Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Friday, 0010h
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Anyone wondering if the rain now spreading into Kerry is the main event should be advised that the main event is still out around 14-15 W and heading in rapidly but won't hit until about 0300h, however this batch now coming in looks like 3-5 mms by itself, so expect another 15-20 mms after that comes and goes.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 1st of October, 2010
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TODAY ... periods of rain this morning, heavy at times, with south-southwest winds of 20-35 mph, then brighter from west to east around mid-morning towards early afternoon for eastern counties ... winds veering to west-southwest and gusty for a while before dropping off to 15-25 mph. A few more showers developing, possibly thundery in a few spots ... much of the rain has already fallen but expect a further 10 mms or so. Highs 17 or 18 C.

TONIGHT ... cloudy with occasional showers, hill fog becoming more of a general mist or patchy low-level fog, eventually some areas in very poor visibility with 3-5 mms of rain on average ... very mild with lows 9-12 C.

SATURDAY ... variable cloud, some heavy to torrential showers developing in Connacht especially but more scattered elsewhere, some with hail and thunder (western Mayo and nearby parts of Connacht as well as south Donegal could see some squally conditions). Rainfalls quite variable but between 5 and 20 mms ... highs 16-17 C. Winds WSW 15-25 mph with some briefly higher gusts.

SUNDAY ... overnight rain or drizzle, fog, with morning lows near 10 C ... the weather may brighten a little in western counties by afternoon but it seems likely to stay wet and rather gloomy in the east ... meanwhile the UK will be pounded by heavy rain and strong southerly winds, but in Ireland it should be a more moderate southeast wind backing to northeast ... highs 14-15 C and rainfalls varying from 5 mms northwest to 15-25 mms southeast (for the Ryder Cup event in Wales there could be a real downpour and I wonder if the competition will finish on Sunday at all).

MONDAY ... variable cloud, breezy, more showers or thundershowers developing, possibly heavy at times ... lows near 11 C and highs near 16 C.

TUESDAY ... mark this day down for a possible heavy rain and/or strong wind event with a sharp trough approaching, the remnants of "Nicole" ... timing may change more towards Tuesday night or even Wednesday but mid-week in general blustery and possibly stormy. Temperatures near 15 C.

After that blows through, another deep storm is indicated but this one is going to pull up short and head north, drawing much warmer air north from Biscay ... it may rain in Ireland at least in the west but some dry, warm periods may develop too (that's more likely for the U.K. and France).

There's nothing very chilly showing up for the first half of October on most of the charts. On the east coast of the U.S., a very warm September has ended with a massive rainstorm (over two feet of rain has fallen in parts of North Carolina and nearly four inches today in Washington, that's 100 mms). This is the remnant low of Nicole, and it's heading through NYC and Boston today on its way to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on Saturday. This storm is followed by a much cooler regime that could see snow at higher elevations and off the Great Lakes at times before it warms back to normal next week.

The west coast continues to sizzle and it was even quite warm here today (Thursday 30th) at about 23 C under unbroken sunshine (there is no snow on the north shore mountains even at 1500m).

I may update today's forecast if anything blustery develops, but it seems that the system is staying rather sedate as it moves through, so far.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Friday, 1130h
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Conditions are becoming favourable for locally severe showers with hail and thunder across Connacht from about 1230 to 1700h ... satellite imagery shows this development over the near Atlantic waters and the cells should be moving inland this afternoon. Gusts to 50 mph, hail and locally heavy rain will accompany some of these showers, and there is a slight risk of a waterspout, funnel cloud or weak tornado being sighted.

Hooter23

When is tropical storm Nicole due to hit New York I've read that subway might flood are they really going to get that much rain:eek:

http://gizmodo.com/5652348/new-yorks-subway-may-not-survive-tropical-storm-nicole

M.T. Cranium

It's moving through NYC at the present time, winds there have just shifted from south to northwest and rainfalls of 2-3 inches have been recorded. This is somewhat less than further west in NJ and into central New York state where 3-6 inches fell in the past day or so. There could be some local urban flooding but maybe not enough to stop the NYC subways. It was worse further south and there are a lot of flood problems across NC and VA.

WolfeIRE

very heavy shower here. plenty of hail mixed in

EDIT: damn...wrong thread. hehe

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 2 October, 2010
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TODAY will feature some heavy local showers with hail and thunder, spreading across parts of Connacht, west Munster and south Leinster this morning and further to the north and east by this afternoon. Ulster will stay dry and partly cloudy longer (except for Donegal) but eventually all regions will get some of this activity. It will remain strongest in Mayo and Galway as well as some parts of the southwest and southeast. Local rainfalls could reach 25 mms although the average will be closer to 5, and hail may be quite widespread. There will also be some longer sunny intervals in a few places. Winds moderate SSW (10-20 mph with some higher gusts) and highs about 16 to 18 C.

TONIGHT the showers will begin to die out except for a prolonged interval of rain lingering in the southeast and up the east coast about as far as Dublin, so that lows further west and north may drop off to 5-7 C while staying up around 10 to 12 C in some parts of the southeast. Rainfalls of 10-15 mms in the southeast, winds backing to SE 10 mph.

SUNDAY will be mainly cloudy with some brighter intervals developing in the central counties between two areas of more persistent cloud and light showers covering parts of the southeast and the west coast. In those areas there may be low cloud and fog over hills in some places. Winds will continue rather light from a generally SE to E direction, returning more to the S then SW later in the day in the west. Highs will be 15-16 C. (note some heavy rains will develop into southern parts of England and possibly into Wales by afternoon, from a southerly direction).

MONDAY will be cloudy with frequent showers and blustery S-SW winds at times, mild and rather humid with lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with showers at first, becoming blustery with periods of rain developing in strong SSW winds later, lows near 11 C and highs near 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will see the end of that system with gradual clearing and less blustery SW winds continuing, highs near 17 C.

THURSDAY could bring a pleasant break from the unsettled weather, but it seems likely to return and push some rain at least into western counties by Friday. The near Atlantic will become very windy from a southerly gale but this may stay offshore and blow more towards Iceland eventually, as swelling high pressure over Scandinavia late next week may be gradually taking more charge of the situation and setting up a more settled SE'ly weather pattern by the following weekend and towards mid-month.

We enjoyed a third ideal day in a row here with sunshine and highs in the lower 20s on Friday the first. The remnant low of Nicole raced across New England today and brought rainfalls of 3 to 6 inches to many parts of the northeast U.S. but it has begun to clear with much cooler weather setting in there tonight (local time). That low is now in New Brunswick, Canada and heading east on pace to arrive in some form in Ireland by about Monday night or Tuesday.

Please watch the ongoing thunderstorm and weather report threads here for new ideas about storm development later today as it's very likely yours truly will be asleep (again). :cool:

M.T. Cranium

STORM ALERT _ Saturday 2 Oct 2010 _ 1145h
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Have posted a separate thread to alert boards readers in general, severe storm complex on radar and from report on this forum, covering counties Limerick and Cork especially around Mallow by 1215-1230, a line of storms that may contain large hail and torrential downpours, and has reportedly frequent lightning strikes, moving northeast 20-30 mph, towards a line from Limerick City to Mallow to near Cork. It may move just north of Cork but people around that city should be on alert too.

With this severe storm there is a slight risk of a weak tornado developing or more likely some funnel clouds being sighted. Hail is probably a more likely risk, and there could be torrential rains locally.

Will advise on further developments and eventual dissipation as this line may hold together well into the "midlands" counties.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 3 October, 2010
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TODAY ... Cloudy with a few bright or even sunny intervals, although rather misty near the south and west coasts much of the day ... any low cloud and light rain around this morning may break up for a while, then showers will redevelop although nothing too heavy seems likely (2-4 mms here and there) ... winds rather light SE to S, veering more SW to W later on ... breezier in the north by this evening. Highs today about 15-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals, mist returning and becoming foggy before morning ... a few light showers with some stronger SW winds developing towards morning ... lows 7-10 C.

