Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 3 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS may indeed be similar to those discussed yesterday, but there is so much uncertainty about the details of Tuesday's potential stormy weather that we can't really be very precise about these trends beyond Monday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter spells most likely in north central counties. An area of light rain will overspread the southern half of the country later this morning and will then move out during the afternoon after dropping 5-10 mm rainfalls and some sleet on hills. Parts of the north will escape this altogether. Then a separate frontal system approaching from the northwest will arrive in western and northern counties towards late afternoon with increasing wind speeds and showery rainfalls. Highs for most areas around 8 or 9 C.

TONIGHT will become windy and colder with rain turning to sleet on northern higher ground. Winds will increase to northwest 50-80 km/hr before daybreak. Lows 1 to 3 C.

SATURDAY will be windy and cold with passing showers of hail or in some higher areas, sleet. Some lightning may be produced by these showers. There will also be bright sunny intervals between the showers. Winds northwest 60 to 90 km/hr, and highs 4 to 6 C.

SUNDAY will start out rather cold and frosty but may turn a bit milder by afternoon as the cold northwest winds relax and back to west then southwest. A few outbreaks of light rain will be mostly confined to western coastal counties. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 6 to 10 C.

MONDAY will have some early morning rain from a weak frontal wave moving through, then fresh westerly winds and temperatures steady in the range of 5 to 8 C.

By Monday night into TUESDAY, we have the full range of model uncertainty on display and you can choose any forecast you want. Most of the guidance shows rather intense low pressure near Ireland and there is every chance of a named storm and damaging wind gusts for at least coastal areas. But there are other solutions offered that show this powerful storm developing further south and moving into any part of England or even France, outcomes that might give a considerably less intense scenario for Ireland ranging from variable wind directions and heavy rain, to no stormy weather at all. The highest probability outcome is probably the one where low pressure intensifies west of Ireland and tracks through Ulster into the north Irish Sea, then possibly southeast or at least east-southeast across parts of England. That would bring intervals of very strong winds 80 to 120 km/hr and bursts of heavy showery rain with temperatures in the 7 to 10 C range. The more southerly tracks could bring heavier rainfalls and less intense winds with temperatures a bit lower especially in the north and west on the colder side of that kind of storm.

Once this disturbance comes and goes, another front will likely follow in from the Atlantic by mid-week with further rainfalls and moderate southwest to west winds. There could be a reload situation for a second storm within a few days of that too. Quite a volatile weather pattern is developing, driven by a tight jet stream being forced further south across the Atlantic by developments in North America where the storm track is also intensifying and dropping southward.

My local weather on Thursday featured sunshine and patchy high clouds, with mild temperatures near 6 C. Under clear skies it has become quite cold now and a much colder week lies ahead with snow at times along the U.S. border as lows will now track into the region across WA and OR into southern Idaho and Wyoming. This will put an end to the flooding and give crews better conditions to complete recovery work but the one problem may be that any lingering floodwater could freeze. The snowfalls should be relatively light, in the 5-10 cm range for most places. The first of these will start in coastal areas later today and spread into my neck of the woods by Saturday morning. Another one is due on Tuesday or so, in between clear and quite cold.

If I see anything resembling guidance consensus for Tuesday, whatever that turns out to be, I will post an evening update, otherwise perhaps there will be a clearer idea where this potential storm is going by tomorrow morning's ramble.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 4 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 Dec 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal.

-- Rainfalls will average 25 per cent above normal.

-- Sunshine will average near normal values with a mix of sunny and cloudy days.

-- Winds will often be rather strong and could be very strong at times on Tuesday (as well as today in places).

FORECASTS

TODAY will become very windy from north to south this morning, with squally showers of hail and even snow on some higher ground. The northwest winds of 60 to 100 km/hr will make the already cold temperatures feel bitter as current values fall back to around 3-4 C with wind chill values around -3 C. Some accumulations of hail or snow on roads could make for some hazardous driving conditions and bright sunlight nearby won't help matters. Be prepared for sudden changes in the weather if you plan to be out today, especially if travelling through central or northern counties.

TONIGHT will see these strong winds gradually moderating and bands of wintry showers will slowly die out, leading to some local frosts under partly cloudy skies. Lows -2 to +3 C.

SUNDAY will be much less windy and temperatures will moderate slightly, so it will feel considerably milder at 6-8 C. Winds moderate northwest at first will back to west then southwest as a trough approaches by evening. Rain will spread into the west around sunset.

MONDAY will start with moderate southwest winds and intervals of rain (3-5 mm) then partial clearing for a time, still rather moderate winds backing to southerly, morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs 7-9 C.

By MONDAY night stormy weather will spread into many areas with southwest winds 70-110 km/hr likely, and rain in many areas, 10-20 mm expected by morning. Overnight temperatures steady around 8 C.

TUESDAY, the most likely outcome appears to be that the low will move into northern counties during the morning and then move southeast. This will expose west Munster and the south coast to the strongest winds and gusts to 130 km/hr are possible there. At the same time, this track will mean that parts of Connacht might see the opposite trend, the strong overnight winds might be reduced to near calm for a while as the centre of the low moves across, to be followed by gusty northeast to northerly winds later. Leinster and Ulster will see winds backing to southeast as the low tracks past them to the south, with bands of rain or even sleet likely to be persistent there. Some squally showers and thunderstorms could develop in the southeast. Eventually most places will see temperatures falling after any brief incursions of milder air from the Atlantic (could be 10-12 C in west Munster for part of the day), and by afternoon and evening temperatures will be 3-6 C. Rainfalls of 20-40 mm are possible, and some accumulating wet snow on hills.

While this is my best guess as to how the storm plays out, it could track further north and drag strong winds and milder temperatures further into the midlands or even central and south Leinster, or it could drop southeast earlier and have a less windy outcome for most regions but a more wintry mixed precipitation field too. I expect further changes in the guidance so that no forecasts for Tuesday and Wednesday can be called more than moderately confident at this point.

By WEDNESDAY with the storm drifting off towards Cornwall and/or France, Ireland will be left in a rather brisk northerly flow. The further evolution remains in some doubt, one possible outcome would be that the winds would back around to northeast and east for a time. Another model solution shows another weaker system pushing in behind the Tuesday storm and keeping the weather unsettled with another round of southeast winds and rain or sleet. Either way it seems like temperatures from Wednesday to about Friday could be rather cold, in the 4-7 C range. Beyond that almost anything could happen and I am taking a wait and see approach, as blocking high pressure and an active Atlantic storm track will have further battles to fight, with perhaps quite a range of weather as a result.

My local weather on Friday was overcast, rather cold but dry, with temperatures near -2 C. Snow is moving in tonight. We're expecting about 15 cms by late Saturday here.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 5 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT issued for stormy conditions in some parts of the country on Tuesday, southwest and south coast should be on high alert despite a lot of guidance showing the storm tracking into Connacht; strongest winds will be south of the storm track in any case, but there are some shifts towards the south in guidance overnight, with other elements holding to previous indications. We cannot rule out very strong winds in any region yet, so be alert for further forecast updates.

TRENDS remain similar to yesterday, rather cold, unsettled, some sunshine in the mix, and very windy at times.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see a welcome drop in wind speeds and this will make it feel warmer even though temperatures are only going to recover slightly with highs around 7 to 9 C, partly cloudy to overcast skies, and some isolated outbreaks of light rain. A more organized rainfall will begin in the west towards the end of the daytime hours.

TONIGHT will bring rain and stronger winds again, for a time, southwest to west 50-70 km/hr. Lows near 3 C. About 5-10 mm of rain expected.

MONDAY is definitely the "calm before the storm" with winds remaining moderate until evening, backing to southerly by afternoon. Some sunny intervals and a scattering of showers near Atlantic coasts mainly, highs 7-10 C.

MONDAY NIGHT into TUESDAY a powerful Atlantic storm will develop rapidly off the coast and move in by Tuesday morning. The track is still not certain and all parts of the Atlantic coast should be on alert for a risk of strong and possibly damaging wind gusts. The chances seem somewhat higher in central and southwest regions as many sources of guidance indicate a landfall near Galway and the strongest winds are always some distance south of the landfall in these storms. But that could change closer to the time. In any case, what seems fairly certain is that all regions will see increasing south to southwest winds reaching 60-100 km/hr, rain becoming heavy at times, and temperatures steady 8-10 C, during the storm approach.

By mid-day TUESDAY some areas will be feeling the force of 90-130 km/hr winds from a westerly direction as the low moves inland (probably), and there is even some potential for gusts into the 150 km/hr range and localized need for red alerts. That could be anywhere from about Galway Bay south to the Kerry-Cork coastal regions and including the Shannon estuary. If the storm came inland over Clare then there is greater potential for damaging winds to extend inland as they did with Darwin in Feb 2014. But that is a hypothetical consideration at this stage. Coastal flooding is quite likely where the strongest winds occur as the tidal range will remain high for several more days. Temperatures would likely start to come down slowly towards 5 C, and areas north and east of the low's track would see much less windy conditions and a steady rainfall of 10-25 mm. Squally showers and localized thunderstorms could occur south of the low's track.

By TUESDAY night into WEDNESDAY, the storm will be in a slowly weakening phase and likely moving through some part of Britain, possibly in a southeast direction, which will mean that winds could come around to a northeast direction fairly quickly in parts of Ulster and Leinster, more north to northwest for Connacht and Munster. With this wind shift will come rather cold temperatures in the 2-5 C range and sleety bands of rain, hail and local hill snows. Winds will be in the 50-80 km/hr range once the core of the storm has passed.

By THURSDAY a secondary disturbance will be pushing in against whatever force of east winds remains, possibly not very much so that another interval of southeast to southwest winds will develop, but this disturbance will only produce moderate wind gusts in the 50-70 km/hr range, and 5-10 mm rainfalls with temperatures likely to edge up to around 7 C.

The pattern beyond that looks more settled and somewhat milder, but with a low confidence attached since this powerful storm needs to play out its full hand before the models can really get a grip on those further developments.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with about 8 cms of snow by 1100h, after which it slowly cleared up with temperatures steady around -3 C. It looks lovely outside now with all the bare ground and dirt covered up for the time being. Meanwhile, your Tuesday storm is currently a fast-moving "wave" of low pressure south of Newfoundland close to a very strong gradient in sea surface temperatures, with the 20 C contour being close to 40 deg N latitude in the western Atlantic. The low pressure wave will continue to move steadily east, slowly gaining intensity today and Monday, and is expected to undergo explosive development around 25 to 20 W longitude near 52N latitude. The M6 buoy will hopefully give us indications of what is happening out there on Monday night. But forecasts could change before that, stay tuned.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 6 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for very strong winds across most southern counties, especially strong for west Munster, developing Tuesday morning and peaking around early afternoon. Widespread moderate to heavy rainfalls of 20 to 35 mm are expected also, all in association with storm Barra. Some squally showers with hail and thunder may sweep through the south and some central counties. Coastal flooding is likely in Galway Bay, and various other exposed areas of the southwest and south coasts. Impacts somewhat more moderate for Dublin and most of Leinster, Ulster.

TRENDS remain the same, rather cold, somewhat above normal rainfalls, and little by way of sunshine, with moderate to strong winds most of the time.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see an improving trend after morning showers and gusty westerly winds abate, with some pleasant sunny intervals to follow, and just moderate westerly breezes backing to southerly later. Highs 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will become windy around midnight after some eastern counties see a brief frosty interval, and temperatures will slowly rise in most areas or remain steady further west, in advance of stronger winds developing towards morning, south to southwest 70-110 km/hr in exposed south and west coast locations, and 40-70 km/hr for most other locations.

TUESDAY will become stormy across the south with southwest winds veering to west-northwest during the course of the day, 90 to 130 km/hr and risk of even higher gusts in exposed coastal areas of west Munster. Squally showers and thunderstorms with total rainfalls 10-20 mm in the south. Further north, as storm Barra approaches the Galway Bay area, most of Connacht and parts of the midlands will see winds abating for several hours as the slack central portion of the system moves in. Before that happens rather windy and wet with south winds backing in some places to southeast then east at about 40-70 km/hr, rainfalls 20-35 mm, and some sleet or snow on hills. Temperatures will be steady in the 7-9 C range for most places, although closer to 5 C over northern counties, as storm Barra is not going to bring in particularly mild Atlantic air, but will quickly be encircled by rather cold air that will become progressively colder as the low moves further east. In summary, considerable potential for disruption and damaging winds, coastal flooding likely. The effects are expected to be worst in west Munster but that could extend into parts of Galway and the inland southeast at times.

By Tuesday night a somewhat weakened storm Barra will be centered near Belfast with the remnants of its strong westerly winds reaching the east coast but only gusting to about 80-100 km/hr by then. Similar northwest winds will be buffeting most of Connacht and west Ulster, reaching the midlands by about midnight. It will turn cold enough for hill snow to begin in some areas, 2-5 cm could accumulate in higher parts of Connacht and Ulster. So for those in Dublin and many parts of the midlands and Ulster, this should be a less impactful storm than further south or west, although it may even so be able to do some minor damage in places. Be on high alert and avoid travel in Munster, south Connacht and possibly the inland southeast and coastal south Leinster also.

WEDNESDAY will remain overccast, windy and cold with sleet or wet snow on hills, cold rains near sea level, with 5-10 mm additional accumulation expected. Lows 2-5 C and highs 7-8 C.

THURSDAY will be overcast with occasional rain and highs near 7 C.

The weather is expected to remain rather cold through next weekend and could become a few degrees milder next week.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and very cold with highs near -5 C. It is clouding over now with snow moving into coastal regions and arriving here by afternoon, 5-15 cm expected from this system. Much milder in the central and eastern states but with this cold air mass pushing in rapidly behind another strong low developing in northern Ontario heading for Quebec. A gusty cold front will race east and hit the east coast cities by this evening with possible severe wind gusts there also.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 7 December, 2021 __ Forecasts for Ireland

ALERTS continued for very strong winds in most regions, southwest to west 110-140 km/hr across Munster and some parts of south Leinster, southeast 90-130 km/hr southeast in most other regions, then later this afternoon through the overnight hours into parts of Wednesday morning, very strong northwest winds 80-120 km/hr (locally 100-140 km/hr in Clare, Kerry). Some further heavy rainfall for east and north, squally showers likely at times in west Munster spreading in behind the departing steady rainfalls. Some higher elevations will see 3-6 cm snow accumulations, slushy mixtures at lower elevations of Connacht and west Ulster, some parts of inland Leinster.

