Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 10 May, 2010
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TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy and cool, with a few showers mainly in Ulster but possibly spreading further south at times. Winds will become northerly at 15-25 mph adding a chill to daytime highs of only 9 to 13 C, warmer readings in the south.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with a few more showers, some becoming wintry over high ground in the north. In any longer clear intervals temperatures could drop as low as -2 C but generally lows will be 2-4 C.

TUESDAY will be quite a chilly day with further wintry showers possible in the north, cold rain showers further south and near sea level in the north. There won't be widespread heavy precipitation and some places could remain dry, if rather cloudy. Winds will continue northerly but may become locally variable, and highs will be 8 to 12 C from north to south. A few higher locations could stay as cold as 5 C.

WEDNESDAY will see a slight improvement with longer sunny intervals, less widespread showers, and temperatures rising a few degrees after another frosty start, as highs reach 12-14 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with showers turning to periods of light rain as winds swing into the WSW then back to NW with the passage of an occluded frontal system. The temperature range will be from lows of 3-6 C to highs of 12-14 C.

From about Friday to the following Monday, the weather is likely to remain rather cool and unsettled with small amounts of rain each day, and not a lot of sunshine in most places. There are signs of a major warming trend beyond that into the second half of May.

I've been thinking about a summer forecast, but I haven't seen any definite signs of any marked trends, so for now I'm going to say more than likely to be close to normal values. If I see any trends I may update this later. I don't think there has been enough volcanic dust to make a big difference to climate but the more conventional signs are not very strong indicators at this point. If this were a normal summer, it would be perhaps the best one since 2006.

The weather here on Sunday (9th) was sunny with cloudy periods with a high of about 15 C.

Not

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

If this were a normal summer, it would be perhaps the best one since 2006.

LOL if it were a normal Summer, then given the last three summers were abnormal washouts, it would definitely be the best one since 2006 !

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 11 May, 2010
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The dates 11 to 13 May were known in medieval Europe as the "ice saints days" because they had a reputation for being unusually cold. (source, H.H. Lamb, Climate, Past, Present and Future. By the way, the whole two-volume work is worth a look if you're able to find a copy, probably in a large library somewhere. It was written in the 1970s so it gives an account entirely free from discussions of AGW (except for one or two paragraphs on that possibility).

Anyway, this year will certainly qualify. TODAY will be unseasonably cool with the morning frost giving way to partly cloudy skies, a few showers over the north that could turn wintry over hills, and highs only 8 to 12 C from north to south. Winds today will be variable but generally northerly, although not always too strong.

TONIGHT will be another rather frosty night (of course the nights are getting so short now that these frosts dissipate before many people get up), with partly cloudy skies, still a few rather wintry showers about in the north mainly, and lows between -2 and +3 C in most places.

WEDNESDAY will see a slight improvement with highs reaching 13-14 C under partly cloudy skies, and winds mainly light NW backing to westerly.

THURSDAY will be a cloudy day; the overnight morning lows could be fairly low but cloud will move in suppressing the frost risk, then rain will arrive around mid-day and become showery, with winds WSW 15-30 mph veering to NW 20-35 mph. The typical temperature range will be from lows near 3 C to highs near 13 C.

FRIDAY and the WEEKEND are looking so-so, rather cool but only showery precipitation that may not hit all locations every day, so plenty of dry intervals for outdoor activity, highs in the 12-14 C range and slight frost risk but average lows around 3 or 4 C.

Following that, a slow warming trend is indicated, and temperatures could even get above normal at some point later this month. (gasp)

Meanwhile, we've had a very pleasant spell here with another mainly sunny day on Monday (10th) and highs near 17 C. There were some very severe storms in Oklahoma and Kansas today with a number of fatalities reported near Oklahoma City.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 12 May, 2010
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TODAY will be partly cloudy in general but more cloud will develop in Connacht and west Ulster and there will be some sleety showers in that region for part of the morning. Later in the day there is a slight risk of a shower further south, but amounts will be light if anything falls at all. Highs today will be 12-14 C. Winds will be fairly light, and the really good news is that the coldest weather is now apparently over.

TONIGHT will see some clearing in the east and south with a slight risk of frost just after midnight before cloud arrives from the northwest ahead of some sleet or rain (the sleet, possibly a brief interval of snow, would be falling mainly well above most populated areas around 400 m asl, but it could be seen briefly in Connacht closer to sea level). Lows will range from near zero C in the inland south and east to 4-6 C in Donegal as milder air is poised to arrive from the northwest after midnight.

THURSDAY will be a rather cool, damp day with low cloud, periods of rain, and moderate westerly winds. Highs will be 11-13 C.

FRIDAY will see some brighter intervals, brief showers, and moderate NW winds 15-30 mph, with lows near 3 C and highs near 13 C.

SATURDAY will feature increasing cloud and periods of rain developing later in the day, heavier in the north, and highs near 13 C after a rather chilly start. The wind will continue moderate from the west backing to southwest.

SUNDAY will see somewhat warmer weather arriving on southwest winds, with highs of 14-16 C, and some sunny intervals.

NEXT WEEK is now looking quite a bit warmer although there could be some showery intervals. The longer term models are showing real warmth late in the month. Let's hope they are right.

Meanwhile, where I live, the weather has been warm and dry for several days, and the high on Tuesday was near 18 C. There was not nearly as much severe weather as on Monday, but another system is threatening the same regions later today.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 13 May, 2010
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TODAY will be cloudy with drizzle or light rain, turning milder by afternoon, with some brighter intervals possible in the west by then. Highs will reach 14 C in the west and 11-12 C in the east, and winds will be moderate WSW 20-30 mph veering a bit to the WNW by afternoon.

TONIGHT will be cloudy and misty in the east, partly cloudy in the west, but well after midnight it may clear in some areas and turn quite frosty as a result. Lows will be -1 to +3 C. Fog may develop towards sunrise.