MONDAY ... cloudy with a few sunny breaks, blustery showers developing, possibly becoming heavy or even locally severe by mid-day and afternoon, winds SW 30-45 mph with some higher gusts ... highs 15-17 C. Rainfalls on average 15-25 mms.

TUESDAY ... windy at times with squally showers, passing quickly, brighter intervals mixed in, winds SW 25-45 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

WEDNESDAY ... cloudy with some breaks, more showers in a moderate SW wind, backing at times to southerly, then falling off by evening to light. Lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY ... mainly dry with variable cloud, some chance of rain near the west coast, winds moderate SE to S but very strong to gale force (50-55 mph) gusts near the west coast by late in the day from a deep ocean storm out around 20 W ... lows near 6 C and highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY ... continuing breezy or locally windy in the west, intervals of light rain perhaps confined to western half and south coast, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C. Winds backing to SSE 20-40 mph.

WEEKEND ... cloudy with some light rain or drizzle, tending to be drier in some east central counties, a rather cool E-SE wind developing, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

This pattern may evolve gradually into an easterly backing to northeast, with rather dry conditions generally but the chance of isolated brief showers from the Irish Sea near the east coast at times. There may eventually be some frost from this pattern mid-month.

We enjoyed yet another fine day here on Saturday, with a high of about 19 or 20 C. The weather across North America is generally closer to average than most of the past few weeks, staying hot and dry in the southwest, and rather chilly near the Great Lakes. The tropical scene has gone rather quiet with a slight chance of a named storm mid-week near the Virgin Islands.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Sunday, 2:00 p.m.
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Just an advance ALERT for strong winds and squally showers due to arrive in the west on Monday around early to mid-afternoon, then across the country quite rapidly as the system is moving at about 50-60 mph (it is currently out around 30 deg W but well out ahead of the parent low which was the extratropical hybrid from Nicole).

Backing up to the rest of today, it should remain dry in eastern Ireland while the west continues to see scattered but rather light showers. This activity will tend to die out after sunset and the overnight lows may be a little more chilly than most recent nights, in the 4-7 C range, except closer to the west coast where a breeze will keep readings closer to 9-10 C.

Monday should start out with just variable cloud and isolated showers, with a moderate S to SW wind developing. Then the aforementioned frontal system will come racing in with a significant period of wind and rain, and we'll be watching for any local storm development with this. Highs on Monday should average
16-17 C.

Storm 10

Watched the Met office weather for the week ahead and they show a large low South of Ireland by Friday, they said its unlikely to cross the country and will move away North, however I watched the UK forecast for the week ahead and they show the opposite saying it will bring gales and heavy rain to the UK and cross over Ireland.

Who do I trust in this one

M.T. Cranium

At the moment, the deep low in question here is shown moving north towards Iceland out around 20-25 W on Thursday and Friday, on most of the models, so I think the first of the two ideas is more likely. However, for western Ireland you may catch a fair bit of the wind from this on Thursday night with the rain edging in at times. Not sure what the U.K. idea was based on, but perhaps there was some confusion with the tail end of the Wednesday frontal system which will develop further once it moves through Ireland and will in fact give some gales and heavy rains in England on Wed night and Thursday morning before moving away further east. That system will not affect Ireland as much.

Now that I've said all that, we need to keep in mind that this is a 4-5 day forecast for the deep low, but the usual error in these cases takes the lows further out to sea, I've found (like 25-30 W, and at that distance the wind impacts would be reduced).

In general what's happening on the large scale is that the persistent high over the Baltic regions this past month shows signs of retrograde motion (heading west in other words) later this week and next week. That will force this deep low to try to move north but even there it will get trapped and weakened eventually. Then the surface winds should start to back from this week's persistent S-SW more to SE and then E-NE over time as the high ridges west into Iceland. These retrograde episodes usually end with a northerly as the high either weakens or moves further west to allow the arctic jet stream to get back south to join the subtropical jet stream which meanwhile is forced well to the south by all this "wrong-way" motion.

Anyway, watch the forecast evolution on this Thursday storm out in the ocean, just in case the models do start to indicate a closer encounter with Ireland.

Storm 10

Thanks for that info MT very well explained to a novice

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 4 October, 2010
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ALERT for strong winds and squally showers especially in Connacht and west Munster this afternoon, spreading further east by this evening.

TODAY will start out sunny in eastern counties with a rapid increase in higher cloud in western Ireland. By mid-day rain will be spreading into the west and southerly winds will have risen to 25-40 mph. The east will have the higher cloud by then but it will stay rather bright and not quite as windy, S 20-30 mph. By late afternoon the west will have some lashing showers and wind gusts to near 60 mph in exposed locations (40-45 mph fairly common), with some squally and perhaps thundery showers and hail. The light rain showers out ahead of this front will be into the east by late afternoon. Highs will be generally about 15-16 C.

TONIGHT the squally showers and strong winds will cross the country by about midnight, with winds veering from S to SW and gradually falling back to around 20-30 mph before dawn. The heavier showers will taper off to more isolated light showers and it may clear for intervals after midnight, with lows generally 8-10 C. The total rainfalls from today and overnight should average about 10-15 mms. A few locations could see 25 mms.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will be fairly similar with moderate SW winds, frequent showers but also some sunny intervals, and temperatures of about 8-10 C early in the day to 15-16 C mid-afternoon. Rainfalls of about 3-5 mms each day will be recorded and some of the showers could become thundery with hail.

THURSDAY at present looks rather windy in the west, as gale to storm force SSE winds develop offshore towards a maximum around 15-20 W due to a deep ocean storm moving slowly north. Rain from this may appear on the outer west coast and the cloud will spread over most other parts of Ireland although it could be sunny at times in Leinster and Ulster. Winds will rise to about 30-50 mph from the SSE on the west coast, but will stay closer to 20 mph further east. Following a rather chilly morning low of 3-7 C the highs will be 15-17 C.

FRIDAY will see the rain and gusty winds making some progress east but as the storm will be looping back to the west and south, these very strong gusts should subside after a while and the winds may back somewhat from
S to SE and fall back to 20-30 mph. Rainfalls of 3-7 mms appear likely but it could become a heavier rain in some western counties for a while. Highs on Friday will be about 15-16 C.

THE WEEKEND will continue to see mild air coming up from France towards Ireland on moderate SE winds, and whatever cloud and rain is left from the slowly decaying ocean storm may break into light showers but cloud will tend to remain longer. Highs will be around 16 or 17 C with nights bringing lows of near 7 C.

NEXT WEEK the dry, rather cool air now over Scandinavia under strong high pressure will begin to drain out towards the Atlantic low, backing winds further to ESE then ENE over time into next week ... the results are likely to be a period of rather cool but not overly cold weather with more of a clearing trend allowing for frosts to develop at night in some areas. But there could be some lingering cloud and isolated showers especially in the Dublin area from the winds off the Irish Sea. This is a weather pattern that can bring some rather warm temperatures to the west coast. Eventually once the Scandinavian high moves far enough west, northerly winds can set in around mid-month and there could be a few rather chilly days with snow possibly appearing on the highest peaks in chilly showers. That would be as far off as the 15th or later.

By the way, today will probably remain fairly dry for the Ryder Cup matches, although rain or drizzle is moving north through England and could brush the Newport area too. Of course the heavier weather moving into Ireland won't get to Wales before evening.

Meanwhile, here on Sunday 3rd, we had a cloudy but reasonably tolerable day with highs of about 17 C. A weak front is moving through but rainfalls with it are trace amounts. The eastern U.S. has cooled off considerably and highs were in the 15-17 C range with northeast winds in the larger cities. Not much action on the tropical front today.