FORECAST UPDATE

Storm Barra has tracked as expected towards the Aran Islands with the centre at 0830h estimated to be about 100 miles west of Loop Head in southwest county Clare. It is estimated that the centre will make a landfall near Galway around 1300h today after tracking across the Aran Islands, and then will move east-north-east towards southeast Ulster by this evening and into the north Irish Sea overnight. Very strong southwest winds will intensify within the next 2-4 hours across most of Munster, reaching speeds of 110-150 km/hr in exposed locations, with considerable damage potential. High seas and battering waves will produce storm surge conditions in some south and west facing bays and inlets. Squally showers and thunderstorms are possible. These conditions will only begin to moderate slowly by this evening with a gradual shift in wind direction to west-northwest. County Clare may then see an increase in their wind speeds to the 110-150 km/hr range since being closer to the centre this morning they may have somewhat lower wind speeds then. Highs today 7-10 C ... For most of Connacht, the currently strong southeast winds and rain with hill snow will give way to an interval of less windy weather around the time of landfall (1200-1400h) as the slack gradients near the centre of storm Barra move through, then winds will likely increase rapidly from the northwest to reach 90-130 km/hr, from the coast inland over the afternoon hours. Highs 4-7 C. Some slushy accumulations of snow are likely by late afternoon. ... For Leinster, the midlands and most of Ulster, the current strong southeast winds and rain will continue for several more hours with some increase in wind speed to 80-120 km/hr, then some partial clearing will develop as winds veer to southwest at similar speeds, or with a drop to 50-80 km/hr closer to the centre of the storm. Temperatures will be steady 4-7 C. About 10-20 mm further rain is likely.

TONIGHT most areas will be under a strong northwesterly flow with bands of mixed wintry showers, some slushy accumulations of snow likely, and winds northwest 80-120 km/hr with some stronger gusts possible. Lows 1 to 3 C.

WEDNESDAY the strong northwest winds will only begin to moderate slowly by afternoon from southwest to northeast, and the extent of mixed wintry showers will also be reduced by later in the day, but some accumulations of snow in the 3-6 cm range are possible especially over somewhat higher parts of the north, west and higher parts of the southeast. High temperatures 2 to 5 C. Feeling closer to -3 C in the strong winds.

THURSDAY will bring a secondary disturbance with rain, sleet and wet snow at different elevations, moderate west to northwest winds, lows near 2 C and highs near 6 C. Winds in the 50-80 km/hr range

The pattern remains unsettled for several more days with a slightly milder trend by next week.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with light snow and very cold with highs barely above -10 C. Strong winds developed on the east coast of the U.S. and snow squalls in the lower Great Lakes in association with another strong low moving through eastern North America.

Will probably issue an updated forecast around 1200h to fine tune the details. I would strongly recommend sheltering in place in many parts of the country for the rest of today and possibly overnight into early Wednesday, avoid all travel if possible.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday 7 Dec 1630h __ Forecast Update

The centre of storm Barra has tracked into the midlands as expected and is currently over Westmeath (957 mbs). A large area of the midlands and inland Connacht remain in a zone of slack gradients and light winds. The west coast of Connacht, and county Clare, have recently been swept by stronger northwest to north winds with gusts to 110 km/hr in Connacht and 130 km/hr in Clare. Most of west Munster otherwise has seen bands of very strong winds with somewhat more moderate intervals between them, and all of those zones are shifting gradually with the further motion of the storm to the east-northeast. Most of Leinster has been in a more moderate wind zone apart from some very strong coastal gusts this morning but now the inland southeast is beginning to feel some of the stronger westerly gusts which are the tail end of even stronger bands further west. This is somewhat similar to storm Darwin in 2014 but probably not to the same intensity so tree damage in south central counties should be isolated rather than widespread.

The forecast element of this message is simply to say that the very strong northwest flow setting in behind Barra will slowly increase its coverage this evening and by about 8 p.m. it will probably have overspread most of Connacht and the northwest parts of Leinster. Bands of sleety mixed precipitation will form, with slushy accumulations likely in many areas, settling snow above about 200 metres asl. Temperatures will be around 2-4 C and winds north-northwest 80-120 km/hr in exposed areas, and 50-80 km/hr more generally. These conditions may be particularly severe around north coastal Mayo and Sligo, and parts of Donegal by later this evening. A modified version of these conditions will eventually reach coastal Leinster with wind direction more west-northwest, temperatures 2-4 C, mixed precipitation mostly by elevation around the Wicklow Hills, and wind speeds 50-80 km/hr with some higher gusts. The areas that have had strong westerly winds most of the day will see a gradual moderation with some variations hour to hour, but a general downward trend in wind speeds to reach the 50-80 km/hr range later tonight. Temperatures will be around 3-4 C in low elevations and 1-2 C on higher ground where some snow may accumulate, otherwise mixed wintry showers are likely.

The unpleasantly cold and unsettled conditions will persist well into Wednesday with further slushy accumulations of snow, before there is much improvement and that will be short-lived ahead of another disturbance expected to arrive on Thursday, with a brief moderation of temperatures late in the day, to be followed by quite a cold day with some snow showers in the mix for Friday.

Stay safe, and remember that after dark driving will be more hazardous in some areas even if the weather seems to be moderating, because of unseen hazards that may be on the roads, and the lag time between rain in hilly areas and runoff. There could also be another round of coastal flooding later in areas that saw this earlier today as well as new areas being exposed to onshore winds for the first time in the storm such as north Connacht and parts of Ulster where winds might have been from a land direction in some cases.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 8 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 Dec 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal or slightly above as a warming trend sets in by this weekend; until Friday it will remain colder than average then after that it should warm to around 3-5 deg above normal for about a week.

-- Rainfalls will be near average in general.

-- Sunshine will be 75 to 100 per cent of normal in this cloudiest part of the year where normal is barely two hours a day.

-- These current strong winds will subside to more moderate levels and the trend over the coming week to two weeks seems to be a gradual reduction in wind speeds to a temporary return to the mid-November pattern with slack winds under high pressure at times. That will take at least this coming week and probably longer though.

FORECASTS

TODAY will continue very windy in parts of Ulster, Connacht and north Leinster, with northwest winds of 80 to 120 km/hr gradually moderating to the 60 to 90 km/hr range. There will also be bands of cold sleety rain with some slushy accumulations of wet snow possible especially over higher parts of the region. Highs 3 to 6 C and feeling closer to -1 C in the strong winds. For the south and west, it will also remain quite windy, northwest 50-80 km/hr for most areas, with a few passing showers but longer bright intervals too. Highs 5 to 8 C.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy to clear and less windy for a time, with local frosts, lows -2 to +2 C.

THURSDAY will quickly turn rather windy again, although not a strong storm, with an interval of rain and temperatures briefly pushing up to 7 to 10 C, then falling back steadily by afternoon and evening as winds turn northwesterly increasing to about 50-80 km/hr, with temperatures by evening 2-4 C.

FRIDAY will be windy and cold with passing wintry showers, some accumulations of snow possible on hills, winds northwest 50-80 km/hr and morning lows around -1 C, afternoon highs 3-6 C.

SATURDAY will become milder in stages with sleety light rain in the morning in some eastern counties, a faster warming trend for the west, and eventually a rise in temperatures to near 10 C in all areas, with fog and drizzle.

SUNDAY will continue rather mild with further outbreaks of light rain (about 5-10 mm potential) and moderate south to southwest breezes in the 40 to 60 km/hr range. Lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

By MONDAY and TUESDAY the rain could become showery and somewhat colder air will try to push in at times perhaps dropping temperatures in parts of the north while having less effect on mild readings in the south.

Beyond that, high pressure may start swelling up over Britain and the North Sea region, with a mild southeast flow into Ireland, somewhat colder at times at night though, but this interval will be running up against a predicted energy peak around the 19th to 23rd where it could quickly turn rather stormy again, although at this distance the models are not picking up much of that signal yet. I think it will show up in forecasts within a few days, unless the energy splits and allows the high to control the weather longer, in which case I would not be surprised if it became colder in stages around Christmas.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with somewhat less bitter temperatures around -5 C, and no new snow. We have a rather thin covering but it is well established with the recent chilly temperatures.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 9 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 Dec 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal. The trend will be steadily upwards to Monday then slightly down towards normal.

-- Rainfalls will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

-- Sunshine will average near normal values.

-- Not as windy as recently, more frequently moderate and turning more southerly after Friday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, mild for a while around late morning and mid-day, then turning slightly colder as winds veer from southwest to northwest 40-70 km/hr. Highs 8 to 10 C. Temperatures falling off slowly this afternoon especially over western counties.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy, windy and cold with passing mixed wintry showers, winds west-northwest 40-70 km/hr. Lows 1 to 3 C.

FRIDAY will start out quite cold and windy with passing wintry showers, temperatures slow to recover at first, then somewhat milder by afternoon, temperatures continuing to rise in many areas into the evening hours when it may be closer to 8 C.

SATURDAY will bring occasional light rain and mist, rather mild with lows near 5 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

SUNDAY will be overcast with occasional light rain, mild and becoming windy by afternoon, southerly 40-70 km/hr. Lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C.

MONDAY will see the light rain becoming more drizzly, then gradual clearing, highs near 8 C.

Most of next week will be relatively mild but as high pressure builds up later in the week, nights could turn rather chilly with fog and some frosts. Highs most days around 7 to 10 C. There are signals for a much colder interval starting right around Christmas so that will be interesting to watch.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with a few brighter intervals during the afternoon, highs near -4 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 10 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 Dec 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg above normal despite today starting off rather cold.

-- Rainfalls will average 25 per cent of normal values.

-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal.

-- Wind speeds will be generally moderate at first, briefly strong later Sunday, then rather light for most of next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy and cold with passing mixed wintry showers. Winds northwest 40-70 km/hr and highs 5 to 7 C.

TONIGHT temperatures will remain steady with a tendency to rise slowly after midnight, with occasional light rain. Lows 5 to 7 C.

SATURDAY will be breezy and milder with a few intervals of light rain or drizzle across parts of the north, trending to partly cloudy further south. Highs 10 to 13 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and mild. It will turn very windy at times by late afternoon and evening, especially in parts of Connacht and west Ulster, where south to southwest winds of 70 to 110 km/hr are expected. Elsewhere this breezy interval will be more moderate, 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 5 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy with some early morning outbreaks of light rain, as winds gradually ease to southwest 30-50 km/hr. Somewhat colder with temperatures steady near 8 C.

TUESDAY will see a return to milder weather and occasional light rain, highs near 11 C.

After that weak frontal passage in some parts of the north and west, higher pressure will take over the weather for several days. It should stay rather mild although nights could be closer to freezing than during the breezy mild spell. Highs will remain around 10 C. Eventually the high will drift somewhat further west allowing colder air to seep in from the northeast. This could be quite gradual over the days leading up to Christmas, then it could start to turn quite cold as northerly winds develop. Details will remain sketchy for a while yet, and so far there are no indications of severe cold but it may not be all that far away by the holiday week.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with light snow but little accumulation, highs reaching about -3 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 11 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 Dec 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfall will range from 25-50 per cent of normal values in the north and west, to 10-25 per cent in the south and east.

-- Sunshine values will be near average or slightly above.

-- Rather windy at times late Sunday, otherwise most of this week will feature rather light winds for this time of year.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy and mild, with some persistent light rain in parts of the north (5-8 mm), more isolated showers further south, with brighter intervals developing. Highs 10 to 13 C.

TONIGHT will be misty with fog patches forming, lows 5 to 7 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with light winds at first, then a stronger southerly flow will develop. A rather small and fast-moving disturbance will race by Connacht and west Ulster late in the day, leading to a brief increase in wind speeds there to the 70-110 km/hr range. This will not affect most other counties or regions as much with only an increase to 40-60 km/hr likely. Highs 10 to 13 C.

SUNDAY NIGHT the strong winds should ease after midnight, with some light rain moving through parts of the north and west, lows near 6 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few intervals of light rain possible in the south and east, lows near 6 and highs near 9 C.

TUESDAY will be milder again with some rain at times in the west and north. There could be dense fog in the morning. Lows 3-6 C and highs 9-12 C.

From WEDNESDAY to the end of next week, the weather will be increasingly controlled by high pressure building up over Britain and parts of western Europe. This will lead to several days with light winds and the potential for dense fog to form, which could affect daytime temperatures, as nights will be rather cool in this settled interval. However, many places will manage to get enough air movement to allow mild temperatures to return for the daytime hours, so for most, the range will be about 1-4 C overnight lows to 7-10 C daytime highs. But in a few places it could be a bit colder than that if fog or low cloud persists. This high will eventually weaken and allow a more northeasterly flow to develop, but details are rather sketchy about whether or not this will lead to any large change in the temperature pattern, or perhaps just maintain it around normal values. There is some potential for it to turn considerably colder around the Christmas to New Year interval but this is not settled yet.

My local weather on Friday continued overcast and rather cold with a bit of light snow at times, no real accumulation, and temperatures near -5 C. Severe storms erupted over the central U.S. with a spring-like disturbance forming and dragging in some very warm and humid air from the Gulf of Mexico, which will be over the eastern states for part of the weekend, and will return after this system's cold front moves through and a second storm takes a similar path next week. Eventually temperatures could reach 20-24 C in parts of the eastern U.S. in a few days, but colder air will replace that eventually. The pattern is likely to remain rather cold over western Canada which is generally good for the recovery efforts after the severe flooding, although the cold, snow and ice formation are making some parts of that more challenging. It is probably better than having a lot more rain however.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 12 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 Dec 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfall will range from 25-50 per cent of normal values in the north and west, to 10-25 per cent in the south and east.

-- Sunshine values will be near average or slightly above.

-- Rather windy at times late today, otherwise most of this week will feature rather light winds for this time of year.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with light winds at first in the southeast, while elsewhere a stronger southerly flow will develop. Outbreaks of rain will be more persistent in the north and west where 5-10 mm is expected; trace to 3 mm amounts for the southeast. A rather small and fast-moving disturbance will race by west Munster this afternoon, then Connacht and west Ulster later in the day, leading to a steady increase in southerly winds this afternoon reaching a peak of about 70-110 km/hr range. This will not affect most other counties or regions as much with only an increase to 40-60 km/hr likely. Highs 10 to 13 C.

TONIGHT the strong winds in the northwest counties should ease rapidly after midnight, with further light rain moving through parts of the north and west, lows near 6 C. Other regions will have a partly cloudy and breezy night with lows 3-5 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few more intervals of light rain possible with highs near 9 C.

TUESDAY will be milder again with some rain at times in the west and north. There could be dense fog in the morning. Lows 3-6 C in the west, to about -1 C in parts of the east, and highs eventually reaching 9-12 C. Moderate southwest winds will disperse the fog during the morning to mid-day period.

WEDNESDAY will continue rather damp in parts of the north but high pressure building gradually over the south will lead to drier conditions there, with light winds, and variable cloud cover, perhaps including some persistent fog and low cloud. Lows 1-4 C and highs 7-10 C.

