or 13 C.

MONDAY will be overcast with some light rain, fog and drizzle, more persistent in the north, as a warm front passes during the afternoon and evening hours. Morning lows 4-7 C, afternoon temperatures near 10 C then possibly continuing upward during the overnight hours as a strong south to southwest wind develops. Rainfalls rather slight except 5-10 mm in parts of Ulster.

TUESDAY will be windy and very mild with highs 14-17 C, partly cloudy to overcast skies, and winds south to southwest at about 60-90 km/hr. A band of rain will arrive on the west coast late in the day, 5-10 mm expected overnight from this, with temperatures steady near 12 C during the rainfall.

WEDNESDAY will be slightly cooler with showers or intervals of light rain, winds southwest 40-70 km/hr, lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.

THURSDAY will have a dry interval as a weak ridge passes but it could be raining again by later in the day as another warm front develops. Temperatures in the 10-13 C range.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY (29th to 31st) at this point not able to be very specific on timing as guidance presents a number of different options, signals are quite mixed on track and intensity of low pressure but there seems to be a moderate chance of a strong south to southwest wind event in either some southern and eastern counties or all of Ireland depending on track of the low pressure, and at the moment Saturday is the most likely day for this (if it comes about), with a buildup of rain and wind during Friday, then the main storm event and a gradual moderation on Sunday. Temperatures would be likely to start out around 10 C and rise briefly to about 14 C in those parts of the country east of the storm track, falling back to 8-10 C by Sunday. Some guidance is a lot less robust with this development and the European model has reverted to an earlier "no storm" outcome, while the U.S. (GFS) model has been more consistent in showing strong development although tending to move the timing around within the range of late Friday to early Sunday. No doubt we will be able to get into more confident forecasts of timing and track by the end of the weekend or Monday night, as this event is currently six to seven days away. Stay tuned.

Current guidance shows some signs of a much more variable temperature trend to follow this storm, with rather cold readings possible at times in early November in a northerly flow. This would not set in for days on end however, with large swings in temperature likely.

My local weather on Friday was overcast and foggy with light rain at times, and the high was about 12 C.

M.T. Cranium · 24-10-2021 6:55am

Sunday, 24 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Oct 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfalls will average near normal in the west, trending drier further east (50 to 75 per cent of normal there).

-- Sunshine may manage to reach 75 per cent of normal values (normal has now fallen to around 3 hours a day).

-- Windy at times, and fairly persistent moderate southwest winds most of the time.

FORECASTS

Note that the short term outlook remains similar, the chances of that late week windstorm seem to be downgraded on most guidance but the situation looks undecided with a fairly strong jet stream and temperature gradient still available if the models pick up on energy in the right place, however the time frame for storm development may now extend to about Monday 1st of November.

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with outbreaks of light rain or showers, more persistent in west and north. More frequent rain is likely late in the day there. Moderate southwest winds, highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with some light rain at times in the north, moderate southwest winds and lows near 7 C.

MONDAY will see further rain in the north, about 5 mm potential, with winds west-southwest 40-60 km/hr, rather fresh with highs 12 to 14 C.

TUESDAY will become very mild with a mixture of cloud and some hazy sunshine in parts of the south and east, although perhaps rather brief intervals of brightness, after a very mild night it will reach about 16 or 17 C in many areas during the day. Rain will arrive in the evening as winds increase to southwest 60 to 90 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY will remain rather mild and showery, although not quite as warm, with highs 13 to 15 C.

THURSDAY will cool off another degree or two with further showers possible, highs 11 to 13 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY now looking less likely to become very windy but it will be unsettled with perhaps moderate southwest to west winds, and some chance of that stronger wind event returning to forecasts as the issue may not be entirely settled yet, the source of any stronger low pressure would be rather complex developments from the central Atlantic northeast. At this point would say that these days will be around 10 to 12 C or perhaps slightly milder in some parts of the south, with at least some rain each day. There are signs of it turning rather cold by Monday 1st of November in more of a northwesterly flow, but frequent changes would follow in a rather variable westerly type of flow pattern.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast (highs near 11 C) with glimpses of blue sky and sun catching nearby hills for a few moments at a time through many layers of cloud, sent in from distant storm systems off the coast, and bringing quite strong winds to coastal areas by later today and Monday. We expect to get a bit of rain out of this development but without the strong winds.

M.T. Cranium · 25-10-2021 7:06am

Monday, 25 October, 2021 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 25 to 31 Oct 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, fairly close to average after mid-week after a warm start.

-- Rainfalls will average about normal, with some uncertainty about developments late in the period.

-- Sunshine will average about 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

-- Wind speeds will be moderate to strong most of the time, and direction often southwest.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with scattered showers, rather brief although potentially heavy for a few minutes in some parts of the west. Highs 13 to 15. Moderate southwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr.

TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional light rain, probably heavier in the north (5-10 mm) and patchy further south. Staying quite mild, if the temperature drops at all after sunset this evening it will likely start rising again by midnight, and will be above 10 C by then.

TUESDAY will be overcast and very mild, with perhaps a few brighter intervals in the south and east by mid-day. Some light rain or drizzle in the north, and a more organized band of rain arriving by the evening in western counties. Highs 15 to 17 C. Winds south-southwest 40 to 70 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY will have intervals of rain, sometimes rather heavy in south central counties by afternoon. About 10-15 mm in total including the early morning portion, winds southwest 40 to 60 km/hr, lows near 12 C and highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY will become partly cloudy with showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C.

FRIDAY will be overcast with occasional rain, possibly turning heavy for a time in the south. Highs near 13 C.

The WEEKEND (30th-31st) outlook remains unsettled with further outbreaks of light rain and at least moderate winds. There is no new indication of stronger development, and temperatures would most likely be in the 10-12 C range. By MONDAY (1st Nov) colder and rather windy with passing showers, some with hail and high elevation snow possible, as it turns quite a bit colder and stays cold on TUESDAY (2nd Nov) with northerly winds and temperatures in the 6 to 9 C range. Turning milder again after this brief cold spell but quite variable as a trend.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with light rain, which became heavier in the evening, highs near 11 C. A deep low is drifting north off the west coast and spreading gales some distance inland but not into our region. Further east, it has been quite a warm October but has turned colder recently north of about the Ohio valley and inland northeast, with a heavy rainfall event underway along the frontal boundary. Severe storms will be possible in the southeastern states.

M.T. Cranium · 26-10-2021 7:29am

Tuesday, 26 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 26 Oct to 1 Nov 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg above normal values. It will however turn colder near the end of the interval.

-- Rainfalls will amount to 75 per cent of normal values on average (some uncertainty after Friday however).

-- Sunshine will also be around 75 per cent of normal values.

-- Winds will continue to be moderate from the southwest much of the time, sometimes a bit stronger by the weekend.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy and very mild with some brighter intervals possible in the south and east around mid-day. There will be brief drizzly showers across some parts of the west and north mainly, a few of these could appear elsewhere. More organized rainfall will arrive late in the day. Winds south to southwest 50-70 km/hr except 60-90 km/hr near Atlantic coasts. Highs 16 or 17 C, possibly 18 C where any sunshine develops.

TONIGHT will continue very mild with occasional rain (5-10 mm) and a steady southwest wind 40-60 km/hr. Lows 12-14 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with outbreaks of rain, some becoming heavy later in the day across the south central counties into the southeast where 10-20 mm could fall in some places. Highs 14-16 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few showers and somewhat cooler, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

FRIDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C.

SATURDAY could get a bit breezier again with some chance yet of a more developed low pressure system, but for now we will go with overcast and rain with moderate south to southwest winds at times, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

SUNDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.

MONDAY (1st Nov) could turn a few degrees colder with strong west to northwest winds at times, passing showers that might turn to hail and temperatures slowly falling in the range of 7-9 C.

A few colder days are then indicated in current guidance (which I don't entirely trust by the way, reason being strong development of low pressure off the U.S. coast and possible longer term results of that). If the guidance is correct then it will be around 5-7 C daytimes and -2 or so at night, with the chance of wintry showers in higher parts of the north.

This storm developing off the east coast of the U.S. overnight has some chance of acquiring subtropical storm status but whether it does or not, very strong northeast winds (80-130 km/hr) will develop in the Boston to New York City region and locally heavy rainfalls of 150-250 mm, as the low is predicted to perform a counter-clockwise loop off Long Island later today and early Wednesday, then move off into the Atlantic, to be followed by a second rather active frontal system now in the central states. All of this action further west from Ireland makes me a little reluctant to put all the chips down on any current forecast options beyond about Friday.

My local weather on Monday was mostly cloudy but the rain let up and it was a generally dry day with the odd brief sprinkle, and highs near 12 C. The Pacific storm has blown itself out now and weak remnants drifted onto the coast earlier tonight, but the main energy of this system jumped eastward over top of us last night, and ended up in the northern plains states region fuelling a new low there.

M.T. Cranium · 27-10-2021 7:03am

Wednesday, 27 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 27 Oct to 2 Nov 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average about 1.5 deg above normal values, although turning colder than average by 1st of Nov.

-- Rainfalls will average near normal values or slightly below in some parts.

-- Sunshine will average about 50 per cent of normal values.

-- Winds continuing moderate southwest much of the time, ending up strong west to northwest later in the period though.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals, scattered showers at first will later turn into more organized areas of rainfall some of which may become rather heavy across the south and east (10-20 mm potential there). Continued very mild with highs 14 to 16 C. Moderate southwest winds 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT will be overcast with rain at times, lows 9 to 12 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with showers, not quite as mild although a bit higher than the seasonal normals, lows 7 to 9 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

FRIDAY will continue mostly cloudy with showers or intervals of light rain, lows 5 to 7 C and highs 10 to 12 C.

SATURDAY may become rather breezy at times with rain developing, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C.

SUNDAY our tentative forecast, subject to change, is windy with showers and temperatures steady near 12 C, as once again it looks rather windy on some guidance, as that on again off again storm system shows some signs of developing but the models most attuned to it now are a different group than the first time around, so this issue is probably not settled yet; there is a lot of energy available from the low circulating off the east coast of the U.S. and part of that has tracked on ahead of the deeper portion near Cape Cod now, so the models seem to be struggling a bit with the further evolution of that. For now I will hold at a rather moderate 60-90 km/hr wind regime (southwest veering to west) but it could be either a bit lower than that or even higher depending on how this all plays out.

MONDAY into TUESDAY, turning colder in stages with winds northwest to north 50-70 km/hr. Passing showers have an increasing chance of becoming wintry on highest terrain although mostly rain or brief hail showers likely closer to sea level, highs in the 8 to 11 C range and slight frosts possible at night, certainly a chill in the air compared to most of this week. There are signs that this cold spell will get replaced fairly quickly by milder air masses so it may not be a very deep shift in the pattern, just a temporary change perhaps. Here again the guidance has been all over the place for the last few days and continues to be variable from one model to another today.

My local weather on Tuesday was mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals mid-day then light showers, and rather mild with highs reaching 14 C. Off the New England coast there's a deep low making a bit of a counter-clockwise loop overnight, leading to wind gusts around 100 km/hr in parts of southeastern Massachusetts and rainfalls of 150-200 mm in areas a bit further west such as the lower Hudson valley of New York state. Some of the energy of this storm has already moved on to the south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. At the present time most guidance is taking that energy across the Atlantic towards the Biscay region and into southern France by about Friday, but there's some time left for this to change in ways that could affect the Friday or Saturday outlooks for Ireland.

M.T. Cranium · 28-10-2021 7:51am

Thursday, 28 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS (summary) _ No change from previous indications, but as a large amount of the predicted rainfall has now occurred, the new numbers are as follows ... temperatures will average about 1 deg above normal, with a decline after Sunday into below normal values ... rainfall may reach 75 per cent of normal values with local peaks of near normal, but the rain will be fairly frequent making it perhaps seem wetter ... sunshine will be infrequent and many locations will struggle to reach half their normal totals, however towards the end of the week (which is 3 Nov) these numbers may start improving a bit ... and winds will remain rather moderate most of the time, increasing to strong westerly on Sunday night into Monday.

FORECASTS

TODAY there may be a few more intervals of heavy rainfall in parts of the east and southeast, with partly cloudy to overcast skies further west, and scattered showers developing. Another pulse of moderate rain will enter the southeast later today. Continued rather mild with highs 13 to 16 C. Watch for localized road flooding in the southeast both later this morning and again this evening. Dublin is somewhat on the edge of this band of heavier rain and the worst of it will be further south along the coast and eastern slopes of the Wicklow Mountains.

TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional rain, mild with lows 7 to 10 C. Total rainfalls from time of forecast to end of the overnight period will be 30-40 mm in Wexford and south Wicklow, 10-30 mm in some other parts of the southeast, and around 5 mm on average elsewhere.

FRIDAY will continue rather cloudy and unsettled with a few more outbreaks of light rain, and somewhat cooler with highs 12-14 C. About 5-10 mm of rain will fall in most regions during the day.

SATURDAY will start out partly cloudy with morning lows around 5 to 7 C. Increasing cloud during the morning will lead to outbreaks of light rain spreading from west to east, with moderate south to southwest winds at times. Highs 12-14 C.

SUNDAY will become windy with showers, some rather squally with hail and thunder possible. Temperatures will be steady around 12 C then start falling slowly as winds veer from southwest to west and increase to 50-80 km/hr. Sunday night into Monday (Halloween night by the way) will be stormy with strong west to northwest winds developing, 60-100 km/hr, and passing showers or longer intervals of rain which could be sleety on higher terrain as temperatures fall off further to around 3-4 C.

The first few days of November look quite cold with intervals of cloud and sun, moderate northwest to north winds, just a few scattered light showers some of them wintry on higher terrain, and temperatures several degrees below average, highs 7-10 C and overnight lows -1 to +3 C. However, it then looks likely to turn mild again for a while, as rain develops from the west around 4th of November, with perhaps a week of mild weather before the next threat of any colder air (which currently looks significant but that is over two weeks out, so just a suggestion by the guidance at this point).