Watch for updates and other threads on today's developing weather.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Monday, 9:45 p.m.
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A few locally heavy showers have developed in the wake of the earlier front and one in particular looks thundery, moving into Clare from the southwest, Wolfe IRE this may be heading your way. These will be rather limited in extent so there's about a 20% chance of getting one in any given location now to midnight, followed by a 10% chance after that as they tend to die out even more. Otherwise forecast as per the above.

It is cool, cloudy and raining here, 14 C at 1:45 p.m.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 5 October, 2010
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TODAY ... partly cloudy and breezy (windy at times in some coastal and higher locations) with a few showers, slight chance of thunder and hail ... winds SW 20-40 mph ... highs 14-15 C ... some heavier showers by late afternoon in west and south.

TONIGHT ... the heavier showers continuing to move northeast across central and eastern Ireland ... more light showers to follow ... winds SW 15-30 mph ... lows near 7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... partly cloudy with showers, cool and breezy ... winds SW 15-30 mph ... highs 14-15 C.

THURSDAY ... cloudy west, dry at first but some rain by afternoon, becoming very windy late in the day (SSE 30-50 mph) ... partly cloudy east, slight chance of light rain by late in the day ... milder in general, after a rather chilly start (lows 3-7 C), highs reaching 17 C.

FRIDAY ... continuing quite breezy (SSE 20-40 mph) with periods of rain, some of these rather heavy at times in the west ... lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY should continue mild and will probably turn dry as the rain edges back west with the departing low, allowing for longer bright intervals and some sunshine ... winds backing to SE 15-30 mph ... lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY could become even a bit warmer as moderate east winds bring in some dry and potentially warm air especially towards the western counties where a land breeze will boost highs to 19-20 C (highs 16-17 C near the east coast). There may be some longer sunny intervals but with a slight chance of low cloud and local drizzle or fog near the east coast.

LATER NEXT WEEK it should turn a bit cooler as winds become more northeast and cooler air mixes in, lows of 4-6 C (psssibly local ground frost) and highs near 14 C.

Today (Monday 4th) was cloudy here with a bit of light rain, clearing this evening ... it was quite cool with highs only 14-15 C. The east coast of the U.S. has also turned very cool and windy (from the NE) with scattered outbreaks of light rain.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 6 October, 2010
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TODAY ... mostly cloudy with a few brief sunny breaks this morning in the east, but periods of light rain already underway in western counties will move further east, possibly avoiding some southeast counties, and bringing 2-4 mms of rain to most other counties. Winds moderate SSW 15-25 mph, highs around 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... cloudy with a few clear breaks, showers ending, some fog patches, winds backing to SSE 15 mph, lows near 8 C.

THURSDAY ... cloudy with some brighter intervals mostly in eastern counties, outbreaks of light showery rain mostly near the west coast, which will also see some rather strong southerly winds 30-50 mph by late in the day, while elsewhere it remains just moderately breezy ... milder with highs 16-18 C.

FRIDAY ... intervals of cloud and sun, a few outbreaks of light rain but not very widespread, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C in south to southeast winds of 15-25 mph.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY ... mostly dry and rather warm, rather cloudy for the south and west but some sunny breaks in the east and north, with winds from the southeast at about 15 mph ... lows near 7 C and highs near 19 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... continuing warm and dry for most, winds backing slowly to the east, making for slightly cooler conditions around Dublin but perhaps even warmer than the weekend in western counties (in other words, possibly near 20 C).

LATER IN THE WEEK ... continuing mostly dry but turning a bit cooler as winds back further to E-NE, highs generally 14-16 C, nights becoming quite cool and with light frosts in places.

Meanwhile, we enjoyed a fairly sunny day here on Tuesday (5th) with a cool breeze from the east, and highs of about 15 C. The east coast of the U.S. remains quite cool in a northerly flow. Tropical storm Otto may form at any time north of Puerto Rico but looks rather weak and should stay well east of Bermuda if it does start moving north. The strong ocean storm forming in the east-central Atlantic will stay far enough west of Ireland that its strongest winds will be 200-400 miles offshore tomorrow, but it will be blowing almost at hurricane strength well out to sea (SSE 50-70 mph). This storm is apparently going to circle around counter-clockwise and end up in a weaker state northwest of Spain by the weekend.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 7 October, 2010
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TODAY ... mostly cloudy but with some brief sunny breaks ... outbreaks of light rain will be confined mostly to the south and west coast counties, but could make brief advances into other regions ... but average rainfalls may be only trace to 2 mms ... rather warm with highs near 17 C ... becoming quite windy at times in the west, with SSE winds of 30-50 mph developing, more like 20-40 mph further east.

TONIGHT ... cloudy, mild, more intervals of light rain ... winds backnig somewhat to SE 15-30 mph ... lows 9-12 C.

FRIDAY ... cloudy with sunny intervals, just a little patchy drizzle or light rain in the morning near the south coast ... winds SE 20-40 mph ... highs 18-19 C.

SATURDAY ... showers redeveloping across the south and spreading towards the west coast giving 1-3 mms locally, but brighter intervals following ... likely staying dry in Leinster and Ulster into northern Connacht, some sunny intervals ... winds generally SE 15-30 mph, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

SUNDAY ... variable cloud, some longer sunny intervals, slight chance of a brief shower ... lows near 11 C and highs near 19 C (could hit 20-21 C in western counties) ... winds ESE 15-30 mph.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... little change, partly cloudy, breezy, mild to warm, lows near 10 C and highs near 20 C away from onshore winds in E-SE winds of about 20-25 mph.

The weather should remain dry and at least partly sunny through the week, and now it's not looking quite so much like a cooling trend will develop very quickly, although sea breezes will probably be somewhat more intrusive and so highs may fade a bit to 17-18 C. Nights will likely get a bit cooler too, in the 5-7 C range. The northerly we were speculating about seems to be pushed back well into the long range now, which may mean a non-event.

Today here (Wed 6th) was clear and rather warm at about 20 C. The east coast has been warming gradually and it has turned quite warm across most of the continent. Parts of Arizona got unusual tornadoes and hail storms with a cold front. Meanwhile, Subtropical storm Otto is nearly hurricane strength and could be re-classified as a hurricane by tomorrow. It's heading for the Azores, where winds are currently 30-40 mph from the west due to the ocean storm forming near 25 W. That is going to pump up the warmer air and gusty south winds for Ireland but if anyone's heading out into the near Atlantic be aware of force 8-10 winds out around 12-15 W later today. The maximum gusts for places like Belmullet should be around 45-50 knots.

Just to clarify, that ocean storm is most likely to stay away from Ireland, as it loops around to the west and then back towards Portugal over the next four or five days. Small amounts of rain will spread in from time to time until Saturday.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 8 October, 2010
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TODAY ... mostly cloudy, but dry, although a few outbreaks of light rain more likely in western counties ... amounts only trace to 2 mms ... rather warm despite a gusty SE wind 20-35 mph ... highs near 18 or 19 C.

TONIGHT ... partly cloudy, very mild, SE winds 10-20 mph, lows 11-13 C.

SATURDAY ... most regions dry, but some rain mid-day and afternoon in Kerry and nearby parts of Cork, Limerick ... 2-5 mms there, otherwise trace to 2 mms ... some sunshine breaking through in Leinster and Ulster by mid-day, winds continuing SE 15-25 mph, highs near 20 C.

SUNDAY ... some light rain near south coast early morning, otherwise, partly cloudy with longer sunny intervals, lows near 11 C and highs 19-21 C. ... winds SE 15-25 mph.

MONDAY-TUESDAY will continue rather warm and dry with winds backing more to an easterly direction. There should be some sunshine each day, and highs will vary from near 18 C east coast to near 21-22 C west coast.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY will continue dry and partly sunny but it won't be quite as warm with considerably cooler nights (lows 3-7 C) and days near 16 C.

A more unsettled period may follow as the strong blocking high breaks down to some extent.

