Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

paulhac

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Thanks M.T. Pretty much a continuation of the current mediocrity so with the proposterously inflated Azores high to our SW keeping us in this woefully bland regime of weak, pointless passing fronts followed by foul looking diluted maritime sourced sunshine that just makes the low turd shaped cumulus and Sc transulcidus look all the more obnoxious and displeasing. Continuous gloom laden drizzle is preferable to this watered down, worthless junk.

Couldn't have put it better myself!!

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 2 August, 2010
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TODAY ... cloud will slowly increase from west to east, but this will leave many places dry for most of the day, as rain spreads gradually onto the west coast. Even here, it may not be a continuous rain, with 5-10 mms likely. The best chance of sunshine is evidently from the east coast around to the south coast. Highs will be 18-20 C.

TONIGHT ... intervals of rain spreading slowly east, eventually reaching the east coast, and 5-10 mms on average, with lows near 12 C.

TUESDAY ... variable cloud, rain tapering off to showers with some brighter intervals, rather warm, humid, highs 19-21 C.

WEDNESDAY ... mostly cloudy, showery, with blustery W to NW winds developing, risk of hail or thunder, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

THURSDAY ... variable cloud, only a few isolated showers, cool, highs near 17 or 18 C.

FRIDAY ... cloudy with a few showers or intervals of light rain, misty, cool with highs around 16-18 C.

OUTLOOK ... gradual improvements continue to be suggested (perhaps over-optimistically) by the models out beyond the more reliable 5-day period, but we can always hope ... if true, the models are suggesting more sunshine around next weekend into the following week and somewhat warmer temperatures.

Meanwhile, Sunday (1st) here was a cloudy day with watery sunshine at times by afternoon, and about 21-22 C for the high ... still very dry locally despite the close approach of some showers that missed us last night.

Looks like Colin, the third named storm of 2010, will be forming up soon northeast of Brazil and heading slowly for the general vicinity of Puerto Rico and the Bahamas. This could become a major storm as it's forming out in the central Atlantic with lots of time to mature.

Mobhi1

Been cloudy here all day so far and it's only 16C. Can't see it getting much above 17C today.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 3 August, 2010
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TODAY ... mostly cloudy with some patchy morning drizzle, possible a brief sunny interval around mid-day, then increasing cloud late afternoon, leading to heavier rain and gusty showers by evening. Warm and humid with highs of about 18-20 C. Winds WNW 15-25 mph backing to SW 10-20 mph.

TONIGHT ... cloudy with periods of rain, gusty winds and some heavier showers embedded, 5-10 mms of rain, lows 12-14 C. Winds SW 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... blustery morning showers, some clearing by afternoon, winds veering SSW to W 15-30 mph, fresher (less humid at least) with highs of 17-19 C.

THURSDAY ... partly cloudy, showery at times in northern counties, breezy with lows near 12 C, highs near 19 C.

FRIDAY ... showery with moderate SW winds, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

OUTLOOK ... gradual improvement through the following weekend, the week to follow looks more settled and perhaps a degree or two warmer by day (but cooler at night due to clearer skies).

Monday here was a partly sunny and warm day with highs near 25 C. It was the hottest day of the summer in Kansas and Oklahoma, with highs generally above 40 C and near 43 C in places. This heat was not incredibly humid, perhaps the corn crop has been harvested. Dew points were typically around 15 C. Meanwhile, Calgary in western Canada had a heavy thunderstorm which dropped the late afternoon temperature to just 12 C. :eek:

TD 4 continues not to be Colin yet, but probably will be soon ... however, the models give it little chance of becoming a hurricane. The track seems to be aiming past Puerto Rico towards the vicinity of Bermuda or possibly more like Bahamas and threatening Florida (in about a week), the uncertainty remains high. For the time being, this storm is heading west-north-west at a high rate of speed but should slow down later today.

secman

Heading to wedding on Fri and see MT is forecasting showery weather but on sun & mon last Met E are predicting heavy coast to coast heavy rain for Fri !

Secman

dacogawa

Hi M.T.

I'm wondering could you please add a cloud level forcast for the Perseid Meteor Shower (11th to 14th of August) as we trust you a lot more than the met!

I'm looking at heading to Wicklow on the night of Thurday 12th, would love to know the cloud levels so I could change my viewing spot if needed.

I know its over a week away but if you would be able to help out it would be great.

Thanks

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Tuesday, 8:45 p.m.
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The aforementioned heavier showers for this evening (west) and tonight (rest of the country) seem to be increasing in strength rather quickly and will be moving ashore about 10 p.m. over western Mayo, probably reaching the central (in terms of north-south) counties by about 0100h and the east coast by about 0400h. Some local rainfalls of 10-20 mms possible along the main track of this disturbance from about Mayo southeast towards Wicklow.

In response to the two posts above, I will try to update the outlook for later next week as the picture becomes somewhat more certain, right now the basic good news is that a less cyclonic pattern is being predicted on the models, so the chances of clear skies have to be at least measurable (this week we could pretty well say 10-20 per cent). As to Friday, their idea of steady rain and my idea of showers may give you a sort of upper and lower end of an index of weather misery which will hopefully be in stark contrast to all other aspects of the occasion. But I currently see Friday as being wet to start with a gradual trend to more showery conditions. So there may not be a lot of difference there actually. Hope this improves for you.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 4 August, 2010
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TODAY ... cloudy with a few breaks this morning, still the odd leftover shower although most of the heavier rain has moved on, winds W or WNW 15-30 mph, and there could be some isolated heavier showers mainly in the north and west later today, but generally only 2-4 mms more rain on average. Highs about 17 C.

