Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 22 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... some dry spells will continue in the north but rain will become more frequent elsewhere as temperatures gradually fall back to near and then below normal values. Rather cloudy in comparison to most of last week.

FORECASTS

TODAY rain across parts of the southern and central regions will ease gradually by afternoon except in a few parts of west Munster, and it will be rather cool under persistent cloud with highs 13 to 16 C. A few brighter spots further north (west Ulster in particular) could reach 18 C.

TONIGHT a few showers may linger near south coast, otherwise generally dry under partly cloudy skies, lows 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine, light winds, and highs 17 to 20 C. It could turn a bit colder in parts of Ulster with low cloud and highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY increasing cloud followed by rain across parts of the south, scattered showers by evening and overnight further north, rather cool. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY rain will slowly pull away from the south towards Britain where it could turn quite heavy. A colder air mass will push in from the north bringing variable amounts of cloud and a few showers. Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be unseasonably cool with variable cloud amounts and scattered outbreaks of light rain, possibly mixing with hail or even sleet on high ground. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 12 C.

The weekend of 28-29 September looks a bit milder but temperatures will only recover to the 13-16 C range. Another outbreak of chilly rain is likely around Sunday before a milder trend sets in towards the end of the week (30 Sep- 4 Oct).

My local weather on Saturday was sunny and rather cool, after traces of frost in low-lying areas the high was around 16 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 23 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Turning cooler in the next three days, very cool later this week, warming up in stages after that and quite warm for the first few days of October. Some heavier rains will accompany these changes, especially across the south. (Sunday's rains underperformed in Ireland, very few places saw even 2 mm, but parts of south-central England saw 40-50 mm which was expected, the western extension of this retrograde system seemed to lack much energy ... I don't think that will be as much of an issue for later rainfall potential in systems moving from west or northwest)

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring mostly cloudy skies and a few residual drizzly showers in the south. Best chance for any sunny breaks would likely be around north midlands and west Ulster, Connacht. Highs will be around 16 C.
TONIGHT cloudy with a few clear breaks, lows 6 to 9 C.
TUESDAY variable cloud, an increase in higher cloud (possibly obscured by lower cloud decks) as a disorganized low approaches from southwest, rain should hold off until evening for most. Highs around 17 C.
WEDNESDAY outbreaks of rain, heaviest in Munster and south Leinster (10-15 mm), more showery with passage of a cold front in northern and later central regions, lows near 7 C and highs 12 C north to 14 C south.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY breezy to windy and very chilly for late September, temperatures will struggle to get much past 10 C and could fall to near frost ranges at night (2-5 C for most places due to cloudy conditions). A few outbreaks of rain with hail possible, and would not be surprised if sleet or snow fell on peaks as freezing levels will be near 1200 meters. Winds northerly, later backing to northwesterly, 40 to 70 km/hr adding a chill. A few brighter intervals would be most likely in lee of higher terrain such as southeast coast.
SATURDAY will remain rather cool but with winds light and variable for a time, and a slight increase in daytime highs after possibly a frosty start, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 11 to 15 C.
SUNDAY, an Atlantic low that fed off the remains of weak tropical storm Gordon's moisture in regions west of the Azores will move across Ireland and it could be quite a strong rainfall producer with gusty winds on the flanks, exact track will determine what if any strong wind potential will develop. Temperatures in the 10 to 13 C range with this stormy weather.
After that passes, the flow returns to a westerly direction and air masses will warm up to the 17-20 C range in early October with potential for some active frontal systems in the mix as well as one or two day dry intervals. Another tropical remnant from a storm not yet formed in the central Atlantic could be coming along near the second weekend from now (5-6 Oct).
Meanwhile, it looks very likely that Hurricane Helene will form off the Yucatan Peninsula and reach a strong cat-3 to cat-4 intensity in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, by Thursday night, making a landfall in northwest Florida by late Friday. Remnants of Helene will probably circle around similar to Francine's dying stages. A third tropical system is also indicated for the central Atlantic after the one already mentioned, and it could be a stronger storm also (with some potential to reach western Europe around 8-10 October).

My local weather was pleasant on Sunday with high clouds parting for a brief sunny and warmer spell allowing highs to reach 21 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 24 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... cloudy and cool, rather wet especially across southern counties. Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below average. Rainfalls will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal in south, near normal further north.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few light showers, mostly in northern counties. Highs 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT cloudy with light rain spreading gradually into the southwestern counties, scattered light showers elsewhere. Lows 5 to 8 C.

WEDNESDAY occasional rain turning heavier across some southern counties, variable cloud further north with showers. Rather cool, highs 13 to 15 C. Some outbreaks of heavy rain by Wednesday night in the southeastern counties, 20-30 mm potential. About 5 to 15 mm for most other regions.

THURSDAY rain ending by mid-day in the south and east, turning unseasonably cool, windy at times (northerly 40-60 km/hr), and further outbreaks of rain, with some hail and thunder, as temperatures stall in the range of 8 to 12 C. Quite chilly by late afternoon and evening (7 to 10 C).