Today (Thursday 7th) we had a similar day to your own, with cloudy skies, southeast winds and rather warm temperatures near 18 C. There have been a few spits of rain this evening, nothing measurable. The eastern half of North America is gradually warming to the 23-25 C range, and Tropical Storm Otto continues to head slowly towards the Azores. The major ocean storm located northeast of the Azores has probably already reached its strongest circulation and will now slowly fade as it moves away from Ireland, but the frontal zone stretching away from this storm will continue to send minor disturbances into the south and southwest.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 9 October, 2010
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By the way, I overlooked the recent new moon which happened on Thursday shortly after lunar perigee -- this is one factor in the high tides noted by some forum members in the southern coastal districts -- the onshore swells from the distant ocean storm were also a factor.

TODAY ... Extensive cloud to start, with periods of rain for parts of Kerry and southwest Cork, 3-5 mms locally ... other counties could see the odd trace of rain but should stay essentially dry, and the sun may begin to break through at times mid-day and afternoon ... quite warm with highs generally 18 to 21 C, and winds ESE 20-35 mph (it may not be that strong in more sheltered inland locations).

TONIGHT ... rain tapering off to drizzle in the southwest, otherwise partly cloudy, very mild and dry with a steady ESE wind at 20 mph ... lows 12-15 C.

SUNDAY ... a mixture of cloud and sun with winds ESE 15-25 mph, quite warm, highs should range from 18 C east coast to 22 C west coast thanks to this land breeze in the west.

MONDAY to about FRIDAY ... this should be a delightful period of autumn weather for most, with somewhat cooler nights developing due to less wind and cloud, but frost only developing late in the period and rather scattered well inland. Therefore, expect your overnight lows to be falling through the range of 10 down to 5 C by mid-week and then in rural areas to 1-3 C, while urban areas will see a slide from about 12 down to 5 C. Afternoon highs will start out near 20 or 21 C (except 17 C east coast) and will only fall slightly to about 17 by the end of the week, with winds becoming much lighter but still from an easterly direction (turning a bit more northerly late in the week). Wind speeds will subside to 5-10 mph after the gusty weekend.

Some dense fog patches will also materialize in more locations as the week goes on, but these shouldn't last too long into the mornings.

Still looks rather unsettled eventually once the ridge breaks down by about next weekend.

Today (Friday 8th) here was eerily similar to Ireland with cloud, warm temperatures, and only spits of rain until this evening when a light, steady rain began. The high was close to 20 C. Expecting a bit of a deluge with strong winds on the coast already (gusts to 80 mph at our equivalent to Belmullet, the northwest tip of Vancouver Island). Where I live would be more like the equivalent of Waterford.

It was quite warm on the east coast on Friday, highs near 27 or 28 C at the major cities. Otto has chugged along to reach cat-1 hurricane status but he threatens nobody and will now cross the Sargasso Sea tossing weeds and fish all over the place, then may die out slowly near the Azores. The blocking high you have to your northeast will probably keep Otto well south and heading for northwest Africa eventually.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 10 October, 2010
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TODAY ... parts of west Munster will have a bit more drizzle this morning, and cloud will persist there until mid-afternoon ... other regions should start to see breaks in the overcast this morning and intervals of warm sunshine by afternoon ... winds will continue rather brisk from the east at about 20-25 mph ... this will create warmer conditions in the west and central counties than in eastern Ireland, with the range of highs 17 to 21 C from east to west. The south coast should top out around 19 C. (mist may linger in some southern and west-central locations to mid-day and hold temperatures down to 15-16 C until it clears).

TONIGHT ... clear with some intervals of low cloud, becoming misty or foggy in some places, and winds diminishing to ENE 10 mph ... a bit cooler than past nights, lows 7-10 C.

MONDAY ... sunny intervals, light east to northeast winds, highs again varying from near 16 C east to near 19 C west, 18 C south coast.

TUESDAY ... following a rather chilly start with lows 3-7 C and widespread fog patches, another mainly sunny day with light northeast winds, highs 14-18 C, warmer in the west.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... generally clear with plenty of daytime sunshine but some fog forming overnight and persisting in a few spots to mid-morning ... lows generally 0-4 C in rural districts, closer to 6-7 C in larger towns and sheltered coastal locations ... highs generally 13-16 C with the milder readings in the west and south. Light northeast winds throughout, dropping off to calm at night. Some dense fog patches as a result, scattered morning frosts.

This long interval of calm weather will gradually break down around next weekend as the high responsible sinks further south and allows a northwest or north wind to develop (models are rather scattered on their depictions of what follows the calm spell) -- it will definitely become more variable in terms of cloud and even showers, but temperatures may stabilize, or could fall off a bit if the more northerly European model wins out.

My picture above was taken here last October, but it may show a similar "look" to what's ahead in Ireland this week, as clear skies and crisp temperatures at night bring out some of the colour in the leaves. We have very little colour display here so far, perhaps because it has been rather warm for the past week, but today it turned to a heavy rain with a high near 17 C on Saturday. It remains quite pleasant in the eastern parts of the continent, at least south of Maine (it has turned a lot cooler in the Canadian Maritimes) ... DC was near 28 C on Saturday. While Otto slugs his way across the Sargasso Sea, a new tropical disturbance may be "called" at any time near the Cayman Islands; this one could pose a threat to Cuba and Florida in a few days.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 11 October, 2010
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TODAY ... widespread fog or low cloud this morning, slowly lifting to sunshine by later morning or mid-day, winds E-NE 10-15 mph, highs 14 to 17 C with the warmer readings likely inland to west coast, also dependent on sunshine breaking through. A few places might suffer yesterday's fairly general fate of remaining overcast and near 14 C.

TONIGHT ... clear skies at first, then widespread low cloud, fog developing, colder than last night at 2-5 C with local ground frost well inland ... winds falling off to light and variable, then calm.

TUESDAY ... dense fog may persist for several hours before lifting, then about the same as today with mostly sunny skies developing, one or two places stuck in low cloud, highs 14-17 C. Winds E-NE 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... morning fog and local frost with lows 0-3 C, mid-day and afternoon sunshine, highs 13-16 C. Winds NE 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be similar to Wednesday but may bring some local sharper frosts with lows dipping below zero in a few places; otherwise, the same forecast will apply, with winds turning very slightly to the north, and chances for local cloud increasing in Ulster as a result.

WEEKEND ... at this point, it appears that the ridge may hold to some extent, allowing a mixture of cloud and sun, but not quite as cold at night with a little more air movement returning in more of a NW backing to W flow. Eventually the ridge will break down completely and allow a stronger W-NW flow to replace it, with more cloud and eventually some showers into the north at least, but the dry spell could persist well into the next week for the south.

Meanwhile, here on Sunday (10th) we enjoyed clearing skies and it was about 15 C with cloud off to the north and east but sunshine across the region after mid-day. It remained pleasant on the east coast for the day, with some signs of a new tropical storm in the Caribbean this week, while Otto moves steadily towards the Azores (just to their north) but the future track will be southeast towards Morocco (the storm is already post-tropical in nature).

Well, let's hope we can get more of the cloud to lift today than yesterday ... today is a holiday here (Thanksgiving, it comes earlier in Canada) so it may be a good thing that there is no weather going on all week. :cool:

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 12 October, 2010
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TODAY ... some gradual clearing will follow early morning cloud and fog, but not all places will clear very quickly as there is very little wind to disperse the fog or low cloud ... with any luck, your local area will get some sunshine and warm up to about 16 C, but a few places will be stuck under low cloud and will stay quite chilly (12-13 C) with some drizzle developing there. It's a rather hit or miss process but north-central counties may be more prone to this low cloud, as well as some places near the outer south or west coasts. Keep your fingers crossed in Dublin too, because the slight northeast breeze will tend to keep some cloud streamers in place over eastern counties.

TONIGHT ... partly cloudy to clear skies at first, then low cloud and fog redeveloping, some slight frosts developing as lows drop to -1 to +3 C in rural areas, but holding at 4-6 C in more urban and east coast locations.

