Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 6 September, 2011
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TODAY ... Variable cloud with some sunny intervals but also the continuing risk of heavy showers, some with hail and thunder. There is a slight tornadic risk for northern and central counties well inland. Widespread strong wind gusts are expected from WSW at 35-55 mph. Further rainfalls generally only 1-3 mms but could be locally heavier. Highs 15-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few showers or periods of rain, 5-10 mms potential, mild, continuing rather breezy (W 20-40 mph) with lows 9-12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, some sunny breaks, a few more showers, winds backing gradually to SW 20-40 mph, highs 15-17 C. Heavier rain likely by evening especially in north.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers continuing at times in the north, possibly a brighter interval for the south and quite mild or warm, morning lows around 11 C and afternoon highs 17-19 C.

FRIDAY ... Some sunny breaks, rain more likely in west and north, very mild or warm in moderate southerly winds. Lows near 10 C and highs near 20 C away from somewhat cooler coastal fringes.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers turning to periods of rain, winds gusty and southerly, lows near 11 C and highs near 17 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers, a bit cooler in a west to northwest breeze, possibly becoming stormy later, highs near 15 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... A significant risk of stormy weather especially in the north and west, depending on track and intensity of Katia. The models have actually reversed roles in their latest run (00z Tuesday) -- the GFS brings the storm closer than before, although only Donegal would appear to be in line for strong winds on its depiction. Meanwhile, the European model now wants to spin the storm around in the central Atlantic with a developing warm ridge over Ireland and the U.K. -- the GEM and UKMO support the GFS so a weighted consensus still has potential for a significant storm event. I would rate it about a 50-50 proposition at this point. Most of the non-storm "50" would be fair and warm as an alternative. So while the weather forum hard-core will be rooting for a storm, many others will be hoping for the fair and warm, I would guess.


NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Continuing sunny and very warm or hot in much of the western half of North America and extending well north of the Canadian border although eventually cloud and rain are encountered in northern B.C. and the Yukon. Somewhat cooler than average across the Great Lakes region and somewhat further south with rain along a stationary front becoming heavy or torrential closer to Tennessee and Alabama where remnants of Lee are dying slowly. Katia, now a cat-4 hurricane, is moving northwest well to the south of Bermuda (and north of Haiti & Dominican Rep).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny, very warm again on Monday (which was Labour Day here) although with a pleasant cooling sea breeze, about 25 C as a result here, but 30-35 C further inland.

:cool:

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 7 September, 2011
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The trend on almost all guidance for the extratropical remnant low of Katia is slightly towards stronger wind potential in the northwest, as a very intense low is shown within 100-200 miles of Donegal Bay. There is a spread in model solutions, with the UKMO weakest, but the leading models as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) predictions show potential for very strong winds as early as Sunday night (peaking Monday morning in most outlooks). If you live in the northwest and especially if you have any interests in coastal or marine weather, read the Monday forecast and follow our updates.

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brief brighter intervals, outbreaks of rain but more persistent in the far north where 3-5 mms may fall, otherwise, trace to about 2 mms and long dry intervals. Rather cool especially in the westerly breezes of 20-40 mph (sometimes gusting to near 50 mph northwest coast). Highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, mild, outbreaks of light rain or fog, mist, heavier rain possible in far north, 3-5 mms potential there. Lows 11-13 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, more chance of a few sunny breaks in the southeast, probably staying overcast in west and north where rain more likely at times, humid and quite warm with southwest winds 20-40 mph, highs about 20 C inland south to 16 C north.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy southeast, overcast with showers and risk of a thundershower elsewhere in moderate southerly winds 25-40 mph, very mild or warm, humid, lows near 12 C and highs 17-21 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy (S-SW 25-45 mph), mild to warm, frequent showers developing, chance of thunder ... lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, breezy (WSW 20-35 mph), showers, becoming windy in the evening, lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C. Possible storm force SW winds in Atlantic marine areas by evening, spreading to coastal fringes by early Monday morning.

Monday ... For most regions, variable cloud, some showers, some sunny intervals, rather windy (SW 30-50 mph) and quite warm, highs near 21 C inland and 17 C coastal. For the northwest, especially Galway, Mayo and Donegal, potential for gales or storm force winds (SW 45-70 mph) with hurricane force winds possible around Donegal Bay and in marine areas west and northwest of the Mayo-Galway coasts. Clare, Sligo, Roscommon and Leitrim into west Ulster also at risk of some higher gusts. Temperatures steady near 15-16 C.

TUESDAY ... Winds gradually easing and becoming westerly, not as warm, a few showers north, mostly dry further south, highs near 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A settled, dry and possibly rather warm period may follow as high pressure builds in the wake of Katia.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Sunny and hot in most western regions. Warm and dry with northerly winds in Texas making it very tough for fire-fighters to control raging bush and forest fires. Heavy rains southeast and east central states. Katia well southwest of Bermuda creating heavy swells on east coast and tropical storm winds in Bermuda itself. Expect Tropical Depression #14 located north of Guyana to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Maria fairly soon, it has a circulation and winds almost strong enough now.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny, very warm on Tuesday, 27 C locally and well into the 30s further inland.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Wed 7 Sept 2011 _ 8 p.m.
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Just an update on latest guidance on Katia's encounter with northwest Ireland on Monday ... will wait for 0600 morning forecast to issue any revised numbers but the trend is very slightly weaker overall in terms of wind potential on land, about the same for wind over marine regions, and trending towards 0600-0900h Monday for timing of strongest winds in Ireland.

The details remind me of a horse race where some horses are coming on and others falling back. The UKMO has really intensified the most and also seems to have the closest track to Donegal Bay (all guidance continues to keep the centre north of land and eventually into the Faeroes to Shetland region). The GFS has not changed much, the NHC analysis continues with another forward step in their five-day outlook along the original path, the European model looks a touch weaker and further out to sea than before, and the Canadian GEM model is now backing off its intense solution but adding an implausible pause on Monday to make this the only significant model advertising a Tuesday encounter now (and that one fairly similar to the other Monday forecasts). There are a few other models to consider, if I find anything really different on any of them, I will make a note here later -- but in any case my forecast philosophy is to take a weighted average of these main sources. If there's no change by the morning guidance, expect perhaps a 5-10 mph downgrade in the forecast but still the potential for minor wind damage in coastal regions, high surf, and unusually high tides.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Maria has formed as expected and is heading towards the Virgin Islands, northern Puerto Rico and later the Bahamas as a slowly intensifying storm of marginal hurricane strength, according to the NHC and most of the model guidance.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 8 September, 2011
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The forecast remains similar with guidance converging on a very stormy period late Sunday night into Monday for the north and west in particular.

TODAY ... Variable cloud, more chance of a few sunny breaks by mid-day and afternoon in the southeast, probably staying overcast in west and north where light rain more likely at times, 2-4 mms on average there, humid and quite warm with southwest winds 15-30 mph, highs about 19 C inland south to 16 C close to north and west coasts.

TONIGHT ... Fog or mist patches, very mild, further outbreaks of light rain in a southerly breeze, lows near 12 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy southeast, overcast with showers and risk of a thundershower elsewhere in moderate southerly winds 25-40 mph, very mild or warm, humid, lows near 12 C and highs 17-21 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy (S-SW 25-45 mph), mild to warm, frequent showers developing, chance of thunder ... lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, breezy (WSW 20-35 mph), showers, becoming windy in the evening, lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C. Possible storm force SW winds in Atlantic marine areas by evening, spreading to coastal fringes by early Monday morning.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY ... For most regions, variable cloud, some showers, some sunny intervals in the south on Monday, rather windy (SW 30-50 mph) and quite warm, highs near 20 C inland and 17 C coastal. For the northwest, especially Galway, Mayo and Donegal, potential for gales or storm force winds (SW 45-70 mph) with hurricane force winds possible around Donegal Bay and in marine areas west and northwest of the Mayo-Galway coasts. Clare, Sligo, Roscommon and Leitrim into west Ulster also at risk of some higher gusts. Temperatures steady near 15-16 C. Frequent heavy or squally showers in the north and west, isolated showers more the rule in the southeast. All of the above due to the close passage of extratropical Hurricane Katia which should be near Donegal Bay around 0600-0900h Monday. Very large swells and possible minor storm surges into Galway Bay and other west-facing harbours and bays. Waves in marine areas running 8 to 12 metres.

TUESDAY ... Winds gradually easing and becoming westerly, not as warm, a few showers, highs near 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Although it may take a few days to clear away the remnant northerly flow and a few showers in eastern counties, a settled, dry and possibly rather warm period may follow around the following weekend as high pressure builds in the wake of Katia.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Hot, sunny weather covers the western half except in northern districts -- continued showers or heavy rain in the east and southeast. Besides Katia, now west of Bermuda, we are now dealing with Tropical Storms Maria and Nate. Maria is heading for the Virgin Islands and Nate is gearing up for a run north in the Gulf of Mexico.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny, hot on Wednesday, high near 28 C.

See the Boards "Katia" and "potential storm Monday 12th" threads for further information and discussions.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Thursday, 8 September, 2011 _ 7:45 pm
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ADVANCE ALERT for SEVERE STORM conditions arriving after midnight Sunday into early Monday and lasting through most of Monday as the extratropical low (Katia) may pass dangerously close to Ireland on a track east-north-eastward through Donegal Bay. As available guidance begins to converge on a more intense solution closer to land, the forecast could potentially shift to include severe wind gusts of 80-100 mph (or 70-90 knots, or 130-160 km/hr) affecting not only the northwest coast where the strongest gusts could be expected in any case, but large parts of the rest of the country with the least severe conditions in valleys of the inland southeast. This begins to expand the potential damaging wind threat to most of the more populated regions and larger cities in Ireland. There is also an increasing risk of battering waves and storm surge given the timing of the storm at the full moon (12 Sept). We hope that future guidance will clarify this developing and dangerous situation timed for 0100 to 1500h Monday, but the trend today is ominously towards more severe conditions.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 9 September, 2011
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ADVANCE ALERT for SEVERE STORM conditions arriving shortly after midnight Sunday into early Monday and lasting through most of Monday as the extratropical low (Katia) may pass dangerously close to Ireland on a track east-north-eastward through Donegal Bay. The current forecast indicates severe wind gusts of 70-100 mph (or 60-90 knots, or 110-160 km/hr) affecting not only the northwest coast where the strongest gusts could be expected in any case, but large parts of the rest of the country with the least severe conditions in valleys of the inland southeast. We are currently expecting gusts to about 65 knots (75-80 mph or 125 km/hr) in and around Dublin and 55 knots (about 65 mph or 90 km/hr in Cork). See forecasts for details including timing. We caution that this forecast represents the most probable outcome from current guidance but there are chances (perhaps 1 in 3) that the storm will be less intense, or (very unlikely) more intense than this forecast represents.

TODAY ... Variable cloud, some hazy sunshine, brief showers at first, turning a bit heavier in the west later, quite warm in southerly breezes 15-30 mph, highs 17-21 C with the warmest readings inland south to central. Some risk of a thundershower in the inland west by late afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Showers and a few thundershowers developing in moderate southeast to south winds 20-35 mph, very mild, close ... lows 13-15 C.

SATURDAY ... Showery, breezy to windy at times, a few sunny intervals in the mix, warm but turning slightly cooler in the west, highs 16-18 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, breezy with showers at first, a few hours of sunshine here and there, warm again with lows near 12 C and highs near 19 or 20 C except 15-17 C in northwest where rain more persistent.

Gale and then storm force southwest winds will likely arrive during the evening on the west coast and spread east overnight. Heavy squally showers with thunder will race east ahead of the main band of stormy winds but may produce locally severe gusts themselves. Generally speaking winds will start out SSW 30-50 mph and end up WSW 50-80 mph in most places, except where noted as potentially more severe.

Sunday night into Monday ... storm to hurricane force wind gusts developing with potential for gusts to 100 mph in coastal regions north of the Shannon estuary, and in some exposed areas further inland. Less severe wind gusts to 70 or 80 mph will rapidly spread across all other regions before dawn Monday, except closer to 50 mph in more sheltered parts of the inland southeast, with a few squally showers or thunderstorms south, squally outbreaks of thundery rain north and central. Rain potential 5-20 mms heaviest in Connacht and Ulster. Risk of tornadic wind streaks to be updated closer to event. Temperatures steady near 15 C north to 18 C south, briefly rising to near 20 C morning south and east, then dropping off gradually during Monday to 14-16 C in westerly gales or storm force winds.