The storm that I was mentioning over southeast Massachusetts last night (local time) turned quite damaging with widespread reports of trees down and power outages, in regions south of Boston. Some wind gusts over 100 mph were reported on Cape Cod and the islands. The low responsible for that has circled away from the coast and is now about midway between Halifax and Bermuda. It will not be crossing the Atlantic but instead will die out near the Azores, but a low out ahead of it will track into northern Spain on Friday and energize the southerly flow into Britain which in turn will lead to development of the dormant low pressure areas northwest of Ireland (at that time), so it all has some connection and eventually the wind gradient will increase considerably. Still keeping an eye on this for anything more significant but would call the outcome "moderate" at this point. Just about all guidance agrees on that with the time window rapidly closing.

My local weather on Wednesday was mostly cloudy although fairly bright with a few brief sunny intervals, and while the skies looked rather threatening it remained dry, quite cold in a moderate northwest wind at about 7 deg C and feeling closer to the freezing point. Snow has recently covered the nearby summits above 1500m. However we still have a lot of autumn colour, the gold colours are still vibrant although we've lost most of the red and orange leaves to recent frosts and winds. Meanwhile another storm system has moved through the central U.S. with some severe weather and is now spreading a new mix of rain and wind into the northeast after a brief dry slot between storms. This one won't be quite as windy but may be rather wet so that in some places, the northeastern cities have gone from a very dry October up to 24th to quite a wet one now. Two months worth of rain will have fallen there by the weekend in the past five days.

M.T. Cranium · 29-10-2021 7:35am

Friday, 29 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

The TRENDS for the coming week remain as discussed, as temperatures settle in near average values, rainfall gradually adding up to almost normal amounts with no further downpours in the east or southeast, but occasional rainfalls each day more evenly distributed and eventually returning to a more typical pattern of the west seeing higher amounts although still close to their averages, very little sunshine likely so 50% of average sunshine predicted, and winds increasing to stronger values by Sunday and Monday, turning more westerly and briefly northwest to north before returning to a southwest flow late in this interval (ending 4 Nov).

FORECASTS

TODAY will continue rather cloudy and unsettled with a few more outbreaks of light rain, and somewhat cooler with highs 12-14 C. About 3-5 mm of rain will fall in most regions during the day. Heavy rain has spread out over most of the Irish Sea and Wales, Cumbria and southwest Scotland will all be seeing torrential downpours today (up to 50 mm locally).

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few isolated showers, lows 4 to 7 C.

SATURDAY will start out partly cloudy with morning lows around 4 to 7 C. Increasing cloud during the morning will lead to outbreaks of light and then moderate rain spreading from west to east, with moderate south to southwest winds (40 to 60 km/hr) at times. Highs 12-14 C.

SUNDAY will become windy with showers, some rather squally with hail and thunder possible. Temperatures will be steady around 12 C then start falling slowly as winds veer from southwest to west and increase to 50-80 km/hr. Sunday night into Monday (Halloween night by the way) will be rather stormy with strong west to northwest winds developing, 60-100 km/hr, and passing showers or longer intervals of rain which could be sleety on higher terrain as temperatures fall off further to around 3-6 C.

MONDAY will be breezy to windy at times, eventually a northwest wind will back to southwest as a secondary cold front develops, which will be a focus for a few intervals of rain late in the day probably losing intensity further east, but until that arrives more of a mixture of cloud and sun with isolated showers in the backing westerly flow. Lows near 4 C and highs near 9 C.

TUESDAY will continue rather cold with moderate west to northwest winds, turning more northerly later, with isolated showers and some sleety mixing on higher terrain. Lows near 3 C and highs near 8 C.

WEDNESDAY will see a return to milder temperatures as winds become westerly, and skies will be variable but in general it should be a drier regime for about a day before warm fronts arrive with rain sweeping in around Thursday or possibly delayed to Friday, temperatures generally in the range of 9 to 12 C during this phase. Although cold air tries to make a return, the milder pattern now looks a bit stronger and it may hold off the cold air masses much of the time although any advance of the cold air could lead briefly to near freezing temperatures.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast and foggy, quite cold with snow sometimes mixing in with an intermittent rain, and snow settling on hills just above this elevation. The high was only about 4 C and the day got very poor reviews from anyone who had to deal with it, but our autumn to winter transition here can be a fairly long series of wet spells in which snow gradually starts to take over from the rain. Except for COVID I might have been describing the weather in southern Arizona at this point (considerably better), travel restrictions are easing so perhaps eventually ...

M.T. Cranium · 30-10-2021 8:19am

Saturday, 30 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar ... near normal temperatures on average, rather cold early next week though; average amounts of rainfall much of it coming tonight and Sunday, so it will seem wet at first, rather dry after showery Monday; sunshine returning to more normal values as in the background normal values continue to slide down towards their seasonal low late this month and December (1.5-2.0 hours by then, 2.5-3.0 now); windy at times (see forecasts for details).

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out rather tranquil with a chill in the air until mid-morning, as some sunny intervals warm temperatures towards 12 C. A few isolated showers over western counties at first. Rain will spread into the west and south by afternoon and intensify during the evening. Winds rather light this morning will steadily increase especially near south coast where southeast gales of 60-100 km/hr may develop rather quickly, spreading up the east coast by evening. Wind driven rain at times will make for hazardous driving conditions later today and overnight.

TONIGHT the strong southeast winds will ease off gradually with most of the initial batch of rain moving away to the northeast, after 5-15 mm falls. Further bands of showers likely from the southwest, as winds become more southerly then southwest 40-70 km/hr with lows near 7 C.

SUNDAY there will be a resumption of strong winds, this time from the southwest, at least in those counties south of a storm track which will develop from the Atlantic west of Kerry into Clare and the midlands. North of this track, winds more easterly and not as strong until much later in the day. Rain will be showery and move through in several bands with dry intervals at times, winds southwest 60-100 km/hr in some parts of the south and 40-70 km/hr in the midlands and east during the day, with temperatures steady in the 10 to 12 C range. About 10-20 mm of rain is possible in some places, heaviest in Connacht and west Ulster where strong winds will only develop once the low has moved through the midlands late in the afternoon and into the overnight hours.

SUNDAY NIGHT will be quite windy and turning colder with squally showers at times, winds west to northwest 70-110 km/hr in exposed coastal areas and 50-80 km/hr more widespread, temperatures falling off slowly to around 5 C by morning.

MONDAY will be windy and cold with passing showers, some of them wintry on highest terrain (in other words once it clears up mid-week you may be able to see snow on summits of mountains). Winds northwest backing to west-southwest later at about 50-80 km/hr. Highs 7 to 10 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will be cool but mainly dry days with some scattered showers forming in bands over the Irish Sea and Atlantic in northwest to north winds of 40-70 km/hr. Lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C for inland areas, a range from about 3 to 9 near coasts. Some sunshine both days but quite cold in the wind.

By THURSDAY a more settled day under high pressure, possibly a frosty start but milder by afternoon, lows -3 to zero C and highs 8 to 12 C. FRIDAY will be windy and mild with occasional rain, highs 11 to 14 C.

For the further outlook, I will first discuss developments in the central Atlantic which have a bearing on that part of the forecast. The storm that hit New England earlier in the week has moved past Bermuda and is now tracking southeast into the central Atlantic west of the Azores. By about Monday it could acquire subtropical storm status and be named "Wanda" if so. This storm will meander around for several days as the high mentioned above will be holding it in place. Eventually it finds a way past that by going all the way up to Iceland, then down towards Scotland by about the weekend of 6th-7th November. This may introduce some strong west to northwest winds after a mild start to that weekend and following that, back to a rather unsettled and blustery westerly flow from the Atlantic.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy to sunny by late in the day, rather cool in a blustery northwesterly breeze, although at times oddly the valley clouds were streaming uphill into our town obscuring the view briefly while above that layer ragged scud cumulus clouds were going the opposite direction. The high was about 8 C. It has turned clear and quite cold overnight, reason I am a bit late posting is that I went out to search for any signs of aurora borealis, only faint on the horizon was the verdict.

M.T. Cranium · 31-10-2021 7:30am

Sunday, 31 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 31 Oct to 6 Nov 2021

-- Temperatures will average near normal and at times it will be slightly below normal around mid-week, milder towards end.

-- Further rainfalls of about half the normal amount can be expected now that a large part of the current system has moved through. It will become mostly dry from Tuesday to about late Thursday or early Friday.

-- Sunshine will average near normal amounts.

-- Windy at times especially tonight and Monday. Becoming less windy through the week and quite light wind speeds by about Thursday.

FORECASTS

TODAY there will be a resumption of strong winds, this time from the southwest, at least in those counties south of a storm track which will develop from the Atlantic west of Kerry into Clare and the midlands. North of this track, winds more easterly and not becoming strong west to northwest until much later in the day. Rain will be showery and move through in several bands with dry intervals at times, winds southwest 60-100 km/hr in some parts of the south and 40-70 km/hr in the midlands and east during the day, with temperatures steady in the 10 to 12 C range. About 10-20 mm of rain is possible in some places, heaviest in Connacht and west Ulster where strong winds will only develop once the low has moved through the midlands late in the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Strong east winds currently observed near the north coast of Ulster will ease later this morning there, turning northeast then northwest and picking up again overnight.

TONIGHT will be quite windy and turning colder with squally showers at times, winds west to northwest 70-110 km/hr in exposed coastal areas with 50-80 km/hr more widespread, temperatures falling off slowly to around 5 C by morning. The strong winds will make it feel colder than air temperatures overnight.

MONDAY will be windy and rather cold with passing showers, some of them wintry on highest terrain (in other words once it clears up mid-week you may be able to see snow on summits of mountains). Winds northwest backing to west-southwest later at about 50-80 km/hr although this may apply more to exposed western areas, further east the wind may sometimes ease to moderate values 30-50 km/hr but then pick up for brief intervals. Highs 8 to 11 C with coldest values inland north.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will be cool but mainly dry days with some scattered showers forming in bands over the Irish Sea and Atlantic in northwest to north winds of 40-70 km/hr. Lows near -1 C with scattered frosts inland, and highs 7 to 9 C for inland areas, a range from about 3 to 9 near coasts. Some sunshine both days but feeling quite cold in the wind.

By THURSDAY a more settled day under high pressure, possibly a frosty start but milder by afternoon, lows -3 to zero C and highs 8 to 12 C.

FRIDAY will be windy and mild with occasional rain, highs 11 to 14 C.

The weekend of 6th-7th November will be unsettled, windy at times, with passing showers, and temperatures around 10 C.

Most of the weather to follow approaching mid-November looks relatively mild and sometimes dry, with brief intervals of rain between the dry spells. Temperatures will continue near or slightly above 10 C in the daytime hours, nights will vary depending on cloud cover but nothing overly wintry appears on the current guidance charts.

As discussed, Subtropical Storm Wanda has been declared now west of the Azores, and its further progress will be south, then nearly stationary, and eventually north again, where it could strengthen a bit more, before being absorbed by passing lows in the higher latitude jet stream. It will be perhaps a rather minor component of any weather systems moving past around a week from now and may have totally lost its circulation before then.

My local weather on Saturday was clear and rather cold with a keen easterly breeze of about 30 km/hr, after a hard frost that lingered in the shade, highs reached about 5 C. It is still clear and cold tonight and no signs yet of the expected aurora borealis display, temperature about -3 C at 11 p.m. local time. I gather you changed your clocks overnight, we hang on to daylight saving time here for another week.

M.T. Cranium · 01-11-2021 7:38am

Monday, 1 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TREND summary: this will be a rather dry week with temperatures overall near normal but cold-feeling (due to windy conditions), a bit more sun than average perhaps, and less windy each day to Friday before the milder southwest winds return.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with bands of showers developing, with the exception of most of east-central Ulster (and adjacent parts of Leinster) which have several more hours of rainfall to get past before any clearing sets in. Some longer sunny intervals are possible in the south. While Ulster sees a further 5-10 mm rain, other regions will only get 1-3 mm falls in most cases and a few places could remain dry. Rather windy (west-northwest 40-70 km/hr, backing to southwest 30 km/hr late in the afternoon) and feeling cold at times with highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with a few showers, some sleety on hills. Lows 2 to 5 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with winds turning more northwesterly, 40-60 km/hr. Bands of showers will likely form over the Atlantic moving inland over Connacht and west Ulster and feeding remnant showers into the midlands and sometimes further, also if winds turn due north later in the afternoon then bands of showers over the Irish Sea could reach land in the coastal southeast. Some sunny intervals more prolonged in the south, and cool with highs 7 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY the northerly breezes will continue to turn a bit more to the northeast at times and showers will be quite isolated except for a few bands forming over the Irish Sea perhaps. Longer intervals of sunshine are likely. Quite cold with morning lows -2 to +2 C (the first killing frost perhaps in some areas) and highs 6 to 8 C.

THURSDAY will stay cold until late morning then milder as a slight westerly flow begins. Sunshine will be dimmed by layers of higher cloud at times. Winds generally light and variable. Morning lows -4 to +1 C and highs 8 to 12 C.

FRIDAY will bring a resumption of milder southwesterly flow, cloud and some rain at times. Highs 10 to 13 C. Winds increasing to southwest 40-70 km/hr.

From then on, most of the foreseeable future in November looks rather mild and my monthly forecast reflects this, temperatures will average about 1 deg above normal values, rainfall will be near normal to 25% above normal by the end despite this rather dry first week, and sunshine will be rather generous by November standards. There may be hints of wintry weather by end of the month.

One minor change in the outlook concerns Subtropical Storm Wanda which now appears unlikely to break through blocking high pressure to join the parade of lows further north, however this will have little impact on the forecasts since it was only expected to be absorbed into those anyway. Instead, Wanda will try to move north, run into a blocking high and drift back to the south and southwest. Remnants of it may be moving erratically around the west-central Atlantic for another week to ten days, with no threat to land.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and with the keen cold wind dying out, it felt milder although it was still only about 5 degrees, and tonight (local time) has turned out clear and quite cold again.

M.T. Cranium · 02-11-2021 8:50am

Tuesday, 2 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 Nov 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 deg above normal, after a cool start becoming milder after Thursday (2-4 above).

-- Rainfalls will average 50 per cent of normal, occurring mostly around this coming weekend and Monday 8th.

-- Sunshine will average 25 per cent above normal.