WEDNESDAY ... another day of morning fog, slow clearing to sunshine for most but not all then evening low cloud and mist ... rather chilly except at mid-day when highs may reach 14-16 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... intervals of cloud and sun, scattered light frosts with lows -2 to +3 C, highs around 12-15 C ... winds becoming a bit more northerly and backing in Ulster to northwest 10 mph, some drizzle developing near the Antrim coast (extending from light rain in western Scotland).

WEEKEND ... partly cloudy, still quite cold at night especially in the south, more cloud in the north than elsewhere, highs 13-15 C.

Eventually more cloud and showers will spread in as the blocking high sinks well to the south and allows some Atlantic weather systems back into the picture.

We had a cloudy day here on Monday (which was a holiday) and it started to rain at lunch time, has continued on and off without much accumulation ... it is rather chilly too, 14 C. The east coast had some summer-like heat, DC was as warm as 31 C on Monday ... Paula has now formed and threatens the countries around the western Caribbean with hurricane conditions.

Su Campu

Some very low visibilities being reported. Gurteen is reporting 0m visibility in light SNOW showers! There is of course no snow, it's a characteristic of the sensor in very low visibility, it tends to report snow where there isn't any. Temperature and dewpoint are both 6C.

homolumo

Su Campu wrote: »

Some very low visibilities being reported. Gurteen is reporting 0m visibility in light SNOW showers! There is of course no snow, it's a characteristic of the sensor in very low visibility, it tends to report snow where there isn't any. Temperature and dewpoint are both 6C.

Don't mention the S word you will cause mayhem...:)

Tactical

The current conditions being experienced have brought about enhanced RF propogation.

Depending on your view point this may or may not be welcome.

For example, UHF TV reception is all over the place with local stations suffering to distant stations.

Radio communictions are being "affected" too.

Things will normalise when the high pressure drifts off or changes significently.

M.T. Cranium

Interesting stuff about the radio reception. Meanwhile, some patchy high cloud moved over Connacht overnight, and this is why temperatures may have stayed higher there than in other parts of Ireland.

Wednesday, 13 October, 2010
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TODAY ... fog or low cloud in many areas should gradually clear again, but higher cloud over Connacht may spread to Ulster and drop slight amounts of drizzle in a few spots today. The sun will break through further south and it should become quite pleasant in the south by mid-day and afternoon. Highs will reach 13-15 C with very light east to northeast winds.

TONIGHT ... similar conditions to last night, cloudy across some parts of the north and becoming misty or locally foggy, lows 4-7 C ... clear at first in the south and central counties, dense fog developing, scattered light frost, lows about 2-4 C on average. Some near zero visibilities developing not long after sunset.

THURSDAY ... continued rather cloudy in the north, spotty light rain or drizzle in a few places, fog lifting in the south eventually to give mid-day sunshine but with cloudy intervals, light north to northeast winds, highs 13-14 C.

FRIDAY ... partly cloudy with morning fog or frost mainly in the south and central districts, lows ranging from near 2 C south to near 7 C north ... cloudy with sunny intervals, light winds by afternoon, highs 12-14 C.

WEEKEND ... continued mostly dry but with some dense fog patches overnight, some sunshine each day, a growing chance of light rain in far northern counties as winds become WNW 15-25 mph there. Winds continuing light in the south. Highs generally 12-14 C.

The charts keep suggesting a stronger cold outbreak from a northerly direction and now time this for mid-week next week ... we shall see if this actually comes to pass.

Tuesday (12th) here was a cloudy but mild day, with rain further north, highs near 15 C. The east coast remains rather warm but a coastal storm is brewing from a frontal wave moving out of Tennessee into West Virginia today.

Paula has become a small but well-organized hurricane at cat-2 intensity, moving up the east coast of the Mexican Yucatan. It should give a rather glancing blow to Cancun, then weaken slowly and move towards southern Cuba.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 14 October, 2010
________________________________

TODAY ... partly cloudy to overcast but with some lingering fog and mist mainly in north-central counties ... light winds ... highs 12-14 C north, 15-17 C near the south coast.

TONIGHT ... partly cloudy, patchy light frost and widespread fog and mist developing, some near zero visibilities ... lows generally 3-7 C but possibly lower in a few spots.

FRIDAY ... cloudy with a few sunny intervals in the south, some chance of drizzle or light rain in Ulster ... highs 13-15 C. Winds picking up slightly to NW 10 mph.

WEEKEND to about TUESDAY ... little change from the above, with slight chance of drizzle or light rain mainly in northern regions, occasionally breezy in northern counties, light winds continuing in the south. Highs generally 13 to 15 C, lows around 5 C.

LATER NEXT WEEK ... a bit colder with moderate northerly winds and showers developing, possibly wintry at times over highest terrain. Highs 11-13 C and lows 2-4 C.

Meanwhile, we enjoyed some sunshine here today and 17 C, as a ridge of high pressure has built up over the western third of North America. On the east coast, a warm spell has more or less ended and a coastal low will form later today near Ocean City, MD, moving towards Boston by Friday night or Saturday. This will bring some heavy rains to places like NYC and temperatures near 10-12 C.

Paula has peaked off the Mexican coast and is now heading for western Cuba in a weakening state, likely to drop off the tropical list fairly soon.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 15 October, 2010
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TODAY ... mostly cloudy with some lingering mist or fog well inland in Connacht and Ulster ... chilly for most, highs only 12-14 C ... a few areas will break into sunshine by afternoon, but drizzle may accompany the cloud in parts of Ulster.

TONIGHT ... continuing mostly cloudy, foggy in places, lows generally 5-8 C but could fall to 2 C giving slight frost in any clear patches that develop.

SATURDAY ... cloudy with some sunny intervals developing, perhaps a touch milder too, with highs 13-15 C. ... becoming rather breezy in the north, as winds from a westerly direction set in by mid-day, 15-25 mph.

SUNDAY ... partly cloudy with passing light showers, 1-3 mms at most, winds becoming stronger from west at 15-30 mph. Lows near 7 C and highs near 14.

MONDAY ... breezy or locally windy, showers at times, highs near 15 C.

TUESDAY ... winds becoming northwest then northerly, turning a bit colder with passing showers, sleety at times on higher ground ... highs only 9-12 C.

The mid-week will see this brief shot of colder air trying to clear the skies but only partially succeeding before milder Atlantic air moves back in from the west. Some lows near 2 C may result with scattered light ground frosts. Temperatures will warm up slowly from late next week towards the end of the month and there could be a mild spell near the end of October.

Today (Thursday 14th) was cloudy with a bit of light rain here, with highs of about 14 C. It was fairly warm across most of the continent but chilly near the east coast as low pressure has formed near Long Island, moving northeast. Paula is rapidly fading but there are tentative signs of a new tropical depression in the southern Caribbean.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 16 October, 2010
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Changes continue to be rather subtle, but the cool blocking high is about to sink out of the way of the jet stream and allow a structurally colder air mass to push south. It will take until about Monday evening for this new colder air mass to arrive, and in the meantime, the weather will be relatively mild and still on the dry side generally but with a few showers. When the colder air arrives, it will generate some chilly showers that could become wintry on higher ground. A reinforcing shot of colder air seems possible late in the week and through the following weekend. It may be about mid-week of the last week in October before somewhat milder air can return as winds become more southwesterly.

TODAY ... cloudy with some sunny intervals, a bit milder, but patchy drizzle possible in parts of Ulster and inland Connacht and north Leinster. Highs around 14 or 15 C. Winds N backing to WNW during the day, 10-20 mph.

TONIGHT ... partly cloudy to overcast, chilly, some ground frost possible where skies clear for more than an hour or two, but lows quite variable in the range of 3 to 7 C mostly (a few places higher near the north and west coasts, a few lower well inland).

