Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 13 June, 2010
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TODAY will be mostly cloudy with some showers this morning in parts of Ulster and Leinster, then a brief interval with some brighter skies will follow from west to east, before a more organized area of showers arrives for the mid-day to afternoon hours from northwest to southeast. This frontal band will perhaps set off one or two thundery showers in central counties. Rainfalls of 5-10 mms will be fairly general later today, and highs will reach about 17 C in freshening westerly winds of 20-30 mph by afternoon.

TONIGHT will continue showery and breezy as winds veer to NW 20-35 mph, with lows of about 10-12 C.

MONDAY will also be cloudy with brief sunny intervals, gusty northerly winds at 20-35 mph, and passing showers, heavier in Ulster than most other parts of Ireland. There should be somewhat of a clearing trend in the west by afternoon and evening. Highs will range from 14-16 C in Ulster, 15-17 in Connacht, to 16-18 in Leinster and 18-20 C in Munster except west coastal Kerry at 16-18 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with some longer sunny intervals developing, lows near 7 C and highs near 19 C. The northerly breeze will tend to die out from west to east during the day.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY should be a rather warm and dry period although there could be intervals of cloud and showers skirting the northeast coast at times by Friday. With longer intervals of sun, the highs will reach 21-23 C inland, 18-20 C near the north and east coasts. Overnight readings will be generally about 7-10 C.

This pleasant spell of weather does not look like breaking down quickly either.

Over here, we had a very fine Saturday with some warmth in the sun, a sort of elevated mist from the sea breeze, and a bracing temperature of about 19 or 20 C while it was 24-27 C further inland. Trying to warm up in the northeast U.S., not pushing into New England very easily, and once the warmth reaches there on Monday, a shot of cooler air will follow.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Sunday, 3:45 p.m.
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Counties from Louth down to Wicklow are getting a heavy rainfall of about 20 to 30 mms with some thunder embedded. In the unstable northwest flow behind this frontal trough, southeast Ireland could see some gusty hail showers and the situation is conducive for funnel clouds to form and possibly a weak localized tornado before this activity dies out around 9 p.m. -- not a high risk situation, but something to keep an eye on.

magicray

Just wanted to say thanks MT Cranium, the weather was just as you predicted for the wedding on Friday - we didnt see as much as a drop of rain - was a bit overcast but perfect for photos

df1985

the weatherman on rte was pratically giddy giving the forecast for the end of the week!

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 14 June, 2010
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TODAY will be mostly cloudy with brief sunny intervals more likely in the southwest. A few showers will develop later, but these may be rather drizzly and amounts will be generally slight. Winds will start NNW and turn more to the NE later, 10-20 mph. Highs will be about 16 C in the north and 19 C in the south.

TONIGHT will be cloudy at first, with clear intervals after midnight, leading to some light fog or mist. Lows will be in the 6-9 C range.

TUESDAY will bring some sunny intervals once the morning fog or low cloud dissipate, and light northeast winds. Highs will be 16-18 C north and east, 18-20 C west and south.

WEDNESDAY will be a mostly sunny day with some cloudy intervals in the northwest mostly. Highs will be 18-22 C after morning lows of 5-8 C.

THURSDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud and local showers could develop in a slack easterly flow. The highs will be near 21 C.

FRIDAY and next weekend are still looking dry and warm with highs in the low 20s and possibly in some cases mid-20s.

The models are hinting that this warm spell would end a few days later with a weak northerly and I think from my research that there may not be a lot of rain again until around the 25th.

Meanwhile, the weather here today (Sunday 13th) was cloudy to start, sunny later on with highs near 20 C. A cold front has just passed without any rain.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 15 June, 2010
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TODAY, some morning cloudiness will eventually break up to partly sunny skies, with highs reaching 20 C on average. The north may be closer to 17 C and there remains a very slight risk of a shower there. Winds today will be quite light and sea breezes will develop around most coastal regions.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to clear, and cool again, with lows of about 6 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy as well, with reasonable amounts of sunshine although some places could have long cloudy intervals. Winds will remain very light with local sea breezes; highs will be 19-21 C.

THURSDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sun with isolated showers developing probably well inland, highs reaching 20-22 C.

FRIDAY will be similar, with highs of about 20-22 C again; there may be a bit more sunshine in general.

THE WEEKEND is looking very good at this point, with partly cloudy to sunny conditions and warm temperatures in the 23-25 C range.

Today's weather here was sunny most of Monday (14th) although light showers developed in the evening. We have some rather cold air aloft but the high down here at sea level was 16 C.

secman

MT's forecast for the weekend is a much better prospect than what was forecast on RTE last night, they predicted a northerly flow keepings temps down @ 15 - 16 degrees !

My money is on MT ! ...............fingers crossed !

Well done MT keep up the good work.


secman

Sponge Bob

secman wrote: »

MT's forecast for the weekend is a much better prospect than what was forecast on RTE last night, they predicted a northerly flow keepings temps down @ 15 - 16 degrees !

That is the typical 'Dublin Forecast' you get from the glasnevin met and RTÉ.

It will probably be scorchio at the weekend in the west and southwest. glasnevin met and RTÉ also said it would be very wet on Thursday ( lots of dark cloud graphic) but MT predicts the thursday showers will be "well inland"...ie not in the west or southwest but more likely Dublin again.

