Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 20-06-2014 7:33am

Friday, 20 June, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some areas of east and south will have warm sunshine at times, with cloud more widespread in west and north. Highs generally 19-23 C with warmest readings likely inland west Munster. Sea breezes may be stronger today and make larger inroads into parts of north Connacht and Leinster. Ulster could have some areas of low cloud and drizzle with highs only 15-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, with areas of low cloud or mist, lows generally close to 10 C but could fall lower where skies remain clear (6-8 C) while staying higher near coasts (12-14 C).

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, generally not as warm as today but some places could reach 21-22 C with enough sunshine, but figure on most places being rather cloudy at least through the morning, holding highs in the range of 17-20 C. Some coastal low cloud and drizzle likely.

SUNDAY ... Possibly a slightly warmer day as more sunshine in the mix, but generally similar to Saturday, highs 18-23 C although one or two places could reach mid 20s.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will likely remain fairly warm and dry despite a mix of cloud and sunshine, highs will remain in the 18-22 C range for most.

LATER NEXT WEEK looks more unsettled and could become a bit breezy at times with the flow returning to more of a westerly pattern again, highs will generally be close to normal values 18-21 C.

The trends in Britain will be similar although now the distribution of cloud and sea breeze regimes will allow temperatures to rise a bit higher in parts of Britain over the weekend, 24-26 C is possible especially west-central. Across North America, most regions are rather unsettled with outbreaks of heavy rain in the eastern states and also in the northern plains states and parts of western Canada. My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy at first, then overcast with light rain by afternoon and evening. The highs were near 17 C.

M.T. Cranium · 21-06-2014 8:10am

Saturday, 21 June, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: Today marks the summer solstice (the highest elevation of the Sun in the mid-day sky) and while that comes around 1 p.m. the actual timing on a global scale is at 10:51 UT or 11:51 summer time.

TODAY will be partly to mostly sunny and warm in the south, mostly cloudy with sunny breaks central, and cloudy in the north with patchy coastal drizzle. Highs will range from 22 C inland south to 16 C north coast.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with some clear intervals in the south and east, lows around 8 C under clear skies, 12 C under cloud.

SUNDAY will see only slight changes with more sunshine in parts of the south, mostly cloudy north, highs once again 16 to 22 C.

MONDAY will perhaps see a bit more sunshine on average and it will remain quite warm at 17-23 C.

TUESDAY will bring increasing cloud and highs 16-21 C.

WEDNESDAY looks showery and a bit cooler with highs 17-19 C.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY will become unsettled with some steady rain likely at times, highs around 17 C.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy with highs near 19 C.

M.T. Cranium · 22-06-2014 7:46am

Sunday, 22 June, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Widespread warm sunshine with just the very slight risk of showers developing across the inland north (Leitrim-Cavan-Fermanagh most at risk), highs 20-23 C for most, 18 C in some sea breeze zones.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, mild to warm, lows 9-13 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, warm, slight chance of afternoon showers in parts of the central and southern inland counties especially near higher terrain. Highs 20-23 C.

TUESDAY ... Hazy sunshine with increasing cloud west and north, very warm away from coastal sea breezes. Highs 21-24 C but near 18 C north, some other coastal regions.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy for most, after some morning sunshine east, light rain may develop near west coast, highs near 20 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, showers, slight chance of a thunderstorm, becoming breezy (S-SW 40-70 km/hr) with highs about 18 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy to windy (W 40-70 km/hr), showers in a partly cloudy regime, highs near 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The following weekend looks slightly unsettled although there could be some sunny intervals too, highs 18-22 C.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny and warm with a high of 21 C.

M.T. Cranium · 23-06-2014 7:54am

Monday, 23 June, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy to start in parts of Munster and also in north coast Ulster, otherwise some warm sunny intervals, that might eventually replace some of the cloud, although once again, by mid-day the pattern of cloud and clear sky might be rather random. Where it's sunny, the highs will reach 22-23 C, and where mostly cloudy, 18-20 C. There is also the slight chance of a brief shower by mid-day or afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, misty or cloudy near north coast and in some inland areas too, lows 8-12 C.

TUESDAY ... Another partly cloudy, warm day with slight risk of a shower, and highs near 22 C in sunshine.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy east, mostly cloudy west and north, outbreaks of light rain likely by later in the day in coastal regions west and northwest. Morning lows near 10 C and afternoon highs near 21 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with light rain at times across the south, in a moderate east wind, highs 17-18 C. Partly cloudy further north, isolated showers, highs about 19 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy with isolated showers, some of them possibly thundery and locally heavy, but also some areas remaining dry, winds turning more to northwest with gusts to 60 km/hr. Fresher with highs 17-19 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Any cooling trend at the end of the week now looks very faint and it will easily get back into the low 20s with any sunshine next weekend, however, there may be enough cloud around to generate one or two showers as well.

The general trend in Britain will be similar although some daily highs could reach the mid 20s with enough sunshine. Meanwhile, in North America the week will start out quite unsettled in central and eastern regions, but hot and dry in most of the far west. My local weather on Sunday was pleasant despite considerable high cloud, with a high near 20 C and "watery sun" at times.

M.T. Cranium · 24-06-2014 7:35am

Tuesday, 24 June, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny intervals except for more widespread cloud in north, continued warm, risk of isolated showers mainly to north of Dublin-Galway, highs generally 20-23 C but near 18 C in north.

TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud, mild to warm, lows 10-13 C. A few showers in west and north.

WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, although some morning sunny intervals keeping temperatures rather warm in east. Showers developing across west and north. Highs 18-23 C warmest inland southeast.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, frequent showers and risk of a thunderstorm, about 5 to 10 mm rain likely, lows 10-13 C and highs 18-20 C.

FRIDAY ... Rain at times for central and southern counties, some persistent downpours and 15-20 mm rainfalls possible, winds becoming moderate east to northeast at 40-60 km/hr. Ulster and north Connacht may have a few sunny intervals and only isolated showers. Lows 7-9 C and highs generally 16-18 C.

SATURDAY ... Continued overcast with showers at times in south, winds backing to northeast then north 30-50 km/hr. Variable cloud, cool, showers possible further north. Lows 7-9 C and highs 15-18 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, a bit warmer. Highs near 20 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Warm, humid, but becoming unsettled again after perhaps one or two dry days near the end of June. Highs generally near 20 C or into the low 20s.

My local weather on Monday was overcast and light rain began this evening. The high was about 18 C.

M.T. Cranium · 25-06-2014 7:56am

Wednesday, 25 June, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, any chance of a last glimpse (for now) of sunshine would be around Wexford this morning, with generally light rain spreading slowly east, becoming somewhat heavier by afternoon and evening. Some parts of the inland west could see 5-10 mm. Highs mostly 17-20 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, light to moderate rain, 5-10 mm and lows 10-13 C. A rather strong easterly breeze will develop with gusts to 50 km/hr at times.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, frequent showers or periods of rain, although a few parts of north Leinster and east Ulster will stay reasonably dry until mid-afternoon, also for south-west the risk of a thunderstorm, about 5 to 15 mm rain likely, lows 10-13 C and highs 18-20 C.

FRIDAY ... Rain at times for central and southern counties, some persistent downpours and 15-20 mm rainfalls possible, winds becoming moderate east to northeast at 40-60 km/hr. Ulster and north Connacht may have a few sunny intervals and only isolated showers. Lows 7-9 C and highs generally 16-18 C.

SATURDAY ... Continued overcast with showers at times in south, winds backing to northeast then north 30-50 km/hr. Variable cloud, cool, showers possible further north. Lows 7-9 C and highs 15-18 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, a bit warmer. Highs near 20 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Warm, humid, but becoming unsettled again after perhaps one or two dry days near the end of June. Highs generally near 20 C or into the low 20s.

This pattern will also hold for Britain which will be seeing temperatures closer to normal values for the next few days (18-21 C) and the gradual appearance of light to moderate rain peaking Friday night for most areas. Clearing will be slower to develop over the weekend and will be delayed to Monday in southeast England. Meanwhile, North America continues to see fairly widespread outbreaks of heavy rain or thunderstorms east of the Rockies and in parts of western Canada, but the desert southwest remains hot and dry with little sign yet of the summer "monsoon" storm season there. My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy once the morning drizzle moved away, and the high was a seasonable 19 C.

M.T. Cranium · 26-06-2014 7:29am

Thursday, 26 June, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Periods of rain across most of the south this morning will spread further north, accompanied by moderate east to southeast winds 40-60 km/hr and a somewhat clammy feeling 15-17 C temperature ... meanwhile rain over Ulster will continue to drift further north, in between the two bands is a mostly cloudy but relatively dry slot that will also continue to move north, lasting a few more hours where it's now in force. Highs could reach 18 C within this zone in north central counties later on, around mid-day. Rainfalls will eventually reach 10-20 mm for many (by late evening in parts of the north).

TONIGHT ... Rain continuing, sometimes rather heavy, and chance of some thunder, 10-20 mm and lows near 13 C.

FRIDAY ... Rain becoming more showery as winds back to northeast 40-60 km/hr by afternoon or evening. Highs 15-17 C. Additional rainfall 5-15 mm heaviest in south.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers mostly across inland south, winds north backing at times to northwest 30-50 km/hr. Lows 9-12 C and highs 14-17 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, longer sunny intervals likely in Connacht, west Munster, isolated showers, lows 8-11 C and highs 16-20 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, warmer. Lows 8-12 C and highs 20-23 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... It appears that a somewhat cloudy east to northeast regime will return next week, some rain may occur at times but it should be reasonably dry overall with temperatures possibly a degree or two above normal in the low 20s daytime, 10-14 C overnight.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with a few areas of towering cumulus off to the north over higher terrain, and quite warm at 24 C.

M.T. Cranium · 27-06-2014 7:57am

Friday, 27 June, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: New moon will take place today at 0908h summer time; no eclipse will occur.

TODAY ... Rather warm and very humid, outbreaks of heavy showers or thunderstorms across Munster and south Leinster, other areas of light rain generally becoming more isolated but still the slight risk of a local thundershower, as skies become more broken. Highs 17-20 C highest around Galway and central Connacht. Some moderate wind gusts from northeast. Rainfalls across south 20-30 mm may cause spot flooding around Cork, Waterford and south Tipp, possibly Limerick. Otherwise rainfalls 5-10 mm.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, heavy showers may continue inland south, becoming rather misty or foggy, lows 12-15 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers mostly across inland south, winds north backing at times to northwest 30-50 km/hr. Lows 9-12 C and highs 14-17 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, longer sunny intervals likely in Connacht, west Munster, isolated showers, lows 8-11 C and highs 16-20 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, warmer. Lows 8-12 C and highs 20-23 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, warm, lows 8-12 C and highs 21-24 C.

OUTLOOK ... Mostly cloudy later in the week, continuing warm, outbreaks of light rain or drizzle mainly west and north as a southwest to westerly flow develops.

My local weather on Thursday was mostly sunny but cloud increased during the late afternoon leading to some heavy showers this evening. Highs were close to 23 C.