FRIDAY variable cloud, but longer sunny breaks for most areas, still a few heavy showers possible, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 9 to 13 C.
SATURDAY a little milder, variable cloud, light rain at times in west and north, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 12 to 15 C.
SUNDAY windy with outbreaks of heavy rain possible. If this weather system slows down or tracks a bit further north, southern counties could see an interval of very strong southwest winds by Sunday night, but this is not confirmed yet as guidance is spread on the track. Temperatures will be rather cool especially during intervals of rain, in the range of 12 to 14 C.
MONDAY rain tapering to showers, windy at times, lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.
A slightly milder week will follow, but with further outbreaks of rain likely.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (will become Helene) continues its gradual formation south of Cuba. It is still expected to become a hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night and will make a landfall in northwest Florida by Friday. Two tropical systems will form in the central Atlantic in the next two weeks, the first looks rather weak but the second one is currently shown as a strengthening hurricane west of the Azores by around 10 Oct.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and warm with highs around 24 C. A half moon is currently rising with Jupiter quite bright also rising ahead of it.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 25 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS will continue cool, wet (especially in south) and rather cloudy.

FORECASTS

TODAY some outbreaks of rain across the south will make slow progress further north until late afternoon. Variable cloud with isolated showers in central and northern counties, highs 13 to 15 C, generally light northeast winds picking up to a moderate northerly at times in exposed coastal areas.
TONIGHT rain will continue across the south and will drift further north into most of Leinster and east Ulster, with an interval of patchy light rain in other areas. Lows 5 to 8 C.
THURSDAY some unseasonably cool air will push south into Ulster and Connacht, for a time the somewhat milder air in the south and east will hold this back but the weak mild sector will collapse taking the rain with it towards Britain by afternoon. Temperatures will struggle to get much past 10 C in the north, and if they manage to reach 12-14 C in the south, will fall back to near 10 C by later afternoon. Winds will pick up steadily, becoming northerly 40 to 60 km/hr by mid-day and afternoon. Some embedded thunderstorms with hail possible.
FRIDAY will remain very cool and breezy with a few more sunny breaks in the mix, as well as passing showers, a few rather heavy with hail. Lows 1 to 4 C and highs 11 to 14 C.
SATURDAY will moderate somewhat with a mixture of cloud and sunshine, isolated showers, but risk of frost inland south and east. Lows 1 to 5 C, highs 12 to 16 C.
SUNDAY will see another rainfall event concentrated in the south, with moderate east winds backing to northeast 40-60 km/hr over much of the country. The risk of strong southwest winds appears to have been ended by a southward shift in this low's track; those winds will strike southwest England and northern France. Temperatures will be steady 11 to 14 C.
Next week looks only slightly warmer now, and there could be some rain at times.
Helene has formed and is expected to become a hurricane very soon, with potential to be a major hurricane by late Wednesday and most of Thursday as it approaches northwest Florida.

My local weather was once again sunny and very warm with highs near 25 C. Clear at present with a chance to see aurora borealis and a rising half moon around midnight, so heading out now. Our warm spell ends with a sharp cold front later Wednesday but further warm spells seem to be coming our way next week too.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 26 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... cool and wet, especially in southern counties, limited amounts of sunshine.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become breezy to windy as colder air filters into western and central counties. Rain will persist for part of the morning in east Ulster and Leinster, becoming heavy around Down and Louth at times. Further west, some outbreaks of rain in passing showers. Temperatures will remain steady in range of 9 to 12 C except may rise briefly to 14-16 C in parts of the southeast before the colder air covers all regions later today. Winds increasing to north-northeast 40 to 60 km/hr adding a significant chill in exposed locations.
TONIGHT will continue breezy and cool with passing showers, becoming sleety on higher terrain. Lows 1 to 4 C.
FRIDAY will be somewhat brighter but still quite chilly, with passing showers including some with hail and thunder. Winds northwest 30 to 50 km/hr. Highs 11 to 14 C.
SATURDAY a mixture of cloud and sun, showers brief and more isolated, winds backing to westerly and more moderate too. Lows around -1 to +4 C with frost possible inland south and east. Highs 13 to 16 C.
SUNDAY increasing cloud early morning leading to rain and, near south coast, strong winds at times. Lows 7 to 9 C and highs 13 to 15 C.
MONDAY rain tapering to showers, cool and breezy (northwest 40 to 60 km/hr), lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.
Not much change in this regime is foreseen. Tropical Storm Isaac formed in the western Atlantic and is going to attempt to follow the Sunday-Monday low on a similar track, but current guidance shows cooler air from the far north cutting off its eastward progress near the Azores, forcing it to circle back towards Newfoundland while the cooler air floods south for later next week across Ireland and indeed most of western Europe also.

Hurricane Helene is slowly strengthening at 0100h Central time and is expected to reach at least cat-3, possibly cat-4 intensity before making a landfall this evening local time, south of Florida's state capital, Tallahassee. From there it will push quickly north into west-central Georgia bringing unusually strong winds far inland and torrential downpours in the 200-300 mm range. Storm surge will be considerable at the coast although large parts of the likely impact zone are swampy wildlife refuges and sparsely populated, with a few small towns at risk of major wind and surge damage. Heavily populated west coast of Florida including Tampa Bay are also at risk of a damaging storm surge but should avoid wind damage south of about Cedar Key.
Another weak tropical storm looks likely in the south central Atlantic next week, amounting to very little, but a stronger one is depicted becoming a hurricane east of Bermuda by about 10-12 Oct; this one has no certain track outcome as it meanders around between Bermuda and the Azores. If it ever becomes part of the European weather picture it would likely be towards mid-October.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly sunny and warm (24 C) with strong south winds until a cold front passed around dinner time, this brought some showers and isolated storms but very little rain fell here, and the gusty winds are now more moderate.