I will plan my day, as ever, around MT and not the unprofessional Dublin Forecasts we get from the glasnevin met and RTÉ.

Squeaksoutloud

Yes I noticed Met Eireann had downgraded their forecast for the weekend. I'll be following the forecast here so here is hoping for a nice one as planning an outdoors weekend.

owenc

Sponge Bob wrote: »

That is the typical 'Dublin Forecast' you get from the glasnevin met and RTÉ.

It will probably be scorchio at the weekend in the west and southwest. glasnevin met and RTÉ also said it would be very wet on Thursday ( lots of dark cloud graphic) but MT predicts the thursday showers will be "well inland"...ie not in the west or southwest but more likely Dublin again.

I will plan my day, as ever, around MT and not the unprofessional Dublin Forecasts we get from the glasnevin met and RTÉ.

Don't forget my place i always get the warmest in ni, but i bet yeh the sea breeze will come again..:rolleyes:

pauldry

Yep Thursday looks a wet day, Met Eireann hv now upgraded weekend to 20 or 21c though todayfm said 24c!!!!!

Since the 6th April there has only been 77mm of rain in Sligo in about 70 days. Though there was 28mm in the first 5 days of April. Since the Monday (5th April) when there was over 20mm of rain we have not got over 8mm on any single day.

Some parts of the grass are now gone to sand or cracked soil although bizarrely enough other parts are grwing very well. Does anyone know why this could be?

Back to topic... Thursday wet and showery but weekend pleasant and warm and Ill be on the look out for the MT forecast Friday Morning:)

M.T. Cranium

Good morning, I am staying with the forecast idea from yesterday, while there may be a slight northerly flow on the weekend, it just looks to me as though a warm bubble of subtropical air will form very close to Ireland and slight windshifts will only affect coastal sea breeze directions; inland it should stay quite warm. I also tend to think that Thursday's moisture will be isolated and will form some locally heavy showers, while quite a few places may escape any rain there. Not that everyone wants to escape rain due to long-term dry conditions. Well, with all that in mind, the forecasts ...

Wednesday, 16 June, 2010
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TODAY will be partly cloudy with good periods of sunshine in most areas. Any cloud should be more or less mid-level to high-level, letting some sunshine through anyway. Highs will reach about 23 C inland from west to east, and sea breezes will drop readings to about 19 C.

TONIGHT will see some increase in cloud and it will be a bit milder, with lows generally 9-12 C.

THURSDAY will feature variable amounts of cloud, still some good sunny periods in some parts, and local showers possibly a brief heavy thundershower in one or two. The convergence of sea breezes could set off these showers so look for heavier rainfall amounts somewhat inland. Highs will reach about 23 C if there's enough sunshine, otherwise about 20 C.

FRIDAY will see more settled conditions again, just a very slight risk of a shower, and highs near 22 C on average.

THE WEEKEND should be very pleasant, I am not seeing much if any drop in temperature and some places could hit 22-24 C. Winds may be slightly more northerly but this will only cool off the north coast and perhaps allow a NE seabreeze to develop around coastal parts of Dublin. We'll revisit this of course closer to the time.

Also, this warm dry spell does not seem to have any imminent end in sight, on balance I would suggest it might break down around the 25th.

Today (Tuesday 15th) here was cloudy to start, with showers at times, then the sun was out by afternoon, and it remained quite cool, about 14 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 17 June, 2010
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TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with some sunny intervals, rather warm and close, with scattered showers developing, risk of a heavier thundershower in central counties (but only about 10% chance). Highs will range from 21-23 C inland and near 17 C west and north coasts due to onshore sea breezes.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with mist or fog developing towards dawn and lows near 10 C.

FRIDAY will be sunny with cloudy periods, and warm with highs near 22 C, slight risk of a brief shower well inland.

SATURDAY will also be sunny with cloudy periods and highs near 23 C, sea breezes cooling the coastal regions down to about 18-20 C.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals, still rather warm, slight risk of a shower developing, and highs similar to Saturday.

Next week is looking similar with relatively warm temperatures, little rain until about the end of the week possibly with heavier showers likely by 25th-26th.

Today in what we call "lotus land" around here, it was pleasant, cloudy for the most part, sunny after about 3 p.m., and a high of about 17 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 18 June, 2010
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TODAY, some very light rain may be observed moving south from Ulster but by mid-morning this should have dissipated further south and any residual cloud should also break up to sunny intervals, with highs of about 22-24 C inland and near 19 C around the coasts due to sea breezes and local mist or low cloud banks. If anything remains of the weak front mentioned above, it may be one or two brief showers further south by afternoon.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to clear but hazy with fog patches by morning, and lows of 8-12 C.

SATURDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sun and warm temperatures with highs of 22-24 C inland, near 20 C around the coasts. Winds will be light and variable, mostly onshore sea breezes. There will be the slight risk of a brief shower well inland again.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and warm with highs still around 22-24 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY should remain warm and largely dry with some increase in cloud and coastal fog or low cloud, mild nights and reasonably warm days in the 19-23 C range, and a slowly increasing risk of showers mainly in the west.

By THURSDAY and FRIDAY it may be more unsettled with heavier showers and temperatures near 20 C.