M.T. Cranium · 28-06-2014 7:30am

Saturday, 28 June, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, most places dry but unfortunately this may not include most people, as rain appears to be developing north of Dublin this morning, could turn rather showery in the capital region before mid-day (5-10 mm potential). The inland south is also more likely to see scattered showers later on, and eventually some showers could develop in north Connacht. Despite all this, a few locations will have long sunny intervals and a dry day. Highs 16-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, showers ending in most regions. Rather cool before sunrise with lows 6-9 C but expect 12-15 C as your morning temperatures (sunrise being a lot earlier than most people start their day especially on a Sunday).

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy with just isolated showers, most places dry. Highs around 18 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... These should be mainly dry, if rather cloudy days, with best chances for sunshine in counties around Donegal Bay and Galway. There is some chance of rain at times near the south coast, a lot of the guidance keeps this offshore but some models bring it onto land. Highs for most places will be 19 or 20 C, 21-22 possible in parts of Connacht.

OUTLOOK ... Increasing cloud in most places on Wednesday followed by showers or periods of rain, stronger westerly winds than we've seen for some time (at least a month) gusting to 70 km/hr and turning a bit cooler by end of the week (16-17 C). A long dry interval may follow this disturbance as guidance shows high pressure building over the eastern Atlantic. This pattern could be fairly warm too although so far no indications of unusual heat.

Will update other forecasts tomorrow, meanwhile my local weather on Friday was cloudy with light rain, highs near 18 C.

M.T. Cranium · 29-06-2014 7:53am

Sunday, 29 June, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny intervals this morning, becoming partly to mostly cloudy with a few isolated showers, slight risk of thunder ... anything that forms will likely drift south ... highs 17-19 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, cool. Lows 6-10 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, just a slight chance of an isolated shower mainly over higher parts of Connacht and west Munster. Highs 19-22 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy across the south, rain at times near southwest coast, but otherwise most parts of Ireland will be partly cloudy to sunny, highs 18-22 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, some rain likely by late in the day west and north, but dry elsewhere, highs 19-23 C.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY will be breezy to windy at times (from a SW to W direction) and showery, with some briefly heavy falls likely in western counties, highs around 17 C. Looks as though two rather active fronts will pass during this period, the second one over the weekend 5th-6th could bring some rather cool daytime conditions before a gradual shift to more settled and eventually warmer conditions in July.

Similar trends for Britain, meanwhile North America has widespread heavy rains in east and across parts of western Canada, while the western half of the U.S. is very warm and mostly dry. My local weather on Saturday was cloudy, with occasional light showers or drizzle, and highs near 18 C.

M.T. Cranium · 30-06-2014 7:34am

Monday, 30 June, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy at first, sunny intervals developing away from the south coast and some parts of the northwest, chance of rain brushing past the southwest coast around early afternoon, and otherwise just a slight chance of an isolated shower mainly over higher parts of Connacht and west Munster. Highs 19-22 C.

TONIGHT ... Clearing but some low cloud or fog patches, mist developing later, lows 6-9 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy intervals across the south, otherwise most parts of Ireland will be partly cloudy to sunny, highs 18-22 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, some rain likely by late in the day west and north, but dry elsewhere, morning lows 7-10 C, afternoon highs 19-23 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm especially inland south and east including coastal districts in a brisk southwest wind, lows 7-12 C and highs 18-24 C warmest in southeast.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY will be breezy to windy at times (from a SW to W direction) and showery, with some briefly heavy falls likely in western counties, highs 17-21 C Friday, 16-20 C Saturday and 15-18 C Sunday as it turns rather cool for a day or two.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Gradually becoming warmer again, another dry spell may develop after the 7th.

My local weather on Sunday was cloudy with sunny breaks, scattered light showers, and highs near 20 C.

M.T. Cranium · 01-07-2014 7:42am

Tuesday, 1 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly sunny and warm, just a very slight chance of a shower in some parts of the northwest this afternoon. Highs 19-24 C warmest inland south, central and east.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals for south and east, increasing cloud west and north, mild. Lows 11-13 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, some rain likely by late in the day west and north, but dry elsewhere, morning lows 7-10 C, afternoon highs 19-23 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm especially inland south and east including coastal districts in a brisk southwest wind, lows 7-12 C and highs 18-24 C warmest in southeast.

FRIDAY .. Breezy or windy, showers turning to periods of rain, embedded thunderstorms possible. Lows 10-14 C and highs 17-20 C. Winds from south to southwest (veering westerly late in the day) gusting to 70-90 km/hr by late afternoon or evening (strongest in exposed coastal districts). Rainfalls of about 10-15 mm on average.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, passing showers, some prolonged in north, brisk west to northwest winds and feeling much cooler, lows 11-13 C and highs about 15-18 C. Further rainfalls of about 5-10 mm. Winds WNW 40-70 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, showers, breezy from W to NW, and continuing rather cool, lows 9-12 C and highs 15-18 C.

OUTLOOK ... A gradual improving trend next week as high pressure slowly builds to west, leading to a dry spell with near normal temperatures that may eventually reach mid 20s again.

Just one note from the North American forecast file, the first tropical disturbance of the season has formed northeast of Miami FL and is expected to evolve into Tropical Storm "Arthur" by mid-week. This will likely meander east of Florida then move north towards North Carolina.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and warmer at 23 C. Today is a national holiday here which means I will be doing what I normally do while everyone else does nothing.

M.T. Cranium · 02-07-2014 8:11am

Wednesday, 2 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, some rain likely at times, becoming heavier by mid-day west and north, but it may remain dry elsewhere, afternoon highs 19-23 C, warmest inland south.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy intervals, a few showers across north, lows 10-14 C except 7-10 C inland south where skies may remain partly cloudy.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm especially inland south and east including coastal districts in a brisk southwest wind, and highs 18-24 C warmest in southeast.

FRIDAY .. Breezy or windy, showers turning to periods of rain, embedded thunderstorms possible. Lows 10-14 C and highs 17-20 C. Winds from south to southwest (veering westerly late in the day) gusting to 70-90 km/hr by late afternoon or evening (strongest in exposed coastal districts). Rainfalls of about 10-15 mm on average.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, passing showers, some prolonged in north, brisk west to northwest winds and feeling much cooler, lows 11-13 C and highs about 15-18 C. Further rainfalls of about 5-10 mm. Winds WNW 40-70 km/hr backing to SW by evening. It may become rather stormy across Donegal, Mayo, Sligo and nearby parts of other counties by Saturday evening.

SUNDAY ... Heavy showers during the overnight or early morning hours, then becoming partly cloudy to overcast, showers, breezy from W to NW, gusting to 70 km/hr, and continuing rather cool, lows 9-12 C and highs 15-18 C.

OUTLOOK ... A gradual improving trend next week as high pressure slowly builds to west, leading to a dry spell with near normal temperatures that may eventually reach mid 20s again.

In Britain, a similar trend will develop with most of the rain confined to central and northern regions until later in the weekend. In North America, heavy showers and thunderstorms are moving slowly east towards the east coast, with an improving trend in central regions and very hot, dry weather in the far west. My local weather reflects that as we enjoyed hot sunshine here on Tuesday with highs locally near 30 C and further inland mid-30s.

M.T. Cranium · 03-07-2014 7:58am

Thursday, 3 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy south to overcast in north, warm especially inland south and east including coastal districts from Dublin south to Wexford in a brisk southwest wind with a few gusts to 50 km/hr, and highs 18-23 C warmest in southeast. A few showers are likely over parts of the far north around late morning and early afternoon with the passage there of a weak front. Just patchy drizzle in a few places further south.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, very mild, rain developing across the far west in a strong south to southwest wind. Lows 12-16 C.

FRIDAY .. Breezy or windy, showers turning to periods of rain, embedded thunderstorms possible, and highs 17-20 C. Winds from south to southwest (veering westerly late in the day) gusting to 70-90 km/hr by late afternoon or evening (strongest in exposed coastal districts). Rainfalls of about 10-15 mm on average.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud although some longer sunny intervals east during the morning hours, passing showers, some prolonged in north and west, brisk west to northwest winds and feeling much cooler, lows 11-13 C and highs about 15-18 C. Further rainfalls of about 5-10 mm. Winds WNW 40-70 km/hr backing to SW by evening. It may become rather stormy across Donegal, Mayo, Sligo and nearby parts of other counties by Saturday evening and through the overnight hours.

SUNDAY ... Heavy showers during the overnight or early morning hours, then becoming partly cloudy to overcast, showers, breezy from W to NW, gusting to 70 km/hr, and continuing rather cool, lows 9-12 C and highs 15-18 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, just a few isolated showers, breezy with lows 8-11 C and highs 16-20 C.

TUESDAY ... A few showers, highs 16-20 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Remaining mostly cloudy and somewhat unsettled next week but indications of a long dry interval to follow in mid-late July, this would likely become progressively warmer too.

Britain will see similar trends with the warm, dry spell ending in the south late Friday, and for North America, main focus of interest is developing minimal hurricane Arthur, expected to make one landfall tonight in eastern North Carolina then continue up the Atlantic coast offshore past Long Island and Cape Cod into Nova Scotia late Saturday, then back to tropical storm intensity. This will spread a heavy rainfall of 100-150 mm up the east coast over the July 4th holiday weekend. The west remains very hot and dry. My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and very warm although with some cooling from the sea breeze at 27 C, still into the mid-30s inland.

M.T. Cranium · 03-07-2014 7:58am

Thursday, 3 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy south to overcast in north, warm especially inland south and east including coastal districts from Dublin south to Wexford in a brisk southwest wind with a few gusts to 50 km/hr, and highs 18-23 C warmest in southeast. A few showers are likely over parts of the far north around late morning and early afternoon with the passage there of a weak front. Just patchy drizzle in a few places further south.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, very mild, rain developing across the far west in a strong south to southwest wind. Lows 12-16 C.

FRIDAY .. Breezy or windy, showers turning to periods of rain, embedded thunderstorms possible, and highs 17-20 C. Winds from south to southwest (veering westerly late in the day) gusting to 70-90 km/hr by late afternoon or evening (strongest in exposed coastal districts). Rainfalls of about 10-15 mm on average.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud although some longer sunny intervals east during the morning hours, passing showers, some prolonged in north and west, brisk west to northwest winds and feeling much cooler, lows 11-13 C and highs about 15-18 C. Further rainfalls of about 5-10 mm. Winds WNW 40-70 km/hr backing to SW by evening. It may become rather stormy across Donegal, Mayo, Sligo and nearby parts of other counties by Saturday evening and through the overnight hours.

SUNDAY ... Heavy showers during the overnight or early morning hours, then becoming partly cloudy to overcast, showers, breezy from W to NW, gusting to 70 km/hr, and continuing rather cool, lows 9-12 C and highs 15-18 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, just a few isolated showers, breezy with lows 8-11 C and highs 16-20 C.

TUESDAY ... A few showers, highs 16-20 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Remaining mostly cloudy and somewhat unsettled next week but indications of a long dry interval to follow in mid-late July, this would likely become progressively warmer too.

