Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 02-05-2011 5:58am

Monday, 2 May, 2011
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Summer outlook -- In general, expect a reasonably warm and dry to near normal summer (this would apply to the months June to September, and also to "astronomical summer" 21 June to 21 Sept). There will be intervals of very warm, dry weather at times, separated by periods that are close to normal in temperature with more frequent rainfall. It is not expected to become oppressively warm or hot for long periods, but there could be a few hot days. The trend from June to August is likely to be a drying trend. Now, as the current conditions are quite dry in the north especially, what this means is that May will bring somewhat more normal rainfalls and so will June, so this current drought should ease although not likely totally erased. Then a somewhat drier trend will return, and this applies to north and south. This dry trend is likely to continue into September.

For those who would like numbers more than words, this prediction would expect June to be about 0.5 to 1.0 C deg above average with near normal rainfall; July about zero to 0.5 C deg above average with 80-100% of normal rainfall, and August about 0.7 to 1.4 C deg above average with 60-80% of normal rainfall. This August trend should be continued in September.

This appears likely to be another rather active tropical storm season in the North Atlantic so there is likely a higher than random chance of a brush with one remnant storm system most likely in September or October.

While these comments are meant to be quite general, local storms can always develop within this pattern and be quite notable for small areas. The pattern I foresee for this summer is not particularly "potent" for severe storm development but a long-range forecast really cannot hope to predict that sort of detail months in advance.

Although I don't expect a major heat wave like that experienced in August 2003 or July 2006, this summer does show a little higher than average on a heat wave index from analogues, so I would not want to rule out that chance, but would rate it as about one in five (random might be more like one in ten).

I will probably post this summer outlook in a separate thread later today, so would ask if people might address comments or questions to that thread rather than to this daily forecast thread. Thanks. I may try to give some details in that thread not mentioned in this outlook forecast, from my research.

Today's forecasts

TODAY ... Cloudy with showers, and some intervals of heavier thundery rain especially around Cork and south Kerry. Potential for 15-30 mms of rain in some parts of the south, and 5-10 mms of rain likely across central counties but trace to 3 mms north. Rain will spread northward during the day, but may not arrive in Ulster or northern parts of Connacht or Leinster, at least until evening if at all. Winds ESE 20-40 mph and chilly in the rain with highs only 12-15 C. Highs may reach 15-17 C in some inland parts of the north where a few sunny breaks are possible despite extensive cloud.

TONIGHT ... Further rain in the south and west mostly, lows near 7 C, winds ESE 15-30 mph, some rainfalls of 3-7 mms.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, cool and windy (SE 15-30 mph) with lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C. Rainfall potential 5-15 mms. Rain may not reach all parts of the north especially east Ulster.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... Milder again and humid, SE to S winds at 15-30 mph, foggy at times, showery but also some dry intervals and limited amounts of sunshine. Lows generally 6-8 C and highs 15-17 C. Expect a rather general rainfall of 10-20 mms mid-week (Wed night into Thursday morning most likely).

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Widespread storms although not a huge severe outbreak this time, from east Texas to the Tennessee valley. South of that front, hot and humid (highs near 30 C). North of the front and west into much of Texas, far cooler than yesterday and also below normal, highs only about 10-13 C in strong northerly winds. This cool air had its source over fresh snow dropped by low pressure now moving away from Lake Superior towards Hudson Bay. Dry and somewhat warmer on the west coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny and pleasantly warm, highs near 16 C on Sunday. Clouding over for scattered showers on Monday (which is not a holiday here but is election day across Canada).

M.T. Cranium · 03-05-2011 6:54am

Tuesday, 3 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy in most parts of Ireland, but with partly cloudy skies in the north and east at times. Light rain here and there in western counties and a few further showers possible in the south, amounts today rather light (1-3 mms generally), winds SE 15-30 mph. Highs 13-16 C with the warmer readings in Ulster, inland Leinster and much of Connacht.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some clear intervals, lows 5-9 C, although longer clear intervals in Ulster could allow much lower temperatures in a few spots, to about 2-3 C. Some light showers may continue near the west coast with a steady drizzle developing later. Winds SE 15-30 mph near coasts and on higher terrain, otherwise 5-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy, mild and humid, with rain moving into the west, making slow eastward progress and giving 5-15 mms of rain in parts of Connacht. It may take some time for this rain to overspread all areas currently experiencing fire problems but this should be complete by Wednesday night. Amounts may be sufficient to give firefighters a significant boost, but more will be coming along later. Highs for the day 14-17 C, winds SSE 20-30 mph with some higher gusts.

THURSDAY ... Periods of rain tapering to showers, some sunny intervals by afternoon, winds southerly 15-30 mph, mild and humid. Lows near 11 C and highs near 16 C. Average rainfalls 10-20 mms.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, mild and in some places foggy, southerly winds 15-30 mph. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C. Average rainfalls 3-7 mms.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Breezy, mild and humid, periods of rain (20-40 mms potential in some places) and gusty SSE winds. Highs near 15 C but could rise higher in some inland counties if the sun breaks through persistent low cloud.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Drying out again gradually with rather warm temperatures returning, highs could be into the low 20s at times (the once advertised colder interval has now vanished from the models altogether).

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Heavy showers and thunderstorms moving gradually east through the southeast states overnight and on Tuesday, some severe storms likely in areas ravaged by tornadoes last week. These won't be as severe but not very welcome in the ongoing recovery efforts. The northeast will be wet and mild, but central regions will be cool and dry. The west has turned wet and cool again.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy with periods of rain, highs near 11 C on Monday.

I have now opened up a thread to discuss the summer outlook and welcome alternate views, so I hope you will post your thoughts on the summer there.

M.T. Cranium · 04-05-2011 6:59am

Wednesday, 4 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy with periods of rain developing from west to east, but remaining dry in Ulster and northeast Leinster until mid-afternoon. Rainfalls of 5-15 mms heavier in Connacht, winds SSE 15-30 mph, rather cool and humid with highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, showers or drizzle, fog patches forming, further outbreaks of moderate or even heavy rain in west later, winds SSE 20-35 mph in exposed locations, lows 9-12 C. Rainfalls 5-15 mms, heavier in west after midnight.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, rather warm and humid as winds veer SSW 15-30 mph, heavy showers and chance of thundershowers, rainfalls 10-20 mms with heaviest likely around east Galway, Mayo, into west Ulster. Highs 15 to 17 C.

FRIDAY ... Not much change with cloud, mist or fog, outbreaks of rain or showers, brief sunny breaks, and winds staying southerly 15-30 mph, rather warm and humid with lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy, breezy to windy (SE 20-40 mph) and wet in many places with persistent rain, 15-30 mms possible. Some local flooding quite likely in southern inland counties (soil moisture has already been replenished in some of the southern districts and so this excess rain will flood more readily here than over presently dry areas). Lows near 8 C and highs near 15.

SUNDAY ... Little change, cloudy, windy (SE 20-40 mph), showery. Lows near 8 C and highs about 16 C. Potential for 10-20 mms further rain.

OUTLOOK ... The moist and unstable southeast flow should gradually veer more southerly again and conditions will slowly improve with rather warm temperatures at first, followed by a cooling trend.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Showers are moving off the east coast overnight and clearing will follow with much cooler temperatures. Cool, dry air covers many parts of the central U.S. with somewhat warmer air returning today in southerly winds, clouds and showers, but the next major severe outbreak seems several days away. Rather cool and variable across the west.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Today (Tues 3rd) was partly cloudy to sunny with gusty W-NW winds and rather chilly in the breeze, 10 C at mid-afternoon. Nice out of the wind.

M.T. Cranium · 05-05-2011 7:49am

Thursday, 5 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with outbreaks of heavy showery rain, some thunder possible too, heaviest across western counties with 10-20 mms generally there, and 5-15 mms further east ... winds S 15-30 mph ... highs 14-17 C.

TONIGHT ... More showers likely with fog developing, winds S 15-30 mph and lows around 10-12 C with potential for 5-15 mms further rainfall.

FRIDAY ... Some longer dry intervals developing in the west, morning showers may be heavy at times in the east but the partly cloudy regime spreading east later, winds S 15-30 mph with some higher gusts and highs 16-18 C. Rainfalls generally 5-10 mms. Heavy rain may develop by evening in the southwest.

SATURDAY ... Periods of rain, possibly heavy at times, southerly winds at about 20-35 mph, lows near 12 C and highs near 15 C. Rainfalls of 15-30 mms possible. Some local flooding likely in southern counties inland.

SUNDAY ... Further rain, strong winds developing from the SE veering more to S'ly late in the day, potential for 20 mms or more, lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C. Winds may gust to 50 mph later in the southwest.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, showery, gusty winds at first, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Gradual improvement, a little cooler at night, but with a warm spell developing later in the week on southeast winds. Highs could be back into the low 20s within a week of this weekend.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Dry and relatively cool in most of the eastern U.S., showery in a few places near the Great Lakes. Warming up in a dry south to southwest flow of desert origins in Texas and the southern plains.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wed 4th was a pleasant day, with considerable high cloud but sunshine casting weak shadows most of the time, and rather warm (high was about 17 C).

Let's hope this rain totally suppresses the fires before the next warming trend sets in.

M.T. Cranium · 06-05-2011 5:40am

Friday, 6 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny in most areas as showers move away from the east coast this morning, but some afternoon showers or intervals of light rain may develop across the west. Winds S 15-30 mph ... rather warm and humid ... highs 16-19 C (may stay 13-15 C south coast in sea breezes).

TONIGHT ... Outbreaks of thundery rain possible, 5-15 mms including the afternoon showers, mild and humid with southerly winds 15-30 mph, lows around 11-12 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud but mostly overcast, outbreaks of rain, although heavier at times south and east, winds backing S to SE and freshening to 20-40 mph. Highs 14-17 C. Rainfalls 10-20 mms.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy, breezy to windy, periods of rain or thundershowers, lows near 12 C and highs near 15 C. Rainfalls of 15-30 mms possible, some flooding likely in poorly drained areas of south, central counties. Winds SE 20-40 mph increasing to SSW 30-55 mph (higher gusts possible west coast to 65 mph).

MONDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showery, windy at first, SW 30-50 mph, lows near 12 C and highs near 15 C. Rainfalls of 5-10 mms. Some clearing possible later in the day.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C in moderate westerly winds.

OUTLOOK ... There is now some doubt that warmer weather will develop right away and there may be a period of cool, cloudy and showery conditions as the wind stays in a west to northwest flow.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Showers moving through the western Great Lakes today but not much intensity to this front, slightly warmer ahead of the front and to the south of a trough in Oklahoma and north Texas. Eventually turning hot and dry in these areas. Gusty winds and showers over the Rockies, turning much colder in Montana and Alberta, eastern British Columbia as strong low pressure develops over Wyoming. Some snow at higher elevations in these regions.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday (5th) was cloudy and a bit cooler than Wednesday with spits of light rain and highs around 13-14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 07-05-2011 6:20am

Saturday, 7 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, scattered outbreaks of light rain becoming heavier at times by afternoon, some thunder associated, winds SE 15-30 mph, rather warm and humid away from south coast, highs 15-18 C. Rainfalls generally about 5-10 mms.

TONIGHT ... Outbreaks of rain and fog with steady southeast winds 15-30 mph, 5-10 mms of rain, lows 10-12 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing southerly winds and showers or periods of rain, some heavy, but also some brighter intervals, winds S 20-40 mph increasing to 30-55 mph by late day ... highs 13-16 C. Rainfalls 10-20 mms.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... Windy with showers, lows near 12 C, winds veering slightly to SSW 35-55 mph (highest gusts west coast shifting to Connacht by morning). Further rainfalls 5-10 mms.

MONDAY ... Breezy, humid with rain or showers, winds SW 20-40 mph, easing later, highs near 15 C, rainfalls 5-15 mms.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, breezy, lows near 8 C and highs about 14 C, winds SW 15-30 mph. About 5 mms of rain generally.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat unsettled but longer dry intervals as winds continue from a westerly direction, temperatures staying in the mid-teens by day and 5-8 C overnight. Indications of warmer weather now delayed to the following week.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Friday brought some light showers to parts of the eastern states but in general it was dry and rather cool across the north-central U.S., hot and dry in parts of Texas and New Mexico, and this warmth is spreading into Colorado and Kansas ahead of developing strong low pressure expected to stall over Wyoming this weekend. Snow will develop over higher parts of the northwest states and inland B.C. and Alberta although valley temperatures are mild enough for rain showers.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday 6th was a cloudy, rather cool day with rain arriving late afternoon and continuing at present. Highs near 13 C.