Today (Thursday 17th) here was a very cool, cloudy day with drizzle and highs only about 14 C. This is about as cool as we can expect at this time of year.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 19 June, 2010
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TODAY will be sunny and pleasantly warm once the morning chill wears off (and that should be around 0830 or so). Winds will be light northerly but more moderate (8-15 mph) near the coasts. Highs will be 19-23 C inland and near the south coast, 16-18 C near the north and east coasts, and 18-20 C near the west coast (although 21 C around Galway and other places on longer west coast bays and inlets). The sun will be scorching today due to low humidity and not much to shield from the rays, so take precautions.

TONIGHT will be another clear, cool night with lows falling briefly into the range of 5-8 C inland and suburban Dublin, 8-12 C coastal and Dublin city centre. The thing about these mid-June nights, they may get quite chilly but the sun is already up by 0500 and the chill has gone before many get out of bed especially on a weekend.

SUNDAY will be a warm, hazy but mainly sunny day with highs of about 23 C inland, 18-20 C near shore due to sea breezes all around the country; in the light gradient wind, the sea breezes will blow in from all directions.

MONDAY will see gradually increasing cloud and a bit more humidity, a light southerly gradient which may tend to cool off the southern coastal regions and bring in some low cloud there at times. Highs will be generally 22-24 C but could be 16-19 C near the south coast.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will see further sporadic increases in cloud cover and a very gradual development of showers or local thundershowers, heavier in the western counties at first, then scattered rather sporadically across the country, due to a weak disturbance drifting ever closer to Munster from the Atlantic. Highs each day will probably continue in the 21-23 c range and could be even higher in some inland and northeastern counties.

From research, I would say that around Friday and Saturday there may be more substantial rainfalls and a slight drop in temperatures through that period due to stronger low pressure developing nearby.

The past day here (Friday 18th) was more pleasant than the previous few, as clouds parted around 1030h and warm sunshine followed, highs were near 21 C. Still, it has been a cool six or seven weeks here since early May.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 20 June, 2010
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TODAY will once again see widespread sunshine overcoming a chilly start (only 3 C at Gurteen at 0500) and by the time most people are up and about, it should be 10-12 C then rising steadily to 19-22 C with one or two places possibly 23-24 C in the central inland counties. Unlike yesterday, there won't be as much of a north to northeast gradient although there is still a slight flow from that direction which will favour east coast sea breezes over other coasts, although some sea breeze activity will develop against the flow by mid-afternoon. Inland there may be very little wind, certainly less than one club if you're golfing.

TONIGHT will be another cool and clear night, perhaps not quite as chilly as the weekend overnight lows, in the 7-10 C range mostly.

MONDAY will be hazy and quite warm with a slight southerly flow developing, allowing more sea breeze activity on the south coast, so look for highs there only 16-18 C but most other places 21-24 C.

TUESDAY will begin to bring more cloud from a slowly advancing frontal system, and there could be isolated showers in the west by afternoon, but most other areas will have a similar day to Monday with highs 20-23 C.

WEDNESDAY will see more extensive cloud and showers with higher humidity and high temperatures in the 18-22 C range.

THURSDAY to SATURDAY is likely to bring a showery period with perhaps some substantial rainfalls in a few spots, easing the drought at least locally, and highs 17-20 C on average, possibly a bit higher inland.

Meanwhile, here the weather on Saturday (19th) was partly cloudy and seasonably warm at about 18-20 C across the region. There's not a lot of active weather across North America at this point and the east has returned to warmer than normal conditions.

Just a note that tomorrow (Monday 21st) is the summer solstice at 1130z (u.t.) or 1230h summer time. But the latest sunsets of the year come a few days later because of some quirks of our elliptical orbit around the Sun. In reality there are a number of almost equally short nights at this point in the year. Despite that, last night was actually colder at some places than some of the longest nights of the year, at least the milder ones between Christmas and New Years.

rainbow kirby

Good weather for the hurling this afternoon then!

nilhg

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Sunday, 20 June, 2010
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TODAY will once again see widespread sunshine overcoming a chilly start (only 3 C at Gurteen at 0500) and by the time most people are up and about, it should be 10-12 C then rising steadily to 19-22 C with one or two places possibly 23-24 C in the central inland counties. Unlike yesterday, there won't be as much of a north to northeast gradient although there is still a slight flow from that direction which will favour east coast sea breezes over other coasts, although some sea breeze activity will develop against the flow by mid-afternoon. Inland there may be very little wind, certainly less than one club if you're golfing.

TONIGHT will be another cool and clear night, perhaps not quite as chilly as the weekend overnight lows, in the 7-10 C range mostly.

MONDAY will be hazy and quite warm with a slight southerly flow developing, allowing more sea breeze activity on the south coast, so look for highs there only 16-18 C but most other places 21-24 C.

TUESDAY will begin to bring more cloud from a slowly advancing frontal system, and there could be isolated showers in the west by afternoon, but most other areas will have a similar day to Monday with highs 20-23 C.

WEDNESDAY will see more extensive cloud and showers with higher humidity and high temperatures in the 18-22 C range.

THURSDAY to SATURDAY is likely to bring a showery period with perhaps some substantial rainfalls in a few spots, easing the drought at least locally, and highs 17-20 C on average, possibly a bit higher inland.

Meanwhile, here the weather on Saturday (19th) was partly cloudy and seasonably warm at about 18-20 C across the region. There's not a lot of active weather across North America at this point and the east has returned to warmer than normal conditions.