These severe winds could produce local damage to trees, roofs and some poorly secured buildings and objects. Driving may become very dangerous especially in the west. The period of strongest winds will last about 9-12 hours and therefore may last from after midnight to mid-day before slight easing in the west, and from 0400 to mid-afternoon in the east.

There is a considerable risk of coastal flooding in the west from tidal surges or very high tides, battering waves associated with 10-15 metre waves in the open Atlantic. Galway Bay and the Shannon estuary, as well as parts of Donegal Bay, could see severe local flooding, as well as some harbours of smaller extent. South coast should be less affected and east coast will be largely spared these effects.

Later Monday, some sunshine likely across the south in strong westerly winds, cloudy with rain or drizzle blowing sideways at times in the north. Severe winds will last well into Monday evening in Donegal and north Ulster.

The situation is being continuously monitored and updates will be issued whenever warranted.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Remaining breezy to windy at times, cool, some showers or longer periods of drizzle or rain in north, some sunshine at times south and east, winds generally 30-50 mph, highs near 15 C, overnight lows near 7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Warming up gradually later in the week, some showers with a weaker system on Thursday, potential for some longer sunny intervals by the weekend with much calmer winds indicated.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Sunny, hot across the west again. Rain from Lee's remnant low beginning to turn more to patchy drizzle now in east central states. Katia now off to southeast of Cape Cod heading rapidly east. Nate winding up in southern Gulf to become a hurricane threatening eastern Mexico by Monday-Tuesday. Maria maintaining minimal tropical storm status east of Guadeloupe heading for the Virgin Islands. This storm is expected to become a hurricane by mid-week north of the Bahamas and may head for Newfoundland and then Iceland allowing high pressure to remain over Ireland in about ten days' time.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny, hot on Thursday, highs near 29 C. Record highs further inland near 35 C.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Friday, 9 Sept 2011 _ 8:30 p.m.
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Slight changes in the guidance today for the storm event on Monday, but probably not enough change to revise wording in the advance alert, except to say that potential peak gusts around Dublin now look closer to 55-60 knots than 65 knots. Most of the other estimates remain valid and there are the usual ups and downs in model depictions that, taken as a composite, continue to indicate potential for damaging wind gusts in coastal regions north of Clare around to Donegal and into parts of Northern Ireland.

There has also been a trend towards a later arrival by a few hours so that the strongest winds now seem likely between 0600 and 1500h on the west and northwest coasts. Since the southerly winds ahead of the storm may prove equally strong for locations in the east and south, the timing issues have not changed there.

In any case, I place more importance at this point on waiting for the 00z model runs that will have absorbed data from the acceleration phase of Katia as the storm (still a cat-1 hurricane) moves rapidly east-north-east to the south of Newfoundland overnight.

"Storm surge" issues on the west coast may be more accurately described as concerns about local flooding and overtopping of seawalls, but apparently most locations have their astronomical low tides around mid-day on Monday about when the strongest winds sweep through Galway, Mayo and Donegal. The situation should play out with 0.5 metre rises in the early morning high tides, an almost complete absence of low tides as water is driven into the west coast mid-day, then a slight peak again 0.5 metres above normal levels in the late afternoon. The northeast part of Donegal Bay's coastline could see the highest tidal anomalies, followed by Westport area and Galway where I'm told the south shoreline is more prone to flooding problems.

A major forecast update can be expected around 0600h Saturday.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 10 September, 2011
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ALERT for strong winds reaching storm force at times in Connacht and west Ulster, late Sunday into mid-day Monday, gusts to 75 knots on land and possibly higher over nearby Atlantic marine areas ... gale to storm force gusts in other parts of Ireland Sunday night into Monday morning may reach 55 knots in exposed locations ... also some squally showers or thunderstorms during the event ... although most recent guidance seems to edge the track of Katia slightly further north, the evolution remains uncertain and "too close to call" given the indicated wind speeds across Donegal Bay.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, with a few brief sunny or brighter intervals, sporadic showers and one or two heavier thunderstorms but rainfalls quite variable place to place (3-15 mms) ... still rather warm with highs near 18 C. Winds veering more to south then southwest, 20-40 mph except 30-50 mph in coastal northwest.

TONIGHT ... Breezy, mild, showers or a few brief thundershowers, winds continuing SW 20-40 mph, lows near 13 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy, becoming windy later in the afternoon, intervals of cloud and sunshine, rather warm in south where highs 17-19 C, more overcast in north with highs 14-17 C. Winds south to southwest 15-30 mph at first, rising later to 30-50 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... Stormy with blustery southwest winds developing, heavy or squally showers with thunder and hail mixed with a few clear breaks, winds rising to SSW 40-60 mph in many areas and 50-80 mph in coastal west and northwest. Strongest winds towards daybreak, overnight temperatures steady near 15 C north to 17 C south.

MONDAY ... Windy or very windy, with storm force wind gusts west and later north, to near hurricane force in exposed locations of northwest coast (SW veering WSW 50-80 mph), while further south in most of Leinster and Munster, gale force winds at times, showers clearing away east with some sunny intervals, winds WSW 35-55 mph ... temperatures in the north around 15-17 C but rising to near 20 C in southeast during the morning before levelling off near 17 C later.

Some risk of wind damage and coastal flooding around high tides or during very strong winds mainly in north Clare, coastal Galway, Mayo, Sligo and Donegal, as well as wind damage in higher parts of Connacht exposed to west.

MONDAY NIGHT ... Winds slowly easing to WNW 20-40 mph, rain or drizzle in parts of north, clear to partly cloudy further south, cooler, lows 8-10 C.

TUESDAY ... Breezy to windy (WNW 30-50 mph), a few squally showers in north, variable cloud with isolated showers further south. Highs 15-17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud after a sunny start, showers by evening, breezy, lows near 6 C and highs near 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A warmer, dry interval, as long as the next hurricane (Maria) tracks as expected further north towards Iceland around next weekend.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Sunny, hot western half, some outbreaks of rain from remnants of Lee in PA, wNY, otherwise cloudy and rather cool in northeast U.S., hot and humid in southeast. Maria now approaching Virgin Islands, Nate trying to become a hurricane in southern Gulf of Mexico but likely to fall short and head west into Veracruz region of Mexico.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny, very warm again, highs 25-30 C in the region on Friday.

Updates as required to this forecast will be posted, it's one of those hope for the best and plan for the worst situations but other than some exposed coastal locations the Sunday night and Monday storm may not be that severe on current indications.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Saturday, 10 September, 2011 _ 9:30 p.m.
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With rather conflicting signals in guidance this afternoon and evening, the ALERT for Sunday night into Monday (re "Katia") is maintained for now at the same levels as previously. We see roughly equal chances of the alert being verified at current strength, or at about 10 to 15 mph (say 10 knots) lower than stated. There remains the slight risk of a stronger outcome than our alert which we currently rate at 10%.

A further update will be issued between midnight and 0100h. The regular forecast at 0600h and Sunday's updates will probably be able to discuss in more detail the likely outcome as the storm approaches, including the strength and severity of any squall lines or thunderstorms breaking out ahead of the storm, as its frontal system begins to develop. As an ex-tropical cyclone only barely completing transition, fronts have just begun to appear with the low in the past few hours. This process may accelerate just as the storm approaches northwest Ireland.

In other words, be prepared for a wide range of local weather conditions that may include some severe wind gusts, squally showers or thundershowers, but also some fair weather intervals especially in the south by Monday, as a lot of the energy from this storm will sweep through Ireland overnight (Sunday-Monday) ahead of the storm's closest approach to Mayo and Donegal. However, in those counties and nearby, the effects may be more prolonged and continuous than elsewhere.

And in case anyone's wondering, Katia did not arrive early, tonight's rather blustery SW winds are from a disturbance that is being shoved forward and out of the way by onrushing Katia. It is also being energized by the same strong jet stream as Katia itself. There may be a slight lull in these stronger winds tomorrow morning in some regions before another increase towards late afternoon and evening.

M.T. Cranium

Update -- Sunday, 11 September, 0130h
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Holding the ALERTS at previous levels for now ... guidance continues to suggest a slight downgrade but actual track of Katia continues to suggest caution on that ... no further updates likely until forecast time (0630h).

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 11 September, 2011
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ALERT for strong winds and gusty showers or thunderstorms spreading in from the southwest tonight and easing mid-day Monday although some severe gusts could then continue in the north. Peak gusts may reach 90 mph (about 80 knots) in the northwest and much more locally in any severe storms further south. Some wind damage may result. There are also risks of coastal flooding from very high tides and large waves, swells.

TODAY ... Some further moderate rain across the north, easing mid-day, variable cloud further south, more showers likely by mid-day there, these moving rapidly northeast in a strengthening SW wind of 30-50 mph. Rather warm and humid especially in the south, highs ranging from 15 C far north to 20 C south. Rainfalls 10-20 mms on average, heavier in Ulster and later in southwest to inland south.

TONIGHT ... Becoming stormy with gale or storm force southwest winds in most regions, and some heavy showers or thunderstorms with locally severe gusts possible as a result. Winds SSW 40-60 mph for most, local gusts could reach 90 mph with some damage potential. Updates will handle any developing thunderstorm cells or clusters. Temperatures will be very sultry as tropical air sweeps in, and it could be near 18 or even 20 C for a good part of the overnight except 14-16 C in the far north. Rainfalls 10-30 mms, amounts dependent on tracks of heavy showers but likely to peak in west-central counties.

MONDAY ... West, northwest and north coastal counties could see a spell of storm force wind gusts in SW winds 50-80 mph, with passing showers that could be very squally in places. Highs about 16 C. South of about the Shannon estuary, the winds may not be as severe, and a clearing trend may develop fairly early on. High waves of 8-15 metres and large swells can be expected on the west coast. Some local flooding is likely especially around high tides (morning and evening hours).

For central, southern and eastern counties ... The heavy showers and storms should blast eastward in the morning and sunshine may follow for the south in moderately strong southwest winds veering westerly at 35-55 mph; highs for these regions 18-21 C. The severe storm risk may end latest by 0900 or 1000h in the east. Some places may see sunshine much of the day, although low cloud may scud in from the Atlantic some distance into the southwest at times.

MONDAY NIGHT ... Winds slowly easing to WNW 25-55 mph, rain or drizzle in parts of north, clear to partly cloudy further south, winds WNW 20-40 mph, cooler, lows 8-10 C.

TUESDAY ... Breezy to windy (WNW 30-50 mph), a few squally showers in north, variable cloud with isolated showers further south. Highs 15-17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated showers mainly north, lows near 6 C and highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud after a sunny start, showers by evening, breezy, lows near 6 C and highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, a few showers, cool, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Some dry intervals and possibly some sunshine, but there will be a risk of showers too, with highs about 17 C. At the moment, future hurricane Maria is expected to track well north towards Iceland but may extend a showery trough similar to Irene's final actions, affecting Ireland eventually.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Hot, dry in west, local showers further east and cooler than normal in most regions. Nate getting ready to chug onshore as a minimal hurricane near Veracruz, Mexico. Maria is regaining some lost strength near the Virgin Islands.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was a sunny, warm day with highs near 25 C locally and 30-35 C further inland.

Updates when required ... guidance was somewhat mixed even at this late hour (meaning close to the event, not on the clock) ... the last position from satellite for Katia was about 50 N and 28 W ... the two European-based models seem to have jogged back to a more intense solution, which I have followed above ... a point I would like to stress is that the west and north coast damaging winds are not the only story of this storm, the potential for overnight frontal storms must be watched closely as well. And those could affect more populated areas all over the country.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Sunday, 11 Sept 2011 _ 9:30 p.m.
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Storm's current centre appears to be about 964 mbs at 53N 21W, tracking east-north-east to reach 56N 10W by 0900h.

Development of a strong wind field has been held back today as colder air races east to catch up to the fast-moving low, which has allowed the centre to retain some hybrid characteristics as it continues to be largely embedded in remnant tropical air mass that forms a large warm sector now, approaching Ireland from the southwest.