M.T. Cranium · 08-05-2011 6:35am

Sunday, 8 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Heavy rain across Ulster parts of north Leinster will become intermittent and will be followed by some scattered thundery showers later this morning ... some brighter intervals will follow there as a dry "slot" rotates north across Ireland bringing with it some sunny breaks ... that dry interval will be followed by cloud and outbreaks of heavy rain and some thunder, spreading into the southwest this morning, and into most of the western, central and southeast counties by afternoon. Winds will be moderate SE'ly at 20-35 mph until late today when they may veer more S or SSW and strengthen to 30-50 mph. Rainfalls with the leading front in the north have already produced 20-30 mms in places and may give 10-15 mms further. The next wave has potential for 5-15 mms generally and 15-25 mms in some parts of Kerry, Cork, Limerick and Clare. Spot flooding is possible especially in Kerry and Cork. Highs today will be 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with intervals of rain, some thunder, and gusty southerly winds reaching 35-55 mph west, 25-40 mph eastern counties. Further rainfalls of 10-15 mms likely. Lows near 10 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with outbreaks of rain, some heavy at times, and a few thundershowers. Becoming more showery later with brighter intervals spreading into the southwest. Winds SW 20-40 mph. Highs 13-15 C west and 14-16 C east.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, cool, breezy (WSW 20-30 mph), lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, just a few isolated showers in Connacht, breezy (W 20-30 mph), lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Relatively dry although rather cloudy at times later this week, continued breezy from the west ... the following weekend may become more showery again ... temperatures generally near normal with highs 13-15 C. Little or no chance of frost but lows sometimes falling to 3-5 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Systems are slowing down to a crawl, and the dominant feature is strong low pressure in Wyoming. To the west and north of that, showery at low elevations, with mountain snow, and chilly. Across the southwest, south central and central plains regions, warm to hot and dry, highs today likely to be 35-40 C in much of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, and 30-35 C in Colorado and Nebraska. Further east, outbreaks of thundery rain moving towards Washington DC in a rather weak frontal wave, cool with northeast winds further north. The hot, dry air mass is also spreading into the southeast states on westerly winds. While it's rather humid there, humidity levels are not excessive and the weather is settled.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, some rain at times, cool ... highs on Saturday about 13 C.

M.T. Cranium · 08-05-2011 11:37pm

UPDATE _ Sunday, 11:30 p.m.
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Radar and public reports suggest that rainfalls of 20-40 mms could be recorded overnight in parts of Cork and Limerick counties from a frontal system slowly moving in a NNE'ly direction. Watch for flooding of low-lying areas and some lightning and hail, gusts to 50 mph, with this. Further north (Clare, Galway, Mayo) in the same band, potential for 15-30 mms and similar risks. This feature will probably weaken slowly overnight as it moves north and northeast ... Waterford, Tipps, Laois, Offaly, Westmeath, Longford, parts of west Ulster could see the later phases of this heavy rainfall and pick up 10-20 mms.

M.T. Cranium · 09-05-2011 6:31am

Monday, 9 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, although some brief sunny intervals this morning in the east ... heavy showers and a few thundershowers with hail in many central counties from north to south, 15-30 mms rain possible there ... eventually these will move further east and arrive in the Dublin region and the southeast by afternoon. Further showers possible in the west but also some breaks in the overcast. Winds becoming SSW 20-35 mph, a few higher gusts developing mid-day to 45 mph south coast. ... Highs 13-16 C, mildest east.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, showers continuing, winds SW 15-25 mph, and lows around 7 C. Rainfall amounts 3-5 mms.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals becoming more frequent in the west by afternoon, a few more showers likely, briefly heavy in Mayo and Donegal by afternoon. Rainfalls of about 3-5 mms, highs 13-15 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers more likely in northwest, breezy (westerly 15-25 mph), lows 4-6 C and highs 13-15 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY ... Continuing partly cloudy and mostly dry but some isolated showers, temperatures near 5 C overnight and near 14 C daytime.

OUTLOOK ... Weekend appears slightly unsettled especially in northern counties but could provide at least some dry weather and limited sunshine, in a cool westerly flow. Lows 3-6 C and highs 12-15 C. Into the following week, slightly warmer in stages.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Hot and dry in central regions again today, a few storms developing in Iowa, Missouri and Illinois ahead of the hot, somewhat humid air mass. Cool and dry over the northeast, although near normal. Showery and chilly across the northwest U.S. and much of western Canada, snow at higher elevations in the Rockies and Cascades.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, generally dry on Sunday 8th, cool with highs near 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 10-05-2011 6:27am

Tuesday, 10 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy with some sunny breaks developing, rain in several areas tending to hover in place with redevelopment while areas between these extended showers will stand some chance of remaining dry. At the moment it looks as though the inland south will be feeding one of these rainfall areas, which could produce some limited thunder, northeast towards Kildare and western Dublin, whether it holds together later when it has to cross the higher ground remains to be seen. Another persistent area of rain will be found in Connacht northeast to central Ulster. There may be a third area developing from around Limerick northeast towards Westmeath. Rainfall with these persistent showers will amount to 10-20 mms locally while other places see only 1-3 mms. Winds moderate SW'ly in most places and highs 13-16 C, mildest east coast. There should be a general improvement except perhaps in Connacht by afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, showers, breezy, lows 4-7 C. Rainfalls 3-5 mms.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy but overcast in the north with more frequent showers there, amounts 3-7 mms. Winds SW to W 15-30 mph and highs reaching 13-15 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, some longer sunny intervals in the south, showers in the north, winds westerly backing to southwest 15-30 mph, lows around 5 C and highs around 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Somewhat cooler with frequent light showers in most places and some heavier showers developing across Connacht. Hail could be fairly widespread on higher ground and summits could see a touch of snow, as the freezing levels will drop to about 1,200m. But down where most people live, lows will stay above freezing (2-5 C) and highs about 11-13 C in a brisk westerly. Some thunder likely too, but this situation may not be all that unstable so it could be more of a drizzly cold pattern in the east and south.

OUTLOOK ... Slowly improving over the weekend and through next week as Atlantic high pressure edges closer, keeping winds NW'ly to N'ly at times, so considerable cloud likely in the north and northwest, isolated showers continuing but longer sunny intervals for the south especially. The following weekend (21-22 May) at present looks settled and a bit warmer. This is quite early for the forecast period though.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Hot and dry conditions continue to dominate the central states about as far north as South Dakota. Further north and west, rain continues at lower elevations, maintaining high flood levels in Manitoba, and snow is falling over higher elevations of the Rockies. The hot, dry air mass extends into the southeast while the northeast states are in a cool cloudy northeast flow between offshore low pressure and strong high pressure near Hudson Bay.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday 9th was a cloudy, somewhat warmer day with highs around 15 C, light winds. We could do with more sunshine but at least the spring blooming has now reached its peak,

and also my allergic reactions. :mad:

TONIGHT ...

M.T. Cranium · 11-05-2011 6:30am

Wednesday, 11 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy with some sunny breaks mostly in eastern counites, as low cloud, drizzle or light rain moves into Atlantic coastal districts at times. Scattered showers elsewhere, rainfalls 2-4 mms at most. Highs 13-15 C, milder east. Winds W 15-30 mph.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, showers mostly in western counties, breezy (winds W 10-20 mph) and some fog developing on hills, lows 4-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, a few showers mostly in Connacht, breezy (WNW 15-30 mph backing to SW later), lows near 5 C and highs near 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, rather chilly with showers, some with hail and thunder, a few sunny intervals mixed in, then becoming overcast with intervals of light rain ... morning lows 3-6 C, afternoon highs only 11-13 C.

SATURDAY ... Showers, breezy, still rather cool with lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud with longer sunny intervals in the south, showers at times further north, lows near 5 C and highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat more settled at times next week, temperatures near normal. The outlook for the following weekend has now become rather showery and breezy. Temperatures over the next two weeks seem likely to average slightly below normal by 0.5 to 1.0 C deg.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The hot, humid air mass across central regions has become unstable and is about to develop some major severe weather later today in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Further east, it remains rather cool with low pressure just offshore creating a northeast flow. The west is also rather chilly with some further snowfalls in mountain areas and rain at lower elevations.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, high near 13 C on Tuesday 10th ... rain just started to fall this evening local time.

M.T. Cranium · 12-05-2011 7:14am

Thursday, 12 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Widespread morning showers in western and northern counties, spreading at times further east, with some improvement later to longer dry intervals and somewhat more sunshine between cloudy intervals ... breezy and sometimes gusty (WNW 15-30 mph) ... highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, showers, breezy and cool. Lows 4-7 C.

FRIDAY ... Cool and breezy with some rather heavy showers developing over the north and west at times, hail and thunder possible, even a touch of snow on summits above 800m. Somewhat less unsettled in south and east but a few showers there also. Winds westerly veering to NW 15-35 mph. Highs only 10-13 C at low elevations and 5-8 C higher elevations.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, continuing rather cool and unsettled, showers mainly north and west, winds westerly 15-30 mph, lows near 4 C inland to about 8 C west coast, and highs 12-15 C. Still likely to be quite cold at summit level for anyone thinking of climbing.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of light rain at times across the north, but turning a bit milder as winds back to SW, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C. A fairly dry day likely in the south with some sunshine.

MONDAY - TUESDAY ... This may be a relatively pleasant interval especially in the south, with higher pressure nearby, but still somewhat breezy and unsettled in the north. Highs in the range 15-18 C. Slight risk of ground frost in the most frost-prone locations.

WEDNESDAY to SUNDAY OUTLOOK ... This period looks generally cool and unsettled, especially around Friday (20th) and Saturday (21st). Highs would be in the 13-15 C range on current indications.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... the week after that looks warmer and drier on the long-range guidance charts. Who knows, it may even turn out that way.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Widespread severe storms developed from eastern Texas north to eastern Nebraska. Warm and humid in most areas east of this front, except rather cool with northeast winds in parts of New England. Cool and wet in the western U.S. and western Canada, although near normal temperatures most areas of inland B.C. and Alberta.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... I am proud to say that we are managing to produce even worse weather than yourselves most days, and today in particular, as it rained non-stop and hit a rather modest high of 13 deg C. The local mountain ranges are still very much snow-covered and concerns about an eventual rapid melt and valley flooding are increasing. No sign of any really warm weather around here next week or two either, although we are expecting one or two sunny days end of this week.

M.T. Cranium · 13-05-2011 6:08am

Friday, 13 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Cool and unsettled with showers gradually extending across most regions from present coverage in west and northwest ... some showers may turn thundery with hail, and sleet or snow could fall on summits above 800m, which may become evident later as skies briefly clear towards sunset. Winds rather blustery at times from west at 20-35 mph. Highs only 10-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals then cloudy again, drizzle or light rain spreading into Connacht ... chilly, lows near 5 C on average but could fall as low as 2-3 C inland southeast where clear skies persist longer.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, breezy and cool, highs 11-14 C, winds veering to NW 15-30 mph. Longer dry intervals towards evening.

SUNDAY ... Some improvements across the south with drier weather and some sunshine, a bit warmer too ... remaining rather cloudy and breezy in the north, with some showers persisting at times. Lows generally 3-5 C and highs in the range of 11-15 C mildest south.

MONDAY ... Breezy, some intervals of light rain in north, sunny breaks more frequent south, milder, lows near 7 C and highs 14-17 C.

TUESDAY ... Likely to be the best day of the week with some sunshine, highs near 17 C after a cool start, and clouds increasing rapidly in the evening with overnight showers arriving in the west near midnight.

OUTLOOK ... Turning quite chilly again for several days as Greenland sends another belated sample, so highs not far into the teens and lows well down towards freezing, promoting a slight risk of frost inland if skies ever clear for any length of time. The weekend following (21st-22nd) now looks somewhat improved over previous suggestions, part of a gradual warming trend likely to peak during the last week of May.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... More showers and thunderstorms in central states moving slowly east, not overly severe in most cases ... generally warm although near normal further east ... rather chilly across the west except for a separate pocket of warmth developing under cut-off high pressure near Alberta. Severe flooding threatens Manitoba as rivers run very high but fortunately there is little rain in their five-day outlook, just spotty drizzle at times.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Slight improvement on Thursday as clouds gradually parted to reveal some blue skies by late afternoon, staying rather chilly though, high of about 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 14-05-2011 7:21am

Saturday, 14 May, 2011
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TODAY ... A dry start in most areas, with showers likely to spread into the west this morning and some parts of the east and south later, although a few places there could remain dry ... some sunny intervals mostly confined to east and south by afternoon ... winds NW 15-30 mph ... highs 13-15 C. Where it does rain, 2-5 mms on average.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, some longer clear intervals in southeast, showers likely to continue in northwest, winds backing to W 15-30 mph and remaining rather blustery in exposed west coast districts ... lows about 7 C ... rainfalls of 1-3 mms.

SUNDAY ... Turning a bit warmer across the south with variable cloud and some sunny intervals, but cloudy with intervals of light rain across the north, highs in the range of 13-17 C north to south, and rainfalls of 3-5 mms in the north. Winds WSW 20-35 mph.

MONDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, further showers or rain in the north, winds WSW 20-35 mph, lows 7-10 C and highs 13-16 C.

TUESDAY ... Some improvements for the south with a less breezy interval and more sunshine mid-day, highs near 17 C. The north however won't see much if any improvement with cloud, westerly winds and showers continuing, highs near 13 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Blustery winds, chilly with showers, highs 11-13 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, showers, highs 12-14 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... Likely to remain rather cool and unsettled with gusty winds at times and showers, highs remaining in the 12-15 C range. A slight improvement seems likely in the following week.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Extensive showers, some heavy storms embedded, moving further east on Friday, will be spreading through the Ohio valley and inland Carolinas and southeast on Saturday and towards the east coast and New England on Sunday. Warm and humid ahead of this slow-moving front. Very cool and dry air mass spreading south from Manitoba behind the front, with extensive low cloud as far south as Kansas, and highs only in the 5-10 C range in the northern and central plains states, also rather cool and dry but sunny further south, and with the sunshine at least reasonably warm, 20-24 C, but with low humidity nights will be much cooler than normal. Western regions becoming wet as fronts move onshore.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday 13th was a welcome sunny interval in the cloudy weather pattern, and the high responded by reaching 16 C. Clouding over tonight with more rain moving in soon.