-- Winds will diminish from moderate northerly to light then pick up to moderate southwest by Friday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy and cool with a few scattered showers, possibly wintry on highest summits. Moderate northwest to north winds 30-50 km/hr. Highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with clear intervals, any remnant showers dying out. Lows -3 to +1 C.

WEDNESDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, isolated showers possible near coasts. Winds northerly 30-50 km/hr. Highs around 8 to 10 C.

THURSDAY will be partly sunny, with patchy layers of higher cloud, and light variable winds turning more westerly, a frosty and cold start with lows -4 to +1 C, and milder by afternoon, highs 9 to 12 C.

FRIDAY will be breezy and milder with rain in the west and north by late in the day, lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C.

The WEEKEND into MONDAY will remain mild and mostly cloudy, more rain at times, heavier by Monday, and winds continuing southwest picking up at times to 50-70 km/hr. Highs near 12 C.

The milder trend looks rather locked in for about a week after that; some guidance has colder weather suggested after mid-month but purely speculative at this range.

My local weather on Monday continued sunny and cold, frost lingering in the shade all day, after an overnight low near -6 C, highs reached perhaps 4 C but winds were light enough that it felt tolerable in the sunshine. Still mostly clear overnight now.

M.T. Cranium · 03-11-2021 9:12am

Wednesday, 3 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 Nov 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, after a cool start becoming milder after Thursday (2-4 above).

-- Rainfalls will average only 50 per cent of normal in some parts of the west, and 10 to 25 per cent of normal in many other parts of Ireland, these occurring mostly around this coming weekend and Monday 8th. It will be unusually dry for early November in the east and south.

-- Sunshine will average near to 25 per cent below normal. A rather cloudy westerly flow will follow this present welcome break in solid overcast.

-- Winds will diminish from moderate northerly to light then pick up to moderate southwest by Friday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, and isolated showers possible near coasts. A persistent band of showers is likely to be visible from the east coast but most of the time it will remain offshore, perhaps just brushing parts of south Wicklow and Wexford by this afternoon. Other bands will reach central Ulster and western Mayo into Galway, and southwest Kerry, from the north. Remnant isolated showers from the northern feed could reach the midlands but many places in central, eastern and southern counties could remain dry. Winds northerly 30-50 km/hr. Highs around 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with lows -1 to +3 C, and any clear spots could have a frost, but cloud will probably be quite prevalent in the north and west where lows may only fall to about 5 C.

THURSDAY will be partly sunny, with patchy layers of higher cloud, and light variable winds turning more westerly, and milder by afternoon, highs 9 to 12 C.

FRIDAY will be breezy and milder with rain in the west and north by late in the day, lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C.

The WEEKEND into MONDAY will remain mild and mostly cloudy, more rain at times, heavier by Monday, and winds continuing southwest picking up at times to 50-70 km/hr. Highs near 12 C.

This milder southwest to west flow seems to be fairly dry in general terms, and may persist for some time with any large scale changes not likely until at least the end of the second week of November.

My local weather on Tuesday started out dull with light sleet falling and some slushy accumulations on the ground by 0900h but after that it remained dry and the ground slowly dried out too, under overcast skies with highs near 4 C. Feels more like winter than autumn now but snow on local hills appears to be a thin covering even up near summit levels as we have not had much precipitation of any form for several weeks now.

M.T. Cranium · 04-11-2021 7:55am

Thursday, 4 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 Nov 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfall will be rather slight in many areas, 25 per cent of normal perhaps, with somewhat closer to half the normal value in parts of the northwest.

-- Sunshine will be near the current average of about 2.5 hours a day, or slightly less as the flow is rather cloudy despite being dry.

-- Winds will average moderate speeds and will return to a mostly southwesterly direction.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter spells in the south and east. It should remain largely dry but there could be some drizzle at times near the north coast. Highs 10 to 12 C. Winds becoming westerly 20-40 km/hr but rather light for the first part of the day.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with a few clear intervals, breezy and rather mild with lows 3 to 7 C.

FRIDAY will be breezy to windy (southwest 40-70 km/hr) and mostly cloudy but it should remain dry except for light rain that may move into parts of west Ulster and north Connacht late in the day. Highs 11 to 13 C.

SATURDAY will be breezy to windy (southwest 50-80 km/hr) and mild with intervals of rain, 5-10 mm possible in the north and west, decreasing further east to smaller amounts and some parts of the south staying almost dry. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and continued rather mild with winds more westerly at 40-60 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 or 12 C.

MONDAY another rather weak front comes through with sporadic light rain and temperatures steady near 10 C.

This pattern seems to be fairly static and there won't be large changes in the weather later next week, but gradually the flow does appear to be a bit more active and that might lead to somewhat more variation in the day to day conditions by mid-month, although probably staying generally rather mild.

My local weather on Wednesday was foggy and mild, as a southerly flow pushed in ahead of a strong low out in the Pacific bringing heavy rain to coastal regions tonight. We have just a few spots of rain or drizzle and temperatures steady in the 8 to 10 C range (which is very mild for our location and elevation in November). Expecting another few days of this before some clearing and slightly colder weather on the weekend. Eastern North America has turned rather chilly compared to most of October which finished (like Britain and Ireland) in the top ten per cent of historical data for the month, and was rather cloudy and wet too. The stats for October in Ireland showed that temperatures were on the average about 1.5 C deg above normal, cloud and sunshine around average and rainfall a little above normal, more so in the south which had one very heavy rainfall event late in the month, while the Dublin area came in close to average for rainfall. Except for the natural cooling trend with lower sun angles in November, these trends seem to be continuing with perhaps a drier theme at least for a while.

M.T. Cranium · 05-11-2021 9:17am

Friday, 5 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 Nov 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfalls will average 50 per cent of normal in a few parts of the west and north, but only 25 per cent in many other places.

-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal values.

-- Winds will pick up to more moderate values, mostly southwest for direction all week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy and mild with slowly increasing southwest winds reaching 40-60 km/hr by afternoon. Highs 11 to 13 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with rain spreading into some parts of the west and north, mild with lows near 7 C.

SATURDAY the rain will continue to move through fragmenting to showers, amounts of about 5 mm in some areas but lower perhaps by the time the front reaches the east coast, with some partly cloudy intervals to follow as winds veer slightly from south-southwest to west-southwest 40-60 km/hr. Highs 12 to 14 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and quite mild with lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

MONDAY will bring more intervals of light rain, moderate southwest winds 50-70 km/hr, lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY will see a gradual clearing trend, still rather mild, lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.

WEDNESDAY could bring a little more rain at times, temperatures steady near 10 C.

Beyond that, the end of next week looks very mild with occasional rain to about Saturday 13th, then it begins to turn colder and there are some indications of a brief wintry spell of weather around the 18th to 20th with clearing skies after some mixed sleety precipitation, hard frosts then warming up again beyond that. All of these later trends are in the speculative realm for now.

My local weather on Thursday was foggy and mild with occasional rain and highs near 12 C.

M.T. Cranium · 06-11-2021 8:59am

Saturday, 6 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 November 2021 --

-- Temperatures will continue 2 to 3 deg above normal values (at least, could reach 4-5 in places).

-- Rainfall will be about half the normal amount on parts of the west coast, trending down to 25 per cent of normal on the south and east coasts. To give some idea of amounts, the ten-day "GFS" rainfall guidance shows 10 mm for Galway, 40 mm for Newport and Sligo, 8 mm for Dublin and 5 mm for Cork and some other parts of the inland south to southeast. Normal amounts would be more like 70 mm on the west coast to 40 mm east and south.

-- Sunshine is never very generous at this time of year and this coming week looks about average in that regard, two hours a day on average possibly.

-- Moderate southwest winds will continue. Tropical storm Wanda has now decided to move into the path of the Monday frontal system so it may get slightly gusty on Monday as the small amount of energy left over from that slowly dying system are absorbed into another low near Iceland.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with some outbreaks of rain just starting now on the west coast, and fragmenting to showers as they move further east. Amounts will likely be only 3-7 mm at most. Winds southwest 50-70 km/hr and mild with highs 12 to 14 C.

TONIGHT a few more showers will follow with clearing at times in the west. Lows near 7 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, highs near 14 C.

MONDAY will be overcast with occasional rain (5-10 mm potential), winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr by afternoon and evening, lows near 9 C and highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY will become partly cloudy again with isolated showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 13 C.

WEDNESDAY will be overcast with occasional rain, lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY to about the weekend of 13th-14th will continue mild and unsettled with more outbreaks of light rain at times. While I have mentioned rain in a lot of forecasts, it may be a case of brief showers or spotty light rain without much accumulation, for many parts of the country away from the Atlantic coasts.

The models had been toying with the idea of a large-scale cold outbreak after the 15th, but I see (rather predictably) this is morphing now into cold outbreaks directed more towards central Europe with a higher variability west to northwest flow for western Europe meaning strong winds at times and temperatures rapidly fluctuating between very mild and more average values. The actual cold weather may now be heading further east so we may get into a situation where a cold front that passes rapidly through Ireland and Britain turns into a snow-maker in Germany and the Baltic regions. But that sort of pattern is still almost two weeks away, for now this milder trend is spreading into central Europe as well.

My local weather on Friday continued mild, foggy and drizzly, with temperatures still up around 10 C for most of the day, but it is turning a bit colder here overnight. Apparently after four days of clear skies and no sightings of the northern lights (around here) they were out for the past two nights but we had solid overcast. People further east with clear skies saw them across the eastern prairies and Ontario.

M.T. Cranium · 07-11-2021 7:37am

Sunday, 7 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar to past reports, mild to next weekend with temperatures 2-4 deg above normal, some rain at times but not very heavy for this time of year and amounting to 25-50 per cent of normal values; sunshine at times not far from early November average values; winds mostly southwest and in the moderate rather than strong category most of the time.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy, with some sunshine at times, and only a few isolated showers, so that quite a few places will probably remain largely dry. Moderate west-southwest winds 40-60 km/hr. Highs 12-14 C.

TONIGHT will bring increasing cloud and rain will arrive on the west coast, with winds southwest 40-60 km/hr, quite mild with lows 7-10 C.

MONDAY will be rather windy with occasional rain, 5-10 mm potential, heavier amounts near Atlantic coasts. Winds southwest 50-70 km/hr. Highs around 13 C.

TUESDAY will see similar conditions to today with partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly breezes, isolated showers. Lows near 6 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring outbreaks of light rain in some parts of the south and midlands from a weak warm front moving slowly north; temperatures to the south of that will be rising slowly towards 13 C while staying closer to 8-10 C further north. Skies when not raining mostly cloudy with a few breaks.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be quite mild with southwest winds and highs 13 to 15 C, mostly cloudy but some chance of intervals of brighter hazy sunshine in the south and east, light rain or drizzle brushing past the northwest coasts.

By SATURDAY, windy with occasional rain, temperatures steady near 10 C then falling slowly.

Guidance then continues to show a significant cold outbreak for two or three days as winds turn increasingly to the northwest and north, rather strong at times. Scotland gets hit by quite a strong wintry blast according to this guidance, but Ireland being further from the coldest portion of the outbreak will likely have a more modified result, even so it will be considerably colder than this coming week from about Sunday 14th to mid-week (17th or so), then gradually warming back towards more normal November temperatures and eventually quite mild again as the southwest flow returns.

My local weather on Saturday was cloudy, rather foggy with melting snow falling for several hours, accumulating on trees just above our elevation (within about a five minute walk uphill) but melting at our level as the temperature was about 2 to 3 C. This has moved on to the east but it remains cloudy. Down at the coast there was a large waterspout sighted near Vancouver that moved inland and (as a tornado over land) did some damage to trees and hydro-electric wires. That was in the western part of the city and fairly localized around the university campus. This sort of thing is not all that unusual in the coastal climate in November and December.

M.T. Cranium · 08-11-2021 7:56am

Monday, 8 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 Nov 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal. Normal highs are now around 11 C and normal lows around 3 C.

-- Rainfall for the rest of today will be in the 5 to 15 mm range, after that very little rain is expected until Friday when amounts could be fairly significant in the north and west. Overall, with this large dry spell a dominant feature, there could even so be almost normal total amounts of rain by the end of the interval in some places, but rather dry outcomes in east Ulster and the south coast in particular.

-- Sunshine may continue to be a little more generous than the normal 2.5 to 3.0 hours a day.

-- Winds will vary from light to moderate most of the time, often from a southwest to west direction.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy and quite mild. Some moderate to heavy rain showers will move through the midlands this morning and then across south Leinster, with Dublin expected to be near the northern edge of the rainfall which is associated with a warm front. About 10 mm of rain could fall in this zone from about east Galway and south Roscommon to Kildare and Wicklow. Further south and in east Ulster, less rain is expected, and that due to occasional showers. Highs will reach about 13 or 14 C. Late this afternoon the associated cold front (with remnants of T.S. Wanda merged into it) will drift south into Connacht and Clare where 5-10 mm of rain is likely later in the day.

TONIGHT the rain mentioned for late today will continue to make some progress east and southeast but will tend to be drying out to occasional light rain then drizzle as it continues further, and it will remain very mild with lows 8 to 10 C.

TUESDAY skies should become partly cloudy again with some sunny breaks and some isolated showers in a moderate westerly flow. Highs near 12 C.

WEDNESDAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks, and isolated outbreaks of light rain near the north and west coasts mainly. Lows near 6 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

THURSDAY looks very mild with variable skies and highs near 14 C.

FRIDAY will bring another frontal system with rain at times, heaviest in the north. Continued mild with highs 12 to 14 C.

I have seen quite a bit of variation in forecast guidance for the weekend of 13th-14th and into the following week; some hints that high pressure will build up in a ridge from Scandinavia to the Atlantic pushing the storm track further north and drying out the weather for Ireland. It would stay fairly mild although colder at night than this coming few days. This will force any cold northerly flows to wait until this ridge breaks down which could happen later in the week. At some point around mid-week ten days on from now, there may be a brief interval of stronger winds followed by generally colder weather for a while before any return to mild southwest flow later in November. However, the way the guidance has been shifting around, some different outcomes cannot be ruled out either.