The warm front is now located from about Galway to Wicklow moving steadily northeast. The air mass in the warm sector will be misty to foggy with temperatures tending to rise slowly overnight especially inland, possibly reaching as high as 17-19 C later on.

Expect this warm sector to become unstable towards 0600h as a cold front develops and rotates around the storm centre (which may show some tendency to deepen also). This will give the risk of a few gusty thunderstorms in central and southeast counties towards daybreak, and into the Dublin area around 0800h. That may be followed by at least partial clearance of skies south of about Galway to Meath. Further north, the cloudy and showery circulation around the low centre will probably remain with only brief clear breaks between showers. That circulation will also become stronger as unstable air develops, so on the west and northwest coast, expect rather moderate winds most of the night from a southerly direction, rapidly rising to gale or storm force around daybreak, veering S to SW and increasing from about 30-40 mph to 50-80 mph. The high tides of about 06h may be running as much as a metre above tide table predictions. Large waves and swells will begin crashing ashore shortly after daybreak.

The rest of Monday should go as stated in the main forecast, very windy at times with squally showers more frequent in the northern half of the country and some longer sunny spells in the southern half except possibly near the Kerry to south Clare coasts where low cloud may frequently come scudding inland. Your reports tomorrow will be very interesting, there should be quite a mixed bag of weather conditions with the westerly flow. Don't be surprised if the gusty winds have a large range of wind speeds as much stronger winds occasionally mix down from just above the surface. Higher exposed locations could have some very strong gusts (to near 80 knots).

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Sunday, 11:45 p.m.
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No major changes, just a confirmation from most recent 18z model runs that very strong SW winds can be expected to develop around 0300h then rise to peak intensity 0600h to 0900h in west coast counties, slightly later timetable for Donegal and west Ulster. Further south, peak winds will probably come and go during the day depending on local showers, trough lines etc, but there will be a trend towards peak winds mid-day on east coast.

As this is our last forecast before onset, peak wind speeds are now predicted as follows: 70-80 knots in exposed locations of west and north, 50-60 knots most other places, 40 knots in sheltered locations inland (especially in deeper valleys). There may be some locally intense wind effects near hills. We expect these winds to occur shortly after daybreak with some chance of seeing equal or almost equal severity through to about mid-day.

Watch for updates about any thunderstorm cells that may produce locally strong winds. Otherwise the next forecast update will be with the main forecast statement at 0600h.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 12 September, 2011
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ALERT for storm force wind gusts across the north and west today, and local hurricane force gusts in exposed coastal and hilly locations ... gale to storm force gusts further east and south. Possible coastal flooding, large waves, swells.

TODAY ... The storm has broken on the west coast with gusts already over 55 knots (near 65 mph). This morning, storm force SW winds 50-80 mph in exposed locations in west and north coast counties, some local damage to trees and buildings possible. Mainly cloudy with the strong winds, brief showers or drizzle. Large waves 8-15 metres, very large swells likely (full moon is today at about 0930h). Risk of coastal flooding. Temperatures steady near 14 or 15 C.

Further south and east, gale to storm force SW winds, brief showers, becoming partly cloudy, some longer sunny intervals developing, but risk of a brief gusty shower or thunderstorm. Temperatures may have already peaked during the night but may recover a few degrees later on to reach 18-20 C.
Winds SW 35-55 mph with some higher gusts possible.

Further rainfall amounts today only 1-3 mms for most places.

Winds should ease gradually late afternoon in the coastal northwest, and by evening in Ulster.

TONIGHT ... Winds slowly easing to WNW 25-55 mph, rain or drizzle in parts of north, clear to partly cloudy further south, winds WNW 20-40 mph, cooler, lows 8-10 C.

TUESDAY ... Breezy to windy (WNW 30-50 mph), a few squally showers in north, variable cloud with isolated showers further south. There may be a spell of stronger winds and heavier showers with a secondary front dropping south late afternoon to evening. Highs 15-17 C south, 12-14 C north.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated showers mainly north, lows near 6 C and highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud after a sunny start, showers by evening, breezy, lows near 6 C and highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, a few showers, cool, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Some dry intervals and possibly some sunshine, but there will be a risk of showers too, with highs about 17 C. At the moment, future hurricane Maria is expected to track well north towards Iceland but may extend a showery trough similar to Irene's final actions, affecting Ireland eventually.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Hot, sunny weather continued on Sunday in most of the western half, although much cooler by afternoon in central and northern Alberta and B.C. with a cold front dropping slowly south. It continues a bit on the cool side in the eastern half of the continent. Nate moved inland in Mexico and never became a hurricane. Maria continues on track to move up the Gulf Stream but instead of following Katia's track, she will slam into Newfoundland around Friday and continue north towards Greenland, spreading out in the Greenland-Iceland region later.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny and hot on Sunday, no sea breeze so temperatures soared to about 31 C. It may have been a daily record, close anyway.

Check the discussion threads as well as here for updates. Peak winds in Mayo Clare, Galway should be arriving soon. More like 0900-1100 for Donegal.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 13 September, 2011
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TODAY ... Remaining quite blustery although not stormy, westerly winds about 25-45 mph, a few higher gusts possible mid-day in Donegal (to 55 mph) and cloudy for most regions, a little sunshine at times mainly in the southeast, short-lived squally showers but also some rain and drizzle in the far north, amounts rather small. Highs 12-14 C north, 14-16 C south.

TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing well after midnight, light showers ending, winds dropping off to light in the inland south but moderate west to northwest elsewhere, lows 6-8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers north, moderate northwest winds at times, cool, highs 13-15 C.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ... Clearing, mist patches, chilly, local ground frost likely, lows 2-5 C except in more sheltered locations.

THURSDAY ... Sunny periods, increasing cloud, rain by late afternoon or evening moving into west, moderate southeast winds developing. Highs from 15 to 18 C warmest in east.

FRIDAY ... Periods of rain, just a few brighter intervals, 5-15 mms rainfall likely, foggy at times, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

SATURDAY ... Becoming rather windy with blustery showers especially across the north and west, winds WNW 30-50 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 14.

SUNDAY ... Not quite as windy or squally, but still partly cloudy with a few brief showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Brighter intervals developing as high pressure edges closer to south, likely to remain overcast and showery in northern counties, a bit warmer.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The western warm spell is being suppressed into the inland regions of the western U.S. while western Canada cools down in an expanding arctic high that has dropped mid-day temperatures into the low to mid teens (from near 30 earlier). The east has temporarily warmed up but this colder air is slowly spreading southeast and should overspread the Great Lakes region then the northeast towards the end of the week, while remnants of "Maria" move up the Gulf stream offshore and combine with the fronts near Newfoundland on Friday.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday remained sunny but was a bit cooler than the weekend with a high near 20 C and a refreshing sea breeze. Bright full moon this evening, but expecting low cloud soon from marine layer cloud.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 14 September, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly overcast at first, becoming partly cloudy, with a few isolated showers mainly in the north, and moderate west to northwest winds at times (15-30 mph), feeling rather cool, highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Clearing, mist patches, chilly, local ground frost likely, lows 2-5 C except in more sheltered locations.

THURSDAY ... Sunny periods, increasing cloud, rain by late afternoon or evening moving into west, moderate southeast winds developing. Highs from 15 to 18 C warmest in east.

FRIDAY ... Periods of rain, just a few brighter intervals, 5-15 mms rainfall likely, foggy at times, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C. Becoming breezy or windy later in the day in parts of Munster.

SATURDAY ... Becoming rather windy with blustery showers especially across the north and west, winds WNW 30-50 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 14.

SUNDAY ... Not quite as windy or squally, but still partly cloudy with a few brief showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Periods of rain Sunday night may affect most regions, then brighter intervals developing as high pressure edges closer to south on Monday and Tuesday, although likely to remain overcast and showery in northern counties, turning a bit warmer especially across the south.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... An extensive outbreak of colder weather is moving across the Great Lakes now from a source in north central Canada. High pressure further west may bring the first frosts to the western and central prairies and this chill now extends well south of the border, although it is still very warm across the south central and southeast U.S. ... Tropical Storm Maria is struggling to survive and may not make it all the way to Newfoundland before being absorbed by the low in Quebec that is leading the advance of the colder air mentioned above.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, cooler than recent days, high of 17 C on Tuesday.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 15 September, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy although brighter at times in eastern and southern counties, while some light drizzly rain develops further west with showers over parts of Ulster. Milder and feeling pleasant in any brief sunshine, light southeast winds picking up southwest to northwest coasts later, highs about 15 to 17 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain developing from west to east, 5-15 mms potential, foggy by midnight in many places, winds SE 15-25 mph, lows 8-11 C.

FRIDAY ... Periods of rain, just a few brighter intervals developing mainly in the southwest, 3-15 mms further rainfall likely with heavier amounts in northeast due to later start, foggy at times with the rain, and highs near 15 C. Becoming breezy or windy later in the day in parts of Munster, WSW 20-40 mph there, but SE 20 mph ahead of the clearing in the rain.

SATURDAY ... Becoming rather windy with blustery showers especially across the north and west, winds WNW 30-50 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 14.

SUNDAY ... Not quite as windy or squally, but still partly cloudy with a few brief showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Periods of rain Sunday night may affect most regions, then brighter intervals developing as high pressure edges closer to south on Monday and Tuesday, although likely to remain overcast and showery in northern counties, turning a bit warmer especially across the south.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Colder air is gradually pushing further south but the southeast and south central U.S. remain warm to hot and humid. Not very much active weather, as a weak return flow around the central high brings extensive cloud and drizzle in some areas of the Rockies.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was cloudy with light SE winds and highs of about 17 C. Dry here but showers not far away to north.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 16 September, 2011
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TODAY ... Morning showers with risk of thunder across the north and east, with a further 5-10 mms of rain likely there. Some sunny breaks developing south and west, before cloud returns followed by a few scattered showers. Winds ahead of the front SE 15-20 mph rapidly veering to westerly 20-40 mph with higher gusts near the southwest coast. Highs generally 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Breezy, cool, further showers in westerly winds of 20-30 mph, and lows around 9 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, occasional showers that could contain hail and thunder, blustery at times with winds WNW 20-40 mph, highs 14-16 C.

SUNDAY ... Following more overnight showers or periods of light rain, and lows near 8 C, the day should slowly improve to an afternoon of sunny intervals, diminishing north-westerly winds, and highs near 15 C. Some places may have quite a chilly night to follow with lows 3-7 C.

MONDAY ... Rain possible in the north at times, partly cloudy across the south, where it should warm up somewhat after a cool start, highs 15-18 C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled especially in the north, showery spells becoming quite frequent, temperatures near normal. A stormy period could follow in another week.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The dominant feature a cool modified arctic air mass bringing sharp frosts to central and some eastern regions, while Hurricane Maria accelerates towards St John's in the southeast tip of Newfoundland where it may hit around 8:30 p.m. Irish time or 5 p.m. local time. Some welcome rains in Texas and Oklahoma earlier, although not drought-breaking.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, some light rain at times, high on Thursday about 18 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 17 September, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with widespread thundery showers, some with hail, and a slight risk of s isolated small tornadoes. If the sun comes out, it will likely mean more storms are brewing. Rather cool in a blustery west or WNW breeze 20-35 mph, some higher gusts near squally showers. Hail to 2 cms in diameter could produce slippery road conditions. Highs 14-15 C. Rainfalls in the 7-15 mm range, probably higher across the south where heavy storms appear most likely (although they could break out almost everywhere).

TONIGHT ... Further showers, breezy and cool with lows near 9 C, winds westerly 15-25 mph, still a slight chance of hail or thunder.

SUNDAY ... Although the morning may continue unsettled, a bit more sunshine should break through by mid-day and some places may have a more pleasant afternoon although it could stay unsettled in the far north and most of Ulster. Highs 14-17 C highest in southwest. Periods of rain may develop by evening or overnight.