SUNDAY ... cloudy with sunny intervals and a stronger westerly breeze developing, highs 14-16 C (milder south, east). Showers developing especially northern Connacht, Ulster, spreading to Leinster and west Munster late in the day. Highs near 15 C.

MONDAY ... breezy and becoming rather windy by afternoon (WNW 20-40 mph) with frequent showers and brief sunny intervals, turning a bit colder by late in the day ... lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

TUESDAY ... breezy or windy at times, NW 15-30 mph, cool with passing showers, possibly sleety at times on higher ground, lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... partly cloudy with scattered showers, some of these wintry over higher terrain in the north (and highest hills further south) with lows near 2 C and highs near 11 C. Winds WNW 20-35 mph.

OUTLOOK ... unsettled and cool with frequent showers or periods of rain, slight chance of sleety precipitation at night, temperatures remaining a few degrees below normal, winds generally moderate W-NW. Then it may warm up slowly in the final few days of the month.

Meanwhile, Friday (15th) was sunny but cool here, with highs near 14 C. It felt really chilly out after sunset this evening. Snow is falling in parts of inland B.C. and in Alberta. The nor'easter type storm has reached New Brunswick now and the east coast cities of the U.S. are left in a cool westerly flow that is a few degrees below their normal levels for this time of year.

unknownlegend

Thanks M.T.

that should be Saturday, 16 October, 2010 though. For a second there I thought I was late for work :pac:

Joe Public

Groundhog weather!

M.T. Cranium

Cheers, I suspected that might happen sooner or later with me being "yesterday's man" so to speak. Anyway, if the weather was always like this past week, there wouldn't even be weather forecasts or a weather forum, I suppose. :cool:

Su Campu

Just a note that the TAFs for the airports around the country are forecasting 300m visibilities developing in fog throughout the night, mostly from around 2am onwards.

Currently 5000m visibility at Mullingar, temp/dewpoint 4/2°C, so more scope for the visibility to deteriorate further.

Su Campu

2300h

Mullingar now 1200m in fog, temp/dewpoint 2/1°C

Oak Park 8000m, 4/4°C
Ballyhaise 9000m, 3/2°C

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 17 October, 2010
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Watch out for "black ice" on some roads in central and southeast Ireland this morning as temperatures have fallen a little below zero in a few rural low-lying spots. Any fog around these areas may be accompanied by these very slippery road conditions.

TODAY ... once any fog disperses, the day will be partly cloudy with some stronger westerly winds setting in around the northern counties by afternoon, but remaining rather calm elsewhere ... one or two brief showers are possible in Donegal and north coast Ulster. Highs will reach 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... partly cloudy to overcast, a bit milder except in the far south where any clear skies could lead to another frost or local fog ... breezy elsewhere too ... lows 5-8 C north, to 2 C south away from coast and large towns.

MONDAY ... partly cloudy to overcast, brief showers, winds WSW 20-35 mph, highs 14-15 C.

TUESDAY ... frequent showers, variable cloud, cooler with a gusty WNW wind at 25-40 mph. Highs 10-12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... showers, partly to mostly cloudy, cool, winds NW 15-30 mph and lows 2-5 C, highs 11-13 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... mostly cloudy, some light rain at times in Connacht, turning slightly milder again in the south as winds back to south or southwest, but remaining about the same (11-12 C) in the far north.

The outlook period looks slightly milder again with a slow warming trend likely towards the end of the month.

Saturday (16th) was a sunny but crisp, cool day here and it feels very close to freezing outside this evening. The high was about 13 C earlier. The weather across the continent was rather bland and settled with temperatures fairly close to seasonal normals in most places. We continue to see slow development of a possible 17th named storm (which would be Richard) near the coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 18 October, 2010
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TODAY ... mostly cloudy with brief sunny intervals, passing light showers more frequent in north and west, but only 1-3 mms likely, and a rather chilly westerly wind at 15-30 mph ... highs near 12 C north to 15 C south.

TONIGHT ... showers or intervals of light rain, steady west wind at about 20 or 25 mph, lows 6-8 C.

TUESDAY ... turning colder with winds veering to NW at 20-40 mph, passing showers that will become sleety or wintry on northern hills, and later on high ground further south ... average rainfalls of 2-5 mms (giving brief snow cover on highest peaks) ... hail showers at times lower elevations ... highs 9-12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... early morning frost in some areas with lows -1 to +3 C then more sunshine than Tuesday but still with a few passing showers, remaining quite chilly with winds abating somewhat to NNW 15-25 mph ... highs reaching about 12 C.

THURSDAY ... light rain at times across northern counties, milder again in the south as winds steadily back to SW then S 10-15 mph, foggy at times by late afternoon and evening, highs near 12 C north to near 15 C south.

FRIDAY ... partly cloudy, mild in south, overcast with light rain in the north, highs in the same range (12-15 C).

OUTLOOK ... variable cloud, showers, near normal temperatures but a slight warming trend.

Meanwhile, the weather here on Sunday (17th) was sunny and quite cool, about 12 C for the high. High cloud was moving in this evening but not enough to obscure the Moon or the brighter stars and planets. It was about 4 degrees at 9:30 pm and feeling frosty. Despite that, no snow in evidence to the peak level of the nearby lower mountains (to 1400m). Probably some snow in gullies near that elevation but staying quite "open" so far. It was quite a warm, sunny day in eastern parts of the U.S. (highs 20-23 C).

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 19 October, 2010
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TODAY ... variable cloud with some sunny intervals, quite chilly and with some passing showers that could become squally with hail lower elevations and wintry with sleet or snow on high ground ... winds NW 20-40 mph (some higher gusts in Connacht) ... highs only 9 to 12 C (possibly 14 C south coast).

TONIGHT ... showers continuing but tending to die out after midnight, winds abating near 0300h, scattered frost developing, as lows fall to -2 to +3 C range in rural districts, although staying up around 6-7 C near west and north coasts. Astronomy note: almost full moon getting closer to Jupiter in the sky through the night.

WEDNESDAY ... sunny with cloudy intervals, still a few weak showers in parts of the north, chilly but struggling up to 12-14 C by mid-afternoon in a light northwest wind backing to southwest later. The following night, under a nearly full moon, quite chilly but moderating after midnight due to increased cloud cover, so that lows may be around midnight but close to frost levels.

THURSDAY ... cloudy with some brighter intervals, light rain developing in parts of southwest and Connacht, highs 12-15 C milder in southeast. Moon at full phase overnight, may not be visible in many areas though.

FRIDAY ... further outbreaks of light rain mostly northern half of the country, amounts 2-4 mms, but heavier rain by the overnight hours as winds pick up from SSW at 15-30 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C. Higher than normal spring tides possible south and west coast.

SATURDAY ... windy at times with heavy rain in the morning, clearing later to partly cloudy with isolated showers, winds veering southerly to westerly and peak gusts near 45 mph, highs near 13 C.

SUNDAY ... calmer conditions returning but variable cloud and a few showers, highs near 12 C.

NEXT WEEK ... after possible frost early in the week, it should warm up to above normal temperatures later in the last few days of October.

Meanwhile, Monday (18th) was a cloudy but dry day here with a faint breeze and mild enough at 15 C. Not too far from average temperatures across the North American continent at this point, as you may have heard a cat-5 "super" typhoon (Megi, but known in the Philippines as Juan) has crossed the northern Philippines and is heading for a second landfall in China. The Caribbean disturbance continues to promise possible tropical storm "Richard" in a day or two.

With the prospect of some active showers, and yours truly perhaps not awake later on, would direct your attention to the active weather threads including today's reports at top of the page. Some isolated heavy falls of hail might develop given the "cold uppers" at this hour. (freezing levels low, in other words)

Plug

Any nights coming up that will be clear, no cloud at all? For telescope use.