M.T. Cranium · 15-05-2011 6:49am

Sunday, 15 May, 2011
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TODAY ... A cloudy start for most, and rather windy, with drizzle or light rain across the north. Some improvements across the south especially by late morning and afternoon. Sunny breaks may be brief except in the lee of some higher terrain. Winds WSW 20-35 mph. Highs 12-14 C north to 15-17 C south. Rainfall amounts 2-5 mms north, trace to 2 mms elsewhere.

TONIGHT ... Further showers or drizzle at times mostly in north and west, mild and humid with westerly breezes 15-25 mph, lows 7-10 C.

MONDAY ... Rather similar conditions to today, rain or drizzle at times in the north, cool and breezy there, but brighter at times in the south. Highs around 13-15 C north, 15-17 C south. Winds W 20-35 mph.

TUESDAY ... Although somewhat wet at times in west and north, there could also be longer sunny intervals in the east and south with a brief decrease in the winds, highs 12-15 C north, 15-18 C south.

WEDNESDAY ... Becoming rather windy again and turning colder with widespread squally showers, some hail. Highs about 12-14 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Unsettled, cool, breezy. Highs 12-15 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Gradual improvements now expected as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in from southwest. It may stay rather cloudy and damp in north but could break to some sunshine at times in south. Highs likely to be in the range of 13 C north to 17 C south.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The European model is suggesting a warm spell for the following week (23-27 May) and other models are at least partially in agreement.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Showers are advancing east through coastal states now and it will be a rather wet Sunday in New York and New England, and cloud extends well back to the west of low pressure in the Great Lakes to cover much of the central plains region. This is holding temperatures down to only 10 C or thereabouts. Further south it is seasonably warm now, and unusually dry as Gulf humidity is held away. A slow moving frontal system is moving east through Nevada and spreading rain north into a trough that ends up around the west coast. Although it is warming up slightly in a southeast flow, there is only really hot weather in southern Arizona.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday 14th turned out quite pleasant with cloud breaking at times and rain mostly holding off except for a few traces, but a steady rain arrived around 6 pm and has probably dropped about 3-5 mms since then. The high was about 18 C.

M.T. Cranium · 16-05-2011 7:23am

Monday, 16 May, 2011
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Is anyone getting that groundhog day feeling yet?

TODAY ... cloudy in most regions, with a few brighter intervals developing mid-day and afternoon across the southern third of the country ... occasional rain or drizzle further north, only 1-3 mms at most ... highs near 13 C in the north to 16 C south. ... Winds westerly 20-30 mph, somewhat slacker by later afternoon and evening.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals developing in the south, but remaining cloudy elsewhere, some light rain at times, not as breezy though ... lows 8 to 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy in the northern and central counties, some sunny breaks developing south and southeast. Morning rain or drizzle mainly confined to west coast counties, then a dry interval most places, with evening rain or showers developing. Highs 14 C (north) to 18 C (south).

WEDNESDAY ... Becoming quite breezy to windy again, a bit cooler with passing heavy showers, some with hail ... lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C. Winds WSW 20-30 mph. Rainfalls about 3-5 mms.

THURSDAY ... Breezy, unsettled, lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C. Rainfalls about 1-3 mms.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 15 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Turning somewhat warmer, unsettled north, sunny intervals south ... winds SW backing to southerly later, highs near 17 C on Saturday and possibly 19-20 C by Sunday. This warmer spell could last for a while at least in the south and east, the prospects further north and west are less certain but even there an improved weather picture seems likely.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The east remains wet and what little warm air was left by Sunday night was being squeezed out of the low in New England, so highs on Monday will probably struggle to reach 15 C. Cool and cloudy with scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle well back to the west in a broad northeast flow. Somewhat warmer but not up to seasonal norms in the Gulf coast region. A low in Nevada moving slowly into Idaho will continue to spread rain into the Pacific northwest. The southeast flow has warmed temperatures in some regions and snow melt is beginning to promote river flooding in some parts of central B.C. and the inland parts of the northwest U.S.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday 15th was a cloudy, misty day with light rain most of the day, only a few mms in total. Winds are east to southeast and highs were about 15 C.

M.T. Cranium · 17-05-2011 6:26am

Tuesday, 17 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy at first with some sunny breaks developing especially in eastern and southern counties, and rather warm ... a few showers or periods of drizzle confined to the northwest coast, even there not very heavy ... highs near 14 C north to near 18 C southeast.

TONIGHT ... Showers at times, heavier in the north, 3-5 mms possible there, as winds pick up from the WSW at 20-30 mph. Lows 6-8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, more sunny breaks in south and east, frequent showers across Connacht and Ulster, also Clare, winds W 20-35 mph and highs 14-16 C, higher near east coast.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, some showers in north and west at times, but generally dry in south and east, winds SW 20-30 mph, lows 3-7 C and highs 14-16 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, periods of rain in west, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

SATURDAY ... Rather windy and showery, heaviest rain western counties during morning, shifting more to northern counties later, potential for 10-15 mms there, lows near 12 C and highs near 16 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy, mild, showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

OUTLOOK ... Monday may become quite windy and even stormy at times in the west and north as deep low pressure races past Connacht, then the weather pattern looks set to improve gradually with a warmer and drier interval later in the week.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Little change as rain continues in the northeast, cool and mainly dry weather in central states, although warmer and dry in central Canada with some severe fires breaking out in north-central Alberta, wet across the Pacific northwest and some parts of British Columbia. Hot and dry in the southwest, with this heat slowly replacing cool, dry air mass in Texas and Oklahoma. Severe storms likely to develop mid-week in Colorado, Kansas, north Texas and Oklahoma.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday 16th was cloudy but dry, with a high near 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 18-05-2011 6:30am

Wednesday, 18 May, 2011
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Perhaps because of all the cloud there and here, I overlooked the date of the full moon -- it was yesterday. It will continue to look full tonight though, and you'll notice that it hangs low in the south even at its highest point around 0200h.

TODAY ... Once a weak front clears the southeast and takes sporadic light showers with it, expect an interval of bright although somewhat cloudy weather (watery sun visible through altostratus) that will then be followed by lower cloud in some northern counties and a few more showers there. Expect the higher overcast to break up to scattered towering cumulus later in the south, mostly dry shower clouds that could drop a brief downpour in one or two locations. Even so, large parts of the south and east should stay dry, and winds will be fresh from a westerly direction at 20-30 mph. Highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, as any northern cloud and showers gradually move away, and a weak ridge develops ... this may be one of the colder nights all month with lows 3-6 C and the very slight risk of ground frost in sheltered inland locations. Winds falling off to light.

THURSDAY ... A bright and in many places sunny day with fresh southwest winds developing, increasing cloud late morning west to afternoon east, followed by light rain ... except for the far north, where cloud may come and go all day with a few showers in Donegal mostly. Highs 15-17 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, intervals of rain developing, becoming rather heavy at times in western counties, potential for 5-15 mms there. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C. Strong southerly winds arriving by evening in the west.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, early morning rain followed by some brighter intervals and a second band of rain crossing the country later with 10-15 mms potential, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C. Winds SW 25-40 mph.

SUNDAY ... Brighter intervals developing, showers becoming widely separated and some longer dry intervals, westerly breezes 15-30 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

MONDAY ... Windy and wet, unless we get a last minute change of mind from the models, potential for (SSW-WSW) wind gusts to 50 mph and heavy showers at times. Lows near 12 C and highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Models are giving different solutions at present, the general trend is certainly improving but this persistent storm track just to the north of Donegal may not fade away until late in the week, so splitting the difference would suggest partly cloudy and showery weather to continue in the north most of the week, a drying trend across the south. Eventually it seems likely to turn quite a bit warmer late next week and towards the end of May.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... A fairly minor severe storm outbreak in eastern Colorado late Tuesday will be seeding a stronger outbreak in Kansas and Oklahoma on Wednesday. If you're a storm chase follower, there could be some dramatic action late today. The northeast states continue to be plagued by low cloud and rain -- in Boston on Tuesday, the wind was northeast at 30 mph and it was barely 9 or 10 deg C. This won't improve a lot today either. ... Warm and dry around a sprawling high over central Canada as far west as central B.C. now as fronts are breaking up and allowing a warm southeast wind to push across the Rockies.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday 17th was a mainly sunny day after morning cloud broke up, and it was rather cool due to the sea breeze, about 14 C for a high.

M.T. Cranium · 19-05-2011 6:42am

Thursday, 19 May, 2011
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TODAY ... A sunny start to the day for most, then increasing high cloud in the west around mid-day and covering the east by late afternoon ... it should remain dry except perhaps in north Donegal where a bit of mist or drizzle will blow in this afternoon ... highs about 15 C north to 17 C south ... winds rather light this morning then increasing to SW 15-25 mph.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, a few spots of rain at times, 1-3 mms on average, with the SW breeze continuing, milder than last night at 7-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, further light rain or showers, easing by afternoon with a few sunny breaks developing, highs 15-18 C, winds SSW 15-30 mph. Some sea fog blowing inland by late afternoon west and southwest coasts.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with periods of rain developing, possibly coming across from west to east in two waves, the second of these in the afternoon becoming rather heavy at times. Winds increasing to SW 20-40 mph ... fog and mist on some southern and western coasts and hills inland ... lows 10 to 12 C and highs 14 to 16 C. Rainfalls about 10-20 mms on average.

SUNDAY ... Breezy, partly cloudy, just a few residual morning showers mainly in Ulster, lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C. Winds WSW 20-35 mph.

MONDAY ... Very windy across the west and north (SW 40-60 mph) with squally showers, quite windy elsewhere too (SW 30-50 mph) with squally showers including hail and thunder ... lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.

OUTLOOK ... It will calm down gradually on Tuesday and the showers will be increasingly confined to Ulster before ending completely, then it may become rather chilly with risk of scattered frosts well inland mid-week. A second disturbance may bring some light rain but now this one looks like it may run into an episode of "height building" (not a bad TV show you've so far managed to miss) that could finally bring some milder and settled conditions for a while around Friday and Saturday. Models seem convinced that this decent spell will be terminated rather quickly around Sunday 29th with yet another westerly gale. However, the pattern emerging does have elements of promise for warmer and more settled weather in early June.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Wednesday's storm development proved rather anemic after all, but there's a lot of unstable cloud around that could lead to some scattered severe storms later today in Kansas and Oklahoma. Further west, it looks quite hot and dry, with highs likely to be near 38 C or 100F in west Texas and parts of Arizona and New Mexico. Otherwise, much of North America is covered by rather chilly air masses and widespread low cloud, except for the Canadian prairies which have some pockets of warm and dry weather and outbreaks of forest fires.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday 18th was a sunny day with a cool breeze and a high of about 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 20-05-2011 6:30am

Friday, 20 May, 2011
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Unsettled and changeable weather now to about Tuesday, improving after mid-week, turning warmer

TODAY ... Morning showers (3-7 mms) will slowly clear east, with variable cloud to follow, some sunny intervals across the south spreading to the east coast by afternoon. Winds SW 20-30 mph veering more westerly later, then backing to strong southerly tonight. Highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, periods of rain and windy, some heavy downpours developing, winds SSW 20-40 mph, lows 10-12 C. Foggy over south coast and higher terrain in general.

SATURDAY ... The first wave of rainfall should begin to clear east in the morning, followed by a brief interval of dry but windy weather with some sunny breaks. Winds SSW 30-50 mph, highs 14-16 C. A second front with heavy and possibly squally or thundery showers will arrive late in the day. Winds will increase to SW 35-60 mph with the higher gusts in Connacht and west Munster. Total rainfalls 15-30 mms possible.

SUNDAY ... Early morning strong winds (WSW 40-60 mph) and brief downpours of heavy rain, tending to clear rapidly south but remaining cloudy and drizzly further north, winds easing slowly and remaining WSW 20-40 mph, highs 13-15 C. Feeling chilly due to the damp and the strong winds, especially across the north.

MONDAY ... Periods of rain turning to squally showers, moderate to strong SW winds developing, gusts to 65 mph possible in Connacht, 55 mph elsewhere, lows of about 10 C and highs near 13 C.

TUESDAY ... Continued rather windy and showery with winds WSW 20-40 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Although somewhat uncertain with a bit of spread in model guidance, the trend will definitely be improving towards the end of the week, so would expect partly cloudy weather mid-week, chances for isolated inland frost around Wed 25th, sunny conditions later in the week, and rising temperatures for daytime hours at least, highs near 16 C mid-week to 20 C or perhaps a bit higher by the end of the week and the weekend of 28th-29th May. Some signs of a fairly long spell of settled weather although it could briefly turn a bit cooler around Monday 30th.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... A few severe storms developed on Thursday across western Oklahoma and central Kansas. Hot, humid air has moved as far north as about northeast Kansas to South Carolina. Further north, the remnants of a large swirl of cool, cloudy air mass showing signs of modifying to warm and dry over the next few days. Western regions pleasant near normal temperatures and sunshine under a weak ridge.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny and pleasantly warm on Thursday, high of about 17 C.

M.T. Cranium · 20-05-2011 6:38pm

UPDATE -- Alert now posted for heavy rainfalls and strong winds

This alert is to confirm that heavy rainfalls will develop late tonight and Saturday morning in many areas, with 20-30 mms potential, and although rather windy during this rainfall, much stronger winds will follow with a second frontal disturbance also bringing 5-10 mms further rainfall and some squally showers Saturday night into Sunday morning.