Britain will see similar trends with the warm, dry spell ending in the south late Friday, and for North America, main focus of interest is developing minimal hurricane Arthur, expected to make one landfall tonight in eastern North Carolina then continue up the Atlantic coast offshore past Long Island and Cape Cod into Nova Scotia late Saturday, then back to tropical storm intensity. This will spread a heavy rainfall of 100-150 mm up the east coast over the July 4th holiday weekend. The west remains very hot and dry. My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and very warm although with some cooling from the sea breeze at 27 C, still into the mid-30s inland.

M.T. Cranium · 04-07-2014 7:32am

Friday, 4 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Blustery showers moving east this morning, risk of thunder, followed by partial clearing and then some renewed showers or periods of rain, winds generally from SW at 40-60 km/hr with some higher gusts, and total rainfalls 10-15 mm with highs around 18 to 20 C.

TONIGHT ... Light rain ending then partly cloudy, breezy from west at 30-50 km/hr, lows 9-12 C.

SATURDAY ... Morning sunny intervals, then increasing cloud, showers or longer periods of rain developing (late morning west, afternoon east), wind gusts from WSW 40-70 km/hr, highs 18-20 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, breezy or windy, rather cool, passing showers. Lows 9-12 C and highs 15-18 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, showers developing, some may become thundery, lows 8-11 C and highs 18-21 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, a clearing trend by later in the day, lows 8-10 C and highs 18-21 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Slight chance of showers in north but otherwise it looks fairly settled for most regions by mid-week, highs generally near 20 C but possibly into low 20s inland south. A longer and perhaps warmer dry spell could then follow.

UPDATES on Hurricane Arthur -- The cat-2 storm is currently passing slightly inland over coastal North Carolina with gusts to 90 knots (100 mph) recorded in the past few hours. It should soon move back into the Atlantic and head towards Cape Cod but remaining slightly offshore, then making a second landfall in western Nova Scotia on Saturday morning as a borderline tropical storm or cat-1 hurricane, moving steadily northeast towards Greenland where it should die out around a week from now. No direct effects are expected in Ireland as high pressure over the east-central Atlantic holds firm around then.

Meanwhile, my local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy and somewhat cooler than previous days at 22 C.

M.T. Cranium · 05-07-2014 7:41am

Saturday, 5 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A few sunny intervals for east and south this morning, fading behind increasing cloud and scattered showers, some of them rather blustery with hail and thunder possible. Moderate SW to W winds 30-50 km/hr, 5-10 mm rain by evening, and highs 16-19 C, possibly touching 20 around Wexford.

TONIGHT ... Breezy to windy, frequent showers, some prolonged intervals of rain across the north. Lows 8-10 C and about 5-10 mm additional rainfalls, winds gusting to 70 km/hr and veering more to west or northwest.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, further showers likely, moderate westerly winds, highs about 17 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, a few showers and risk of a brief thunderstorm inland west, lows near 9 C and highs near 19 C.

TUESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, showers more isolated, lows about 8 C and highs about 20 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A warmer and drier regime will be trying to build over the south, and it may succeed to some extent, but will have trouble establishing itself over more northern counties with repeated weak frontal systems pushing in from the west. There are still some indications of a firmer high pressure influence beyond next weekend and some chance of a very warm spell developing later in the month.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Arthur looks to be ready to make the transition to a regular low pressure system over New Brunswick Canada after bringing some tropical storm force winds to western Nova Scotia between now and mid-day local times. Rainfalls of as much as 200 mm have fallen during Friday in parts of southeast Massachusetts and the storm will continue to bring 100-150 mm rainfalls to Maine and New Brunswick. ... Hot and dry across much of the central and western regions of the U.S., showery in western Canada. My local weather on Friday was cloudy with late afternoon and evening light showers, highs near 20 C.

M.T. Cranium · 06-07-2014 7:50am

Sunday, 6 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A few sunny intervals this morning, then another round of blustery showers, one or two likely to become thundery with small hail, and gusty winds at times (W'ly 40-60 km/hr). Highs 15-18 C. Rainfalls generally 3-7 mm.

TONIGHT ... Showers and moderate west to northwest winds, lows 8-11 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, showers and one or two thunderstorms possible, highs 16-20 C. Rainfalls about 2-5 mm.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, still one or two showers around mostly near the higher terrain in western counties. Morning lows 7-10 C and afternoon highs about 18-21 C.

WEDNESDAY ... A few sunny intervals, isolated showers, highs near 21 C.

OUTLOOK ... This rather bland mid-week pattern seems likely to continue through the following weekend and could try to transition to warmer and more settled weather across at least the southern half of the country.

Updates for Britain and North America to follow tomorrow, meanwhile my local weather on Saturday was dull and rather warm with very light rain that probably added up to about 1-2 mm over the day. Highs near 20 C. There were some strong tornadic storms in the Canadian prairies and wind and flood damage in the Maritime provinces from remnants of "Arthur."

M.T. Cranium · 07-07-2014 7:31am

Monday, 7 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain across western counties, 5-10 mm amounts in some parts of west Munster, otherwise 3-7 mm. This rain may become more showery further east. Highs 17-19 C, high humidity levels will produce a muggy feel to the day.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some clear intervals, showers becoming less frequent, lows 8-12 C.

TUESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sun, isolated showers more likely in parts of the inland west. Highs 19-21 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Sunny intervals, increasing cloud for west, light rain by late afternoon or evening in some western counties, lows 8-12 C and highs 19-22 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, light rain breaking to showers, highs near 21 C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... Mostly cloudy, rather warm and humid, chance of showers, highs near 22 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... I remain hopeful that warmer and more settled weather will eventually develop but the model trends seem to be stuck at the moment in a "next week maybe" sort of pattern.

Trends in Britain will be similar to Ireland with more frequent showers in central and northern regions. Temperatures will be near or slightly above normal values.

North America has said goodbye to Arthur now except for Labrador and Newfoundland, and temperatures have returned to near normal in the east, trending to very warm in central regions, unsettled across the northern tier of states and most of western Canada. My local weather on Sunday was cloudy, muggy and damp with about 5 mm of light rain, fog developed after sunset, and the high was about 19 C. We have an improving trend now as the fronts move across the Rockies.

M.T. Cranium · 07-07-2014 7:32am

Monday, 7 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain across western counties, 5-10 mm amounts in some parts of west Munster, otherwise 3-7 mm. This rain may become more showery further east. Highs 17-19 C, high humidity levels will produce a muggy feel to the day.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some clear intervals, showers becoming less frequent, lows 8-12 C.

TUESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sun, isolated showers more likely in parts of the inland west. Highs 19-21 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Sunny intervals, increasing cloud for west, light rain by late afternoon or evening in some western counties, lows 8-12 C and highs 19-22 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, light rain breaking to showers, highs near 21 C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... Mostly cloudy, rather warm and humid, chance of showers, highs near 22 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... I remain hopeful that warmer and more settled weather will eventually develop but the model trends seem to be stuck at the moment in a "next week maybe" sort of pattern.

Trends in Britain will be similar to Ireland with more frequent showers in central and northern regions. Temperatures will be near or slightly above normal values.

North America has said goodbye to Arthur now except for Labrador and Newfoundland, and temperatures have returned to near normal in the east, trending to very warm in central regions, unsettled across the northern tier of states and most of western Canada. My local weather on Sunday was cloudy, muggy and damp with about 5 mm of light rain, fog developed after sunset, and the high was about 19 C. We have an improving trend now as the fronts move across the Rockies.

M.T. Cranium · 08-07-2014 7:26am

Tuesday, 8 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A band of moderate rain is slowly moving across eastern Ulster and north Leinster, with lighter showers further south. This rain may be slow to clear the east coast and it could be wet from Drogheda to about Wicklow until mid-day, but most other regions will see partly cloudy skies with more isolated showers. Another band may form near Donegal Bay and move gradually into north Connacht and west Ulster by afternoon. One or two embedded thunderstorms are possible both this morning and later in western counties. On the other hand, some places near the south coast could have a mainly dry day. Highs will reach about 18 C but closer to 20 C near Cork and Waterford. Rainfalls of 10-15 mm are possible with the morning outbreak in eastern counties, otherwise expect about 2-5 mm in some areas.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy with some clear intervals, lows 7-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Hopefully many areas will enjoy a dry day although the east coast rainfall band is likely to be hovering just off to the east, and some light rain may approach the outer west coast at times. We'll have to fine tune this in the next forecast, but for now would say partly cloudy and about 19-21 C.

THURSDAY ... Risk of showers returning to east, parts of north, but dry across the south, lows 7-10 C and highs 18-21 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, warm, chance of showers especially east coast. Lows about 10 C and highs 19-23 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Showers becoming more frequent and turning slightly cooler, highs near 21 or 22 C Saturday and 18 C Sunday.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Guidance is very mixed at this point, but there's still some chance of improvement.

Britain today will be feeling the onset of the rainfall from eastern Ireland by afternoon or evening, but only in western districts mostly in Wales. Another area of rain over the near continent, heavy over Belgium and the Netherlands, could impact some east coast districts later as it moves north and a little west. From tomorrow on the trends will become rather wet in most of Britain as the rainfall band from today's forecast sets up across England and actually begins to drift back west at times, which concerns us for possible complications in Leinster by late Thursday or early Friday.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and very warm with highs near 29 C.

M.T. Cranium · 09-07-2014 7:35am

Wednesday, 9 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunshine will gradually fade behind high cloud in the east, and variable amounts of lower cloud further west, but it should remain dry except for some patchy drizzle near the outer west coast. Slight risk of an isolated afternoon shower elsewhere. Highs 19-23 C.

TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud, light showers developing mostly in Connacht and Ulster, lows 8-12 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals mostly in southern counties, just a few light showers mostly north, highs 20-23 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, humid, risk of showers or an isolated thunderstorm, lows near 12 C and highs near 22 C.

SATURDAY ... Some sunny intervals, increasing cloud and risk of afternoon and evening showers, some of these could become thundery in central or western inland counties. Lows near 14 C and highs near 23 C east/south, but 18-21 C west/north.

SUNDAY ... Fresher with moderate westerly breezes, passing showers, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, highs near 21 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Showers appear likely on Tuesday but after that guidance is quite scattered with some indications of a warming trend again. It appears that the current pattern featuring a weak trough over the eastern Atlantic is not very stable and could be replaced by a ridge at any point beyond 4-6 days. Signals are generally rather weak in the Atlantic and European sectors, and so we are seeing a lot of variability in model output from day to day.

Not much has changed in terms of the Britain or North America forecasts, it remains quite hot in western regions of the U.S. and border regions of western Canada, and we enjoyed hot sunshine again on Tuesday with max 28 C.

M.T. Cranium · 10-07-2014 7:31am

Thursday, 10 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks possible in southern counties, patchy light rain mostly confined to northern counties, and rather warm and humid with highs 18-21 C. Rainfalls generally trace to 2 mm.

TONIGHT ... Hazy, some fog patches, feeling close with lows 11-14 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, warm, risk of a few showers or thunderstorms developing but generally dry with isolated 3-5 mm amounts. Highs 20-23 C.

SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud during the morning east, overcast much of the day elsewhere, outbreaks of light rain developing, lows 11-14 C and highs near 20 C.

