Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

km79

any updates on tnights rain i.e. timing , regional intensities?

Redsunset

km79 wrote: »

any updates on tnights rain i.e. timing , regional intensities?

Come morning the heaviest rain moves in and especially hits the western areas .

owenc

redsunset wrote: »

Come morning the heaviest rain moves in and especially hits the western areas .

For some reason i'm looking forward to the rain, i hope it buckets down like hell and then thunders down!:D

owenc

owenc wrote: »

For some reason i'm looking forward to the rain, i hope it buckets down like hell and then thunders down!:D

HOLEY BALALONEY Owenc, you could knock me down with a feather !! You looking forward to rain?? Theres a first LOL.
Good man! get out and get a bit wet.:D

So, are we expecting a deluge tonight? Will Dublin get any? Again , the garden needs it.
Thanks guys

owenc

Jake1 wrote: »

HOLEY BALALONEY Owenc, you could knock me down with a feather !! You looking forward to rain?? Theres a first LOL.
Good man! get out and get a bit wet.:D

Yes but only if it rains heavily.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Saturday 3 July _ 7:20 pm
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Thanks weather forum guys for helping out, I am enjoying a nice rest here and just popped in to offer a brief update on developing events tonight.

Fronts are far out to the west at this time (around 25W) and racing east, hence the concern about wind gusts when they come through, which I would time for about 0400-0600 in Mayo to about 0700-1000 in Ulster and Leinster.

Expect some gusts to about 55 mph in exposed locations and 40 mph generally for a few hours, from a SW direction veering more to west.

Squally showers will accompany this and there could be some thunder especially further east. Average rainfall amounts will probably be in the 5-15 mm range, heavier towards Ulster.

The impact of these winds may appear to be a little less in southeast inland counties although all coastal districts will see some strong gusts. I hope someone from the weather forum has a chance to discuss the radar from 0600 to 0900 in case there are any locally severe storms across south-central inland counties (I won't likely have access by then). I would say at this early stage that there is some risk of localized wind damage from fast-moving cells with some hail possible too.

Looks as though Tuesday afternoon may also be quite windy in Connacht.

Otherwise, there are already demands that I get back to doing nothing, or is it the grass needs cutting? Anyway, batten down the hatches as they say. :eek:

gonker

Any forecast for Oxegen please?

Su Campu

Not strictly the usual homemade boards.ie forecast but there is a severe weather warning issued by ESTOFEX for severe wind gusts and tornadoes in northern parts (ie. Coleraine!) today.

http://www.estofex.org

Redsunset

yep system approached at a higher angle giving some locally fast moving downpours to Ulster.

This image taken at 05.45

Su Campu

There's been no sign of severe convective weather on the radar so far, with the band of rain tending to weaken as it's been crossing the country this morning. But the strongest of the gradient winds have yet to arrive this morning, and coupled with some decent showers behind the cold front, there still is potential for the scenario MT points out above.

Redsunset

As of 8 am system looping away toward Scotland but still heavy stuff arond north.

Redsunset

Su Campu,I've had a problem trusting our own Met Eireann radar before.




Metoffice shows some cells in there.

I did a comparison before of the two radars in real time and ours was not up to scratch for representing rain intensity,but anyway if some one up there can confirm anything it would help (Owenc???)

Deep Easterly

redsunset wrote: »

Su Campu,I've had a problem trusting our own Met Eireann radar before.




Metoffice shows some cells in there.

I did a comparison before of the two radars in real time and ours was not up to scratch for representing rain intensity,but anyway if some one up there can confirm anything it would help (Owenc???)

I agree, but I've learned not to trust the UK met office radar either. While our radar underplays intensity, UK radar very often overplays it.

owenc

redsunset wrote: »

Su Campu,I've had a problem trusting our own Met Eireann radar before.




Metoffice shows some cells in there.

I did a comparison before of the two radars in real time and ours was not up to scratch for representing rain intensity,but anyway if some one up there can confirm anything it would help (Owenc???)

I don't know but when i got up at 9 it wasn't raining at all and again we didn't get much rain either. Though its windy, i thought this was to last till midday and its gone already!

Redsunset

owenc wrote: »

I don't know but when i got up at 9 it wasn't raining at all and again we didn't get much rain either. Though its windy, i thought this was to last till midday and its gone already!

That image was before 6am and yes it already cleared now,ya slept through it

owenc

redsunset wrote: »

That image was before 6am and yes it already cleared now,ya slept through it

Well the suns out now and according to the bbc it was ment to be raining nuts now!:mad:

Redsunset

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I agree, but I've learned not to trust the UK met office radar either. While our radar underplays intensity, UK radar very often overplays it.