The strongest winds will arrive on the Atlantic coast around 2100h to midnight Saturday and persist most of the night, easing slowly on Sunday morning. Gusts to 65 mph (about 110 km/hr) are likely in exposed areas on both the west and south coasts, and to 80 mph (130 km/hr) on higher terrain well exposed to the west. These strong winds will start from a SSW direction and veer more to westerly before easing. For the Dublin area and most of the eastern counties, would expect an interval of 50 mph gusts before dawn on Sunday, and another blast of wind from the west locally enhanced by gaps in the eastern hills. Some areas can be sheltered from these winds while others see locally stronger gusts.

Anyone living in hilly terrain in the west might also experience locally damaging gusts due to lee wave effects, allowing small funnel type cloud formations to bounce along the surface. Would not be unduly concerned but we do expect to hear one or two reports of local wind damage as this system blows through, but remember, that means your chances of getting wind damage are about one in a million.

M.T. Cranium · 21-05-2011 6:42am

Saturday, 21 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Wet and windy to start, with the southeast last into the rain, and potential for 15-25 mms across the country, heavier north and west ... some brighter intervals developing, limited sunshine but the rain should temporarily end mid-day west and afternoon east, while throughout, the winds remain moderately strong S to SW 25-45 mph, with a few higher gusts. Highs 14-16 C but rather chilly until the rain ends. Slight chance of thunder developing across Leinster and eastern Munster mid-day.

TONIGHT ... (alert) Becoming very windy with further rain or squally showers, winds SW 35-55 mph but gusts to 65 mph in Connacht and some parts of west Munster (and 75 mph on high summits) ... risk of some local wind damage especially near hills ... lows near 8 C but feeling very cold where exposed to the wind. Further rainfalls 5-10 mms.

SUNDAY ... Strong winds abating mid-morning, veering to westerly 40-60 mph briefly then settling in at 30-45 mph much of the day, with a lot of cloud left over, some light rain or drizzle becoming confined to northern counties by afternoon, and late day clearing for a few hours. Highs 12-14 C and feeling quite chilly.

MONDAY ... Another storm will rapidly develop and it will become wet and windy again, with another surge of very strong winds in the evening and overnight into Tuesday morning. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C, rainfalls of 10-30 mms, winds WSW 40-60 mph and some charts now showing alert conditions to 75 mph in coastal Mayo and Donegal. Stay tuned...

TUESDAY ... Rapid improvements across the south as the strong winds pull away from the north by mid-day and the cloud should part more readily than with the weekend storm. Winds westerly and quite strong in the morning, then moderate by afternoon. Lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C north, 14 C south.

WEDNESDAY to SATURDAY ... It is a rather "close run thing" but models continue to plant high pressure over Ireland and hold back the storm that wants to make it "three in a row" forcing that to spin around between Ireland and the Azores, and allowing the high to promote a weak easterly flow that should be dry and a bit warmer than of late. Temperatures should rise a degree or two each day until a peak around Sunday of 20-22 C in places. The first part of this dry spell could also give scattered ground frosts well inland, these more likely Wednesday and Thursday. Eventually this warmer dry spell should end with a modified cool northwesterly but there may not be much rain with this air mass change.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms in a zone from about Dallas to Saint Louis, and also rain breaking out across the Dakotas and parts of western Canada. Dry and warm further west around the Pacific coast but clouding over now. The east remains a bit unsettled in the dying remnants of an old swirl of low pressure off the New England coast, radar was showing a few thunderstorms moving southwest in that region on Friday, but the sun was finally out in a few places too, allowing temperatures to recover to near normal values (around 20 to 23 C at this point).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday 20th was the rare perfect day with warm sunshine and low humidity. Figures that a long weekend is now starting and cloud is moving in. The high was about 22 C. Not expecting a total washout, just a lot of cloud and scattered showers.

M.T. Cranium · 21-05-2011 7:54pm

UPDATE _ Saturday 8 p.m.
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This update concerns the second wind event in the forecast predicted for late Monday. The first event is on track and should begin to ramp up soon in western counties, as the low moves northeast through Donegal Bay around midnight and into western Scotland by morning. See the forecast above for details on this first event.

The second wind event now looks even stronger than previously depicted on all the reliable models, and forecast is now amended for SW winds of 45-70 mph over much of Ireland on Monday with 55-80 mph possible in parts of Connacht and west Munster. The strongest winds are now expected to arrive Monday early afternoon and persist through to late evening, gradually abating overnight except in north coast regions which will stay very windy until mid-morning Tuesday.

This intensification seems to have thrown the models into general confusion about events later in the week. The four models that I consider most reliable have basically four different solutions for the next disturbance in the series which they were all discounting in previous model runs. Now the ideas for the late week weather scenario range from unchanged (high pressure building in, the next low fizzling out to the south), to another strong low with strong winds late Wednesday and further showery weather to the weekend, to the third low becoming moderately strong and grinding to a halt over Ireland.

I will wait to see if there is a bit more agreement than this by the time I generate the next morning forecast ... this will allow the models two more chances to get their acts together. However, on the balance of the model spread at present, would suggest that Wednesday more likely to be showery than dry now. Beyond that, I don't really see a strong enough consensus to write off the promised warmer and dry spell late in the week and into the weekend, and I hope that won't be the outcome as I think this current progression of fronts has done the trick in terms of easing the dry conditions that were in place, a lot more would be too much of a good thing.

M.T. Cranium · 22-05-2011 6:54am

Sunday, 22 May, 2011
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TODAY ... From now to about 0930h, there may be a few severe gusts in one or two locations and squally showers with hail, but these conditions will not be all that widespread, just in a few places near higher terrain mostly.

Windy with showers becoming widely separated by later this morning, and turning more to drizzle in northwest and north as the winds gradually decrease, from WSW 35-55 mph down to about 20-40 mph later. The sun may appear in the south at times this afternoon although higher cloud will quickly spread in over all regions from the next, more powerful storm. Highs today around 12 C north to 14 C south.

TONIGHT ... Rain setting in quickly as winds rapidly increase from the SSW, reaching 30-50 mph by midnight and 45-70 mph by morning. About 10-15 mms of rain on average, and lows near 7 C.

MONDAY ... Alert for strong winds in most regions, WSW 40-60 mph in most places and 50-80 mph in exposed west, south coast and upland terrain. Squally showers and perhaps hail and thunder, with variable cloud to follow, further showers, and winds veering to westerly. Staying very windy most of the day. Highs 13-15 C.

TUESDAY ... Overnight, the winds should gradually subside but will stay westerly and remain 20-40 mph for most regions especially Ulster. Lows will reach about 6 C and there will only be light drizzle if any further rain. During the day, it should clear at least partially and turn less windy, with highs of about 12-14 C. Winds backing late in the day to southerly. Cloud increasing again by evening.

WEDNESDAY ... It now looks as though a third storm in the series will try to compete with the first two, and while not quite as strong, the results will be about the same on a more gradual time scale. So Wednesday will slowly become more windy from the south and scattered showers may merge to a general rain especially in the northwest. The southeast could remain largely dry. Lows of about 2-5 C will be followed by highs near 12 C. Rather chilly in a raw breeze with the drizzly rain.

THURSDAY ... Showers, becoming rather heavy for a brief interval, then windy again but this time from the northwest to north, some further rain likely especially north, lows near 7 C and highs only 10-13 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, a few showers likely, but not quite as windy. Lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Gradual improvement through the weekend although some indications that another brief squally interval could develop on Saturday morning affecting mostly Ulster and nearby parts of Connacht and Leinster. Winds W to NW could briefly rise to 30-40 mph. Sunday looks likely to be dry and improved over Saturday. Highs around 14 C on Saturday and 17 C on Sunday. The changes are probably related (in terms of model evolution) to the stronger development on Monday but I would hold out this sliver of hope for a return to a better forecast scenario later in the week: if the Monday storm happens to underperform then (can recall this sort of flip-flop on a few occasions) there is some hope of a less active pattern to follow.

The new scenario also makes a warming into June very gradual but there are signs of warm weather at times in the week of 30 May to 3 June now.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Showers and thunderstorms becoming generally less severe but spreading over large parts of the Midwest and northern plains into southern parts of the Canadian prairies. Temperatures throughout near normal. Rather hot and dry in west Texas westward to southern California. Wet and overcast weather has spread into the Pacific northwest and most of British Columbia, with cool to seasonable temperatures.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday 21st was cloudy with light rain or drizzle, but not much accumulation, perhaps 1-2 mms. The high was about 15 C.

Will definitely update today's forecast around 7-8 p.m., drop by and check it out, perhaps the details will change on both the big windstorm and the unsettled weather to follow.

M.T. Cranium · 22-05-2011 7:27pm

Update -- Sunday, 7:30 p.m.

The available guidance for the storm expected late tonight and Monday has not changed very much. Expect winds to increase dramatically after 0300h in western counties and shortly after daybreak in eastern counties, with the peak gustiness likely to develop around 0900h to 1200h on the west coast and just slightly later than that elsewhere.

There is some tendency on the model charts to depict this as a mainly for the northwest counties windstorm, but I suspect that very strong gusts will develop in almost all regions as the jet stream appears to be very strong across the southern half of the country. This will interact with any showers that develop along the fast-moving fronts and following troughs, to "mix down" the stronger winds aloft towards the surface.

My predictions for maximum wind gusts would be around 80 knots in the northwest (this equates to about 90 mph or 140 km/hr) and 60-65 knots or about 70 mph (110 km/hr) in more exposed parts of the south and east. Locations in central Ireland may record maximum gusts around 50 knots, but there is always the risk of tornadic wind streaks in a situation like this -- be assured that many eyes will be watching this storm so the boards forecast and dedicated threads will be updated with any specific alerts if that kind of wind damage appears potentially likely. Just from a modelling point of view (and well in advance of the details of the storm being visible) you would suspect the biggest chance of a tornadic wind streak event here to occur across the central counties towards Meath or Kildare but that's just a general idea of where to look for radar evidence. The timing would be around 1000h to 1300h for the maximum risk.

More updates to follow if necessary, and the Monday morning forecast package may be posted a bit early and then updated as necessary.

Would advise spending the rest of daylight looking around your property for any loose items and assessing if your vehicles would get hit by tree branches or worse from a WSW direction especially if you live in an area that regularly gets stronger winds than most. The one good thing is, President Obama has very little hair to mess up. :cool:

M.T. Cranium · 23-05-2011 6:38am

Monday, 23 May, 2011
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No major changes in this forecast, including the longer term, but I have added some details for today.

TODAY ... Alert for strong and locally damaging wind gusts

Connacht, already very windy, will experience gale to storm force gusts all morning and well into the afternoon. Heavy showers will turn more squally and then skies will become partly cloudy with passing showers including some hail and thunder. Winds from SSW 45-65 mph will veer to WSW increasing to 50-80 mph, local gusts to 90 mph, and only subside slightly before evening. Rainfalls 10-20 mms, highs 11-13 C, feeling very cold in the wind at times. Rainfalls 10-20 mms. Local flooding near coasts in a few places due to minor storm surges. Very large waves developing, use caution if viewing them later.

Munster, rain ending soon in west, persisting to 1030h east, then becoming quite windy this morning especially in Kerry and Clare, later Cork and Limerick, SSW 40-60 mph, then winds SW 45-65 mph this afternoon, although somewhat higher in exposed hilly areas. Risk of squally showers and even some thunder and hail, locally damaging wind gusts to 80 mph. More sunshine developing later in the day with showers becoming more widely separated although still a few quite heavy. Rainfalls 10-20 mms and highs 13 or 14 C. Some locally high water or flooding near coastal estuaries at high tides.

Leinster, rain becoming heavy for a time, winds rising to SSW 40-60 mph, veering rapidly mid-morning to WSW 45-65 mph, risk of locally severe storms with thunder, hail and damaging wind gusts or even a brief and small tornado (this applies to nearby parts of other regions), watch for updates on this risk ... rainfalls of 15-25 mms, highs 13-15 C and a few sunny intervals by afternoon, showers more isolated, but still quite squally at times, winds rapidly subsiding around 5-7 p.m. to W 20-40 mph.

Ulster ... Rain, heavy at times, winds increasing (in Donegal, already at) SSW 40-60 mph veering to WSW 60-90 mph with locally severe gusts and wind damage quite possible especially in areas well exposed to the Atlantic or between hills to north and south. Slight risk of a tornadic wind streak developing well inland especially south of Lough Neagh. Belfast and parts of Down not quite as windy, WSW 45-65 mph. Mostly cloudy all day but a few glimpses of sunshine late day, as showers become less frequent. Rainfalls 15 to 30 mms, highs 12-14 C. Winds staying strong until about 10 p.m. or so.

TONIGHT (general) ... Winds rapidly decreasing except near north coast where gradually decreasing, by midnight about 20-30 mph W most places, but 30-50 mph north coast. Clear intervals south, mostly cloudy with drizzle or light rain at times north. Lows generally 5-7 C. Feeling much colder in exposed locations.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, some low cloud near north coast, foggy there at times, moderate WNW winds backing to SSW late in day, increasing cloud, highs near 12 C north to 15 C south.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud in eastern counties, cloudy with occasional rain western counties, becoming foggy over hills, moderate SSE winds and raw near coasts, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C. About 10-20 mms rain in west only.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, showers, an interval of light winds as low drifts through Ireland in the morning, then an interval with strong northwest winds and scattered showers or coastal drizzle, winds 30-50 mph at times, lows of about 7 C and highs near 13 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, not as windy, a few showers mainly in north, winds WNW 15-30 mph, a bit warmer too, lows near 6 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, breezy, some showers, perhaps heavy for a while in Ulster and nearby parts of Connacht and Leinster, some sunny intervals, lows near 5 C and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, a bit warmer again, lows near 6 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

OUTLOOK ... Some chance of a warmer interval returning to the charts for the following week ... in the second week out, maps that remind me of the December cold spell, although of course at this time of year, the air mass would be 10-12 C daytime and 4-7 C overnight, with drizzle or rain instead of snow from the Irish Sea. I mention this because it may well not show up again or actually happen, but it looks intriguing (on GFS).

