Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 25 March, 2010
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TODAY, one pulse of heavy rain will die out over Ulster this morning, with a further 15-20 mms possible there. Skies will brighten for a while further south over most of Ireland, and the sun could be out for a while, before a second area of heavy rain moves in from the south by early afternoon (south coast) reaching central counties by evening. So for some it may turn out to be quite a nice day between these areas of rain, but it will be close and warm with highs of 12-14 C. Winds will be light to moderate SE 10-20 mph. Some bursts of thundery rain are possible with both areas.

TONIGHT the rain will spread across Ireland and become moderate to heavy at times with 30-40 mms possible. Lows will be 8-11 C and it will be quite foggy especially over southern hills. Ulster could start out a bit cooler before the rain gets there (5-6 C). Dense fog could produce near-zero visibilities.

FRIDAY will be mostly cloudy with showers or longer periods of rain and temperatures steady in the range 9-11 C. Although further rainfall will be only 10-20 mms at this point there could be some minor flooding due mostly to the earlier rainfalls. Winds will be generally light but could increase to NE 15-30 mph in Donegal and parts of Connacht.

SATURDAY will be a brighter, breezy day with passing showers some of which could be thundery with hail, and highs of about 12 C. Winds will be WNW 20-40 mph.

SUNDAY is not "carved in stone" as models have different solutions, but it seems likely that the northern half of the country will turn much colder (4-6 C) with rain possibly mixing with sleet or hill snow, while the southern half remains mild with periods of rain and highs near 11 C. Winds will become NE 15-30 mph in the north, but will stay southerly in the south.

MONDAY is also somewhat uncertain as rather strong low pressure tracks either just south of the south coast, or through the southern inland counties. The further south it tracks, the colder it will become in general and the lower down the sleet or snow line will spread although rain seems more likely at sea level in any case. Taking a compromise, I'm saying rain with hill sleet or snow, NE winds 20-30 mph and temperatures in the 4-7 C range.

TUESDAY seems more likely to be cold in general as the low, however it tracks, should be well to the east by mid-day, and winds will swing around to NNW 20-40 mph, with mixed showers of hail, rain and mountain snow.

The rest of next week, however, should return to more seasonable temperatures.

Watch for updates both in this thread and if the weather crew get interested in the models later today.

I am trying to recall the details of Wednesday here, let me see, hazy sun with a mild high of 15 C. Sad to say I spent almost all of it indoors on the intertubes. :cool:

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 26 March, 2010
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TODAY will be cloudy with intervals of light rain mostly in the northern half of Ireland, while some scattered heavy showers or thundershowers are possible in south coastal counties, moving gradually northeast by late afternoon. Some areas may miss much of this rainfall and remain damp but otherwise rain free. The storm has split into several disorganized parts and so rainfall will vary considerably from place to place. Highs today will be about 11 C.

TONIGHT will be partly to mostly cloudy with some additional light rain possible in the east. Lows will be about 5 C.

SATURDAY will become partly cloudy with brisk west to northwest winds at 20-35 mph developing by mid-day, and some isolated but possibly heavy showers with hail or thunder. These will once again be rather hit or miss, more likely in north central counties. Highs will be about 12 C.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with rain developing across the south by late in the day. It could be cold enough for this rain to mix with sleet or snow over hills, and there may also be some isolated wintry showers further north. Winds will be turning towards the north but may be more easterly at first in southern counties. Temperatures will be falling off slowly from morning values in the south near 7 C and the north will stay in the 3-5 C range much of the day.

MONDAY will see a mixture of rain, sleet and snow developing with the snow more likely on higher slopes in the south but at fairly low elevations in the north. Winds will be northeast 20-30 mph and temperatures will stay rather steady in the range of 5-7 C south, 3-4 C north.

TUESDAY will become windy and even colder with passing showers of hail or snow. Highs will be only 3-4 C and morning lows could be frosty in places.

WEDNESDAY will continue windy and cold with wintry showers and very chilly temperatures (lows near -2 and highs near 4 C).

By THURSDAY there could be a more organized mixed sleet-snow event ... but as this is April first, perhaps I should not commit to anything until much closer to the time.

We're in a similar weather pattern here, it has been raining on and off all day Thursday, and the high was a rather bland 11 C.

Graces7

Hoping the heavy hail showers avoid Donegal as we intend being out selling with no shelter.... Bit tonight's met forecast seems to say lighter winds. Precipitation is one thing; wind is another entirely...

Joe Public

Graces7 wrote: »

Hoping the heavy hail showers avoid Donegal as we intend being out selling with no shelter.... Bit tonight's met forecast seems to say lighter winds. Precipitation is one thing; wind is another entirely...

There's about 1,000 Anglo Irish umbrellas looking for good homes.

snow ghost

Joe Public wrote: »

There's about 1,000 Anglo Irish umbrellas looking for good homes.

I could think of a few places to shove them where the sun don't shine.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 27 March, 2010
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TODAY will be cloudy with some sunny breaks, and intervals of light rain this morning across the south before breaking to variable cloud; by mid-day and afternoon more showers will develop, more frequent in Connacht and Ulster than elsewhere, and generally light but possibly with some hail locally. The highs will be around 11-12 C and winds will be moderate NW backing to W at 15-30 mph.

TONIGHT may bring a brief interval of light rain with a secondary front moving south across the country, followed by partly cloudy to clear skies with local frost developing as it turns considerably colder in the north especially. Lows will range from -2 C inland north to +3 C south coast. Dublin should be close to zero by morning with scattered light frost in the suburbs.

SUNDAY will be generally cloudy across the south and there may be a touch of light rain although most of the rain will stay offshore until evening as low pressure winds up west of Biscay to move towards Cornwall on Monday. This will leave the north under partly cloudy skies all day with perhaps the odd isolated shower and in general it will be rather chilly everywhere with highs in the 5-7 C range north and 7-9 C south.

SUNDAY NIGHT and MONDAY will see periods of rain developing in the south, mixing at times with sleet and snow over higher ground especially. The north may see less precipitation in general but what there is would be more likely to fall as snow. Winds will pick up to NNE 15-30 mph and lows will be close to zero in most areas, 2-3 C at the highest near Valentia. By late Monday it may be snowing almost down to sea level in central Ireland.

MONDAY NIGHT and TUESDAY will be windy and cold with intervals of snow or hail, temperatures as low as -2 C inland overnight and highs generally held down to 4-6 C despite some intervals of sunshine. Winds will be N 15-30 mph with some higher gusts. Nothing exceptionally heavy is expected in terms of snowfall although some hills could see 3-5 cms of cover, otherwise, it will be more of a 1-2 cm type of coverage from passing snow showers, that would then melt in the strong sunshine depsite the chill in the air. Snow late in the day of course could last overnight and that could drop the minimum temperatures in a few places.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue breezy to windy, and unseasonably cold, with the temperature range similar (-2 to 5 C) and scattered outbreaks of sleety rain or hail mixing at times with snow. Winds will sometimes back to NW but will be generally northerly at about 20-30 mph. I have the feeling that snowfall will be quite hit or miss but where it falls, it could come down rather heavily at times, more likely in Connacht given the wind direction expected.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will see a somewhat milder return flow from the west ahead of a new surge of cold air developing near Iceland .. this will bring temperatures up to about 7 or 8 C in a WSW wind with squally showers at times, still some chance of high elevation sleet, hail or snow. Then it could turn very cold again by Easter Sunday with snow in the picture in northerly winds. The timing on this is rather uncertain at this range, however.

Friday here was a dry but mostly cloudy day with a rather cold breeze from the east. It was about 10 C at mid-afternoon and is now about 5 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 28 March, 2010
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Much colder weather will arrive tonight and by Tuesday there could be snow in many parts of Ireland ...

TODAY will be generally cloudy across the south and there may be a touch of light rain by afternoon near the south coast, although most of the rain will stay offshore until evening. Further north there could be some sunny intervals by mid-day. In general it will be rather chilly everywhere with highs in the 6-8 C range north and 8-10 C south.