TONIGHT ... variable cloud, some clear breaks, slight chance of showers, winds relaxing a bit to WNW 10-20 mph, lows 8-10 C.

THURSDAY ... increasing cloud, periods of rain by late afternoon or evening heavy in western counties, highs 16-18 C.

FRIDAY ... heavy morning showers, gusty winds, blustery (SSW 15-30 mph veering to WSW 20-35 mph), bright intervals and passing squally showers, risk of a thunderstorm with hail ... highs 16-18 C.

SATURDAY ... gradual improvements as winds relax to WNW 10-20 mph, just a few showers left over, in variable cloud with some bright or sunny intervals, highs near 17 C.

SUNDAY ... partly cloudy, a bit warmer, highs 18-19 C.

I will post an update for next week later, wanted to get this forecast posted.

Our day here on Tuesday was mostly sunny and quite warm, but there were some dying weak thundershowers around, moving east to west, not dropping any rain locally but a few rumbles of distant thunder. The high was about 26.
The heat wave continues in the central states, and is spreading towards the east coast, but there's a strong charge of very chilly air heading south from north central Canada that will collide with the heat by about Thursday, leading to a major severe weather outbreak in the eastern U.S. and southern Ontario. Meanwhile, Colin came and went, the remnant low continues to move rapidly westward towards Puerto Rico, and there's talk of a renewed flare-up by Friday somewhere near the Bahamas. Some models show this low eventually heading into the jet stream towards the general area of Iceland in about two weeks.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Wednesday 6 p.m.
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This is the promised update for next week's weather pattern. It currently looks as though the unsettled pattern will tend to hold on for the first part of the week and Ireland will remain in a rather cool, showery northwesterly flow until mid-week. However, models are suggesting that Colin will redevelop over the weekend near the Bahamas and move into the jet stream east of New England by about Monday, heading towards Iceland by about late Wednesday or Thursday. This will tend to swell up the Azores high and would suggest some optimism for the Perseids meteor shower viewing prospects, although the details on that will not be very clear for a few days yet. In any case, the signs for the nights of the 11th-12th and 12th-13th being at least partly clear are better than most nights in the next two weeks at this point, so that's relatively good news. Anyone hoping to catch a view of the possible aurora borealis display tonight might also be in luck, if you're patient, as there could be some clear breaks -- usually these displays peak around midnight to 0200h local time as the auroral display moves around the magnetic field opposite to the sun (although in major displays you can get a better view earlier than midnight). I had a look here last night but was unable to find any clear skies due to high overcast and smoke layers from forest fires. Hoping to have better luck tonight. The moon won't be a problem as it rises well after midnight.

Graces7

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

UPDATE _ Wednesday 6 p.m.
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This is the promised update for next week's weather pattern. It currently looks as though the unsettled pattern will tend to hold on for the first part of the week and Ireland will remain in a rather cool, showery northwesterly flow until mid-week. However, models are suggesting that Colin will redevelop over the weekend near the Bahamas and move into the jet stream east of New England by about Monday, heading towards Iceland by about late Wednesday or Thursday. This will tend to swell up the Azores high and would suggest some optimism for the Pleiades meteor shower viewing prospects, although the details on that will not be very clear for a few days yet. In any case, the signs for the nights of the 11th-12th and 12th-13th being at least partly clear are better than most nights in the next two weeks at this point, so that's relatively good news. Anyone hoping to catch a view of the possible aurora borealis display tonight might also be in luck, if you're patient, as there could be some clear breaks -- usually these displays peak around midnight to 0200h local time as the auroral display moves around the magnetic field opposite to the sun (although in major displays you can get a better view earlier than midnight). I had a look here last night but was unable to find any clear skies due to high overcast and smoke layers from forest fires. Hoping to have better luck tonight. The moon won't be a problem as it rises well after midnight.

We are hearing there re the forest fires; Salt Spring is still safe thankfully but all are fire watching there now. Used to see the "Merrie Dancers" frequently and clearly when lived on a North Isle off Scotland.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 5 August, 2010
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TODAY ... variable cloud with some isolated showers and some sunny intervals too, remaining mostly dry in the east through the day, but clouding up in the west with rain developing before evening, highs generally 17-19 C.

TONIGHT ... periods of rain, heavy at times, 20-30 mms possible (heavier amounts south-central), gusty SSW winds developing, foggy by morning and lows near 12 C.

FRIDAY ... rain clearing east, continuing heavy showers for part of the morning over Ulster and east coast of Leinster, brighter elsewhere and eventually to east coast as well, with more squally showers developing, winds veering to WSW 20-30 mph, risk of a thunderstorm too. Highs 16-18 C. Rainfall amounts of 10-20 mms additional.

SATURDAY ... partly cloudy, a few more showers mostly in Connacht and Ulster, winds W 20-30 mph, rather cool. Lows 7-9 C and highs 15-17 C.

SUNDAY ... models have shown quite a range of solutions, it's more likely to rain on Monday but some solutions show this rain already setting in by Sunday. I'm not too sure on that so will suggest some chance of a dry day at least to start, with increasing cloud and highs near 18 C.

MONDAY ... periods of rain, becoming more showery later, highs near 17 C.

And here's where there may finally be some good news. Most of the guidance agrees on a strong ridge of high pressure building up just to the west and southwest of Ireland but enveloping the country in warm, dry air by mid-week. This should set in fairly steadily after the Monday disturbance clears east on Tuesday, and could be well established by the following weekend. Potential here for highs into the 20s especially as winds may turn more to the east with time. This would suggest a good outlook for the Perseids meteor shower around the 11th-12th.