FRIDAY will be breezy with intervals of cloud and sunshine, and a few passing showers, some of them with hail and thunder. Highs will be 11-13 C, and winds WNW 20-40 mph.

SATURDAY will have a chilly start with local frost again, then clouds will increase through the morning and rain is likely in the northern half of the country by afternoon, eventually spreading further south by late in the day. Winds will be westerly 15-30 mph and highs will reach 14 C.

SUNDAY will start out misty or foggy with drizzle and some residual rain mainly in Ulster, then it should begin to brighten by afternoon with some warmer sunny intervals possible. Highs will reach 17 C in the inland south and 14 C elsewhere.

MONDAY will be misty at times with drizzle or fog near the west coast, brighter elsewhere by mid-day, and highs near 18 C.

The weather next week seems set to improve even further with settled, warm and dry weather later in the week.

That's about what we've had here for the past week, today was nice with a sea breeze keeping temperatures around 14 C here, 18 C further inland.

fryup

at last some REAL rain, not your gay sissy rain but proper rain thats great for the garden and growing veg

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 14 May, 2010
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TODAY will become brighter with some sunny intervals, but also considerable cloud that will produce some locally heavy showers, rather hit or miss, with strong westerly breezes (WNW backing to WSW later, 20-40 mph). Highs will be near 13 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and rather chilly with fog or mist developing, some local frost (slight) and lows of 2-5 C on average.

SATURDAY will have some brief sunny intervals in the morning then increasing cloud with rain or drizzle arriving mid-day in the west and spreading gradually across the country, with highs of about 14 C. Winds will be moderate SW at 15-30 mph.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with some hazy sunshine by afternoon in the south, after some morning rain or drizzle ends. Lows will be 7-9 C and highs 14-17 C.

MONDAY will also be cloudy with some hazy sunshine and rain or drizzle at times in the west, humid, with highs near 17 C.

The rest of next week is looking quite warm and humid in a moderate SW flow that could be largely dry in the southeast but likely damp and drizzly in the northwest, so if you're in central Ireland expect a bit of both conditions. Highs may be generally in the 17-19 C range but could break 20 C in the inland southeast.

Meanwhile, the weather here has continued very good for about the seventh day in a row with sunshine and a high of 18 C.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Friday, 5 p.m.
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Alert for heavy showers with thunder and hail in the Dublin region within the next hour.

glossy

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

UPDATE _ Friday, 5 p.m.
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Alert for heavy showers with thunder and hail in the Dublin region within the next hour.

thought as much,

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 15 May, 2010
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TODAY will start out partly cloudy with some decent sunny intervals in the south, then cloud will increase by mid-day and some light rain will move into Connacht and then Kerry and Cork by afternoon. Highs will be around 17 C in most areas, 14 C in the northwest and near the outer south coast where some mist or fog may develop as winds back to WSW 15-30 mph.

TONIGHT will remain cloudy and misty, milder than recent nights, with some light rain moving gradually further east. Lows will be in the 6-9 C range.

SUNDAY will be hazy with considerable low cloud, fog over hills, and some light rain at times, but also some brighter intervals developing in a westerly flow (10-20 mph). Highs will be 14-17 C.

MONDAY will also be hazy with considerable low cloud, drizzle or light rain mainly in western counties, and highs 16-18 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will bring gradual improvements as the mild, muggy southwest flow dries out due to higher pressures developing very close to the south coast of Ireland. This should lead to a sporadic increase in sunshine inland from coasts that may remain foggy, and even warmer temperatures near 20 C (inland). Nights will remain fairly mild at 7-10 C.

FRIDAY and NEXT WEEKEND could see the peak of this warm spell as high pressure moves across Ireland and redevelops to the north allowing winds to turn more southeasterly from the warmer land masses of the UK and France. This may allow inland and west coast temperatures to reach 21-23 C while the east and south coasts remain a bit cooler with local fog.

Meanwhile, we've now enjoyed a whole week of almost unbroken sunshine (and clear nights) with today's high (Friday) 21 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 16 May, 2010
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TODAY, light rain should soon clear away from the south and then most of eastern and southern Ireland will enjoy a sunny morning with increasing cloud spreading from the west, where it will start cloudy. This cloud will have some breaks and just one or two light showers possible, so for most, a reasonably dry day. Highs will reach 16-17 C except close to the west and north coasts where 14 C will be the highs.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy and with some clear intervals the lows may drop to 3-6 C with a slight ground frost developing in a few spots. There will be widespread mist and fog patches by morning.

MONDAY will bring increasing cloud again with rain or drizzle spreading into the west by late afternoon or evening in a muggy southwest flow, but further east the day may remain largely dry. Highs will reach 15 C in the west and about 18 C in the east and inland south.

TUESDAY will be a rather warm, close day with widespread low cloud, better chance of bright or even sunny intervals in the east, but light rain or drizzle at times in the west and south, as winds become SSW 10-20 mph. The typical temperature range will be from lows near 9 C to highs near 18 C but this range may be narrower near the Atlantic (11-14 C).

WEDNESDAY will be somewhat similar but with a drying trend as more frequent sunny intervals develop, and it will be quite warm away from the coasts, with highs inland near 20 C.

THURSDAY to SATURDAY currently looking warm and dry with light southeast winds so that east and south coast locations may be a few degrees cooler with fog banks near shore, but otherwise, hazy sunshine, very warm with highs inland and west in the 19-23 C range.

This warm spell may begin to add some additional cloud and a risk of a local thundershower by Sunday but the weather pattern will change gradually.

Today (Sat 15th) here was another lovely day with sunshine fading behind increasing high cloud, and warm daytime highs near 22 C.