Just a note that tomorrow (Monday 21st) is the summer solstice at 1130z (u.t.) or 1230h summer time. But the latest sunsets of the year come a few days later because of some quirks of our elliptical orbit around the Sun. In reality there are a number of almost equally short nights at this point in the year. Despite that, last night was actually colder at some places than some of the longest nights of the year, at least the milder ones between Christmas and New Years.

MT, seems some of your Canadian farmers have been having a hard time seeding this year, that and the possibility of drought in Western Australia has lifted wheat prices a little here, I feel for those guys though after the last couple of summers I know what it's like trying to work when the weather is constantly against you.

WolfeIRE

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Just a note that tomorrow (Monday 21st) is the summer solstice at 1130z (u.t.) or 1230h summer time. But the latest sunsets of the year come a few days later because of some quirks of our elliptical orbit around the Sun. In reality there are a number of almost equally short nights at this point in the year. Despite that, last night was actually colder at some places than some of the longest nights of the year, at least the milder ones between Christmas and New Years.

hi mt. that's interesting about the elliptical orbit. Any chance you might know more about why this is the case or does it happen regularly enough. maybe a new thread could be started on this by you as i dont want to divert attn from your thread here.

thanks MT

M.T. Cranium

The earth's orbit undergoes periodic changes and these are thought to be the main causes of the glacial cycles in recent geologic times. To learn more about that, I would suggest you google or otherwise search "Milankovitch cycles" as he was the main proponent of these theories.

Now when I said "elliptical orbit" that refers to the slightly eccentric orbit of the earth at present. The earth is closest to the Sun in early January and furthest in early July, but the eccentricity is only about .01 -- Mercury and Mars have considerably more eccentric orbits than our planet. But this value changes over time and this can be one factor in glaciation. More important factors are changes in our axial tilt (the current 23.4 deg can increase to more than 24 deg) and the seasonality of strongest insolation.

This business about sunset getting a few minutes later after solstice is also related to the directionality of polar wobble at this point, I believe that factor allows the Sun's apparent path to rise a little faster than polar tilt forces it to retreat for a few days, then the polar tilt takes over the balance but if you run a program like skyglobe you'll see that in each month of the year, the Sun's course through the sky is not just a sine curve, but it tends to rise more gradually than it sets for half the year, then reverses and rises more steeply than it sets for the other half year. This is because the axial tilt has a sideways component and this feature "precesses" around the orbital path once every 26,000 years, causing our summer to occur one zodiacal sign earlier every 2,200 years or so. This is why the current astrological signs are actually one sign ahead of solar time, if you follow my drift, for example, Gemini, the sign that is supposed to refer to the period 22 May to 21 June, is where the Sun now resides from about 22 June to 21 July. As the signs were named back in Roman times, we are stuck with the dates that prevailed over two thousand years ago. In another two thousand years, the Sun will be in this constellation from about 22 July to 21 August, so the difference will become two full months.

Another consequence of this cycle is that the winter sky about 13,000 years ago (and from now) will be what we now see in summer, and our familiar winter constellations will appear lower in the sky in summer.

This is essentially what's behind the speculation (hysteria if you prefer) about December 2012 -- the winter solstice lines up with the galactic centre in this year of the Mayan calendar's ending point, and this circumstance has been approaching very gradually for the past few centuries as the background sky appears to rotate around due to this precession. Personally, I don't think this exact alignment will produce any significant results as the nearly similar alignments every year in recent times would create almost the same effects (which compared to the solar-lunar tidal forces are very small). But this is the reason behind the event, whether it's significant or not when it arrives.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 21 June, 2010
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TODAY will be sunny and warm, locally hot, except for a cooling sea breeze most prominent in the south, as today's wind flow will be light southerly. Highs inland will reach 22-24 C, around the coasts 17-20 C.

TONIGHT will be clear, although more hazy with low clouds forming at times in western coastal regions. Lows may once again dip briefly below 10 C inland and near 12 C in coastal sections.

TUESDAY will become more cloudy from west to east but this will still allow some sunshine in the east, and it should remain quite warm and more humid, with highs 21-23 C in many parts, 17-20 C south and west coasts, with a risk of an afternoon shower or period of drizzle there.

WEDNESDAY will become showery with higher humidity levels, some sunny breaks, and highs near 22 C inland, 18-20 C coastal regions.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY may remain a bit unsettled but there are indications that a slight ridge will reform and allow more sunshine than cloud, making the showers rather isolated and thundery. Highs may drift back up towards 25 C.

NEXT WEEKEND is looking more unsettled and there could be some locally heavy showers and thunderstorms, with highs 22-24 C.

Sunday 20th here was cloudy and cool with a high only 16 C -- it felt quite chilly after Saturday's sunshine. The eastern half of N America has warmed up again into the 28-35 C range.

Today will mark the summer solstice (at 1230h) -- the point at which the Sun attains its highest angle in the mid-day skies of the northern hemisphere. As I was mentioning above, sunset remains about the same time for another ten days or so, but sunrise moves later to make the net daylight hours shorter. Some places in Ireland had 16-17 hours of sunshine on Sunday !!! And congrats to Graeme McDowell for winning the U.S. Open (golf) at Pebble Beach, California, one of the earth's most scenic golf courses.