From THURSDAY to the weekend of 18th-19th, this high pressure area will settle in and keep an inversion over the south and east which could see frequent if not persistent fog and low cloud as a result. Hazy sunshine may break through but is more likely in the west which could remain milder especially near the Connacht coasts. Highs for most will be in the 6-9 C range during this settled interval, but could reach about 12 C on the Atlantic coasts. Overnight lows will be close to the freezing mark although rather variable in the range of -3 to +4 C.

This settled interval may persist longer but colder air will be trying to work its way west around the southern margins of the high, and this is far enough into the future that some uncertainty exists about trends towards the Christmas-New Years period; a colder spell could develop but it may be intermittent with some milder days at times too. At this point the trends look more certain for generally dry weather and a lack of strong winds, as the high will continue to shield Ireland from the weather systems developing over the western Atlantic.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast and rather damp after about 5 cm of snow in the morning hours; strong southerly winds set in and raised the temperature to about +1 C with a bit of sleet blowing around, with milder temperatures in local valleys (5-8 C). Severe storms ravaged parts of the east-central U.S. late Friday and the remnants of these moved through east coast regions late Saturday with less damaging results. Another very mild air mass is replacing that system's 18-20 C highs with even milder readings expected by Tuesday-Wednesday in central and eastern parts of the U.S.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 13 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 Dec 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal (likely to be relatively milder in the west)

-- Rainfall will average less than 10 per cent of normal values, and could be zero in some central counties.

-- Sunshine will average near normal values.

-- Winds will continue to decrease until becoming almost calm later this week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather cloudy, the best chance for any sunshine likely to be in the northwest. Some light rain or drizzle will spread into parts of the southeast but amounts are expected to be only 1-3 mm. Highs around 9 C.

TONIGHT will become clear in some areas and this may lead to dense fog forming, with a slight frost possible, so that driving conditions by morning in some parts of the central inland counties could be rather hazardous. Lows -2 to +3 C.

TUESDAY will see rather persistent fog or mist at first, then some brighter intervals will develop, with a rather slack gradient over most of the country, although moderate southerly winds will develop near Atlantic coasts where highs could reach 11 C, elsewhere probably in the 7-9 C range.

WEDNESDAY the north could see some low cloud, mist and drizzle at times, while the south and most central counties will likely be dry with some breaks in the overcast, lows 1-4 C and highs 7-10 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be dominated by high pressure over the region, and could see some persistent fog as a result. Some coastal areas will likely clear to mild sunny intervals. Lows both days around 1 to 4 C, and highs 7 to 10 C although potentially 10-13 C wherever sun breaks through.

This rather stagnant weather pattern will persist for several days and current indications suggest that it could begin to turn colder in stages towards the Christmas holiday period, as the high gets just far enough to the north and west to permit a colder easterly breeze to set in. This may have rather limited effects on western counties but it may turn several degrees colder in the east.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and cold with highs around -4 C. This evening was quite clear and I could see Venus low in the southwest, with Jupiter higher up in the south, and Saturn about midway between them (although quite a bit fainter). There was a half moon following in the parade.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 14 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

Aargh, the post I created yesterday was still showing up as "ready to post" -- this happened once before in the early autumn -- either it's some glitch with my internet connection or some problem with Boards software. My apologies. Most people probably know that the forecast is cross-posted onto facebook (IWO) where despite their many sins and omissions, they have good software. I can see the posts almost instantly. Like we could here back in the past.

TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 Dec 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values except in some parts of the southeast which could remain rather cold later in the week due to the slack wind gradients.

-- Rainfall will be near zero for most places.

-- Sunshine will be dependent on low cloud or fog dispersing, there could be quite good sunshine totals in parts of the west, and cloudy skies more frequently further east.

-- Within about two days there will cease to be much if any wind in most places as high pressure begins to dominate.

FORECASTS

TODAY will remain rather cloudy in many areas, but the sun could break through in a few spots. Temperatures will rise gradually except that the west and north coasts are likely to be quite mild, with highs 11 to 14 C. Other areas will do well to reach 10 C and some places could be as cold as 6-9 C.

TONIGHT will have widespread low cloud and mist with some dense fog possible after midnight. Lows -2 to +4 C. A few places that stay cloudy could remain milder than that, however.

From WEDNESDAY through the weekend and into next week, the weather pattern will likely stall out with high pressure very close to the Irish Sea and east Ulster. Different guidance has slightly different trends during this long interval of settled weather but each day is likely to be similar, but perhaps 1 or 2 degrees colder as we go forward. Some guidance brings in quite cold east winds by about the 24th. Other sources say that won't happen but somewhat colder air will seep in under the stagnant high, then it will be slowly replaced by milder air around Christmas, so we'll have to wait and see which model has the best handle on this; stagnant high pressure is difficult for forecasting models and therefore for forecasters who use them.

My local weather was overcast with occasional light snow by afternoon and evening, and highs close to the freezing point. Very mild air has moved into the central plains states and is heading east, record high temperatures are expected mid-week, then a gradual colder trend.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 15 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 Dec 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg above normal; the trend will be slowly down towards near normal or possibly slightly below, but this may take longer to complete in western counties.

-- Rainfall will be almost entirely absent, a few coastal areas could pick up some very light amounts not exceeding 5 per cent of normal.

-- Sunshine will be variable, but could exceed normal values in some coastal areas.

-- Winds will be falling off even more than they have already, and several days ahead could be just about calm, not very good news for utilities trying to harness wind energy.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, but some coastal locations could see longer sunny intervals. Winds will be moderate southerly near coasts but rather light and sometimes variable inland. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will see some mist and low cloud developing, lows could be in a wide range depending on how many hours of clear skies are experienced, but the average will probably be close to 5 C.

From THURSDAY to about the middle of next week, high pressure will be almost overhead, and particularly strong from Friday to about Monday or so. This will lead to frequent fog at night, mist or low cloud in the daytime hours sometimes breaking to hazy sunshine, and temperatures dependent on whether skies are clear or not, so could vary considerably from one location to another, with the probability that western coastal areas will be milder, and the inland southeast could be colder than most places. High temperatures will be slowly dropping off during this period from near 10 C to around 5 or 6 C, and overnight lows could also drop, with some frosts possible eventually.

Guidance is rather divided now about what happens around Christmas, whether the high just weakens and allows some milder southwest flow back in, or (perhaps more likely) whether colder air manages to find a way through a rather slack and disorganized regime to drop temperatures a few degrees further into the wintry cold realm where highs are only around 3-5 C and overnight lows several degrees below freezing. These changes should remain largely devoid of active weather but there would be a very slight risk of snow developing if it were to turn that cold. Some guidance earlier today was showing a completely dry outcome right to the end of the month, and that would be almost unprecedented at this time of year.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with several bursts of snowfall that accumulated to about 5 cms by evening; it is starting to clear now as the disturbance moves by to our southeast. A strong low is forming near the Wyoming-Nebraska border and this will move to north of Lake Superior, dragging up some very warm air from Texas where it already reached 27 C on Tuesday; some places in the central states will likely have record highs today near 25 C and this will move over to the east coast where it's already pleasantly mild, to give them some record warmth on Thursday. After that, the pattern over North America starts to change slowly to a more active wintry looking compressed jet stream with the warmth increasingly suppressed into the southeastern states within the week.

I will try to be a little more specific about Christmas eve and Day weather prospects tomorrow, at the moment it's a case of seeing a wide variety of possible outcomes after this dry spell if in fact it does end around then, it could drag on for several more days. Storms coming out of eastern North America late in the month will probably have the effect of reactivating the jet stream and clearing this block away, unless the energy is forced to go south of a persistent block; that could lead to a more active wintry sort of outcome.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 16 December, 2021 ____ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue similar to previous days, gradually falling temperatures will average near normal through the period, mostly dry with small amounts of drizzly precipitation near some coasts, some sunshine at times but a lot of cloud in the mix, and very light winds.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and spotty drizzle near some coasts. Nearly calm conditions, some lingering mist and fog. Highs around 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy for a time then mist and fog will become rather widespread, lows 4 to 7 C.

FRIDAY will be overcast with some brighter spells, and highs 9 to 12 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY will likely be similar to these next two days as well, possibly a degree or two colder in places.

By MONDAY and TUESDAY it will turn rather cold with a few isolated sleety showers, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

Around WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY of next week, guidance splits into two rather different camps, one group saying that the rather chilly air mass will slowly saturate with fog, mist and drizzle and temperatures near 6 or 7 C, the other saying that a push of colder air from the east will arrive in stages, perhaps keeping it drier but a bit colder. Then by about Christmas Eve and Day (which is a week from Friday-Saturday) the milder camp would have some light rain at times and temperatures staying close to 7 C. The colder forecast solutions bring in even more cold air and it could be frosty with local snow flurries in east winds if this is correct. Quite possible that the actual outcome is a blend, which would be quite cold with sleety mixed showers in some places. So I can't really pick a definitive forecast from this mixture but it seems safe to say that the holiday period might be colder than most of this month has been, to what extent remains an open question.

My local weather was overcast with a bit of sleety mixed precipitation in the morning that made local highways rather dangerous for travel. The temperature came up slightly to around -2 C. In the Midwest and central plains states, strong southwest winds developed with gusts in the 130-160 km/hr range, creating some blowing sand and dust in drier parts of the plains (mostly Colorado and Kansas) and a line squall developed which ripped through Kansas City, Omaha and Des Moines before losing energy. The storm is now more of a Minnesota blizzard with much colder winds wrapping around it, after record highs earlier (some places hit 25 C). This unseasonable warmth is spreading into the east and the cold front has stalled out to allow a heavy rainfall event to develop on Friday and Saturday from east Texas to the Ohio valley and inland northeast. This will mix with snow on its northern flanks. The east coast of the U.S. will see a return to more seasonable temperatures around the holiday week.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 17 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 Dec 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.

-- Rainfall will be slight until possibly the last day of this interval when some might begin to fall in the south and west, but even so the totals would not be much greater than 25% of the normal total for a week.

-- Sunshine will be rather infrequent but a few places will have better sunshine than most, probably closer to the west coast being more favoured.

-- Winds will continue very light but will begin to increase to the low end of the moderate range by the end of this interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals. Some patchy dense fog may develop around sunrise and persist for several hours, where skies have cleared temperatures have fallen as low as 2 deg C. This is rather hit or miss and anyone travelling should be aware that road conditions could change rapidly in some areas. By afternoon most places will be in the range of 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will once again bring some patchy clearing and the potential for dense fog patches to form there. Lows 2 to 6 C.

SATURDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and highs 7 to 10 C.

SUNDAY will be overcast with lows near 4 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and rather chilly with a slightly raw southeast breeze at times, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will bring a chance of rain as a weak frontal system moves slowly towards the southwestern counties. Moderate east to southeast winds will reach 30-50 km/hr adding some chill as temperatures are confined to the range of 4 to 8 C.

By FRIDAY (Christmas Eve) and SATURDAY (Christmas Day) there is some chance of a wintry mixture of rain, sleet and snow in bands across various parts of the country; the rain of course more likely in the south and southwest, the sleet in central counties, and snow in parts of the north. This is by no means a guaranteed outcome; it could turn colder more rapidly allowing snow flurries or intervals of light snow to move further south. Or the milder air could end up holding back this colder air altogether. It seems even more likely to turn cold around the 27th to 29th, with most of the guidance showing the furthest southwestward push of cold air from Scandinavia (via Scotland) around then. Towards New Years the early indications would be for frontal boundary snow, sleet and rain to return from the southwest. Temperatures during this week from the 24th to 31st may be several degrees below normal but not necessarily below freezing, at least in most areas during the daytime hours. Highs of 2 to 5 C are indicated at present, with potential for lows to fall into the -5 to -2 C range (especially after Christmas Day). I hope that the models come to an even better consensus on this rather difficult forecast situation but it does seem quite likely that some wintry conditions will be in the overall mix of events.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with a period of snow in the morning topping up our slowly growing base of 10-15 cms, and temperatures turned colder by afternoon with some gusty northwest breezes at times, temperatures falling from about -4 C in the morning to -10 C now.

If you have any clear skies at night, you'll see a full moon (the exact timing is 0436h Sunday 19th).

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 18 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 Dec 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, with little difference from night to day.

-- Rainfalls will eventually begin to add up to perhaps half the normal amount; most of this will occur on 23rd and 24th.

-- Sunshine will be largely absent but a few places could do better than most with local clearing trends, most likely near the west coast.

-- Winds will gradually increase over the weekend but will then stay rather moderate to about the 24th, generally from the southeast.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with lows 3 to 6 C. There will be patchy fog and mist.

SUNDAY will be overcast with lows near 4 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and rather chilly with a slightly raw southeast breeze at times, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 6 to 9 C. Some light rain may fall in a few parts of west Munster at times, only 2-3 mm accumulations are expected.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will bring a chance of rain as a weak frontal system moves slowly towards the southwestern counties. Moderate east to southeast winds will reach 30-50 km/hr adding some chill as temperatures are confined to the range of 4 to 8 C. Rainfalls around 5-10 mm in parts of the south.

Looking at the Christmas Eve and Christmas Day forecast, we have the same range of possible outcomes that I mentioned yesterday. Low pressure will be pushing into parts of the south, and moderately cold air will be seeping in from the northeast. Different models assign slightly different outcomes to this clash, some want to bring the milder air into central regions and this would tend to give a cold sleety rain to most areas with some mixing to snow and sleet in the north. Other guidance keeps the low pressure closer to the south coast and this would place the mixed precipitation in central and even inland southern counties with a cold rain confined to the south coast, and some chance of accumulating snow in the north. We may not really get a clear indication how this is going to unfold until a lot closer to the 24th than we are today. Temperatures in the milder scenario would be in the range of 3 C north to 8 C south; in the colder outcome, more like 1 C to 5 C. There seems to be a greater chance of cold air totally winning out after the 25th, although the 26th might continue on in the same way as previous days before that colder air started to push south more forcefully. This is not necessarily a "deep freeze" but temperatures would likely be well down below average by the 27th, and current guidance seems to be in no hurry to remove the cold air once it does push in.

My local weather on Friday was sunny and briskly cold with a bit of blowing snow when the wind got up, highs only around -4 C. Snow has moved into coastal areas and we have a heavy snowfall warning for later today here. Expecting maybe 15 cm in the local area and 30 cm on nearby mountains. That should get the ski season well underway. Heavy rainfalls have moved out of Texas and into the Ohio valley, and this is starting to become a sleety mixture over higher parts of the inland northeast with snow predicted closer to the New England-Quebec border region.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 19 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 Dec 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values with a slow decrease towards the 25th but even then temperatures will be within 2 deg of average.

-- Rainfalls will gradually develop mid-week and may amount to 25-50 per cent of normal values by the 25th.

-- Sunshine will be quite infrequent and some places may remain cloudy throughout.