Ok so lets call it somewhere inbetween then.

Should not have to though.

Anyway lets not ruin the forecasting thread any further debating it.

Su Campu

That's what I get for trusting the limited info I can access on my fone!! :-D

Deep Easterly

No sign of M.T yet so a quick forecast.


Today: Bright fresh day with a chance of a shower or two. Wind light to moderate W. Highs of around 17c-19c on average. Tonight: Winds falling off as they back southerly. Mostly fine with just the risk of a shower near coasts.

Tomorrow: A bright start with cloud increasing during the day with some rain or drizzle developing towards the west & northwest by afternoon. Winds increasing moderate to fresh during the day overland, fresh to strong near NW coasts. Feeling more humid than today with highs of between 17c and 21c.

ch750536

Is MT ok?

pistolpetes11

ch750536 wrote: »

Is MT ok?

On holidays I think .

Deep Easterly

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

On holidays I think .

Yep, not exactly sure when he will be back though. Hopefully soon!

A poor substitute forecast in the meantime.

Today: Increasingly cloudy, mild and moist weather spreading to all parts with some rain at times. Increasingly breezy also with moderate to fresh southerly winds overland, fresh to strong near exposed coasts. Highest 17c to 21c. Tonight: Still some rain/drizzle in places but slowly clearing from the NW towards morning.

Tomorrow: Overnight rain may be slow to clear the SE but generally a mild, breezy day with the chance of a shower.


As always, timings are never pinpoint certain, but feel free to update should it be called for.

Su Campu

MT's on vacation and will be back on the 12th

WIZE

Hi All

Im going Greyhound Racing in Shelbourne Park this Saturday 10th July

Should I be expecting lovely and Sunny or a wash out

Thanks

secman

I've seen you, you havn't a chance running against the dogs !

Friday is due to be bad but i think forecast for Sat is fairly ok.



Secman

M.T. Cranium

Yes, I'm okay, on holidays ... thought I might get more time to look at the forecasts but my access is somewhat limited by a big crowd of people all staying here (family gathering) ... and then last night (like 0530 your time) I was actually going to post a forecast and the power went out, then stayed out until well after I packed it in. Some kind of mishap on the road, and this being quite an isolated place. I have posted a picture below, perhaps this will explain my absence from the computer too. Anyway, DE and some others have kindly kept things going and from what I can see, there isn't that much going on that isn't already well known to everyone, so I will stay with the holiday idea until maybe next Monday. I enjoyed the bit above about racing the greyhounds.

Anyway, here's a picture of paradise, weather has been improving too, 27 C and sunny on Tuesday, expecting 30 C each day rest of the week. You may have heard, it is ungodly hot in the eastern cities, NYC had 39 C for a high, same in DC and Baltimore was 40 C -- although it's not as humid as some of their heat waves, dew points were as low as 10 C while this heat developed.

DOCARCH

Nice one MT!

Would you not brush other family members aside off the computer and tell them you have work of (Irish) national importance to do?

Only joking of course. Enjoy your break.

WolfeIRE

enjoy the break MT. Watch out for this young fellow. http://www.tonebendermusic.net/pictures/albums/userpics/10001/deliverance_banjo.jpg

rhonin

Nice photo. I think I see Bear Grylles across the lake :pac:

km79

met eireann are predicting this friday to be very wet and dry saturday but yr.no are predicting wet saturday and not too bad friday (for galway region).
which is more likely to be the case?

WolfeIRE

km79 wrote: »

met eireann are predicting this friday to be very wet and dry saturday but yr.no are predicting wet saturday and not too bad friday (for galway region).
which is more likely to be the case?

it will be wet from friday eve right through to saturday eve by the looks of things.

owenc

km79 wrote: »

met eireann are predicting this friday to be very wet and dry saturday but yr.no are predicting wet saturday and not too bad friday (for galway region).
which is more likely to be the case?

Don't even bother everytime its supposed to rain it just drizzles which is even worse than rain and then i get a migrane i want bloody sun!:mad:

lord lucan

owenc wrote: »

Don't even bother everytime its supposed to rain it just drizzles which is even worse than rain and then i get a migrane i want bloody sun!:mad:

Move to Kent!:pac:

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Yes, I'm okay, on holidays ... thought I might get more time to look at the forecasts but my access is somewhat limited by a big crowd of people all staying here (family gathering) ... and then last night (like 0530 your time) I was actually going to post a forecast and the power went out, then stayed out until well after I packed it in. Some kind of mishap on the road, and this being quite an isolated place. I have posted a picture below, perhaps this will explain my absence from the computer too. Anyway, DE and some others have kindly kept things going and from what I can see, there isn't that much going on that isn't already well known to everyone, so I will stay with the holiday idea until maybe next Monday. I enjoyed the bit above about racing the greyhounds.