WolfeIRE

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

This is essentially what's behind the speculation (hysteria if you prefer) about December 2012 --

MT, thank you very much for taking the time to explain this in lay mans language. I saw 2012 last week, puke bucket in tow, and that's why I asked.

Thanks again.

Popoutman

Apologies for the off-topic post, but I'm getting annoyed by the 2012 stuff I'm seeing.
A good start for the actual story on 2012 is here: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012.html

On the latest sunsets and earliest sunrises, this is due to the effects of the sun's motion (as can be seen as the analemma) being slightly ahead or behind the 'mean sun' as the speed of the sun along the sky is not exactly the same. This is due to the elliptical orbit of the earth around the sun.

M.T. Cranium

Yes, I wouldn't worry about this 2012 stuff, we will all be doing quite well to make it to December 2012 in any case ... and that has nothing much to do with the positions of celestial objects but the objects between our ears down here.

I mean, what's more of immediate concern, a bunch of loose nukes going AWOL from one of the stans, a pig farm overflowing its sewage lagoon into the drinking supply of some city, or a black hole about twenty zillion miles from earth?

In any case, if the world comes to an end, makes the forecasting a lot easier, and no more vuvulezas.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 22 June, 2010
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TODAY will bring more cloud than previous days, but some filtered sunshine will continue to make it rather warm in eastern and central counties, although coastal Leinster could be a bit cooler with a sea breeze. Western counties may find it hard to shake off the low cloud (marine layer as we call it here, maybe there as well?) ... so expect highs to vary from 23-25 C in some central counties and inland Ulster, to 18-20 C west coast and values in between elsewhere. There may be some light showers developing at times in the west. Winds today will increase a bit to SSW 10-20 mph.

TONIGHT will be generally cloudy with some brief hazy but clear intervals, and muggy, quite warm too, with lows only falling to 11-13 C.

WEDNESDAY will be cloudy with some sunny intervals, and passing showers that may become heavy and thundery across Connacht and nearby parts of other regions. Winds will be moderate SW to W at 15-30 mph, and highs will be in the range of 23-25 C southeast inland, to 17-19 C Donegal.

THURSDAY may see some improvement as a weak high pressure ridge returns, with some chance of a residual shower, and longer sunny intervals as a result, highs near 23 C.

FRIDAY will be hazy and warm, increasingly humid again, with highs 22-24 C. Some showers or a local thundershower may develop by afternoon especially western inland districts.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy, warm and humid with showers and chance of a thunderstorm, highs near 23 C.

SUNDAY will be similar with possibly more widespread thundershowers developing, highs near 22 C.

The outlook for the following week is fairly good, breezy and rather warm with showers at times but some good sunny intervals as well. Looks like the month should finish off about 1-1.5 C deg above normal.

Meanwhile, Monday 21st here got very little out of the highest sun of the year, despite our latitude (49N) we had nothing much higher than 16 C and just a few glimpses of the sun by evening. Some severe storms have erupted in Michigan and Indiana around midnight local time.

Well, keeping my fingers crossed for France to make the much deserved exit from the WC today (and take that any way you wish) ... ... trying to do the math on Mexico-Uruguay, could we see a deliberate own goal in this game? Anything to avoid Argentina perhaps?

Speak Now

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Tuesday, 22 June, 2010

Well, keeping my fingers crossed for France to make the much deserved exit from the WC today (and take that any way you wish) ... ... trying to do the math on Mexico-Uruguay, could we see a deliberate own goal in this game? Anything to avoid Argentina perhaps?

Hi M.T, a draw will keep Uruguay top so i'd assume Mexico will go for the win to avoid Argentina in the next round. Don't think France will do enough today anyway, wouldn't be shocked if some of the players didn't turn up and if they did possibly not try a leg (no change there ). Wouldn't bother me anyway if France did qualify just for the circus that comes with them. When that rag they call a newspaper (The Sun) printed anyone but the French t-shirts i suddenly didnt hate them anymore :pac: (The french not the rag )
Thanks for the forecasts, great summer here in sunny south east.
Next up....Water shortages :eek:

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 23 June, 2010
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TODAY will be mostly cloudy and warm, quite muggy with some fog or low cloud near the south coast. A few showers will develop mainly over central and western counties, and there is a slight risk of a thunderstorm. Winds will increase to SSW 15-30 mph veering slowly to WSW, and highs will reach 22 or 23 C inland, 17-19 C west and south coasts.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and muggy, quite warm again with lows only 13 to 15 C. There may be some further showers mainly in Ulster and Connacht.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with longer sunny breaks than today, and somewhat less humidity although some coasts may remain under low cloud. Highs will be 22-24 C except 18-20 C west coast. There may be one or two isolated showers in Donegal and nearby counties.

FRIDAY will also be partly cloudy with isolated showers, warm with highs of about 23 C again.

THE WEEKEND is looking more unsettled with heavier showers developing in a mostly cloudy, muggy air mass, highs 19-22 C and mild overnight lows near 14 C or so.

NEXT WEEK is also looking rather warm with a few more showers at times, with highs remaining in the low 20s to mid 20s.

Tuesday (22nd) here was a cloudy but pleasantly warm day with some sunny breaks, the threat of rain which never quite materialized from dark clouds, and light winds. The high was around 20 C. Tracking some very heavy rainfall developing west of Chicago and heading towards Toronto and New England, but very hot and humid further south.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 24 June, 2010
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TODAY will start out rather cloudy with some filtered sunshine at times this morning, also some isolated light showers mainly in Connacht and west Ulster. The afternoon and evening may become brighter as the cloud (mainly mid-level to start) begins to break apart. Highs will be 22-24 C inland and 18-20 C near most of the coastal regions with a generally SW flow but local sea breezes (winds 8-15 mph). It will be a little less muggy than yesterday.