-- Winds will gradually increase to moderate southeast to east.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals possible, some lingering mist or fog especially over east-central counties. Highs 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast and rather chilly with mist or fog patches, lows 2 to 5 C.

MONDAY will be mostly cloudy with highs near 8 C. A southeast breeze will develop, 30-50 km/hr at times, giving a rather raw feel to the day.

TUESDAY will be overcast with some occasional drizzle or light rain across parts of Munster. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, and it may turn slightly milder in some southern counties as winds turn a bit more to the south. Lows around 3 C and highs 7 to 10 C. Occasional light rain for most areas, 2 to 5 mm potential.

THURSDAY will continue partly to mostly cloudy with occasional light rain, 5 to 10 mm potential. Lows near 3 C and highs near 8 C.

FRIDAY (24th) will be mostly cloudy with moderate southeast to east winds, some rain at times, lows near 2 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

SATURDAY (25th) will continue overcast with outbreaks of sleety light rain and some chance of snow on hills, winds east to northeast 30-50 km/hr, lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C.

From the 26th to the 28th, colder air will settle in gradually and some frosts may develop at night, lows -4 to -1 C and highs 3-6 C. This spell may produce some local snowfalls but also a fair amount of dry weather is currently expected.

However, there is likely to be a frontal boundary located near the south coast at times so that wintry mixtures could develop during the colder spell. Its duration is quite uncertain at present, there are some indications of colder air becoming more widespread towards New Years, but this is still quite uncertain.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast and cold with light snow most of the day, giving a few centimetres of accumulation but it was coming down at quite a leisurely pace, mixing at times with a bit of freezing drizzle. Temperatures were around -2 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 20 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

Blog format today, and trends will be set aside for a day or two because the main story in the weather is that each global model has a different take on how things evolve beyond Thursday 23rd.

We can be reasonably sure that the current bland but somewhat chilly regime will give way to stronger winds and some rainfall at times mid-week. Today will continue cloudy with some sunny breaks near the Atlantic coasts, and cool with highs near 7 C. Tonight will be overcast with lows around 2 to 4 C. Tuesday will become somewhat breezier and light rain could spread into parts of west Munster while most other places remain fairly dry with patchy mist or drizzle. Highs once again near 7 C. By Wednesday a milder air mass will be trying to push north and this will bring temperatures up a few degrees, with some outbreaks of light rain but also some partly cloudy intervals. Highs could reach 10 C.

By Thursday, the battle of air masses begins, with each source of guidance coming to different conclusions about what happens through the Christmas holiday period. Winds seem likely to stay southerly for a time, then back to southeast or east with the gradual approach of low pressure. While Thursday could remain rather mild (8-10 C) with showers, Friday (24th) seems likely to turn at least slightly colder, with winds backing to easterly. A steady light rain or drizzle will spread north through parts of Munster and south Leinster; further north precipitation could take a more mixed wintry form by late 24th especially.

By Christmas Day we have a number of options presented by the forecast models. One idea is that colder air will push in rather quickly, do battle with the remnants of milder air near the south coast, and ultimately win out making the days from the 26th to New Years Eve all rather cold, but mostly dry. The battle scenario could mean intervals of rain turning to sleet and wet snow during Christmas Day with rather strong east winds at times, and falling temperatures (from perhaps 5 C to start, to 1-2 C later). The cold scenario would involve daytime readings of -1 to +4 C all week to New Years, and with some clearing, nights might produce sharp to severe frost. This is all mainly based on the U.S. forecast model (GFS).

However, another source (European model) shows the colder air losing the battle and mild air spreading slowly further north after just a slight cooling trend over the 25th, so that by the 27th a strong low forms in the Atlantic and brings strong or even severe wind gusts to parts of Ireland. This is not just a difference of degrees, it's almost a different forecast entirely. Then other sources have more intermediate solutions where the cold air has a bit longer to rule, but milder air returns, although without the dramatic increase in winds, just a steady moderate south to southwest flow.

Which is right? I don't have a very strong hunch about which of these outcomes to back, so I will just let you know how this difference of opinion goes from day to day until (as is usually the case in these divergent situations) consensus arrives. I suppose if you're a winter weather enthusiast you might be hoping the U.S. solution works out, if you don't want cold or snow but have travel plans just after Christmas then you might consider that the colder solution in this case actually looks less disruptive since it would be a largely dry cold with only minor snowfall potential.

Hoping that this consensus begins to emerge later today and that my next forecast message can give a more definite outlook. For now, it's a case of wait and see, although the first few days seem fairly well defined already.

My local weather on Sunday was quite cold and had some intervals of wintry sun but also some dense fog at times (ice fog) with temperatures staying well down around -7 C. Clear and cold out now with a bright full moon almost overhead.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 21 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 Dec 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, turning a bit milder for Thursday and (in the south) Friday, then turning colder than average for several days from north to south.

-- Rainfalls will be near normal values in some parts of the south and west, but otherwise will remain rather low in the 25-50 per cent of normal range.

-- Sunshine will perhaps reach normal values as those are quite low anyway (about 1.5 hours a day).

-- Winds will freshen somewhat to moderate southeast, then moderate east to northeast by 25th.

FORECASTS

(Just an overview, the model consensus remains a bit patchy but I have formed my own idea of consensus so we'll go with that under the caveat that all temperatures beyond Thursday could be 2-3 deg on either side if my reading of the consensus is not correct, but I am going about middle of a scattered pack so it can't be more than 50% out anyway ...)

TODAY will be mostly cloudy again with just a slight increase in the light wind speeds, and highs 6 to 9 C. Patchy light rain or drizzle may break out near the southwest coast.

TONIGHT will be overcast with rain spreading into the southwest mostly towards morning, lows 4 to 6 C. It could stay as cold as 2-4 C in parts of the north.

WEDNESDAY will be overcast with a few breaks, and rain may become rather persistent and heavy in west Munster and later in parts of Connacht, while remaining more showery elsewhere. Amounts of 15-30 mm are possible in the south and west, 5-10 mm more likely in the rest of the country. Milder with highs 9 to 12 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with showers more isolated, and some pleasant mild sunshine is quite possible as a gap between fronts combines with a mild southerly flow. Lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C south, 8 C north.

FRIDAY 24th will turn a bit colder with east winds developing, some rain at times, could turn sleety late in the day on higher ground in the north. Temperatures steady 5 to 8 C then falling slowly overnight (Christmas Eve).

SATURDAY 25th will gradually turn colder as winds turn east then northeast. It may be mild enough for rain at times in the south and a sleety mix of rain and snow could develop in Ulster and spread somewhat further south. Temperatures will be in the range of 5 to 7 C south, 3 to 5 C north. Winds easterly 40-60 km/hr and possibly stronger at times, becoming northeast by Christmas night into early 26th.

SUNDAY 26th will be rather cold with partly cloudy skies and isolated mixed wintry showers, lows near -2 C and highs near 5 C.

MONDAY 27th is likely to be the coldest day with some wintry sunshine at times, isolated wintry showers, lows near -4 C and highs near 3 C.

By TUESDAY 28th a milder southeast flow will begin and according to some guidance this will rapidly spread north, but details are sketchy, so we'll just go with cloudy and near 7 C for now, rain by late in the day.

The most probable scenario for 29th to 31st and into New Years Day is for unsettled and fairly mild conditions, but this could change if the cold spell I mentioned earlier proves stronger than some guidance expects. So for now we would be best to leave the forecast for that distant period in the "speculation" category (or up in the air perhaps).

My local weather was cloudy but bright with the sun visible at times through two different cloud layers (and there was also a third layer appearing as fog or stratus over lower elevations to our south and southeast). It was quite cold, around -5 C. But we are expecting severe cold to develop here around Christmas with snow and blowing snow followed by clear and frigid conditions; it could be as cold as -25 or -30 around here and -10 C at the coast which is unusual for them. Some locally heavy snow may develop where strong outflow winds have to cross open water (such as southeast portions of Vancouver Island). Heavy snow could fall on the mainland too if some of the weak frontal systems shown get any moisture to work with in this cold air mass. We're not planning any travel so will just have to tough it out at home. This cold air mass is gradually taking over large parts of North America forcing the storm tracks to the southern states and off the east coast for the time being.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 22 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

Most of the guidance has taken a milder turn in the past day, although there is still some spread and faint signs remaining for any colder temperatures around the 26th-27th. The forecast continues to take a weighted average of all guidance available but you'll notice that has added a couple of degrees from yesterday's version.

TODAY will see outbreaks of rain, rather heavy at times in western counties where 15-30 mm could fall. Amounts of 5-15 mm more likely elsewhere. Moderate to strong southeast winds 50-80 km/hr, and some partly cloudy intervals where the rain stops falling for brief interludes. Milder with highs in the range of 10-13 C.

TONIGHT will be mild with occasional rain becoming drizzly then turning foggy in many areas, with winds easing slowly, lows 5-8 C.

THURSDAY will continue mild with partly cloudy skies, isolated outbreaks of light rain, and moderate south to southeast winds. Highs 9 to 11 C.

FRIDAY (24th) will be relatively mild also as winds slowly turn more easterly, with occasional light rain, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY (25th) is likely to be overcast with occasional rain, which could become sleety in some northern areas (about a one in three chance of this), somewhat colder with temperatures steady from early morning through the day around 5 or 6 C (south near 9 C, north near 4 C).

SUNDAY (26th) is still the most uncertain day of the stretch with some lingering indications of low pressure moving by to the south which could produce some wintry mixing, but also more guidance now coming around to a solution where mild air surrounds these southern lows anyway so that the northeast winds are not much colder than the previous south to southeast winds had been. The average of all suggestions would be for occasional light rain and some partly cloudy dry intervals, highs near 6 C. But there's a fairly large spread in the guidance on that.

From about the 27th on, milder air looks set to make a return and some guidance goes to the extreme on that with record high temperature potential suggested on at least one model. Here again, this is not a guaranteed outcome, but it could happen if the south to southwest winds draw up subtropical air into the region, and temperatures could be anywhere from 8 to 15 C depending on how strong that draw becomes.

The mild spell looks likely to persist into New Years Day and a bit beyond before there's another slightly cooler turn.

I should emphasize that given the volatility of the forecast model performance over the past three or four days, it would not be entirely unexpected if we got a much different picture of some of these details, such is the nature of the beast with models struggling to balance out several rather unusual developments.

My local weather was partly to mostly cloudy and cold with a high near -5 C. We are still under the gun for near blizzard conditions developing around the Christmas-Boxing Day (as it is known here) period, and a severe cold spell. This air mass is just starting to take shape up around the Alaska-Yukon region now and will slowly move south to overspread almost all of western Canada and the northern states as far east as Minnesota. A less severe extension of the cold will spread further south and east. Meanwhile Florida is being hit by a weather system that is close to being a tropical storm although not being classified as one. That is moving up to the northeast and will bring some light snow to parts of New England by late tomorrow when it pulls in a weak low moving out of the northern plains towards the Great Lakes.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 23 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 Dec 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal values. It will turn slightly cooler to near normal from 24th to 26th then it will become very mild, at about 4 to 6 deg above normal, so the average will be the 1 to 3 as mentioned.

-- Rainfalls will be near average for many but could fall a bit short of normal in parts of the east.

-- Sunshine will be about 25 per cent above normal, as a fairly sunny day is expected today and that alone will make up much of a weekly normal amount at this often overcast time of year. After today sunshine amounts will likely be closer to average.

-- Winds will remain fairly moderate and often from a southerly direction.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become partly cloudy to sunny at times, with moderate southerly breezes and highs 9 to 13 C.

TONIGHT will see some increase in cloud and rain near the south coast. Lows will be 3 to 6 C north, 5 to 8 C south.

FRIDAY (24th) will be partly to mostly cloudy with occasional rain, highs 8 to 11 C.

SATURDAY (25th) will have variable amounts of cloud, and some rain at times, with lows 3 to 7 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

SUNDAY (26th) will likely remain similar with cloud and outbreaks of rain, lows 2 to 6 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

MONDAY (27th) will begin to turn milder again from the south, with highs reaching 11 to 13 C there, probably taking another day for this to reach all northern areas, with outbreaks of light rain developing. By TUESDAY 28th it will be quite mild with variable amounts of cloud and south to southwest winds. Highs 10 to 14 C.

The trend from 29th on into the new year is similar, mild spells separated by more average intervals, and the promising cold outbreaks seem to have just lost their energy and are being held back in northern, central and eastern Europe for the time being. It seems inevitable that there will be a stronger push of cold air eventually, but not for a while yet apparently.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast and cold with occasional light snow giving about 2-3 cms of fresh powder; we have roughly 15-20 cm snow cover generally in the region now, and waiting for the arrival of much colder air in a few days with some near-blizzard conditions at times.

I will probably be able to post some updates through the Christmas holiday although with this rather bland, mild weather it may not be all that urgent, as it should be relatively easy to get around or do whatever you have planned. We're a bit more at the mercy of the elements here at this point.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 24 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Dec 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 3 deg above normal, despite the first half of this weekly interval being closer to average than that, the second half will see temperatures well above normal.

-- Rainfalls will be generally close to average, could be a bit heavier in the southeast than most other regions.

-- Sunshine will also be fairly close to average with small amounts of sunshine expected most days (the normal amount is barely 1.5 hours a day).

-- Moderate southeast winds much of the time may become more southwesterly as it warms up.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, and there will be several hours of showery rainfall moving slowly northwards, followed by variable cloudiness. The rainfalls will be mostly in the 5-10 mm range. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast and mild with more rain developing gradually across Munster, probably arriving about daybreak further north. Lows 4 to 7 C.

SATURDAY (Christmas Day) will be mostly cloudy with moderate southeast winds and intervals of rain. Some central counties could see rather heavy downpours of 20-30 mm, other counties will be closer to 10-15 mm. Highs 7-10 C with coolest readings mostly confined to east Ulster and north Leinster.

SUNDAY (St Stephens Day) will also be rather cloudy with a few further outbreaks of showery light rain, southeast breezes, and lows near 6 C, highs near 9 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will see a gradual warming trend and temperatures could begin to surge past 12 C into near-record territory at times, 14-15 C not out of the question. Some rain will accompany this but there will also be intervals of partly cloudy skies.

By about WEDNESDAY there may be a slight cooling trend but another surge of mild air will follow quickly, after highs near 10 C on Wednesday it could be back up around 12-14 C by the last two days of the year. Another weak cold front is indicated for around New Years' Day. This pattern looks like it will persist but gradually become more intense and there could be some rather strong wind storms by the second week of January with the flow still southwesterly and fairly mild.