The disturbance (TD 4) that was Colin and may well become Colin again within 24-36 hours is likely to head rapidly around the Gulf stream waters east of North America towards southeast Newfoundland and eventually up towards Iceland, not being shown so far to interfere with the aforementioned ridge building.

The weather here on Wed 4th was dry, partly cloudy and quite warm, with a bit of smoke haze from distant fires well to our northeast. Some dry thundershowers were on the radar nearby but the haze kept them from being visible in the sky. We are expecting a bit of improvement with some showers by the weekend. Meanwhile, quite hot again across the central and now also the eastern U.S. but much colder air is rushing southeast towards Lake Superior, so today (meaning Thursday) will likely become volatile in the lower Great Lakes and east coast as a strong front develops.

surfjunky

Hey M.T. Cranium, thanks again for all your forecasting, we're getting married in south wicklow next Tuesday evening so fingers crossed that clearance happens earlier rather than later (we're hoping to have the ceremony outside if its anyway dry!!).

mitresize5

surfjunky wrote: »

Hey M.T. Cranium, thanks again for all your forecasting, we're getting married in south wicklow next Tuesday evening so fingers crossed that clearance happens earlier rather than later (we're hoping to have the ceremony outside if its anyway dry!!).

very best of luck with it - we got married this time last year in a marquee so I can remember how I felt at this stage checking every weather forecast available for weeks before hand .....

It turned out as one of the only dry days in July last year so hopefully it will work out for you too.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 6 August, 2010
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TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, passing showers, one or two becoming heavy with hail or thunder ... winds increasing to SW 15-30 mph ... highs near 18 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with periods of rain or drizzle, winds SW 10-20 mph, still rather warm and humid with lows near 12 C.

SATURDAY ... Gradually clearing up as showers diminish and move east, longer sunny intervals, winds fresh westerly 15-25 mph. Highs near 17 C.

SUNDAY ... Some clear intervals early morning, cool with lows near 8 C. Increasing cloud during the day, some showers likely in western counties, spreading further east by late afternoon. Highs near 18 C.

MONDAY ... showers or periods of rain, cool, fog developing over higher terrain, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

TUESDAY ... gradually improving to partly cloudy skies and just some widely separated showers in a fresh west to northwest breeze, highs near 17 C.

At this point, it looks as though a warmer and drier period will develop from about Wednesday to Saturday. Whether it lasts much longer than that seems uncertain with one model showing this warm ridge backing off again to the west by about Sunday allowing winds to become northerly. However, the timing is good for those who were asking about possible clear skies for the Perseids on 11-12-13 August.

Meanwhile, Colin has returned to active duty as a strong tropical storm that has Bermuda in its sights for Saturday night or Sunday morning, possibly as a cat-1 hurricane. After that, this storm is expected to head northeast towards Iceland or southeast Greenland. Any chance of it heading towards Ireland would seem to be low, but given the patterns so far this summer, can't be ruled out yet entirely.

We've had another hazy, very warm and smoky sort of day here on Thursday with a high of about 28 C. A cold front is edging down the coast towards us and hopefully will bring some showers about this time tomorrow.

The hot spell hit in full force on the east coast today but heavy storms developed in some areas and it's already cooling off again.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 7 August, 2010
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TODAY ... a mixture of cloud and sunshine with very few if any showers in the mix today, reasonably warm at 18 C or so.

TONIGHT ... clear breaks and rather cool, lows 7-9 C (could fall to 5 C in a few northern locations).

SUNDAY ... bright to start, slowly increasing cloud for most regions but cloudy from mid-morning in the west with rain to follow there, winds gradually freshening to SSW 15-25 mph. Highs 16-18 C (warmer east, south).

MONDAY ... The overnight period will bring rain, gusty SW winds 20-30 mph, and lows near 11 or 12 C, and 15-25 mms of rain, then the daytime will be quite blustery with frequent showers some of which could become thundery with hail, as winds pick up further to WSW 25-40 mph. It appears that we'll have to watch for severe storm development given the strong winds aloft. Highs about 17 C.

TUESDAY ... Still rather blustery and showery especially over Ulster and north Leinster, an improving trend in general as winds slacken somewhat by late afternoon and more sunny breaks develop, lows near 10 C and highs near 17.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, moderate NW winds, reasonably warm at about 19 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny, warmer away from the coasts, highs to 22 C.

OUTLOOK ... A warm, dry spell still seems very likely (the main uncertainty seems to be whether it will last a long time or peter out after the weekend).
Highs could be into the mid-20s as high pressure builds up over Ireland. This continues to look good for the Perseids meteor shower viewing.

Meanwhile, we are enjoying the first phase of a freshening west to northwest push of cooler Pacific air into this region, no rain yet although it has appeared just off to the northwest on radar, and Friday's high was about 22 under sunny and still rather hazy skies. Heat is building up over the western interior states and the east coast, while a few degrees cooler for the weekend (very nice actually at 28 C) will be back up into the mid-30s by Monday and Tuesday and it could last all week. TS Colin is heading for a direct impact on Bermuda, around 0300-0600 GMT Sunday, and just a note on the Russian heat waves (which seem unprecedented in modern times), as hot as it has been, the next 3-4 days could even be slightly hotter in Moscow and other parts of Russia affected, but the big change that's coming in Europe is that a trough oriented from the North Sea southeast to Italy is going to fill up and disappear, allowing the strong Azores high to ridge across into the heat ridge over eastern Europe. This could allow some of the intense heat to filter back westward next week and the following week into Germany and France and this may eventually affect the UK and perhaps even Ireland with very warm east to southeast winds. All of this could take 7-10 days to develop by which time it may become a fragile connection and break down again, but there is that chance of very warm weather developing in mid-August (certainly this would be a factor for anyone travelling on holiday).

weisses

Raining all morning here in Dingle .... Think I'll take that warm spell prediction with a big bucket of salt


You simply can't make a forecast for Ireland using just one line of text covering the whole of Ireland

doccy

weisses wrote: »

Raining all morning here in Dingle .... Think I'll take that warm spell prediction with a big bucket of salt


You simply can't make a forecast for Ireland using just one line of text covering the whole of Ireland

It's good enough for met.ie.

weisses

doccy wrote: »

It's good enough for met.ie.

and your point is ??