TONIGHT and MONDAY will see periods of rain developing in the south, mixing at times with sleet and snow over higher ground especially. The north may see less precipitation in general but what there is would be more likely to fall as snow. Winds will pick up to NNE 15-30 mph during the night, and lows will be close to zero in most areas, 2-3 C at the highest near Valentia. through Monday, the rain will spread gradually further north becoming rather heavy at times, and winds will increase further to ENE 25-45 mph. Rainfalls of 20-40 mms are possible, and there will be heavy falls of sleet or snow on hills especially in the southeast. By late Monday it may be snowing almost down to sea level in central Ireland, as temperatures all day remain in the 3-5 C range then fall off further by evening.

MONDAY NIGHT and TUESDAY will be windy and cold with intervals of snow or hail, temperatures as low as -2 C inland overnight and highs generally held down to 4-6 C despite some intervals of sunshine. Winds will be N 15-30 mph with some higher gusts. Most places are expected to see snowfalls of 2-5 cms although some hills could see 5-8 cms of cover; at lower elevations some or all of that would then melt in the strong sunshine depsite the chill in the air, but any snow late in the day of course could last overnight and that could drop the next day's minimum temperatures in a few places.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue breezy to windy, and unseasonably cold, with the temperature range similar (-2 to 5 C) and scattered outbreaks of sleety rain or hail mixing at times with snow. Winds will sometimes back to NW but will be generally northerly at about 20-30 mph. I have the feeling that snowfall will be quite hit or miss but where it falls, it could come down rather heavily at times, more likely in Connacht and parts of Ulster given the wind direction expected (NW mostly).

By FRIDAY and SATURDAY it may be slightly milder although still below seasonal averages, with highs closer to 8 C and intervals of rain mixing at the highest elevations with snow. A sharp frost seems likely EASTER SUNDAY followed by variable cloud, some sun and passing showers. Highs at this long range appear to be near 9 C.

Saturday here was a partly cloudy, mild day with a high near 13 C but quite a chilly wind by the evening.

There are some other threads active now about the impending cold and snow event. I think the bottom line is this, most places will see at least some snow cover returning, and frosts will be widespread inland.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 29 March, 2010
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I feel bad just typing this out ...

TODAY will be windy and wet, with colder air gradually mixing in from the north, causing temperatures to stall near 6-7 C in most of western and northern counties, before falling to about 4 C by late afternoon. The south and east should stay somewhat milder, 8-10 C, until this evening. Rain will become heavy at times with some thunder possible, in all but the far north where it is likely to mix early with snow. Otherwise, snow will be falling mostly at higher elevations at first, but could be seen at times at elevations as low as 200m by this evening. Rainfalls of 20-40 mms can be expected (10-20 mms far north), with some local flooding. Winds will be turning to the NE at 20-40 mph, except in the southeast where the wind direction will stay ESE at 15-30 mph.

TONIGHT will continue much the same although with the snow line tending to drop down a bit further so that more people see a mix of rain and snow, but it should stay all rain in Dublin and around the southeast coast and across the southeast inland below 100m. Snow will begin to accumulate to 2-4 cms on some higher ground and to 5-15 cms on higher summits. Winds will become strong NNE 25-45 mph in western and northern counties, and will drop off to SE 10 mph in the southeast, as the low centre moves across Wicklow before dawn. The southeast will turn foggy and hold on to the mild air with lows near 5 C but otherwise temperatures will be dropping slowly to around 1-2 C in the mixed sleety precip. Water levels may be higher than expected on the east coast around high tide. Full moon occurs tonight at 0225 GMT (0325 summer time).

TUESDAY will continue windy, very cold with mixed precipitation. Locally heavy falls of snow will begin to develop over parts of Ulster and Leinster, especially away from sea level and urban centres, as the temperature will be in the range of 1 to 3 C. Where snow accumulates it could reach depths of 5 to 15 cms, and all hills will definitely see 10-20 cms. The western, southwestern and south central counties may see more showery precipitation with brief sunny intervals, but winds will be equally strong -- all regions will see NNE backing to NNW winds 25-45 mph with some higher gusts in exposed western locations. Passing showers of hail or snow could become thundery in the west.

TUESDAY NIGHT and WEDNESDAY will continue very unsettled and cold with further heavy falls of wet snow, mixed in a few low-elevation locations with rain or hail. There could be further snowfalls of 10 cms in places. Temperatures will hover near zero C at night and will drop to -2 C if it clears for any length of time, and daytime highs will be 2-4 C. Winds will continue to howl from the NNW at 30-50 mph as the low responsible moves east at a snail's pace through northern England.

THURSDAY will be very cold for the first day of April and could feature more heavy snow showers although it will be gradually clearing through the day as winds back around somewhat to WNW 20-40 mph. The temperature range is likely to be about -1 C for a low and +5 C for a high.

FRIDAY will be overcast with periods of rain, sleety at times on high ground, brisk southerly winds, and temperatures in the chilly 4-7 C range (feeling very cold due to the damp and strong winds).

EASTER SATURDAY will be a cold, less showery day with some sunny intervals and less frequent showers, but these could be mixed wintry showers again, as it will actually turn a bit colder in a northwest flow.

EASTER SUNDAY is likely to be a cool, somewhat unsettled day leading to an interval of steady rain by later in the day or overnight to Easter Monday. Highs will be about 8-9 C after a rather frosty start to the day. By Monday it could be quite a bit milder in a strong SSW flow, but this will not last too long before colder air arrives again. The following week is being advertised as cool and dry with high pressure nearby to the northwest.

Sunday here was a rather bleak day with occasional rain, highs near 12 C and a chilly SW to W wind by afternoon.

Sorry this is the best I can do at this point, but don't shoot the messenger as they say ... :eek:

DOCARCH

Don't feel bad MT? That's a great forecast!

It would be a different story if this forecast was for June, July or August.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Monday 9:25 p.m.
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No major changes in the forecast, just some details on timing.

The low is currently around Laois heading for Dublin at a snail's pace, in fact you could probably keep up with it on foot. There's a band of rather heavy rain developing along the leading edge of the colder air and this could become thundery at times overnight as it edges towards Dublin and the Wicklow mountains. It could take most of Tuesday morning to expel the remnants of mild air from the southeast as the low plods or perhaps I should say swims east across the Irish Sea at the same very slow pace.

However, note that the colder air will wrap around this low and the southern feature entering France will move much more quickly northeast to energize the Irish Sea low which will then become the main centre of the complex disturbance. This will have the effect of throwing copious amounts of moisture back to the west across Ulster and this will rotate through Ireland in a cyclonic direction tomorrow. By about 10:00 temperatures will have fallen off everywhere on land in the eastern counties and the more wintry phase of this storm can begin (it already has in the western half of Ireland, of course).

So those are some of the timing details, but otherwise the forecast is generally holding together and I would look for some rather heavy falls of wet snow in Ulster and inland Leinster as well as on higher ground further west and south. The heavier snow should develop late Tuesday and last into part of Wednesday.

It is quite windy and wet here, I thought I was going to lose my golf umbrella on a brief walk earlier, gusts to 50 mph have been reported. So in other words this is not the place to escape the stormy blast.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 30 March, 2010
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TODAY, cold rain will be widespread near sea level and mixed rain and snow will fall inland with some heavy accumulations of snow on hills mainly. Towards the end of the day there may be heavier snow in most of Ulster and Leinster, as well as scattered parts of Connacht and Munster mostly inland and well above sea level in those provinces. By evening some places could have 3-5 cms of snow on the ground.

Winds will be quite strong N to NW 30-45 mph in most western counties, and will be gradually increasing from WNW 10 mph to NNW 30 mph near the east coast as the low centre slowly pulls away towards north Wales.

Highs today will be quite low, if any sun breaks through briefly temperatures could pop up to about 5 C but otherwise it may stay in the 2-3 C range.