MONDAY ... Morning showers ending, partly cloudy and a bit milder in a more humid W to SW flow, lows near 12 C and highs near 16 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, mild and humid, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled although perhaps some longer dry intervals in the south, looking rather stormy towards the following weekend. Temperatures a degree or so above normal.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... In general, the summer pattern has been pushed to the southern states while autumnal air masses have sagged well south, with frosts in the Great Lakes region. The last gasp of Hurricane Maria was a windy day in Newfoundland on Friday and now that tropical system has been fully absorbed by a deep low on the Labrador coast. The complex is now heading northeast towards the south tip of Greenland. Meanwhile, stormy in Utah with these storms spreading towards Colorado.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy but dry with the high around 18 C on Friday.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 18 September, 2011
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TODAY ... Rather windy to start, especially around Donegal where a northerly gale may continue for part of the morning. Elsewhere, moderate NW winds 15-30 mph should ease off to westerly 10-20 mph by afternoon. Showers will become much less frequent and sunshine may prevail by afternoon, with cloud rapidly increasing again by sunset. Highs 14-17 C, mildest in the south.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, outbreaks of rain advancing from west to east, potential for 5-10 mms heavier in the north-central counties. Lows 9-12 C.

MONDAY ... Rain ending, some breaks in the overcast developing to hazy sunshine at times, moderate WSW winds 15-30 mph, and a bit warmer, more humid. Highs around 17 C. Further showers could develop.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, drizzle at times, or light rain especially in Connacht, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C south, 14 C north. Moderate southwest winds 15-30 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy at times (W 25-40 mph), a few showers developing in the north, lows near 9 C and highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy, mild to warm, humid, outbreaks of rain possible by later in the day, lows near 9 C and highs 16-19 C. Potentially very windy by late in the day.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, windy, lows near 12 C and highs near 16.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, windy, showers. There are some signs of a warmer and briefly dry spell following the weekend (but rather tentative at present).

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... A strong frontal zone has developed across the south-central U.S. with heavy to severe storms in a few places, and quite a contrast between summery heat to the south and autumn chill further north. Widespread frost in the Great Lakes region and inland northeast states. Somewhat warmer in western Canada although not above normal values.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy with a few brief showers, highs near 17 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 19 September, 2011
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TODAY ... Morning showers ending soon in the southeast, with brighter if rather cloudy weather spreading from west to east, some hazy sun at times, possible light rain by evening in the west as another weak front arrives ... winds generally WSW 15-25 mph ... highs 15-17 C, milder in southwest.

TONIGHT ... Light rain at times, hazy or misty, mild, lows 10-13 C. Rainfalls only 2-5 mms.

TUESDAY ... Showers ending, partly cloudy for most, isolated showers in northwest, moderate westerly winds backing to south-southwesterly late in the day, mild again with highs 16-18 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Becoming quite breezy south and windy north with a few blustery showers developing, winds WSW 20-40 mph (30-50 mph Donegal, Mayo, parts of Connacht and Ulster). Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C. Rainfalls of about 5-10 mms mainly northern half of the country.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, not as windy, just a few showers, lows near 9 or 10 C and highs 17-19 C. Winds backing to southerly and becoming strong in Connacht and west Ulster by evening.

FRIDAY ... Overnight strong winds and squally showers, continuing at times during the day, winds SSW to WSW 30-50 mph, lows near 12 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy, outbreaks of showery rain, lows near 9 C and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, a bit warmer, lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A warmer spell may develop as high pressure over central Europe diverts the jet stream well north.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Showers or thunderstorms in a few parts of the southeast, outbreaks of cool rain further north in the north central plains states, but northeast and Great Lakes continuing mild and dry ... warming up slowly in the west especially inland and east of the Rockies.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday was partly cloudy and rather muggy with cloud and a few brighter intervals, highs near 20 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 20 September, 2011
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TODAY ... Partly cloudy with some longer sunny intervals in the south, showers eventually developing in Connacht and spreading to other regions late afternoon although some places may remain dry ... moderate SW winds backing southerly 15-25 mph, rather mild to warm with highs 15-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals south, overcast north, occasional showers, heavier rain developing in west and north towards morning, lows 9-12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Blustery especially in northern counties, winds westerly at 30-50 mph (20-40 mph inland south), heavy showers some with hail and thunder, rainfalls 5-15 mms heavier inland north, somewhat cooler especially in Connacht, highs 13-15 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny breaks, only a few isolated showers by morning, largely dry in most places, mild, southwest winds backing to southerly 15-25 mph. Lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C south, 15 C north.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, breezy or windy, showers by afternoon or evening with 5-15 mms by midnight, strong SSW winds 30-50 mph developing, mild to warm, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, frequent showers, 10-20 mms rain likely, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY ... Hazy, rain ending and some clearing, warm, lows near 10 C and highs near 19 C inland south, 16 C north.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The last week of the month may average 2-4 C degrees above normal with occasional showers but the chance of some warm sunshine at times.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... A rather weak storm track near the U.S.-Canada border is pulling slightly warmer air back north with outbreaks of rain but temperatures are only recovering to near normal values. The patterns are generally rather bland with weak pressure gradients.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Hazy sunshine, mild to warm, highs near 21 C on Monday.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 21 September, 2011
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TODAY ... During the morning, some blustery showers that could develop into thunderstorms will move across Leinster and east Ulster, clearing eastward by mid-day. Southern counties may get the tail end of this front about then also, but some places could see very brief showers. Meanwhile, the north will be swept by a second band of steady rain becoming squally showers later in the day, then partial clearing will develop, all of this combined with strong westerly winds 30-50 mph (that will be more moderate in the south). Rainfalls will vary from 10-15 mms north to 2-5 mms south. Highs about 13 C in the north and 15-17 C in the south.

TONIGHT ... A few more showers although a gradual clearing trend from west to east with some hill fog or mist persisting near the Atlantic coasts, mild, lows around 10 C. Winds not as strong after midnight but remaining about 15 or 20 mph from the southwest.

THURSDAY ... Some intervals of hazy sunshine, although considerable higher cloud, a few outbreaks of drizzle or light rain mainly near south and west coasts, very mild especially inland and east in a south to southwest flow with winds 10-20 mph, highs 16-19 C.

FRIDAY ... After a partly cloudy night with lows 6-9 C, the day will see increasing cloud, showers developing and becoming rather windy again (SW 20-40 mph), potential for 10-20 mms rain by early Saturday, highs 15-17 C.

SATURDAY ... Morning showers or periods of rain, some clearing later but further showers likely by evening, mild, foggy in parts of north and over higher ground generally, lows near 11 C and highs 15-17 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud once the overnight rain ends, rather warm inland, lows near 12 C and highs 18-20 C.

OUTLOOK ... Next week may have one or two further intervals of showers especially in the west and north, but there are also signs of warm, dry air trying to push northwest from France through southern England towards at least the southeast if not larger portions of Ireland, so a fine spell of autumnal weather may develop late in the month.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Showery east coast, warm and dry in many other regions, especially on the west coast where it was quite summery.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny, very warm on Tuesday, high about 24 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 22 September, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, some brighter intervals developing by mid-day or afternoon in northern and some central counties ... mild to warm, highs about 17 or 18 C ... moderate southwest winds backing southerly ... sprinkles of light rain or drizzle across the inland south, with heavier showers later near the Atlantic coasts. Rainfalls there about 3-5 mms, otherwise trace to 2 mms.

TONIGHT ... Foggy or misty, further light showers mainly west, mild, lows near 12 C.

FRIDAY ... Some morning sunshine followed by thickening cloud, outbreaks of rain by late afternoon or evening, 5-10 mms by Saturday morning, with highs of about 15-17 C, then foggy overnight with lows about 12 C. Winds moderate southerly 15-25 mph.

SATURDAY ... Morning showers ending east, brighter intervals developing with some hazy sunshine at times, warm inland, highs 17-19 C. Another interval of rain developing by evening in the west. Winds moderate SW'ly 15-25 mph.

SUNDAY ... Overnight rain becoming heavy and possibly thundery, continuing part or all of the day in eastern counties, gradually clearing away in the west, although some lingering fog and drizzle near the coast, moderate south to southwest winds. Lows near 12 C and highs near 16 C.

MONDAY ... Gradual clearing of early fog and mist, hazy, warm. Lows near 11 and highs near 19 C inland (15-16 C north).

OUTLOOK ... A warm and settled interval may develop especially across the southeast as this pattern extends from France across the U.K. towards Ireland from a southeast direction. Further west it could also be settled and warm at times but a frontal band just offshore may occasionally spread rain into outer west coast districts. There is some chance of seeing temperatures near or above 20 C during this spell. Dense overnight fog is likely to become a recurrent theme.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... and REPORT ON JAPAN's TYPHOON ROKE ...

The general theme of North American weather continues to be warm/dry in the west and cool to near normal, unsettled in the east, but this pattern will slowly flatten out and the warmth will expand to cover most regions over the next few days. The models make little end result from Tropical Storm Ophelia which should pass the Virgin Islands and head northwest.

Meanwhile, Japan had a strong typhoon landfall on Wednesday afternoon their time. The typhoon came inland west of Tokyo and although near cat-4 intensity offshore, the weather stations between Tokyo and the city of Hammamatsu all reported roughly cat-1 or cat-2 conditions at landfall (winds near Tokyo gusted to about 80-100 mph). The storm then moved inland west and north of Tokyo and re-entered the Pacific at tropical storm strength near Sendai, where last March's tsunami also hit. The storm is now moving north of the Kuril Island chain across the southern Sea of Okhotsk and should become extratropical soon near Kamchatka in eastern Siberia (Russia).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was a cloudy day with occasional light rain and a high near 20 C. Foggy conditions are now developing at 11:15 pm local time (still Wednesday here -- in Japan of course it is now late Thursday afternoon).

NEWS about LONG-RANGE FORECAST for WINTER ... I am working on a long-range forecast but it won't be ready until mid-October at the earliest.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 23 September, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy to start, although a few brighter intervals in the south and east, while showers continue to move through Connacht and Ulster. Heavier bursts of rain likely by afternoon west, evening east, 5-10 mms in most places, as winds continue southerly at about 15-20 mph. Rather foggy or misty over higher ground and some coastlines. Highs 15-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Misty, becoming foggy, rain ending in western counties but continuing sporadically elsewhere. Lows around 12 C in a mild southerly flow.

SATURDAY ... Morning showers ending in the east, partly cloudy and rather warm inland, foggy or misty near south and west coasts in a moderate southerly wind. Highs 16-18 C inland, 14-16 C closer to shorelines.

SATURDAY NIGHT into SUNDAY ... Intervals of heavy rain may develop with potential for 20-30 mms, some thundery showers especially south and east, and possible strong winds around Wexford and nearby southeast counties (from a SSW direction) followed by more widespread moderate westerly winds as clouds begin to break late afternoon west, evening or overnight east. The morning lows will be 10-12 C and afternoon highs 14-16 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, a few isolated showers, winds westerly and rather brisk at first, then backing to southerly again, drizzle or low cloud becoming widespread, after some hazy sunshine in a few spots ... highs around 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... From Tuesday to end of the week, a warm spell seems likely at least for parts of the south and east well inland, where hazy sunshine could boost temperatures into the 19-24 C range. Coastal areas and parts of the west and north may be held to 16-19 C by more frequent low cloud and drizzle in a southeasterly flow that could veer more southerly at times near the Atlantic coast. Anyone travelling to the UK or France is even more likely to encounter some very warm autumn weather as the highest pressures will be near the North Sea and Belgium into eastern France. Extensive fog or mist is likely overnight in this pattern.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Not much change, extensive cloud and drizzle or light rain from a weak upper level disturbance over the inland eastern states, but a warm, dry pattern over much of central and western regions well north into Canada, with the storm track across Yukon and the NWT. Ophelia is having trouble maintaining much of a circulation and could be gone at some point tomorrow despite a five-day outlook taking it well to the northwest ... but it could redevelop there after a day or two of inactivity.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Warm and humid despite a lot of cloud and a few sharp showers this morning mostly, 20 C feeling more like 24 C by Thursday afternoon.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 24 September, 2011
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TODAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny in most places, although intervals of low cloud and drizzle likely in western Galway and Mayo extending at times into Donegal and nearby counties. Some fog or mist likely on outer south coast. Winds generally moderate southerly 10-20 mph, highs 17-19 C.

TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud, rain spreading into west, moderate southerly winds rising to 15-30 mph, lows 11-13 C. Rainfalls overnight 5-10 mms west.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, heavy showers or thunderstorms and some heavy rainfalls likely in south central to inland eastern districts. 15-30 mms of rain possible, some spot flooding. Becoming rather windy especially near the south coast (SSW 20-40 mph, veering to WSW 20-40 mph). Highs near 15 or 16 C.