Enjoy your Sunday, seems like a reasonable day for most areas.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 17 May, 2010
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TODAY will start out sunny or at least partly cloudy in the eastern half of Ireland but cloudy in the west. This cloud will contain some light rain or drizzle as well as fog drifting inland on a moderate SW wind of 10-20 mph. Some of the cloud and drizzle may appear further east eventually but this weather pattern is somewhat locked into different regions, so it may be a case of what you see is what you get for a day or two. Highs today will range from about 14 C near the west coast to 18-20 C in the east especially inland to the central counties.

TONIGHT will be misty or hazy and rather mild with drizzle continuing in the west at times. Lows will be 8-11 C.

TUESDAY will be cloudy with fewer sunny intervals in the east than today, and generally somewhat more rain that may become moderate at times in the west (giving 5-15 mms) as temperatures reach similar values to today, 14 to 18 C.

WEDNESDAY will also be cloudy, muggy and rather damp in the west but more hazy sunshine may return further east, and the typical temperature range will be from lows near 10 C to highs near 18 C (possibly 20 C inland).

THURSDAY will begin to see longer intervals of warm sunshine breaking through the murky low-level cloud and this may allow temperatures to reach 19 to 22 C in some eastern and central districts. The west coast is likely to see thinning fog and drizzle giving way to some afternoon brightness.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY are looking really warm and sunny at this point, with local sea breezes and drifting coastal fog banks mainly affecting outer headlands and offshore. For most, the highs will be in the 20-23 C range.

By SUNDAY there could be slightly more cloud around and a risk of a brief thundershower with winds more easterly, highs still close to 20 C.

NEXT WEEK is now looking just a bit cooler but high pressure is not going to disappear altogether, the flow will become more northerly as the high pressure redevelops to the west. This should mean near-average temperatures and rather dry weather continuing.

It's interesting that our day here on Sunday (16th) was dry and at least partly sunny through extensive high cloud because the computer models were showing the same sort of patchy moisture in a southwest flow that I'm seeing for eastern Ireland this week. It was about 19 C here for a high.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 18 May, 2010
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There has been remarkably little change in the models over the past 24 hours, so I have taken the liberty of more or less copying the last forecast.

TODAY will be cloudy with fewer sunny intervals in the east than Monday, and generally somewhat more rain that may become moderate at times in the west (giving 5-15 mms) as temperatures reach similar values to today, 14 near the south and west coast to 18 C in central and eastern counties, about 16 C for most of Ulster including Donegal. Winds today will be SSW 10 to 20 mph with some local variations due to sea breezes.

TONIGHT will continue mostly cloudy and muggy with a bit of additional light rain, lows near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will also be cloudy, muggy and rather damp in the west but more hazy sunshine may return further east, with highs near 18 C (possibly 20 C inland, but closer to 15 C west and south coasts). Winds will be fairly light southerly.

THURSDAY will begin to see longer intervals of warm sunshine breaking through the murky low-level cloud and this may allow temperatures to reach 19 to 22 C in some eastern and central districts. The west coast is likely to see thinning fog and drizzle giving way to some afternoon brightness with highs there around 16 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY are looking really warm and sunny at this point, with local sea breezes and drifting coastal fog banks mainly affecting outer headlands and offshore. For most, the highs will be in the 20-23 C range. The morning lows will be in the 7-10 C range.

By SUNDAY there could be slightly more cloud around and a risk of a brief thundershower with winds more easterly, highs still close to 20 C.

NEXT WEEK is now looking just a bit cooler but high pressure is not going to disappear altogether, the flow will become more northwesterly as the high pressure redevelops to the west. This should mean near-average temperatures, possibly still as high as 18 C, and rather dry weather continuing.

Meanwhile, the weather here on Monday became more cloudy by afternoon after a hazy, sunny morning, and as of 10:30 pm it was spitting rain and quite warm in a southerly breeze. The high on Monday was about 20 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 19 May, 2010
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TODAY will be mostly cloudy at first but expect the sun to burn through eventually except near the foggy west and south coasts. Another area of rain is moving in from the west but this one may be reduced to a few sprinkles or trace amounts by the time it comes ashore this afternoon. Eastern areas (once any morning drizzle clears east) should remain largely dry today. It will be warm and humid with highs 18-20 C east, 14-16 C south and west coasts, about 17 C in Ulster.

TONIGHT will be misty or foggy with a few light showers mainly in the southwest, but some hazy moonlight may be visible in the first half of the night (the moon sets around midnight). It will be very mild, with lows only falling to about 10-12 C.

THURSDAY will be similar to today but probably with stronger sunshine breaking through the early murky cloud, and quite warm with highs 19-22 C in the east and central regions, 15-17 C west coast (also near 19 C just a little distance inland there too). Some fog may drift into the south coast at times. Winds however will only be 5-10 mph.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY expect some summery warmth, some might even say heat as temperatures soar into the 22-24 C range inland, somewhat cooler near most coasts especially the southeast, south and outer west coasts. Winds will be very light, and sunshine may become almost unbroken except where low cloud or fog drift inland. Nights will remain very mild, 8-12 C. There is a very slight risk of an isolated thundershower by Sunday.

NEXT WEEK is starting to look like a continuation of the warm spell but humidity levels may fall off considerably as fresher air from an easterly source arrives, albeit without greatly cooling down. Highs next week may stay in the range of 18 to 21 C. Nights could be cooler though (6-9 C). Winds will become moderate SE to E. There's always the risk that in this sort of long-term warm easterly pattern, one day will develop more cloud and become cooler at least in Dublin and eastern counties, so don't hold me to every day being the same in this spell. Too far out to really call the variations now.

Speaking of variations, our weather has now changed considerably. Tuesday here was cloudy with a bit of evening sunshine, and we had about 10-15 mms of rain with a high only 16 C. Today (Wed) we are staring down the barrel of a strong Pacific storm that is expected here by evening. Winds could be gusting to 50 mph here by this time tomorrow (GMT) with driving rain and low-level mountain snowfall. :eek:

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 20 May, 2010
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TODAY will be warm and humid with hazy sunshine developing although some coastal areas will remain under low cloud and fog. Highs inland are likely to peak around 20-22 C with 15-17 C closer to the open coasts. Winds today will remain light southerly.