TONIGHT and WEDNESDAY will be the coldest and snowiest part of this period, as 5-10 cms accumulate over large parts of northern and eastern Ireland, and 2-5 cms more scattered over western and southern counties. Although the snow (and some hail or cold rain) will become more showery with brief sunny intervals possible, it could also come down quite hard with thunder added in, and winds will remain quite strong at NNW 30-50 mph, adding chill to the overnight lows near -1 C and highs near 4 C.

THURSDAY will become clear at times in the early morning with sharp frosts and icy sections; then the day will see a rapid increase of cloud and either a cold rain (likely in the southwest) or snow mixed with rain (likely in the southeast) with more showery precipitation further north. Lows of about -3 C will be followed by highs near 5 C.

GOOD FRIDAY will be a bit milder with periods of rain or sleet on hills, and highs of about 7 C.

EASTER SATURDAY will become partly cloudy with occasional mixed wintry showers likely, and highs near 7 C.

EASTER SUNDAY will be a somewhat less showery day with chance of a morning frost, followed by some wintry sunshine and slight risk of mixed showers, then followed late in the day by sleet turning to rain in SE winds.

MONDAY will see rising temperatures and rain, with the maximum reaching perhaps 12 C by late in the day. This system will bring strong winds and will continue well into Tuesday before colder air returns mid-week.

Monday here was windy with periods of rain and even a brief thunderstorm at about 3 p.m. local time. It feels very cold here as well with the temperatures in the 5-7 C range and 30-50 mph wind gusts.

Check the ongoing snowfall thread for more reports and forecasts from boards members ... and I will update if I can.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Tuesday, 9:40 p.m.
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Heavy wet snow likely to continue in central counties from north to south, mixing more with rain at lower elevations of the south central counties but turning to snow more frequently after midnight there. This band of snow is being blown around by NNW winds 25-45 mph.

Rain will probably turn to snow in the Dublin, Meath and Louth region around midnight as somewhat colder air and stronger winds develop (N 30-50 mph). Overnight, expect some 5-10 cm accumulations in these counties, mainly a little higher than 100m and inland but possibly out to the coast by morning.

Western counties will remain very windy and cold with scattered showers of rain at low elevations, hail or snow at higher elevations. Some very strong gusts will affect Donegal, Mayo and Sligo at times, spreading to Galway, with peak gusts near 65 mph.

Otherwise, forecast remains as before, expect it to stay very blustery and locally snowy on Wednesday with the sun making more frequent appearances in the west, but with isolated thundery showers of hail and snow quite possible.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 31 March, 2010
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"In like a lamb, out like a lion" indeed.

TODAY will be very windy and cold with some additional light snow at times in eastern counties giving perhaps an additional cm or two, and mixed wintry showers elsewhere, despite a few longer sunny intervals in the west. Winds will be the big factor, NW 35-60 mph in exposed locations, and 20-40 mph elsewhere. Highs will only reach 2-4 C in some parts, and 6-8 C in the southwest. It will certainly feel much colder in the wind. Watch for icy or slushy sections on roads in central counties and higher elevations elsewhere.

TONIGHT will continue quite breezy and very cold, but with a gradual reduction in both wind speed and the extent of showers (which will be mostly snow where they occur). Lows will be -3 to +2 C and there may be some sharp frost and icy sections on roads.

THURSDAY will see increasing cloud and intervals of sleety rain spreading in from the west around mid-day, although some eastern counties could be mostly dry for the day. Highs will be about 6-7 C.

GOOD FRIDAY will bring periods of rain or sleet, mixing with snow on higher hills in the northwest especially, and a temperature range of about 2 to 6 C. Strong SE winds will back to NE then N by late in the day.

EASTER SATURDAY will be windy and cold with morning rain or sleet, and some snow on higher ground, then some afternoon clearing in a strong NW wind flow 30-50 mph, passing showers of sleet or hail likely near the west coast.

EASTER SUNDAY will probably start with a sharp frost and the day should be bright but cold, then with increasing cloud late in the day there could be a period of evening sleet turning to rain as it warms up for Monday. The Sunday highs will be 7-9 C after morning lows near -2 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY are looking milder with intervals of rain. The models seem to have shifted in this last run, and have introduced a milder southerly flow for several days. We'll have to wait and see if this holds on later runs as previously a cold NW flow was advertised.

Around here, Tuesday (30th) was a breezy, cool day with some light showers by afternoon and highs only 7 or 8 C.

Watch for updates and consult the snow thread for additional information.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Wednesday 7:45 pm
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So how's summer time working out so far?

The very strong winds should die out gradually overnight, as will the scattered heavy hail or snow showers, some with thunder. There's some rather intense activity at present in parts of Waterford, Mayo and Sligo, also Donegal. These showers are moving southeast at a rapid pace, but should tend to die off after about 10 p.m., however, a new batch could form over the Mayo coast around then and move through the northwest towards midnight before also dying out later on.

Otherwise, the forecast seems about the same although that tentative warm spell idea on the models last night has been crushed, it's back to a brief rainy near-normal spell then colder, dry weather on the 12z model runs.

Having a rather blah day here with 70% cloud cover and a hint of shower development in that. Felt quite cold out at 1030, probably about 7 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 1 April, 2010
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TODAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks in the north mostly, with showers already spreading into the south, sleet or snow on higher terrain, just a cold rain lower down. There may be a break in this showery activity mid-day before heavier showers develop and move in, turning to a steady rain in the southwest. It will be slightly milder but still rather cold, highs will reach about 7 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with periods of rain, mixing with sleet or snow on high ground, and increasingly strong SE winds 10-20 mph at first reaching 20-40 mph by morning. Lows will be 2-4 C.

GOOD FRIDAY will bring periods of rain or sleet, mixing with snow on higher hills in the northwest especially, and a high of about 6 C. Strong SE winds at 30-45 mph will back to NE then N by late in the day at similar speeds. Rainfalls will be 15-25 mms in many areas.

EASTER SATURDAY will be windy and cold with morning rain or sleet, and some snow on higher ground, then some afternoon clearing in a strong NW wind flow 30-50 mph, passing showers of sleet or hail likely near the west coast. The best sunny breaks will probably be late afternoon and evening.

EASTER SUNDAY will probably start with a sharp frost and the day should be bright but cold, then with increasing cloud late in the day there could be a period of evening sleet turning to rain as it warms up for Monday. The Sunday highs will be 7-9 C after morning lows near -2 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY are looking milder with intervals of rain, with strong S to SW winds developing, and highs near 12 C. After that system moves through, it will gradually turn cooler again with showers mid-week and a drying trend later in the week.

Wednesday 31st here was a cool, breezy day with gradually clearing skies, and highs only 7-8 C. It is quite close to freezing outside now at 11 p.m.

Not

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Thursday, 1 April, 2010
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TODAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks in the north mostly, with showers already spreading into the south, sleet or snow on higher terrain, just a cold rain lower down. There may be a break in this showery activity mid-day before heavier showers develop and move in, turning to a steady rain in the southwest. It will be slightly milder but still rather cold, highs will reach about 7 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with periods of rain, mixing with sleet or snow on high ground, and increasingly strong SE winds 10-20 mph at first reaching 20-40 mph by morning. Lows will be 2-4 C.

GOOD FRIDAY will bring periods of rain or sleet, mixing with snow on higher hills in the northwest especially, and a high of about 6 C. Strong SE winds at 30-45 mph will back to NE then N by late in the day at similar speeds. Rainfalls will be 15-25 mms in many areas.

EASTER SATURDAY will be windy and cold with morning rain or sleet, and some snow on higher ground, then some afternoon clearing in a strong NW wind flow 30-50 mph, passing showers of sleet or hail likely near the west coast. The best sunny breaks will probably be late afternoon and evening.

EASTER SUNDAY will probably start with a sharp frost and the day should be bright but cold, then with increasing cloud late in the day there could be a period of evening sleet turning to rain as it warms up for Monday. The Sunday highs will be 7-9 C after morning lows near -2 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY are looking milder with intervals of rain, with strong S to SW winds developing, and highs near 12 C. After that system moves through, it will gradually turn cooler again with showers mid-week and a drying trend later in the week.