The problem for cold air moving into Europe is that a lot of the momentum of arctic air is currently across the pole in western North America. As long as that strong signal remains in place, connected to deep cold in eastern Siberia, it stands to reason that not all parts of the northern hemisphere can get cold at the same time so Europe, the Atlantic sector and eastern North America will probably stay rather mild until these cold regimes get cut off from source and begin to moderate. This leads me to think now that mid to late January might do better for cold in western Europe.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast, cold with light snow accumulating a further 5-10 cm. Temperatures were steady around -7 C. The frigid air mass is developing up north and will probably start moving in here gradually over two or three days, with a couple of periods of heavier snow that may make it almost blizzard-like as winds here will be strong easterly at times.

I will continue to post updates but as there isn't much active weather quite a few readers might be away from this thread for the rest of the holidays, so I'll say

______ _____ ____ Best wishes to all for a happy Christmas and New Years ____ _____ ______

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 25 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain as discussed yesterday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become windy and a band of heavy rain showers will make slow progress north from its current location, heaviest in the southeast but extending through the midlands to Connacht. Areas to the southwest of that will have variable amounts of cloud, further showers and mild afternoon highs of 10-12 C. The rainfall band will reach Ulster by this evening, and will produce generally 15-25 mm of rain as it moves north. Temperatures in the rain will be around 8 C. For a time ahead of this rainfall band it will be quite cold and windy in north Leinster and east Ulster as southeast winds reach 50-80 km/hr. These winds will ease during the rainfall and after it passes winds become more southerly.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy and misty in places with lows 4-7 C.

SUNDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with a few isolated showers, highs 8 to 10 C.

MONDAY a low passing to the south of Cork towards the Channel region will brush some south coast districts with light rain at times. Further north, after a rather cold start, the day will turn slowly milder with variable amounts of cloud and an outbreak of rain likely from the west towards evening. Lows -1 to +3 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

TUESDAY will become quite mild with rain at times (5-10 mm) and highs 10-12 C.

WEDNESDAY will be very breezy to windy and very mild. Winds will increase to southwest 70-110 km/hr and even higher gusts are possible near Atlantic coasts. Highs 12-15 C. Some rain will be moving through but there could also be brighter intervals, most likely in the inland south.

THURSDAY early morning will continue very windy with outbreaks of rain and squally showers then things will calm down gradually by mid-day and there won't be much if any drop in temperature as the next disturbance lifts the front back north during the afternoon, so temperatures will likely stay in the 10-13 C range.

FRIDAY (New Year's Eve) will be another quite mild day with occasional rain, lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.

SATURDAY (1st of Jan 2022) could be slightly cooler with rain clearing east, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.

The pattern beyond that still looks generally mild but increasingly unsettled with prospect of some very strong winds at times.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with occasional snow and temperatures steady near -4 C. The super-cold air is just north of us now but the way things are going it might snow all day and into the 26th too before actually turning colder, there isn't a very strong southward push now that the cold air has approached the 50th parallel (we are closer to 49 which is the border). Coastal areas got some snow and freezing rain and expect a bit more of that before the coldest air reaches them towards mid-day Sunday. Eastern North America is generally rather mild and will stay that way to about the first week of January now.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 26 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

Just a brief update as the forecast follows yesterday's plan with a few details changed along the way. It will be quite mild and rather wet in the next week or so, but the sun will be out at times so probably little different from average in that regard. Compared to most of the past two weeks it will be rather windy at times.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with a few isolated showers, more frequent near Atlantic coasts, where 2-5 mm could fall during the day. Winds southerly 40-60 km/hr with highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT will bring some clearing and lighter winds, which could lead to a slight frost and a few isolated patches of icy roads by morning (north central counties most likely at risk). Lows -1 to +4 C.

MONDAY a low passing to the south of Cork towards the Channel region will produce outbreaks of light rain in the south, which may migrate a bit further north during the mid-day and afternoon hours but amounts will be slight (1-3 mm). Further north, after a rather cold start, the day will turn slowly milder with variable amounts of cloud and an outbreak of rain likely from the west towards evening. Highs 7 to 10 C, possibly 5 to 7 C in parts of Ulster.

TUESDAY will become quite mild with rain at times (5-10 mm) and highs 10-12 C.

WEDNESDAY will be very breezy to windy and very mild. Winds will increase to southwest 70-110 km/hr and even higher gusts are possible near Atlantic coasts. Highs 12-15 C. Some rain will be moving through but there could also be brighter intervals, most likely in the inland south. Rainfalls of about 10-15 mm likely in the north and west, 5-10 mm south and east.

THURSDAY now looking like it may remain rather windy most of the day as a secondary low forms to continue the strong gradients, winds west-southwest 70-110 km/hr, with outbreaks of rain and squally showers; lows and highs in the range of 10 to 13 C.

FRIDAY (New Year's Eve) will be another quite mild day with occasional rain, lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.

SATURDAY (1st of Jan 2022) will remain mild and unsettled, with rain gradually clearing to the east by late in the day, lows 5-8 C and highs 10-13 C.

SUNDAY (2nd Jan) will be partly to mostly cloudy with showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

The rather mild pattern will continue with the possibility of stronger disturbances forming in a rather constant west-southwest flow. Eventually there could be some "orange alert" type wind events in this pattern, with colder air generally held off well to the north as the Atlantic scours away what is left of the current cold air over the continent. In eastern Asia there is a rather widespread outbreak of cold into most parts of China so this is where the Siberian cold air is heading for the time being, as well as linking up with a second source region in the northern parts of Canada and Alaska. That cold is mainly held in place over western Canada for a week to ten days with the storm track running from near the California-Mexico border to the southern plains states and over New England into the Atlantic. As long as this broad pattern shows little variation, a mild and unsettled pattern is very likely to persist over Ireland and nearby countries.

My local weather on Christmas Day was more or less a perfect snowglobe sort of look, with light to sometimes moderate snow coming down gently with light winds. The very cold air is being held back locally by a low just south of the border, in fact it's colder in Seattle and Vancouver right now than it is here which is quite unusual in the winter. The cold air makes it a little further south to our west as the coastal low supporting the inland low weakens, but heavy snow bands have formed near frontal boundaries. We had about 8 cms of snow during the day here and temperatures steady near -3 C. About 100 kms north and west of here it was -8 C all day and over the Rockies in Alberta around -25 to -30 C. Some places in the Northwest Territories are currently sitting at -50 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 27 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

Forecast continues fairly similar to last report, the extent and duration of strong winds for late Wednesday into Thursday has been downgraded but otherwise most other elements of the forecast remain in place ...

TODAY a low passing to the south of Cork towards the Channel region will produce outbreaks of light rain in the south, which may migrate a bit further north during the mid-day and afternoon hours but amounts will be slight (1-3 mm). Further north, after a rather cold and foggy start, the day will turn slowly milder with variable amounts of cloud and an outbreak of rain likely from the west towards evening. Highs 7 to 10 C, possibly 5 to 7 C in parts of Ulster.

TONIGHT will bring intervals of rain with 5-10 mm expected in most areas, temperatures steady from today's highs (near 6 C north to 10 C south). Fog may return if it manages to clear at all, over portions of the north and inland central counties.

TUESDAY will become quite mild with further rain at times (another 5-10 mm in some places) and highs 10-12 C.

WEDNESDAY will be very breezy to windy and very mild. Winds will gradually increase by late in the day to southwest 70-110 km/hr in parts of the north, closer to 50-70 km/hr for most other places, with highs 12-15 C. Some rain will be moving through but there could also be brighter intervals, most likely in the inland south. Rainfalls of about 10-15 mm likely in the north and west, 5-10 mm south and east.

THURSDAY the strong winds now expected to ease off to 40-60 km/hr westerly, and staying quite mild with a few outbreaks of rain and brief brighter intervals expected, with lows and highs in the range of 8 to 13 C.

FRIDAY (New Year's Eve) will be another quite mild day, dry at first, after morning lows near 5 C east, 8 C west, and highs 11 to 13 C. By the evening it will be rather windy (southerly 50-80 km/hr). Rain will spread in during the overnight into New Year's Day.

SATURDAY (1st of Jan 2022) will remain mild and unsettled, with rain gradually clearing to the east by late in the day, lows 5-8 C and highs 10-13 C.

SUNDAY (2nd Jan) will be partly to mostly cloudy with showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

Another bout of wind and rain is expected for the 3rd-4th of January, and there is potential for this system to become a strong wind or heavy rain producer but those details are not a forecast model consensus at this point. Somewhat colder air masses will be making an appearance by the second week of January.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with a further 5-8 cm snowfall and slowly falling temperatures which were near -6 C at mid-day and have now reached -15 C. It felt bitterly cold outside during my brief excursion to do a bit of snow clearing. On the other side of a developing storm in the Wyoming-Colorado region, there are record high temperatures in Texas and Oklahoma, in fact one or two places hit 30 C and broke not just daily but even monthly records on Sunday. It's not that warm further east but milder than average along the east coast of the U.S. (10-15 C).

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 28 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 28 Dec 2021 to 3 Jan 2022 --

-- Temperatures will be very mild, average around 5 deg above normal.

-- Rainfalls will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal values.

-- Sunshine will be near normal or slightly above as there will be some breaks between frontal systems, mostly during daylight hours to give the sun frequent opportunities to make short appearances.

-- Winds will be generally moderate southwesterly and occasionally a bit stronger although at this point no strong winds are foreseen.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy and will become partly cloudy by later this morning after the last of the morning rain pulls away to the east. Some sunshine may develop before clouds begin to increase and thicken towards sunset. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT will become wet and foggy in places, with 10-20 mm rainfalls expected, lasting into the morning hours. Lows 7 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY will become very mild as rain moves through Ulster where 15-30 mm could fall, elsewhere the rain will let up around late morning and skies may brighten with southwest winds 50-80 km/hr at times. Highs 12 to 15 C.

THURSDAY will bring further outbreaks of rain and a moderate southwest wind, lows near 9 C and highs near 13 C.

FRIDAY (New Year's Eve) will be breezy to windy later in the day, and mild with some rain to start, clearing for a time mid-day, and further rain expected during the overnight hours in the west. Lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

SATURDAY (New Year's Day) will be windy and mild with occasional rain, winds south to southwest 60-90 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C. About 10 mm of rain is expected with this frontal system.

From SUNDAY 2nd to about TUESDAY 4th it will be slightly cooler with westerly winds, and highs 7 to 10 C. There may be some intervals of light rain during this period. Another milder turn is expected around the 5th-6th of January after which a more variable temperature trend is expected with colder air masses at least making some effort to join the action, not dominant but perhaps more of a variable pattern for a time.

My local weather turned very cold as skies cleared partially and temperatures were stuck at about -17 C with little change from night to daytime, rather cloudy at present so that even colder readings may take a while to develop, but not too far north of here it is closer to -25 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 29 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar to yesterday's outline, very mild, rather wet, some sun at times and rather windy although staying mostly in the moderate range.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy to windy and very mild. Skies will become partly cloudy as the last of the morning rain moves through east Ulster. Winds southwest 50-80 km/hr may gust as high as 110 km/hr near some exposed Atlantic coasts. Highs 14-16 C could set some records too.

TONIGHT rain will return and become rather heavy at times in the west, winds continuing moderate southwest, lows about 10 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with occasional rain, becoming heavy overnight in some western counties where 30-50 mm may fall by Friday morning. Other regions will receive 10-20 mm rainfalls. Rather windy at times with the overnight rainfalls (early Friday southerly 50-80 km/hr in places). Highs around 12 or 13 C.

FRIDAY will clear from the southwest in the morning hours and there could be some bright and rather mild spells in the afternoon, winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr but increasing during the overnight (New Year's Eve) as heavy rain develops and moves in from the west. Morning lows near 7 C and afternoon highs 13-15 C.

SATURDAY (New Year's Day) will be windy and mild with rain heavy during the morning tapering to showers later with some partial clearing by late afternoon in western counties. Winds southwest 60-90 km/hr but some higher gusts possible. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

SUNDAY will produce intervals of rain and it will turn gradually colder with temperatures falling from morning readings of 7-9 C to late afternoon temperatures near 4 or 5 C.

MONDAY will be breezy and rather cold by comparison to this week, with passing showers, some with hail, and temperatures steady around 5-6 C.

The forecast models are toying with another cold outbreak that may not last very long even if it happens at all, but Tuesday 4th is the one day where a bit of wintry mixture could fall, with clearing from the north. This would be followed by a day or two of cool but dry weather under high pressure, then a return to somewhat milder conditions although the models are now losing some of their emphasis on continued warmth and going more into a modified cold west to northwest flow, still off the Atlantic but having a source further north than the current balmy air masses. Once again, this all depends on model accuracy which has not been stellar in recent weeks (at this sort of time range especially).

My recent weather has been very cold with highs on Tuesday around -14 C and current readings near -20, under partly cloudy skies. A slight warming trend after today could lead back to more snowfall by the end of the week, month and year (it's all happening at the same time, more or less).

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 30 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain same as yesterday's report ...

FORECASTS also essentially similar.

TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks in the overcast in the east, and very mild, with outbreaks of rain, fairly light at first, then getting rather heavy overnight. Highs 13 to 15 C again.

TONIGHT will be very mild and wet especially in the west and north where 15-30 mm could fall. Lows 10-12 C and winds moderate south to southwest, occasionally a few stronger gusts possible.

FRIDAY will see this overnight rain and gusty winds moving on fairly rapidly to give way to a more tranquil regime around late morning and early afternoon, still very mild though, highs 13 to 15 C.

FRIDAY NIGHT (New Year's Eve) will stay very mild and become windy at times with outbreaks of rain moving gradually across the country but mostly after midnight in the east. Lows 8 to 11 C. Winds south to southwest 60-90 km/hr.

SATURDAY (New Year's Day) will be partly cloudy to overcast, breezy to windy, and temperatures steady around 10-12 C. Some light rain will continue from time to time. Winds southwest 50-80 km/hr.

SUNDAY will then become somewhat colder with rain at times, possibly a brief interval of heavier rain moving into the south and east, hopefully not quite a repeat of the Christmas Day flooding but we'll keep an eye on how this evolves. Temperatures steady around 7-9 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY look colder with northwest winds and passing showers, some of hail or even sleet in places. Highs 5-7 C.

A more settled day or two would likely follow as high pressure crests around mid-week then a more variable pattern develops where there might be some battles between mild Atlantic air masses and colder arctic air heading in from around Iceland. The way the models have handled past cold potential, I wouldn't want to oversell this but it does look promising to some extent (if you want colder air that is, not everyone does).

Or you could just move here where it's guaranteed, we have a nice frosty -23 C outside at the present time despite some encroaching cloud and light snow moving in from the northwest. About 5 cms expected through the day. Severe storms may hit some parts of the southeastern U.S. and it's a rather wet and chilly scenario further north but milder air will reach the northeastern states for New Years. A much colder pattern is evolving for central and eastern regions of North America and there's now some chance we might get out of this deep freeze by about the 10th of January rather than having a whole month of it.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 31 December, 2021 ____ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 31 Dec 2021 to 6 Jan 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal, however, after a very mild start there will be colder than average weather around Tues-Wed then it will return to mild again (although not as mild).