TONIGHT will be hazy to foggy and mild with lows of 8-12 C.

FRIDAY will be mainly sunny with fog near shore and light sea breezes, otherwise nearly calm and very warm (hot in some cases) with highs reaching 21-23 C, except 14-17 C coastal.

SATURDAY will be similar, with very warm sunshine and coastal fog banks with local sea breezes, highs generally 22-24 C but coastal areas 14-16 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny with the slight risk of a local thundershower in the south central counties, and warm again with highs generally 20-23 C. Sea breezes may be weak or absent in the west as a slight east wind develops.

MONDAY will remain rather warm but fresher as east to northeast winds develop, highs will be 18-21 C.

LATER next week, the trend will be towards more average temperatures in a generally dry northeast flow, but cloudiness may increase at times. Highs will begin to drop into the mid-teens especially in the north and east.

The weather here on Wednesday (19th) was sunny and quite warm (19-20 C) to mid-day, cloudy with some squally rain showers arriving late afternoon, then rather windy and cooler (near 10 C now at almost 11 p.m.). Offshore there were winds of 50-60 mph most of the day. Some of these stronger winds are moving inland now. Meanwhile, over in Oklahoma, there were several strong tornados today.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 21 May, 2010
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TODAY will start out with some fog or low cloud that will give way to warm sunshine in most places, but fog could linger near the coast. Inland, highs today will reach 22-25 C. Coastal temperatures may be closer to 16-18 C. Like yesterday, a brief afternoon shower with the odd rumble of thunder could develop in west-central inland districts.

TONIGHT will remain partly cloudy and mild with high humidity and fog developing especially near shorelines. Lows will be 11-13 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY will continue mostly dry and very warm (even hot) with sunshine at least part of each day (in some cases most of the day). There will also be the slight chance of a local thundershower. Highs will be around 22-24 C but cooler near the coasts. By Sunday there will be a slight increase in the strength of east coast sea breezes and a suppression of west coast sea breezes (meaning that Sunday could be warmer in places like Westport and Tralee than Saturday, unlike most of the country).

MONDAY, the warm spell will begin to break down from the northeast, but it should remain partly cloudy and warm across the south and west, with highs of 19-21 C. The north and east will see more cloud, a slight chance of showers, and highs near 15 to 17 C.

TUESDAY, this cooling process will probably continue with reinforcement of the cooler conditions in the north and east, so that highs there will be only 11-13 C in mostly cloudy and drizzly conditions, while further south and west it should remain dry, partly cloudy and 14-17 C.

Nights are not likely to be frosty next week; the ground will have warmed up considerably and the air mass will be quite cloudy. However, daytime temperatures may feel rather chilly in comparison to this week.

Where I'm situated, the weather last night (let's say from 07 to 12z of Thursday) was very windy and it turned a lot colder; today the wind calmed down but it stayed cloudy, with brief showers, and the high was barely 10 C (in contrast to an average near 20 C for the past two weeks). It isn't much cooler than that now at 10:45 pm. Expecting a slow warming trend for our (long) weekend.

I will try to update this if showers develop, and if it seems that I am not around maybe another forum member could post some ideas about it.

TequilaMockingBird

*cough*

C'mon MT!

TequilaMockingBird

Scarily accurate with the weather, and scarily on time...

Many thanks MT.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 22 May, 2010
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TODAY, morning low cloud and fog will soon improve to hazy sunshine and it will once again become very warm (hot in some parts) with highs inland 22 to 25 C. Winds will be very light with onshore sea breezes in most coastal areas keeping some low cloud and fog around with highs there about 16-18 C. There is a slight risk of a thundershower developing in south central counties around mid-afternoon.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy and unusually warm and humid, with lows only dropping to about 12-14 C in many areas, 8-10 C in a few clear spots. Fog will become widespread although mostly shallow ground fog.

SUNDAY will be the last really warm day but there may be more cloud around in Connacht with a somewhat more aggressive sea breeze developing as high pressure retreats to the south and splits (the other part heading towards Iceland). This will allow a weak northwest flow to develop and this could become the cause of some sporadic afternoon showers or thundershowers. However, the day will be fairly sunny in the south at least inland. Highs will be generally 20-23 C but perhaps closer to 17 C in Connacht and some other coastal parts of Ireland.

MONDAY will turn considerably cooler in Ulster and adjacent parts of Connacht and Leinster, but will stay reasonably warm further south. In the cooler part of Ireland, expect mostly cloudy skies, a few light showers, and winds turning to the NE at 15-25 mph, with highs near 13 C after morning lows near 8 C. In the milder south, expect partly cloudy weather with highs near 20 C after morning lows near 10 C, with low cloud and drizzle arriving in some parts by late afternoon (from the northeast).

TUESDAY will feature cooler air, variable cloudiness, and one or two light showers, with winds N 10-20 mph and highs in the range of 11 to 15 C from north to south. Sunshine may be more abundant in the southwest.

WEDNESDAY, current indications show some potential for periods of rain to develop on a frontal wave, as the northerly may retrogress further west and pivot around a developing low near the southeast coast. This would leave temperatures steady in the 10-12 C range with light to moderate rain on moderate northerly winds.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are looking a bit improved now in a slack but still rather cool westerly flow, highs near 16 C and morning lows 5-8 C. There would likely be some sunshine both days and brief showers too.

By NEXT WEEKEND, another warming trend appears possible. The first few days of June may become quite warm again.

Meanwhile, my version of Friday was partly cloudy morning, sunny afternoon, high near 15 C; it still feels rather cool out after all the warm weather earlier, but we're promised a warming trend for what is a long holiday weekend here.