MONDAY ... Early morning showers ending, foggy, then variable cloud by mid-day with some sunny intervals especially for the inland southeast, winds diminishing and backing to southerly later, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C west and north to 19 C inland southeast.

TUESDAY ... Showers near west coast spreading some distance inland and across the northwest later, hazy sunshine at times further east, warm, moderate southerly winds backing to southeast, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C west to 21 C east.

OUTLOOK ... Several more warm days likely, with the pattern remaining somewhat unsettled in the west and more settled in the east, winds staying southeast to south mainly, and tending to become lighter as high pressure edges closer at times ... potential for temperatures to rise into 22-24 C range in parts of the eastern and even central counties, more likely to stay in the 18 to 21 C range west and far north, south coast due to sea breeze effects, also some risk of fog or low cloud near coasts, and widespread dense fog patches in valleys inland overnight and morning hours.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... It continues near-record warm across western Canada and the northwest U.S. with highs near 30 C in parts of Alberta and Montana on Friday. Temperatures closer to the Great Lakes are near normal values in a showery regime of light winds around a weak upper disturbance that is also spreading rain up the U.S. east coast. Warm and dry further west across the central U.S. Ophelia has managed to fight off the shear and is chugging along near the Virgin Islands towards the Bahamas where another disturbance appears to be trying to reach tropical levels overnight.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, warm, humid, some light rain Friday, clearing by late afternoon, highs near 23 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 25 September, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers or periods of rain, some thunderstorms developing, heaviest rain from southwest towards Dublin and Meath (later morning to late afternoon) giving 20-30 mms locally, otherwise about 10-15 for most ... moderate southerly winds veering to southwest later, 20-40 mph, with high temperatures about 15-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Misty or foggy as the rain slowly tapers off to drizzle, moderate southwest winds, mild, lows 10-12 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with a few intervals of hazy sunshine developing inland southeast, mild to warm, highs 16-19 C. A few light showers will push north along the west coast and there could also be brief intervals of rain or drizzle near the east coast. Winds backing to southerly 15-25 mph.

TUESDAY ... Some hazy sunshine in eastern counties, mostly cloudy elsewhere with a few outbreaks of showery rain near west coast, mild to warm, southerly winds 15-30 mph, lows near 10 C and highs near 19 C (possibly 21 C inland southeast).

OUTLOOK ... Little change on Wednesday with another surge of showery rain moving north near the Atlantic coasts, and some chance of hazy sunshine at times in the east, then the warm, dry conditions may spread a bit further west with time and eventually the wind field may back through southeast to east and northeast, extending the warm, dry conditions to the west coast and introducing cooler sea breeze conditions to the east coast, but that may take about a week to ten days. A fairly prolonged quiet spell may develop with high pressure settling over the north.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... There continues to be a feed of very warm air of subtropical origins into western Canada and the northwest to north central states, and highs near 30 C have been reported in Alberta. Well north of Vancouver, some heavy rain is spreading across the coast with flooding in some isolated regions near Bella Coola, B.C. ... and it continues very wet in the northeast U.S. from a weak but persistent disturbance there. Ophelia has continued a rather disorganized trek towards Bermuda, while Philippe has formed further east and looks set to drift north slowly in the general direction of the Azores but then it will be forced to a crawl by the high mentioned in the Irish long-range forecast. It could become a factor in the Irish forecast as a source of moisture in about two weeks' time.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Some sunshine, but mostly cloudy, warm and dry on Saturday, highs about 22 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 26 September, 2011
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The main theme for the week will be a gradual warming trend affecting the eastern half of the country more directly as the western counties remain rather close to a persistent frontal zone with waves of moisture moving north, much of that offshore, but some coming inland about as far east as mid-Ulster south through Athlone to about Cork. The warm spell should gain the upper hand over the cloud and showers by the end of the week and extend further west by next weekend to cover just about all districts by then. The situation is somewhat uncertain and a slight shift in the pattern or extensive low cloud could cut into potential record high temperatures that seem very likely to develop over parts of England and France, and could also develop in east-central Ireland at least on one or two days out of the period ... and the warmth could last until the following weekend and some distance beyond that before gradually fading out in a resumed westerly flow that may eventually yield to a colder northerly.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy west and north, low cloud or fog developing near south coast, brief showers (trace - 2 mms rain), some hazy sun at times inland southeast. Moderate S-SW winds, highs near 17 C west, south coast, 19 C east, central and north.

TONIGHT ... Misty with some fog, mild and humid, showers becoming heavier in west towards morning, lows 10-13 C.

TUESDAY ... Showers across west and northwest, cloudy central counties but some hazy sunshine at times in the east. Warm in a southerly wind at 15 to 30 mph (20-40 west coast). Highs 17 C west to 20 C inland east, north.

WEDNESDAY ... Risk of heavy showers in far west, possible thunder, but continuing dry and warm further east, winds backing slightly to SSE 15-30 mph, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C west, 22 C east.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Similar with further rain at times in the west, possibly heavy again around Thursday night, and (on a knife-edge, admittedly) staying dry for parts of the east with some warm hazy sunshine at times, winds backing further to SE 15-30 mph. Highs both days could reach 22-24 C in parts of the east, despite some coastal sea breezes, but remaining closer to 20 C west. Note if travelling to England or France, highs there could reach 29-32 C in some places.

OUTLOOK for SATURDAY-SUNDAY 1-2 OCTOBER ... This appears to be a more settled period for all regions as the warm high ridges west and pushes the storm track away from Ireland. Although the light east to southeast breezes could prove a bit cooler near the Irish Sea coasts, most regions could get well into the 20s in this pattern (24-27 C would be possible given enough sunshine) and except for a few outer headlands the west and north coasts should share in the warmth (at least 21-24 C), with sunshine spreading further west at this point.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The warm spell seems likely to break down gradually as high pressure slowly transfers in a generally northwest direction through the first week of October ... eventually this could lead to a much cooler northerly circulation developing, but timing that from this distance seems very approximate, I am speculating around 5-8 October for an eventual reversal to below normal temperatures. It could take even longer.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Sunday continued record warm in many parts of western Canada with readings of 31-32 C in some places, trending down near the coast as a weak front moved inland giving showers there. The eastern third of North America remains somewhat unsettled although warm to the east of a stagnant pool of cloud and rain near the mid-Atlantic states.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, some heavy showers at times on Sunday, but clearing slowly late afternoon, humid, around 19 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 27 September, 2011
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TODAY ... Western counties will be mostly cloudy, with sporadic light showers giving 1-3 mms on average, and quite warm with southerly winds at 20-35 mph, highs 18-20 C. Further east, intervals of hazy sunshine, warm especially inland, highs 19-22 C. Winds SSE 10-20 mph. Some low cloud and fog will persist near south coast, occasionally blowing some distance inland before breaking up. This will leave Cork and Waterford with variable cloud, spots of drizzle, and highs near 18 C.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, very mild in southerly winds 15-25 mph, lows only falling to 13-15 C. Spots of rain continuing near west coast, not much accumulation, trace to 2 mms.

WEDNESDAY ... An interval of heavier rain could develop near the west coast but much of this will be offshore where strong southerly winds (to force 7) will develop. On land, winds should reach SSE 25-40 mph at times, with potential for 5-10 mms of rain in some places. Further east, the day should remain dry with a few sunny intervals, and continued quite warm and humid with highs 18-23 C. Low cloud and fog again likely near south coast.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY ... Somewhat less chance of rain in the west on Thursday, but still a few light showers at times, in a more moderate southerly backing to southeasterly 10-20 mph occasionally 20-30 mph, highs near 18 C. Heavy rain may move into the southwest some time on Friday and then could (about 50% likely) move about halfway across the country leaving parts of Ulster and north Leinster dry.

For the east, intervals of warm sunshine on Thursday, highs 20-24 C. South coast likely to see fog only hugging the coast in these somewhat lighter winds, but low cloud may try to move inland at times. North and west should benefit from the backed winds (SE 10-20 mph) allowing warmer air to spread into parts of Connacht and Ulster. Overnight lows will continue very mild at 13-16 C. Rain may hold temperatures down somewhat (17-19 C) and according to some guidance this rain could become heavy especially in west Munster.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Rain may try to push from the southwest across most other regions but the warm, dry pattern could hold over parts of the north and central, possibly also southeast counties, with the rain most likely in Munster where it could become heavy or thundery. At this early stage, I wouldn't make or break too many plans for the weekend, because the models have quite a spread and conditions could range from very warm and sunny to chilly with fog and drizzle, and this might actually be the outcome in different regions if a front stalls through central Ireland. Also the system may weaken after mid-day Saturday with the sunshine trying to break through low cloud again.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The remnants of the ridge of high pressure may undergo a general westward drift but may try to hold on while colder air begins to mass to the north waiting for the high to edge further west. This may begin to happen as early as Tuesday 4th or as late as Friday of the first week of October.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... More of the same for most, but heavy rains and strong winds from remnants of Typhoon Roke's energy on the west coast with widespread power outages and trees down on Vancouver Island. Although somewhat cooler on Monday across western Canada, a new surge of warmth will begin today. Meanwhile, the persistent upper low hangs tough over Ohio and Michigan with another wave of tropical moisture moving up the east coast throughout this week.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, windy, periods of rain, highs near 15 C on Monday. Although not excessively windy at my location, a little further west gusts of 100 km/hr and higher were recorded (from the SSE).

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 28 September, 2011
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TODAY ... Hazy sunshine and very warm for most, with highs 21-24 C, although low cloud and fog may produce much cooler conditions near the south coast (15-17 C). Some east coast locations could see slight cooling from sea breezes near shore. Meanwhile, in the far west, cloud will increase and light rain could begin late afternoon or evening. Winds generally SSE about 10-20 mph but 20-30 mph west coast.

TONIGHT ... Rain edging further east to cover most of the western counties, 2-5 mms there ... hazy or cloudy and very mild further east ... lows generally about 14 C.

THURSDAY ... Intervals of light rain in western counties and occasional showers to about central (from north to south) Ireland, some chance of hazy sunshine redeveloping across the inland east, highs 17-19 C west and 19-23 C in the east, once again rather foggy near south coast and about 16 C.

FRIDAY ... Periods of rain in southwest, occasional rain in Connacht and central Munster, cloudy but dry in east and some chance of hazy sun at times north Leinster and parts of Ulster. Continuing quite warm, about 17 C with the rain, and 19-22 C with any brighter weather in the northeast. Rainfalls 10-20 mms likely in Kerry, Cork, south Clare, Limerick with some thundery downpours possible. Light to moderate southeast winds.

FRIDAY NIGHT and SATURDAY ... Intervals of heavy rain with some thundery downpours edging closer to the inland southeast and midlands then fading during Saturday, some parts of the east and Ulster could either remain dry or see much less rain, temperatures steady 14-16 C with the rain and 16-19 C in brighter weather to northeast. Dense fog developing near coasts and over hills especially for west Munster. Winds falling off to light easterly then variable, north 10-20 mph at times near the Atlantic coast.

There has been a slight trend in guidance to hold this rain back over the west more, and it would not surprise me if the eventual outcome was a sharper frontal band giving persistent heavy rain in a north-south band across west-central counties with the east perhaps remaining dry. In any case, most of the U.K. will remain dry through this phase and the front is expected to dissolve rather than moving any further east.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with mid-day and afternoon sunny intervals, lows near 10 and highs near 17 C, some persistent fog or low cloud near outer coasts, temperatures around 12-15 C with the fog.

OUTLOOK ... Another dry spell will begin when the front dissolves Sunday and could last a few days, and temperatures may warm up again although not quite as warm as today or tomorrow. Highs of 16-19 C are likely with this second phase of the warm spell. A shift to more northerly winds has been pushed back on most guidance to about 8-10 October now.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The pattern remains almost stuck but shows signs of changing over the next two days. But for Tuesday, it continued quite warm across most of the west and the north-central U.S., while heavy rain edged east through PA as the upper low drifted east. Ophelia seems to be regenerating and could now become a hurricane near or east of Bermuda by Friday, then head for Newfoundland. Philippe has never been much of an entity and continues to drift northwest.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy with some sunny breaks, a few brief showers by evening on Tuesday, highs near 17 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 29 September, 2011
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TODAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny and very warm again with highs 21-24 C for many, with some low cloud or fog near south coast at times, and slight risk of showers moving in from the south. Winds SSW 20-30 mph. Western counties somewhat cloudier with highs 18-21 C.

TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud, rain at times near southwest coasts, 3-7 mms by morning there, very mild and foggy or misty elsewhere, lows 13-16 C.

FRIDAY ... Intervals of heavy rain slowly spreading north and slightly east from a starting point in west Munster. Some parts of the east could remain largely dry, and brighter with even some chance of hazy sunshine (mainly Wicklow, Dublin, coastal Leinster to east Ulster).

With the rain in west-central counties (heavier inland) amounts may reach 10 to 20 mms, and highs will be 15-18 C. Further east, where brighter, highs could reach low 20s.

SATURDAY ... Some rain at first mainly central to northern counties, but gradually clearing through the day, hazy or foggy in some areas especially west coast, somewhat cooler for most, lows near 12 C and highs near 16 C but parts of the southeast may recover to 19-20 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, some showery outbreaks of rain, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

MONDAY ... Becoming rather windy from the west, veering northwest in Connacht, showers, some squally in the north, lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C south, 14 C north.

OUTLOOK ... Rather cool for Ulster and parts of Leinster, closer to normal values elsewhere, with a generally W-NW flow, some showers, some sunny intervals each day, and possibly a return to settled weather late in the week as high pressure will try to recover from being pushed away early in the week by the strong northwesterly flow (that will really be aimed more at the UK, North Sea and central Europe by mid-week).

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Another warm, dry spell developing over the west, likely to peak Friday but today pleasantly warm near 22 C in many parts of western Canada and the northwest U.S. ... remnants of a very persistent upper low are drifting east now into New England later today, bringing heavy showers and a few thunderstorms, and ending a warm spell there, although only slightly cooler at first. Ophelia, now recovered to tropical storm status, is heading just to the east of Bermuda and then on to Newfoundland. Philippe is "messing around" in the Sargasso Sea doing very little other than redistributing floating seaweed.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was a crisp sunny "fall" day with a high of about 18 C. Clear and chilly this evening but warming up tomorrow (Thursday).

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 30 September, 2011
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TODAY ... Western counties, heavy downpours becoming thundery in some places, 10-20 mms with potential for 30 mms locally ... temperatures steady near 15 C in the rain, brighter by late afternoon or evening, but some hill fog developing ... eastern counties, starting warm and hazy with some sunshine, then cloudy, highs 19-22 C, light rain spreading in except some places near east coast may remain dry, 3-7 mms rain by late afternoon and evening, turning slightly cooler then. Winds generally SSE 10-20 mph but becoming variable in the rainfall and light northeast towards any clearing trend later.

TONIGHT ... Further outbreaks of showery light rain but not as heavy as today, and also becoming more confined to Ulster and north Leinster, but any clearing trend leading to low cloud and fog, then spotty light rain again for central counties, lows about 12 C for most, 7-9 C northwest.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, some showers or outbreaks of moderate rain, heavier around central and northeast counties, still rather warm in southeast with highs 17-19 C, closer to 15 C west and north, with some brighter conditions developing in western Mayo to Donegal.

SUNDAY ... Further cloud and showers, but also a few brighter intervals, lows generally 8-10 C (a bit cooler in parts of northwest, milder in southeast) ... highs 15-18 C, light and variable winds generally.

MONDAY ... Becoming breezy from west, windy at times far north (20-40 mph) and showery, remaining quite mild to warm in south, cooler far north, lows near 8 C and highs 14-18 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showery, cool especially north. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... More settled once high pressure rebuilds near the south coast, may remain unsettled north. Temperatures may recover slightly towards 18-19 for highs, although nights could be a lot cooler than this current warm spell.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Friday will be a very warm day in many western regions, with highs 27-30 C expected in parts of southern BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Montana. Also rather warm in the northeast U.S. with one final frontal wave emanating from the Great Lakes upper low that is finally collapsing to allow a colder northerly flow there this weekend. Snow is expected north and east of Lake Superior. Chilly rain will fall further south.

Meanwhile, Ophelia has become a hurricane and may come dangerously close to Bermuda around Sunday morning.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was partly cloudy and rather warm with highs 20-22 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 1 October, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy with outbreaks of rain, becoming heavy in parts of the south this afternoon and evening. Potential flooding from 15-30 mms of rain, from central Munster northeast towards Kildare and west Dublin. Some parts of the northwest may see little rain in total and some sunny breaks. Winds generally light east to northeast. Highs 15-17 C. Some hill fog and coastal low cloud, fog or mist.

TONIGHT ... Further rain as the heavier falls move gradually northeast into Meath and then east Ulster late tonight, but with further outbreaks following across south central to east central counties. A further 10-20 mms possible. Lows 8-10 C. Some fog and mist with locally poor visibility on roads.

SUNDAY ... Rain becoming more showery and ending in most places around mid-day with some afternoon brighter intervals or sunshine. About 3-5 mms of rain on average. Highs 15-18 C. It could become rather warm inland southeast by afternoon and evening. A misty or foggy night to follow with lows around 7-9 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, rather warm for most, winds SW 15-30 mph, isolated showers south and central, but cloudy with more frequent showers in the north, winds there stronger from the west by afternoon and evening (25-45 mph). Highs 16-19 C south but 14-16 C north.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, breezy (WSW 15-30 mph), lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy to windy, periods of rain developing (remnants of Hurricane Ophelia may be involved), lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Models tend to divide into two camps around mid-week, some want to continue a rather warm "zonal" flow with high pressure trying to reassert itself across the south, others are showing a trend to cool, blustery northwest winds. Some sort of compromise, cloudy with showers, and near normal temperatures, might be the eventual outcome.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Friday saw highs of 30-32 C in southern Alberta and it began to warm up rapidly further east about as far east as Manitoba. The warmth covers most of the western U.S. while a strong low developing over the Great Lakes is dropping southeast and bringing a chilly almost wintry air mass south with it, replacing the warm, humid conditions over the northeast U.S. ... Ophelia has become a major hurricane and is heading just to the east of Bermuda (hopefully far enough east to spare them more than a tropical storm force northerly tonight), then on to southeast Newfoundland and into the westerlies. Remnants could be near Donegal by mid-week.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Mostly cloudy, turning cooler mid-day after a morning high near 18 C, a few brief showers in a moderate westerly.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 2 October, 2011
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TODAY ... One more pulse of rain is heading into the southwest but this one appears rather weak and may begin to break apart into showers as it crosses the central counties later this morning. Expect 2-5 mms in some places. By afternoon and evening, there may be some brighter intervals or even hazy sunshine and it may then turn somewhat warmer again inland, with fog redeveloping near the south coast. Highs will reach about 16 C on average but could be 18-20 C in a few parts of the southeast.

TONIGHT ... Extensive mist or fog developing, lows 6-9 C (10-12 C in sheltered urban and coastal locations).

MONDAY ... Far north cloudy and showery with blustery WSW winds 25-45 mph, highs near 15 C. Central and southern regions partly cloudy, isolated showers but many places dry, highs 17-20 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers, rather cool across the north, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C, somewhat milder in the south, lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C. Moderate WSW breezes 15-30 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy, breezy becoming windy (SW 25-45 mph) with showers or longer intervals of rain, from remnants of Ophelia passing north of Donegal. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy, showery, turning somewhat cooler, lows near 9 C and highs near 14 C. Winds veering more westerly becoming WNW 20-40 mph.

OUTLOOK ... Partly cloudy to overcast, rather cool, showers heavier in Connacht and Ulster, winds generally northwest, but some chance that a warmer, dry spell would develop around the end of next weekend and into the first part of the following week.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Many parts of western Canada turned colder on Saturday although the warmth held on in southern Manitoba and across the north central U.S. ... quite chilly across the Great Lakes and inland northeast, some highs around 10 C, snow flurries further north near Lake Superior. Ophelia, at cat-4 intensity, fortunately tracked just far enough east of Bermuda to avoid major impacts although some very large waves and swells are rolling in there from the northwest. Winds reached about 50-60 mph in gusts.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, damp with some mist and fog, high of about 15 C on Saturday.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 3 October, 2011
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TODAY ... Northern counties will see mostly cloudy skies, frequent showers or periods of rain, and blustery WSW winds at 25-45 mph, with highs 13-15 C.

Central and southern counties will have some sunshine at times, cloudy intervals, with westerly breezes at 15-25 mph; later on some light showers at least into central western districts, elsewhere it could remain largely dry, and it will be rather warm with highs of 18-20 C, possibly 20-22 C inland southeast.

TONIGHT ... Showers gradually ending, breezy (WSW 15-30 mph), lows around 7 C although closer to 10 C west coast.

TUESDAY ... Bright and breezy with some decent sunshine for most, and only a slight risk of isolated showers mainly for coastal northwest. Winds WSW about 20-30 mph, and highs around 17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy with showers or periods of rain, winds SW 25-45 mph, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY ... Turning quite cool in westerly to northwesterly winds 30-50 mph, squally showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C north to 14 C south. Risk of hail and even a bit of snow on higher summits of Connacht, Donegal.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, breezy from northwest, still rather cool, and a few more showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Milder, possibly quite warm by Sunday again, rain confined to north except for a period overnight between Saturday and Sunday, winds southwest and moderate.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Warm in the west-central U.S. and near the Canada-U.S. border but cooler in most other parts of western Canada this past weekend. Rather chilly in the eastern states, meanwhile rapidly decaying Hurricane Ophelia is heading for the southeast part of Newfoundland where it should rush through mid-day as a tropical storm.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny periods at first on Sunday, then cloudy, rain arrived after dark. Highs about 15 C. Feels quite "autumnal" now, but leaves have only begun to change around here.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 4 October, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy with some weak sunshine at times getting past mainly higher cloud layers, but then thicker cloud in the west later on with sporadic light rain setting in there ... reasonably mild, 15-17 C, winds backing to become SSW 20-40 mph in the west by evening, otherwise 15-30 mph.

TONIGHT ... Periods of rain and strong southwest winds 25-45 mph, rainfalls about 10-15 mms north, 5-10 mms south ... lows 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Morning showers then variable cloud with further showers developing, some rather heavy and squally ... winds WSW 30-50 mph ... highs about 15 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy and turning colder with hail mixed with rain showers at times, blustery, winds WNW 30-50 mph, and a slight risk of snow falling on higher summits of the northwest ... lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C for most regions, 14 C southeast.

FRIDAY ... Continuing windy and rather cool with a few more showers, lows about 5-7 C and highs 13-15 C, winds WNW 20-40 mph (backing to SW later).

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, milder, rain spreading into north by afternoon and then for a time into other regions overnight into Sunday morning. Lows around 5 C and highs 16-18 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers ending, mild, lows near 10 C and highs near 18 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The warmest regions span most of the interior west while the west coast is cool and showery. Further east, strong northerly winds and rather cold for early October. A strong coastal storm is developing today off New England and this will bring gales and wind-driven rain to eastern Canada by tomorrow. Ophelia is now extratropical and heading for northern Scotland, while Philippe refuses to quit and even hints at becoming a minimal hurricane after about ten days of being a wandering tropical storm. Its location is well southeast of Bermuda about to head north slowly in the general direction of the western Azores.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, cool, spits of rain at times, not much measurable accumulation ... highs about 15 C (Monday 3rd).

Just to clarify, some headlines in the tabloids are talking about remnants of Hurricane Ophelia "smashing" Britain, but in reality Wednesday is likely to be a moderately windy day with gusts to about 60 mph in the most exposed parts of northwest Ireland and perhaps 70 mph in a few parts of Scotland. Hardly a storm to raise the red flags for, but I'm keeping an eye on it anyway.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 5 October, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, occasional showers, blustery SW winds 25-45 mph with highs near 17 C for most, some places reaching 19-20 C inland southeast, and rainfalls 3-5 mms. However, the far north and in particular Mayo, Sligo and Donegal will see stronger winds at times with more chance of squally showers (winds WSW 35-55 mph), and highs will be 14-15 C there.