SUNDAY ... Feeling a bit fresher in a moderate westerly breeze, passing showers developing by afternoon more frequent in west, lows 11-14 C and highs 18-20 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, showers, highs near 21 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A somewhat warmer pattern may develop later in the week after a few showers pass early Tuesday, and highs could reach the mid 20s in the south, near 20 C north, with a growing risk of thunderstorms developing from weak disturbances moving northeast in an otherwise settled if rather cloudy air mass. So far this summer appears determined to stay near the middle of the pack but I continue to think that a warmer regime will develop leading to some significant heat at some point in late July and early August.

Speaking of which, we have been in heat wave conditions here in western Canada and highs inland have soared into the 30s while hitting the high 20s with a slight sea breeze and mostly sunny conditions. This is rather early for us to get this sort of spell, more typical of late July and early August around here.

M.T. Cranium · 11-07-2014 7:49am

Friday, 11 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy but rather warm, risk of a few showers or thunderstorms developing but generally dry with isolated 3-5 mm amounts, these more likely inland west morning and across the north by afternoon. Highs 20-23 C. Some lingering mist or fog near outer coastal districts.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, misty with outbreaks of light rain developing during the later portions of the night. Lows 11-14 C.

SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud during the morning east, overcast much of the day elsewhere, outbreaks of light rain developing in two pulses with some clearing possible mid-day between these pulses, with highs near 20 C.

SUNDAY ... Feeling a bit fresher in a moderate westerly breeze, passing showers developing by afternoon more frequent in west, lows 11-14 C and highs 18-20 C. There could be some decent sunshine with isolated heavier showers possibly becoming thundery.

MONDAY ... Cloudy west, increasing cloud east, showers developing with some heavier rain possible in north by evening, highs near 21 C.

TUESDAY ... Gradual clearing, after some morning showers, highs near 21 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Warm and humid, possibly reaching 23-26 C inland south and east at times, risk of a few thundery showers developing later in the week.

Will update Britain and North America tomorrow, generally very warm to hot in most parts of the U.S. and southern Canada and especially out west, my local weather was quite hot on Thursday with a high of 30 C.

Note: Full moon occurs Saturday at 12:25 summer time, but the moon will appear full tonight, in fact it does already here with more than 30 hours to go.

M.T. Cranium · 12-07-2014 8:16am

Saturday, 12 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: Full moon occurs today at 12:25 summer time, but you would need to be in the Pacific regions to see it during the overnight hours, for yours truly the event takes place around sunrise. As the Moon will soon be at perigeee, this is considered a "supermoon" although the August 10th event is even closer.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and some of the cloud will be quite low-based giving mist and fog over some higher terrain, then a few brighter intervals possible mid-day in the inland south, with outbreaks of light rain developing in two pulses with the partial clearing possible mid-day between these pulses, highs near 20 C.

TONIGHT ... Light showers ending, partial clearing, lows 11-14 C.

SUNDAY ... Feeling a bit fresher in a moderate westerly breeze, passing showers developing by afternoon more frequent in west, with highs 18-20 C. There could be some decent sunshine with isolated heavier showers possibly becoming thundery.

MONDAY ... Cloudy west, increasing cloud east, showers developing with some heavier rain possible in north by evening, highs near 21 C.

TUESDAY ... Gradual clearing, after some morning showers, highs near 21 C and possibly warmer in parts of west Munster (23-24 C).

WEDNESDAY ... Hazy sunshine, risk of low cloud or light rain confined to parts of west and north, very warm and humid with lows 12-16 C and highs 21-25 C.

THURSDAY ... Continued very warm with isolated showers or thunderstorms developing, lows 14-18 C and highs 22-27 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers or thunderstorms in a few locations, very warm. Highs near 24 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Around next weekend it may turn slightly cooler again with more widespread showers, highs 19-23 C.

These trends will generally apply in Britain although some parts of southern England could see highs closer to 30 C by mid-week. A pulse of heavy thunderstorms may move in from France towards the end of the week.

My local weather on Friday continued sunny and hot with highs 28-32 C in the city and 35-40 C further inland. Some daily records are being set around the province.

Note: Full moon occurs Saturday at 12:25 summer time

M.T. Cranium · 13-07-2014 7:41am

Sunday, 13 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy to start, still a few areas of drizzle but mainly dry and feeling a bit fresher in a moderate westerly breeze, passing showers developing by afternoon more frequent in west, with highs 18-20 C. There could be some sunshine around mid-day with isolated heavier showers developing, possibly becoming thundery in a few places.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals, a little cooler with lows 7-10 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy west, increasing cloud east, showers developing with some heavier rain possible by evening, highs near 21 C. Rainfalls 10-20 mm heaviest across south-central where some thunder is likely by evening.

TUESDAY ... Gradual clearing, after some morning showers, highs near 21 C and possibly warmer in parts of west Munster (23-24 C). Some light rain may develop during the night and this could persist into Wednesday morning.

WEDNESDAY ... Hazy sunshine, risk of low cloud or light rain confined to parts of west and north, very warm and humid with lows 12-16 C and highs 21-25 C.

THURSDAY ... Continued very warm with isolated showers or thunderstorms developing, lows 14-18 C and highs 22-27 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers or thunderstorms in a few locations, very warm. Highs near 24 C. Some risk of heavy or severe storms which we will no doubt be addressing in more detail if this pattern develops.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Around next weekend it may turn slightly cooler again with more widespread showers, highs 19-23 C.

This is also basically the pattern expected in Britain, although it could be closer to 30 C by mid-week in parts of southern England and separate areas of thunderstorm activity could move into the southeast from France.

Meanwhile, across the U.S., some heavy rainfall has developed in parts of the Midwest and lower Great Lakes, but it remains hot and humid in most areas of the east, trending to hot and dry in the west, with just a few storms over higher terrain in the southwest. My local weather continues sunny and hot with the high on Saturday reaching 32 C. About 150 kms inland two locations hit 39 C setting new records for the date (all-time records around these parts range from 35 C in the city to 44 C in some interior valleys). Meanwhile, the weather for the World Cup final in Rio de Janeiro is likely to be cloudy with the possibility of occasional light rain and not overly hot, around 21-23 C but with fairly high humidity.

M.T. Cranium · 14-07-2014 7:59am

Monday, 14 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Morning showers with risk of a brief thunderstorm in parts of east Ulster and Leinster. Becoming partly cloudy from the west, with isolated showers developing later, but some parts of the south likely to remain dry. Highs 18-21 C with moderate southwest winds 30-50 km/hr at times.

TONIGHT ... Clear patches with fog or mist possible towards dawn, lows 8-12 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, warm, increasing cloud by afternoon, periods of rain developing in west by evening. Rather humid. Highs 21-24 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Morning showers in parts of Munster and Leinster, but locally heavy rain in Connacht and Ulster, followed by a partial clearance, very warm and muggy, lows 14-18 C and highs 22-25 C although could be held to 19-20 C in Ulster and north Connacht. Rainfalls will range from 5 mm southeast to 25 mm north.

THURSDAY ... Very warm, humid, showers and thunderstorms developing, some bursts of heavy and possibly thundery rain could affect east and south by late in the day. Lows 15-19 C and highs 23-26 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers and thunderstorms, still quite warm although temperatures likely to fall somewhat during rain with some locally heavy rainfalls to 40 mm possible, 10-20 mm more generally, lows 15-19 C and highs 21-24 C.

SATURDAY ... Widespread showers and thunderstorms. Lows near 17 C and highs near 23 C. At some point between late Thursday and mid-day Saturday it would appear likely that some severe storm activity will develop, perhaps more than once. Local urban and small stream flooding could result.

SUNDAY ... Some improvement appears likely in a fresher westerly flow but showers could redevelop. Lows near 14 C and highs near 21 C.

OUTLOOK for NEXT WEEK ... Very warm at times, unsettled although details are rather different from one model to another. Highs could reach the mid to high 20s and there could be further heavy to severe storm activity.

Forecasts for Britain

In general, the above trends will follow a slightly later timetable across Britain, for example today's showers and thunderstorms could be heavier there because they will hit near the peak of daytime heating. Later in the week various parts of Britain could be slightly warmer yet with highs approaching 30 C and while western districts will share in the same frontal disturbances as Ireland, eastern portions could import some severe storms from northern France around Friday.

Forecasts for North America

Very hot in parts of the west including British Columbia and Alberta, isolated thunderstorms but most places dry. Heavy showers and storms across the central states to the mid-Atlantic coast, separating hot humid air over the southeast from a less humid, rather cool air mass that has spread south from northern Canada over the weekend. Downright chilly in some parts of the eastern prairies and northern plains states, where highs may not break 20 C.

My local weather remained sunny and hot on Sunday with a high of about 32 C. There are some weak thundershowers in the area but they seem to be dying out just before reaching us from the southeast.

M.T. Cranium · 14-07-2014 7:59am

Monday, 14 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Morning showers with risk of a brief thunderstorm in parts of east Ulster and Leinster. Becoming partly cloudy from the west, with isolated showers developing later, but some parts of the south likely to remain dry. Highs 18-21 C with moderate southwest winds 30-50 km/hr at times.

TONIGHT ... Clear patches with fog or mist possible towards dawn, lows 8-12 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, warm, increasing cloud by afternoon, periods of rain developing in west by evening. Rather humid. Highs 21-24 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Morning showers in parts of Munster and Leinster, but locally heavy rain in Connacht and Ulster, followed by a partial clearance, very warm and muggy, lows 14-18 C and highs 22-25 C although could be held to 19-20 C in Ulster and north Connacht. Rainfalls will range from 5 mm southeast to 25 mm north.

THURSDAY ... Very warm, humid, showers and thunderstorms developing, some bursts of heavy and possibly thundery rain could affect east and south by late in the day. Lows 15-19 C and highs 23-26 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers and thunderstorms, still quite warm although temperatures likely to fall somewhat during rain with some locally heavy rainfalls to 40 mm possible, 10-20 mm more generally, lows 15-19 C and highs 21-24 C.

SATURDAY ... Widespread showers and thunderstorms. Lows near 17 C and highs near 23 C. At some point between late Thursday and mid-day Saturday it would appear likely that some severe storm activity will develop, perhaps more than once. Local urban and small stream flooding could result.

SUNDAY ... Some improvement appears likely in a fresher westerly flow but showers could redevelop. Lows near 14 C and highs near 21 C.

OUTLOOK for NEXT WEEK ... Very warm at times, unsettled although details are rather different from one model to another. Highs could reach the mid to high 20s and there could be further heavy to severe storm activity.

Forecasts for Britain

In general, the above trends will follow a slightly later timetable across Britain, for example today's showers and thunderstorms could be heavier there because they will hit near the peak of daytime heating. Later in the week various parts of Britain could be slightly warmer yet with highs approaching 30 C and while western districts will share in the same frontal disturbances as Ireland, eastern portions could import some severe storms from northern France around Friday.

Forecasts for North America

Very hot in parts of the west including British Columbia and Alberta, isolated thunderstorms but most places dry. Heavy showers and storms across the central states to the mid-Atlantic coast, separating hot humid air over the southeast from a less humid, rather cool air mass that has spread south from northern Canada over the weekend. Downright chilly in some parts of the eastern prairies and northern plains states, where highs may not break 20 C.