TheMilkyPirate

weisses wrote: »

Raining all morning here in Dingle .... Think I'll take that warm spell prediction with a big bucket of salt


You simply can't make a forecast for Ireland using just one line of text covering the whole of Ireland

M.T's forecasts are always spot on for me as they are today very sunny with just one or two showers. He can't give an exact forecast for every corner of ireland maybe your just having a very long shower. :rolleyes:

You try make a forecast.

weisses

baraca wrote: »

You try make a forecast.

No i just want him to make better (more accurate) ones even ME is putting more effort in their forecasting for today ...

Today will be mainly dry with bright or sunny spells developing. However, some scattered showers will occur until early afternoon mainly in the eastern half of the country. The top temperatures will be between 16 and 20 degrees, in a moderate northwesterly breeze.
Tonight

Tonight will be mainly dry with clear spells. It will be cool with minimum temperatures of 8 to 11 degrees and winds will be light northwesterly with a few patches of mist or fog.

I appreciate what he is doing but if i believe he is wrong or not up to scratch with his short term forecast in particular I will reply ....Last time i checked this wasn't the MT Cranium fan-page

WolfeIRE

weisses wrote: »

.Last time i checked this wasn't the MT Cranium fan-page

IT'S NOT :eek::( taxi! Driver...MT's fan page please and make it fast!

Have found MT's short term forecasts to be on the money a lot more often other forecasters. Are you basing your judgement on MT's contribution over one week or the last couple of years?

ME are great but MT always goes one step further and mentions specifics. He also hasn't the resources that others have, plus he gives up his free time for us boardsies etc etc.

Credit, where credit is due weisses.

ps...MT is not as good as the Postman though! And he never ever mentions farm animals in his forecasts.

weisses

I said in this thread and other threads that i appreciate what he does.

I said also that Ireland's weather cannot be fitted in 1 line of text in a forecast but when i read a forecast i want it to be as accurate as possible (even more now with that bloody radar not working )

I know its difficult predicting the Atlantic weather and all... wouldn't know where to begin myself .....

Postman is on hols and its weekend so I'm screwed :eek:

M.T. Cranium

No worries, I believe that rain was fairly localized (from watching the satellite loop, radar loops don't go back far enough) but the problem in more general terms is that I sleep from about 0900 to 1600 your time most days, and so one of two things needs to happen on these today forecasts, either they have to be error-free, or someone else from the weather forum needs to nip in and offer an update, correction etc. This has happened a few times in the past. I tend to stay up late here if the weather looks more complex than usual and make any adjustments myself. TBH, today's forecast looked like a fairly uneventful one and except for this patch of rain in the far southwest I think it went off okay. It has very little bearing on whether or not there will be a long warm spell in a week or so, that is currently being advertised on all the global models, here again TBH my only other resource on seven to fifteen day forecasts would be research that is not anywhere near complete yet on my own model, or consulting an oracle -- I don't have anything here that the national weather services don't have in terms of making long range forecasts, and perhaps I have less in some ways although I think what's generally available is more or less "it" at this point. It will be a real pain if these models decide to yank this warm, dry spell off the table now that they've edged closer and closer to nailing it down, but that won't be something I will personally feel badly about except to think that you're not enjoying it perhaps.

Anyway, I welcome all manner of feedback and certainly this is not a fan club and there isn't one anywhere else either, my facebook page was last updated when I invented the wheel.

But we shall try to be even more careful in the future. The odd thing is, I rarely give such a short forecast as I did today, I think my interest was forced more towards Monday's weather which looks fairly dramatic, and to the advertised warm spell coming along eventually. One-sentence forecasts for the whole country are the exception rather than the rule on this thread.

Deep Easterly

WolfeIRE wrote: »

And he never ever mentions farm animals in his forecasts :mad::mad::mad:

Totally agree Wolf. M.T never mentions the animals which is just not on! :mad::(

M.T. Cranium

Cows, sheep and wanton women could get wet late tomorrow. Is that more like it? :cool:

fishmahboi

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Cows, sheep and wanton women could get wet late tomorrow. Is that more like it? :cool:

Any areas in risk of flooding?

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 8 August, 2010
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Flooding? probably not that much rain.

TODAY ... despite patchy cloud this morning and even a few drops of drizzle, some sunshine will get through for a while, but cloud will thicken later this morning over Connacht and spread to counties in west Munster and Ulster a few hours in advance of some intermittent rain that should set in during the afternoon over the western third of Ireland. See "tonight" for amounts ... winds will freshen somewhat to SSW 15-25 mph and highs will vary from 17 C west coast to 20 C east coast and some southern counties. It's a bit iffy (by the Liffey) but Dublin and some other eastern counties could stay dry until nearly sunset, apart from the morning drizzle which appears fairly patchy.