TONIGHT will feature some clear intervals and a nearly full moon, with lows of about 12-14 C. Low cloud and drizzle are possible in west coastal districts.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with more sun in the east and south, and some chance of drizzle or light rain at times near the west coast. Highs will continue in the 22-24 C range inland and 18-20 C near the coasts.

SATURDAY will be cloudy with some sunny intervals and heavier showers developing, risk of a thunderstorm. It will be quite muggy with highs 21-23 C.

SUNDAY will also be muggy and rather warm with risk of heavy showers or thundershowers. Highs will continue 21-23 C.

The weather next week continues to look unsettled at times, but warm.

Meanwhile, we enjoyed a full day of sunshine here on Wednesday (for a change) with a warm high near 22 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 25 June, 2010
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TODAY will be rather cloudy and warm, with some filtered sunshine mainly in the east during the morning to mid-day period, with some light rain possible in the west by afternoon. Highs generally 19-22 C in a southerly breeze of 10 to 20 mph.

TONIGHT will be cloudy and mild with occasional light rain in the western and later central counties, and lows of 11-13 C.

SATURDAY will be mostly cloudy again, continuing rather warm and humid, with heavier showers at times, even the risk of a brief thundershower. Highs will be in the range of 19-22 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and warm with isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms developing, and highs of 20-23 C following morning lows near 13 or 14 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will continue warm and unsettled, and WEDNESDAY could be even a bit warmer.

Around here, we had a rather similar day to your Thursday, it was cloudy with some afternoon sunny breaks and about 22 C. The high in New York City was close to 36 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 26 June, 2010
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Full moon today at 1230h summer time. The Pacific and east Asia will see an eclipse of the Moon (where I live, around sunrise and moonset).

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, but outbreaks of light rain this morning, possibly heavier showers and a localized thundershower by afternoon and evening (5-15 mms rain on average), and highs 20-23 C, with moderate SSW winds 12-25 mph. It will be quite humid, with fog near the outer south and west coasts at times.

TONIGHT will be partly to mostly cloudy and very mild, humid with a few more showers, lows 12-14 C.

SUNDAY will see morning showers and some afternoon clearing as winds freshen from SW 15-30 mph. Highs will be about 22 C.

MONDAY will start out dry but with increasing cloud and rather gusty southerly winds at times, periods of rain will develop later in the day (10-20 mms possible). Highs will be about 21-22 C. Winds will gust to 30 mph by afternoon and evening.

TUESDAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals, and scattered showers, rather humid and still warm(ish) with highs of about 21-22 C.

WEDNESDAY is looking interesting with some chance of moderate to strong southwest winds developing, and heavy showers in western counties. It may also be quite warm in eastern and central Ireland with highs 22-25 C.

Today (Friday 25th) here was a mostly sunny day with a strong westerly breeze, low humidity and highs near 23 C. It's possible that the first named North Atlantic basin storm of 2010 (Alex) will develop in the Caribbean today, or after crossing the Yucatan, in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 27 June, 2010
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TODAY ... Rather cloudy this morning with scattered but mostly brief showers, then some sunny intervals to follow, with another area of showers and possibly a thundershower by late afternoon (evening further east) ... greater chances of rain in Connacht and nearby counties, but some long dry intervals in most places ... warm and humid with some sea fog or mist blowing inland in south coastal districts ... highs generally 21-24 C ... winds SSW 15-30 mph.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy and mild with light showers at times, slight clearance towards dawn, lows 11-14 C.

MONDAY ... Bright if not sunny during the morning, showers developing mid-day west, afternoon east, heavy at times by evening. Warm and humid again, highs 22-24 C.

TUESDAY ... Showers ending, some sunny intervals, breezy, lows 10-12 C and highs 20-22 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy, windy at times west coast, in 20-40 mph SSW gradient (gusts to 60 mph possible western Mayo) ... some sunny intervals in the east, mostly cloudy west with more frequent showers ... highs 21-25 C.

THURSDAY, FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, continuing rather warm with highs near 22 C. Continuing quite breezy especially west coast counties.

Today (Saturday 26th) was cloudy with some sunny intervals here and a bit cool due to a strong westerly breeze, high of about 19-20 C.

Tropical storm Alex is crossing the Yucatan today and may strengthen in the western Gulf of Mexico then could move north towards Texas or even western Louisiana ... the further east it heads, the greater its impact could be on the oil disaster (this would come about by Thursday or so).

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 28 June, 2010
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TODAY will be cloudy with showers turning to longer periods of rain that may become heavy at times especially in the southwest by mid-day. This rain may contain some thundery bursts that develop further towards central and then eastern counties. Winds will be generally light south to southwest, and some hill fog will develop. Highs of about 18 to 20 C will feel rather warm due to the high humidity. Rainfalls of 8-15 mms will be fairly widespread (20 mms in a few spots).

TONIGHT will be foggy with a few residual showers, possibly clearing just before dawn, lows near 11 C.

TUESDAY will become partly cloudy with longer sunny intervals developing by afternoon, and highs 20-23 C.