My local weather remained sunny and hot on Sunday with a high of about 32 C. There are some weak thundershowers in the area but they seem to be dying out just before reaching us from the southeast.

M.T. Cranium · 15-07-2014 7:43am

Tuesday, 15 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT for heavy rainfalls and possible severe thunderstorms around Thursday night into Friday, southeast and south central inland most at risk but the activity will spread further north and west. See forecasts for details. A slight risk of severe storms will persist into Saturday.

TODAY ... Morning cloud will gradually break to allow at least some sunny intervals, and it will become warm and humid, with increasing cloud in western counties by afternoon, and periods of rain developing in west by evening. Rather humid. Highs 21-24 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming thundery and possibly heavy in some parts of Connacht and west Ulster, otherwise showery or (for southeast) drizzly. Rainfall amounts by morning will vary from 10-20 mm northwest to 1-3 mm southeast. Expect a very warm night with lows only falling to 15-18 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Morning showers in parts of Munster and Leinster, but locally heavy and possibly thundery rain continuing for a time in Connacht and Ulster, followed by a partial clearance, very warm and muggy, with highs 22-25 C in south, east and central counties, near 21 C inland west, but could be held to 18-20 C in Ulster and north Connacht. Further rainfalls after 0800h will range from 15 mm north to trace amounts in some parts of the south.

THURSDAY ... Very warm, humid, sunshine for some during the day but showers and thunderstorms developing, mostly late in the day, with some bursts of heavy and possibly thundery rain. Lows 15-19 C and highs 23-26 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers and thunderstorms, still quite warm although temperatures likely to fall somewhat during rain with some locally heavy rainfall totals to 40 mm possible, 10-20 mm more generally, lows 15-19 C and highs 21-24 C.

SATURDAY ... Widespread showers and thunderstorms. Lows near 17 C and highs near 23 C. At some point between late Thursday and mid-day Saturday it would appear likely that some severe storm activity will develop, perhaps more than once. Local urban and small stream flooding could result.

SUNDAY ... Some improvement appears likely with less extensive showers, latest indications suggest only a light and variable wind regime and some thundery showers could redevelop. Lows near 14 C and highs near 22 C inland, 20 C east coast and near 19 C west coast and parts of Ulster.

OUTLOOK for NEXT WEEK ... Very warm at times, unsettled although details are rather different from one model to another. Highs could reach the mid to high 20s and there could be further heavy to severe storm activity.

Updates for Britain: See yesterday's forecast for general details but latest guidance shows a high risk of severe storms on Saturday in addition to other activity described. In North America, the north-south split in eastern regions will intensify and spawn a rather intense cold front affecting the large cities of the eastern seaboard region later today. It remains extremely warm out west and my local weather on Monday was sunny and hot with a high of 29 C.

M.T. Cranium · 16-07-2014 7:52am

Wednesday, 16 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A few more showers, possibly thundery in southeast this morning and later in Connacht, but generally becoming mainly dry if humid, partly cloudy skies will develop and highs will reach a muggy 21-23 C.

TONIGHT ... Very warm, fog patches developing, some low cloud drifting inland from south coast, lows 15-19 C.

THURSDAY ... Very warm, humid, sunshine for some during the day but showers and thunderstorms developing, mostly late in the day, with some bursts of heavy and possibly thundery rain spreading north from Munster during the evening and overnight hours. Lows 15-19 C and highs 23-26 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers and thunderstorms, still quite warm although temperatures likely to fall somewhat during rain with some locally heavy rainfall totals to 40 mm possible, 10-20 mm more generally, lows 15-19 C and highs 21-24 C, humidex around 27 C in some parts of the inland south. The most likely area for heavy rainfalls and possible local flooding would be around Carlow and Kilkenny, and parts of counties nearby. By afternoon the main activity will likely have moved northwest into Connacht.

SATURDAY ... Widespread showers and thunderstorms. Lows near 17 C and highs near 23 C. Inland eastern counties and east Ulster could be most at risk for torrential downpours but this will probably be quite a "hit or miss" event with some areas enjoying a dry afternoon and sunshine at times. Where it is sunny, the temperatures and humidex of 26-28 C will make it feel quite sultry.

SUNDAY ... Some improvement appears likely with less extensive showers, latest indications suggest only a light and variable wind regime and some thundery showers could redevelop from the west coast later in the day. Lows near 14 C and highs near 22 C inland, 20 C east coast and near 19 C west coast and parts of Ulster.

OUTLOOK for NEXT WEEK ... Very warm at times, unsettled but some dry days for various locations too. Highs could reach the mid to high 20s and there could be further heavy to severe storm activity.

For Britain expect a very warm and muggy period upcoming with the focus of showers and thunderstorms in two areas, northwest England and western Scotland receiving the first wave of showers from Ireland, then later southeast and then east central England receiving some hefty thunderstorms from the south, in phase with those moving into Ireland, but later merging with the activity that departs Ireland around Saturday evening, by mid-day Sunday in England. How this all plays out for The Open Championship (golf) near Liverpool remains to be seen, a lot of the model depictions show rain in other parts of the country more than there, but with all this activity around there would likely be at least one rain delay more for lightning risk than the rainfall itself.

Meanwhile, across North America, severe heat continues in parts of the west, and unseasonably cool temperatures dominate in the east after today's severe storm event. My local weather was once again sunny and hot with a high of about 33 C. A location about 150 km inland (Lytton, B.C.) had a new daily record of 41.4 C and as you might expect there have been a few forest fires although the number of lightning strikes has dropped off with the departure of the previous storm complex towards Montana. It's a dry heat though.

Skies across northern B.C. and northern Alberta have widespread thick smoke from forest fires that are raging in those regions as well as further north in Yukon and the Northwest Territories. Besides the basic interest value of that report, you may begin to notice over several weeks that sunsets become more colourful in Ireland as this smoke is likely to work its way downstream at high elevations and across the Atlantic. That may take two or three weeks however.

M.T. Cranium · 17-07-2014 7:31am

Thursday, 17 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for heavy rainfalls and intense lightning, hail with a frontal system moving in from the south after midnight and spreading across many parts of Ireland on Friday. Details in forecasts. Some local flooding may develop.

TODAY ... Very warm, humid, sunshine for some during the day although rather cloudy in west, risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorms. Highs 23 to 26 C warmest inland south, central.

TONIGHT ... Heavy showers and thunderstorms developing, mostly after midnight, with some bursts of heavy and possibly thundery rain spreading north from Munster during the late evening and overnight hours. Some strong wind gusts to 65 km/hr from the east especially around Dublin and Wicklow, spreading into the central counties, and also a risk of hail. We will be monitoring for intense lightning across the south. Lows 15-19 and rainfalls in south 15-25 mm by morning. Risk of local flooding by morning.

FRIDAY ... Showers and thunderstorms, still quite warm although temperatures likely to fall somewhat during rain with some locally heavy rainfall totals (including the overnight totals) to 40 mm possible, 15-25 mm more generally, still the risk of intense lightning and hail, and highs 21-24 C, humidex around 27 C in some parts of the inland south. The most likely area for heavy rainfalls and possible local flooding would be around Carlow and Kilkenny, and parts of counties nearby. By afternoon the main activity will likely have moved northwest into Connacht.

SATURDAY ... Widespread showers and thunderstorms. Lows near 17 C and highs near 23 C. Inland eastern counties and east Ulster could be most at risk for torrential downpours but this will probably be quite a "hit or miss" event with some areas enjoying a dry afternoon and sunshine at times. Where it is sunny, the temperatures and humidex of 26-28 C will make it feel quite sultry. Potential for 10-20 mm rainfalls and perhaps a bit more in one or two locations northwest of Dublin.

SUNDAY ... Some improvement appears likely with less extensive showers, a light and variable wind regime but some thundery showers could redevelop from the west coast later in the day. Lows near 14 C and highs near 22 C inland, 20 C east coast and near 19 C west coast and parts of Ulster.

OUTLOOK for NEXT WEEK ... Very warm at times, unsettled but some dry days for various locations too. Highs could reach the mid to high 20s and there could be further heavy to severe storm activity.

See yesterday's forecast for details regarding Britain and North America. We had another sunny, very warm day with highs near 29 C. This heat wave is set to break after today, but only small amounts of rain will fall. Widespread forest fires may continue to be a problem in parts of western Canada and central Washington state.

M.T. Cranium · 17-07-2014 9:00pm

UPDATE _ Thursday, 17 July, 2014 _ 9 p.m.
________________________________________

Severe thunderstorm alert is continued for all regions south of a Dublin to Galway line, valid 10 p.m. to 1 a.m. for Kerry and nearby west Limerick, west Cork, otherwise valid 0100 to 1100h for counties in the southeast and central Ireland.

The activity moving towards Kerry may be locally intense around midnight there and some flash flooding with intense lightning can be expected, drive with extreme caution especially when crossing streams flowing out of the higher terrain.

Scattered thunderstorms could come and go in areas between this complex over Kerry and the advancing frontal wave now crossing Cornwall. That frontal wave will be the focus of expected heavy to severe storms arriving in the southeast around 0200-0300h but outliers could move inland around Waterford somewhat earlier.

This frontal wave complex of storms (70% confidence level) will be capable of generating powerful storms over Wexford, Waterford, Carlow, Kilkenny, Laois, Wicklow and Kildare between 0200h and 0500h and into the Dublin region as well as somewhat further north and west inland, by 0500 to 0700h.

The late overnight activity may remain intense throughout the night and deliver frequent and vivid lightning, local downpours that could generate flash flooding, and possibly some large hail to 5 cm and isolated strong wind gusts above 70 km/hr. Here again, drive with extreme caution especially before daylight assists you in seeing conditions ahead, especially in the vicinity of streams running out of the Wicklow and Dublin Mountains, and near underpasses and other road portions that could trap excessive runoff from local 30-50 mm downpours.

These conditions may continue to move north as far as Connacht and north Leinster by 0900-1200h although I expect them to subside below these levels eventually, after which some isolated severe storms are likely mid-day and afternoon associated with a weak cold front trailing along behind the frontal wave feature.

The frontal wave should continue to track NNW across Wexford into Carlow and Laois before becoming less distinct on radar due to disruption by the terrain in southeast Ireland.

Watch for further updates around midnight and/or the morning forecast update which I will try to post earlier than usual around 0630h.

M.T. Cranium · 18-07-2014 7:02am

Friday, 18 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT continues for severe thunderstorm activity this morning, spreading north through Dublin and Kildare into Meath, and then west mainly into Offaly, Westmeath, Longford, and parts of eastern Connacht. The trend further west will be gradual reduction in the intensity below severe limits. However, the intensity in Leinster will tend to oscillate, with a second peak in activity later in the day possibly including areas further south again in east Munster and south Leinster, as a weak cold front activates.