TONIGHT ... rain will continue off and on, with some hill fog developing, and it will be rather mild and humid with lows near 13 C, rainfalls of 5-15 mms heavier in Connacht and later Ulster, but probably significant most other places too.

MONDAY ... unstable cool air with a low freezing level and gusty WSW winds should provide the trigger for some heavy showers that could become thundery with hail especially north central counties. There could be some brief sunny intervals too, but some rainfalls of 10 mms on a rather localized basis. Winds will become WSW 20-35 mph, and highs only 15-17 C. There could be a watch for severe storms. This unsettled weather will persist well into the overnight hours when lows will fall to 9-11 C.

TUESDAY ... still rather unsettled with gusty WNW winds 20-40 mph, passing showers, some of them briefly heavy, and highs near 16 C north, 18 C south. For the people who asked about Waterford, look in on Monday but I would say the afternoon might be passable although not necessarily perfect with the breeze and risk of a shower.

WEDNESDAY ... gradual improvement in a mixture of cloud and sunshine and a rather cool northerly breeze, but could become a very fine day in the south, lows near 8 C and highs near 19 C (17 C north).

THURSDAY to SUNDAY still looks fairly promising with higher pressure building up, so that there should be considerable sunshine, possibly some areas of lower cloud in the vicinity of the Irish Sea at times, and a slow rise in the temperature trend at least during the daytime, with the low to mid 20s in the equation eventually. There should be more informed speculation on this potential warm spell in the thread dedicated to this discussion (some of the models come out later than I make this forecast and some update every six hours, the first time being during MTC's beauty sleep time).

The general theme on the GFS model seems to be a warm spell that tries to build across Europe to link the Azores high to the heat ridge in Russia, makes a tenuous connection but sinks slowly south allowing the Atlantic back into the weather pattern in about two weeks' time. These projections are always very low-confidence, blocks can last a lot longer than models project sometimes.

Meanwhile, we've had rain here thank goodness, about 15 mms, and a cool high of 16 C on Saturday. Heat is building up almost everywhere else across the continent though and the east coast cities are expecting several days near 38 C (100 F) later this week. :eek:

Enjoy the nice weather and we'll keep tracking the Monday storm potential.

fishmahboi

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Sunday, 8 August, 2010
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Flooding? probably not that much rain.

TODAY ... despite patchy cloud this morning and even a few drops of drizzle, some sunshine will get through for a while, but cloud will thicken later this morning over Connacht and spread to counties in west Munster and Ulster a few hours in advance of some intermittent rain that should set in during the afternoon over the western third of Ireland. See "tonight" for amounts ... winds will freshen somewhat to SSW 15-25 mph and highs will vary from 17 C west coast to 20 C east coast and some southern counties. It's a bit iffy (by the Liffey) but Dublin and some other eastern counties could stay dry until nearly sunset, apart from the morning drizzle which appears fairly patchy.

TONIGHT ... rain will continue off and on, with some hill fog developing, and it will be rather mild and humid with lows near 13 C, rainfalls of 5-15 mms heavier in Connacht and later Ulster, but probably significant most other places too.

MONDAY ... unstable cool air with a low freezing level and gusty WSW winds should provide the trigger for some heavy showers that could become thundery with hail especially north central counties. There could be some brief sunny intervals too, but some rainfalls of 10 mms on a rather localized basis. Winds will become WSW 20-35 mph, and highs only 15-17 C. There could be a watch for severe storms. This unsettled weather will persist well into the overnight hours when lows will fall to 9-11 C.

TUESDAY ... still rather unsettled with gusty WNW winds 20-40 mph, passing showers, some of them briefly heavy, and highs near 16 C north, 18 C south. For the people who asked about Waterford, look in on Monday but I would say the afternoon might be passable although not necessarily perfect with the breeze and risk of a shower.

WEDNESDAY ... gradual improvement in a mixture of cloud and sunshine and a rather cool northerly breeze, but could become a very fine day in the south, lows near 8 C and highs near 19 C (17 C north).

THURSDAY to SUNDAY still looks fairly promising with higher pressure building up, so that there should be considerable sunshine, possibly some areas of lower cloud in the vicinity of the Irish Sea at times, and a slow rise in the temperature trend at least during the daytime, with the low to mid 20s in the equation eventually. There should be more informed speculation on this potential warm spell in the thread dedicated to this discussion (some of the models come out later than I make this forecast and some update every six hours, the first time being during MTC's beauty sleep time).

The general theme on the GFS model seems to be a warm spell that tries to build across Europe to link the Azores high to the heat ridge in Russia, makes a tenuous connection but sinks slowly south allowing the Atlantic back into the weather pattern in about two weeks' time. These projections are always very low-confidence, blocks can last a lot longer than models project sometimes.

Meanwhile, we've had rain here thank goodness, about 15 mms, and a cool high of 16 C on Saturday. Heat is building up almost everywhere else across the continent though and the east coast cities are expecting several days near 38 C (100 F) later this week. :eek:

Enjoy the nice weather and we'll keep tracking the Monday storm potential.

By the looks of things it looks as if the heavy rain should become intermittent by midnight on sunday

fishmahboi

fishmahboi wrote: »

By the looks of things it looks as if the heavy rain should become intermittent by midnight on sunday

Current track of rainfall withing 3 hours

WolfeIRE

only a light drizzle here this eve. has stopped completely now. Hopefully the effects of that approaching High are being felt already. Speaking of which people can track it's progress for next week here
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=180&mode=0&runpara=0

Looks good up to Sunday

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 9 August, 2010
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TODAY ... cloudy with a few rather brief sunny breaks in most parts of Ireland today, with outbreaks of drizzle or light rain this morning, followed by scattered heavier showers, probably more frequent in Connacht than elsewhere, rather fresh WSW winds 15-30 mph, and highs from 16 C north to about 19 C south coast, 17-18 C east. I hope to update this forecast late morning for the potential for heavier showers and any hail or thunder that might develop, but many places will probably avoid these. The area more at risk is probably Connacht and west Ulster, across to north Leinster. Rainfalls today will likely be quite variable but mostly around 5-7 mms (less across the south, until tonight).