Hope you enjoy the summer-like weather (but maybe not at the end of some south coast headland). :cool:

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 23 May, 2010
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TODAY will continue mostly sunny and very warm (hot for some) except for some incursion of cooler marine air into about the first 30-40 kms of the western counties due to a stronger sea breeze that may also set in weakly on other coasts. With that sea breeze may come some low cloud and fog with highs near 17 C. Otherwise, it could be around 24-25 C again today.

There is a slight risk of a thundershower developing in south central counties.

TONIGHT will become cloudy with widespread mist and fog in the north and east, with a slight northerly wind developing there as well. Lows will fall to about 7-9 C in the north and east; further south it should remain partly cloudy and still rather warm near 11 C.

MONDAY will find considerable cloud spreading slowly into the north and northeast with highs 14-17 C, and there could be some spotty drizzle. The south and southwest will remain warmer and partly sunny with highs near 21 C except closer to 18 C near the coast.

TUESDAY will become cooler everywhere with partly cloudy skies, some brief showers, and lows near 8 C, highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY is likely to become mostly cloudy with some threat of rain in the south, and drizzle further north. Lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY will bring variable cloud and some afternoon or evening showers with highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY will become a bit warmer again with southwest winds and highs in the 18-20 C range. This may persist into Sunday with an increasing risk of showers then.

Meanwhile, Saturday 22nd here was a rather cloudy day with a bit of rain at times in the afternoon (nothing measurable) and highs near 16 C.

Note -- the highest temperature in Ireland on Saturday was 25.2 C at Shannon, followed closely by 25.1 at Claremorris. These are (as far as I've noticed) the highest temperatures of the year so far.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 24 May, 2010
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TODAY will bring cooler conditions especially to counties north of Galway to Dublin, with marine cloud moving well inland there, and even a few light showers in parts of Ulster. Winds here will turn to the north 8-12 mph and temperatures will stabilize near 13 C. Further south, the warmer air mass will try to hold on for another day. It probably won't be as warm as the weekend but still quite warm at 21 C or so, with sunny intervals and increasing cloud late in the day.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast (more cloud north) with lows reaching 5-8 C in the north and 8-10 C in the south. There could be a few areas with patchy drizzle.

TUESDAY will be cloudy with some sunny intervals, more frequent in the southwest. Highs will be around 13 C in the north and east, 16 C in the west and 18 C in the south. There may be some drizzle at times in Ulster.

WEDNESDAY will be cloudy with some sunny breaks mostly in the north. There may be some occasional light rain in the southeast, and in parts of Ulster. Winds will become a bit stronger from the north to northeast, and highs will be only 12-14 C after a morning low of about 4-6 C.

THURSDAY will become overcast with showers, heavy in some parts, and rather chilly temperatures in the range of 8-13 C from lows to highs.

FRIDAY will become less overcast with rain breaking up to showers, as temperatures rise slightly towards 15-16 C.

NEXT WEEKEND is now looking quite warm again as a southwest flow returns. Highs should be around or above 20 C. This warmth may last through Monday the 31st and then some showers are indicated for June 1st.

Here, the weather on Sunday (23rd) was cloudy with some further light showers. It is staying rather cool and today's high was about 14 C.

loup

Hopefully the warming trend will appear for next weekend, that would be only fantastic after such a nice weekend. Still quite warm in Dublin today, the cloud has cleared and the sun appeared about 1pm.

df1985

still lovely out there today, just back from a round of golf in newcastle and i definately caught the sun today.bit pinkish brown.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 25 May, 2010
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TODAY will continue the gradual cooling trend although the south may still enjoy some sunny intervals and highs of 15-18 C. Further north, there will be a bit more cloud and cooler highs of 11-14 C, with patchy light showers developing mainly in Ulster.

TONIGHT will be chilly with ground frost possible well inland, partly cloudy skies in general, and lows 2-6 C.

WEDNESDAY, expect some increase in cloud around the southeast and northeast counties from two separate weak systems that could spread rain inland (it will be hovering nearby at best). This leaves the west central counties the most likely to stay dry and perhaps partly sunny, but it will be a rather chilly day with highs everywhere struggling to get past 12-14 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals, widespread showers, and highs of about 14 C. Winds will become stronger at NW 15-30 mph.

FRIDAY will become more settled for a while as a weak ridge develops, and with some sunshine the highs will reach 15-16 C.

SATURDAY will be cloudy with some afternoon sunshine developing after a bit of warm frontal rain or drizzle in the morning. Highs will be about 18 C.

SUNDAY-MONDAY will end the month on a warm note with some sunshine, southwest breezes and highs near 20 C, possibly a bit higher inland.

This warm spell may back off slightly then intensify with a stronger surge of warmth -- the very early indications for the distant "second weekend" in the forecast period would suggest some hope for another warm spell around then.

We had a bit of improvement here today (Monday that is) with some sunshine breaking through by afternoon and highs near 16 C. Strong storms were found across Nebraska and South Dakota, and heavy rain in North Dakota spreading into Manitoba. The eastern states and most of eastern Canada had a hot, sunny day although more cloud near NYC and DC.

There's even a developing (possible) subtropical storm near Bermuda.

km79

the yr.no website is showing a very wet day for sunday in galway area 27mm of rain:eek: none of the other sites seem to agree. do you see anything in the charts that would show this to be likely or not

M.T. Cranium

Forecasts have changed a bit, however I don't see any heavy rainfalls for Sunday. See below ...

Wednesday, 26 May, 2010
__________________________

TODAY will be rather cloudy and chilly in most places, with occasional light rain in Ulster spreading to parts of Leinster. The better chances of dry weather and any sunshine would be near the west coast. Highs will be generally only 12-14 C today.

TONIGHT will remain mostly cloudy and cool with lows of about 5-7 C. Any clearing would lead to even lower temperatures locally.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals, and some showers moving fairly quickly in a moderate NW wind 20-30 mph. Highs will be 13-15 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and a little warmer with highs near 17 C.