My local weather on Sunday here was mostly cloudy with a few slightly accumulating snow flurries late in the afternoon, with highs around 3 C.

M.T. Cranium · 09-11-2021 7:59am

Tuesday, 9 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue mild and dry with near average amounts of sunshine, generally moderate southwest winds.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, very mild with only a few isolated showers, many places could remain dry. Highs 13 to 16 C.

TONIGHT will see partial clearing and lows 4 to 7 C. Some mist and fog patches may develop.

WEDNESDAY will be sunny at times after morning fog clears, with increasing afternoon cloud in most areas, highs 12 to 14 C.

THURSDAY will be overcast and mild with southerly breezes and some light rain slowly spreading towards western coasts, lows 3 to 7 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

FRIDAY will be breezy and mild, some uncertainty as to how far inland any rain might spread, as some guidance keeps it near the west and north coast before it retreats further north. Any rain should be fairly slight in terms of accumulations except possibly near Donegal Bay where 10-15 mm is possible. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

The guidance beyond Friday generally suggests that blocking high pressure will slowly build up over western Europe and the main uncertainty would be how much persistence overnight fog might have each day, as that could keep temperatures down in some areas; otherwise, the mild theme should continue for at least a few more days to the middle of the following week. After that, guidance becomes very uncertain with a large spread of possible outcomes that include some with rather wintry themes for a few days (around 18th to 23rd) but none of this is anywhere near being certain yet so I would take any confident forecasts of wintry weather with a (large) grain of salt for now. It seems equally likely to stay fairly quiet and settled with any cold being locally sourced from overnight radiational cooling under high pressure. That would not lead to daytime wintry conditions however although a few places could stay quite cold under fog.

My local weather on Monday was mostly cloudy with the odd break in the overcast allowing the sun to catch a few spots on nearby hills with brief illumination, this made for some interesting scenes driving around the area with contrast between shadow and patches of sunlight. A rather thin snow cover has settled onto all hills higher than our local elevation but the ground is bare from here down into the Columbia valley. It was a bit milder than recent days with a high near 7 C. It is turning stormy again on the west coast with wind warnings posted. Expecting some mixed falls of snow, sleet and cold rain as these fronts move inland over the next few days.

M.T. Cranium · 10-11-2021 8:21am

Wednesday, 10 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 Nov 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfall will vary from about 25 per cent of normal in the south and east, to 75 per cent in the west and north. The bulk of this predicted rainfall will occur late Thursday into Friday.

-- Sunshine will be near normal values or slightly above in some parts of the east and south.

-- Winds will vary from moderate to rather light with the trend being towards the lighter wind speeds by the middle of next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with some decent sunny intervals in the east, isolated outbreaks of rain possible near the west and north coasts but little accumulation is expected there. Highs 11 to 13 C.

TONIGHT will become more overcast with a moderate southerly wind developing, lows near 7 C.

THURSDAY will be mostly cloudy and mild with outbreaks of rain edging into the western counties later in the day. Winds will increase gradually to southerly 40-60 km/hr. Highs 12-14 C.

FRIDAY will be breezy to windy at times, and mild, with rain tapering to showers by afternoon, amounts of 10-20 mm likely in the west and north, but closer to 5 mm in the east and parts of the south. Winds southwest 50-70 km/hr but gusts to 90 km/hr along exposed Atlantic coasts. Lows near 8 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

SATURDAY will bring some intervals of hazy sunshine after any morning fog lifts, and it will continue rather mild with lows near 6 C and highs 11 to 14, probably milder in the midlands and inland west as winds take a bit of a turn to the southeast.

SUNDAY is likely to be dry in most areas although some rain could be brushing the outer west coast, and winds there could be a bit stronger from the south than elsewhere. Some chance of sunshine at times in the east as cloud will be more concentrated to the west, as a front stalls just off the coast there. Lows 3 to 6 C (coldest in the east) and highs 9 to 13 C (mildest west).

MONDAY any further rain will move away to the north and it will continue partly cloudy and mild with highs near 12 C.

The pattern for most of next week is rather volatile and guidance continues to change frequently, at the moment we are being shown a continued rather mild westerly flow but with high pressure building up at times, which could lead to persistent fog on some days; overall temperatures are likely to stay a little above normal until colder air finally does push through some time around the end of that week or the start of the following week (around the 22nd or so). We probably won't have a clear idea of how cold it might turn for a few days yet.

My local weather on Monday brought the first significant snowfall that lasted as snow cover (we have seen melting snow a couple of times), and the accumulation was about 2-3 cms with some slushy residue left by evening despite a slight thaw with highs reaching 4 C.

M.T. Cranium · 11-11-2021 8:51am

Thursday, 11 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 Nov 2021 --

-- Temperatures will remain 2 to 4 degrees above normal values.

-- Rainfalls will amount to perhaps 50-75 per cent of normal near Atlantic coasts, but only 25 per cent in many other locations, as much of the rain from Atlantic fronts stays near the coast or out to sea. Also, most of this predicted rain will occur tonight and Friday, the rest of the interval will be quite dry.

-- Sunshine will be near average for this (rather cloudy) time of year.

-- Wind speeds will be generally light to occasionally moderate, although stronger at times tonight and Friday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy, any brighter intervals will be more likely this morning and near the east coast. Some rain will spread into Atlantic coastal counties before the end of the afternoon. Winds will increase to southerly 40-60 km/hr, with stronger gusts developing near the Atlantic coast. Highs around 12 to 14 C.

TONIGHT will be moderately windy with rain spreading slowly further east, 5-15 mm amounts likely. Winds south to southwest 50-80 km/hr. Lows around 9 C.

FRIDAY will be mostly cloudy and continuing mild with rain at times, tapering to showers. The front will try to move across most of Ireland but will weaken as it goes. Another 5-10 mm of rain is possible in some places. Highs 12 to 14 C. Winds southwest 50-80 km/hr, diminishing by late afternoon.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with some spells of hazy sunshine after any morning fog dissipates. Lows 3 to 7 C and highs 11 to 13 C. Lighter winds especially over central to eastern counties with a slight turn to the southeast.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy in the east to overcast in the west, where rain may brush some outer coastal areas. Winds moderate southerly in western counties but continued rather light southeast in other regions. Lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and mild, some further rain is possible but the front will be rapidly drying out during the middle portions of the day and total rainfalls may be quite slight. Lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C.

The rest of next week looks fairly mild, although any given day could produce enough fog overnight to hold temperatures down in some inland areas during the daytime hours. Other than that the temperatures should stay above 10 C each day with nights varying from 2 to 6 C and some slight risks of frost at times. This pattern involves a weak ridge building from Scandinavia to the central Atlantic but the mild southwest flow remains somewhat active and will try to work into the ridge so that its most powerful influences will be across southern Britain and northwest France. Much colder air will be spreading south into central Europe and trying to find some route west but this ridge is not lifting to the north far enough to allow a prolonged easterly flow to develop, unless that happens quite some ways into the latter stages of November where model guidance is less reliable anyway. So it should stay fairly mild until at least the 20th and perhaps closer to the 25th. It will also be remarkably dry overall for November which often sees 120 mm monthly rainfalls (the total indicated by numerical guidance to nearly the end of the month is only around 20-30 mm in some southeastern districts).

My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy with longer sunny intervals later in the day, but rather cold, allowing the thin snow cover to persist at least in shaded areas. The highs were about 4 C. Meanwhile, there may be one more named storm out in the central Atlantic, as the NHC monitors a low already at hurricane strength between Bermuda and the Azores. That is predicted to head north towards western Iceland eventually and the blocking ridge will keep it well clear of Ireland. As we've used all the names allotted for 2021 and they don't plan to go into the Greek alphabet, this next storm would have a name from another "supplementary" list and starting with A again. I looked up the names available and they are Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, Emery and Foster. I think the idea is to use this list every year unless one of those names gets retired after a major impact storm. So this one being watched is already strong enough but it needs to acquire characteristics of a subtropical storm to get the name Adria. It would become the 22nd named storm of 2021 if so.

M.T. Cranium · 12-11-2021 8:58am

Friday, 12 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 Nov 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfall will amount to 25-50 per cent of normal in most places and could be even lower than that in some eastern counties and near the south coast.

-- Sunshine will probably add up to near normal values, it will be rather cloudy but with a few longer sunny intervals on a few days.

-- After today's blustery winds die out, the weekend will feature rather light winds, some increase is expected across the north and west for next week but conditions in the east and south will often remain quite tranquil by November standards.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be blustery with a bit of rain or drizzle, although this low is producing remarkably little rainfall by November standards, except in a few parts of Connacht and west Ulster where 5-10 mm could fall. Skies will be mostly cloudy until mid-afternoon then partly cloudy as the wind begins to moderate from morning values of 50-70 km/hr (southwest). Highs 13 to 16 C.

TONIGHT will be breezy and mild, but winds will become calm inland and near the east coast after midnight, which may allow some fog to develop. A bit colder with lows 2 to 6 C in the east, but staying mild where breezes persist in the west, 7 to 9 C.

SATURDAY any morning fog or mist should clear away to allow for a partly cloudy day with some hazy sunshine through higher cloud layers at times, light and variable winds, highs 12 to 14 C.

SUNDAY will be similar in most areas but a weak front will slowly approach the west coast and could spread in some drizzle or light rain there by afternoon and evening. Lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C.

MONDAY will see this sporadic weak front moving further east and breaking apart so that a few places will get 1-2 mm of rain from passing showers, rather cloudy after the front passes and continued mild, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

TUESDAY will become quite breezy in the north with outbreaks of light rain, westerly winds 50-70 km/hr, and highs there near 10 C. Partly cloudy and breezy further south with highs near 12 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring cloudy skies with a few breaks, largely dry conditions, lows near 3 C and highs near 11 C.

THURSDAY into the weekend of the 20th-21st will likely remain mild with a slowly increasing chance of rain and stronger winds developing, and temperatures in the 9 to 12 C range mostly.

Some colder weather is indicated for the week of the 22nd-26th, details vary from one forecast model to another and some show a bit of potential for small amounts of snow in the mix, but temperatures only drop rather gradually and may have a tendency to recover to milder levels again before the week (and the month) are done.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast and cold with a few wet snowflakes in the air at times, no further accumulations and temperatures around 4 deg C, meanwhile in the Atlantic the still un-named storm is well off to the southeast of Newfoundland heading north towards the western part of Iceland. As they haven't named it yet, it seems unlikely that "Adria" will be happening at least with this system, there is still some time left for more tropical activity.

M.T. Cranium · 13-11-2021 8:40am

Saturday, 13 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

The trends remain the same, quite mild, essentially dry in most areas with small amounts of rain likely at times in the Atlantic coastal counties and parts of Ulster, and a quiet weather pattern for this time of year when it can become very windy or volatile sometimes.

TODAY will be mostly cloudy but there could be some brighter spells later on in the south mainly, and there will be a few very brief and isolated showers mostly confined to the west but possible anywhere, only amounting to a few raindrops to perhaps 1 mm of rain in a few places. Mild with highs around 13 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast, still some patchy drizzle in parts of the west, and lows around 7 C.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and a bit of rain will spread into the west with 1-3 mm potential there, highs about 13 C again.

MONDAY the rain will become more patchy as it moves further east, eventually dying out entirely, with some brighter spells by afternoon. Lows around 7 C and highs around 13 C.

TUESDAY a slightly colder westerly flow will push into northern areas with showers and blustery winds (WSW 40-60 km/hr) but will have limited effects on the south, which will have virtually the same weather as the previous days. Highs 8 to 11 C north, 11 to 14 C south.

WEDNESDAY will see that colder interlude fading out in the north and otherwise it will remain bland and rather featureless in most areas, cloudy with some hazy sun briefly, highs around 14 C.

From THURSDAY to SATURDAY (20th) there will be little change as mild westerly breezes continue, high pressure quite close to the south coast so a basically dry pattern for many areas, slight chances of rain in the coastal northwest and north. Highs will continue very mild in the 12 to 15 C range. Nights are not likely to get very cold but there could always be one or two places in the inland south with longer spells of clear skies and that would allow colder temperatures to develop there. Not overly foggy due to the higher stratus layer which is basically fog elevated above the ground, the one good thing about it being that it prevents fog at the surface. However, in any clear spots there could be patchy fog of a rather shallow variety in valleys.

Somewhat colder by about Sunday 21st as the high weakens but a new one forming out to the west of Ireland will bring in northwest winds, so it is likely to be a few degrees cooler for a day or two, before perhaps slowly warming back into the lower teens even near the end of the final week of November.

My local weather on Friday was overcast and just slightly milder than recent days so that any light precipitation was falling as rain here, still snowing on higher slopes around us though. Highs reached about 5 C. Hoping for some clear skies at times mid-week as there will be a total eclipse of the Moon on the night of the 18th-19th, around midnight to 0100h here, but for western Europe, just starting to happen close to sunrise as the moon sets in the dawn twilight.

M.T. Cranium · 14-11-2021 9:13am

Sunday, 14 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

The mild and mostly dry trends continue. ...

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals possible in the south, with a few outbreaks of very light rain or drizzle, not much accumulation anywhere and most places dry. Mild again with highs near 14 or 15 C.

TONIGHT will see the onset of some occasional light rain from a weak front that will drift into the western counties through the early evening and may reach the midlands and Ulster by about midnight. This may bring 1-3 mm of rain to some places. It will continue to drift further east towards morning and a few showers will reach the east coast; even smaller amounts are likely there. Lows 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY will see the last of this weak band of rain or drizzle moving into the Irish Sea and breaking up completely there. Skies may brighten a bit towards mid-day and during the afternoon although the mild southwest winds will continue to bring in a rather monotonous low cloud deck that the weak sun at this time of year cannot easily break up through heating from above, when it's mild at the surface too. Highs will reach about 15 C. Winds will increase gradually and some coastal areas could see strong wind gusts by afternoon and evening, to 80 km/hr, although it will probably be much less windy inland for the midlands and most of Leinster.

TUESDAY will become rather cold in the north after a band of rain moves through in the early morning hours, followed by variable skies and a few passing showers, westerly winds 50-80 km/hr and both lows and highs in a narrow range of 6 to 9 C. Further south the band of rain will once again weaken as it moves further inland and it may be showery at times with some brief sunny intervals too, with only a slight drop in temperatures, morning lows near 8 C and afternoon highs 12 to 14 C.