TONIGHT ... heavier showers continuing in the north and the possibility of an outbreak of steady rain across the far south, with some south-central counties remaining dry in between these systems ... but generally cloudy and rather cool given the wind (WSW 15-30 mph) and lows near 10 C.

TUESDAY ... widely scattered morning showers, probably heavy in some places, but becoming brighter from west to east during the day, winds veering more to WNW at 20-35 mph, feeling rather cool unless sheltered from this wind, and highs 17-19 C (15-17 C Ulster). A further 5-10 mms of rain.

WEDNESDAY ... variable cloud, a cool northerly breeze at times, more cloud Ulster and east Leinster, brief showers in a few locations, lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C.

THURSDAY ... although somewhat similar to the above, more sun working into the mix, and less breezy especially western counties where it could be very pleasant ... lows near 8 C (some lower) and highs edging up to 19-20 C range especially inland west.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY ... this should be a warm and pleasant period although some places in eastern Ulster and southeast Ireland could be affected still by the slowly departing upper low (the incoming high at both upper and surface levels will be arriving slower than a bus on a wintry afternoon, and may stall just to the west of Kerry before spreading south and east, but it appears more likely than not that there will be more sun than cloud, reasonable daytime warmth (20-23 C) and lighter winds in this period). The way the models are behaving, I should comment that there's some risk of this warm spell being yanked away so keep your fingers crossed.

Beyond that, it may stay rather warm and settled for several more days then gradually shift back to a more cloudy and eventually showery pattern as the warm high sinks. However, some guidance is suggesting an eventual setup of a Scandinavian high that could turn the winds east then allow some of the warmer air over eastern Europe to filter west. So there is that chance of an extended warm, dry spell. I think you'll get a good sense of the probabilities by reading the discussion thread on the warm spell.

Today (Sunday 8th) was cloudy again here, with occasional drizzle but no further measurable rain, and a high near 18 C. I'm heading out in a while to see if it has cleared up and if there's any northern lights or meteors, if I see any I will post that in the thread. I continue to be fairly optimistic about the chances for seeing both the Perseids mid-week and the planetary-lunar conjunctions visible on Thursday and Friday evenings after sunset. Your chances might be better inland away from the east coast given the projected pattern, because it's likely to be 70-90 per cent cloudy over much of the U.K. and 50-50 over the Irish Sea in that time frame, with clearer skies being indicated for the inland central and western counties of Ireland.

Colin has gone missing somewhere in the Bermuda triangle, apparently he couldn't handle the task of breaking through the subtropical ridge, or he may plan a third life cycle? Otherwise, just hot hot hot across most of North America, expecting 35 C today on the east coast, 38 C most of the next few days.

jambofc

hi MT could you give me any detail's on if it's going to be dry or wet at 11.45am today in Trim as i have something to do outside at that time,also what direction will the wind be? and will humidity be high or low as i need to know what attire to wear?
your forecast was slightly off for yesterday and im a little bit peeved if im being honest :pac:




sorry MT couldn't resist,i think your forecasts are excellent and look forward to them every morning,to think you might get it wrong sometimes is just to much to handle considering all the effort and time you give to post FREE forecasts,i for one appreciate all your time and effort that you give to all of us for FREE and wouldn't dare to criticise anyone who gives up there own personnel free time,keep up the good work you never know you might get a PAID job in met.ie :pac:

weisses

jambofc wrote: »

hi MT could you give me any detail's on if it's going to be dry or wet at 11.45am today in Trim as i have something to do outside at that time,also what direction will the wind be? and will humidity be high or low as i need to know what attire to wear?
your forecast was slightly off for yesterday and im a little bit peeved if im being honest :pac:




sorry MT couldn't resist,i think your forecasts are excellent and look forward to them every morning,to think you might get it wrong sometimes is just to much to handle considering all the effort and time you give to post FREE forecasts,i for one appreciate all your time and effort that you give to all of us for FREE and wouldn't dare to criticise anyone who gives up there own personnel free time,keep up the good work you never know you might get a PAID job in met.ie :pac:

I think you would do very well in politics :pac:

jambofc

weisses wrote: »

I think you would do very well in politics :pac:

dont think you would :pac:


im to honest to be a politician

weisses

jambofc wrote: »

dont think you would :pac:


im to honest to be a politician

And a good comedian !! what a talent

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Monday, 1130h
_____________________

From the visible satellite imagery, there's a gradual increase in convective showery precip west of Mayo at this time suggesting that a few heavier showers may move inland this afternoon in Connacht and Donegal. A few other cells could reach sufficient height elsewhere to become convective. I think the coverage is going to be 10-20 per cent perhaps peaking at 30 per cent late afternoon, so that would be about the chance of seeing a heavier shower locally. Perhaps one or two of the other weather folk will drop by as MTC is shutting down for the night (rather belatedly) ... still cloudy here so no chance to see any auroral displays or meteors ... will return about 1700h to see what's transpired. Be good and play nice.

rhonin

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

UPDATE _ Monday, 1130h
_____________________

From the visible satellite imagery, there's a gradual increase in convective showery precip west of Mayo at this time suggesting that a few heavier showers may move inland this afternoon in Connacht and Donegal. A few other cells could reach sufficient height elsewhere to become convective. I think the coverage is going to be 10-20 per cent perhaps peaking at 30 per cent late afternoon, so that would be about the chance of seeing a heavier shower locally. Perhaps one or two of the other weather folk will drop by as MTC is shutting down for the night (rather belatedly) ... still cloudy here so no chance to see any auroral displays or meteors ... will return about 1700h to see what's transpired. Be good and play nice.