SATURDAY will be cloudy with some rain at times in the south especially, as low pressure moves past to the south. Highs will be 14-15 C.

SUNDAY will become partly cloudy or even sunny with somewhat higher temperatures, highs near 18 to 20 C.

MONDAY will also be a fairly dry, warm day with highs of 18-20 C.

NEXT WEEK is generally looking reasonably warm with high pressure becoming the dominant influence, and some easterly component to the winds by mid-week which could lead to warmer conditions in the west.

Meanwhile, Tuesday (25th) was another cloudy, rather cool day here with a bit of rain at times, and highs only around 14 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 27 May, 2010
________________________

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with brief sunny intervals and widespread showers, giving 3-6 mms on average; it will be cool and rather breezy too (WNW 15-30 mph) with highs generally 13-15 C.

TONIGHT will remain cloudy until well after midnight when some clearing is possible, lows will drop to 3-6 C with scattered ground frost possible in the inland north. Winds will drop off to light and variable.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with decent sunny intervals developing, and highs of about 14-16 C.

SATURDAY there is some chance of rain across the south although it may turn out to be patchy and somewhat on the light side except along the coast, meanwhile further north it will be brighter if still somewhat overcast and the sun may be out by late afternoon. Highs will range from 12-14 C in the rain near the south coast, to 15-17 C in some inland northern areas. Moderate east winds will accompany the rain, backing to northerly.

SUNDAY should see improvement to partly cloudy and then sunny weather with lows near 9 C and highs of 18 to 20 C.

MONDAY, the models are showing a rather wet day in a warm, humid southerly flow. This forecast could dry out closer to the time as the models may not be swelling the ridge of high pressure to its full extent (so keep your fingers crossed if you want a dry day, this outlook could improve) -- but on the current indications we'll say overcast and 17 C with occasional rain.

NEXT WEEK beyond this is looking warm and relatively dry, and there are some very warm days indicated throughout the following ten days on the long-range models, as high pressure builds nearby and then arches to the north to bring about a gradual easterly turn in the winds. Seems too good to be true, but we'll hope for the best.

The weather here on Wed 26th was basically crap, it was cool, wet and about 14 C for a high. So you're not missing much. More interesting weather can be found in the northeast U.S. where it was as hot as 97 F in southern New England earlier, but now a cold front dropping from north to south has created severe storms and dropped the temperature in some places from the 90s to the high 50s (in Fahrenheit), meanwhile Pakistan (see another thread on this forum) actually hit the 50s in Celsius -- now that's just too hot for man and Beast. :cool:

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 28 May, 2010
______________________

TODAY will be partly cloudy with decent sunny intervals in most areas, but also the risk of a brief shower (average amounts only 1-2 mms). Highs will reach 17 C on average, and winds will be moderate westerly backing to southerly by evening. Rain may begin late evening in the southwest.

TONIGHT will become wet with a period of rain bringing 5-8 mms to most areas. This will begin to taper off to drizzle in the west by morning, leading to fog after sunrise. Lows will be around 6-8 C. The rain may not begin in the east until almost sunrise.

SATURDAY, the rain will continue but the system is not too strong and should begin to break up by mid-day to brighter skies and eventually some late afternoon and evening sunshine. Highs will be about 14-16 C, winds may be a bit gusty at times when the east winds die out and fresh NW'ly breezes set in at 20-40 mph. This will be more of an issue in exposed coastal areas west and north.

SUNDAY will be a brighter day with sunny intervals, increasing cloud late in the day, and highs of 18-20 C.

MONDAY, there is still the uncertainty discussed yesterday about whether rain will actually develop; the different models seem to have enough of a spread to suggest that it may be confined to the west and north or it may even dry out enough to give everyone a fairly good day. In any case, it will be warm and humid with southerly breezes, highs near 19 C (possibly 21 C if more sun gets through) and expect rainfalls to be in the 5-10 mm range west but 1-3 mms east (and keep your fingers crossed, maybe even that would be on the high side).

LATER NEXT WEEK is looking really warm and pleasant again with another high building over Ireland, high temperatures could reach 22-24 C again.

Today (Thursday 27th) here was cloudy with the sun obscured by thick high cloud, fairly warm at 18 C, but rain has moved in this evening.

burger1979

MT - LATER NEXT WEEK is looking really warm and pleasant again with another high building over Ireland, high temperatures could reach 22-24 C again - so are we heading for a good bank holiday weekend then from your point of view? hard to give concrete evidence from this far out i know but...........go on get my heart racing (thinking of hitting the south coast for the weekend you see)

91011

The combination of these 2 phrases haven't rung true for a long time -

Warm Dry Sunny + Bank Holiday Weekend

Wouldn't it be absolutely great to get really good weather from Thursday 3rd through to the following Tuesday. (I like to extend my bank holiday:D)

df1985

91011 wrote: »

The combination of these 2 phrases haven't rung true for a long time -

Warm Dry Sunny + Bank Holiday Weekend

Wouldn't it be absolutely great to get really good weather from Thursday 3rd through to the following Tuesday. (I like to extend my bank holiday:D)

apart from last year which was a scorcher???

Mars Bar

df1985 wrote: »

apart from last year which was a scorcher???

Yeah last years was unreal. I refer to the weather that we had last Saturday at this time of the year as the "Ocean Race Weather".

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 29 May, 2010
________________________

I think it's a bit early to be making promises for the Bank holiday weekend, but the indications are fairly positive so far ... however, it's the kind of pattern where the models can be well off the mark in five to seven days (a slow but mobile progressive pattern, that is to say) ...

... here's what I feel more definite about ...