Anyway, here's a picture of paradise, weather has been improving too, 27 C and sunny on Tuesday, expecting 30 C each day rest of the week. You may have heard, it is ungodly hot in the eastern cities, NYC had 39 C for a high, same in DC and Baltimore was 40 C -- although it's not as humid as some of their heat waves, dew points were as low as 10 C while this heat developed.

Enjoy the rest of your holiday.

I really am beginning to appreciate just how much effort is put into a daily forecast, and certainly how much M.T is putting in, considering his forecasts are far more detailed than mine and out to a much longer range. I try to keep mine brief but still have to look a number of models to try and put some sort general overview in the couple of sentences I write. It is all the more harder when every model conflicts within the 36hr range or even less, as well as trying foresee how a pattern may develop on the latest sat animations.

I, along with everyone else will be glad to see you back!!



Anyways....

Today: Any residual frontal cloud should clear away although it may slice back over the SE at times. Otherwise a typical Irish day of watery sunshine, a brisk breeze and a passing shower, which are more likely in the North and West, but no less heavy in other areas should they filter through. Winds moderate to fresh SW, strong near exposed coasts. Highs of between 16c-21c, warmest towards the east and southeast. Tonight, still a couple of showers knocking around but winds should ease.

Tomorrow: Probably a bright start with the odd shower but cloud increasing with showers or longer spells of rain taking a firmer hold. Winds light to moderate backing southerly towards evening.




The track of tomorrow's developing wave feature is uncertain so updates will most likely be needed, and not necessarily by moi!!

owenc

lord lucan wrote: »

Move to Kent!:pac:

I can't my parents want to stay in this dive and i don't know why as my mum is sick of the weather too.

M.T. Cranium

Thanks for the tip, you seem to be saying watch for the neighbour lads ... so far so good, mostly just archery and banjo playing, meanwhile, if you would accept a forecast from a person in advanced heat stroke, I am seeing a convergence of model solutions on 20-30 mms of rain Friday into Saturday morning, possibly thundery at times in central southern counties. As that's still 48h away, I would say check back for an update Thursday evening your time as (like you say) I can't seem to fight my way through to the keyboard here even with the relative importance of my task (like, totally).

Deep Easterly

Bit late but here is a quick forecast:

Today: Some bright spells but mostly cloudy with showery outbreaks of rain in places. Highs of between 17c & 20c. Winds light to moderate. Tonight. Cloudy and murky with some spots of rain around.

Tomorrow. Mostly cloudy but with the odd bright spell and the odd showery drop of rain. The chance of more general rain towards evening in the SW. Wind mostly light and feeling humid.

La Madame

Will this summer be a repeat of the last 3 Summers?
I live 20 years on this Island now and I believe I have seen enough miserable
Weather. One low pressure system follows the next. Is it me who is in the wrong location or is it this Island?

Deep Easterly

Bit on the late side once again

Today: Remaining cloudy generally with the best chance of any bright spells in the NW. Rain in the south & east continuing into the evening and night with the chance of some heavy bursts later. Temps 19c, Wind mostly light. Tonight. Mostly cloudy with rain in places.

Tomorrow. Rain or showers with some heavy/thundery bursts in places.

M.T. Cranium

Update from MTC at 1800h
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Not much to add to what DE has already predicted above, just some estimates of rainfall amounts. Expect 20-40 mms in almost all parts of Ireland by mid-day Saturday. There is some chance of a heavier band (40-50 mms) setting up ahead of a warm front that will push through south-central Ireland overnight towards Dublin and Meath. So counties from about Cork northeast through Tipps, Offaly and Westmeath could be in the zone more likely to see this heavier rainfall but in any case most places will get a soaking rain. I will try to update this rainfall forecast around 10-11 pm.

Too bad it had to come on a busy weekend rather than a Tuesday night but many will welcome this final stage of drought relief (let's hope it's not the first stage of moisture excess because another 15-30 mms of rain seems quite plausible for mid-week).

Still in the mountains enjoying clear skies and hot weather here, the highs are around 32 C but it does drop off to 15 C for an overnight low and the humidity levels here are very low (dew points are only 8-10 C). Went up to an elevation of 1800m yesterday, it was blazing hot even up there although the car thermometer said it was 22 C, felt really about the same as down in the valley. With no wind and the fierce insolation that you get in the alpine (reflecting off snow still lying around in places) you tend to tan and/or burn in about 30 minutes. Here's an idea of the scenery (this would be near Revelstoke BC which is a good hundred miles north of where we are staying).