Those showers have started moving into Sligo town in the last hour. Very heavy one a few minutes ago. Looks like more on the way.

dacogawa

Hi M.T.

Could you give an update on the cloud situation for Thursday night/Friday morning (between 12 midnight/4am) in Dublin and Wicklow for the perseids shower please ? also if you could how is it looking on Wednesday night.

Thanks a million for all your help

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Monday 6:20 p.m.
________________________

Seems too good to be true, but the models continue to show widespread clearing through late Wednesday lasting for many days, with a slow warming trend that could end up in heat wave conditions. For the specific question of sky cover Wed and Thurs nights (or early Thurs and Fri say 00-03h) I would say the chances are fairly good in almost all areas except eastern Ulster, but the chances are probably best in the central to south coast counties. The one thing that concerns me a little especially for Wednesday night is that cloud is likely to be circulating around a low over the North Sea and backing up about as far west as Monaghan to a little north of Dublin out into the Irish Sea to southwest Wales. So at this time range, it's a little dicey to promise clear skies in Dublin and Wicklow but this is what the models suggest, for the time being I would say clear intervals and plan to go as far west as might be practical (I'm not sure if your question is related to a desire to plan a meeting location or just to get the latest update, because if you have any flexibility on location I would suggest finding a location further west to be safer from the cloud risk). The current models are moving all that cloud further east through the day Thursday so that by Thursday night the chances of good viewing should be more uniformly good except perhaps near the west coast due to onshore low cloud or fog banks (and these could be very localized).

I hope this helps more than confuses, but given the large amount of cloud that has been present for much of the summer, these are the best weather patterns we've seen for clear skies since June. I would plan to dress warmly as overnight lows especially up in the hills might be 5-7 C (remember, if you look for a higher spot, valleys get the cold air drainage and a warmer spot might be on a ridge or crest -- closer to the sea or in larger towns it would be closer to 10 C). Let's just hope there isn't a stubborn streak of cloud that hangs around over your chosen location, but I would imagine you could move at least 20-30 miles at the last minute for the viewing and I think if that's the case your chances would be very good.

Meanwhile, the 12z GFS run is also showing the warm spell attaining heat wave potential through the weekend with a peak in temperatures around Monday and Tuesday of next week with 25-27 C inland being attainable in a very light wind pattern (the high basically overhead). Sea breezes would keep coastal temperatures perhaps 18-22 C. Thursday to Saturday will be increasingly warm days leading into this hot spell, with highs for those three days generally near 20, 22 and 24 C. Looks like if you took this week and/or next for your holidays, you've hit the jackpot.

dacogawa

Thanks so much for the update M.T. I know a lot of people are interested in seeing the perseids shower and your help is invaluable.

Many, many thanks for this and all the great forcasts

pauldry

Ive been disappointed too many times this Summer to believe.

But they cant all be wrong. Surely wel get it this time EVEN in the NW:(:rolleyes:

fishmahboi

If bbc's rainfall radar is correct the south should have very little rainfall during tonight and tuesday

Cherrycola

pauldry wrote: »

Ive been disappointed too many times this Summer to believe.

But they cant all be wrong. Surely wel get it this time EVEN in the NW:(:rolleyes:

Please god ye do, as im heading up that part of the country for a week on saturday, and if i leave a hot balmy 25 in the midlands, for showers and cold in the NW i'll be seriously pi$$ed! :rolleyes:

M.T. Cranium

Expect the northern showers to die out somewhat, an area of rain may move some distance inland along the south coast, then a new trough will develop late tonight and form a new area of showers mainly over eastern counties absorbing the southern rainfall -- this will be updated in my morning forecast but I think it will be a slow clearance on Tuesday at best, with the upper low digging in a bit as it heads roughly west to east but slightly south of due east across Scotland tomorrow.

Just a reminder, new moon occurs tonight at 0308 GMT or 0408h summer time. What that means is that the sun and moon will be rising almost together although if you could see the moon at sunrise you would see it just to the right of the sun as it is now south of the ecliptic plane. Meanwhile, where I live the moon and the sun will be low in the west together as 0308 GMT is just after 8 p.m. today in this time zone. There are four planets waiting to greet the new moon this week, first Mercury, then more visible Venus, Saturn and Mars.

fishmahboi

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Expect the northern showers to die out somewhat, an area of rain may move some distance inland along the south coast, then a new trough will develop late tonight and form a new area of showers mainly over eastern counties absorbing the southern rainfall -- this will be updated in my morning forecast but I think it will be a slow clearance on Tuesday at best, with the upper low digging in a bit as it heads roughly west to east but slightly south of due east across Scotland tomorrow.

Just a reminder, new moon occurs tonight at 0308 GMT or 0408h summer time. What that means is that the sun and moon will be rising almost together although if you could see the moon at sunrise you would see it just to the right of the sun as it is now south of the ecliptic plane. Meanwhile, where I live the moon and the sun will be low in the west together as 0308 GMT is just after 8 p.m. today in this time zone. There are four planets waiting to greet the new moon this week, first Mercury, then more visible Venus, Saturn and Mars.