TODAY ... Leinster and east Connacht will see powerful thunderstorms at times with risk of hail, intense lightning and local downpours of 20-40 mm causing flash flooding. Some of this may spread into Ulster in reduced form by mid-day. Conditions further west in Connacht will be more showery than stormy but an isolated thunderstorm or two might develop there also. Munster will start out with some inland sunshine, very muggy conditions, and sea fog drifting inland from the south coast. Showers and thunderstorms will develop there and spread into parts of south Leinster after some late morning clear intervals. Some of these storms will become severe with hail and local flooding. The southern half of the country will have highs 22-24 C in sunny intervals between storms, while the northern half will tend to stall near 20 C due to more constant cloud cover. It will feel like 28 C at times in the south and 24 C in the north. Moderate southerly winds will develop with some gusts to about 50 km/hr, while east winds will continue north of the storm front.

TONIGHT ... The last of the showers or storms should come to an end around midnight in north central counties, then widespread ground fog and mist is likely under otherwise clearing skies. Very muggy with lows 14-18 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, widespread showers in east, some becoming thundery, isolated severe storms in north Leinster. Less widespread showers in west, south but some risk of isolated thunderstorms. Light winds and muggy with highs 23-25 C.

SUNDAY ... Risk of early morning thunderstorms in east Ulster, north Leinster, and these could continue in some coastal areas for part of the day. In general, clearing in most other regions, very warm, morning lows near 16 C and afternoon highs near 26 C inland, 22-24 C coastal. About a 20-30 per cent risk of a brief or isolated thunderstorm late in the day.

MONDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers and thunderstorms, highs near 25 C.

OUTLOOK ... Continued very warm and unsettled at times, with highs generally in the mid to high 20s. Some guidance is showing a peak in temperatures about a week to ten days from now near 30 C.

The outlook for Britain remains as per yesterday's discussion, today's scattered storms should continue to drift north, hot sunshine to follow, very humid, highs near 30 C. Widespread and possibly severe storms in central and southern England on Saturday, and continued stormy conditions here and there each day to mid-week although not all areas will see storms. Highs generally near 27 C in south and 23 C in north. Will update North America tomorrow, my local weather cooled off a bit thankfully on Thursday and a strong sea breeze was the main reason, highs only reached 24 C.

Will post updates as this severe storm situation develops. The forum thread on the event will be a good bet for you to keep updated as at some point I am very likely to fall asleep although not from boredom.

M.T. Cranium · 19-07-2014 7:53am

Saturday, 19 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland & Britain

Just for today, I am combining the forecasts for Ireland and Britain because of interest in The Open and various travel plans at this time of year, and due to the severity of storms expected in some areas of Britain. We'll revert to the usual format tomorrow.

TODAY ... For Ireland, expect a rather cloudy day with some brighter intervals although low cloud and coastal fog might be persistent in some areas. A few showers may develop into heavy thunderstorms in parts of east Ulster, north Leinster, and inland Munster into east Connacht. One or two of those storms could become heavy and give 10-20 mm rainfalls. Highs for most 21-23 C but feeling more like 25 C. ... Over Britain, waves of moisture will move north, the morning batch will be moderate at times with a few embedded storms, but the afternoon activity could be quite severe in the London region, spreading to the Midlands and eventually north-central England. Local rainfalls of 30-50 mm may cause flooding, and some intense lightning will be dangerous. Highs of about 22-24 C for most places, but 27-29 C in East Anglia and Kent which will remain in the hot, humid air mass longer.

TONIGHT ... Showers ending over Ireland, foggy in places, rather warm with lows only falling to 14-17 C. Heavy rain continuing for a while in much of Britain tapering off to showers and then drizzle, lows there 17-20 C.

SUNDAY ... Ireland should become mostly sunny except for persistent cloud near some coasts, and humidity levels may drop slightly but it will stay quite warm and there's a risk of an isolated thunderstorm in the north. Highs will be near 24 C except 18-21 C west coast. ... Over Britain, another round of heavy or severe storms is possible but these will be more isolated and not all locations will see any rain. The inland southeast, northeast and eastern Scotland appear most at risk. Highs will be 22-25 C.

MONDAY ... Both Ireland and Britain mostly dry, hazy sunshine in places, and very warm, highs 24-27 C in most places except 19-23 C in sea breeze regimes that will be more prominent on east-facing coasts.

TUESDAY ... Hazy sunshine, hot and rather humid. Highs 24-28 C. Periods of rain may develop close to Donegal Bay later in the day, other places dry.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with one or two showers west, partly cloudy and very warm eastern Ireland and most of Britain, but isolated thunderstorms could develop. Highs generally in mid 20s.

OUTLOOK ... Staying quite warm and humid with further outbreaks of scattered thunderstorms. Highs generally mid 20s.

Across North America, the cool regime in the east is relenting slowly to near normal temperatures, but a few thunderstorms will accompany a weak frontal wave as this trend develops. The western heat is flattening out to regions south of a Nevada-South Dakota line, and to the north of that a few showers and thunderstorms are more likely than recent days, with some heavy or severe ones in central British Columbia. ... My local weather on Friday was sunny with increasing high cloud, occasional sea fog remnant cloud in the form of broken stratocumulus cloud, and highs near 23 C. This made a nice change from the heat, now it looks rather unsettled for the weekend.

M.T. Cranium · 20-07-2014 7:43am

Sunday, 20 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Fog and some drizzly showers in north will gradually be replaced by sunny intervals, and it will become very warm and humid with highs 23-25 C. Just a slight risk of any thunderstorm activity, most likely in east Ulster and nearby parts of north Leinster. Many places should have a dry day although it will be quite humid.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, fog patches developing, warm. Lows 13-17 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, very warm east, highs 24-27 C except for some weak sea breeze cooling near shore. More cloud further west with chance of thundery showers developing, some heavy downpours may occur around Galway and Mayo. Highs 22-24 C there.

TUESDAY ... Hazy sunshine, isolated showers or thunderstorms, very warm, lows 14-18 C and highs 23-27 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will continue very warm or even hot with high humidity and more frequent showers or thunderstorms, still some places remaining dry. Highs generally 25-29 C but somewhat cooler far north and near coasts.

OUTLOOK ... Possibly turning slightly cooler next weekend, highs dropping to the lower 20s, then a slow warming trend towards early August again.

Britain will probably see a few scattered but isolated showers or thunderstorms today and most days this week, and temperatures will be generally similar to Ireland. There's about a 20% chance of any significant rain for The Open site today.

Will update North America in a day or two, but my local weather on Saturday was much cooler than recently (18 C) with brief morning showers, the odd sunny break by afternoon.

M.T. Cranium · 21-07-2014 7:28am

Monday, 21 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine, very warm and humid, hot for some inland areas, but cloudier near the west coast, with light rain edging inland at times. Highs will range from 22 C west and south coasts, far north to 26 C inland, 24 C east coast. About 3-5 mm rain could fall in some west coast locations.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy west, hazy or misty but generally clear further east, warm and humid, lows 13-17 C.

TUESDAY ... Hazy and hot inland and very warm around the east and south coasts, highs 24-28 C. More frequent cloudy intervals near west coast with a few showers. Highs near 23 C. Isolated thunderstorms inland north-central.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue with similar conditions, hazy and very warm to hot, humid, but the coverage of heavy showers or thunderstorms may slowly increase with perhaps a 20% chance mid-week rising to 50 or 60 per cent late in the week. Highs each day 25 to 29 C although closer to 23 C west coast.

OUTLOOK ... Just a touch cooler around Saturday but this will only drop temperatures 2-3 degrees, with one or two showers around, then another reinforcement of heat is likely to develop and there's even some chance of temperatures reaching 30 C at some point in the following week.

The conditions over Britain will be similar if perhaps slightly warmer in parts of the south, and less widespread thunderstorms later in the week although some chance for them in the Midlands. Over North America, intense heat is rebuilding over the western states but the east remains a little cooler than normal, although still quite warm at 25-28 C. My local weather on Sunday was overcast and drizzly at times with a rather humid high of 20 C.

M.T. Cranium · 22-07-2014 7:53am

Tuesday, 22 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy to start, some hazy sunshine may develop at times in eastern half of the country, but cloud further west may spawn showers and a few thunderstorms. There's a risk of heavy to severe storms in a north-south zone between Galway (city) and Athlone, which may lead to heavy downpours of 20-30 mm in some parts of Connacht and possibly west Munster (Clare, Tipps at least). Somewhat further west showers may not be nearly as heavy although perhaps more persistent. East of the heavy rainfall zone, amounts will steadily decrease and some parts of Leinster and east Ulster may remain dry. Highs will range from 22 C west to 26 C wherever the sun breaks through in the east, and high humidex values will make it feel quite hot.

TONIGHT ... Hazy and very warm east, cloudy and warm west, lows may drop no further than 18-20 C in places. Some showers will continue in reduced form while moving slowly north.

WEDNESDAY ... The pattern may be similar to today except that the storm zone may tilt somewhat further to the west to lie between Ballina and Galway, but then could split into several zones of showers or thunderstorms later, all of this activity drifting north. Once again, eastern third of the country has the best chance of seeing sunshine and remaining dry but storms could become heavy almost anywhere given the light winds and high humidity. Highs will reach 23 to 27 C from west to east.

THURSDAY ... Another rather cloudy, very warm and humid day with widespread thundery showers, some heavy downpours, and a temperature range only 20 to 25 C in most places. It could get a bit warmer anywhere that sunshine breaks through.

FRIDAY ... Showers and thunderstorms may become less active for part of the day, but will redevelop later. Very warm and humid with highs near 26 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Showers, increasing west to northwest breezes, and considerably fresher with highs near 24 C Saturday, 19 C Sunday. Although it could stay a bit cooler for a day or two, another warm spell seems likely to follow this brief change.

Britain will also be very warm and humid all week but with mostly dry conditions leading to a few scattered storms by late Friday and Saturday. Highs could reach 28-31 C at times in southern England.

In North America, heavy storms are developing in the Great Lakes region, temperatures are seasonable in the east and very hot again in the west, but cooler air pressing south across British Columbia will set off some widespread thunderstorms late today and again on Wednesday. ... My local weather featured some pleasant sunshine and low humidity, highs near 21 C.

Would advise that you check the storm thread as I am fairly sure to be off duty soon, may check in after 4 p.m., but anything severe that might develop mid-day will be discussed in the storm thread.

M.T. Cranium · 23-07-2014 7:32am

Wednesday, 23 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Showers and thunderstorms that have moved mainly offshore to the west will gradually return to the western third of the country by afternoon and evening. Rainfalls of 10-20 mm are possible trending to 3-5 mm closer to central counties. It may stay dry elsewhere although there is the slight risk of an isolated storm further east by late afternoon. Hot with hazy sunshine for the middle and eastern two-thirds of Ireland, and highs will range from 22 C in the west to 27 C inland east, central but 25 C or a bit lower in some east coast locations as a rather weak sea breeze sets in. Sea breezes near the south coast could be a bit stronger and keep readings down to about 20-22 C with some sea fog at least close to shore if not over outer headlands.

TONIGHT ... Further showers and occasional thunder in west, eventually dying out, cloudy for most other areas and very warm, lows only falling to 18-21 C.