Wednesday 31st here was a cool, breezy day with gradually clearing skies, and highs only 7-8 C. It is quite close to freezing outside now at 11 p.m.

TODAY ...cold rain lower down... ...showery activity... ...heavier showers develop... ...steady rain...

TONIGHT ...periods of rain...

GOOD FRIDAY ...periods of rain...

EASTER SATURDAY ...morning rain... ...passing showers...

EASTER SUNDAY ...turning to rain...

MONDAY and TUESDAY ...intervals of rain...

...showers mid-week...

Rain then so...
What a mouldy miserable wet country to live in. I really get fed up of never being able to rely on dry weather for more than 20 minutes at any time :mad:

Roll on
...drying trend later in the week...:)

H2UMrsRobinson

I hear you Not...

I have to wring myself out when I get to work and then again when I get home...I know we haven't had much rain lately and the country could do with a good watering, would be nice if it did it while I was sleeping though.

It seems that once it starts raining it never stops...here's to a wet April.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 2 April, 2010
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TODAY will be mostly cloudy with periods of rain slowly spreading northeast, with a rather chilly SE wind at 15-30 mph. Highs will be about 8 C. The rain could be sleety or change to snow at times over higher terrain.

TONIGHT will bring stronger SE to E winds, backing to NE 20-35 mph, and more rain, mixing with sleet over hills. Lows will be about 2-4 C.

SATURDAY will bring cold northerly winds and wintry showers as the rain begins to mix with hail and snow at times. Some western hills could see 3-5 cms of new snow. But lower down, it will likely be hail once the rain ends. The highs will be no better than 6-8 C but some sunshine could develop by late in the day. Winds will be NNW 30-50 mph fading to NW 20-35 mph.

EASTER SUNDAY will have a cold, in places frosty, start with clear intervals to start. Cloud will be on the increase by afternoon in the east, and from mid-morning in the west. Rain will follow but may not reach the east until late in the day. Winds will be rather light at first, then SSW 15-30 mph when the rain arrives. Lows will be near -2 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

MONDAY will be milder with strong south to southwest winds, 30-50 mph, and periods of rain, heavy at times. Highs will reach 12 C.

TUESDAY will be mild and showery with highs again near 12 C.

The rest of the week will be cooler, although not too cold, and at first it will be cloudy mid-week with some drizzly light rain, however, eventually it should clear and turn fairly pleasant by later in the week. Highs should be around 10 or 11 C by then.

Meanwhile, Thursday here was a cloudy, cool day with blustery showers, and highs only 7-8 C.

pauldry

Raining heavy at the mo. And Blustery.

A lot of rain in the Easter weekend Forecast however....

After April 8th it looks drier at present........(the at present being the important bit):)

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 3 April, 2010
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TODAY, eastern counties could start off dry if rather cloudy, with some light showers developing, turning heavier by afternoon. Western counties will start with periods of rain, in a strengthening northerly wind reaching 25-45 mph by mid-day. This rain will become showery with some hail possible, and central counties could see thundery showers with hail or local brief snowfalls. The winds in eastern counties will also pick up gradually to NNE 15-30 mph. Highs today will be 6-8 C in most places, but could reach 10 C in Carlow and Kilkenny.

TONIGHT will see the showers turning more wintry at first, followed by clearing and lighter NW winds at about 15 mph. Lows will reach -2 C in some places inland and no better than 2 C in general. Some frost and icy patches on roads could develop by sunrise.

EASTER SUNDAY will start out bright and cold. Clouds will increase rapidly in the morning in the southwest and by mid-day elsewhere. Rain will follow, reaching the southwest mid-day and other counties by afternoon or early evening. Winds will back to southerly and increase by evening to 20-40 mph. Mid-day temperatures will be around 6-7 C but it could keep rising to reach about 10 C in the evening.

MONDAY will be windy and wet with 25-40 mms of rain possible in a strong SSW wind flow (30-50 mph) and highs near 12 C.

TUESDAY will see continued showers, a further 5-10 mms of rain, then some clearing, and highs again near 12 C; winds will drop to moderate SW the becoming W at 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY is likely to bring low cloud, drizzle or fog, and late clearing in a slack northerly flow. It will turn a bit cooler again with highs near 7 C.

From THURSDAY to about SATURDAY there will be a welcome dry spell with sunshine and highs of about 10-11 C, as well as light rural frosts. This spell seems destined to end gradually with a return to cool northerly winds as the high builds up over Ireland then moves west into the mid-Atlantic.

There is an indication of some very cold air that could bring snow showers again, in about two weeks. This is of course highly speculative, but something to keep an eye on.

Good Friday here was quite a dismal day with strong SE winds gusting to almost 60 mph by afternoon, periods of heavy rain later, and chilly temperatures; the high was about 9 C but it felt more like 2 C in the gale force winds. At times it was hard to stay on one's feet out there, and we were lucky to avoid tree damage locally as well as keeping the power on.

M.T. Cranium

Easter Sunday, 4 April 2010
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TODAY will start out bright and quite cool, with a few brief passing showers of hail or rain spreading from Connacht towards the central and eastern counties. These will be hit or miss and not very heavy. The sun may be out for a while before fading behind rapidly advancing cloud, and by evening a strong SSW wind will be setting in, with rain hitting the west coast. Mid-day temperatures will be around 7 or 8 C, but if it drops at all this evening it will soon begin to rise to higher values. Anyone thinking of climbing should bear in mind snow may still be deep near some summits and the inclement weather could close in very rapidly after mid-afternoon.

TONIGHT will be windy with periods of rain spreading rather gradually from west to east accompanied by SSW winds 20-40 mph, and temperatures steady in the 8-10 C range.

MONDAY will continue windy and wet. There may be as much as 30-40 mms of rain in total by evening, and winds will be SSW 30-55 mph, stronger gusts possible near the west coast. Highs will be 11-13 C.

TUESDAY will see the rain becoming more showery and eventually ending from west to east late in the day. A further 10-15 mms could fall, but winds will be less strong by mid-day and should become more westerly at 10-20 mph eventually. The day will probably end up foggy with all the recent rain. Highs will be 10-12 C.

WEDNESDAY will be mostly cloudy, with morning mist and drizzle, but some clearing away from the Atlantic coasts by afternoon. Highs will be near 9 C.

THURSDAY will be a dry day but there may still be a considerable amount of cloud in a light SE to E wind flow, with drizzle possible on exposed coasts. Sunshine would be more likely in Connacht. Highs will be near 10 C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY will stay mostly dry in the same partly to mostly cloudy southeast flow, with temperatures likely to stall in the 9-11 C range.

The longer term outlook is for rather chilly east winds to strengthen for a while, then relent to milder southeast winds later in the following week. It looks like a rather blah weather pattern that could become wet again eventually.

This past Saturday here in Vancouver was a partly cloudy to overcast day, nowhere near as windy as Friday but still a bit breezy and cool. Now it's raining again at 10 p.m. and another storm is approaching the coast. The high was about 9 or 10 C.

I hope you all have a very happy Easter.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 5 April, 2010
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TODAY, one batch of rain has moved through the southwest and will affect mostly Connacht and Ulster this morning. The south may see some breaks in the overcast before heavier rain eventually arrives. This too will be heaviest in western counties this afternoon and evening. In other words, Dublin and Wicklow could see only a little rain until overnight. Amounts in the west will keep mounting up (15 mms have fallen already) to reach 30-50 mms. Rainfall further east will only be 5-15 mms. Winds today will be fairly gusty, SSW 25 to 45 mph (gusts to 60 mph in coastal Mayo and Donegal, as well as on any higher summits). Highs today will be near 12 C.

TONIGHT more heavy rain will continue, gradually spreading across Ulster and Leinster while it eventually turns misty or foggy further west. Winds will tend to drop off when that happens. Lows will stay well up around 7-9 C.

TUESDAY will probably start foggy then brighten gradually with the rain tapering to showers and then scattered drizzle. Winds will become more westerly and reach 15-20 mph. Highs will again be near 12 C.

WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy with a morning low near 3 C, some dense fog in places, and isolated frost. The day should be variable with some brief showers, heavier in Connacht (but only 3-5 mms even there) and highs near 9 C.

THURSDAY should be a fine day in most areas but some places could hold on to low cloud at times. The morning will be frosty in rural areas, lows of -2 to +2 C, and then highs should reach 10-11 C. Winds will be light SW at first then almost calm.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will be dry days also with some sunshine mainly in the west and northwest, as light E-SE winds bring low cloud and drizzle to some south and east coast locations. The temperature range will continue around the same as Thursday.

The longer range outlook is for the east to southeast flow to strengthen somewhat. It may then become a bit milder but less settled with intervals of light rain returning to the mix, although it doesn't look like a very wet pattern.

Meanwhile, for my location, Easter Sunday was a bright and rather cool day with high cloud spreading over, eventually bringing light rain which is falling now at 10:30 pm. The high was about 11 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 6 April, 2010
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TODAY, the heaviest rain has ended in the west, but will continue for some part of the morning in central counties and into most of Ulster and north of Dublin in Leinster. The southeast may escape with about 5-10 mms but in the zone outlined above, expect a further 15-20 mms. Some partial clearing may follow with fog drifting inland from the west coast this afternoon, dissipating a few miles inland. Winds will remain SSW 20-40 mph with the rain, then drop off to W 10-20 mph later with the drying trend. Highs today will be generally around 12-13 C.

TONIGHT will see dense fog developing in quite a few locations, as winds drop further to W 8-15 mph. There could be some clear patches and these will see the coldest temperatures near 2 C but with persistent fog it should stay around 6 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud and possibly a few brief passing showers mostly in Connacht. Winds will continue westerly at about 10 to 20 mph (somewhat stronger in Mayo and Donegal). Highs will be 9-11 C.

THURSDAY is looking like a fine, partly to mostly sunny day although some coastal areas could be under low cloud or mist at times. Winds will be quite light from the west at first, dropping off to light and variable. The morning lows will range from -1 to +3 C and afternoon highs will be 10-12 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY are also looking fair with at least some sunshine, more in the west and northwest, but possibly some low cloud near the east and south coasts, as a light E to SE wind flow will develop. The temperature range from morning lows to afternoon highs will be about 2 to 12 C.

From Sunday on, probably well into the following week, the flow will remain southeasterly and there is likely to be about equal amounts of cloud and clear skies with that, as well as the chance of a few periods of drizzle, mist or light rain, although amounts are likely to be quite slight. Temperatures are probably going to drop slightly around Tuesday of next week before rising back to the 12-14 C range.

Much colder air is still being held in the mix around two weeks from now and so we can't really rule out one more return to wintry conditions, albeit briefly.

This past day (Easter Monday) here was a cloudy, rather cool day with a few light sprinkles of rain, not a measurable amount. The high was about 10 C.

Meanwhile, and I forgot to mention this earlier, the eastern and central parts of the U.S. and southern Ontario in Canada have been enjoying some very warm spring weather with temperatures more than 10 C deg above normal, which has resulted in highs well into the 20s and even near 30 C in a few spots. This is setting off some severe thunderstorms and that trend is on the increase for the next two days.

networks

m.t we always get that wicked cold blast of weather for the last two weeks of april,first two weeks of may,its known as scarbhian(spelling??) here,

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 7 April, 2010
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TODAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks, more frequent in the south and east, while some renewed shower activity will affect the north with light showers in a westerly wind flow 10-20 mph. Highs will be around 10 C.

TONIGHT will see some dense fog patches developing and local frost in low-lying valleys, and clear skies in some places. Lows will range from -2 to +3 C.

THURSDAY will be sunny with some patchy low cloud near west and south coasts, or even some fog drifting inland in a few spots. Where the sun breaks through it should reach 11-12 C. Winds will be light SW then variable only around 5-7 mph.

FRIDAY will be similar although winds will turn a bit more to the southeast, so expect a chilly start (lows near -1 C in some places) but a fairly rapid warmup to highs of about 12-13 C, with light SE winds.

SATURDAY will continue much the same with partly to mostly sunny skies and a temperature range from about 2 to 12 C, in light to moderate SE winds.

SUNDAY may bring somewhat more cloud and a more noticeable breeze of about 10-15 mph from the ESE, but temperatures will remain in the same range as previous days, and it may get a bit warmer in the west.

NEXT WEEK will continue to be dominated by a dry ridge and slight to moderate easterly winds, with some slight cooling expected mid-week followed by a slow return to the 12-14 C range. Longer range models are still showing some chance of a much colder spell in about two weeks.

Tuesday here was another rather cloudy day with passing showers, not much accumulation and highs near 11 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 8 April, 2010
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There's a very nice spell of weather coming up, something I rarely get to say in this thread ... let's hope it works out.

TODAY will feature hazy sunshine in the south, but it may remain mostly cloudy in the north at least through mid-day, and some drizzle may fall over higher ground that faces west. Winds will be fairly light in the south and only SW 10-15 mph in the north. Highs will range from 13-14 C inland south to about 11 C in parts of the north.

TONIGHT (and most of the next several nights) will be essentially clear but some locally dense fog is likely to form in valleys after midnight, and there could be scattered light frost in rural areas as well. Lows will vary from about -1 C inland to +4 C on south and east facing coasts.

FRIDAY will see more widespread sunshine after any morning fog or low cloud dissipates. Highs will be about 13 C in the east and south, to 15-16 C in the west and north. Winds will be light SE at 5-7 mph. Some fog is possible near or just offshore in the southeast.

SATURDAY will be similar, with highs reaching perhaps 15-17 C in the west and north (after a chilly morning start); winds will continue rather light from the SE at 8-12 mph.

SUNDAY will have somewhat stronger SE winds reaching 10-18 mph, strongest in the south and southeast. This could bring some low cloud or fog inland in a few places near those coasts, but otherwise the weather will stay about the same as the previous few days, quite warm for the west and northwest to about 17 C, and near 13 C in the east and south.

NEXT WEEK, there are indications that this easterly spell may develop a bit more cloud and not be quite as warm, and also that winds may turn a bit more to the ENE which will result in Ulster turning cooler but Munster turning a bit warmer near the coast especially. Otherwise, the mild, dry spell should continue with minor variations in temperature. The longer term models show some risk of a much colder spell by the end of next week.

Well for a change this year, you have much nicer weather than we do here; it has been cold and raining all day Wednesday, with temps about 8 C, and this is set to continue. Meanwhile, Ripley's believe it or not, the highs exceeded 90 F (32 C) in all the major east coast cities from DC through NYC to Boston on Wednesday; this warm spell is set to end with heavy rains late today (Thursday) but after a brief near-normal spell they look forward to more unseasonable warmth next week.

Not

I really like that forecast:) Not a mention of the r word in it anywhere :cool:

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 9 April, 2010
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Not much change in the forecast, although there is a slightly stronger cooling trend beyond Monday in this version ...

TODAY will bring hazy sunshine as clouds over northern districts gradually thin out by mid-day; there may be onshore low cloud and fog patches near the south and southeast coasts holding temperatures locally to 10-11 C, but most other places should be fine with highs in the 14-17 C range.

TONIGHT will be generally clear except for a few misty or foggy areas in the south. Lows will be generally 2-4 C but could fall to 0 C in some low-lying rural locations.

THE WEEKEND will continue about the same, fairly warm away from the south and east coasts which could have some low cloud, onshore sea breezes and somewhat lower temperatures. Otherwise, expect plenty of sunshine and highs of about 14-17 C. Winds will be generally SE 5-10 mph.

By MONDAY, winds will be turning more to the ENE at 10-15 mph. This will make the south coast somewhat warmer, while Ulster cools down near the coast at least. Highs in most areas will be 13-15 C.

From TUESDAY on, the current indications are for cooler conditions to develop in moderate ENE winds of 15-25 mph, and there will be variable amounts of cloud, more sun in the west, more risk of local showers in the east, as this cooler air arrives. The overnight lows will continue near or just above freezing but the daytime highs will be reduced to about 11-13 C.