EDIT: Around kilkenny

eskimocat

Maybe I have missed it somewhere, but I have been looking and there is not much (none????) discussion of the fact that there is a forecast for sleet, hail or snow for high ground in the north west for TONIGHT!!!. Now maybe thats because you all believe its not going to happen (apart from M.T who kindly mentions possibility in his forecast) but I am shocked and appalled (see :eek: ) at the lack of enthusiasm at the possibility of the lovely white stuff falling somewhere!

Really I blame myself, I should started building a ramp ages ago but couldn't find me tool kit!

Between Dublin and Dromahair this evening the coldest spot at 4c was outside Carrick on Shannon. Here at present its 6.7c.

thinking that I might have posted this in wrong thread too.... lost and without tool kit... sad day...

Harps

Problem is nobody lives in the Donegal mountains so its not really interesting for anyone!

Theres snow on top of the mountains for most of the winter every year but still promising to hear it this early.

Freezing cold here but obviously not high enough for snow, I'm about 250ft above but I'd say there'll be nothing below 1500ft or so

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 20 October, 2010
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(answer to question earlier) Clear skies around Kilkenny -- not too likely again until middle to end of next week now, although you might get the odd brief clear spell tonight and possibly Sunday night.

Forecasts --

TODAY ... sunny with increasing cloud especially for Connacht where the cloud may arrive mid-morning, although still a few weak showers in parts of Ulster, chilly at first with some local black ice on roads, but struggling up to 11-14 C by mid-afternoon in a light northwest wind backing to southwest later.

TONIGHT -- Under a nearly full moon, quite chilly but moderating after midnight due to increased cloud cover, so that lows may be around midnight but close to frost levels. I expect you'll see a lunar halo during the evening then skies will cloud over so only bright objects like Jupiter will be visible. Some fog patches may develop after midnight. Lowest temperatures -1 to +3 then moderating to about +4 to +6 C.

THURSDAY ... cloudy with some brighter intervals, light rain developing in parts of southwest and Connacht, highs 12-15 C milder in southeast. Moon at full phase overnight, may not be visible in many areas though.

FRIDAY ... further outbreaks of light rain mostly northern half of the country, amounts 2-4 mms, but heavier rain by the overnight hours as winds pick up from SSW at 15-30 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C. Higher than normal spring tides possible south and west coast. Rainfalls 10-20 mms by midnight.

SATURDAY ... windy at times with heavy rain in the morning (a further 10-20 mms), clearing later to partly cloudy with isolated showers, winds veering southerly to westerly and peak gusts near 45 mph, highs near 13 C after a fairly mild night near with lows 8-10 C.

SUNDAY ... partly cloudy to overcast, showers or longer periods of light rain in moderate NW winds, cooler with highs near 10 C.

MONDAY ... cloudy with showers, highs near 12 C.

NEXT WEEK should remain rather cloudy and a bit milder than average, but it will turn rather chilly late in the week under high pressure, especially overnight lows near frost levels, before milder air from the south arrives on the final weekend of the month. If those charts verify, temperatures could hit 16 C near the end of the month.

Meanwhile, today (Tues 19th) here was a sunny day that warmed up to almost 20 C. Wednesday looks about the same here too. Then we get into some rain and wind for several days. The east coast has cooled slightly from an outbreak of modified arctic air but it was about 13-15 C in the big cities, although only 7-10 C across the Great Lakes with mixed sleety showers in places. The disturbance that would be Richard continues to hover just below "naming" intensity near the Cayman Islands.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 21 October, 2010
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TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, but largely dry ... some drizzle may continue in the southeast from earlier rain, but this has started to break up now, and then some parts of Ulster could see drizzle or light rain by mid-day. A few places may get a slight shower but average amounts will be trace to 2 mms, as high temperatures push slowly up to about 13 C.

TONIGHT will bring low cloud, fog or mist in most places, then some light rain, with lows only falling to about 7 or 8 C.

FRIDAY will become breezy then locally windy with periods of heavy rain developing, 10-15 mms possible, as the rain moves across the country starting mid-day west and ending up across the east coast by evening. Highs will reach about 13-14 C. Friday night will continue showery with a further 5 to 10 mms of rain possible, winds SSW 20-40 mph, and lows only 8-10 C. Full moon overnight and these winds may combine to bring about some rather high water levels in the southwest coastal regions.

SATURDAY will bring intervals of cloud and sun with a few residual showers, as winds veer to westerly 20-40 mph (some gusts to 50 mph west coast).

SUNDAY will continue breezy with cooler temperatures and more passing showers turning rather heavy at times in Connacht. Winds will become NW 20 to 30 mph, and highs around 9 or 10 C.

MONDAY will be breezy and quite chilly with passing showers, some of them containing hail, with lows near 3 C and highs near 9 C. Monday night should see some clearing and possible frost, then a sunny start to TUESDAY with increasing cloud.

From that point on, the week should begin to turn milder with moderate south to southwest winds and occasional showery rainfalls. Nothiing too extreme is expected, gusts to 30-40 mph at times, and highs generally 13-14 C. By the final weekend of October it may even be milder.

Today (Wed 20th) here was a sunny day with highs near 18 C. There was a fair amount of cirrostratus type cloud by evening. Nothing too active on the map across Canada or the U.S. today, but Tropical Depression 19 has formed and may become T.S. Richard by later today. It could head off in almost any direction from where it is stalled out now west of Jamaica.



SATURDAY will

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 22 October, 2010
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Moon reaches full phase at 0238 summer time or 0138 GMT (Sat 23). Given tonight's fairly strong SW to W wind, high tides may run about 0.5m above their usual full moon heights, at least on the south and west coasts.

TODAY ... cloudy with a few brighter intervals across the south and central counties, light rain spreading into the north, winds picking up gradually to reach SW 20-30 mph late this afternoon and this evening. An area of heavy showers will hit the west coast about mid-afternoon and move rather quickly across central Ireland to reach the east coast by early evening. This will bring about 10-12 mms of rain on average. But before that arrives, there could be some much lighter showers out ahead of this front.

TONIGHT ... clearing for a while after the rain moves through, but a few more showers developing, as winds veer to SW 20-35 mph then WNW 25-40 mph. Turning colder with lows reaching 4 C in some western counties, likely staying closer to 7 C east and south.

SATURDAY ... intervals of cloud and sun with scattered showers, some of these becoming heavy with hail and possibly thunder. Winds WNW 20-40 mph and highs near 10 C.

SUNDAY ... variable amounts of cloud, rather cool with a northerly wind at about 15 mph, any showers likely brief and confined to north, lows near 3 C and highs near 10 C.

MONDAY ... frost likely to start, sunny with increasing cloud especially in the western counties where rain may follow by evening, lows near -2 C in rural districts to +3 C in large towns and near some coasts, highs near 11 C and probably staying at that level overnight as rain picks up with a southerly wind setting in.

TUESDAY ... breezy and milder with showers, winds SSW 20-35 mph for a while, highs near 13 C.

WED-THURS continuing mild with some further rain, moderate S to SW winds, possibly as high as 35 mph in gusts by late Thursday. Highs near 13 C.

FRI-SAT likely to be quite mild too, with intervals of rain developing, and moderate SW winds, highs 14-15 C. By Sunday 31st it may be a little cooler again with more of a westerly wind, but still above 12 C daytime.

Today's weather in my part of the world was mostly cloudy although rain held off until evening, with a mild south wind and highs near 15 C (this on Thursday of course) ... tropical storm Richard has formed (finally) and seems to be considering his options, possibly looping around and heading back to the northwest after drifting southeast all day. The big story however might be Typhoon Megi which recently hit the northern Philippines (Luzon) hard and now threatens to move inland in China just to the northwest of Taiwan around the city of Xiamen (population 2.5 million) which was formerly called Amoy. There's a thread on this storm with some links to satellites and radar. With the time difference in the far east, this storm is expected to hit Saturday their time, but Friday night in GMT. At last report it had winds of about 100 mph.