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Sadly, there were some major tornadoes on Sunday, and the city of Joplin Missouri has taken a major hit. There could be a considerable death and damage toll once rescue operations have run their course. It sounds very bad (F4-5) and there is talk of large areas of the city being destroyed, including parts of a hospital and some mega-stores. One never knows, but warnings for this storm may not have been as good as in some cases as the storm arrived totally rain-wrapped and was too massive to escape very easily. Expect to hear about a fairly substantial death toll, I'm sad to say, perhaps over 100. There were many other severe storms from the western Great Lakes to northeast Texas, but none seem to have been overly catastrophic, although there may be one or two isolated deaths given the numbers involved. Further east, it has been turning warmer on Sunday, while the west is generally hot and dry in the south, and cloudy with light rain further north. The weather systems are rather benign in comparison to both central U.S. and Ireland. This tornado disaster, rather than your local windy weather, may cause some changes in the Obama visit, I haven't heard anything as of now.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday 22nd was cloudy with a few sunny breaks and only a few spits of rain, nothing measurable. Highs around 16 C.

Updates to follow on today's windstorm. But also, monitor the weather report and storm threads in the forum.

M.T. Cranium · 23-05-2011 1:07pm

UPDATE _ Monday, 1:00 p.m.
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Radar now indicating the first signs of what should develop into some scattered squally showers with some hail and thunder, and the slight risk of a minimal tornado capable of doing minor damage. To put that in perspective, there is perhaps a 30% chance that we'll get one report of a small tornado later today, so any one person's chance of seeing that would be about one in three million. But hail, thunder and gusty winds will be much more likely and most people will see at least some (more) of those.

It would appear a bit more likely that locally severe showers might develop in a broad zone from about Limerick northeast to Meath, with a second area across north Mayo into west Ulster.

As I am signing off duty now for a while, I hope anyone familiar with the radar would post any urgent updates if there is significant risk later on.

M.T. Cranium · 24-05-2011 6:26am

Tuesday, 24 May, 2011
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The weekend outlook has improved marginally as the models seem to be slightly inclined to downgrade the strength of low pressure to the north at that point. On the other hand, the Icelandic volcano ash could become a minor part of the weather and a major nuisance for travel in a few days.

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, a few isolated showers mostly near the west coast but long dry intervals, some sunshine dimmed at times by high cloud and possibly a trace of volcanic dust or ash, with winds WNW 15-30 mph backing late in the day to SSW 10-20 mph. Highs 12-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, some clear intervals in the southeast, rain edging onto the west coast after midnight, winds SSE 10-20 mph increasing in west to 20-30 mph. Lows 3-6 C east, 6-9 C west.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy, some rather light rain at times, mostly in the west, spreading to the east coast by late afternoon, winds S 15-25 mph, highs near 13 C. Any volcanic ash should decrease for a while as upper level winds turn less favourable for transporting it.

THURSDAY ... Showers, some heavy for a brief interval, then variable cloud, some areas of rain or drizzle, winds turning NNW 20-40 mph, rather chilly by afternoon ... lows 8-10 C and highs 12-14 C. Rain potential through the period about 10-15 mms (probably closer to 5 mms southeast). Some risk of moderate ash deposition in northwest (trace to 1 mm)

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, a bit warmer, showers arriving by evening and becoming rather heavy for a while in Ulster and Connacht. Winds WNW backing WSW 20-40 mph. Lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C north, 17 C south. Continued slight risk of ash or dust.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers probably ending in most areas around mid-morning then some dry intervals, limited sunshine, westerly winds at 15-30 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C. Ash or dust potential may decrease although becoming stronger in Scotland.

SUNDAY ... Cloud and sunshine, isolated showers, breezy, lows near 6 C and highs near 18 C. Ash from Sunday to about Tuesday could reach a maximum, depending on production rates now until then.

OUTLOOK ... A few rather cool and breezy days, with a few showers, near the end of the month but June starting to look promising again as models are now beginning to feature strong high pressure near the Azores building north of Ireland. There could be some warmer easterly type flows, but also intervals that are cooler from north to northeast, into first half of June with this strong signal developing. I think it bodes well for the summer gradually improving relative to normal.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Monday proved a lot less active than the weekend although there were numerous storms from the Great Lakes to Oklahoma. Hot and humid over much of the east now. Cool and dry further north and to the west coast, hot and dry Texas to Arizona and southern Cal inland. Tuesday likely to bring another strong outbreak of severe storms in Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, Missouri and the Ohio valley, central Great Lakes. Central Oklahoma looks volatile for tornadic outbreaks.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... This was a holiday Monday here and we had a pleasant sunny day with highs near 19 C.

M.T. Cranium · 25-05-2011 7:09am

Wednesday, 25 May, 2011
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The pattern is showing faint signs of improving by lifting gradually, but there will be somewhat unsettled weather in most regions each of the next six or seven days. A more summery pattern could evolve if this gradual lift succeeds in allowing stronger high pressure to form south of Ireland by middle of next week. Forecast remains almost unchanged from yesterday ...

TODAY ... Cloudy, some rather light to moderate rain at times, mostly in the west, spreading to the east coast by afternoon, winds S 15-25 mph, except 25-35 mph near west coast with some higher gusts, highs generally near 12 or 13 C. Any volcanic ash in the regional atmosphere should decrease for a while as upper level winds turn less favourable for transporting it. Rainfalls today will vary from 10 mms in Connacht to 2 mms in southeast.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming more showery and perhaps thundery from northwest to southeast with 5-10 mms of rain, winds becoming lighter due to presence of low centre, then northerly for western counties before dawn. Fog and low cloud in this initial phase of the northerly flow. Lows 7-9 C.

THURSDAY ... Showers, some heavy for a brief interval, then variable cloud, some areas of rain or drizzle, winds turning NNW 20-40 mph, rather chilly by afternoon, highs 12-14 C. Rain potential for the rest of the event about 3 mms west to 7 mms east but this would end mid-day in the west. Volcanic dust problems could return later in the day.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, a bit warmer, showers arriving by evening and becoming rather heavy for a while in Ulster and Connacht. Winds WNW backing WSW 20-40 mph. Lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C north, 17 C south. Rainfall potential 5-10 mms mainly north. Continued slight risk of ash or dust.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers probably ending in most areas around mid-morning then some dry intervals, limited sunshine, westerly winds at 15-30 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C. Ash or dust potential may decrease although becoming stronger in Scotland.

SUNDAY ... Cloud and sunshine, isolated showers with a period of heavier showers later in the day, breezy, lows near 6 C and highs near 17 C. Ash from Sunday to about Tuesday could reach a maximum, depending on production rates now until then.

OUTLOOK ... A few rather cool and breezy days, with a few showers, near the end of the month but June starting to look promising again as models are now beginning to feature strong high pressure near the Azores building north of Ireland. There could be some warmer easterly type flows, but also intervals that are cooler from north to northeast, into first half of June with this strong signal developing. I think it bodes well for the summer gradually improving relative to normal.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... On Tuesday, there were major tornadoes, hail and strong winds, as expected from Kansas south to the Dallas-Fort Worth region. Although not as bad as Sunday's storm, some deaths have been reported near Oklahoma City. This front has weakened since about midnight and is now rumbling through Missouri and Arkansas. It remains warm or hot and humid from this front east to the Atlantic now. There are a few other areas of showers and storms, non-severe, in that air mass. The southwest remains hot and dry, although the Great Basin region turned colder with showers into Utah and western Colorado.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks on Tuesday 24th, rather blah, highs near 15 C. Everyone here is more concerned with the local hockey team which won tonight to play in the Cup Final series.

M.T. Cranium · 26-05-2011 6:11am

Thursday, 26 May, 2011
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Once again, we are being shown a light at the end of the tunnel. This time it looks a bit brighter. Alert for some locally strong wind gusts today to 60 m.p.h. in exposed western counties, then a few more breezy and rather variable days, although possibly not too bad in the south at times, but then generally sunny and warmer in early June.

TODAY ... Windy and rather chilly with heavy showers and possibly a bit of hail or thunder, then a clearing trend moving slowly across the country from west to east. Winds rising to NNW 30-50 mph (40-60 mph in exposed western county locations), some decrease likely by late afternoon. Rainfalls of about 5-10 mms, highs 11-14 C (highest southeast), and sunshine hours about 2-4 in east late today, 6-8 in west starting mid-day.

TONIGHT ... Somewhat less windy and chilly, lows 3-6 C. Winds NW 15-30 mph backing to W 10-20. Slight risk of a few showers far northwest coast.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, more sun in south than elsewhere, westerly breezes 15-30 mph, showers arriving late in day in Connacht and spreading to Ulster overnight. Highs 14-17 C, highest in south and east.

SATURDAY ... Morning showers mostly north of Galway to Dublin, then partly cloudy, breezy, morning lows 6-9 C and afternoon highs 12-15 C.

SUNDAY ... Early morning strong winds in northern counties especially (W 30-50 mph but 45-65 mph in Donegal and nearby parts of some other counties), pelting rain or squally showers for a while mostly north of Mayo to Down, but some lighter showers elsewhere, then gradually improving with winds subsiding. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

MONDAY ... Continued breezy and unsettled, lows near 7 C and highs near 15.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, warmer, moderate SW winds to strong SW in Donegal and coastal Mayo. Lows near 5 C and highs near 19 C south, 15 C north.

OUTLOOK ... With the usual caveat, models are advertising quite a warming trend from 1 to 3 June and several warm days to follow. Potentially if these charts verify, we could see highs near 23 C in the inland south and east, to 17 C northwest. Fingers crossed ...

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Wednesday brought further heavy storms and tornadoes to central states, this time from Ohio southwest to Arkansas. I have not heard any reports of severe damage and deaths but numerous reports of moderate damage and some injuries. Heavy rain spread further north into parts of the Great Lakes region. Warm and humid in the southeast and east coast. Cool and dry in north central states, further rain and low cloud in the northwest states and parts of Alberta, B.C. ... hot and dry in the southwest. Unusual weak tornadoes reported in the central valley of California north of Sacramento.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy with rain at times, heavier by evening. High about 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 27-05-2011 6:13am

Friday, 27 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Partly cloudy with longer sunny spells in south and east, but some low cloud, drizzle or light rain developing in Connacht by mid-day, spreading to parts of Ulster by late afternoon. Breezy with winds westerly 15-30 mph. Somewhat warmer than yesterday for most, highs 14-17 C (warmest southeast). Rainfalls 2-5 mms in north only, trace to 2 mms late in day in south. Sunshine hours about 5-8 on average.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy north with light rain at times, 2-5 mms, lows near 10 C. Partly cloudy south, isolated showers, lows near 8 C. Breezy for most with winds backing to SW 15-30 mph.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers continuing mostly in northern counties, where 2-4 mms possible. Longer sunny breaks in south. Winds SW 15-30 mph and highs 14-16 C, milder south.

SUNDAY ... After a showery night with lows near 8 C, the day will become breezy and becoming windy at times mid-day to afternoon, showers gradually becoming more frequent, heavier in Connacht and later Ulster, 5-10 mms potential. Winds SW 20-40 mph increasing to 30-50 mph in north, highs 13-17 C (coolest in north).

MONDAY ... Windy and rather cold with frequent showers, winds W 25-45 mph with some higher gusts in northwest, lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C.

TUESDAY ... Morning showers, variable cloud, then warmer as winds turn more to southwest, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C (could reach 18 C in south).

OUTLOOK WED 1st to MON 6th ... Models continue to show this period as a warm, dry spell, with plenty of sunshine and highs 18-22 C in light easterly winds ... it could possibly reach 24 C in west given this set-up. East coast might have some local sea breezes. Despite a few false dawns with this warm spell, I think this signal is probably too strong to be a false start ... although details may change ... and the warm spell could last into mid-week before a cooler turn to northerly winds around the following weekend (this is very preliminary if you have interests in that weekend).

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Widespread rain and heavy storms on Thursday approaching the east coast but the major cities remained dry and sunny or at least hazy with very warm highs of 27-32 C. Cool and dry central states as far south as Oklahoma, hot and dry in the southwest, but Texas in between with the warmer air pushing back in. Showery over the northwest U.S. and most of western Canada. Friday likely to become very hot in TX and OK with severe storms developing in northern OK and central KS.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy but dry, highs near 13 C.

M.T. Cranium · 28-05-2011 7:19am

Saturday, 28 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Widespread drizzle or light rain in northern and central counties, isolated showers in southern counties this morning ... becoming somewhat brighter in most parts except possibly the far north where showers may prove more persistent this afternoon ... rainfalls 3-7 mms heaviest north ... winds WSW 20-40 mph ... rather chilly with highs 10-13 C north, 13-16 C south.

TONIGHT ... Further showers developing, some heavy at times, amounts 3 to 7 mms, heavier west and north ... breezy or windy, WSW 20-35 mph ... lows around 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Showers likely ending in most areas for part of the day, sunny intervals developing, still quite breezy (SW 20-40 mph gusting to 50 mph in northwest), highs in north about 12-14 C and south 14-16 C. Showers returning by late afternoon west or evening elsewhere.