-- Rainfalls will average about 50-75 per cent of normal, Sunday-Monday appear to be the wettest days and after that rather dry.

-- Sunshine will average 25 per cent above average.

-- Winds will be moderate to strong most of the time, south to southwest until Monday then northwest to north for a couple of days before returning to southwesterly around Thursday 6th.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be very mild and with some sunny breaks it will be quite pleasant despite a rather brisk south to southwest wind 50-80 km/hr. This wind could ease off briefly before resuming with renewed vigour by this evening. Highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT (New Year's Eve) will be windy and very mild with occasional rain, sometimes rather blustery, lows only around 12 C, with 5-10 mm of rain expected and winds south to southwest 70-110 km/hr.

SATURDAY (New Year's Day) will become slightly cooler during the mid-day and afternoon hours with southwest winds easing somewhat to 50-80 km/hr, occasional light rain, and temperatures slowly falling to around 7 C by late afternoon.

SUNDAY will be breezy to windy at times with occasional rain, possibly heavy in the afternoon and evening, with lows near 5 C and highs near 9 C. About 20 mm of rain is likely.

MONDAY will be breezy to windy and rather cold with passing squally showers, some with hail or thunder. Lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C.

TUESDAY will become much colder with sleety showers or mixed wintry precipitation at times, winds turning northerly 50-80 km/hr, lows near 1 C and highs 3-5 C.

WEDNESDAY will be cold at first but somewhat milder by afternoon, lows near -2 C and highs near 7 C. Winds will ease and there may be some bright sunny spells.

THURSDAY will be back to milder southwest winds with occasional light rain and highs near 10 C.

This milder spell may last about 2-3 days before waves of colder air arrive from the west to northwest, nothing too severe is indicated yet but temperatures could drop back to around 3-6 C.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast and cold with a high of -14 C. There was a slight amount of snow in the early morning but it stayed dry in the daytime. A heavier snow hit the Vancouver area where 15-20 cms was reported. A rather strong clash of air masses over eastern North America will lead to some heavy freezing rain in parts of the Ohio valley and inland northeast, rain for coastal cities and highs near 10 C, and very mild in the southeast with highs 20-25 C, potential for severe storms later and into New Year's Day. Much colder weather is due to set in over eastern regions in about a week's time.

Happy new year to all, let's hope that 2022 is the new 2019.

Larbre34

And a happy new year to you also MTC, thanks for your diligent and thorough forecasting and weather insight throughout the year. Have a safe 2022.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 1st of January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

Brief update as new years approaches here, very mild to start the day with a slow downward trend in temperatures, and a few outbreaks of light rain likely, but also some dry intervals and even a bit of sunshine at times with temperatures slowly falling from near 14 C to around 7-10 C later afternoon. Tonight will be breezy and still fairly mild with lows 4-7 C, occasional rain likely. Moderate to strong southwest winds will ease somewhat by afternoon. Sunday will be less windy although quite breezy with passing showers, and highs near 9 C.

By Monday colder air will be trickling in from the north but will be held back for much of the day by a developing low pressure area moving across the south. This will spread some rain into southern and central counties, as winds gradually turn more to the north. With slowly falling temperatures in the range of 3-6 C, the rain could become sleety by late in the day and some snow will probably fall on higher terrain, as colder air surges in behind this departing low. Winds will increase again to northerly 40-70 km/hr and temperatures will fall to about 1 C by the overnight hours into early Tuesday.

Tuesday will be breezy and cold with passing wintry showers possible, although many places will have a dry and partly cloudy day. The winds will back westerly overnight; it could be frosty in some parts of the inland south by Wednesday morning. Then milder air will return, making a brief appearance late Wednesday and for part of Thursday, with rain and temperatures near 8 C. It will rather quickly turn colder again after that and temperatures could be a few degrees below normal for the end of next week. Some indications in longer range modelling of wintry outbreaks by mid-month but this of course is tentative and could be one of those delayed responses that eventually shows up.

Clear and very cold here all day, highest temperatures about -17 C and currently close to -25 C. Looking forward to somewhat milder weather in about a week but it will stay very cold for another week at least, with further snowfalls in coastal areas. It was very mild in the eastern U.S. for New Year's Eve with readings close to 10 C.

Well I am stuck in 2021 for another 20 minutes then it's time to toast the new year which could be a slight improvement, we hope, or just a doorway to further troubles. I will stick to predicting the weather rather than the future of humanity, would be putting out a red alert if so.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 2 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 Jan 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, with a lot of variations from day to day. Tuesday and Thursday-Friday will be the colder portions of this interval.

-- Rainfalls will average near normal also, with perhaps 25-50 per cent above normal in a zone from west Munster into the midlands, and also in parts of Ulster.

-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal values (which are only around 2 hours a day in early January).

-- Winds will be moderate most of the time and occasionally strong. Directions will keep changing as different regimes come and go.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out partly cloudy or even sunny in some eastern locations, with a trend to increasing cloud and the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Some heavier showers and thunderstorms may develop from west Munster this morning then into the midlands by mid-day and afternoon. Rainfalls variable in the range of 5 to 20 mm. Highs near 10 C. Winds southwest 40-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with a few remnant showers, lows near 4 C.

MONDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud and a fairly dry scenario as one storm passes to the south (its rain probably missing all of the south coast) while a second low forms gradually over Donegal Bay and drops south along the west coast. This second low will eventually bring outbreaks of sleety rain turning to wet snow in some higher parts of the west Monday night. Highs on Monday near 7 C.

TUESDAY will turn quite cold once the sleet and snow have pushed further south, leaving a mainly dry and partly cloudy northerly flow with isolated wintry showers perhaps more frequent over Ulster and Connacht. Winds northerly 50-70 km/hr adding considerable chill to temperatures that will start out around -1 C and end up no higher than 5 C.

WEDNESDAY morning will be frosty especially in the inland south and parts of the midlands. Clouds will rapidly increase from the west. After a relatively calm morning winds will increase steadily and rain will arrive by evening, winds south to southwest 70-100 km/hr. Morning lows -4 to -1 C and afternoon highs 5 to 8 C, temperatures steady overnight.

THURSDAY will begin to turn very cold again after the overnight rain and winds will veer to westerly 70-110 km/hr. Temperatures will be falling slowly all day after starting out around 8 C. It will be around 0-2 C by evening. Showers of hail and snow may develop especially over higher terrain in the west.

FRIDAY will continue blustery and cold, with passing wintry showers in strong west to northwest winds. Lows near -2 C and highs 2-5 C east, 4-7 C west. By Friday night it will be turning a bit milder again with rain at times and temperatures rising to near 8 C in all regions.

SATURDAY once again this brief mild interval will be an overnight sensation and it will rapidly turn much colder again with very strong west to northwest winds 80-120 km/hr and wintry showers, temperatures falling to near -1 C by late in the day.

This highly variable pattern seems likely to continue and could eventually transition to something more permanently cold, but for about another week it will likely continue to swing back and forth from relatively mild intervals to quite cold days, with winds often quite strong and blustery.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with just a dusting of new snow, and temperatures held down around -14 C. Coastal areas are getting a nasty mix of snow, freezing rain and sleet but that storm is heading south rather than east so we won't get much from it here. Another wintry storm has developed near the Virginia coast and is rapidly heading up the east coast towards Nova Scotia, threatening to bring sleet and snow to inland portions of the northeastern U.S. later today and into Tuesday morning.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 3 January, 2022 ____ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar to what was posted yesterday, variable temperatures average near normal, fairly frequent wintry showers or cold rains with near normal totals expected, sunny a bit more often than usual at this time of year perhaps, and rather windy at times.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be relatively mild again with south to southwest winds and outbreaks of showery light rain becoming a steady downpour when low pressure tracks across Ireland from the northwest later this afternoon. Rainfalls of 10-15 mm likely. In the wake of this system, much colder air will quickly move in and the last hour or two of the rain at any given location could be sleety or mixing with melting snow (with accumulations on higher terrain). During the daylight period, only some counties of Connacht and west Ulster will be into that colder air and it could be snowing on hills in Mayo and north Roscommon by sunset with about 1-3 cm accumulations there. Highs generally around 10 C, temperatures dropping to 3-5 C in the wake of the approaching system. Winds south to southwest 40-70 km/hr, becoming north-northeast 50-80 km/hr in the wake of the low, strong gusts in onshore flows.

TONIGHT will see this mixed rain-snow weather moving steadily southeast followed by partial clearing, in northerly winds of 40-70 km/hr. Lows 1-3 C. Some coatings of snow possible around midnight to 0300h in higher inland locations of south Leinster and east Munster.

TUESDAY will start out partly cloudy to sunny with a brisk and cold north wind backing gradually to northwest 40-60 km/hr, then easing late in the day. Isolated bands of wintry showers may develop and move inland over parts of the north and west mainly. Dry for most though, highs 4-6 C.

TUESDAY NIGHT will be frosty inland with lows -4 to -1 C, some increase in cloud is likely in the north. Winds much lighter for a time.

WEDNESDAY will bring increasing cloud followed by strong winds and rain by the evening. Temperatures will rise slowly all day to reach 5-7 C in the afternoon and possibly 8-10 C for a brief interval overnight. Winds rather slack for the morning hours will increase to southerly 40-60 km/hr in the afternoon then 70-100 km/hr at night with 10-20 mm rainfalls and possible thunderstorms embedded.

THURSDAY this vigorous front will clear east during the late overnight to mid-morning time period and rain will ease off to isolated showers for a time, but then very cold air flowing in over the Atlantic will generate bands of wintry showers by late afternoon likely persisting most of the night. Some heavy falls of sleet, hail or even snow are possible locally from these bands, more likely of course on higher terrain in the west but cannot be ruled out anywhere as westerly winds of 70-110 km/hr will push these mixed and possibly thundery wintry showers across the country. Temperatures will continue to fall steadily all day to reach zero to 2 C by evening.

FRIDAY will continue windy and very cold with mixed wintry showers, but it will begin to moderate to milder southwest winds and occasional rain by evening. Lows near -1 C and highs 7-9 C by the evening hours although closer to 3-5 C at mid-day. Winds west backing to southwest 50-80 km/hr.

SATURDAY will repeat the pattern with early morning strong winds and squally showers, then colder air pushing in by mid-day turning showers wintry again. Highest temperatures around daybreak at 8-10 C, then falling to 2-4 C.

By SUNDAY a less blustery day with slowly moderating temperatures. Highs near 8 C.

At this point the guidance is showing a somewhat more settled mid-month interval with somewhat milder temperatures returning but I have to say confidence is quite low in anything past next weekend at this point.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with light snow (1-3 cm fell) and temperatures moderated slightly to -8 C. A fast-moving and relatively small-scale storm is racing up towards the northeastern U.S. but will only hit a few places with snow (mostly in the Chesapeake Bay area and southern NJ) before heading out to sea south of Long Island late today. Much colder air is slowly gaining more territory in central and eastern regions as the jet stream gradually drops further south there.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 4 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 Jan 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal or slightly below to 1.0 deg below average.

-- Rainfalls will be near normal generally.

-- Sunshine will be about 25 per cent above normal, despite a lot of cloud on some days.

-- Winds will be moderate to strong and often from the west.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to sunny in most areas, quite cold with a few passing wintry showers, these more frequent near Atlantic coasts. Highs around 4 to 6 C.

TONIGHT will be clear with just some patchy cloud mainly in northern counties. Frosty with lows -4 to -1 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring increasing cloud followed by strong winds and rain by the evening. Temperatures will rise slowly all day to reach 5-7 C in the afternoon and possibly 8-10 C for a brief interval overnight. Winds rather slack for the morning hours will increase to southerly 40-60 km/hr in the afternoon then 70-100 km/hr at night with 10-20 mm rainfalls and possible thunderstorms embedded.

THURSDAY this vigorous front will clear east during the late overnight to mid-morning time period and rain will ease off to isolated showers for a time, but then very cold air flowing in over the Atlantic will generate bands of wintry showers by late afternoon likely persisting most of the night. Some heavy falls of sleet, hail or even snow are possible locally from these bands, more likely of course on higher terrain in the west but cannot be ruled out anywhere as westerly winds of 70-110 km/hr will push these mixed and possibly thundery wintry showers across the country. Temperatures will continue to fall steadily all day to reach zero to 2 C by evening.

FRIDAY will continue windy and very cold with mixed wintry showers, but it will begin to moderate to milder southwest winds and occasional rain by evening. Lows near -1 C and highs 7-9 C by the evening hours although closer to 3-5 C at mid-day. Winds west backing to southwest 50-80 km/hr.

SATURDAY will repeat the pattern with early morning strong winds and squally showers, then colder air pushing in by mid-day turning showers wintry again. Highest temperatures around daybreak at 8-10 C, then falling to 2-4 C.

By SUNDAY a less blustery day with slowly moderating temperatures. Highs near 8 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY may turn somewhat more unsettled again with moderate winds and temperatures not far from normal values.

There continue to be vague signs of a colder turn after mid-month.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with heavy snow in the morning (about 30 cm fell) followed by just a few additional flurries in the afternoon, milder with highs near -4 C. Meanwhile that small fast-moving disturbance mentioned yesterday did bring 10-20 cm snowfalls to parts of the mid-Atlantic states and southern New Jersey, then went out to sea largely missing any of the rest of the U.S. northeast before grazing past Nova Scotia overnight. It will wind up into quite a powerful low heading north towards the East Greenland Sea; Iceland may see very strong winds from this low in a couple of days time.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 5 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar to the previous summary, the most conspicuous feature will be fast changing temperature regimes and occasionally quite blustery conditions.

FORECASTS

TODAY will feature some morning sunshine with frost gradually relenting, although it might persist in shaded locations until mid-day. With light winds at first, it will not be unpleasantly cold but temperatures will take a while to start rising significantly. By late afternoon, cloud and stronger southerly winds will be rapidly moving in followed by rain. Highs by late afternoon and into the evening around 8 C.

TONIGHT will become windy with rain followed by squally showers and possible thunderstorms. Winds will increase to south-southwest 70-110 km/hr, then veer sharply to westerly before daybreak in the west. Temperatures steady near 8 C.

THURSDAY will become colder in stages with westerly winds of 70-110 km/hr in exposed locations. Variable cloud at first will be replaced by overcast skies and squally showers that will rapidly become mixed and wintry in nature. Hills in Donegal and parts of north Connacht could see 3-5 cm snow accumulations. Elsewhere, a wide mixture of shower types, with rain, hail or ice pellets, sleet, snow pellets and snow all possible and perhaps accompanied in places by thunder. It will feel very cold in the strong winds as temperatures fall off to around 2-4 C.