With this front moving in rapidly, take note, driving conditions may deteriorate rapidly as well, especially for people travelling west. Watch the other threads for more information (in case I'm not able to update here) but as I said above, expect this on the west coast around 2-4 pm and around Dublin by 7-9 pm.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 23 October, 2010
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TODAY ... frequent showers this morning, blustery west winds veering to northwest by mid-day, 20-35 mph ... showers becoming more isolated but also somewhat heavier where they hit, with hail and thunder possible ... some sunny breaks in west and north by late afternoon as winds veer more northerly there ... highs 10-11 C, with 3-5 mms rain on average but 5-10 mms in southeast.

TONIGHT ... cloudy with clear breaks more frequent after midnight, winds diminishing to N 15 mph, chilly, just a few left-over showers mainly in Ulster ... lows 2 to 5 C.

SUNDAY ... variable amounts of cloud, rather cool with a northerly wind at about 15 mph, longer intervals of sunshine in west with any showers likely brief and confined to north or east, highs near 10 C.

MONDAY ... a sharp frost likely to start, some patchy fog and icy roads in rural areas, then sunny with increasing cloud especially in the western counties where rain may follow by evening, lows near -2 C in rural districts to +3 C in large towns and near some coasts, highs near 11 C and probably staying at that level overnight as rain picks up with a southerly wind setting in.

TUESDAY ... breezy and milder with showers or periods of rain, winds SSW 20-35 mph for a while, highs near 13 C. Rainfalls of about 10-15 mms.

WED-THURS continuing mild with some further rain, moderate S to SW winds, possibly as high as 35 mph in gusts by late Thursday. Highs near 13 C.

FRI-SAT likely to be quite mild too, with intervals of rain developing, and moderate SW winds, highs 14-15 C. By Sunday 31st it may be a little cooler again with more of a westerly wind, but still above 12 C daytime.

Meanwhile, my local weather (Friday 22nd) was overcast and mild with light rain at times here, and the high was 15 C. The east coast of the U.S. became a bit cooler today with highs of about 12-14 C there. Tropical Storm Richard seems to have picked a direction (west) and is hovering off the northeast tip of Honduras early today (Saturday). Typhoon Megi is moving inland at this hour (which is about 3 p.m. local time) just to the west of Xiamen, China where it is quite windy now but probably won't quite reach hurricane force as the centre of the storm has weakened to borderline cat-1. Rainfalls in that region could be 100-300 mms.

Watch for updates here or on other threads, if any locally heavy showers develop around mid-day.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE ... expect lows tonight to fall a bit lower than previous forecast to about -1 to +3 C with scattered frost and a few icy sections possible on roads especially in central and inland eastern counties.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 24 October, 2010
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TODAY ... sunny intervals after any morning fog or low cloud dissipate ... a few patches of high cloud at times ... chilly but moderating to highs near 10 or 11 C in light northerly winds.

TONIGHT ... clear and frosty, rural lows dropping to -3 C, urban areas about
+2 C ... patchy ground fog and widespread icy roads ... calm winds.

MONDAY ... sunny at first, cloud quickly spreading into west and dimming the sun in the east by afternoon ... light rain on outer west coast by mid-afternoon as winds there pick up to SE 15-25 mph ... not very windy elsewhere. Highs 9-11 C during day, hovering around 11 C by evening.

TUESDAY ... breezy, very mild ... highs 13-14 C ... winds SW 20-35 mph, intervals of rain but trending to partly cloudy in southwest later. Rainfalls about 10 mms.

WEDNESDAY ... partly cloudy, showers, mild, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 or 13 C.

THURSDAY ... partly cloudy, breezy (WSW 20-30 mph), not quite as mild, showers developing, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... breezy with a period of rain, heavy at times, affecting most regions but heavier in the south. Highs near 12 C.

SUNDAY (31st) ... partly cloudy and breezy, clearing later, highs near 10 C.

Meanwhile, my local weather (Sat 23rd) was cloudy with afternoon and evening rain, strong winds off to the west not affecting us here yet ... high was about 14 C. It is warming up rapidly in eastern parts of North America ahead of a slowly deepening low in Nebraska that will eventually bring heavy wet snow to Winnipeg and northern Ontario (mid-week). Richard looks like becoming a hurricane soon as he (it?) moves west along the north coast of Honduras towards a landfall in Belize late Sunday or early Monday (could briefly hit cat-2).

rainbow kirby

What's the odds of icy roads in Dublin - marathon's at 9am tomorrow :eek:

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Sunday, 7:30 p.m.
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For that question above, would say that there could be a few slippery spots in the shade, but won't that be mostly the problem for the front runners? By the time a few dozen people have run through, the conditions for the pack would probably improve a bit. Depends on how far from the city centre the course runs, I would expect lowest temperatures to vary from about +2 C near the centre of Dublin (and seafront) to about -2 C at the airport and some other outlying parts of the city. It certainly looks capable of dropping to about -4 C (in general across central Ireland) at the coldest part of the night around 06-08h.

Meanwhile, update on forecast for Thursday night into Friday ... models are now trending to a stormy interval with S to SW winds of 40-60 mph with a rapidly deepening low moving past Connacht during the night. This wind likely to peak around sunrise Friday then slowly fall off to SW 20-40 mph later Friday (but this could be further updated).

Richard became a hurricane and will be making landfall as a cat-1 or weak cat-2 storm near Belize City at about 2200h (2100 GMT) which is around
4 p.m. local time. Raining and 12 C here.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 25 October, 2010
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TODAY ... the severe morning chill may be slow to moderate especially in valleys, and so watch out for lingering frost, icy sections of roads and pavements, and patches of dense fog near ponds and streams. There should be a good amount of morning sun for many places, but cloud will spread into the west rather quickly. By about 2-3 p.m., the worst of the chill should have dissipated with afternoon highs of 8 to 11 C. These temperatures could fall off slightly in east Leinster and Ulster this evening but with a rising south wind and rain in the west, it will stay mild there.

TONIGHT ... intervals of rain spreading across the country but becoming heavy only in the west, where 8-15 mms could fall (much less further east). Fog will develop and winds of 20-30 mph from the south will set in ... lows will be generally near 8 C east and 10 C west.

TUESDAY ... further heavy showers giving 10-20 mms, especially west and north, winds rising to SW 30-45 mph, very mild, highs near 13 C. By Tuesday night, quite windy with squally showers and chance of thunder. Lows around 6 C as it turns somewhat cooler after midnight in a strong westerly wind.

WEDNESDAY ... partly to mostly cloudy, showers mainly north and northwest, relatively mild, with highs near 12 C. Rainfalls generally 2-5 mms.

THURSDAY ... some bright or even sunny intervals at first, morning lows of about 3-6 C, then cloudy, becoming rather windy and mild, with periods of rain, heavy at times in the west, generally 10-20 mms. Highs will be 12-14 C.

By Thursday night into FRIDAY, windy with squally showers at times, winds from the SSW veering more to WSW at 30-50 mph but closer to 40-65 west coast. Temperatures steady near 10 C. Clearing slowly by late Friday.

WEEKEND -- Saturday partly cloudy, a few showers, breezy, highs near 10 C. Sunday (31st), becoming windy and rather chilly with strong WNW winds in Connacht and moderate westerly elsewhere, rain setting in on the strong winds but becoming showery further east, south. Highs near 9 C.

A slight frost may follow in early November, but then a milder spell will follow (it will be similar to this week in timing, but perhaps less intense). This will be the remnants of a major storm now developing in the central U.S., moving across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday and Wednesday, then off through Quebec into the Labrador Sea by Friday. Without a lot of further developments, the remnants of this low will be passing north of Ireland by about 3-4 November. The weather today in Vancouver was wet at times, with a gusty SE wind. It was about 12 C. Meanwhile, Richard has moved inland in Belize as a cat-1 hurricane and will now die slowly over eastern Mexico.