MONDAY ... Overnight rain, windy, then a showery day with some brighter intervals, windy at times (W 20-40 mph), lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY ... Morning showers, then partly cloudy, breezy, lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Early morning rain from a warm front ( :cool: ) then some hazy sunshine developing, turning warmer. Lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

THURSDAY to MONDAY ... Models continue to agree that this period, including the Bank Holiday weekend, should be warmer and settled with sunshine, light winds from an easterly direction, and potentially quite warm especially away from the east and south coasts, highs possibly 22-24 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Friday was very hot in the southwest, Texas and western Oklahoma with highs to 43 C around Abilene TX ... further north in the plains states, seasonably warm but not much over 25 C ... tonight, a few dry thunderstorms have begun to develop in Kansas ... the northwest states and much of BC, Alberta, are cloudy and showery ... further east, warm and humid over most of the eastern third of the U.S. with heavy rains in places, highs generally 25-30 C. Today, heavier storms will develop in Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri as the hot, increasingly humid air moves further north.

My long-range forecast for the summer indicates that much of the northeast U.S. and Midwest may be considerably cooler than last summer's scorcher, and below average too, with above normal rainfall. I'm expecting hotter than average conditions in the southern plains and inland west.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy with some rain in the morning mostly, a few brief sunny breaks later, highs near 14 C. Still plenty of snow above 1200metres here, and widespread flood concerns once that snow begins to melt in June.

M.T. Cranium · 29-05-2011 6:57am

Sunday, 29 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Another wave of showers will quickly cross northern counties this morning, with some westerly winds at 30-50 mph at times, giving 3-5 mms but the south will get away with trace to 2 mm amounts in more scattered showers there, accompanied by westerly winds 20-40 mph ... then the sun should come out from time to time by mid-day and afternoon, with the southwest wind remaining fairly constant at 20-30 mph. Highs 13-17 C from north to south.

TONIGHT ... Becoming showery again with some rather blustery SW winds at times (30-50 mph), lows near 10 C and rainfalls of 3-5 mms, possibly up to 8 mms in Connacht.

MONDAY ... Dry and in places sunny intervals developing again, winds staying rather strong at WSW 20-40 mph, highs 13-17 C from north to south. Monday night will become windy and showery with 5-10 mms of rain in most places. Winds will increase to WSW 30-55 mph with some strong gusts near the west coast at times.

TUESDAY ... Once again, after lows near 8 C, the morning showers should clear away east and leave most places partly cloudy, breezy and a bit warmer by afternoon, with highs reaching 14-18 C north to south.

WEDNESDAY ... Patchy low cloud and drizzle in the morning across the north and west, lifting during the day, hazy sunshine developing there, otherwise partly cloudy to sunny as the day progresses, warmer, lows near 8 C and highs 17-20 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny, hazy and warmer for most, lows 6-9 C and highs 19-22 except a bit cooler close to the outer coasts, light and variable winds allowing sea breezes in most regions.

FRIDAY to MONDAY ... The warm, dry spell should continue except now with a more developed east to northeast breeze that will favour a cooling sea breeze on the east and north coasts only. Highs will range from 19 to 24 C except near 16 C in sea breezes. The warmest temperatures are likely to be found in central and western counties and the inland south. Slight cooling may develop on the outer south coast too.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The pleasant summery spell may break down fairly quickly mid-week in a more northerly flow, but it may not entirely collapse given that skies could remain partly cloudy and the ground will be quite warm after almost a week of warmth, which suggests daytime highs could recover in the cooler air mass to 17 or 18 C at least away from cooler northeast counties. By the following weekend (11-12 June) it could be a bit unsettled by the looks of the current charts.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Saturday was another very hot day in Texas, highs broke 110 F (43 C) in Abilene TX and nearby. A strong low is developing over Utah and western Colorado, and will move northeast. This will bring a lot of rain and thunderstorms to the northern and central plains starting late Sunday, but so far the fronts ahead of the storm are relatively inactive. The west coast is close to normal temperatures under widespread cloud. Otherwise, the eastern half of the U.S. and southern Ontario are all quite warm and humid with isolated storms, and the Memorial Day weekend underway in the states has generally good weather so far. Any chance for severe storms later Sunday seems likely to be near the Wyoming-Nebraska borders.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday 28th was a cloudy day with some sunny breaks, no rain, and highs near 16 C.

M.T. Cranium · 30-05-2011 6:41am

Monday, 30 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Partly cloudy to start, rather chilly for late May, a few widely scattered showers or thundershowers later, brief in duration but capable of dropping 5-10 mms rain locally ... winds westerly at about 15 mph on average ... highs only 11-14 C from north to south. About 6-8 hours of sunshine in most places.

TONIGHT ... Further showers, rather heavy at times in far north, but otherwise only 1-3 mms rain, winds somewhat stronger especially northern counties, from WSW at 15-30 mph ... lows 6-8 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud once the morning showers depart, and somewhat warmer in a southwest wind of 15-30 mph ... coastal drizzle or fog south and west with this fog becoming thick during afternoon and evening ... highs 14 to 18 C northwest to southeast.

WEDNESDAY ... Aside from coastal fog and drizzle mostly within a few kms of outer south, west and north coasts, the day should steadily improve with warmer air arriving and winds abating especially inland south ... lows around 10 C and highs around 19 C inland.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY ... Sunny days and clear nights inland, some low cloud and fog possible near coasts but only weak sea breezes ... warm, highs reaching 19-23 C inland and west ... morning lows around 8 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY ... Little change although a northeast breeze will develop and cause sea breezes to cool some areas near the east coast and north Ulster. So, remaining sunny and quite warm in most places, but possibly rather hazy and even foggy near east coast. Highs generally 18-22 C but could be held down to 14-17 C near east coast.

MONDAY ... There may be an interruption in the warm, dry spell according to some guidance, as stronger northeast winds develop and push the warmer air back into the southwest counties. The rest of the country could then become cooler with variable cloud. It's still a week off and this indication could fade out of the forecast with any luck. The further outlook would at this point be a return to more seasonable but generally dry weather in a slack northerly flow with small weak features giving a constant variety of wind directions and setting up a few isolated showers.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Sunday (29th) was another hot, dry day across the southwest, Texas, Oklahoma and most of Kansas. Low pressure moving into Wyoming has spread a lot of cloud into states further north, and rain will break out today. A few severe storms are expected in Nebraska and Kansas. Further east, most places hot and humid (28-32 C), with a cluster of heavy storms moving through the lower Great Lakes, some wind damage earlier in southern Michigan. A somewhat cooler air mass covers the upper Great Lakes and most of central Canada (highs 20-24 C in this one).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Hazy sunshine with a high near 18 C, but it became cloudy and rather chilly this evening with a weak front moving southwest and a few showers on radar just to the east of here now.

M.T. Cranium · 31-05-2011 7:18am

Tuesday, 31 May, 2011
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TODAY ... A few morning showers mainly in western counties, then variable cloud, a bit warmer, with moderate SW winds. Connacht may see some light rain late afternoon and evening. Highs 14 to 17 C from north to south. About 2 to 5 mms of rain in some western counties, trace to 2 mms east. Sunshine about 5-7 hours on average, but dimmed by higher cloud.

TONIGHT ... Showers mainly north, drizzle near west coast and some fog developing, milder than previous nights, lows 7-10 C. Moderate SW winds.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with hazy sunshine at times, although low cloud, fog and drizzle may be more prevalent near west coast and outer south coast. Moderate SW winds, highs 15-19 C from north to south.

THURSDAY, FRIDAY ... Most places sunny and warm, with light winds. Some coastal areas cooler with sea breezes and local fog banks mostly offshore but could drift inland on outer coasts. Highs generally 19-23 C, warmest inland west and south, but a few places near 15 C due to sea breezes. Morning lows each day 7-10 C.

SATURDAY ... Continuing partly cloudy to sunny and warm in west and south, but north and east, at least near coasts, will become a bit cooler due to a stronger northeast breeze 10-20 mph. This may also bring some low cloud and fog inland. But otherwise, many places especially in the west and south should reach 20-23 C again, with 15-19 C north and east.

SUNDAY-MONDAY ... Slight changes will develop as the northeast breeze continues but with somewhat cooler air mixing in, but even so, many places in the west and south should remain dry, see at least some sunshine, and reach highs of 17-21 C. The north and east will see more extensive marine layer or sea breeze cooling with local fog and low cloud near the coasts, in particular north of Dublin and in north Ulster. This will hold temperatures down to about 14-17 C there. A few showers may develop in the north later Monday too.

OUTLOOK ... Showery in the north but remaining generally dry central and south next week, temperatures returning to more seasonable values almost everywhere, with highs 15-18 C. Those interested in the following weekend (11-12 June), keep your fingers crossed, the models really have no strong signals but have from time to time been suggesting a cooler northerly flow. This may be only a subtle change in a generally dry pattern though.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Monday (which was Memorial Day in the U.S.) had widespread heat and humidity central and eastern states, with a cold front slicing through the eastern Dakotas and central Nebraska bringing some tornadic thunderstorms -- damage reports are not too severe so far. Heavy rain has moved into Manitoba from North Dakota, and will spread into Minnesota and northwestern Ontario today. Further west, it has been rather cool and cloudy in many places except that the desert southwest remains rather hot and dry.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy with a few morning showers, sunny intervals Monday afternoon, cool ... highs near 15 C.

M.T. Cranium · 01-06-2011 6:58am

Wednesday, 1 June, 2011
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Hey, I've been at this two years now, who's more surprised, the readers or the writer? Anyway, thanks for looking in and many kind messages.

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine developing across the south, more cloud north although with some breaks developing, just a few lingering showers or patches of drizzle mostly near the outer west coast. Warmer, highs 15-17 C north and 18-20 C south. Winds SW 20-30 mph.

TONIGHT ... Clearing further but extensive mist or low cloud north, fog patches inland (but sunrise is so early now, most won't see the fog) ... lows 10-12 C north, 7-10 C south.

THURSDAY ... Except for some low cloud or fog near outer coasts, warm sunshine in many places and highs 21-24 C away from cooling sea breezes that will be generally quite weak, although capable of dropping temperatures to about 15-17 C.

FRIDAY ... Little change, after a clear night with mist or fog patches in a few spots, lows near 7 C, sunshine, light winds and quite warm away from the east coast in particular due to a slight east wind setting in ... highs 21-24 C except 15-17 C near east and north coast, outer south coast.

SATURDAY ... Turning cooler in Ulster, and possibly north Leinster, due to a weak "back-door" cold front from the northeast and a stronger sea breeze that may also cool Dublin and coastal Wicklow. Cloudy at times with drizzle in these counties, highs 14-16 C. Otherwise, most other parts should remain rather warm, partly cloudy, north to northeast winds 10-20 mph and highs of about 17-21 C warmest in the southwest.

SUNDAY ... Current thinking (of mine) is that the Saturday cooling trend will fizzle out and await a second push of cooler air later Monday, so that Sunday may actually see a slight rebound in temperatures where it turned cooler on Saturday, and otherwise should stay about the same as Saturday further south. So, this would imply cloudy with sunny intervals north, highs 16-19 C and partly cloudy to sunny south, highs 17-21 C. (Morning lows 8-10 C)

MONDAY ... Once again, cooler air will try to push the warm air away and will begin to make further inroads, likely about as far south as Galway to Wicklow allowing areas further southwest to remain rather warm. The northern half to two-thirds of Ireland would then become cloudy with highs near 15 C while the southwest stays partly cloudy with highs 17-20 C. (Morning lows 8-10 C)

Some showers are likely by later Monday and into Monday night especially for Ulster where it could rain fairly steadily at times.

TUESDAY ... Showery and much cooler, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C. Winds northerly 15-30 mph.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat unsettled mid-week, showery at times, some sunny breaks developing again, a slow return to higher teens for daily highs, and a slight chance of hitting around 20 C briefly before a second cooler spell develops late in the week. This "heat wave" summer being advertised in some quarters may have a brief preview this week but the main performance may be quite delayed from what I can see because of the retrograde nature of this strong high (retrograde = moving west = north winds setting in).

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The very active front from Monday edged into the Great Lakes region and became less active although still strong enough to set off some marginally severe storms in the Lake Michigan region. Rain moved through Manitoba into northern Ontario followed by strong northwest winds. The plains states got into a refreshingly cooler air mass with highs near 24 C but most of the eastern third of the U.S. baked in record heat near 35 C for DC and 30 C in NYC. The west remains cloudy and cool with outbreaks of light rain, at least north of the deserts which are almost always hot and dry at this time of year.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny intervals this morning, showers at times since then, rather cool again, highs near 16 C. This May has averaged about a degree below normal here.

M.T. Cranium · 01-06-2011 8:51pm

UPDATE _ Wednesday, 8:50 p.m.
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The most recent model output continues to change details for the weekend. There now appears to be somewhat greater chance of showers in Ulster on Sunday and a return to the idea of a progressive cooling trend after Saturday. Monday at present is looking a couple of degrees cooler than previously forecast and showery in most northern and eastern counties.

As I expect these details to continue to change, I would say have a look at the morning forecast to see how the models are updating this situation. I still think the general trend will be more of a dramatic change in the north and east than in the west and south, but all regions will see a decline in temperature from Friday to Monday.

Also being featured on the current models would be a showery and cool period mid-week of next week, and a suggestion that the following weekend may warm up slightly from that with variable cloud and chance of showers in a southeast to east wind flow now.