WEDNESDAY will start out rather bright and warm, especially in the east, with highs reaching 22-25 C there, but cloud and then rain will develop across the west with an increasing southerly breeze becoming quite windy by evening on the west coast (S 20-40 mph); highs in the west will be restricted to about 18-20 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are looking wet at this point, and the drought conditions may be helped considerably by downpours of rain, some thundery, with 20-40 mms possible in total. Winds across Connacht will increase to about 30-50 mph at times on Thursday but other regions will be more breezy than windy. Highs will be 18-21 C during this wet spell, and by Friday afternoon the sun may be breaking through more frequently again.

By the weekend of 3-4 July, the weather should be more settled again with longer intervals of sunshine and just isolated showers mainly in northern counties.

Meanwhile, Sunday (27th) here was cloudy with some showers and rather cool temperatures near 17 C. Tropical storm Alex fell to tropical depression status inland over the Yucatan but appears to be strengthening overnight in the southern Gulf of Mexico. It seems to be heading for a landfall near Corpus Christi TX or closer to the Rio Grande border with Mexico.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Monday, 9:40 pm
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Radar indicates possible heavy thundershower moving out of the hills towards south Wicklow between Arklow and Wicklow in the next 30-45 minutes (non-severe but gusty winds and small hail possible with it).

Generally speaking the shower activity is ending with this final burst of showers in the southeast. Still looks like a significant rainfall coming Wed night to Thursday night, and gusty winds for Connacht by Thursday.

yup we had a mini monsoon earlier and it'sbeen pretty wet since.
Gusty wind to boot here in south wicklow.

M.T. Cranium

Looks like another sharp shower possibly thundery moving into Dublin now, south side likely to see 15-20 mms next hour or so. Seems like the last gasp of this system for tonight.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 29 June, 2010
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TODAY ... any morning cloud should rather quickly clear away to leave mostly sunny skies for a while, then cloud will increase at higher levels from the west this afternoon. There will be longer cloudy intervals in Donegal, and a slight chance of a residual shower in the southeast this morning. Highs today should reach 21-23 C.

TONIGHT ... partly cloudy, misty and rather mild with lows 11-13 C.

WEDNESDAY ... variable amounts of cloud, some sunny intervals in the east mainly, rather warm, highs 22-24 C but 18-20 C near the cloudier west coast, some rain arriving there by afternoon as winds freshen to S 15-30 mph (but rather light winds elsewhere most of the day).

THURSDAY ... rain from early morning, heavy at times, with thundery bursts giving totals of 20-40 mms in many places, remaining mostly cloudy and mild, foggy or misty, humid ... highs about 18-19 C ... winds SSW 20-35 mph but closer to 35-55 mph outer west coast.

FRIDAY ... gradual clearing after a few heavy showers in eastern counties, isolated showers redeveloping, but not as wet as Thursday, 5-10 mms rain in general, winds SW 20-35 mph, highs near 20 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... partly cloudy both days, isolated showers, rather breezy from the SW, force 5-6 winds south and west coasts, temperatures near normal (highs near 20 C).

Meanwhile, Monday (28th) was cloudy with a few sunny breaks here, and reasonably warm, 19-20 C. Alex is likely to reach hurricane status soon in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The guidance suggests a landfall near the Rio Grande in northeast Mexico but I'm wondering if it means to move further north towards central Texas -- we shall see (the hurricane centre says that they rate the confidence on track rather low in any case).

loup

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Looks like another sharp shower possibly thundery moving into Dublin now, south side likely to see 15-20 mms next hour or so. Seems like the last gasp of this system for tonight.

Spot on MT there was another downpour plus thunder and lightning in the distance (possibly out to sea) on southside of Dublin at 1am. TG that was it for the night!

GSF

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Tuesday, 29 June, 2010
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THURSDAY ... rain from early morning, heavy at times, with thundery bursts giving totals of 20-40 mms in many places, remaining mostly cloudy and mild, foggy or misty, humid ... highs about 18-19 C ... winds SSW 20-35 mph but closer to 35-55 mph outer west coast.

Thursday is shaping up to be an awful day. Any chance it will miss the Dublin area?

km79

metcheck and windfinder agree that the galway region will get 20-30mm over weds and thurs morning but yr.no which is usually more reliable is showing only about 10mm for same period???

M.T. Cranium

Check again in the morning, but at this point in time I would say that Thursday will be a wet day in all parts of Ireland. The band of rain developing is a bit wider than Ireland and slow-moving, so with some variations it should give a good soaking rain to most counties. I will take another look at possible amounts in the overnight (early morning for you) forecast.

From what I'm hearing, though, this rain will be beneficial to many, so unless you had some outdoor plans I would say grin and bear it, because it may begin to turn rather dry again on into July.

Now here, it would be rather more unwelcome since Thursday is also our national holiday and given the timing, the start of a four-day weekend for many people. I am heading out of town as well, so if people notice some different timing of forecasts, this will be the reason, I may have to get onto a rather busy shared internet terminal when I can (and if I am not off doing something else). So I will be alerting some of the weather forum crew to look in and update if they see fit. (first half of July, basically)

delw

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I am heading out of town as well, so if people notice some different timing of forecasts, this will be the reason, I may have to get onto a rather busy shared internet terminal when I can (and if I am not off doing something else). So I will be alerting some of the weather forum crew to look in and update if they see fit. (first half of July, basically)

enjoy ur break MT

df1985

take a break! well deserved! im sure we'll survive a few days with dodgy met eireann forecasts!