TODAY will be a case of slowly improving weather for most, as the rain is pretty much over already in western counties and should taper off soon in eastern counties (Ulster may hold on to rain longer, to mid-day). It won't totally clear once the rain is done, and there could be a brief residual shower to follow, but skies should brighten and the sun may be out by mid-afternoon (more likely evening in eastern counties). Highs will be around 14-16 C. As this morning's low moves across the north-central counties, watch for moderate east winds to diminish to almost calm, then swing around to WSW later NW 15-30 mph. Stronger gusts could develop near the west coast.

TONIGHT should be mainly dry and relatively calm with partly cloudy skies, some longer clear intervals, and lows 5-8 C.

SUNDAY will have a bright start, increasing cloud becoming quite a thick overcast in the west by evening, but further east a "watery sky" with the sun dimly visible. Spits of rain could begin by evening in the west. Highs will be generally 17-19 C and it will be a little more humid again.

MONDAY will be mostly cloudy with intervals of rain affecting mostly the western and northern counties. Warm and humid with moderate southerly breezes; some fog may develop near south coast. After mild morning lows of 7-10 C expect a high near 18 C (possibly 20 C in the southeast).

TUESDAY should see whatever rain develops coming to an early end, then slow clearing will allow enough sunshine to bring temperatures up to about 19 or 20 C. From then on, a rather warm, dry pattern evolves for the rest of the week. Highs could reach 22-24 C. There are no strong indications that this will break down to anything too dire, but the best of the weather may come before the weekend, let's just leave it at that for now and see how systems develop. There is not much eastward pressure on weather systems as everything over North America has stalled and actually has moved a little back to the west in terms of large-scale features. A cold front recently moved southwest through New York City and then Washington DC, and further west, the storm track is pretty much stuck from Nevada to Manitoba. Longer range trends look more blocked and all taken together, these are indicators for slow changes and somewhat warmer than average weather in western Europe.

Today here (Friday 28th) was cloudy with drizzle at times, in fact a rare "heavy drizzle" was noted at one point. The high was only about 15 C, but earlier it was actually snowing in Calgary where the normal high is about 20 C.

Well, I hope the rain moves out in time for your plans, but it was probably good to get a steady downpour for the gardens as it has been a dry month.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 30 May, 2010
_______________________

TODAY should remain dry in eastern counties at least until very late afternoon or evening. Western counties could see occasional rain, but this is moving in very slowly and the rain may not interfere with outdoor activities that much, except possibly in Kerry. Cloud, however, will spread rather steadily east and if there is some morning sunshine it will tend to become dimmed by mid-level cloud by early afternoon. Highs will range from 17-18 C east, to 15-17 C west.

TONIGHT will become misty or foggy with drizzle or light rain spreading further east although possibly in several weak waves. Lows will be quite mild at 9-12 deg C. Rainfall amounts may be in the 3-5 mm range.

MONDAY will continue overcast and humid with intermittent rain, rather light in the east, perhaps a bit heavier at times in the west. Highs will be about 17 or 18 C but it will be muggy. Rain may briefly become heavier late evening into the overnight.

TUESDAY the rain should end gradually from west to east in the early morning to mid-day then hazy sunshine may develop and it will stay quite warm, with lows near 10 C and highs of 19 or 20 C inland (17 C west coast).

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY are still looking dry and warm for most parts, although the more recent guidance suggests a chance that cloud and light rain will be lurking near the west coast most of the time so there could be intervals of drizzly low cloud in the west. Highs each day will be into the low 20s (21-23 C) inland east and central, to 18-19 C coastal and western counties.

The BANK HOLIDAY WEEKEND at this point looks to be a case of slowly deteriorating weather as low pressure slowly moves closer to the southwest. While this is not really carved in stone, the best guess at this point is probably to say some rain in the west by Saturday and considerable rain across the country by Monday, with temperatures starting out reasonably warm and sliding down to the mid-teens later. Perhaps this will yet improve as we are still a week away from that.

Meanwhile, what is not improving is my own local weather; today was quite overcast with steady light rain and temperatures barely into the low teens. In Alberta they had as much as 10 cms of snow near Calgary, and further east very heavy rains in Manitoba, but it's hot and sunny in the Great Lakes region.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 31 May, 2010
_______________________

TODAY will be mostly cloudy and rather warm with some hazy sunshine breaking through at times, also a few patches of light rain through the morning, followed by a somewhat more organized band of rain by late afternoon or evening. This will eventually give 5-10 mms of rain but it may hold off until quite late in the day. Highs will be 18-20 C.

TONIGHT will be foggy and mild with periods of rain, lows only 11-13 C. This rainfall will add a further 5-10 mms in the west but for the east this may be the whole event at 8-12 mms.

TUESDAY will start out cloudy with some light rain ending mid-morning in the east, while hazy sunshine gradually breaks through the overcast from west into central counties. By afternoon many areas should be sunny and the highs for the day will be 18-20 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY continues to look quite good for most regions with at least partial sunshine and reasonably warm temperatures reaching 19-22 C (the nights will be around 6-9 C). If there is any low cloud or drizzle this should be confined to a few intervals and locations near the west coast.

By SATURDAY there will be some increase in cloud but still fairly warm and dry with any showers well to the western side of the country, and highs of about 19-21 C. The rest of the Bank holiday weekend is looking somewhat unsettled although I think the latest guidance is a bit improved so that it should be no worse than variable cloud and isolated showers through Sunday and Monday. We'll see if this trend continues but at the moment I don't feel very confident of the model guidance for that period.

The weather here on Sunday (30th) was cloudy with a few brief showers by late afternoon with the high about 15 C. It was so mild here in February and March that there's a real feeling that time has stopped moving forward, the weather seems about the same now as it did then. Looks hot and humid for New York and Boston today, predicting highs near 34 C. Storms are moving into the Great Lakes from the upper Midwest. This front won't be dropping temperatures much, and it should stay very warm all week in the northeast U.S. with more of a cooling trend the following week.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 1 June, 2010
________________________

TODAY will start out cloudy but most of the rain is already over ... and gradually the sun should break through although some parts of the west and south coasts may stay foggy. Inland, highs may reach 19-21 C. Moderate westerly breezes will develop (10-20 mph).