THURSDAY NIGHT will remain windy and cold with snow showers becoming rather widespread in the north, but only accumulating very much on higher terrain. Showers more mixed and isolated across the south. Lows -2 to +1 C. Winds westerly 60-90 km/hr.

FRIDAY will start out with more cold blustery conditions and mixed wintry showers. It will start to turn a bit milder by afternoon and winds will back to southwest remaining in the 60-90 km/hr range. Highs by evening near 9 C.

SATURDAY will try to perform a repeat of Thursday with the cold air rushing in and temperatures falling, mixed wintry showers developing, but it may not be quite as intense a cold air mass so that snow will play a less prominent role, hail may be quite widespread at first though. Winds will be west to northwest at 70-110 km/hr and temperatures steady around 4 or 5 C.

SUNDAY will turn quite a bit milder with outbreaks of light rain, some hazy and partly cloudy mild conditions later on, highs 10-12 C.

MONDAY will remain rather mild with only isolated showers, highs about 10 C.

High pressure will swell up mid-week and while it could stay fairly mild, this will lead to a greater chance of overnight frosts and fog, which might then persist in some areas to early afternoons. This quieter spell will gradually lead to the return of colder air from the north.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with light snow but after a heavy snowfall on Monday this additional snow was only 2-4 cms. The highs fell back slightly to around -5 C but this feels mild compared to the deep freeze we had last week around here.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 6 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 Jan 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg below normal but there will be large variations. Today, Friday and Saturday will be generally quite cold then from Sunday to mid-week it will be milder, the first half of the interval may be 3-5 C deg below normal. The second half could be 1-3 C above and will almost balance the results out.

-- Rainfall will be about 75% of average, no change really because some of what was expected in the last two outlooks has fallen overnight and next week is looking relatively dry.

-- Sunshine will get into the mix and it's not hard to reach normal values when those are only 1.5 to 2 hours a day.

-- Very windy at times, notably later today, parts of Friday and Saturday. A trend towards less windy conditions will follow.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy and much colder again by mid-day, although it may feel relatively mild briefly if the sun comes out after the frontal rain this morning. Squally showers will develop rapidly in bands moving well inland from the Atlantic. These will tend to start out with mostly rain and hail, some thunder associated; then by late afternoon more of a wintry mix will develop since temperatures will continue to fall steadily from morning highs 8-10 C to afternoon readings near 2 C. Snow may accumulate on higher terrain and could cover the ground briefly almost anywhere due to the low freezing level; hail showers may also leave coatings. Driving conditions will deteriorate and become quite poor especially in the western half of the country. Winds westerly 70-110 km/hr.

TONIGHT will continue windy and very cold with squally wintry showers, some accumulating snow in places, and hail. Lows around -2 to +1 C. Winds westerly 70-110 km/hr will continue.

FRIDAY will see little change until mid-afternoon, when somewhat milder air will begin to arrive as winds back to southwest in the 50-80 km/hr. So after a morning of wintry showers and strong winds, temperatures in the 1 to 4 C range, the afternoon and evening will start to turn milder with rain, heavy at times. Temperatures will peak around midnight to 0300h Saturday in the 8-10 C range. Winds south to southwest 60-90 km/hr will veer more westerly.

SATURDAY will be quite similar to today with falling temperatures, strong westerly winds, and wintry showers. Highs will be only 2 to 5 C once the temperature overnight falls back again.

SUNDAY will see gradual warming and some outbreaks of light rain in southwest winds. Lows near 2 C and highs 8-11 C.

There are some uncertainties but the following week looks relatively benign for a while, with high pressure nearby, and temperatures not far from average, perhaps rather mild near some coasts, and possibly staying cold inland due to fog and low cloud, especially in the southeast.

Some guidance suggests that a mild spell will then abruptly give way to quite a significant outbreak of cold or even very cold air from the arctic. This change is timed roughly for the 20th-22nd time frame, but confidence in this remains moderate or even low at this early stage (it could just fail to push south like the Christmas cold air and leave the door open for milder air to stay in control). This will become the big topic on weather forums if the models keep showing this potential though.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with a bit of light snow and rather cold temperatures around -9 C. Another snowstorm is brewing for the east coast of the U.S. but this one looks set to move further north and give all regions at least some snow, potential is there for 10-15 cm amounts.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 7 January, 2022 ____ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue similar to yesterday's report.

FORECASTS are also largely unchanged except for the discussion about the longer term developments ...

TODAY will remain windy and cold with scattered wintry showers of hail, snow and rain in various areas, coming and going fairly frequently in some areas. These wintry showers will tend to die out around early afternoon, with a brief dry interval before rain arrives with somewhat milder temperatures by this evening. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr will back to southwest 50-80 km/hr by evening. Temperatures will be slowly rising and this trend will continue into the evening hours when it may be close to 8 to 10 C, but only around 4-6 C mid-day.

TONIGHT will be windy with rain turning to squally showers, south to southwest winds 60-90 km/hr, temperatures steady around 8 C. About 10-15 mm rain is expected.

SATURDAY will turn colder after a briefly mild interval following the passage of the overnight rain. Wintry showers will once again develop in strong westerly winds of 60-90 km/hr. Temperatures will slide back down to around 2 C.

SUNDAY will turn milder in stages, after lows -1 to +2 C, with perhaps some local frost to start the day in the inland southeast, but a generally milder trend in light to moderate southwest winds, outbreaks of light rain, and highs reaching about 10 C.

MONDAY will see some dry partly cloudy intervals, rain skirting the northwest coasts but this front unlike the previous two will just fizzle out and will not cross the country or produce much weather on land at all. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

The rest of next week still looks relatively benign with high pressure nearby and temperatures around normal if not a touch higher.

The only real change from yesterday's discussion is that some guidance is backing away from colder weather arriving after that calm interval next week. This is probably far from being a settled matter yet though.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with a small amount of snow, and temperatures steady around -7 C. We are expecting a heavy snowfall later today though, as a storm on the coast moves by to our south during the day. That coastal storm has changed snow to rain in Vancouver and freezing rain further inland, but heavy snow is developing across the mountains and will cover most of the inland sections of BC on Friday. Meanwhile there is a moderate snowfall event underway on the east coast with NYC and Boston expecting around 10-15 cm by late Friday. This storm will intensify approaching Nova Scotia on the weekend and bring blizzard conditions to some parts of New Brunswick while rain hits eastern Nova Scotia.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 8 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 Jan --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.

-- Rainfalls will average only 25 per cent of normal.

-- Sunshine may exceed normal by 25-50 per cent.

-- Winds will be quite strong today, moderate tomorrow then rather light for January for the rest of the week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy with passing showers turning more wintry in the afternoon as temperatures slide down gradually to reach about 2-5 C by mid-afternoon. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr. Some brighter intervals in the mix too, especially over eastern counties.

TONIGHT will continue rather breezy and cold, but temperatures will likely bottom out around -1 C in the evening and then start to rise gradually towards morning in a southwesterly flow. A few scattered outbreaks of light rain may develop towards morning.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, turning milder in stages. Outbreaks of light rain will be more persistent in the north. Highs 7-9 C.

MONDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and patchy light rain here and there, probably giving only small accumulations, and some places staying dry. Lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and somewhat colder again with lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will be a calm and reasonably mild stretch, with perhaps some patchy frost developing in the inland south and east, but daytime readings should recover to the 7-9 C range for most, and 10-12 C near some western and northern coasts.

The general outlook for the following weekend is for cloud and a few light showers but not much change in this somewhat featureless weather pattern next week, highs still up around 8 C.

After that, guidance looks a bit indecisive, with this tranquil trend perhaps hanging on for another few days, but colder air threatening to move south -- we probably won't have a very firm idea of what's going to happen beyond the weekend of 15th-16th for a few days yet.

My local weather was overcast and milder, some snow fell, then we got into a weak warmer sector of Pacific origins, then back into the colder air this evening. At one point it was just about +1 C for a few moments but it has since dropped to -6 C. The east coast of the U.S. had a moderate snowfall as expected and will now have a rather cold, dry weekend with a band of rain turning to freezing rain or sleet due in from our recent storm when it rapidly crosses the country and arrives on the east coast Sunday night. That will be followed by unseasonably cold weather for a few days as the central Canada cold air mass finally has a way out and moves southeastward.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 9 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS -- This coming week will be rather uneventful with high pressure taking over for a while. Temperatures will not be very far from average after a couple of milder days. There will not be very much rainfall once today's weak fronts have come and gone. Sunshine may be fairly generous for mid-January, and winds will subside to light and variable by tomorrow.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see a few outbreaks of rain mostly in the north and west, where 5 mm could fall, but in the east and south it will be partly cloudy and largely dry with perhaps a few brief drizzly showers. Highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will become rather foggy in places, lows near 3 C.

MONDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter spells, light rain may brush past the northwest coasts at times, and highs will be 10-12 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny at times, with light westerly winds, somewhat cooler with lows -2 to +3 C and highs 7-9 C.

WEDNESDAY to about SATURDAY will continue to feel the influence of high pressure with light winds, clear to partly cloudy skies that might permit some overnight fog and (in the inland southeast) frost. Highs each of these days will be close to the same range of 7 to 9 C with 10 or 11 C possible near the west coast. Overnight lows will be 1-3 C but could be a bit lower with frost in the southeast, and a bit higher under more extensive cloud in the northwest.

Even when this spell has begun to transition to somewhat more active weather patterns, the general influence of high pressure may remain in place and there could be an extended interval of relatively quiet and uneventful weather. Guidance does show colder air masses forming and moving southeast across parts of Britain and the North Sea at times, into central Europe, but they tend to be far enough east that they have little or no effect in Ireland -- it should be understood though that a fairly small change in that guidance could bring some of this colder air into the forecast picture.

My local weather on Saturday was partly cloudy with a few brief sunny breaks, and highs were around -5 C. The evening brought more cloud and a light snowfall as warm fronts begin to push in. The severe cold is rapidly waning now over western Canada and has shifted further east towards the northern plains, northern Great Lakes regions. Alberta is about to see a much milder week with the chinook starting to bring in temperatures as high as 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 10 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 Jan --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.

-- Rainfall will be very slight, between trace amounts and 2 mm.

-- Sunshine may be close to average although some places may be stuck under persistent stratus cloud layers.

-- Winds will drop off to very light and remain in the 15-30 km/hr range daytime hours and often calm at night.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be overcast and quite mild with a few more outbreaks of drizzle or light rain, little accumulation is foreseen, highs 10 to 13 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast, some patchy drizzle near north coast, lows 3 to 6 C.

From TUESDAY to next weekend, high pressure will be nearby, and winds will be very light, rather persistent cloud decks will be difficult for the weak January sun to burn off, but some sun may get through here and there mostly near the west coast. Temperatures each day will be in a similar range, with highs around 7 to 9 C, and lows only a bit colder than that due to the cloud, 5 to 7 C in many areas, but the inland south and sometimes the midlands also could have clear spells at night allowing for somewhat colder lows near 1 C. Frost is possible in a few spots. Some fog could form too.

This rather unexciting weather pattern has the one advantage of making it fairly easy to get around and not too stressful on home heating budgets either.

There is really no definitive end in sight to the pattern either, but in the past models have tended to hold on to similar patterns a bit longer than they actually survive. This one will probably start to break down after next weekend and before the end of the month. But until it does, there will be very little weather especially when one considers what could be happening at this time of year (either cold and snow, or wind and rain).

My local weather looks set to go into a similar mode for a week, as the cold pattern here recently breaks down. Sunday was mostly cloudy with highs around -3 C. Some clearing at times overnight is allowing temperatures to fall off below -10 but we will likely have quite a dull week with temperatures close to the freezing point. A colder pattern now extends from the central arctic to the east coast of the U.S., with chances for winter storms there although guidance not very unified on what areas should prepare for them in about a week or so.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 11 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, near normal temperatures, dry and partly cloudy skies with light winds for about a week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with some areas having sunny breaks, others likely to have longer intervals of low cloud. Highs 6 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with some longer clear intervals developing, leading to some frost and local fog. Lows -2 to +3 C.

WEDNESDAY will become mostly cloudy with a few breaks, and highs 5 to 9 C, possibly 10 C near some western and northern coasts.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue similar with mostly cloudy skies, some breaks in the overcast, and a few spots of drizzle at times in the southwest mainly. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

NEXT WEEKEND could see a slight southeast breeze picking up but it will remain rather cloudy and chilly with temperatures in a narrow range, 3 to 7 C.

By the first part of the following week, systems may begin to move a little and this could lead to somewhat milder temperatures returning. Eventually if the logjam clears completely, there might be an opportunity for colder air to reach some parts of the region, at the present time the cold is being directed over Scandinavia towards central Europe, but patterns seem to be about to shift a bit westward (retrograde movement at upper levels) which could encourage colder air to move south closer to the longitude of Britain and then Ireland.

My local weather featured hazy sunshine and just a hint of milder air that came in more direct measure for regions east of the Rockies. Our high was around -1 C but Calgary had 8 C and a few places in Montana reached 12-15 C in a rather weak chinook that may stick around most of the week as cold high pressure areas are now moving south through central Canada into the Great Lakes region. Eastern Canada is bracing for a rather large and powerful storm system expected by about Thursday night or Friday. Guidance keeps changing on the track for this but it's heading up into the eastern Canadian arctic and won't be coming across the Atlantic.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 12 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

The trends remain similar to those posted previously.

TODAY will be partly cloudy to sunny across parts of the south. A few places have dropped below freezing in the inland south, be wary of the potential for localized black ice conditions especially if a cold fog is present. But those conditions would be quite limited to small areas (Cork, south Limerick, west Tipps perhaps the most at risk areas). Otherwise temperatures are already in the 4-7 C range and will either stay there all day or rise slightly to reach highs of 6-9 C. More cloud will spread into the north than elsewhere. Winds remaining quite light and variable.

TONIGHT will see roughly the same conditions with a better chance of frost and fog in the inland south but perhaps becoming a bit more widespread into parts of the midlands too. Cloudier further north. Lows -2 to +3 C except closer to 5-7 C near some coasts.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue with similar conditions although a trend towards more widespread low cloud may be noted, and highs may drop a degree or two as a result.

By SATURDAY a weak frontal disturbance will try to push in from the northwest. It may succeed in dropping small amounts of rain in parts of the north, with dry weather but cloudy skies further south. Highs again around 4 to 8 C.

From SUNDAY to an unknown end point of this episode (at least middle of the following week), high pressure will remain in control and there will be more rather featureless weather punctuated by the anguished curses of weather geeks as they prepare to hurl themselves off high places. This may be prevented if the weather models return to a theme briefly explored by the GFS model on one run earlier Tuesday, showing a lot of cold air flowing in from the north. This idea came and went in one model run and is no longer really a strong possibility but there are a few faint signs of colder air masses towards the end of January.