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 30 June, 2010
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TODAY ... cloudy to start, a few showers moving through Ulster this morning, followed by some brief sunny breaks later this morning from west to east, before the main cloud mass of the advancing Atlantic frontal system arrives about noon on the west coast, followed by intermittent rain at first, the heavier rain will come tonight. The central and eastern counties may stay dry until fairly well on into the afternoon or evening. Southerly winds will slowly increase reaching 20-40 mph by evening on the west coast, gusts to 60 mph in the nearby Atlantic overnight. Highs today will be 20-22 C.

TONIGHT ... periods of rain, heavy at times, giving 20-30 mms in the west. The heavier rain may not reach the east until morning. Winds south 20-30 mph and lows 13-15 C.

THURSDAY ... periods of rain continuing, becoming more showery in the west by mid-morning and in the east by afternoon, but a further 10-20 mms may fall (totals then 30-50 mms). Winds SSW veering SW 20-30 mph (40-50 mph gusts over coastal Mayo and Donegal). The evening may be more pleasant especially in the southwest.

FRIDAY ... intervals of cloud and sunshine, isolated fast-moving but possibly squally showers, thundershowers ... highs near 21 C.

SATURDAY ... risk of more heavy showers developing, winds becoming rather strong to force 5-7 south and west coasts, southerly veering to westerly. Highs near 17 or 18 C.

SUNDAY ... a few more showers (some models are showing the strong frontal system that I mentioned above for Saturday delayed to Sunday, so stay tuned for the final outcome on that) ... if this holds, some sunshine should develop at times, and highs would be 18-19 C.

The outlook for next week looks about average for early July with a SW to W flow at about 15-30 mph much of the time, implying some passing showers but some settled periods too. The longer term forecast is for a slow return to the dry conditions of June but possibly with a good shot of rain from tonight to the weekend, the dry spell or local drought will break down enough to withstand another dry spell later.

Today here (29th) was partly cloudy and rather pleasant, about 20 C.

As mentioned in an earlier post, heading out on the road for a couple of weeks, may have the chance to look in and update some forecasts but have alerted a few of the forum regulars to keep an eye on things.

Deep Easterly

M.T is setting off on his holidays at the moment and has asked a couple of us to step in and fill a few gaps. He will still post forecasts and updates etc but they will be erratic for the next week or so.



Anyway, just to update on tonight's spell of rain.

Currently the front is beginning to strengthen up along the west coast. Expected to push itself eastwards overnight, giving totals of between 5mm and 15mm on average over much of the country. The front is expected to have cleared all but eastern areas by morning.

Some showers (possibly heavy) may follow on directly behind the frontal zone and will occur on and off throughout the day tomorrow. Some areas, as is usual in showery set ups, will remain dry throughout.


Will post another update should circumstances change.

weisses

Need ......... my......daily .........weather ...update ...arggh ..withdrawl symptoms ......kicking ....in ..... "sigh"

lord lucan

Happy Canada day to M.T.:)

Deep Easterly

weisses wrote: »

Need ......... my......daily .........weather ...update ...arggh ..withdrawl symptoms ......kicking ....in ..... "sigh"

If you will except 2nds...:p

Today: Breezy with sunny spells with the chance of shower or 2 in places, which may be locally heavy. Highs of between 18c & 21c on average, warmest over the eastern half of the country. Tonight, showers retreating back to western and northern coastal areas, where it will remain breezy but winds slackening a little elsewhere.

Tomorrow: Bright start with again the risk of a few showers but cloud increasing during the day with the chance of more persistant rain towards evening. Breezy once again as winds back southerly during the afternoon and possibly becoming strong along exposed coasts . Daytime highs around 17c-20c, which is around average for the time of year.


I or others will update should it be required.

glossy

Thanks Deep Easterly

delw

MT are you DE in disguise?:D,cheers for updates DE

Deep Easterly

delw wrote: »

MT are you DE in disguise?:D,cheers for updates DE

. Nope! Hopefully M.T will be back doing the forecasts soon though, as I just can't emulate his unique & meticulous 'modus operandi'.


Today: A day with a mixture of milky sunshine and cloud; like yesterday, showers could pop up anywhere, as they are indeed doing in parts of the west as we speak and again some could be heavy but in general they will be hit and miss jobs. Winds generally light to moderate SW'ly overland; moderate to fresh around coasts. Temperatures around average for the time of year, with highs of between 16c and 20c generally, warmest the further east & southeast one heads.

Tonight: Cloud increasing more generally with more persistant rain developing along western and northwestern coast around midnight (timing is a bit uncertain at this early stage) pushing over the country as we head into the morning. Rain looks like it will be heaviest over the Northern half of the country overall. Winds will back southerly ahead of the rain and increase fresh to strong in coastal areas.

Tomorrow: Windy conditions expected during the morning and early afternoon, with possible gales along NW and N coasts. Overnight rain clearing slowly but with still a few showers in its wake.


Outlook: Yawn...



The above forecast is just a general brief overview and is subject to updates as timing and intensity of tonight's approaching trough is very uncertain. Feel free to update if need be.


A nice weather related tune to pass way 3 mins