We are still being teased with the prospect of much colder weather arriving some time about 10-15 days on. Meanwhile, we had quite an eventful weather day here on Thursday as a very strong front ripped through at 0300 to 0400, waking most of the city up with various wind-related noises as westerly gusts to 96 km/hr were reported. This front is already about 1200 kms east of here now, bringing a sharp temperature fall to the prairies. The eastern warm spell was ended late Thursday by showers and thunderstorms. They will warm again late in the weekend and into next week as this western low slows down and starts pumping up warmth again.

Joe Public

Your strong winds probably blew off many of your cherry blossoms!

M.T. Cranium

Some came down but the season was so early here that many of the blossoms had reached small leaf stage just before this windstorm hit.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 10 April, 2010
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TODAY will feature warm, dry weather with variable amounts of high cloud filtering the sunshine. Some south coast locations could see onshore low cloud and even fog, keeping temperatures close to 10 C locally, but otherwise most places should reach 14-17 C. Winds will be generally light southeasterly at 5-10 mph.

TONIGHT will be clear with fog patches developing inland, and lows in the range of 2-5 C for most, possibly as low as 0 C with slight frost in one or two low-lying areas.

SUNDAY will see the continuation of warm, dry weather with variable amounts of high cloud again, and possibly a slightly increased sea breeze pushing inland in the south and east, as the regional wind becomes SE 10-15 mph. Highs will once again reach 14-17 C except for those coastal areas exposed to a cooler sea breeze.

MONDAY, there will be a gradual shift in the wind to ENE 10-20 mph. This will increase the strength of the east coast sea breeze and bring cooler conditions to part of Ulster as well, while the south coast may actually warm up somewhat due to the land breeze direction. For most, changes won't be that noticeable with highs of 12-15 C, and partly cloudy skies.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will continue mostly dry but there will be an increase in cloud and a gradual drop in temperatures due to a stronger E-NE wind flow and cooler sourced air from the Baltic regions. This air mass will have some potential for brief showers although total rainfalls are likely to be quite slight in the trace to 2 mm range. Highs each day will be in the 9-12 C range and the morning lows will be just either side of the freezing point with some chance of frost.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY we will have to monitor the oncoming approach of even colder air which the current model run suggests will mix into this northeast flow as it backs around to N to NW again, but without arriving in full force, temperatures would remain around 10-12 C by day, in a partly cloudy to overcast flow with some light showers possible.

Meanwhile, we enjoyed a much nicer day here (than yesterday) on Friday, with sunny skies, some passing dry shower clouds that would have dropped some snow on nearby peaks, and still rather chilly with highs of 8 C. Winds were still noticeable but only 15-25 mph today (Friday that is).

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 11 April, 2010
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No real change from yesterday's forecast ... but I will give it a fresh new look in any case ...

TODAY will be warm and dry again with slightly cooler conditions near the south and east coasts. Winds will be light SE to E at 5-10 mph. There may be less high cloud dimming the sunshine today too, and highs could reach 18 to 20 C in the west and Midlands, 13-16 C in the south and east (10 C right along the south coast).

TONIGHT will be fair with a slight easterly breeze keeping temperatures above freezing for most places, lows will be 2-5 C.

MONDAY will become a few degrees cooler (except in the south) in variable cloud and a stronger E to NE breeze at 10-15 mph. Highs will range from 12 C north and east, to 16 or 17 C in the west and south.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will be considerably cooler with at least partial cloud cover most of the time, sometimes fully overcast, and occasionally with light drizzly showers developing, these more frequent in the north and east. Winds will increase to the range of 15-25 mph from the ENE. Highs will be around 10 C in the east and 12-14 C west; overnight lows will be close to freezing in rural areas and 2-4 C in larger towns and cities.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY will continue partly cloudy and rather cool, with longer clear intervals in the west. The temperature range will be similar, lows near 2 and highs near 13 C.

On Saturday we had a pleasant sunny day (although the air is now very full of pollen) with a fresh breeze and a high near 13 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 12 April, 2010
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TODAY will continue rather warm and dry although a cooler northeast wind will affect the east coast and parts of Ulster, so that highs there may drop several degrees from the weekend to about 12-14 C, while the rest of the country stays in the 15-18 C range. Skies will be somewhat more cloudy than yesterday as high and then mid-level cloud layers increase. Winds will become ENE 10-20 mph.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and rather chilly again, with lows in the range of 2-5 C for most places. There could be a touch of drizzle or fog in east coast locations.

TUESDAY will turn a few degrees cooler in most areas, as the east to northeast winds continue at 15-25 mph. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy and there could be spells of drizzle or mist. Highs will be generally 10-12 C in the east and 12-15 C in the west.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will probably improve slightly in terms of more sunshine but the cooler temperatures will remain. Overnight lows will be near the freezing point especially in rural areas, and daytime highs will be in the range of 11-13 C. Winds will continue mainly from the northeast at 10-20 mph.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY, with any luck the ridge of high pressure will return east and bring another pleasant weekend with partly to mostly sunny skies, and temperatures somewhat higher than during the week, with highs of 13-16 C possibly. Nights will stay rather chilly. This outcome will be threatened to a slight extent by colder air trying to cut through the ridge, but the indications are that it will find an easier way through well to the east of Ireland, through the North Sea into central Europe.

We enjoyed another sunny day here too on Sunday with a high of about 13 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 13 April, 2010
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TODAY will continue partly cloudy with longer intervals of hazy sunshine in the south and west, as cloud increases by afternoon in the north and east; some light drizzly rain may follow there. Highs will average 13-16 C in the west and south, and about 11-13 C in Ulster and coastal Leinster. Winds will be ENE 10-20 mph.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to clear in most areas, and rather chilly with lows between -1 and +3 C. Some fog patches are likely to develop and the cloud from earlier on will linger over northern counties as mist.

WEDNESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy and a bit cooler again with more widespread drizzle, although still remaining dry in parts of the south and southwest. Winds will be somewhat stronger at NE 15-25 mph and the highs will range from 11 to 14 C.

THURSDAY to SATURDAY, high pressure is expected to regain control and cloud amounts will fall back to allow at least partly sunny days, with longer intervals of sunshine in the south. Nights will be chilly with rural frost and fog patches. The temperature range will be typically from lows near zero or -1 C to highs of 12-15 C. (14-17 C possible by Saturday) ... SUNDAY may continue about the same in the south but with increasing cloud likely in the west and north, followed by light showers. Winds during this period will swing around from an easterly direction to light NW.

Meanwhile, Monday here was dry with hazy sunshine, increasing high cloud, and highs near 14 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 14 April, 2010
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TODAY will probably be the cloudiest day of the week in general, and even there a few sunny breaks are possible, as well as some very light drizzly rain across some parts of the north. Winds from the ENE at 15-25 mph will make it feel rather chilly, and highs today will be held down to 11-13 C in most areas, possibly 14 or 15 in the southwest.

TONIGHT will slowly clear again and it could get frosty as a result in some central rural parts of the country, with lows of zero to -2 C there, but around coastal districts, expect more like 2-4 C.

THURSDAY will be partly to mostly sunny again, and if any cloud lingers it should be confined to the inland north over higher ground. With very light northeast winds, it should feel warmer even if temperatures are only a bit higher at 13-15 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY are looking quite pleasant with mostly sunny skies, more frequent cloudy intervals in the far north, and a temperature range from about 1-3 C overnight to 13-16 C by day. Winds will continue quite light but from a west to northwest direction.

By SUNDAY there may be increasing high cloud and eventually mid-level cloud spreading across the north, with light rain by evening there. Otherwise it should remain dry and temperatures will stay in the same range as previous days.

MONDAY could bring more cloud and widespread showers, although mostly on the light side.

The weather here today (Tues 13th) was cloudy, rather warm with very light rain, in fact I walked for about half an hour and didn't get wet but it was raining all that time -- not drizzle either -- just the occasional raindrop. The air here is full of pollen and as a result I am full of allergy medication, but this too shall pass.