TONIGHT ... Turning sharply colder with westerly winds 35-55 mph, local gusts to 60 mph near Atlantic coast, squally showers becoming mixed with hail at times, possible thunder ... lows 6-8 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy and cold with passing blustery showers of rain and hail, risk of snow on higher summits mainly northwest, highs 12-15 C with some readings near 10 C mid-day in northwest (sea level), winds WNW 40-60 mph.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, further showers, not as cold or windy but still quite chilly with winds WNW 20-40 mph, lows near 5 C and highs near 15 C south.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals in the south, periods of rain across the north becoming heavier overnight into Sunday. Lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C. Winds becoming southwest 15-30 mph.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, mild, breezy, a few more showers mainly in the north, highs 15-18 C.

MONDAY ... Windy, showers, turning a bit colder again, highs near 15 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Very warm in central regions as far north as central Manitoba, highs 25-28 C, southerly winds. Further west, mainly cloudy, showers. Eastern regions, meanwhile, chilly in a northerly flow that is becoming very strong today in New England and parts of eastern Canada as low pressure deepens near the south coast of Newfoundland. Heavy rains in parts of eastern Canada as a result.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, some brief sunny intervals, showers by late afternoon and evening, highs about 15 C (Tues 4th).

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 6 October, 2011
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TODAY ... Windy and cold with passing showers of rain or hail, some thunder, and risk of snow at higher elevations. Winds WNW 35-55 mph for most, gusts to 65 mph on exposed northwest coasts. Rainfalls 2-5 mms. Highs 11-14 C, mildest in the south and east.

(slight risk of a weak tornado or funnel clouds)

TONIGHT ... Continued windy and cold with a few more blustery showers, hail quite likely with these. Winds WNW 25-45 mph. Lows 6-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, afternoon sunny periods, a few showers especially for Connacht and Ulster, not as cold or windy but still quite chilly with winds WNW 20-40 mph, highs near 15 C south.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals in the south, periods of rain across the north becoming heavier overnight into Sunday. Lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C. Winds becoming southwest 15-30 mph.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, mild, breezy, a few more showers mainly in the north, lows 9-11 C, highs 15-18 C.

MONDAY ... Windy, showers becoming heavy from north to south, mild at first but turning somewhat colder again by late in the day, lows 10-12 C, highs near 15 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy with showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Central regions continued very warm on Wednesday, highs reached 29 C in southern Manitoba. The west coast and Rockies were cloudy with showers and seasonable temperatures. Meanwhile, the eastern states remained cool to near average but with more sunshine, but eastern Canada had strong northerly winds and heavy rain in places with temperatures barely above freezing in places.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, light rain, high of about 14 C (Wed 5th)

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Thursday 6 October 2011 _ 4:15 p.m.
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Radar indicates powerful squall line developing through Meath heading south and likely to hit parts of Kildare and Dublin within the hour, alert lasts to 6 pm and may be updated further south. Potential for wind gusts to 70 mph and large hail, thunder, torrential downpours, and local (F0-1) tornado development. Watch for updates. Would appreciate any observations as squall line passes.

(note, have started separate thread for this to widen the exposure)

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 7 October, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, and still the occasional passing shower, mainly trace amounts to 1-2 mms. There will probably be more frequent showers in Connacht than elsewhere. Winds backing from NW to WSW 20-35 mph. Not as chilly as yesterday with highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... A few clear intervals possible in the inland southeast, which may lead to fog or mist there. Most other regions cloudy, and rather mild, lows around 9-10 C, except 6-8 C southeast. Drizzle or light rain at times spreading into Connacht and then Ulster on moderate SW winds.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy and mild with a few brighter intervals in the south, drizzle or light rain across the north and intermittent light rain central, moderate SSW winds, highs 14-17 C. Heavier rain is likely to set in late in the day in the west then spreading across the north overnight.

SUNDAY ... Heavier rain ending during the morning, becoming showery with variable cloudiness or even partly sunny skies developing later, mild. Lows around 10 C and highs 15-18 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with some hazy sunshine at times in the southeast, fog developing along south coast as warmer, humid air returns, highs inland around 16-19 C. Some rain at times mainly north and west.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY ... Thanks to Hurricane Philippe which now wants to move north towards Iceland, a prolonged warm spell may develop mid-week with some sunshine in east and south, likely more cloudy west and north, with some heavier showers developing there at times. Highs 17-20 C during this spell for many inland locations.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Eventually it could turn rather cold again for a day or two, and the very long-range maps have that intriguing look of a developing cold spell although details are vague.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The central warmth has now spread to most of the eastern states and southern Ontario, but the strong coastal storm continues to bring atrocious weather to eastern Canada with gale to storm force northerly wind gusts and some heavy rainfalls in Newfoundland. Philippe has become the fifth hurricane of the season and will push steadily east of due north in the general direction of Iceland.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, 15 C on Thursday.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 8 October, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy and mild across the north with occasional light rain, 2-4 mms for most locations, highs 14-16 C. Partly cloudy and warmer in the south except near the coast due to low cloud and fog at times there. Highs inland 17-19 C. Patchy drizzle this morning but little accumulation. Moderate SW winds at 10-20 mph.

TONIGHT ... Outbreaks of light rain with fog or mist in most places, southeast could remain dry but cloudy, lows 10-12 C.

SUNDAY ... Further light rain across the north, hazy sunshine at times in the south, warm. Highs 15-17 C north, 18-20 C south.

MONDAY ... Overcast with showers becoming heavy especially in Connacht and Ulster where 10-20 mms likely. About 5-10 mms further south. Lows near 12 C and highs near 16 C.

TUESDAY ... Gradual clearing in most areas, sunny intervals, but remaining cloudy in the northwest and north. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C north to 19 C south.

WEDNESDAY ... Warm across the south, highs 18-21 C, cloudy with rain at times further north, highs 15-18 C. Moderate SW winds.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Showery and warm in most places, could remain dry in parts of the southeast. Moderate but gusty SW winds.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Turning cooler with partly cloudy skies, moderate to strong westerly winds, showers rather frequent in the north, more isolated elsewhere. Temperatures near 16 C south to 12 C north.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Colder weather is being suggested by rapid collapse of Atlantic high pressure and a northerly flow regime. Alternating cool/dry and near normal / wet spells suggested by northwest to southeast storm track.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The central warm spell has shifted more to the Great Lakes and Mississippi valley now and the cold front is becoming quite active with severe storms in Kansas. The west remains cooler and rather cloudy. The eastern Canada storm tracked slowly northeast across Newfoundland on Friday and is about to interact with Hurricane Philippe which is between there and the Azores moving northeast. The combined disturbance will head for Iceland mid-week.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday 7th was cloudy with some hazy sunshine, dry but rather humid and the maximum temperature was about 16 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 9 October, 2011
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TODAY ... Warm (or at least mild) and humid with extensive mist and fog especially northern and central counties, and near the south coast. Brighter intervals by afternoon in the inland south and east. Drizzle or light rain at times with the low cloud and fog, 2-4 mms across the north. Highs generally about 16-18 C but could reach 20 C in some parts of the southeast. Winds moderate southwest becoming somewhat lighter by afternoon as the pressure gradient slackens briefly.

TONIGHT ... Heavier bursts of rain developing across the north, 3-7 mms rain there, partly cloudy with fog developing south, very mild, lows 11-13 C.

MONDAY ... Intervals of rain becoming more showery across the north as the heavier rain moves slowly south, amounts 10-15 mms for many regions, very mild and humid, highs 17-19 C. Winds SW to W 20-30 mph.

TUESDAY ... Rain ending during the overnight hours for most, some lingering drizzle or mist but gradually brightening in all but some coastal districts, continuing mild to warm, lows near 10 C and highs near 18 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy south, east, warm, highs near 20 C. Cloudy with outbreaks of rain west and north, highs near 18 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Not much change, continued damp to wet and humid, very mild across west and north (17-19 C) and somewhat more settled in south and east (except for foggy south coast) with highs 19-21 C. An interval of heavier rain may develop during this period for west-central to northern counties.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Fresher, breezy from west, temperatures closer to normal values (14-16 C by day except perhaps 12-14 C far north). Cooler at night and better chances for sunshine in west than during this coming week. Partly cloudy with isolated showers for most in westerly winds 20-40 mph.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There are still indications of a trend to colder weather as high pressure in the Atlantic continues a trend westward and the storm track is cut off once Philippe's remnant low reaches Iceland late this week, then a more northwesterly flow pattern could develop with alternating periods of cool, dry weather and moist spells with seasonable mid-teens high temperatures.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The warm spell has now settled over the Great Lakes and inland northeast, somewhat cooler near the coast due to a southeast wind flow there. Highs of 24-27 C are widespread in regions where normals are now closer to 16 C. Seasonable temperatures further west as there is limited arctic air getting past the subarctic branch of the split jet stream. Some chance of a new tropical system near Florida, and the south coast of Mexico is bracing for a hurricane landfall from Jova.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... A fairly pleasant autumn day with light winds and some sunshine at times although mostly cloudy, highs near 17 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 10 October, 2011
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TODAY ... Overcast with a few brighter intervals in the south (inland, coast will be foggy at times). Periods of rain, mostly rather light, but occasionally moderate in Connacht and Ulster, giving 7-10 mms on average there, but only light drizzle further south with perhaps trace to 1 mm amounts. Very mild or warm, humid, highs 15-17 C north and 18-20 C inland south (16 C near south coast). Winds generally SW 20-30 mph.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming intermittent across central and northern counties, very mild, foggy especially near west and south coasts, moderate SW breezes and lows 11-13 C.

TUESDAY ... Showers ending for most, but continuing in north where 1-3 mms likely, some hazy sunshine breaking through the overcast further south, highs 16-18 C in most places and near 20 C some inland south and east locations. Winds WSW 10-20 mph. Coastal fog.

WEDNESDAY ... A few more showers in the west and north, hazy sunshine at times south and east, warm. Lows near 11 C and highs 17-21 C.

THURSDAY ... Rain mainly offshore to west but could edge a slight distance inland at times, more cloud in west and north, hazy sunshine in parts of south and east, warm. Lows near 11 C and highs 17-21 C.

FRIDAY ... More widespread showers, becoming heavy in some parts of west later, hazy and warm further east, lows near 10 C and highs 16-20 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, breezy from west, fresher with lower humidity, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, breezy from southwest to west, lows 5-8 C and highs 14-17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Models show a developing frontal boundary near the northern parts of Ireland early next week with a stronger westerly flow; it may stay rather warm for a day or two before colder air begins to seep south, and eventually this may lead to a stormy period but details are likely to keep changing on model forecasts with ten to fifteen days lead time before any really significant cold develops.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Hazy sunshine, very warm eastern half of the continent, some heavy rains in drought-stricken Texas (Austin had more rain on Sunday than they saw in four months previously). Also heavy rains and strong northeast winds in parts of Florida and Georgia as a weak tropical system gains intensity. The west is mainly cloudy and close to normal for time of year.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday was partly cloudy with good sunny periods by afternoon, highs near 17 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 11 October, 2011
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TODAY ... Periods of rain across the north, sometimes rather heavy, giving further rainfalls of 7 to 12 mms. Once again, central counties (from west to east) will see just occasional light showers and parts of the south will have only mist or patchy drizzle, with some brighter spells. It will remain quite warm with highs 17-20 C in most places, 13-17 C far north, where fog may become rather thick near coasts. Winds generally WSW 10-20 mph and veering later to WNW 15-25 mph.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, further showers mainly in the north, very mild, lows generally around 10 C to 13 C near west coast.

WEDNESDAY ... A few more showers in the west and north, hazy sunshine at times south and east, very mild north, warm in the south and east. Lows near 11 C and highs 17-21 C. Some dense coastal fog may form as winds will generally fall off to rather light and variable, allowing slight sea breeze effects on most coastlines.

THURSDAY ... Rain mainly offshore to west but could edge a slight distance inland at times, more cloud in west and north, hazy sunshine in parts of south and east, warm. Dense morning fog could linger in some places assisted by sea breeze mechanisms. Lows near 11 C and highs 17-21 C.

FRIDAY ... More widespread showers, becoming heavy in some parts of west later, hazy and warm further east, lows near 10 C and highs 16-20 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, breezy from west, fresher with lower humidity, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers or periods of rain developing later, breezy to windy from southwest to west (20-40 mph), with lows 5-8 C and highs of 14-17 C.