WEDNESDAY the milder Atlantic air will quickly return to all areas and skies will be mostly cloudy but essentially dry, with patchy drizzle near coasts. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue breezy and very mild with highs 14 or 15 C. By this time in November, normal daytime highs are closer to 10 or 11 degrees. These will be largely dry days but some rain could spread into the north by late Friday.

SATURDAY will start out mild and may stay that way in the southern coastal counties but elsewhere a gradually developing cold front will pass during the day dropping temperatures from near 12 C ahead of the front, to 6-7 C behind it, as winds turn more northerly. It looks like a fairly dry frontal passage but a few bands of showers will likely form. Winds becoming northwest to north 50-70 km/hr.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will be much colder days although nothing too drastic as the main thrust of really cold air of arctic origins will be across the North Sea into central Europe. Daytime highs in Ireland will likely stay in the 6-8 C range with overnight lows near freezing. There could be some mixed wintry shower bands forming with the wintry portions mainly over hills.

This colder spell will gradually relent to milder conditions as another high drifts in from the west and replaces the one that will be controlling the weather this week. By the end of the week (of 22nd-26th) it will probably be around 10-12 C again.

My local weather on Saturday was cloudy but dry in the daytime, rather cold with highs near 4 C. Snow began to fall at sunset and has continued at varying rates with 15 cms on the ground now, and temperatures near 0 to 1 C. This may change over to rain at elevations from here down into the valleys, and will continue as heavy snow on higher terrain where 30-40 cm amounts are predicted in some mountain pass locations. Meanwhile, a rather small frontal system managed to flare up into severe winds over the New York City region and some small tornadoes were reported on Long Island doing a bit of damage consistent with F-1 tornadic cells.

M.T. Cranium · 15-11-2021 9:04am

Monday, 15th November, 2021 ____ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar with a very mild and largely dry week ahead, except for some coastal areas which may see small amounts of rain in the 10 to 25 per cent of normal range. Not overly windy for this time of year.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with some brighter intervals, scattered outbreaks of light rain but only small amounts where it does take place, and moderate southwest winds. Very mild with highs 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT some rain will move in from the northwest, as winds increase a little to southwest 40-60 km/hr in exposed locations. Mild with lows near 9 C.

TUESDAY rain will continue to move further south, followed by partial clearing and then bands of showers affecting mostly the northern half of Connacht and most of Ulster. It will feel colder there in brisk westerly winds and highs 8 to 11 C, but further south changes will be slight and highs will once again reach at least 12 to 14 C.

WEDNESDAY to about SATURDAY morning, the mild and dry pattern will continue with highs each day 13 to 16 C and overnight lows generally staying well above normal too (7-10 C) although in the inland south one or two spots could see slightly colder morning temperatures if skies clear.

By late Saturday into SUNDAY a colder northwest to north wind with isolated showers (some mixed wintry falls possible on high ground) will drop temperatures to around 7-9 C by day, and -2 to +3 C at night. This cold spell will be moderate but a change in previous guidance on some model runs indicates potential for more severe wintry weather after a brief milder turn middle of the last week of November, so that by end of the month into early December there could be some cold and snow potential. Details won't firm up much for a few days on that.

My local weather is going into hyper-active mode as a major Pacific storm moves inland overnight. Coastal areas have seen very heavy rainfalls and there are ongoing flood and mudslide problems, highway closures, and reports of water rescues underway as 150-250 mm rainfalls combined with higher elevation snow melt send small rivers and streams over their banks and forming new paths, in one case down a mountain highway (fortunately nobody was swept away in that apparently and the highway is now closed). Where I live further inland, our recent snow was melting all day in a mild and so far gentle light rainfall, temperatures near 7 C, but this low unlike most is deepening as it moves into Alberta and we are expecting a sudden onset of damaging winds here late Monday with most of the snow melted by then. Will let you know how all that goes in tomorrow's report (if I have electric power).

The best analogue for this west coast weather pattern seems to be November 1981. That combined with the apparent signal picked up by the European modelling (from several sources) combines to make me more optimistic (or concerned) about wintry potential -- I was saying earlier that I was moderately optimistic about some snow and cold although it might be a borderline situation, but perhaps these new developments shift that more towards considerable optimism for stronger winter weather patterns at times, and starting earlier to include some spells in December as well as January already under watch. In plain language, it could be a fairly severe winter then, and some evidence of that may show up within two or three weeks (not this coming week however).

M.T. Cranium · 16-11-2021 8:42am

Tuesday, 16 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 16-22 Nov 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg above normal although by the end of this interval there will likely be a steady fall towards below normal.

-- Rainfalls will average 10 to 25 per cent of normal as the rather dry trend continues.

-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal values.

-- Moderate westerly winds will be fairly constant to the weekend then somewhat stronger northwest to north winds will develop.

FORECASTS

TODAY some light rain at times in Ulster and nearby parts of Connacht, Leinster, becoming more showery by afternoon, slightly cooler than recent days there with highs 12-13 C. Winds southwest to west 40-60 km/hr. Further south, partly cloudy to overcast with isolated light showers possible, little accumulation likely, highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast and mild with moderate westerly winds, some light showers of rain in the north at times, lows near 7 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will bring quite mild weather with some brighter intervals at times in the south, and some very light rainfalls possible in the north. Moderate westerly winds and highs each day 13-16 C, overnight lows 6-9 C.

On SATURDAY this milder air mass will linger to mid-afternoon across parts of the south as colder air gradually pushes into the north and then central counties. Winds will slowly turn more northwesterly and temperatures will likely be steady around 12 C until the front arrives then will fall off to about 7 or so by late afternoon.

SUNDAY will be breezy to windy and rather cold with northerly winds, partly cloudy skies and isolated showers possible (wintry on higher terrain where they do occur). Morning lows 1-4 C and afternoon highs 6-9 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY are also looking rather cold, generally dry with variable skies and isolated wintry showers possible, highs 5-8 C and slight frosts inland as overnight lows will be in the range of -2 to +3 C.

The various forecast models are having quite a difficult time resolving how this evolves with quite cold air starting to edge further south towards northern Scotland, this more modified cold not seeming to be in much of a hurry to give way to that, but also the milder Atlantic flow pushing against both varieties of cold to try to regain the dominant position. As a result of this uncertainty, different models have quite varying outcomes beyond the middle of next week so we'll just have to adopt a wait and see position as it could range from quite cold to a back-to-milder scenario. Hoping to see clearer guidance by tomorrow perhaps.

The local weather unfolded about as expected with a mild day ending with strong winds that thankfully have not resulted in any local power outages. The situation has become quite dire in parts of the coastal regions of British Columbia with widespread flooding, mudslides and road closures, and a few cases where people are either trapped on highways between two mudslide zones, or may have been swept off highways into the surrounding rugged terrain. The result of that can be anywhere from catastrophic to just being stranded in vehicle off the side of the road until rescuers can get in or the stranded travelers can get out. At the moment there are a few situations that have unknown outcomes there but in general it's more of a property damage disaster than a mass casualty event.

M.T. Cranium · 17-11-2021 8:05am

Wednesday, 17 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 Nov 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal as the first half of the interval is quite mild then the second half equally cold, so two distinct periods, one about 3-4 deg above normal, the second one closer to 3-4 below normal.

-- Rainfall will be fairly light in general and most of what does fall is expected around Saturday afternoon and evening. It may amount to 5-10 mm which is less than a quarter of a weekly average amount at this time of year.

-- Sunshine could be somewhat above normal as the colder half of this interval should be reasonably bright, even if the first half remains fairly cloudy.

-- Winds will be moderate westerly until the change in the weather then moderate northerly backing to northeast at times.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals in the south mainly, and continued quite mild with highs around 12 to 14 C. Winds west-southwest at about 40-60 km/hr. There could be a few light showers near the north coast of Ulster spreading a bit further south at times.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and mild with lows near 7 C. Some mist and fog patches likely towards morning.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue without much change, although the southern counties may see a slightly less breezy outcome while the central and northern counties remain in the moderate westerly flow. Highs both days around 13 or 14 C. Morning lows on Friday near 6 C.

SATURDAY a rapid change in the weather will be quite noticeable, as a front accelerates southward from Ulster in the morning hours, to central counties by mid-day and the south coast by afternoon. This front could contain a few rain showers more likely to give a brief spell of 3-5 mm rainfalls across the north then more hit or miss towards the southern counties. Once past, the winds will veer from west to north-northwest and become rather gusty at times in the 50-70 km/hr range. Temperatures are likely to stall at about 10-12 C before the front arrives then will fall rather steadily to near 5 C.

SUNDAY will be breezy and quite cold with the chance of some streamers developing over the Irish Sea. These would be more likely to produce cold rain or hail showers than snow, although it could snow on higher parts of the Wicklow hills. Elsewhere, mostly dry conditions with partly cloudy skies, winds north-northeast 50-70 km/hr adding a chill to daytime temperatures of only 5 to 8 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be cold and dry days with some sunshine and some cloudy intervals. If winds remain east of due north then the Irish Sea showers could reappear at times. Highs both days 4 to 7 C and morning lows -2 to +2 C with frosts in sheltered locations inland.

The evolution beyond mid-week is rather uncertain with different guidance offering completely different outcomes. The two main possible outcomes seem to be these: (1) the modified cold air could remain in place for the rest of the week, then a reinforcement of colder air from the north would arrive, the transition could see wintry showers near the end of the month, or (2) the Atlantic will be invigorated by this shot of colder air and send back a series of rather strong lows that could drop considerable amounts of rain as milder air gets back into the circulation with those.

As those are almost opposite outcomes, I will have to step aside and let nature decide which way to go (as always), but my hunch is that the second outcome is more likely even though the first one is more supported by the European model supported by the Canadian model, and the second one comes from the leading American model (GFS). The GFS has been performing better this past year than it had been relative to the competition and it has been right in other situations that involved this kind of contrasting outcome, but of course that's no guarantee it will happen again this time.

It should be noted also that after that interval of the Atlantic punching back, colder air does arrive, so eventually the outcome is similar, although delayed into early December as a result of the battleground interval.

We may of course have entirely different output showing up before we actually get to the period in question. This is sadly the state of affairs even today in this still-developing science.

My local weather was windy and quite cold all day with the occasional flurry of snow leaving a new coating of 2-3 cms by late in the afternoon. Temperatures were around -1 C in our location and closer to +4 C in nearby valleys where the precip was not reaching the ground but could be seen overhead as "virga" but a few sleety mixtures were noted in between those two elevations.

M.T. Cranium · 18-11-2021 8:38am

Thursday. 18 November, 2021 ____ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar to yesterday's discussion, mild to Saturday then colder although returning somewhat to mild or at least near average for a time before an even colder spell develops near the end of this coming week. It will be quite dry in general, and sunshine will not be much different from the seasonal average of 2-2.5 hours a day. Rather windy at times with the westerly dying out to be replaced by a strong northerly, with several later reinforcing shots.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy (south) to overcast (north) with westerly winds diminishing to quite light in the south, and 30-50 km/hr in the north. Highs near 14 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and mild with lows 5 to 9 C, some fog or mist patches forming after midnight.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and mild with light westerly breezes, highs 13 to 15 C.

SATURDAY a rapid change in the weather will be quite noticeable, as a front accelerates southward from Ulster in the morning hours, to central counties by mid-day and the south coast by afternoon. This front could contain a few rain showers more likely to give a brief spell of 3-5 mm rainfalls across the north then more hit or miss towards the southern counties. Once past, the winds will veer from west to north-northwest and become rather gusty at times in the 50-70 km/hr range. Temperatures are likely to stall at about 10-12 C before the front arrives then will fall rather steadily to near 5 C.

SUNDAY will be breezy and quite cold with the chance of some streamers developing over the Irish Sea. These would be more likely to produce cold rain or hail showers than snow, although it could snow on higher parts of the Wicklow hills. Elsewhere, mostly dry conditions with partly cloudy skies, winds north-northeast 50-70 km/hr adding a chill to daytime temperatures of only 5 to 8 C.

MONDAY will be cold and dry with some sunshine and some cloudy intervals. If winds remain east of due north then the Irish Sea showers could reappear at times but with winds diminishing that process may end for a while by Monday afternoon. Lows -2 to +3 C with some frosts in sheltered inland locations, highs 5 to 8 C.

TUESDAY will start out cold and frosty again but will turn a bit milder by afternoon, under a mixture of cloud layers and some breaks in the overcast. Lows -3 to +2 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will see a secondary cold front moving through with strong northwest winds developing, wintry showers possible, although mostly of the cold rain or hail variety except on higher slopes, winds 50-80 km/hr and temperatures steady near 4 or 5 C.

THURSDAY will have somewhat less windy conditions and while cold again, it may try to turn a bit milder by afternoon, in advance of yet another reinforcing cold front. Lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

FRIDAY and the weekend of the 27th-28th are likely to be quite cold and there will be some potential for at least localized snow showers, will be dealing with the details as we get closer, but as to the guidance split from yesterday, all forecast models seem to have converged on a similar outlook now (which is not to say they are all right either). If they are correct there will be temperatures not far from freezing and wintry falls from showers in some areas. That cold spell looks like it could moderate slightly before stormier weather develops in a renewed assault of the Atlantic but with remnants of this colder air still around to do battle.

My local weather on Wednesday was cold (-2 C) and dry with a rather thick high overcast dimming the sun then greeting the rising full moon with a large halo this evening. The aforementioned total eclipse is tomorrow about this same time, looking like we might get glimpses of it through cloud layers. This was the first day of our developing winter season with a freeze all day and no sign of melting (although there are only small amounts of snow on the ground here and there, mostly bare still, and thin coverings on the hills around us). The recovery from the floods and mudslides further west in the province continues with some progress being made and a welcome break in the wind and rain for those working on the situation. It could be a week to a month before all the highways are re-opened which is starting to have a severe impact on the supply chains as Vancouver is the main port for most of western Canada. Meanwhile in the eastern parts of North America, a brief warm spell is ending with colder air rushing in from the west and northwest; some lake effect snow is expected near the Great Lakes.