Will the volcanic cloud heading this way today have much effect on the weather ?

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 15 April, 2010
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part one -- about volcanic ash and dust -- if you're only after a forecast, skip this and read part two

The effects of volcanic dust or ash under these circumstances can be divided into two types. First, there is the direct effect of being able to see layers of suspended volcanic dust or ash probably at the height of middle to high cloud banks at your distance. Based on what I saw here from the Alaskan eruptions a while back, you'll perhaps be able to see rather dark layers of thin upper cloud if it's otherwise clear the next few days. These would not obscure the sun but might filter the sunshine to some extent. You might be able to see some "sun dog" or parhelia effects at times. The second scale of effects are regional and global climate change issues that play out over longer periods of time. Years with major dust veils and in some cases the following year or longer, can be cooler by 1-3 C degrees. Whether this is all due to reduced insolation or pattern changes through feedback, or both, is always a subject of dispute in climatology. My feeling is that it's a bit of each.

Meanwhile, when and where will people in Ireland see any direct evidence of this volcanic dust or ash aloft? It appears to be circulating around the current high from the direction of northern England at present, so Ulster might see more of this than say Kerry and Cork might. Eventually, as the flow becomes more directly northwest (from source in Iceland) by the weekend, the effects should increase and spread more evenly over all parts of Ireland.

Bearing all that in mind, I would still say to check with other sources as these are just my long-distance impressions of how the volcanic ash will play into the weather situation. With several days of fair weather likely, you may well see the effects quite soon in terms of those thin dark-hued layers that may look a little like dispersed smoke layers well aloft (18,000 feet was the elevation that applied when I saw them here). One effect that may be seen almost right away would be increased colour display in the sunrise and sunset for the next several days (and perhaps for many weeks to come).

When the cloud layers get lower from other causes, possibly around Sunday, the volcanic dust won't be visible but it's possible that it will become a thick enough outflow from Iceland that it might start to show up in surface layer observations affecting visibility and air quality (this would be a somewhat extreme but not inconceivable outcome). I've heard that in Norway there has already been some restriction on air flight due to the direct mechanical hazards of volcanic ash to aircraft. Added at 0855 -- can now see layers of volcanic ash streaming from NW across Shetland and I was reading on a news site that Scottish airports are closed for safety reasons already. From this point on I will hand over this file to the resident weather folk for two very basic reasons, one, they will have some clue, and two, I will be asleep. It wouldn't surprise me a lot to learn later that Belfast and then possibly Dublin are affected by this situation as the atmospheric flow in mid-levels is headed south and even southwest from where the ash is now mainly concentrated. As to how long this situation will continue from source, I am really just going by news reports there and I gather that there are no reliable predictions, however, this could continue for days or weeks, possibly at varying levels of intensity. I did read that the ash cloud was observed to be rising to 20,000 feet before spreading away from the source.

part two -- forecasts

TODAY will bring longer intervals of sunshine with some cloud as well as some suspended layers of volcanic ash most likely to be seen at first in Ulster as it approaches at high altitudes from the northeast. Surface winds will also be northeast at about 10-20 mph. Highs today should range from 11-13 C north and east, to 12-15 C south and west.

TONIGHT (and several following nights) will be mostly clear and quite chilly with local rural frost and lows to -2 C. Around Dublin and other coastal areas lows are likely to be 2-4 C in town and along the shoreline. Winds will drop off to very light, and some fog may develop in valleys.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will continue fair and pleasantly warm in the daytime, but there could be some noticeable volcanic ash layers looking like thin smoke or a blue-grey haze that resembles whiter cirrus otherwise. This could dim the sun to some extent, especially in the north where it may be thicker overhead. Highs will reach about 14-16 C except where light W-NW winds create a shallow sea breeze (12 C in this).

by SUNDAY we are now seeing indications that the cold air, mentioned on a number of occasions as a possible player, is going to punch through the ridge briefly and drop the temperatures to about 8 C with more substantial cloud, strong NW winds, and possibly a few rather chilly showers that could become wintry over high ground in the north. This period could also bring some volcanic dust concentrations that are higher than anything seen so far in this episode. I'm sure that you aviators out there will know about the risks involved with this.

The longer range pattern looks like it will return to the cool east-west ridge fairly soon after this cold day or two days (could last into Monday), and this should thin out the volcanic ash or dust factor considerably just mainly because it will be heading more due east from Iceland than before.

Let's party like it's 1783.

Well, no volcanic dust here, the Alaskan eruptions quieted down about a year ago (we did have some visible ash clouds here a few times in 2008). Today was a pleasant sunny day with a high near 14 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 16 April, 2010
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Nothing very new from me today on the volcanic ash situation, which must be all over the media in any case -- and there is a thread ongoing here in the weather forum. Anyone wanting my views on it should look back to yesterday's forecast thread. I will mention a couple of updated ideas about it in this forecast. That too is not very different from yesterday. The proposed cold spell Sunday-Monday is not looking necessarily any stronger, perhaps a bit weaker actually.

TODAY will feature some pleasant sunshine and with relatively clear skies you might get a chance to see the drifting layers of volcanic ash especially from Ulster which is closer to the rather steady-state flow across Scotland. From various parts of Ireland these layers are likely to look somewhat like suspended smog, look for a brownish-yellow tinge to some high cloud layers that usually look milky-white. Anyway, in the southwest these might not be visible at all (too far away) but if you aren't too concerned about the ash clouds, the actual weather will be fine -- highs should be 14-16 C with light northerly winds locally variable with sea breezes setting in.

TONIGHT will be relatively clear with patchy high cloud (some of it VA) and rather chilly lows in the 2-4 C range mainly. A few places could touch zero in east central counties.

SATURDAY will see increasing high cloud but the VA may be held up to the north by a temporary buckle in the jet stream towards Norway. It will remain dry and on the warm side with the slowly increasing upper cloud and a more steady SW breeze. Highs should reach 15-17 C.

SUNDAY will see a sharp fall in temperatures and the main part of any volcanic ash plume would be swinging closer to Ireland and could make a direct hit especially from Donegal to about Dublin. Skies will otherwise be variable with passing showers. It may get cold enough to turn rain to sleet, hail or snow over higher parts of Ulster. However in the southwest I think it will stay milder and the daytime temperature range will be 4-8 C in the north and 6-10 C in the south. Winds will become stronger, NW 20-40 mph.

Refer to other sources for impacts of this volcanic ash which could become noticeable even near the surface at times.

MONDAY will start cloudy with (hopefully) reducing impacts of the VA plume as it retreats back towards northern Scotland in a westerly flow. The weather will slowly improve and turn milder again. After a cold start (lows -2 to +2 C) and scattered sleety showers, it should warm up to 12-13 C with any further showers all rain, but there could be some clear intervals by afternoon too.

LATER NEXT WEEK, I see signs of another cold outbreak around Wednesday and given the way the models handled this weekend at 5-7 days, we can't rule out a similarly cold outbreak by then.

Well, this is getting a bit confusing trying to figure out how volcanoes will factor into the weather forecast, but that's the nature of this business (although when I say business, I mean pleasure) ... now as to my local weather, no volcanic ash to be seen, but sunny in the morning, cloudy with spits of rain by late afternoon, 14 C for the high.

Pangea

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Friday, 16 April, 2010
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SUNDAY will see a sharp fall in temperatures and the main part of any volcanic ash plume would be swinging closer to Ireland and could make a direct hit especially from Donegal to about Dublin.

It may get cold enough to turn rain to sleet, hail or snow over higher parts of Ulster.

Theres a dream forecast for the middle of april,
Volcanic ash and snow

M.T. Cranium

Hey, no one's complaining if that one busts, right?

Quite honestly, this VA situation could go anywhere from a three-day wonder to the biggest news story of 2010. But I suspect more like three-day wonder. We shall see ... people of earth, flee the scourge which is to come.

There is something vaguely medieval about this year, so far.