Are these showers going to be situated mainly in the northeast and are these going to be thundery showers?

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Monday, 11:45 p.m.
__________________________

Rain off the south coast seems to be moving past without having much impact on land. Meanwhile heavy showers (with thunder possibly) are about to hit Donegal and look set to move across Derry and Antrim later tonight. They may not extend much further south for much of the overnight, then more widely scattered showers will probably develop in the morning likely more concentrated over north-central counties than elsewhere but not confined to any one region, look for these to form in extended bands parallel to the winds from the west or WNW. Rest of forecast as before.

cocoemma

Cranium.. Is there a possibility that some thunder could hit Kildare??

fishmahboi

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

UPDATE _ Monday, 11:45 p.m.
__________________________

Rain off the south coast seems to be moving past without having much impact on land. Meanwhile heavy showers (with thunder possibly) are about to hit Donegal and look set to move across Derry and Antrim later tonight. They may not extend much further south for much of the overnight, then more widely scattered showers will probably develop in the morning likely more concentrated over north-central counties than elsewhere but not confined to any one region, look for these to form in extended bands parallel to the winds from the west or WNW. Rest of forecast as before.

Also is there any chance of the rain tonight and the showers (what time will they develop?) hitting wicklow

Looks like the showery rain has developed over northern Ireland

M.T. Cranium

Just before we get to the forecast update, I had this question that perhaps others might want to ask, and here's the Q and A ... have sent the person a private message answer (which was a bit shorter, thought of a few things to add) but we won't get into who asked.

Hey M.T ... out of curiosity what method do you use to forecast ?

Same general method as everyone else, I compare the various forecast models, keep an eye on the current details, rely on some experience which includes which models work better at various times, hope for the best, ask other people on the weather forum what they think or try to eavesdrop in the threads, add in a bit of my own research thrown into the mix once or twice a month (would be more but Irish weather not very active) -- my research which is unconventional is more to do with understanding structure and getting an idea of how to do long-range forecasts where there are no models to guide us.

In other words, I guess and then hide under the covers until it's over.

And sure, I do compare with other forecasts especially in critical situations.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 10 August, 2010
____________________________

The warm high seems to be struggling a little bit in the model forecasts, I think the premature death of Colin has been a bit of a negative factor for absolutely dry and warm conditions as there is now less to suck moisture out of the high (tropical storms are good at that, but Colin in fact just sucked period). However, this just means it might require a bit of mobility to find the sun or the clear night skies. Read on ...

TODAY ... A few showers are working their way south from about Galway to Louth, while the day starts partly sunny and mild in the south (rain just offshore could spread some cloud and drizzle onto south coast beaches and headlands). Later in the day, more extensive bands of showers are likely to develop out of the spread out remnants of that central frontal trough, and become more northwest to southeast in their tracking, as winds veer around slowly to WNW 15-30 mph. This won't prevent some sunshine and a rather changeable day for many, with some warmish sunny intervals, some pelting showers and perhaps the odd rumble of thunder or small hail. It also does not look like everyone will get rain, the coverage will be something like 40% at worst. Highs will be 15-17 C north to 17-19 C south. The far north from Donegal to Antrim might see some sharp showers too from a more northerly source.

TONIGHT ... showers will tend to die out with longer clear intervals, but there will be a few leftover brief showers even well after midnight, and lows of about 6-8 C in a northwest flow (10 C west coast and inner cities).

WEDNESDAY ... Eastern Ulster and possibly Meath and north Dublin will stay under considerable cloud with frequent light showers in a gusty NW wind, part of the backwash from the low which is only going to be retreating into the North Sea at a snail's pace (this means most of England and Scotland will be cloudy and showery too) ... but elsewhere, it should be mainly dry with about an equal measure of cloud and sunshine. Some south coast locations could do better on the sunshine, and highs will respond, with 15-17 C in the northeast to 18-20 C south central.

WED NIGHT (for the sky watchers) still looks fairly promising but there will be more cloud right along the east coast than inland, and in general it will be less windy and quite chilly away from the coasts and cities, 5-7 C possibly for the lows.

THURSDAY will continue about the same with more cloud than sun in the northeast, considerable sunshine further west, and just the slight chance of a sprinkly light shower here or there lasting a few minutes. Highs will be generally 19-21 C.

THURSDAY NIGHT still looks good for widespread clear skies and the only risky areas for cloud seem to be near the east coast and especially the northeast and southeast corners. Also some low cloud and drizzle will form at times near the west coast. Lows will be 5-8 C inland.

FRIDAY will become a bit warmer again with a mixture of cloud and sun, highs of 19-22 C. Low cloud and drizzle could be wafting about near the north and west coasts in a very light NW flow.

WEEKEND ... there are some indications of intervals of low cloud, mist and drizzle trying to spoil the warm, dry pattern in some places -- I think the best bet for warm sunshine might be counties from Kerry up to Offaly and back down to Waterford. Other regions may have longer cloudy intervals. This will affect the pattern of temperatures, making 23-25 C possible mainly in the inland south to the south coast in light northeast winds. Other regions may be closer to 20 C and suffer a bit more cloud but we may get a better read on this tomorrow.

The warm spell is still expected to peak around Monday-Tuesday when it could get as warm as 25 C or so.

Our Monday here started wet and ended up sunny after 3 p.m., but it was only about 19 C. Heading out after this to check for clear skies and auroral sightings. Hot and humid across much of the continent south of the border, and relatively warm and unsettled across southern Canada. The Russian heat wave still looks "locked in" for many more days and will also tend to drift west somewhat as a front pushes towards the Baltic.