M.T. Cranium · 19-11-2021 8:21am

Friday, 19 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 Nov 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal, despite today remaining about 4 deg above normal.

-- Rainfalls will be slight, 10 to 25 per cent of normal.

-- Sunshine will be near average for this time of year.

-- Winds will turn northerly and will then alternate between northerly and westerly spells.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy and mild, with a bit of drizzle or light rain at times in the southwest. Light to moderate westerly breeezes, and highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will remain mild, with some rain or showers moving into the north after midnight. Winds there will start to turn more northwesterly but elsewhere the moderate west-southwest breeze will continue, lows 7 to 9 C.

SATURDAY will start out mild in the south, turning colder in stages from north to south. Winds will veer from west to north-northwest at about 40 to 70 km/hr and there will be an interval of showery rain with the frontal passage. Temperatures will start out near 8 C north, 10 C central and 12 C southern counties, make little upward progress before falling off to reach 4-7 C by late afternoon.

SUNDAY will be breezy to windy and cold with bands of sea effect showers likely to form over the central Irish Sea moving into parts of Wicklow and Wexford mainly, with rain or hail showers there. A similar effect could occur in parts of Ulster and Connacht. Otherwise most places will remain dry, partly cloudy and cold with northerly winds 40 to 70 km/hr adding a chill to morning lows near 2 C and afternoon highs near 7 C.

MONDAY will be less windy especially by afternoon, and it will turn a bit milder after quite a cold start with scattered frost and lows near -2 C; the afternoon highs will be in the 7 to 10 C range. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy.

TUESDAY will remain rather dull and milder with lows near 3 C and highs near 11 C.

WEDNESDAY another cold front arrives, this one a bit stronger with the risk of mixed wintry showers developing, especially over higher parts of the north and west, in moderate to strong north-northwest winds. Lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C but colder at times during heavier wintry showers.

Once again, this insertion of colder air will be moderated fairly quickly by another turn of winds back to the west, so that Thursday should be slightly milder again, and Friday or Saturday another front will arrive and drop temperatures back to near freezing. This may be a somewhat longer cold interval but most guidance suggests it will be the last of the series before a change to more active and perhaps at times stormy conditions as deep lows begin to form in the Atlantic and move past Ireland towards Scotland. Into early December then it looks quite unsettled but with temperatures somewhat back up again into the 7 to 10 C range, and occasional strong winds expected.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with snow, and an accumulation of about 7-8 cms as it continues, making the lunar eclipse a no-show event here (it would just be starting to happen now). It will clear up here by morning but too late to view the eclipse.

M.T. Cranium · 20-11-2021 7:16am

Saturday, 20 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 Nov 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 4 deg below normal, with the change to colder weather starting later today.

-- Rainfalls will be slight, 10 to 25 per cent of normal.

-- Sunshine will be near average for this time of year.

-- Winds will turn northerly and will then alternate between northerly and westerly spells.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out mild in the southern and central counties, turning colder in stages from north to south. Winds will veer from west to north-northwest at about 40 to 70 km/hr and there will be an interval of showery rain with the frontal passage. Temperatures will start out near 8 C north, 10 C central and 12 C southern counties, make little upward progress before falling off to reach 4-7 C by late afternoon. Expect the cold front and attendant showers around 1-3 p.m. in most central counties and 3-5 p.m. on the south coast.

TONIGHT will be windy and quite cold with mostly dry conditions but a few isolated showers of rain or hail, in brisk northwest to north winds of 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows around 2 to 4 C.

SUNDAY will be breezy to windy and cold with bands of sea effect showers likely to form over the central Irish Sea moving into parts of Wicklow and Wexford mainly, with rain or hail showers there. A similar effect could occur in parts of Ulster and Connacht. Otherwise most places will remain dry, partly cloudy and cold with northerly winds 40 to 70 km/hr adding a chill to morning lows near 2 C and afternoon highs near 7 C.

MONDAY will be less windy especially by afternoon, and it will turn a bit milder after quite a cold start with scattered frost and lows near -2 C; the afternoon highs will be in the 7 to 10 C range. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy.

TUESDAY will remain rather cloudy and somewhat milder with lows near 3 C and highs near 11 C.

WEDNESDAY another cold front arrives, this one a bit stronger with the risk of mixed wintry showers developing, especially over higher parts of the north and west, in moderate to strong north-northwest winds. Lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C but colder at times during heavier wintry showers.

Once again, this insertion of colder air will be moderated fairly quickly by another turn of winds back to the west, so that Thursday should be slightly milder again, and Friday or Saturday another front will arrive and drop temperatures back to near freezing. This may be a somewhat longer cold interval but most guidance suggests it will be the last of the series before a change to more active and perhaps at times stormy conditions as deep lows begin to form in the Atlantic and move past Ireland towards Scotland. The first of those could arrive by about Monday 29th Nov and its track from the northwest could prolong the cold spell one or two more days with wintry showers in its wake Tuesday 30th, then into early December then it looks quite unsettled but with temperatures somewhat back up again into the 7 to 10 C range, and occasional strong southwest winds possible.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy with a few glimpses of blue sky and sunshine on hills nearby, with the high barely above freezing, so we had no melting of the 10 cm snowpack but it became a bit sticky and heavy for shovelling. Clearing skies this evening gave a good view of the full moon which would have been more welcomed the previous night. Just a brief follow-up on our recent historic flooding rainstorm (further west than my location), the damage is gradually being repaired but recovery estimates range from days on some highways to weeks or months on others depending on how severe the damage was, and the flood waters that inundated the flat farming areas around Abbotsford will take a week to three weeks to pump out with dikes needing to be repaired -- and there's another significant rainstorm expected on Tuesday. This has made quite a mess of the movement of many commodities between the coast and the interior of the province and beyond into the prairie provinces.

M.T. Cranium · 21-11-2021 8:36am

Sunday, 21 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue cold and dry with at least normal amounts of sunshine, and moderate wind speeds.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy and rather cold with northerly winds of 40 to 60 km/hr. A few showers, becoming mixed inland over higher ground, will feed in to parts of Ulster and Connacht, and could appear later in south Leinster although for the morning those will stay out over the Irish Sea. Many places will avoid these and remain dry with highs reaching about 5 to 7 C.

TONIGHT will be clear and frosty in the south and some central counties, as cloud spreads into parts of the north, keeping overnight lows above freezing there. Lows -2 to +2 C in general.

MONDAY will become mostly cloudy although some morning sunny breaks are likely across the south. It will turn somewhat milder and there could be outbreaks of light rain or drizzle near the north coast. Highs 7 to 10 C.

TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with some brighter spells, local drizzle or mist near the Atlantic, and lows -1 to +4 C, highs 7 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will become windy and temperatures will begin to drop around mid-day after reaching highs near 8 C. With northwest to north winds increasing to 50-70 km/hr, temperatures will fall to around 2-4 C and there will be some mixed wintry showers on higher terrain in the north.

THURSDAY will be breezy to windy at times, and cold, with passing showers, turning mixed or wintry on hills. Lows near -1 C and highs near 6 C. winds northerly 40-60 km/hr.

FRIDAY will see the winds backing more westerly for a time which could allow temperatures to rise as high as 8 or 9 C, and most shower activity would then be mostly rain only. Later in the day a cold front will arrive dropping temperatures back to the 2-5 C range and mixing the precipitation types again. Winds generally about 50-70 km/hr.

The WEEKEND of 27th-28th is expected to remain cold and breezy to windy (northerly 50-70 km/hr) with mixed wintry showers, cold enough for snow to settle on higher slopes possibly, but showers remaining mixed rain and hail mostly near sea level, as daytime readings of 3 to 6 C will be rather marginal for snow at lower elevations. Slight frosts likely although wind and cloud will prevent much of a drop in temperature overnight.

By Monday and Tuesday 29th-30th, the winds will once again back into a more westerly direction bringing temperatures back up slightly into the 7 to 9 C range. From then on, it seems that a similar pattern of brief cold spells and intervening near normal intervals will continue with previous signals for stronger winds and stormy conditions being removed from the longer range guidance for now. Those could return at some point though.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with temperatures steady near the freezing point, so that there has been no real melting of any recent snow but some settling and compaction reducing the depths to around 5-8 cms. In areas where recovery work is underway from recent severe flooding, they have about a day and a half of dry weather left before having to cope with the resumption of at least moderate amounts of rain, which will probably fall as snow inland towards my location by about Tuesday.

So in short, the outlook for Ireland is a little more wintry but not expecting anything to rival 2010 at this point, although some will see a bit of snow mainly on higher slopes above their own elevations perhaps.

M.T. Cranium · 22-11-2021 7:08am

Monday, 22 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 Nov 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg below normal values.

-- Rain (or snow) will produce rather small amounts of precipitation perhaps reaching 25 per cent of normal values.

-- Sunshine may approach normal values with at least some sun expected most days.

-- Windy at times from the north towards the middle and end of the week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny to partly cloudy across the southern and central counties with increasing cloud later, while further north it will soon turn mostly cloudy, with isolated wintry showers. Less windy than yesterday but about the same temperatures, if perhaps feeling a bit milder by afternoon with highs 7 to 10 C, after a cold and in some places frosty start. Watch out for black ice conditions on some roads in the midlands and central Leinster until about 0930h.

TONIGHT will have a few clear intervals in the south where the frost may return, more cloud further north will keep temperatures a bit milder. Lows about -2 C in clear spots and 1 to 4 C elsewhere.

TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with perhaps a bit of light rain or drizzle at times near the northwest coasts. Highs 7 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will become rather breezy (northerly 40-60 km/hr) with a sleety cold rain expected in some areas for part of the morning, perhaps turning to wet snow on hills. Partial clearing will follow but this will mark the return of colder air from the north, so temperatures after overnight lows of about 1 to 4 C will only rise slightly to the 5 to 7 C range before falling back before the evening hours.

THURSDAY will be quite cold to start, with morning lows -3 to +2 C, then slightly milder again by afternoon and evening as winds back into a more westerly direction while remaining fairly strong at 40-70 km/hr. Temperatures will edge back up to around 7 C or so. There could be some showers becoming wintry and mixed at times on higher terrain.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY are currently looking quite wintry especially for Ulster and parts of Connacht, the north midlands and north Leinster, as a strong northerly flow arrives with a "polar low" indicated for Scotland. This may lead to bands of mixed wintry showers dropping considerable snow on hills in northern and some western counties. Temperatures will be in the 1 to 4 C range and winds northerly 50-80 km/hr, possibly gusts to about 100 km/hr in exposed coastal areas of Ulster and north Connacht. These conditions could moderate slightly for Munster and south Leinster but the mixed wintry showers could reach those areas briefly with partly cloudy skies and cold northerly winds otherwise, highs 3 to 6 C.

By SUNDAY there should be a slight moderation as winds back to northwest, then west, allowing somewhat milder air to flow in raising temperatures a few degrees to the 6-8 C range. MONDAY may be quite mild by comparison to this coming week although given the volatility of the situation I don't really have high confidence in the guidance past about Friday at present. At any rate, especially for the northern parts of the country, expect some rather wintry conditions to develop towards the weekend. It will be significantly colder in all areas than the past two weeks.

My local weather on Sunday was mostly cloudy with a few patches of blue sky in the distance (to the east) and low cloud hanging over hills to our west, probably dropping snow up there but nothing was falling at our elevation, with temperatures around -2 C. Snow is likely to spread in here later Monday and another 10 cms will probably fall Monday night into Tuesday.

M.T. Cranium · 23-11-2021 8:58am

Tuesday, 23 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 Nov 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal values, despite a rise to above normal expected on the 29th.

-- Rain (or snow) will produce rather small amounts of precipitation perhaps reaching 25 per cent of normal values except for parts of the north which could see closer to 50 per cent.

-- Sunshine will likely amount to about 75 per cent of normal values.

-- Windy at times from the north towards the middle and end of the week -- Friday night into Saturday could see northerly gale force winds.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with perhaps a bit of light rain or drizzle at times near the northwest coasts. The inland south will start out frosty with perhaps some sunny breaks although fog may develop and caution advised for black ice lingering on roads in rural parts of west Munster currently below freezing. Temperatures have come up during the night in central counties but a few icy patches could persist in valleys. Highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy, temperatures could fall slightly after sunset in the inland southeast but elsewhere will be steady at around 5 C until a band of rain arrives from the northwest towards morning.

WEDNESDAY will become rather breezy (northerly 40-60 km/hr) with a sleety cold rain expected in some areas for part of the morning, perhaps turning to wet snow on hills. Partial clearing will follow but this will mark the return of colder air from the north, so that temperatures after overnight lows of about 1 to 4 C will only rise slightly to the 5 to 7 C range before falling back to around 2 C by the early evening hours.

THURSDAY will be quite cold to start, with morning lows -3 to +2 C, then slightly milder again by afternoon and evening as winds back into a more westerly direction while remaining fairly strong at 40-70 km/hr. Temperatures will edge back up to around 7 C or so. There could be some showers becoming wintry and mixed at times on higher terrain, both early in the day and towards the middle of Thursday night.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY are looking quite wintry especially for Ulster and parts of Connacht, the north midlands and north Leinster, as a strong northerly flow arrives with an intense "polar low" indicated for Scotland where winds could exceed 120 km/hr in places. This may lead to bands of mixed wintry showers dropping considerable snow on hills in northern and some western counties. Temperatures will be in the 1 to 4 C range and winds northerly 60-90 km/hr, possibly gusts to about 110 km/hr in exposed coastal areas of Ulster and north Connacht. These conditions would likely moderate slightly for Munster and south Leinster but the mixed wintry showers could reach those areas briefly with partly cloudy skies and cold northerly winds otherwise, highs 3 to 6 C. Travel may become dangerous through parts of Ulster and Connacht by Friday evening into Saturday morning. Conditions for the Irish Sea crossings will not be very good either with the gradient very strong all across Britain as the low drops further south. It will also be a situation of mixed wintry showers with snow on hills for most of Scotland, England and Wales.