Elmo5

MT, you've been right about everything else on this thread, maybe I should start digging a bunker in the back garden

Graces7

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Hey, no one's complaining if that one busts, right?

Quite honestly, this VA situation could go anywhere from a three-day wonder to the biggest news story of 2010. But I suspect more like three-day wonder. We shall see ... people of earth, flee the scourge which is to come.

There is something vaguely medieval about this year, so far.

Yep; cathedral struck by lightning even....

Thankful I didn;t plant more peas and beans out yet as will have to bring them in yet again soon it seems....

Still a few spots of snow up here too.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 17 April, 2010
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TODAY will feature increasing cloud (mostly non-volcanic) from north to south, but it should stay rather warm and mostly dry until evening. Winds will slowly pick up a bit to SW 15-25 mph. Highs will reach 15-17 C.

TONIGHT will become chilly as winds switch to NW then all the way round to NNE by morning, at 15-25 mph with some higher gusts. A period of higher concentrations of volcanic ash or dust may develop with this, and otherwise expect some cloudy intervals and brief sleety showers with snow possible by morning on higher hills in the north. Lows will be about 1-3 C.

SUNDAY will be brighter after some murky cloud (some of it contaminated by volcanic ash) clears away, but some lingering drizzle or sleet could continue in parts of the east and north. Winds will be somewhat variable from NE to NW and some areas could have moderate ash problems if the Iceland volcano continues to erupt all weekend. Highs will only be 5-8 C in the north and about 9-10 C in the south.

MONDAY will have a frost in places to start, lows near -1 C, then variable cloud and some brief showers with a slight rise in temperature to about 12 C.

LATER in the week, I don't trust the models too much at present beyond 3-4 days because of this volcanic ash variable and also because they keep pulsing rather irregularly, so let's say the probabilities favour milder weather for a day or two then a second cold spell that could be even colder than Sunday-Monday, possibly giving a risk of snow. If the volcano situation remains steady-state there will be further periods of ash or dust affecting Ireland at times. Beyond about Friday, the models keep wanting to bring very cold air down past Iceland into the central Atlantic. This pattern looks somewhat suspect but also, with the feedback from cooling aloft, you might factor in that a more likely resting place for the very cold air is between Iceland and Ireland so that in fact, what looks like a very mild spell to follow could turn out to be a wet and chilly east-wind sort of event.

We had a lovely day here, on Friday 16th, with a high near 13 C.

Have a nice weekend and get those volcano goggles ready. :cool::cool:

owenc

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Saturday, 17 April, 2010
_________________________

TODAY will feature increasing cloud (mostly non-volcanic) from north to south, but it should stay rather warm and mostly dry until evening. Winds will slowly pick up a bit to SW 15-25 mph. Highs will reach 15-17 C.

TONIGHT will become chilly as winds switch to NW then all the way round to NNE by morning, at 15-25 mph with some higher gusts. A period of higher concentrations of volcanic ash or dust may develop with this, and otherwise expect some cloudy intervals and brief sleety showers with snow possible by morning on higher hills in the north. Lows will be about 1-3 C.

SUNDAY will be brighter after some murky cloud (some of it contaminated by volcanic ash) clears away, but some lingering drizzle or sleet could continue in parts of the east and north. Winds will be somewhat variable from NE to NW and some areas could have moderate ash problems if the Iceland volcano continues to erupt all weekend. Highs will only be 5-8 C in the north and about 9-10 C in the south.

MONDAY will have a frost in places to start, lows near -1 C, then variable cloud and some brief showers with a slight rise in temperature to about 12 C.

LATER in the week, I don't trust the models too much at present beyond 3-4 days because of this volcanic ash variable and also because they keep pulsing rather irregularly, so let's say the probabilities favour milder weather for a day or two then a second cold spell that could be even colder than Sunday-Monday, possibly giving a risk of snow. If the volcano situation remains steady-state there will be further periods of ash or dust affecting Ireland at times. Beyond about Friday, the models keep wanting to bring very cold air down past Iceland into the central Atlantic. This pattern looks somewhat suspect but also, with the feedback from cooling aloft, you might factor in that a more likely resting place for the very cold air is between Iceland and Ireland so that in fact, what looks like a very mild spell to follow could turn out to be a wet and chilly east-wind sort of event.

We had a lovely day here, on Friday 16th, with a high near 13 C.

Have a nice weekend and get those volcano goggles ready. :cool::cool:

oh yay snow again i see meto forecast snow and sleet for ni on wednesday night!

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 18 April, 2010
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TODAY will be colder in a light north to northeast airstream that sometimes backs to northwest near weak lines of showers. These showers could mix with hail or sleet over higher ground in the north. Highs will be 7-10 C north and 8-12 C south. Some sunshine may occur but there are pulses of rather opaque upper-level volcanic ash clouds likely by mid-day to evening too. Average rainfall amounts are not likely to exceed 2 mms. Winds will be generally rather light but could gust to 30 mph briefly near showers. Refer to other forum and external sources for guidance on the volcanic ash situation.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy to clear at times and a light frost may develop inland, with lows of -2 to +3 C across most of the country. Some light sleet or snow showers may continue for a while over Connacht.

MONDAY will see variable cloud and a few more showers, these mostly rain as it will be just a degree or two milder at 10-13 C. Winds will be NW 10-20 mph but variable.

TUESDAY will bring a secondary surge of colder air again, and possibly a new infusion of volcanic ash clouds too. The temperature range will be about 1 to 3 C for lows, to 9 or 10 C for highs, and skies will be cloudy with weak sunny intervals through dense high cloud layers. Some showers may develop and could become thundery with hail in Ulster and parts of other regions too.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY are likely to continue rather chilly with frequent cloudy intervals and occasional light showers that could still be wintry at times over high ground at least. The highest temperatures will be about 10 to 13 C. Light frosts may occur in some parts.

The longer range still looks very speculative or perhaps "dodgy" to me, when the 72-96h models can't really be trusted then the 120-168h panels are already "fantasy island" as they say (somewhere).

I spent all day indoors on Saturday and I think it rained most of that time but I haven't actually checked that out. It was about 13 C at lunch time. The very warm spell in eastern N America has now ended after about six or seven weeks and it looks considerably colder there now for several days.

Enjoy your Sunday and check out the volcanic thread for much more informed speculation about that aspect. (I hope)

Graces7

Thanks re the frost warnings.i

With tender young food crops out we need to know when to cover them.

ch750536

Was a hot day today, my location would have been about 16c I reckon, was in a valley though.

Nearest station reading 14c just now.

Northerly not kicked in at all, very light northerly, <5kmph in my unscientific opionion.

Not sure where the cold is going to come from, just have a feeling the warm is here to stay for a while. I came to this decision by looking at the sky & nothing more you understand. It just doesn't feel changeable.

owenc

ch750536 wrote: »

Was a hot day today, my location would have been about 16c I reckon, was in a valley though.

Nearest station reading 14c just now.

Northerly not kicked in at all, very light northerly, <5kmph in my unscientific opionion.

Not sure where the cold is going to come from, just have a feeling the warm is here to stay for a while. I came to this decision by looking at the sky & nothing more you understand. It just doesn't feel changeable.

well we only had a max of 7c here today and it is actually down to 5.7c here now and that is in clear skys with wall to wall sushine so i would assume there is cold air over me now anyway as if there wasnt i would be away up were you are.

ch750536

owenc wrote: »

well we only had a max of 7c here today and it is actually down to 5.7c here now and that is in clear skys with wall to wall sushine so i would assume there is cold air over me now anyway as if there wasnt i would be away up were you are.

Blimey. Thanks. We've all been in shorts & tee shirt all day.

http://www.irishwoodshop.com/weather/today.htm
High Temperature 18.3 °C at 15:57

Sorry for nose rubbing & all that.

M.T. Cranium

Will post an update shortly (or in shorts) but I think the colder air has pushed about halfway south now and is running out of energy to go further until it gets another push from behind. Perhaps the volcanic ash is getting into the atmospheric engines too.