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ 11 p.m. where it matters (3 p.m. here in the high desert)
____________________________________

Looks as though the rain now falling from about Lough Derg east and northeast will gradually turn to a foggy drizzle in central counties, but a new wave of moisture is forming up west of Biscay set to move into the southwest around sunrise and this will tend to replace the heavier rain now falling in about the same areas tomorrow. As DE was saying in the thunderstorm thread, the best chance for any thunderstorm activity to develop would be tomorrow mid-day to early evening across south central and later eastern counties as a weak cold front develops in association with a weak warm sector likely to form early tomorrow (already some evidence for it across the southeast now). So assuming that this does develop, would watch radar in south-central counties after about 1100h Saturday for any signs of an organized band of heavier rain that might become thundery for Tipps, Carlow, Kildare, Offaly and nearby parts of other counties from about 1200 to 1600h. This could also reach Dublin and Wicklow by 1500-1700h. Sunday looks better with at least some sunny intervals developing although not totally rid of the showers either.

Where I am, it's sunny and 32 C away from the lake (which is like two miles wide and forty miles long, quite deep and the water is only about 15 C from glacial meltwater, and if you sit within a few feet of shore in the shade, it's probably about 20 C there ... micro-climates around here are quite strongly developed, we noticed driving back here yesterday that it had dropped to 18 C at 8 p.m. in part of the valley that gets an early sunset from the mountain ranges to the west, part of that was being at a higher elevation but as soon as the valley widened out the temperature was back up to 24 C again). The creek running through this area from local glaciers is cold enough that you can feel the chill in the air over top of it where the highway crosses, and along a walking trail nearby, but you can literally feel a sort of wall of heat as you leave that very narrow ribbon of cool air (could be as cool as 15 C over top of the rushing water which is likely only about 10 C). Kind of odd that I can walk from one location that is warmer than anywhere in Ireland will probably be all summer, to another location that is probably cooler now than anywhere in Ireland will be this month. But I think I will have a cold one instead. :cool:

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Saturday 6:50 pm
______________________

Moderate risk of some embedded thunder and lightning this evening mainly east of a line from about Lough Neagh to Athlone to Waterford (if that be a line, more like a curve). Slight risk of a cell within that area and especially around Laois, Carlow, Kildare and nearby parts of other counties, becoming marginally severe, risks would be wind gusts to 45 knots, hail to 2 cm, and locally torrential rain for 10-20 minutes amounting to a further 10-20 mms.

I'm not viewing this as a potent severe weather situation aside from the heavy rainfall, most of which has fallen already, but some factors are near the lower end of the conducive range.

Another hot, sunny day starting out here, although we did get 2-3 mms of rain in sporadic non-thundery showers overnight, a precursor of what looks like heavy storms brewing to the north, hoping to get some dramatic video or pix today, tomorrow and even Monday (when back home) as by then we have a very strong front plowing into this hot air mass, the disturbances today and Sunday are more like pre-frontal troughs, but on Monday we see height falls of about 300 metres across B.C. and air mass temps plunging from the mid to high 30s on the weekend to 13-17 C behind the front. Could go tornadic in Alberta when it crosses the mountains.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 12 July, 2010
____________________

Just back from my holidays, will get back into the daily routine as soon as I deal with car-lag (worse than jet-lag, takes longer to develop).

Had a quick look at the week and felt rather ill. Rain at times today, mostly on the drizzly side, followed by a brief dry spell overnight, then heavier rain setting in again on Tuesday lasting well into Wednesday with 20-40 mms again quite possible. Highs through the period generally 16-19 C and overnight lows 11-14 C. Winds rather light at first, becoming SE 20-30 mph then SW to W 25-40 mph by Wednesday. Some clearing, then showery on Thursday with gusty W to NW winds. A brief respite on Friday, then rain at times on Saturday, highs near 18 C.

Meanwhile, we drove through a hot, sunny day mostly but saw some isolated towering cumulus trying to develop into thunderstorms in dry areas well east of the coast here. It was as hot as 35 C on the car thermometer, then dropped rather steadily to 21-22 C in the coastal valley region. Looks like we will see some very gusty winds here on Monday and severe storms developing further inland into Alberta.

Anyway, had a fabulous rest and let's hope we can move this rainy spell along shortly before wasting too much of the summer.

Mothman

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Monday, 12 July, 2010
____________________
Had a quick look at the week and felt rather ill.

:eek:

let's hope we can move this rainy spell along shortly before wasting too much of the summer.

Indeed otherwise it may be lumped in with the last 3 summers.