By SUNDAY there should be a slight moderation as winds back to northwest, then west, allowing somewhat milder air to flow in raising temperatures a few degrees to the 6-8 C range. Some sleety light rain may accompany this rise in temperatures, more likely in northern areas, where it could produce local stream flooding from melting snow on hills if enough snow accumulates during the colder spell.

MONDAY looks quite mild by comparison to this coming week with highs 10 to 12 C, and this may continue into early Tuesday before a slight fall in temperatures sets in for the mid-week period starting around Wed 1st Dec, but this is currently projected to be a relatively tame cold outbreak not lasting too long before a longer mild spell sets in, possibly lasting for some time in the first half of December. There has been a tendency in the past few years for parts of months to resemble trends in previous months so this may indicate a late December wintry spell to arrive before the Christmas - New Year holiday period although mark that as speculation on my part.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy and cold with no melting of the 5-10 cm snow pack we have now, and highs only around -2 C. Light snow has just begun to fall and should continue intermittently for most of the day to come.

M.T. Cranium · 24-11-2021 8:17am

Wednesday, 24 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Nov 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.

-- Rainfalls will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal (including some sleet or snow) in the west and north, 25 to 50 per cent east and south.

-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.

-- Winds will be moderate to strong and mostly from a northwest to north direction, backing more westerly later in the interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a band of heavy showers making gradual progress southeast from west Ulster and Connacht, into the midlands and then Leinster and parts of Munster, where it will weaken by mid-day. Rainfalls of 5-10 mm are expected at first from this, diminishing to 2-5 mm as it weakens further east and southeast. There may be some partial clearing after this front passes, at least for parts of Connacht and west Ulster, as winds turn northwest to north 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 7 to 9 C with temperatures falling slowly after the frontal passage.

TONIGHT will be breezy and cold with a few passing showers of cold rain near sea level, sleet on higher ground. Lows 1 to 3 C. Winds northwest to north 40 to 60 km/hr.

THURSDAY will be breezy to windy and rather cold with a few outbreaks of light rain, turning sleety on higher ground. Winds northwest 50 to 70 km/hr will back further into the west by evening. Highs 5 to 8 C.

FRIDAY will start out with a strong west to northwest wind and outbreaks of rain, temperatures steady near 5 C. Later in the day winds will increase and turn more northerly, reaching 70 to 100 km/hr in exposed areas and 50 to 80 km/hr inland. The freezing level will gradually come lower turning some of the frequent cold rain to sleet or wet snow on hills. Some accumulations are likely above 300 metres in Ulster and possibly in the Wicklow mountains and higher portions of Connacht. Temperatures will be in the 2 to 5 C range during the worst of this wintry episode Friday evening and overnight.

SATURDAY will bring a slow moderation from the harsh windy and wet conditions early on, as winds decrease to the 40-70 km/hr range, staying northerly to northwesterly. Further bands of showers are likely, with rain and hail becoming the main components as freezing levels slowly rise again. Temperatures will be in the 3 to 6 C range, somewhat milder further west.

SUNDAY will become milder from west to east with bands of light rain marking warm fronts. Lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C east, 10 C west.

MONDAY also looks rather mild with occasional light rain and moderate westerly winds, highs near 11 C.

There will be a slight return to colder temperatures later Tuesday into Wednesday 1st of December but only by a few degrees as winds turn northwest, then milder air will return later in that week and into the weekend of 4-5 December.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast and somewhat misty with a bit of light snow in the morning, accumulations only around 1-2 cm, then freezing drizzle as temperatures edged up to near zero C.

M.T. Cranium · 25-11-2021 8:19am

Thursday, 25 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the interval of 25 Nov to 1 Dec remain about the same as discussed for several days, rather cold to Sunday, milder thereafter, and the blend will average 1 to 3 deg below normal; precipitation will be somewhat heavier than we've seen in most recent intervals but still not reaching a normal amount except possibly in parts of the northwest; sunshine will be a little less than the meagre average expected in late November, and it will be quite windy, especially on Friday night.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with some areas getting fairly generous amounts of sunshine, while a few showers feed into the north and make some progress into the midlands before dying out. Winds rather blustery from the north-northwest at 50-70 km/hr will back to the west by evening in advance of a frontal system. That will introduce the chance of rain in the north by late afternoon or early evening. Highest temperatures around 7 or 8 C but it may feel colder due to the wind.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain, turning sleety on higher terrain. The cold front will arrive about 0300h in northern Ulster so most places will maintain a steady temperature of about 3-5 C and could see a slight rise before that front pushes south. Winds westerly 50-70 km/hr.

FRIDAY will become colder from north to south around mid-morning to mid-day, but temperatures could struggle up to about 7 C in the south before the front hits there. Further north it is likely to stay around 3 or 4 C all day. Winds will be moderate from the northwest until mid-afternoon and then start increasing to strong or even very strong in exposed locations, as deep low pressure forms over eastern Britain and drops south along their east coast. Winds will veer to a more northerly direction and speeds will reach 60-90 km/hr in many places, 70-110 km/hr in exposed locations near coasts. There will be some bands of mixed wintry showers forming in this strong northerly flow and these could drop some snow on hills by Friday evening, as temperatures inland settle to around 1 or 2 C. The marine influence could keep readings closer to 4-5 C in coastal areas.

SATURDAY will see the reverse sequence as the storm weakens and moves away into Belgium, so that by mid-day the northerly winds will have subsided back to the moderate 50-70 km/hr range. It will stay quite cold in most eastern counties with a very slight warming trend in the west, mostly due to the wind backing to a northwest direction off the Atlantic which is of course quite a bit warmer (8-10 C) than these air temperatures in the 2-5 C range. Any snow that accumulates on northern hills will partially melt but some will still be around by Sunday morning. Saturday night is likely to remain quite cold in the east while a foggy, drizzly warm front edges into the western counties.

SUNDAY will become foggy and milder in most areas with light rain or drizzle at times. Highs may reach 8-10 C in the west but could be held down to around 4-6 C in the east, although it may get milder in the evening there.

MONDAY will be quite mild, despite a change in wind direction from southwest to northwest, the feed of the air mass is from the central Atlantic so temperatures will be more similar then to the ocean temperatures of 8-10 C. TUESDAY will stay relatively mild with a colder end to the day as another rather cold wedge of arctic origin drifts past on Wednesday, perhaps dropping temperatures back a few degrees, but this won't likely be as cold as the weekend. After that, alternating mild and cold spells will probably average out near the early December normal temperatures.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast and chilly with a bit of freezing drizzle at times, so rather slippery underfoot and on side streets that have been plowed but have a slick snow cover. Temperatures were probably within a degree of freezing at all times. We are expecting a fairly heavy wet snow changing to rain as the next Pacific storm moves inland on Thursday. Flood ravaged areas in recovery are bracing for this impact, which by itself would just be a normal late November storm but they don't need that much rainfall (expecting 80 mm in places).

M.T. Cranium · 26-11-2021 8:44am

Friday, 26 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 26 Nov to 2 Dec 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, rather cold to Sunday especially eastern counties, then a little milder than average next week.

-- Rainfalls will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal values in the north and west, decreasing to about 50 per cent for the east and south coasts.

-- Sunshine will be rather sparse and could only reach half of the normal amounts.

-- Very windy at times later today and early Saturday, after which mostly moderate northwest backing to west or southwest later in the period.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy with a gradual increase in wind speeds this afternoon although it is already quite windy now, northwest 50-80 km/hr may increase to northerly 60-100 km/hr. Passing showers will sometimes be rather squally and blustery, with brief brighter intervals too. Temperatures will slowly drop from current levels of 7-10 C to about 4-6 C by late afternoon. It will feel more like -2 C in the strong winds.

TONIGHT the strong northerly winds will continue with strongest gusts near the east coast and across exposed (especially hilly) areas of the west and north. Winds northerly 70-110 km/hr, some minor damage possible, in part because these winds will be coming from a direction that strong winds do not often take, possibly stressing trees or small structures in unusual ways. Bands of mixed wintry showers may develop although most of the ongoing showers will remain as cold rain or hail. One or two showers could produce lightning too. Some accumulations of wet snow on higher terrain mostly above where most people live, but impacting mountain passes in west Ulster and north Connacht. Temperatures steady 4-6 C for most areas, could drop to 2-4 C at times near wintry showers.

SATURDAY the wind will slowly moderate, staying in a north-northwest direction and back down to the current 50-80 km/hr range by mid-day. Temperatures will remain around 4-6 C for most, perhaps a bit higher on Atlantic coasts, but it will continue to feel much colder than that. Further mixed wintry showers on hills will transition back to all rain later. Closer to sea level, rain or hail showers are more likely. Some sunny breaks will also be in the mix, especially further west. Note: this has been named storm "Arwen" by the UK Met Office and parts of Britain will have more severe impacts than Ireland, in particular the east coast where tidal surges may inundate some areas, and winds could gust to 130 km/hr. Wales will also feel strong impacts from this event. Irish Sea crossings for Friday and Saturday will be rough with strong crosswinds.

SUNDAY will be less windy and slightly milder at least in western counties. A small and not very well organized "slider" event could drop down from the northwest along the nearly stalled front and produce sleet or wet snow for a time on higher ground in Connacht and Ulster. There will be fog, mist and drizzle closer to the southwest coasts. In the southeast this precipitation may only be patchy and late in arriving, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs will range from about 4-6 C in the north and east, to 8-10 C in the southwest. All areas will have morning lows in the 2-5 C range.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be breezy and relatively mild with outbreaks of light rain but also some brighter spells, in west to northwest winds of about 40-60 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

WEDNESDAY will turn a few degrees colder again with northwest winds veering northerly for a time, isolated showers and highs 6-8 C. THURSDAY will see milder air working its way back in from the west, with somewhat cooler temperatures holding on in Ulster and parts of Leinster, highs there in the range of 7-9 C, but near 11 C west and south.

The first two weeks of December are currently looking somewhat variable but generally a bit milder than average, with alternating cool spells and near normal to mild days. For this time of year, it does not look overly wet or active, but a more active spell is likely after about the 10th peaking in intensity towards the 20th of December.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with a few intervals of wet snow by afternoon, perhaps 2-3 cms new accumulation but this snow is sleety and looks set to change to rain or ice pellets for a while before the whole mess clears off to our east later Friday. Quite cold on the east coast of the U.S. and through the Great Lakes region for the "black Friday" shopping phase of American thanksgiving. Snow is expected in parts of interior New England and near the lower Great Lakes.

M.T. Cranium · 27-11-2021 8:00am

Saturday, 27 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

Most of the trends will average out near normal with variations more day to day. Will do the forecast blog format today ...

Storm Arwen has proven to be a very strong windstorm in parts of Scotland and northeast England, even across the Pennines into Cumbria, Lancs and parts of Wales; gusts to 130 km/hr have been widespread in exposed areas, and a heavy wet snow has fallen over much of that area with some reports of 5-10 cm on the ground. The storm is going to rage on for most of today, extending the strong wind zone into the east Midlands, and threatening some parts of the east coast with damaging storm surges. But in Ireland, except for some parts of Ulster, the effects of Arwen have been relatively tame with winds peaking at most locations at around 80 km/hr (some exposed northern areas saw 100 km/hr and Malin Head topped 120 km/hr).

There won't be much change for the rest of the day as Ireland remains in a moderately strong north-northwest flow, and further showers feed in from the Atlantic, having more impact on Ulster and parts of Connacht as their remnants further south will be brief. Any given shower cell could produce hail and some over hills could produce snow, one or two might release a bolt of lightning. But there will also be sunny intervals which may be fairly significant in the south today. Highs will reach about 4 to 6 C so it will feel quite cold due to the 50-80 km/hr winds.

Tonight and Sunday, the cold air is going to prove rather stubborn to leave most of Ulster, the midlands, and Leinster, despite a weak push of milder air into west Munster and coastal Connacht. A weak disturbance moving southeast along this frontal boundary could bring intervals of sleet (mixed rain and snow) but there would only be small accumulations and mostly on higher ground. Temperatures overnight and Sunday will remain fairly steady in the range of 2 to 5 C, but the strong winds will relent and that will ease the chill somewhat. Milder air will bring temperatures up gradually in west Munster and coastal Connacht to around 7 to 9 C; some fog, light rain or drizzle is likely with that warming trend.

Monday the colder air over eastern counties will finally be shoved east and any lingering sleet or wet snow should change to intermittent light rain as temperatures warm to around 9 C. Further west it could reach 11 C with occasional outbreaks of light rain possible, but partly cloudy intervals also. The winds on Monday will pick up again to westerly 40-60 km/hr. Tuesday the first half of the day will be mild and dry, then a frontal band of rain will sweep in from the northwest, 5 to 10 mm likely, and winds will begin to veer more to the northwest by evening, staying in the 40-60 km/hr range. Highs on Tuesday generally around 10 C.

Wednesday will become quite cold again in a brisk northwest wind reaching 50-70 km/hr. There will be passing showers of rain or hail, more persistent near the Atlantic coasts. Highs 5 to 7 C.

Thursday will start out cold and in some places a bit on the frosty side but milder air will slowly seep in from the west, so that temperatures by evening could be back up around 8 to 10 C. This mild wedge will remain over Ireland until mid-day Friday when a slightly colder flow will arrive, so temperatures will remain mild until then, dropping back to 4-6 C later Friday. Although it will try to warm up slowly in a weak southerly flow next weekend, the main energy of the jet stream will split around a developing blocking high over Scandinavia, and this may stall the warming trend at around 7 or 8 C and then allow a slight drop as some of that colder air seeps in (very gradually as the gradients will be very slack) around Monday or Tuesday (6th-7th Dec). No really wintry cold will develop although there could be one or two frosty mornings, but then the Atlantic will regain energy and come blasting back in towards the end of that week with the potential for strong or even severe winds indicated (for around Friday 9th into the weekend of 11th-12th).

My local weather started out with a shower of snow pellets and low cloud, in fact going down into the Columbia valley cloud was based lower than our local elevation here, but down there almost no snow had accumulated over the past few days and there were light rain showers before a clearing trend set in. Highs reached about 6 C in the valley and 3 C up here, with a bit of our snow melting but more of a slushy impact. Another strong storm is moving in from the Pacific and will last through the weekend on the coast, the outcome here will be intervals of sleet and cold rain perhaps ending with some snow again.