THURSDAY ... Hot and humid for most. Once again, the western third of the country will see some showers and thunderstorms, but the rest of Ireland will then be subject to somewhat higher risks of isolated storms, with highs similar to today, 22 C west to 27 C east and central, 21-23 C south coast.

FRIDAY ... Showers and thunderstorms becoming more hit or miss and scattered more equally over western and central regions, continued hot and humid, lows 17-20 C and highs 24-28 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy, periods of rain and some embedded thunderstorms moving gradually from west to east across the country, turning cooler during the day in the west. Lows 16-19 C and highs 20-22 C west, 22-25 C east.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, breezy (W 40-60 km/hr) and much fresher. Lows 9-13 C and highs 17-21 C.

OUTLOOK ... Another warm spell is likely next week but perhaps not as intense as the current air mass, and less humid too. Highs may reach 24 C at least.

Britain continues to see very warm weather too, although a fair amount of North Sea cloud has spread into eastern counties of England today. Despite that highs of 25-30 C will be widespread later. The change in air mass for Britain will come about in stages over the weekend and it may be less noticeable in parts of southeast England. ... North America will see more widespread heat moving further east today but much cooler air is spreading into the far west north of California and Nevada at least. My local weather on Tuesday was pleasant with increasing cloud and a high of 22 C, today is expected to bring heavy showers and thunderstorms under a "closed low" feature moving inland and it may struggle to reach 17 C. Rather looking forward to this, as we get very few thunderstorms in this coastal climate zone.

M.T. Cranium · 24-07-2014 8:19am

Thursday, 24 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Hot and humid for most. Once again, the western third of the country will see some showers and thunderstorms, but the rest of Ireland will also be subject to somewhat higher risks of isolated showers or thunderstorms, as an intermittent stream of showers develops across Wicklow and parts of Dublin-Kildare into central regions. Highs will be around 22-24 C west to 27 C east and central, 21-23 C south coast. Some coastal fog may develop west of Waterford. It may drift a few kilometres inland then disperse and reform.

TONIGHT ... Continued very warm, showers dying out in central and western counties. Lows 18-21 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers and thunderstorms becoming more hit or miss and scattered more equally over western and central regions, continued hot and humid, and highs 24-28 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy, periods of rain and some embedded thunderstorms moving gradually from west to east across the country, heavy at times in Ulster, north Connacht and north Leinster, turning cooler during the day in the west and by evening in eastern counties. Lows 16-19 C and highs 20-22 C west, 22-25 C east.

SUNDAY and MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, breezy (W 40-60 km/hr) and much fresher. Lows 9-13 C and highs 17-21 C although possibly more humid by Monday making it feel warmer again.

OUTLOOK ... Another warm spell is likely next week but perhaps not as intense as the current air mass, and less humid too. Highs may reach 24 C at least.

Sorry about the delay this morning, I had a late start to my forecasting and we'll return to the other forecasts tomorrow. My local weather on Wednesday was rather cool and showery with a high of only 17 C.

M.T. Cranium · 25-07-2014 7:45am

Friday, 25 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... This should be the last hot day for a while, and thunderstorm activity will retreat back to the western counties where it may take most of the day to develop. Under widespread sunshine elsewhere, highs will reach 25 to 28 C, with very slight cooling in a few coastal locations. Showers or thunderstorms could become heavy in Connacht and Donegal.

TONIGHT ... Frequent showers or thunderstorms across Connacht and spreading into Ulster, more scattered showers for Munster but staying dry in parts of Leinster, at least until morning. Lows 14-18 C warmest in southeast.

SATURDAY ... Frequent showers and thunderstorms across Ulster, ending during the mid-day period in Connacht and west Ulster, spreading into north Leinster by afternoon. Further south, showers may be rather scattered with longer dry intervals, perhaps a bit of sunshine ... all regions will turn a bit fresher during the morning and highs will only reach 22-24 C in the south, while hovering near 18-20 C further north. It will slowly become rather breezy from a northwesterly direction and some strong gusts will develop in Clare, west Galway, Mayo, Donegal, Sligo and adjacent parts of Leitrim, Roscommon.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud at times, sunny intervals, isolated showers, and gusty northwest winds backing to westerly (gusts to 60 km/hr), morning lows around 10 C and highs near 18 C, possibly touching 20 C in Waterford to Wicklow coastal regions.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, a bit warmer again with increasing humidity, largely dry but isolated brief showers, lows near 9 C and highs near 23 C.

OUTLOOK ... Warmer again, although not as hot as this week, nor as humid. Eventually another cold front will push more seasonable air masses back into Ireland from the west. The long-range outlook for August calls for a mixture of seasonable warmth and very warm spells averaging about 1.5 deg above normal values.

In Britain, the heat wave will break on Saturday for most, but other than the timing, the sequence will be similar there. It may touch 30 C in some places today, most likely in the west Midlands and Severn valley, and Thames valley regions.

North America is now seeing more average temperatures in all regions except for severe heat in the southwest. An active frontal system is crossing the Great Lakes with thunderstorms expected. My local weather on Thursday was mostly cloudy but with the showers ending before mid-day, and highs reaching about 19 or 20 C.

M.T. Cranium · 26-07-2014 7:50am

Saturday, 26 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: New moon occurs late today at 23:42h summer time.

TODAY ... The current round of heavy showers over east Ulster and parts of north Leinster will clear eastward, with a second round set to move into Connacht and west Ulster before mid-day, then progress across the rest of the north during the afternoon. Total rainfalls of 10-20 mm likely there. Further south, showers will be generally brief and some places could remain dry, with amounts more like 2-5 mm for some. This will allow some sunny intervals to develop in the south. Winds will veer around to west then northwest and could become rather gusty in the northwestern counties by afternoon and evening. Highs 21-23 C south, 17-19 C north.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, showers ending for most but continuing in the far north. Moderate westerly winds. Lows 8-12 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated showers south, rather frequent showers or periods of light rain in far north. Highs 17-20 C warmer in south.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, except for overcast skies in the north with light rain possible at times there, morning lows 7-10 C and afternoon highs 19-24 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy or sunny south, cloudy north, intervals of coastal fog and drizzle near north coast. Lows 9-12 C and highs 21-24 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Wednesday will continue rather warm and dry, then just slightly cooler late in the week, with an increase in cloud and isolated shower activity. Highs near 24 C at first then 18-22 C. Further on, the following weekend appears somewhat cooler again and unsettled, although this signal has come and gone in the past few weeks and failed to materialize within a week's time, so this is hardly a done deal yet.

My local weather on Friday was mostly cloudy with highs near 21 C.

M.T. Cranium · 27-07-2014 7:58am

Sunday, 27 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy this morning in parts of the south, but apart from a few sprinkles of rain, staying dry, then some sunshine by afternoon. Breezy with highs near 20 C. Parts of the west will have some sunshine from this morning onward, and just the slight chance of passing showers with highs 18-19 C. Further north, cloud may be more persistent leading to light rain by mid-day and afternoon in east Ulster and north Leinster. Highs 16-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Clearing in most regions and a few shallow fog patches inland near lakes and rivers mostly, lows 8-11 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, increasing cloud by afternoon, some isolated showers but these more widespread in parts of Ulster. Highs 18-22 C warmest near south coast in a moderate northwesterly wind flow backing later to west with gusts to 60 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, warm in south. Cloudy with occasional drizzle and mist in north. Lows 7-10 C and highs 17-19 C north, 21-24 C south.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, breezy; lows 8-12 C and highs 20-23 C.

OUTLOOK ... Gradually turning cooler with a more unsettled trend over Friday and the weekend, some highs below 20 C but longer-range trends look promising again for a warm spell to return.

The trends in Britain will be similar and when it does turn cooler and unsettled, there could be some heavy rainfalls across the south of England by next weekend. The trends in North America are generally holding near normal or slightly below seasonable in most regions, with some heavy thunderstorms across parts of the east later today ... the west is under a developing ridge and will return to the very warm pattern that has marked most of the month except for the past three days ... my local weather returned to sunshine on Saturday with highs near 23 C.

M.T. Cranium · 28-07-2014 7:26am

Monday, 28 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy intervals, passing showers more frequent in Connacht and Ulster as some parts of the south will have more sunshine and a dry day. Breezy at times from NW, later backing to WSW with gusts to 60 km/hr. Highs will range from 17 C north to 21 C southeast.

TONIGHT ... Light rain at times in north, some clear intervals near south coast, cloudy elsewhere, lows 8-12 C.

TUESDAY ... Morning cloud and some light rain in parts of the north, followed by a clearing trend, warm with highs reaching 20 C north, 24 C south.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm, isolated showers developing mainly in north and west. Lows 8-12 C and highs 21-24 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with some showers and isolated thunderstorms, humid, lows 10-14 C and highs 19-22 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers or periods of rain, lows 11-15 C and highs 18-21 C.

OUTLOOK ... The weekend will be showery with the risk of some heavier rainfalls developing, but eventually August should begin to return to the warm, dry pattern of recent weeks.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and very warm with a high of 26 C.

M.T. Cranium · 29-07-2014 7:29am

Tuesday, 29 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy this morning, drizzle ending for most, then gradually turning brighter with some warm sunshine at times mid-day and afternoon. The far north may remain more under cloud and occasional light rain, and there is a slight risk of a brief shower in other regions. Highs 21-24 C warmest inland south and southeast.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals, cloudier north with occasional light rain, lows around 10 to 14 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm, slight chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm, most likely in Connacht. Highs 21-23 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, showers developing, risk of thunder in west, lows 11-15 C and highs 20-23 C. Increasingly humid.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy and humid with frequent showers or periods of rain, risk of thunderstorms, lows 12-16 C and highs 18-21 C.

SATURDAY ... Becoming partly cloudy, breezy, some showers. Lows 11-13 C and highs 18-20 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, chance of showers, lows near 10 C and highs around 19 or 20 C.

MONDAY ... Rain at times, humid, highs near 21 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The pattern looks like it wants to reset (gradually) to the mid-July warm/dry spell that has recently ended (more or less). This interruption is not exactly a complete change in circulation either, but some of the maps showing up for 10-15 days down the road look very dry again.

Just a heads up, I will soon be taking about two weeks of renewal time and could use some assistance, let me know (preferably by PM) if you could provide at least two or three updates a week and have the interest. If I get more than one offer of help I may suggest taking turns, that way the readers will get more forecasts. This won't start until at least Saturday 2nd, maybe a day or two later, and it would run to about the 18th of August.

My local weather, meanwhile, is sunny and hot again, was yesterday and will be each day this week, it seems. Highs near 30 C. This has been one of the warmer months I've seen here in twenty years although not as warm as the average summer back east.

M.T. Cranium · 30-07-2014 7:52am

Wednesday, 30 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy with some decent sunny intervals across the southern and central counties, but a greater chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm, one round already underway in east Ulster, then later most likely in Connacht and redeveloping into west Ulster. Warm again with highs 21-23 C.

TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud with isolated showers for the north, but some clear intervals in the south, lows 11-15 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, showers developing, risk of thunder in west, highs 20-23 C. Increasingly humid.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy and humid with frequent showers or periods of rain, risk of thunderstorms, lows 12-16 C and highs 18-21 C. Turning somewhat fresher late afternoon west, evening elsewhere, as light southerly winds give way to moderate northwesterlies.