TONIGHT will be misty or locally foggy with clear intervals well inland, and lows of about 4-7 C there, but 8-10 C closer to the south and west coasts.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy except for longer cloudy intervals in the west and south, where some drizzle could come and go. Highs will range from about 17 C in these coastal areas, to 20-22 C inland.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue much the same with hazy sunshine, rather warm days away from the west and south coasts, and highs reaching 21-23 C (inland). There may be some light rain at times by Friday afternoon in western counties.

For the Bank Holiday weekend, expect this pattern to break down gradually, Saturday should continue mainly warm and cloudy with rain at times, then Sunday and Monday will be partly cloudy with cooler temperatures and widespread showers, possibly heavy at times on Monday. Highs will be close to 20,18,16 for the three days. Nights should be reasonably mild near 8-9 C.

The weather here today (Monday 31st) was a bit improved over recent days, with a rather warm drizzly light rain in the morning, some brief sunny intervals by afternoon, and a high of about 19 C. Extreme heat seems to be building up over Texas and may become the big weather story in North America in coming days. Highs may exceed 40 C in places (but today was more like mid-30s).

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 2 June, 2010
_________________________

Just noticed that this thread is now a year old -- thanks for dropping in.

TODAY will bring back the warm, sunny weather for most regions, although there could be longer intervals of low cloud and associated drizzle near the west and south coasts. Hopefully this will stay mostly over the water and outer headlands. Otherwise, highs may reach 20-22 C with just light and variable winds.

TONIGHT will be hazy and locally foggy again with lows of 6-9 C for most places, 10-12 C where the moist marine air is present.

THURSDAY will be almost a repeat performance except that it may be even warmer thanks to a southeast wind of 5-10 mph, but that will also tend to bring in the cooler marine layers a few miles further inland on the south coast, so that one or two places may see a cooler day instead. For many inland areas the highs may reach 21-24 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with occasional light rain mostly over western counties, and it will be quite humid, with highs of about 20 C following a morning low of only 9-11 C.

SATURDAY will bring further showers but some sunny intervals, and it should stay rather warm with highs near 20 C.

SUNDAY will bring variable cloud and some locally heavy showers, but a more organized area of rain may arrive by afternoon in the west. Highs will be about 17 C in a fresher air mass of Atlantic origins, and there will be a rising westerly wind backing to southerly later.

MONDAY looks rather unsettled and could produce locally heavy showers, with highs only 14-17 C (although the morning will be mild, lows near 10 C). It probably won't be a day-long downpour so you may find some better intervals between the showers. Rainfalls from Sunday to late Monday may be in the 15-30 mm range.

The following week looks somewhat cooler than this week, and continuing rather unsettled. The week after that is advertised as warmer again, so the rough estimate for monthly temperature is around 0.5 to 1.0 C above average at this point.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday (1st June) here, we had a somewhat improved day with no rain until after sunset, a few sunny intervals, warm and humid (20 C). It has been raining a bit since 8 p.m. -- meanwhile, heat is building up over Texas and spreading to the north and northeast, and there are heavy storms tonight in Iowa and Missouri.

Something rather unusual on the maps at present -- a tropical cyclone over the Arabian Sea south of Oman which could graze the coast there and move towards southern Pakistan. This tropical "theatre" only gets 2-3 storms a year on average but this is already number two for them.

DOCARCH

Happy Birthday thread! Keep up the good work MT - it's appreciated.

Darwin

DOCARCH wrote: »

Happy Birthday thread! Keep up the good work MT - it's appreciated.

Second that!

paulhac

Great work M.T. and thanks for all your forecasts. Here's to another 12 months!

glossy

paulhac wrote: »

Great work M.T. and thanks for all your forecasts. Here's to another 12 months!

+ 1

Trogdor

Fantastic work over the last year MT! It's much appreciated:D

glimmerman123

Thanks M.T. for all of your hard work over the past year. Looking forward to another year of accurate forecasting. Thanks Mate. :)

Deep Easterly

One year old :eek:. Congratulaions! Thanks for all the daily forecasts and regular updates when the weather gets exciting!

M.Ts forecast from this day last year:

Tuesday, 2 June, 2009 _ 0545h
_________________________

TODAY will be another fabulous warm and sunny day almost everywhere in Ireland. Like yesterday, it will be a touch cooler close to the east and south coasts, and quite a bit cooler right at the waterfront and out over the nearby waters (which are about 12-14 C about now). This will result in highs generally reaching 23 to 26 C in most parts today, with the same gradual reduction to near 15 C at the seafront. In those cooler locations, some fog may form although right now, it seems rather sparse compared to yesterday.

This day last year was the warmest day of 2009 over many parts of the country. Birr & Claremorris reached 27.5c, while Galway reached 28.6c. My own personal high that day was 28.9c which was reach on two occasions in the late afternoon.

Here is how the charts looked on the day M.T.C's forecast thread was born:

Synoptic set up:



850's:


Sat shot:



Keep up the great work M.T!

greysides

I would like to add my name to the list of thanks. I've looked in for the forecast more mornings than not. It's much appreciated.

homolumo

greysides wrote: »

I would like to add my name to the list of thanks. I've looked in for the forecast more mornings than not. It's much appreciated.

ditto

Super-Rush

Well done MT. First thread i look at each day. Should be stickied IMO.

Deep Easterly

super-rush wrote: »

Should be stickied IMO.

I'll second that motion.

Trogdor

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I'll second that motion.

+1

Oh wait..i'm a mod..stickied:D

M.T. Cranium

Thanks very much, yes I wonder if we'll be talking about near 30 degC sunshine again this summer.