M.T. Cranium · 02-06-2011 6:39am

Thursday, 2 June, 2011
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TODAY ... Morning mist or low cloud, sea fog, but gradually clearing in most places to give spells of hazy sunshine and very warm temperatures, highs 21 to 24 C well inland and 18-21 C closer to coasts, 15-17 C on some outer coastal peninsulas where it may stay foggy. Very light winds also. In these situations, some cloud banks can persist where trapped between hills, so your chance of sunshine inland is probably about 70%, with 9 to 12 hours of sunshine fairly common.

TONIGHT ... Clear and mild at first, becoming misty or foggy in some places with banks of sea fog drifting some distance inland in west coastal and north coastal districts. Lows 9-12 C.

FRIDAY ... Almost a repeat performance of today but with more sea fog and low cloud appearing near the east coast and a better chance of warm sunshine close to the west coast especially in the southwest. For places inland the weather will be very similar, and highs will reach 22-25 C in some places. Highs of 16-19 C closer to the coast, with slight northeast winds.

SATURDAY ... Continuing sunny and rather warm in the southwest with highs of 19-21 C there. Partly cloudy and turning a bit cooler in most other regions with some low cloud in coastal Ulster and possibly eastern Leinster at least from Dublin north. Winds increasing to NE 15-25 mph. Highs away from the warmer southwest will be 15-19 C.

SATURDAY NIGHT ... Partly cloudy and reasonably mild, lows 7-9 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud but remaining dry except for some light showers in Ulster and drizzle or fog near north and east coasts. A little cooler again, but still pleasant in parts of the south and west. Highs 16-18 C there, and closer to 14-15 C north and east. Winds northeast 15-25 mph

MONDAY ... Cloudy with some showers developing especially in Connacht but in isolated form elsewhere too. Winds backing around to southeast 10-20 mph, lows of 6-8 C and highs of 14-17 C.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... A cool, showery interlude with some dry intervals too and a northerly flow although winds at the surface may be more variable. Highs only 13-15 C and rather cold nights 4-7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Continued rather cool, but mostly dry. Highs 14-17 C.

At present, beyond the next 2-3 days, no signs of unusual warmth and by mid-month despite this upcoming spell, most of Ireland may be running close to average for June.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... On Wednesday, a line of severe storms hit parts of New England with some weak tornado activity reported. Kansas and Colorado also had some severe storms. Otherwise, hot and dry in the south, pleasantly warm and dry from plains states to Great Lakes, and cloudy and cool in the far west.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Some sunny intervals, some long cloudy periods, thunder during the afternoon although the rain from that storm missed my location. Light rain all evening. Chilly, highs only about 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 03-06-2011 6:39am

Friday, 3 June, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly sunny and very warm, hazy but foggy near some east and north facing coasts. Light northeast winds, except 10-15 mph near east coast. Highs generally 21-25 C but 16-19 C close to the east coast and outer north coast. For the Dublin region, it should be a sunny day in most places but don't be surprised if you find fog drifting inland a few city blocks from the seafront, and there it could be a lot cooler (16 C) than in most of the city (20-22 C). The warmest places in Ireland today are likely to be the inland south, west and while there could be fog banks over the Atlantic too, these might be held offshore by the weak easterly winds. One or two places on the outer south coast could also see fog.

TONIGHT ... Generally clear but hazy, then becoming misty or foggy especially in north and east. Lows about 8 to 11 C.

SATURDAY ... With increasing northeast breezes 15-25 mph, much of Ulster and north Leinster will see lower temperatures and some low cloud or fog, with drizzle near coasts. Highs will reach 15-18 C there. Further south and west, it will only turn slightly cooler in a mixture of cloud and sunshine, with highs 18-21.

By late Saturday, some steady rain is possible in Ulster moving down from western Scotland.

SATURDAY NIGHT ... Cloudy with a few outbreaks of light rain mostly in northern counties, moderate northeast winds, lows near 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud with some showers or outbreaks of rain spreading mainly down the west coast from Connacht towards west Munster. Winds easterly 10-20 mph, although stronger at times near coasts, but some eastern counties may have a few brighter intervals with limited sunshine. Highs about 14-16 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with outbreaks of light rain mostly in the western counties, winds east 10-20 mph, lows near 7 C and highs 14-16 C.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy, periods of rain, possibly becoming rather heavy at times, as winds remain east 15-25 mph, lows near 7 C and highs only 12-15 C. It may be as cold as 10 C daytime in parts of Ulster and over in northern Scotland there could be snow on hills in this modified arctic flow coming down from the north.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This wet, chilly pattern may hang around but the longer it does, the more likely it becomes that a somewhat milder southeast flow will push in and replace the colder air with an air mass near 15-17 C and this could turn the rain more thundery at times. Eventually this almost stationary low should drift off to the south and allow a gradual improving trend, possibly around next weekend. This would probably allow temperatures to recover slightly. But the following week should see a return to more "mobile" westerly weather patterns and it should reach 17-20 C at times.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Hot and dry in the central states, with a few non-severe storms spreading out from the high plains. Cool and wet in the northwest states and B.C.-Alberta. Seasonably warm and dry in most of the Great Lakes and northeast U.S., with yesterday's strong storms off into eastern Canada.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Rain off and on all day, 14-15 C. About 20 mms of rain has fallen so far.

M.T. Cranium · 04-06-2011 7:42am

Saturday, 4 June, 2011
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TODAY ... A few sunny intervals mainly in the south but widespread cloud, although continuing rather warm inland, west and south coasts. Highs about 17-21 C with winds NNE 10-20 mph in this half of the country. From north Connacht through all of Ulster and around to northeast Leinster, noticeably cooler than yesterday with extensive low cloud, sea fog and drizzle near coasts. Highs 12-16 C in this zone. Winds NE 15-25 mph, quite chilly near outer coasts where fog could be dense at times. Dublin may be somewhat transitional with a mild start lasting to about mid-day with the sea breeze making larger inroads then the air mass change delivering the more permanent change, so would look for about 17-18 C mid-day as the high.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, drizzle may turn to steady light rain in some parts of Ulster and Leinster, also near the northwest coast, but could stay dry in some southern districts, lows 6-9 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy, outbreaks of light rain (2-5 mms) likely to cover the eastern half of the country at times, but more isolated showers further west with some brighter intervals, winds rather variable as weak lows form off the northwest and southeast coasts. Highs about 15 C on average, could be held down to 12 C in coastal fog but could rise to 17 C in a few brighter areas inland south and west.

MONDAY ... After a rather chilly overnight low of 5-7 C in cloud and drizzle, the day will be mostly cloudy but could see a few brighter intervals, as the northern low gradually expands to dominate with showers and periods of light rain developing in a generally northwest flow off the Atlantic, but still rather variable winds, highs 13-16 C.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Showery, some prolonged periods of rain in north, light winds near drifting low moving inland north, stalling and then drifting back to northeast. This will promote light westerly winds across south where it could be more variable, leading to showers becoming thundery in a few places. Quite chilly especially in the north, highs only 10-13 C there, about 13 to 15 C south. Morning lows around 5-7 C unless there is any extensive clearing in one or two spots, then it could be near ground frost (air temp about 2 C) in those locations.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY ... This period will see the extensive cloud shield and moisture from the slow-moving disturbance gradually breaking up so while the changes from day to day will be slight, a very slow improvement is probable and temperatures should recover somewhat just because of the increased brightness and some sunshine, to reach about 15-17 C by the weekend. The average minimum is likely to be 5-8 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Further showers or rain are suggested around Monday 13th as warmer air pushes back in, then a somewhat warmer week is likely with potential for temperatures to return to the 20-22 C range eventually. The pattern looks capable of transitioning to near heat wave conditions by about the 20th or so.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Hot and dry air mass over the central and southern plains but extensive although non-severe showers and storms in the high plains. Further west, hot and dry in parts of the southwest, but unusually cool and showery in central and northern California. The northwest states and B.C. have cleared out with fairly warm temperatures developing. Inland western Canada and northern plains extensive rain and mountain snow. Great Lakes, northeast warm and dry.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday 3rd was cloudy to start, partly cloudy by early afternoon and clear by evening, with a high of about 18 C.

lucernarian · 04-06-2011 11:39pm

I just want to add that the NAE and GFS models are both pointing to some heavy and prolonged falls of rain throughout tomorrow (Sunday) in Ulster and north Leinster and also for the first part of Monday to a lesser extent. The Met Office has also issued a "Be aware" warning for NI with predictions of 1 to 2 inches of rain and the warning is valid for over 24 hours. The warning was only issued this evening.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_warnings.html

The NAE model has been flagging this throughout today and GFS has given similar support at a slightly later stage.

The pressure charts look remarkably innocuous though on first glance. Perhaps there's a small convergence zone at play here though the Met Office charts haven't specifically marked this.

M.T. Cranium · 05-06-2011 6:41am

Sunday, 5 June, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy with outbreaks of light rain mostly in north and east, turning to a steady downpour in eastern Ulster and some parts of north Leinster. Amounts 10-20 mms there, 5-10 mms west Ulster, north Connacht and some other parts of Leinster, and trace to 5 mms in counties from Galway south to include most of Munster and south Leinster. A few brighter intervals in the south later could allow highs to reach 16-17 C but in most other places, only 12-14 C. Winds rather light from a generally northwest direction trending more to north or northeast in coastal Leinster. Some mist or fog near coasts especially northwest and northeast counties.

TONIGHT ... Further 5-15 mms rain in east Ulster, trending to dry elsewhere and chilly in a northwest flow 10-20 mph, lows 6-8 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, a few more showers developing mostly in Connacht and west Ulster, then spreading late in the day further south. Some bursts of heavier rain across the north and potential for 10-20 mms. Highs will range from 12 C north to 17 C south coast.

Despite the rain in the forecast, we should note that some southern districts could remain largely dry for most of the remainder of the weekend and so I would not be too pessimistic about conditions for outdoor events in some of these counties (this would apply mainly to Munster).

TUESDAY ... Outbreaks of moderate or heavy rain in northern half of Ireland, light to moderate showers some thundery in southern counties, lows near 6 C and highs near 15 C (12 C north).

WEDNESDAY ... Further heavy showers, rather chilly, and possible thundershowers, then variable cloud with lows near 5 C and highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY ... The unsettled weather will continue but with a slight improving trend that will allow temperatures to drift upward to near normal values. Highs then should climb from about 15 C to near 20 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Continuing a slow warming trend all of the following week with some showery intervals but more sunshine than this coming week.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Saturday was hot and dry in most central states, a few thunderstorms mostly brief and non-severe, but a band of heavy storms moving through the Ohio valley towards Washington DC overnight and spreading further north on Sunday. Rather showery in California and sunny further north with warmer temperatures.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny, high of about 23 C on Saturday.

M.T. Cranium · 05-06-2011 8:31pm

UPDATE _ Sunday, 8:30 p.m.
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The south has fared considerably better than the north today, and this trend will continue. One slow-moving upper-level disturbance is presently located over Ulster and will drift off towards Scotland on Monday. A second very chilly upper level low that is phasing with surface low pressure near Iceland today will drift southeast and arrive over Donegal Bay late Monday night, taking most of Tuesday and Wednesday to cross the north. While today's rain gradually tapers off to drizzle across the north tonight and a few breaks appear in the cloud cover mid-day Monday, this second disturbance will bring heavy rain, very chilly temperatures and even the risk of sleet or snow at higher elevations. Some of this unsettled weather will spread into central and parts of southern counties by Tuesday, but Donegal, Mayo and nearby counties appear likely to get the worst of it. Temperatures may be held as low as 5-8 C at times on Tuesday, and hills above 500m have the risk of snow or sleet with temperatures of 2-4 C. There may be some risks to safety of livestock on higher terrain, and it would definitely not be a good time to be camping or climbing with conditions no better than mid-January on average. The worst of this second round will last from early Tuesday to early Thursday.

As always, the impacts on Dublin and most of the south will be much less dramatic but I think that everyone will feel the chill at some point as this unusual weather pattern comes and goes. The eventual end game for this slow moving storm seems to be a leisurely return to base as the low starts to head north and then west later in the week. This will keep Ireland in a rather chilly westerly flow but as the clouds lift and break somewhat, temperatures should struggle back to the mid-teens.

More details in the morning forecast.

M.T. Cranium · 06-06-2011 6:38am

Monday, 6 June, 2011
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TODAY ... Rain or drizzle will edge slowly east to cover most of the western third of the country, but further east, sunny intervals with extensive cloud developing around mid-day. Highs only 9-12 C west, 13-15 C east. The western rainfall amounts by evening should be about 5 mms.

TONIGHT ... Very chilly with rain, drizzle and fog covering most of the north and west, showers developing in the southeast. Rainfall amounts 10-15 mms except 2-5 mms southeast. Lows reaching 5 C and winds rather light in the north, W-NW 15-25 mph across the south. Conditions from tonight through Thursday will resemble almost wintry weather, it could become uncomfortable or even dangerous for those exposed to the elements for long intervals.

TUESDAY ... Rain and unseasonably cold for most, with the risk of sleet or snow developing on northern hills especially above 500m. Highs 8-10 C at low elevations and 4-7 C at higher elevations. The south will have variable cloud and frequent showers with some hail and thunder, with westerly winds 10-20 mph, highs 12-15 C.

Rainfall amounts of 20-30 mms possible in most areas but more variable in the south where some places could escape with only 5 mms or so.