My local weather has been no more exciting really, overcast, with a bit of light snow at times, highs near -1 C. The two storms I described yesterday are still on the charts for Friday in eastern Canada then Sunday in the eastern U.S., but details are difficult to pin down with different models offering different tracks especially for the second storm which is probably going to form rather slowly out of the weak energy rippling through my part of the continent now and setting off this light snowfall. Nothing much happens until this energy drops southeast into Colorado and Oklahoma, then a fairly significant storm system begins to form, but it may or may not move to the coast; some models take it on an inland route which would subject the east coast to a warmup with rain while the heavy snow would fall over the central highlands of PA into upstate NY. Time will tell on that. Just remember to look up if you hear those weather geeks cursing. At least I won't be landing on you.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 13 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 13-19 January --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, with some inland south averages near 1-2 deg below normal.

-- Rainfall will be very slight where any does occur, around Saturday, most places will average 5-10 per cent of normal.

-- Sunshine may work out near average but some places will have plenty while others get stuck with persistent cloud.

-- Winds very light generally, sometimes picking up to the low end of "moderate" range around Saturday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather cloudy with a few locations enjoying longer sunny spells. Some morning fog may be rather persistent. Temperatures will respond slowly where fog persists, but otherwise highs of 7 to 9 C can be expected.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with a few clear spots prone to fog and frost formation, lows -2 to +3 C.

FRIDAY will be mostly cloudy with some persistent fog and highs in the range of 4 to 8 C, colder where fog persists.

SATURDAY will see some slight increase in wind speeds as high pressure weakens, winds southeast 30-50 km/hr, mostly cloudy skies, and outbreaks of drizzle or very light rain more likely in the south and west. Lows near 1 C and highs near 7 C.

SUNDAY high pressure will return and this next variety may be slightly colder in general, would expect lows of -3 to +1 C and highs 4 to 8 C each day from Sunday to late in the week, with some sunshine here and there, considerable low cloud, and widespread morning fog, sometimes freezing fog with isolated occurrences of black ice and hazardous driving conditions, most likely to show up in the inland southeast and midlands.

There is no reliable guidance on when this rather static weather pattern might finally break down or what might follow. There are some signs that it could persist right through the following week and into the week beyond that.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with occasional sleet or wet snow, as a disturbance slowly moves inland from the Pacific coast where it's mild and rainy. This will form the nucleus of a storm that will develop over the plains states and move to the east coast by Sunday with a mixture of snow, sleet and rain for them as well. Some heavy snowfalls are expected from this in parts of the central plains, Ohio valley, and mountains of the inland northeastern states.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 14 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain the same, near average temperatures, almost totally dry, partly cloudy skies with a bit of sunshine here and there, and light winds.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with a few places seeing a bit more sunshine than most, and any fog or mist gradually dissipating. Highs 5 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with a few clear intervals, lows -2 to +4 C.

SATURDAY will see a slight increase in wind speeds to the 20-40 km/hr range, as a weak disturbance far off to the southwest tries to make a dent in the high pressure. The results will be fairly bland, with a bit of drizzly light rain in a few places, and that breeze noticeable near some coasts. Highs 5-9 C.

SUNDAY high pressure rebuilds from the northwest, it may be a fairly bright day with patchy cloud banks, and lows -2 to +3 C, highs 5 to 9 C.

All of next week, this same high will be close at hand, with the chance of a slight amount of rain for western coastal districts around Monday from another attempt at a change in the pattern which will also probably come to nothing, so expect a very static weather picture in most areas, light winds, and perhaps somewhat milder as a slight south to southwest flow develops with this high settling in over southern England and northern France. Highs later next week may be closer to 11 C than the current range. Longer term guidance breaks down this blocking around the end of the second week ahead and replaces it with a colder northerly flow. Not overly confident of any guidance at this point, but eventually this block will be gone and weather will become active again.

My local weather was foggy all day with temperatures in the range of 2 to 3 C. The energy for the projected eastern U.S. storm (Sunday-Monday) rippled through this region last night and is now building the low pressure area east of Denver, Colorado. It hasn't amounted to much yet, the snow is well displaced to its east around North Dakota, but eventually the circulation will tighten up over the southern states and a fairly powerful low is expected to be in the southeast U.S. by Sunday with an ice storm predicted for Atlanta. Snowfalls of 5-15 cm appear likely ahead of the low but coastal areas will see a rapid change to sleet and rain, with heavier snows confined to the higher elevations well inland (Sunday night into Monday). Bitterly cold temperatures will settle in over most of the Great Lakes region and this cold will ebb and flow for about two weeks with more storm chances to come for the eastern seaboard of the U.S.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 15 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain stable from past several days.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few spots of drizzle becoming somewhat more widespread outbreaks of light rain later on, as a very weak front cuts through the high pressure ridge from the northwest. Rainfall amounts of trace to 2 mm are expected. Highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will see further light rain for a time then dry but partly to mostly cloudy skies towards morning. Lows 3 to 7 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with highs near 9 C, light winds.

SUNDAY NIGHT could bring some longer clear intervals which might produce a sharper frost with lows -4 to +2 C. A full moon will be visible and will be perhaps surprisingly high up in the sky at midnight as we slowly approach a peak of the moon's 18.6 year declination cycle.

MONDAY will start out with frost and fog, clearing later to partly cloudy skies, highs near 8 C.

TUESDAY will perhaps see more of a northwest breeze as this next high backs off slightly to the south and west. When that happens, colder air will be allowed to move south into parts of Britain and the North Sea but the effects of that will be marginal except perhaps in east Ulster which might have a high only around 6 C, other regions will stay in the 8-10 C range.

From WEDNESDAY to about MONDAY 24th, high pressure will remain in charge and a very slight southwest flow will develop so it could be somewhat milder than the first part of this long pause in active weather has been, with highs 10 to 12 C. Nights most likely in the 2-5 C range in that interval, but local frosts in the inland south and midlands cannot be ruled out.

Eventually, guidance favours the end of this inactive period leading on to colder air masses from the north or east, although nothing too extreme is currently anticipated.

My local weather on Friday was overcast and foggy with a bit of freezing drizzle in the air at times, with temperatures in a narrow range of -1 to +1 C. Our snow pack in town has remained around 30-35 cm but is now frozen over to some extent. I'm told there is a 50-75 cm snowpack in the local ski hills and this is close to a normal amount for around here. Meanwhile, a complex storm is slowly taking shape over the central U.S., the low was in Texas but the snow was much further north, around Iowa, with a large area of mild, dry weather in between. This system is going to be forced into a more dynamic state over the southeastern U.S. today, and will then become quite powerful when it reaches the east coast on Monday. Snow, sleet and rain will fall in bands, with persistent heavy snow only well inland and up above where most people live in that region. Some flight delays seem likely at major eastern airports on Monday. There is quite a slug of frigid arctic air waiting to greet this storm, with pressures as high as 1045 mb in central Ontario and temperatures in the mid -30s there, less extreme in the outflow from this high but cold enough to set off rare northeast wind squalls on all the lakes which have remained ice-free to this point (recent temperature soundings were in the 3-5 C range). Another interesting factor is that the Atlantic sea surface temperatures are well in excess of January normals to the east of the big cities, with 20-23 C readings not that far from the coast. This will be a very volatile storm system when it does round the bottom of a trough and begins to head north around Sunday mid-day.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 16 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, near normal temperatures perhaps 0.5 to 1.0 deg above normal in places, mostly dry and with average amounts of sunshine, light winds continuing.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks mostly in the south, highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with a few places clearing, frost and fog possible there, lows -3 to +3 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy, morning fog or mist slowly dissipating, highs 8 to 10 C.

The rest of the week will continue much the same with partly cloudy skies on average, some places more overcast than others, light winds, and highs each day around 10 or 11 C, overnight lows often in the 2-5 C range, but subject to some variation depending on clear skies which might lead to frost and denser fog patches forming.

The guidance still seems to continue this spell of quiet weather for another week or slightly longer, then a gradual change to a somewhat more active pattern although not with very much rainfall associated, and temperatures sometimes a little below average.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast and milder with highs near 2 C. The east coast of the U.S. will face a mixture of snow, sleet and rain later tonight and Monday morning, as low pressure now in southern Georgia moves up the coast. Sleet, freezing rain and snow are falling over the inland southeast with rain and thunderstorms closer to the Atlantic coast. It has turned unseasonably cold in the south central states in the wake of the storm and snowfalls of 15-25 cm are reported through parts of Iowa, Missouri and Arkansas, with similar amounts expected today in the Tennessee valley as the snow from this storm spreads up through the Appalachian mountain chain towards West Virginia and eventually central PA.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 17 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 Jan --

-- Temperatures will be slightly below normal values, more so in parts of the east and inland south due to the possibility of some frosty nights, but this is not going to be a bitterly cold arctic sort of cold, just the homegrown variety when high pressure doesn't receive much warming from the weak low January sun. ... It will remain largely dry with a few weak frontal passages creating rainfalls of 1 or 2 mm around Tuesday night and towards Friday. Most places will be unlikely to see even a quarter of their normal rainfall ... Sunshine will be about the normal amount for mid-January when an average of 2 hours a day is considered generous. Winds will remain rather light except that they might pick up on one or two days when the ever-present high backs away a bit before returning. Wednesday looks a little breezier than most other days.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be quite frosty to start and some roads, in particular secondary routes, may be quite icy until well on into the morning. Eventually most of the frost and any fog should clear away and there will be some sunny intervals, with highs near 7 C, possibly a few degrees higher near coasts.

TONIGHT may see some return of frost but cloud moving in overnight will cause temperatures to rise back above freezing after perhaps reaching lows near -2 C around late evening or midnight.

TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with the overcast creating some hill fog in the north, with a few outbreaks of light rain spreading into the north and west, with a slight increase in winds to westerly 30-50 km/hr at least in Connacht and Ulster. Highs near 8 C.

WEDNESDAY will become rather breezy from the northwest (40-60 km/hr) as the high backs off to the west, and this will allow the breeze to mix the air more and perhaps lead to longer sunny intervals away from cloudy west-facing coastlines. Highs 7 to 9 C.

THURSDAY will be back to rather calm conditions and mostly cloudy skies, with highs near 8 C.

From FRIDAY to about SUNDAY, more bland and relatively calm conditions are expected with highs 8 to 10 C, overnight lows generally a bit above freezing in most places.

Another one-day northwesterly spell is indicated for around Monday or Tuesday, and from then on the month may become generally a bit colder but no large changes in this placid and dry regime are expected. At this rate, January will end up with only half of its normal amount of rainfall, if we saw no further rain from today to the 31st then what has already fallen would represent just 40% of normal, but with a bit more expected, we may finish around 50% of normal. The average temperature to the 16th was slightly above normal, today may bring that down to exactly long-term average (which is how normal is defined in the weather stats).

My local weather is no more exciting than your own, with very little change from day to day, a featureless low stratus overcast that remains largely dry, with temperatures night and day in a very narrow range from -2 to +1 C. There was a little sleet at one point. The east coast got the mixture of snow, sleet and rain expected, along with some locally strong winds, and that storm is now proceeding into Quebec and eventually up towards western Greenland. Very little snow fell in the larger cities, except for Washington DC which had about 10 cms. Much heavier amounts were reported from the Allegheny Mountain region west of DC, with blizzard conditions and 30 cms of snow at one ski resort there. A rather dry and cold pattern is developing for the eastern and central regions, mild and dry for the west, as any strong winds or rain are directed more towards Alaska.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 18 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain same as yesterday's discussion.

TODAY will be mostly cloudy and a little milder with outbreaks of rain (2 to 4 mm expected) across Connacht, Ulster and north Leinster, just trace amounts further south. Southwest breezes 30-50 km/hr will develop gradually, highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will be breezy and winds will veer to westerly 40-60 km/hr, with a few more showers mainly in Ulster and north Leinster. Lows 4 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy to sunny in eastern and southern counties with perhaps more cloud further west and north. Somewhat colder in a moderate northwest breeze 30-50 km/hr. Highs 6 to 9 C.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY will then be dominated by high pressure almost directly over Ireland. Very light winds will develop again, with some rather cold nights especially where skies clear up. Lows could reach -4 to -1 C. More cloud is expected in the west and north so nights may remain milder there. Lows of 3 to 7 C can be expected in those regions. Daytime temperatures will be more similar from one region to another, in the range of 5 to 8 C mostly, some readings near 10 C around the more temperate coastal areas.

This pattern shows only faint signs of breaking down to any great extent after that, so we'll just have to be patient and wait for more definite signals to emerge. The atmosphere has not gone completely dead everywhere, a major snowstorm hit some places in eastern North America, with Toronto and Buffalo seeing 50-60 cm amounts, Ottawa and Montreal about 30-50 cm. That storm is headed northeast towards Greenland now. My own local weather was rather inert too, however, with low cloud, some fog or mist, and temperatures steady near -2 C. Although they do a good job around here clearing roads and sidewalks of snow, a few places have become quite icy but where no snow clearance has taken place, there's a level 35 cm snow pack which is also partially frozen over.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 19 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 Jan 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal in the west, to 1.5 deg below normal in the east.

-- Rainfall will be very slight, near zero for many, 2-4 mm potentially near west coast later in the interval.

-- Sunshine will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal.

-- Winds will be moderate today and sometimes returning to moderate later in the interval, but generally light otherwise.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather breezy for a time, especially across parts of the south as a cold front pushes through. Later on, moderate northwest breezes and partly cloudy to sunny skies are expected, highs 9 to 11 C.

TONIGHT will bring clear intervals, scattered frosts and patchy fog, with lows -3 to +3 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny, with more cloud expected near northwest coasts, highs 6 to 9 C.

FRIDAY will also be partly cloudy to sunny with morning frosts and fog patches, lows near -2 C and highs near 7 C.

From Saturday to about mid-week, high pressure will sink slowly further south, which will keep nights clear and rather cold in the inland south, but cloudy and not as cold further north. Days will tend to be partly cloudy to overcast in all regions. Lows will vary from -2 to +4 C and highs from 7 to 10. There may be some light rain at times near the west coast but this will not amount to much there, and will not spread much further east.

Eventually the high pressure area will drift far enough south that a stronger westerly flow can resume and some frontal systems will return to the weather picture near the end of January, possibly leading to much stronger winds at times. Temperatures may rise somewhat as a result of the mild Atlantic air being allowed to exert control, with colder air held off for a few days.

My local weather on Tuesday was rather misty with glimpses of the sun at times, and highs near -1 C. Areas that are digging out from Monday's heavy snow are also bracing for extremely cold weather setting in behind a fast-moving disturbance bringing some light snow except for locally heavier snow squalls in southwest winds off the Great Lakes which so far have very little ice cover yet.