M.T. Cranium · 28-11-2021 7:17am

Sunday, 28 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 28 Nov to 4 Dec 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, possibly a bit below in the east and slightly above in the west.

-- Rainfalls will average about 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

-- Sunshine will average near normal.

-- Winds generally moderate and from west to northwest directions much of the time.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of sleety light rain in central counties, trending to mist and drizzle further west. It will remain rather cold in the east and north with highs 4 to 6 C. Somewhat milder by afternoon in the west and parts of the south, highs 8 to 10 C. Some wet snow or sleet on hills.

TONIGHT the weak warm front will make limited progress and may be pushed back west for a time, so that temperatures will remain divided, 2 to 4 C in the east, and 5 to 8 C in the west. Some further drizzle or light sleet possible.

MONDAY will see the frontal boundary slowly pushing back to the east, expelling the last remaining cold air by afternoon from the east and north. By late in the day all areas should be in a milder air mass with occasional outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY will start out dry and mild, with highs near 10 C. Then a frontal band will move in with an interval of showery rainfalls (5-10 mm), as temperatures drop steadily to near 4 C.

WEDNESDAY will be windy and colder with passing showers of hail or sleet, morning lows 1-3 C and afternoon highs 5-7 C.

THURSDAY the colder air will hold on for a time, as milder air seeps into western counties, so that by mid-day temperatures will be typically 4-6 C in the east but 8-10 C further west. Some light rain could develop, followed by a steady rainfall overnight in milder southwesterly winds.

FRIDAY a slight cooling trend will return and temperatures will fall back slowly to around 7 C with outbreaks of light rain, but brighter spells by afternoon.

The following weekend should see fairly mild conditions in the west, and cold in the east, as a chilly air mass over central and northern Europe extends its influence slowly west for a while, in advance of a rather stormy interval that is expected to develop in the following week. Details on that are quite sketchy at this early stage but there may be quite a bit of cold air around to interact with these stronger Atlantic disturbances which could lead to frontal boundary snowfalls for some parts of Ireland, more likely north and east.

My local weather on Saturday started out overcast and rather foggy with temperatures near +1 C. Wet snow began at mid-day and was largely melting on contact, so the accumulations were quite slushy and since sunset this has changed over to light rain as temperatures edged up to +3 C. Heavy rain is falling in the areas recently hit by floods and mudslides, crews are working at a fever pitch to reinforce some dikes in the worst hit areas. The outcome of that will not be known until later tomorrow. Then there's a brief break before yet another rainstorm hits on Tuesday.

M.T. Cranium · 29-11-2021 8:00am

Monday, 29 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values with a cold interval mid-week, but milder both early and late in the period.

-- Rainfalls will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

-- Sunshine will also average about 50 to 75 per cent of normal.

-- Moderate wind speeds most of the time, often west to northwest in direction.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, with a few outbreaks of light rain or drizzle in the east this morning until a warm front slowly pushes through. Temperatures will edge upwards to about 10 or 11 C in many areas by afternoon and remain fairly close to that in the evening hours.

TONIGHT will see a bit of light rain or drizzle and mist, with lows 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with a dry start, then intervals of rain, heavy at times in Ulster and north Connacht where 15-25 mm could fall but more showery in the 5-10 mm range further south, also the rain will be mostly during the overnight hours in the south and east. Highs 10 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY will become rather cold with northwest winds of 40 to 70 km/hr and passing showers, some with hail and thunder, and a touch of snow on some hills. Morning lows 2 to 5 C and afternoon highs 5 to 8 C.

THURSDAY will have a cold and frosty start in the east and midlands, lows near -3 C. Highs will reach about 8 to 10 C as milder air slowly returns from the west. Showers or intervals of rain by evening. Temperatures will stay fairly mild overnight then drop gradually towards morning.

FRIDAY will become slightly colder again with partly cloudy to overcast skies and highs near 8 C.

The pattern from then on will be rather variable with some cold days, and some closer to average, but probably not getting very mild as winds will keep turning west to northwest soon after any slight warmings take place.

My local weather on Sunday turned quite mild (8-10 C) with a bit of light rain at times, slushy now as snow begins to melt gradually.

M.T. Cranium · 30-11-2021 8:56am

Tuesday, 30 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 30 Nov to 6 Dec 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.

-- Rainfall will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal values.

-- Sunshine will average near normal.

-- Winds will be moderate west to northwest much of the time, potential exists for strong winds near end of the interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy and mild, with outbreaks of rain starting soon in Ulster, spreading by afternoon into north Connacht and parts of the midlands. This rain will then quickly overspread most of Leinster and Munster this evening. Becoming rather windy with the rain's arrival, southwest to west at 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will see the showery band of rain quickly moving south, followed by colder northwest winds 40-70 km/hr, and some wintry showers in parts of the north by morning. Lows 2 to 5 C, mildest south coast.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy, breezy and cold with passing showers, often turning to hail with snow on higher slopes. Winds northwest 40-70 km/hr adding a chill to daytime highs of only 4 to 8 C.

THURSDAY will start with a widespread frost and lows near -3 C. The middle portions of the day will be dry, breezy and mostly cloudy with temperatures slowly rising through the 4 to 7 C range. Temperatures may peak near 9 C in the evening when it begins to rain.

FRIDAY the early morning rain will quickly move east, and as winds become more northwesterly, somewhat colder air will arrive, so that temperatures will be around 5 C by daybreak, and only rise slightly to about 7 C during the day, with winds west-northwest 50-80 km/hr, and by afternoon or evening there could be an outbreak of rain turning to sleet on higher ground, as a disturbance forms in this northwesterly flow. Some coatings of snow may develop on hills Friday night.

SATURDAY will continue quite cold and breezy (west-northwest 40-60 km/hr) with some brighter spells and passing wintry showers, lows near -1 C and highs near 4 C.

SUNDAY will be less breezy and there may be widespread dry intervals but with some sleety light rain approaching western counties by afternoon. Lows near -3 C and highs near 6 C.

MONDAY there will likely be a sleety rainfall during the overnight and morning hours, with partial clearing to follow. Highs near 7 C.

The outlook for the rest of next week is somewhat uncertain, with some guidance showing very strong southwest to west winds developing around mid-week, but this is too far off to expect much agreement among various models. The pattern beyond that possible event looks like a continuation of the rather cold and windy west to northwest flow of modified arctic air much of the time, so the long range forecast for December currently looks like this, frequently rather cold and showery, occasionally stormy, likely to see a lot of mixed wintry showers and probably a snowfall or two eventually, with temperatures 1 to 2 deg below normal and precipitation 25 to 50 per cent above normal.

My local weather on Monday started gloomy with light rain and mild temperatures. The cloud base came down so low that we found ourselves in dense fog driving down into the Columbia valley, breaking out of that near the river. Then that low overcast began to break up and by afternoon back up top the weather had turned sunny, with an interval of odd looking fog clouds draped across the valley below, a very bright white colour with grey scud in the distance obscuring any hills in that direction, but turned around the view was blue skies and hills covered in snow, although most of the snow has melted in the town now (there was never much down in the valley and that had all gone by lunch time). Highs were close to 10 C. At the coast this break represented the gap between the departing rainstorm and the next one incoming, as the fight against further flooding continues. Expecting a sleety wet snow to begin here later Tuesday turning to rain overnight.

M.T. Cranium · 01-12-2021 8:32am

Wednesday, 1 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 Dec 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg below normal values.

-- Rainfalls will average about 75 per cent of normal; there is some chance of a heavier total for west Munster (see forecast discussion Tues-Wed)

-- Sunshine will average near normal, which is only about 2 hours a day now.

-- Winds will continue moderately strong from the northwest, sometimes backing westerly. Again, there is a chance of an interval of very strong winds, see the same discussion.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy, breezy and cold with passing showers, often turning to hail with snow on higher slopes. Winds northwest 50-80 km/hr adding a chill to daytime highs of only 4 to 8 C.

TONIGHT the winds will moderate and showers will die out, with a resulting risk of frost in many places, lows -3 to +1 C.

THURSDAY will start with a widespread frost and lows near -3 C. The middle portions of the day will be dry, breezy and mostly cloudy with temperatures slowly rising through the 4 to 7 C range. Temperatures may peak near 9 C in the evening when it begins to rain.

FRIDAY the early morning rain will quickly move east, and as winds become more northwesterly, somewhat colder air will arrive, so that temperatures will be around 5 C by daybreak, and only rise slightly to about 7 C during the day, with winds west-northwest 50-80 km/hr, and by afternoon or evening there could be an outbreak of rain turning to sleet on higher ground, as a disturbance forms in this northwesterly flow. Some coatings of snow may develop on hills Friday night.

SATURDAY will continue quite cold and breezy (west-northwest 40-60 km/hr but 60-90 km/hr in Ulster and some parts of coastal Connacht, west Munster) with some brighter spells and passing wintry showers, lows near -1 C and highs near 4 C in the north, 6 C south.

SUNDAY will be less breezy and there may be widespread dry intervals but with some sleety light rain approaching western counties by afternoon. Lows near -3 C and highs near 6 C north, 8 C south.

MONDAY there will likely be a sleety rainfall during the overnight and morning hours, with partial clearing to follow. Highs near 7 C.

TUESDAY we are faced with a large spread of guidance from various forecast models. Two sources (European, Canadian GEM) develop a very strong low west of Ireland and that would track across Munster into northern France. The results of that would be strong winds mostly from the east to northeast (possibly westerly for Kerry, Cork coasts) and a sleety but heavy rainfall that would turn to heavy snow on hills. Other models including U.S. (GFS), UKMO, and Japanese (JMA) do not develop this storm and continue with moderate westerly flow and temperatures in the same range of 6 to 9 C. Yet other models do not go past Monday but looking at the end of their guidance I don't get much of a hint of this storm's sudden appearance. This situation will no doubt converge on one solution by tomorrow. The GFS model comes with an "ensemble" of thirty possible outcomes run from slightly different biases, and those tend to split 2:1 in favour of the no storm outcome, but the uncertainty factor is high by Tues-Wed with a difference of over 30 mbs shown for the ensembles near Ireland by then. You'll notice that Met Eireann are also uncertain about this possible outcome and say that it may become windy later Tuesday.

If the strong low did materialize, its effects would be felt for most of Wednesday before clearing from the north, and a brief interval of cool east winds, then back to the chilly westerly flow off the Atlantic later in the week. If the storm fails to materialize, then the chilly westerly pattern would simply continue on all week. Here again, hoping to have a bit more certainty on this odd situation by tomorrow's forecast message.

It could be that the compromise solution that all models might wander towards would be a moderately strong low that tracks more west to east and brings an interval of stronger westerly winds. Not saying this is my forecast for those two days, but something has to give when the normally reliable model suite goes into this mode of warring factions. In such cases, solutions are usually fairly close to what one camp is saying, but you can also get third option compromises sometimes.

My local weather remained mild and damp all day with temperatures in the 5-7 C range. They continue to deal with localized flooding problems in coastal parts of BC but the good news is that a pattern shift is expected once this present low moves on late today, and the new trend will be a colder and drier pattern where only small amounts of precipitation will occur and much of that would be snow except right along the coast. That should allow all of the currently raging rivers to subside back to more normal flows within a week.

M.T. Cranium · 02-12-2021 8:45am

Thursday, 2 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 Dec 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal.

-- Rainfalls will average near normal and possibly a little above normal in parts of Munster.

-- Sunshine will average about 25 per cent above normal.

-- Winds often moderately strong northwesterly may become gale or storm force at times next week, from west or southwest.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be less windy and the passing showers have pretty much died out for the time being. After some brighter spells this morning, around mid-day increasing cloud will signal the approach of a disturbance for the overnight hours, with winds slowly increasing again. Highs 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will become rather windy and cold with outbreaks of rain turning to sleet over northern hills, lows 2 to 5 C. Winds increasing to westerly 40 to 70 km/hr then northwest 50 to 80 km/hr.

FRIDAY will see a temporary decrease in these strong winds and brief dry intervals before outbreaks of rain in the south, turning sleety on hills there. Northern counties may remain dry but then a second disturbance will move in there by late afternoon. A few places in between these two will be waiting for any rain to begin up to almost midnight. Highs will reach about 7 to 9 C. By Friday night, the northern disturbance will drop southeast into the Irish Sea and will drag along some mixed wintry showers in a strengthening northwest wind reaching 50-80 km/hr by morning. Lows near 2 C.

SATURDAY will be windy and quite cold with passing mixed wintry showers, some hail and thunder likely at lower elevations, snow on some hills. Winds northwest 60-90 km/hr will bring a chill along with the temperatures steady near 4 C. These strong winds will abate slowly overnight into early Sunday.

SUNDAY there will be some dry intervals and slightly milder temperatures around 7 to 9 C again, followed by outbreaks of light rain, lasting into early Monday with temperatures steady 3 to 5 C.

MONDAY will likely be a fairly unsettled day in moderate southwest to west winds, with highs near 7 C.

TUESDAY the models now have reached more or less agreement on stormy weather being likely, but those models with the southeast track and east winds have phased more into the zonal flow and southwest to west winds eventually, although as the disturbance approaches the strong winds could start off southeasterly for a time. Details are still emerging on this rather complex set up but there seems to be potential for a strong wind event to develop in some parts of the country with different models now showing different regions under that threat, so at this point it looks like at least some parts of Ireland will have gale or even storm force wind gusts, probably from a southwest to west direction. Temperatures seem likely to stay in the same range as previous days, 7 to 10 C. Heavy rain is possible with this disturbance too. It could be a two-day event lasting well into Wednesday before it moves off to the east or northeast.

There are still indications of further storm development after that one comes and goes, but the details that far out can be shelved for now as we await a better understanding of what this first storm is going to do.

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy and mild with highs near 10 C. Some valley locations further west got well up into the teens and even hit 20 C in a few places in the Okanagan valley setting date and even all-time December records. We're having a pretty memorable weather year here. This is the last gasp of the parade of Pacific storms which will now relax for a while and let high pressure take over, eventually we will see a drop below freezing from the current mild levels.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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