WEDNESDAY ... The cold rain with high elevation sleet will slowly push east becoming more confined to eastern Ulster but it will remain showery in the wake of the steady rain, and showers or thundershowers in the south. Morning lows of 3-7 C and afternoon highs of 8-13 C will be close to record low values. A further 10-30 mms of rain possible.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Continued very cool and unsettled ... rainfall will become showery in all regions, with hail and thunder quite frequent in the showers. Lows 3-7 C and highs 12-15 C. Winds generally WNW 15-30 mph.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... The very gradual improvement should continue, but temperatures will struggle to reach 16 C by Sunday. Showers should become less frequent at least. Rain then warmer by Monday, and turning quite warm early in the week, then slightly cooler again mid-week.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The basic theme is that temperatures are not too far from normal values in most regions. The heat in the central plains has lost some of its edge, and air masses further north are only a bit cooler now. The heaviest thunderstorms on offer at present are in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Scattered showers are widespread in California and western Nevada, but it remains sunny and warm further north on the west coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... We enjoyed a sunny, rather warm Sunday with highs near 22 C. Monday is expected to see increasing cloud and similar temperatures, then rain on Tuesday.

M.T. Cranium · 07-06-2011 7:13am

Tuesday, 7 June, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and unseasonably cool with periods of rain, as well as some hail showers that could become thundery in southern counties. Rather light winds (due to proximity of low) in northern counties, but breezy to windy at times further south, WNW 20-35 mph, adding more chill. Highs may reach 10-13 C especially where skies break briefly, but at other times temperatures could be in the 7-9 C range, very close to record low values for daytime at this time of year. Rainfalls 10-30 mms, rather variable due to showery nature of the rain, probably heavier in west than east generally.

TONIGHT ... Rain continuing, with 10-20 mms further accumulations, very cool with lows 3-7 C. A band of sleety showers is likely to push through Donegal into parts of north Connacht and west Ulster and snow could accumulate on higher ground. Further south, the showers may become rather light after midnight with widespread fog or mist.

WEDNESDAY ... Further rain that may mix with sleet or snow over higher parts of the north, while the central and southern counties see intermittent showers with some hail and thunder, gusty WNW winds 20-35 mph, and highs that will only reach 7-9 C in north and 10-13 C south. Rainfalls of 10-20 mms possible.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY ... Little change except that the northern counties will get out of the steady rain and into the same showery conditions that had prevailed earlier in the south. Lows near 4 C and highs near 13 C, with gusty W-NW winds 20-40 mph. There may be some very heavy hail showers especially in western counties.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Saturday may give a slight improvement with partly cloudy skies and highs 15-16 C, then rain is likely to push in by early Sunday from the southwest as part of a general warming trend. The following week should be closer to mid-June average temperatures, reaching 17-20 C at times.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The heaviest storms overnight will probably be in Montana and North Dakota, but later today North Dakota and Minnesota will be under a widespread severe storm alert. Heavy rain will spread further north to drench parts of the Canadian prairies. Showers will extend back across the Rockies to the B.C. and Washington coasts. The southwest has cleared up and turned warmer, with the heat rebuilding in the south central states. The east coast will see rather cool temperatures north of about PHL and warm but humid weather further south.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday was another sunny day with just a slight increase in cloud to sunset, but it will cloud over tonight here and become showery on Tuesday. The high Monday was 24 C.

M.T. Cranium · 08-06-2011 6:41am

Wednesday, 8 June, 2011
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Three more days of this cool, unsettled weather, then a slight break on Saturday before more rain on Sunday ... but beyond that the outlook improves as the jet stream lifts away from Ireland during next week, which should allow temperatures to return to normal mid-June values.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with widespread showers developing, heaviest across central and eastern counties. Once again, some thunder will accompany hail in these showers. The rain may be somewhat lighter in parts of the south, but amounts will generally be 5-15 mms today. There is a slight chance of sleet or snow falling on highest elevations especially in Ulster and Connacht. Winds generally NW 15-30 mph but 20-45 mph in exposed locations from about Galway Bay south and east to about Wexford. Highs will reach 12-15 C for most but could be held to 10 C in the north.

TONIGHT ... Further showers, but these becoming lighter and less frequent, with mist or fog developing, very cool with lows 3-7 C. Slight ground frost could develop any place that skies clear for an hour or more. Average rainfalls about 3-5 mms.

THURSDAY ... Continued breezy to windy and very cool for time of year, with widespread hail- and thunder- showers. Winds generally WNW 20-40 mph, rainfalls 5-10 mms. Highs 12-14 C with potential for lower mid-day temperatures near strong showers. (the air aloft will be exceptionally cool)

FRIDAY ... Little change from Thursday, with lows near 4 C and highs near 13 or 14 C, showers with some hail, breezy.

SATURDAY ... Some dry intervals developing at least away from the north which may remain cloudy and drizzly. Some sunshine likely for Munster and south Leinster. Morning lows could be in the 2-6 C range and highs about 14 to 16 C except 11-13 C north.

SUNDAY ... Rain and fog developing, strong southeast winds veering more to southwest. Lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

OUTLOOK ... Monday will be cool and showery, but the rest of the week may bring some improving weather with the average high likely to be 17 to 19 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... On Tuesday, some unusual heat moved north into Minnesota and Wisconsin with the "twin cities" over 100 F which is rare this early in summer. A weak cold front brought scattered thunderstorms to North Dakota and one or two of these became severe. Widespread heavy rains across the northern parts of ND and Montana into the Canadian southern prairies, and showers into southern B.C. ... mainly dry and hot or at least very warm in most other eastern and southern states. Today the cold front will move rapidly through Minnesota into Wisconsin and Iowa where some severe storms are possible.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, isolated showers but no accumulation at my location, sunny breaks lasting a few minutes but clearing by evening, highs around 17 C in a slight northerly flow.

M.T. Cranium · 09-06-2011 7:43am

Thursday, 9 June, 2011
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TODAY ... Continued breezy and very cool for time of year, some dry intervals with brief sunny breaks to start in the east, but cloudy west, with widespread hail- and thunder- showers likely to spread in from the Atlantic fairly soon. Winds generally WNW 15-30 mph, rainfalls 5-10 mms. Highs 12-14 C with potential for lower mid-day temperatures near strong showers. (the air aloft will be exceptionally cool) ... some prolonged showers may merge into periods of rain central counties mid-day.

TONIGHT ... Showers becoming less frequent and some clear intervals, quite chilly, lows 2-5 C, some frost in a few inland locations.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud with hail showers at times, cool, highs near 13 C, rainfalls 5-10 mms.

SATURDAY ... Some dry intervals developing at least away from the north which may remain cloudy and drizzly. A few showers at times near the west coast also. Some sunshine likely for Munster and south Leinster. Morning lows could be in the 2-6 C range and highs about 14 to 16 C except 11-13 C north.

SUNDAY ... Rain and fog developing from early morning, southeast winds 15-30 mph veering more to southwest. Lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C. Potential rainfalls 20-30 mms.

OUTLOOK ... Monday will be cool and showery, but the rest of the week may bring some improving weather with the average high likely to be 17 to 19 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Wednesday brought some severe storms to southern Ontario and states between Michigan and Iowa, as a cold front slowly advanced into very hot and humid air, while further south, highs reached 32-35 C. This front will make gradual progress south today to reach about New York to the Ohio valley, and the air mass replacing it will be considerably cooler. Cool and dry northern plains states, hot and dry southern plains. Variable cloud across the west.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... A rather bland day here on Wednesday, cloud all morning, sunny breaks in the afternoon, cool with highs near 17 C.

M.T. Cranium · 10-06-2011 6:37am

Friday, 10 June, 2011
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The hits just keep on coming ...

TODAY ... Unseasonably cool with showers spreading across the south, some dry intervals north central counties at first, although limited sunshine, then more rain (and possibly sleet at high elevations) spreading into the northwest mid-day and across Ulster by afternoon and evening. Winds relatively moderate (mostly W 15-25 mph) and highs 10-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Some lingering rain or drizzle in the north, dry elsewhere with some breaks in the overcast, lows 3-6 C. Any longer breaks in the cloud could lead to scattered ground frost again.

SATURDAY ... A brief but welcome break from the gloomy weather may coincide with the daylight hours on Saturday, with some sunshine across the southern half of Ireland and at least dry if cloudy conditions further north. Not too windy either, with highs a bit closer to average at 14-16 C.

SATURDAY NIGHT ... Rain spreading in from the southwest, strong E to SE winds developing, 10-20 mms rain, lows near 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Intervals of rain, moderate or heavy, becoming thundery in parts of the southeast, 20-30 mms potential, foggy especially over northern hills, but some brief clearing late in the day southwest ... highs 12-14 C.

MONDAY ... Becoming rather windy in Connacht and west Munster during the morning, WSW veering WNW 30-50 mph, showers moving east through the morning, some clearing later, lows near 6 C and highs 12-14 C.

OUTLOOK ... Slightly milder with highs into the range of 15-17 C but further showers from several frontal systems in a disturbed westerly flow. It may take until past the 20th before we see much of an improvement although there is a faint upward trend now in the temperatures.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Severe storms were widespread in New England and west of Chicago into Iowa, with the hot, humid air now suppressed south of the Great Lakes. Cooler, drier air was slowly pushing south into Ontario and Michigan, and Wisconsin from a sprawling high further north. Widespread cloud and some showers or storms over the Rockies north of about Denver, hot and dry south of there and east into the plains states.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... A rather bland day here on Thursday with cloud, light winds, and a high of about 17 C.

M.T. Cranium · 10-06-2011 7:26pm

UPDATE _ Friday 10th June, 2011 _ 7:30 p.m.
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ALERT issued for evening thunderstorms with hail in the Dublin city region, these likely to pass from west to east across the city now to 8:30 p.m., some locally heavy falls of hail could lead to poor driving conditions.

Tonight, there may be some longer clear intervals in parts of the inland south or central counties, that could allow for moderate to severe frost to develop especially in valleys and lower elevations with flat terrain, so cover up any tender plants in your gardens if you are in a frost-prone location.

As for the weekend outlook, no real changes to report, basically if you have any outdoor plans and can accomplish them on Saturday rather than Sunday, this would be wise because Sunday is basically looking like a "washout" and perhaps the term "shocker" would apply given the date on the calendar. In other words, a heavy rainfall seems unavoidable, followed by rather strong winds overnight into Monday, and no real warming involved. Saturday on the other hand will be a touch warmer than of late, mainly because more sunshine will manage to get through.

Next week at present is not looking much better than this week, although the source of the air masses will be the rather chilly near Atlantic rather than the very chilly far northern Atlantic, so that may produce a slight upturn; however, getting back to normal mid-June values will require some longer dry intervals with a bit of sunshine at least, so would say that one or two days may achieve this, other days may be back to the 12-14 C range.

I am actually beginning to see the advantages of living so far away. :cool: (as in, don't shoot the messenger) ... but cannot say that the weather here is any great improvement, although it has been dry most of the week, rather chilly here since Tuesday.

M.T. Cranium · 11-06-2011 6:45am

Saturday, 11 June, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy with some drizzle or light showers in west coast counties this morning, while the day starts dry with some bright or even sunny intervals elsewhere. Mid-day clouds should become more broken or scattered for a while, although an isolated shower with a bit of hail or thunder could be found in one or two places, before thicker cloud moves back in from the south towards evening. Rain will then follow on the south coast. Winds today should be light and rather variable, and highs will reach 13-16 C, with 1-3 mms rain at most.

TONIGHT ... Periods of rain, foggy, winds rising to ESE 15-30 mph (20-40 mph south and east coast), lows around 7 C. Rainfalls of 10-20 mms across the south, remaining dry in Ulster and northern parts of Connacht and Leinster until near sunrise.

SUNDAY ... Periods of rain continuing, becoming heavy at times, thundery in some parts of the east and south, potential for 20-35 mms and some spot flooding. Rather chilly due to the brisk winds and rain, but temperatures will edge up towards 12-14 C as the rain ends later. Some clearing in west Munster by late afternoon, but rain continuing elsewhere. Winds veering from SE to SW 15-30 mph with some higher gusts likely near fronts. Models are showing a band of heavy rain spreading northeast across almost all parts of the country from morning in the south to late afternoon northeast. This is also when thunder may develop.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... Becoming quite windy especially in Connacht after midnight as winds become W 20-40 mph. Showers ending gradually, lows 6-8 C.

MONDAY ... Windy in the north, cloudy for much of the day with drizzle or light rain persisting for a while, but gradual clearing further south and not as windy, highs reaching 14 C south, 11 C north.

TUESDAY ... Another rather cold morning likely, lows 2-7 C, then partly cloudy, isolated showers, some sunshine and highs of about 14-16 C, so slightly improved over much of the past week. Rain spreading in again from the southwest late in the day.

OUTLOOK ... Showery and rather cool Wednesday to Friday, highs generally 12-14 C. Following that, some indications of a gradual warming trend, but we were speaking of that in May for several weeks before it finally materialized, so ... let's just hope this one is on time.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The hot, humid weather has been pushed a bit further south during the day on Friday but will not be fully removed from the northeast U.S. until after the weekend as a frontal wave now west of Chicago moves east along the front and holds it back for another day or so. Heavy rainfalls are likely with a few severe storms near PHL and DCA. The front is now less active further west but still marks a sharp temperature divide with cooler, dry air in the central and northern plains. Showers are moving east across the Canadian prairies, and the weather on the west coast is cloudy but dry.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was a cloudy day with no rain and a high of about 17 C.

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