OUTLOOK ... The model trend is swinging back to a more robust cold outbreak to develop late this weekend and push south during next week. Some of the charts towards the end of next week appear almost cold enough for mixed wintry showers on higher ground, so keep that in the back of your mind although it could suffer a downgrade. Temperatures may actually fall below average during the week and fail to reach 10 C in the daytime with near frost conditions at night depending on cloud cover.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The pattern remains locked in although it has shifted very slightly east, with a warm high over the east coast and lower Great Lakes bringing 24-27 C highs to many of the larger cities. Rain is edging north from Georgia and South Carolina as a weak tropical system (un-named) moves north inland.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy with some showers at times, highs about 16 on our version of Thanksgiving (Monday 10th). Damp and foggy outside this evening.

Winter forecast will be available in this thread (probably as a separate post) on Thursday 13th. No sneak previews but I can promise a variety of weather scenarios in the forecast period which will cover November to March (winter is generally regarded as Dec-Jan-Feb, but as we know, can make surprise visits in November and March or even April).

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 12 October, 2011
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Note to readers ... winter forecast will be posted in this thread tomorrow before 1100h, but separately from the updated daily forecast which will appear as usual around 0700h (I hope). You'll also be able to find it on the Irish Weather Online site.

TODAY ... Rain finally ending over Ulster later this morning, and a few morning showers drifting east across Leinster, then some improving weather for many central and northern regions, staying about the same as previous days in the south, but with perhaps a touch of hazy sunshine, which will make it feel quite warm at 17-19 C, while the north reaches 15-17 C. Rather light winds today will permit local and regional scale sea breezes that could bring dense fog banks some distance inland or at least keep them drifting around near the coastlines.

TONIGHT ... Extensive fog or mist, low cloud forming, some pockets of very poor visibility, caution advised for road travel. A few clear intervals may develop for larger urban centres. Full moon occurs today. Lows around 7 to 9 in rural areas inland and 10 to 13 C around the coasts and in Dublin, Cork and other larger towns and cities.

THURSDAY ... Rain mainly offshore to west but could (as fog or drizzle) edge a slight distance inland at times, thus more cloud in west and north, while hazy sunshine develops in parts of south and east, making for quite a warm mid-day. Dense morning fog could linger in some places assisted by sea breeze mechanisms or valley inversions. Lows near 11 C and highs 17-21 C.

FRIDAY ... More widespread showers, becoming heavy in some parts of west later, hazy and warm further east, lows near 10 C and highs 16-20 C. Winds picking up gradually from the south or southeast to reach 20-25 mph at times later.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, breezy from west at 20-40 mph, fresher with lower humidity, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers or periods of rain developing later, breezy to windy from southwest to west (20-40 mph), with lows 5-8 C and highs of 14-17 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Turning quite chilly in a strong WNW flow 30-50 mph at times, a few squally showers and hail, brief thunder possible, but some sunny intervals also. Highs generally 10-12 C on Monday and 8-10 C on Tuesday, morning lows 3-5 C. Somewhat milder weather could return mid-week then a trend to cool and wet as low pressure forms and digs into the westerly flow until it becomes stalled and cut off over Ireland.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The warm, dry spell continues in parts of the northeast U.S. and lower Great Lakes while rain moves slowly north from the mid-Atlantic interior towards PA and eventually NY states. Nothing too dramatic in the western regions in a zonal flow pattern. Hurricane Jova at about cat-2 intensity appears to be making landfall at present 30-40 miles west of Manzanillo, Mexico. That city was devastated in October 1959 by the "Great Mexican Hurricane" (google it for a review on Wikipedia, the death toll was nearly two thousand and some of the deaths were caused by raging scorpions. :eek:)

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday 11th was a cloudy, damp day without much measurable rainfall, and it was around 15 C all day. We have very limited colour change so far with our deciduous trees.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 13 October, 2011
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TODAY ... Extensive mist, low cloud at first, with very light winds, but brighter spells developing with some warm sunshine in some parts of the inland south and east, just a few patches of drizzle for west and north but some chance of brighter spells there this afternoon ... highs 16-19 C and it could reach 20 C in a few places.

TONIGHT ... Mist or fog with extensive low cloud returning, drizzle becoming more frequent in west, moderate southeast winds by morning. Very mild in west with lows 11-13 C, somewhat cooler inland south to east with lows about 7-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Some morning sunshine in east, increasing and thickening cloud for most, light rain slowly developing in far west as winds become south at about 15 mph. Highs 16-19 C.

SATURDAY ... Rain becoming rather showery during the morning then partly cloudy and somewhat breezy with further isolated showers drifting inland from Atlantic. Somewhat less humid and cooler, lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY ... Rather cool and breezy (WSW 20-30 mph) with occasional showers, hail or thunder developing late, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C in south and east, 12 C north. Some rather heavy rainfalls possible by evening in Connacht and west Ulster.

MONDAY ... Windy and chilly (WNW 30-45 mph) with squally showers, some with hail and thunder, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy, outbreaks of rain, winds backing to southwest with heavier rain developing late in day, chilly. Winds rising to 30-40 mph. Lows of about 6 C and highs near 14 C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and rather cool with some chance of frost eventually but with a lot of cloud around, the main temperature story may be lower daytime readings near 10 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Warm in the northeast states with outbreaks of light rain, heavier showers from Great Lakes to Gulf of Mexico. A somewhat cool high over the Rockies will bring settled but rather cloudy weather to the high plains, and weak frontal boundaries further north will produce small amounts of sleet or snow at high elevations, rain showers in valleys. Remnants of "Jova" now dumping heavy rain in south central Mexico.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks on Wednesday, with very light showers at times. Highs near 15 C.

Winter forecast to be posted in a separate thread by 1100h today. There will be a wide variety of weather patterns in the forecast, and some indications of severe wintry conditions at times, but generally not all before Christmas like last winter. That's your "tease" -- have a look later on.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 14 October, 2011
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TODAY ... Widespread low cloud, mist and patchy drizzle for western counties, trending to hazy sunshine further east, warm for most in a moderate southerly breeze picking up later to 10-20 mph. Highs near 17 C in west and north, 19 C south and east, could touch 20 C in "hot spots."

TONIGHT ... Drizzle or light rain edging further east, low cloud or fog developing in east, mild. Lows 8-11 C.

SATURDAY ... Periods of rain, slowly moving west to east, possibly some heavier bursts later, 10-15 mms on average. Highs 14-16 C. Moderate south to southwest winds.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers more frequent in Connacht than elsewhere, cool, breezy from SW to W (20-40 mph), lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

MONDAY ... Windy and rather cold with passing showers of rain or hail, some with thunder ... snow or sleet could fall on highest summits ... winds WNW 25-45 mph ... lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C (could reach 14 C southeast and south coast).

TUESDAY ... Windy at times, showers or periods of rain, continued rather chilly with lows 7-9 C and highs 11-14 C. Winds may back to westerly for a while then return to northwest 25-45 mph. Hail or sleet could develop in parts of northwest above 300m.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... A cool to cold northwest to northerly flow will continue and there will probably be a lot of cloud, intermittent showery precipitation, and isolated ground frosts where skies clear adequately, but the temperature range for most will be in the 5 to 10 C range night and day.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The pattern starts to look very disturbed by the next weekend (23-24 Oct) and this could lead to strong winds or heavy rainfalls in a pattern that stays rather chilly even if winds do back around to a more southerly direction.

Note to readers: North American forecasts will now occupy the "North American weather" space, just to be clear, we have been mixing some reports on recently past weather with forecast suggestions here, but what you see from now on will refer to the same day as "TODAY" in Ireland, even though for western regions, it is not quite "TODAY" yet ... and the regions overlap time zones, western will overlap both Mountain and Pacific time zones.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Eastern states will see widespread rain and showers with south to southwest winds, highs near 17 C. Further west in the lower Great Lakes region, windy and showery, around 14 C, lots of turning leaves coming down especially in north where gale force winds (WSW) likely. Central regions will be sunny, ranging from a cool 12 C in northern states to about 25 C near Gulf of Mexico. Parts of central to western Canada more cloudy with outbreaks of drizzle or wet snow. Western states generally rather warm and partly cloudy, near 20 to 24 C. West coast of Canada cloudy with some rain at times, highs near 15 C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Vancouver, BC region) ... Thursday was partly cloudy with some bright intervals, and pleasantly mild, 16 C. Friday expected to be a bit more cloudy but without much change.

Winter forecast now posted in a separate thread.

slowburner

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056419308

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 15 October, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy with periods of rain, slowly clearing west to east but further showers may then develop ... rainfalls 5-10 mms for most, 10-15 mms in far north ... winds SSW veering WSW 15-30 mph ... highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, showers, cool. Winds WSW 10-20 mph. Lows around 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny breaks, showers redeveloping then periods of rain for northern counties, rainfalls 5-15 mms. Highs 12-14 C.

MONDAY ... Windy, turning colder, with squally showers at times, hail or thunder ... risk of sleet or snow on higher terrain in northwest ... lows of about 5-7 C and highs 10-13 C. Winds WNW 30-50 mph. Some higher gusts likely in Mayo and Donegal.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, cold, windy. Passing rain showers with hail, thunder at times ... snow may fall on northern hills ... lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C north to 13 C south. Winds WNW 30-50 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... Continued cold and windy with passing showers of rain or hail, winds NW 30-50 mph. Lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

OUTLOOK ... Slightly milder with outbreaks of rain, winds backing to southwest, but the cold spell may then renew with another strong outbreak, followed by strong westerly winds and frequent showers throughout. While temperatures may hit 12-15 C by about Thursday, most days beyond that will drop back to 8-12 C. In general, 2-4 degrees below normal next two weeks.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Eastern states generally cool and showery with highs 14-17 C. Stronger winds into lower Great Lakes and Quebec, to gale force at times, highs 10-12 C, hail and thunder with rain showers. Snow could fall in some northern areas. Dry in most central regions of the U.S. with some sunshine north and mostly sunny skies further south, highs near 13 C north to 25 C south. Western states generally cloudy but mild, 20-24 C. Western Canada showery with highs 7-10 C except 12-14 C coastal BC.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny intervals by afternoon, highs near 15 C on Friday. Little change expected today.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 16 October, 2011
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TODAY ... Partly cloudy, rather cool and breezy (SW 15-30 mph) with passing showers more frequent in northwest (3-5 mms there, trace to 3 mms elsewhere). Highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Becoming windy, showers mixing with hail at times in northwest, winds rising to WSW 30-50 mph by daybreak, lows near 6 C.

MONDAY ... Windy with squally showers, some with hail and thunder, and risk of snow on higher terrain. Stormy at times in Mayo, Donegal and other parts of northwest. Winds generally WSW 35-55 mph but 45-70 mph at times in northwest. Highs near 10 C north to 13 C south. Rainfalls about 5-10 mms.

TUESDAY ... Further squally showers with hail and thunder, in gale force westerly winds occasionally gusting to 60 mph, cold. Lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C but daytime readings only 7-9 C at times in north. Snow could again develop on higher northern slopes.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers becoming more confined to north and isolated, somewhat less windy (WNW 25-45 mph). Lows 3-5 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

THURSDAY ... Some sunny intervals at first, increasing cloud, winds backing to southwest, followed by rain and strong winds. Lows near 2 C with patchy ground frost, highs near 13 C.

FRIDAY ... Periods of rain, windy, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Windy and potentially stormy at times (SW to W gales possibly storm force gusts), showers or periods of rain, hail, chilly. Lows around 5 C and highs around 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, chilly, slowly warming to near normal late in month.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Windy and cool with showers in northeast states, lower Great Lakes, highs generally 10-13 C. More sunshine further south along east coast except for heavy showers in southern Florida. Highs trending up to 20 C in Carolinas and 25-28 C northern Florida. ... Central states rather cloudy north of Missouri, outbreaks of light rain, cool, highs in range of 10-15 C. South central, warm to hot and sunny, highs 25-30 C. ... Western states warm and sunny as far north as central Oregon to southern Idaho, highs 25-30 C, but cloudy with showers in Pacific northwest states, highs near 14 C. Western Canada more settled with highs 12-15 C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday 15th was sunny and cool, crisp autumn weather with highs near 12 C.