Thanks as always M.T

dohouch

It's now official, Ireland has a - Monsoon Season-

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Monday, 10 p.m.
_____________________

Just tweaking a few details about the incoming strong weather system for mid-week. Tuesday is likely to be a day of slowly increasing winds, more low-level moisture in patchy rain and drizzle on SE winds, and outbreaks of heavier showers in the southwest by evening.

Wednesday looks somewhat volatile as very cool air aloft permits any moderate sized shower to develop hail quite readily, and thunder. Expect a mostly cloudy day with brief sunny breaks, widespread areas of thundery hail-producing showers, and winds turning more southerly then southwest at moderate speeds (20-35 mph).

By Thursday, expect some longer sunny breaks between strong showers, but gusty W to NW winds developing, and possible severe local storms as the hail, wind gust and thunder potential increases despite the lower total areal coverage of these cells as compared to Wednesday.

From then on, it seems like a gradually improving weather picture after one more outbreak of showers around Saturday. There are signs of blocking returning and this certainly increases the prospects of dry weather if not necessarily warmer temperatures, but eventually I expect the warm and dry conditions of mid-late June to return for parts of late July and August. In other words, while the rainfalls in early July will definitely be substantial (giving the whole month probably twice normal rainfalls) it may not become a washout summer in general.

Meanwhile, we have some very volatile weather developing over western Canada today, tornado warnings are out near Calgary Alberta, and winds over the interior lakes of B.C. have gusted to 90 km/hr behind the front. Here on the coast it is sunny with scudding cumulus in a 30-40 mph westerly gale, whitecaps on the nearby ocean bays and straits, as well as (I am told) on the interior lakes. It's a similar upper-level setup to the storm developing for your region on Wednesday, as a strong upper level low with very cool air aloft is moving across BC today and into Alberta tomorrow. Predicting the snow level to drop to 5,000 feet in the Rockies, which is just a little higher than some of Calgary's western suburbs.

doccy

Thanks MT for the updates and the time spent on these forecasts. I try and direct as many friends, family and workmates onto your posts for the daily weather forecasts.
You have a real talent, thanks for sharing it with our wet little island

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 13 July, 2010
__________________________

TODAY will be mostly cloudy although brighter in Ulster at times. Some rather light rain will develop across the southwest and move slowly further north and east through the afternoon. Amounts will be generally 3-5 mms. Winds will pick up a bit to ESE 10-20 mph, some mist may develop over hills, and the highs will be about 17-18 C. In some areas, what you might call a "soft day."

TONIGHT there may be an interval with dry or even clear conditions before heavier showers develop with increasing SE winds 15-30 mph, with lows only falling slightly from today's readings, to 12-13 C.

WEDNESDAY will produce heavier showers, some of them thundery with hail, and limited sunshine, in fact some areas will see low overcast and hill fog much of the day. Winds will tend to drop off to light and variable in western coastal regions but will stay moderate SE veering to SSW elsewhere as low pressure approaches the west coast. Rainfalls of 15-30 mms are possible, and highs will be about 16-18 C.

THURSDAY will become breezy or locally windy, and brighter between heavy thundery showers with hail a significant risk. Winds will become SW 20-35 mph with some higher gusts possible. After morning lows near 12 C expect a high of about 18-19 C.

FRIDAY will remain somewhat disturbed as winds veer slowly to west and then northwest, but there may be patchy areas of rain separated by brighter intervals rather than heavy showers, and temperatures will remain in about the same range, 12-18 C.

SATURDAY is currently looking reasonably dry until perhaps late afternoon in the west and overnight into Sunday elsewhere; the system approaching for Sunday is fairly weak and may not produce much more than 3-5 mms of rain on average spread out in several light intervals, so at present there is some optimism that the wet spell may not be too prolonged, as the following week continues to look fairly dry in comparison. Temperatures are likely to recover a bit too, and reach the low 20s at times.

We've had a boisterous weather day here on Monday (12th) and this continues across much of western Canada tonight with heavy thunderstorms in places, strong westerly winds and very cool temperatures. Here on the coast the high was about 20 C and it's only moderately cool in a strong westerly wind, but inland some places dropped to record low values (for daytime highs) and in central Alberta the city of Red Deer had an almost November-like day with temperatures near 7 C in the afternoon and winds gusting to 80 km/hr with heavy rain. The normal high there for July is 25 C.

Meanwhile the east coast heat wave moderated somewhat in the past few days although New York was close to 34 C today, but the month remains on pace to be the warmest July on record in some places.

lucy2010

Thanks as always MT.. Even Bastardi has my hopes up for the weather to improve .... http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather.. A great cheer me up after driving through floods on the N11....