SATURDAY ... Becoming partly cloudy, breezy, some showers but relatively dry for most of the south and west. Lows 11-13 C and highs 18-21 C. (Note that Britain will continue to see heavy showers most of the day as the Friday system above makes slow progress east, some heavy rains are likely in southern England).

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, chance of showers but some locations will remain dry with some sunny intervals for the southeast, lows near 10 C and highs around 19 to 22 C.

MONDAY ... Rain at times with risk of thunder, rather humid with lows near 14 and highs near 21 C. Moderate southerly winds could produce gusts to 50 or 60 km/hr in the Atlantic coastal counties and most of the south.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Earlier on Tuesday, the European model was signalling a thundery outbreak of some significance on Thursday 7th August, still over a week away, but the latest guidance from various global models contains an energy peak between Wednesday 6th and Friday 8th, so something to keep in mind -- nevertheless, a warmer trend seems likely towards mid-August again, which increases the chances that this event could produce heavy thunderstorms, in whatever form it eventually takes. The Monday 4th event has somewhat limited air mass contrast but might still prove to be rather active in west Munster at least. As I mentioned yesterday, I may miss these in "real time" as I'm hoping to be on the road by this weekend.

My local weather is now locked into a scorching warm and dry spell with daily highs near 30 C each day. At least it is cooling down reasonably quickly after sunset.

M.T. Cranium · 31-07-2014 7:38am

Thursday, 31 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, a few showers and slight risk of a thunderstorm, rainfalls about 5-10 mm although a few places could stay dry. Rather warm and increasingly humid, highs 19-21 C.

TONIGHT ... Fog or mist developing, light rain at times, lows 12-16 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy and humid with frequent showers or periods of rain, risk of thunderstorms, some of which could become heavy inland south, rainfalls of 8 to 15 mm on average, with highs 17-20 C. Turning somewhat fresher late afternoon west, evening elsewhere, as light southerly winds give way to moderate northwesterlies.

SATURDAY ... Becoming partly cloudy, breezy, some showers but relatively dry for most of the south and west. There appears to be about a 60% chance of some lingering showers in parts of Leinster and 80% for east Ulster lasting part of the day, then a secondary area of showers with some heavy thundery cells possible in Connacht and west Munster by late afternoon, spreading east and dying out overnight. Lows 11-13 C and highs 18-21 C. (Note that Britain will continue to see heavy showers most of the day as the Friday system above makes slow progress east, some heavy rains are likely in southern England). ... Although I have mentioned quite a bit of rain here, the day probably won't be a washout anywhere and could even remain dry in some parts of central and southern counties.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, chance of showers but some locations will remain dry with some sunny intervals for the southeast, lows near 10 C and highs around 19 to 22 C.

MONDAY ... The morning may remain dry in parts of the east, but otherwise expect rain at times with risk of thunder, rather humid with lows near 14 and highs near 21 C. Moderate southerly winds could produce gusts to 50 or 60 km/hr in the Atlantic coastal counties and most of the south by late in the day and overnight. Rainfalls by midnight or Tuesday morning could total 15-25 mm especially in southern regions.

TUESDAY ... Showers or thunderstorms, warm and humid, possibly turning a bit cooler in west by afternoon. Lows near 14 C and highs near 22 C.

OUTLOOK ... It may remain rather unsettled later in the week with risk of a heavy rainfall event around Wednesday afternoon or evening, accompanied by strong southerly winds shifting to westerly by Thursday. Temperatures would be fairly warm despite a lot of cloud, and there's a growing chance of warm and sunny weather beyond that towards the second (and or third) weeks of August.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and very warm at 28 C.

M.T. Cranium · 01-08-2014 7:55am

Friday, 1 August, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, with the odd brighter interval but once the morning rainfall shifts east, only a few sporadic showers or drizzly light rain, misty and probably foggy over some coastal headlands and higher terrain. Highs 16-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Heavy rainfall will move into the south bringing 15-25 mm downpours east of Cork, heaviest around Waterford and Wexford. The earlier light showers will continue over parts of the north, and the heavier rain will slowly move north into the Dublin region before morning. Lows 8-11 C.

SATURDAY ... Heavy rain at times in east Leinster and Ulster, as winds back around from northeast to northwest 40-60 km/hr. There could be some thunder embedded around Meath, Cavan and Monaghan, 15-25 mm further rainfalls in these regions. The heavier showers will end over south Leinster and east Munster, and further west it may be a largely dry day although a secondary band of light rain is probable for Donegal and north Connacht feeding into the midlands but tending to die out there. Highs about 16 C in the east and north to 19 or 20 C in west Munster and Galway.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, a few rather isolated showers, many places dry however, morning lows 8-11 C and afternoon highs 18-21 C.

MONDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or thunderstorms developing in some western regions, could stay dry in Leinster and east Ulster. Lows 8-12 C and highs 18-22 C.

TUESDAY ... A few showers, risk of a thunderstorm, warm and humid. Lows around 13 C and highs around 22 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy and warm with showers and risk of thunderstorms, guidance on this event is quite mixed at this stage, some potential for severe storms to develop especially in Munster. Lows near 15 C and highs near 24 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Gradual improvement seems to be the general theme of longer range guidance, and the GFS shows definite "heat wave" potential around mid-August. Later next week, into the weekend of 8-9 August, any remnants of newly formed Tropical Storm Bertha could be drifting northeast from the central Atlantic. Far too early to say whether this could even be a minor weather feature for Ireland as it appears a rather weak storm on any charts where it survives this coming weekend in the Caribbean.

At this point, western North America has returned to very hot weather except where some storms popped up in northern Arizona and they had quite a drop in temperature as a result (only 14 C at Flagstaff, Arizona last evening). The eastern half of North America remains close to or slightly below mid-summer normals, meaning 25 C instead of 27-30 C. My local weather was hotter than that on Thursday, and ten degrees above the local normals at 31 C.

M.T. Cranium · 02-08-2014 6:54am

Saturday, 2 August, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for continued heavy rainfall in north Leinster and east/central Ulster, further amounts of 40 mm possible, road and stream flooding and possible severe urban flooding developing ... some of the heavy rain will feed back further west by afternoon into west Ulster and north Connacht. See forecasts for further details.

TODAY ... Heavy rain at times in Leinster and Ulster, as winds back around from northeast to northwest with some gusts to 40-60 km/hr. There could be some thunder embedded around Dublin, north Kildare, Meath, Louth, eastern NI, also Westmeath, Longford, Cavan and Monaghan, 20-40 mm further rainfalls in these regions. The heavier showers will end over south Leinster and east Munster, with a few isolated moderate showers in the inland southeast, while further west it may be a largely dry day although a secondary band of light to moderate rain is probable for Donegal and north Connacht feeding into the midlands, producing some local flooding in counties around Roscommon and Leitrim, but tending to die out towards the midlands. Highs about 16 C in the east and north to 19 or 20 C in west Munster and Galway.

TONIGHT ... Heavy and possibly thundery rain with a further 15-30 mm will continue in Ulster, parts of north Connacht and north Leinster, and added to today's expected amounts this could produce severe local flooding with dangerous road flooding in flat poorly-drained areas or near smaller streams, meanwhile, the heavier rain should be easing off around Dublin by evening and then Meath before midnight, but further amounts of 5-15 mm there. A second pulse of heavy and possibly thundery rain may flare up overnight around Donegal and Sligo, 10-20 mm and local flooding.

SUNDAY ... For most regions south of a Mayo to Westmeath to Louth line, the weather will be generally partly cloudy with some sunny intervals, just a few rather isolated showers, many places dry however, morning lows 8-11 C and afternoon highs 18-21 C. For regions north of that same line, rain may continue much of the day becoming more showery before ending, with 10-15 mm further accumulations.

MONDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or thunderstorms developing in some western regions by late afternoon or evening, but it should stay dry in Leinster and east Ulster. Lows 8-12 C and highs 18-22 C. Very humid with so much moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere and on the ground in north and east. Your best bet for a decent weekend weather package is probably Munster and western Connacht. Total weekend rainfalls could vary remarkably from 1-3 mm in some parts of west Munster to 60-80 mm in counties around Meath and Cavan.

TUESDAY ... A few showers, risk of a thunderstorm, warm and humid. Lows around 13 C and highs around 22 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy and warm with showers and risk of thunderstorms, some potential for severe storms to develop especially in Munster. Lows near 15 C and highs near 24 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Further heavy rain is possible near the end of the week and into the weekend of 8-9 August, then a gradual drying trend with warmer temperatures returning.

For Britain some of the heavy rainfall will affect Wales and northwest England, southwest Scotland, but amounts generally 20-40 mm in total. Further east, there will be frontal thunderstorms developing in a warmer southerly flow, highs will be 22-24 C in parts of eastern England. Western Scotland will become very wet during the day and this may last almost all weekend there. Next week will have a similar sequence of events to those predicted for Ireland, albeit a little later in timing.

My local weather on Friday was sunny with periods of high overcast and evening cloud from distant decaying thunderstorms over Mount Baker to our east. There's a slight chance of a brief storm later today. The high was about 27 C locally on Friday. See yesterday's forecast for further details about North America and Bertha (which is approaching Puerto Rico with sporadic heavy rainfall bands and 100 km/hr gusts, not an overly powerful tropical storm).

Check back around 0800h in case later guidance brings in new details for today and the weekend.

M.T. Cranium · 02-08-2014 2:55pm

UPDATE _ Sat 2 Aug 3 p.m.
_________________________

The areas that have dried out past 2-3 hours just to northwest of Dublin are close to the upper-level low which is drifting northeast and will be over county Down by about midnight, taking this drier zone along in that direction. At the same time, the occlusion running into the secondary surface centre under the upper low (the primary is over the north Irish Sea) will plod north and resume at least moderate rainfall for areas that it covers from Dublin north. On the east coast you can expect to see winds going from east to south, then southwest and west but inland the sequence will be from east to north and northwest then westerly.

The intense looking return flow from west across portions of Laois, Carlow, south Kildare will be dragged northwards and upslope against the Wicklow-Dublin Mountains could create locally heavier rains around the western portions of Dublin but then later this feature will be returning to the east coast without running into that upslope. There may be a slight rainshadow effect east of the hills that will fade out from Bray northwards later. So would expect a further 20-40 mm rain in most of Leinster as the dry centre of the system moves more into east Ulster. This wrap around could then become thundery with some hail embedded. Be alert for thunderstorm development about 4-7 p.m. in the Dublin region then this will slowly shift north during the evening.

The section of the storm now over west Ulster will be held in place for the rest of the day and through most of tonight, and I suspect it may be under-modelled so expect some locally torrential downpours in parts of Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon and eastern Mayo-Galway with 20-40 mm further rainfall there, also in Derry, Tyrone and Fermanagh.

This storm will likely continue for a significant portion of Sunday in most of Ulster and the parts of Leinster and Connacht within about forty miles of Ulster, and the current sharp boundaries may degrade as areas of showers begin to rotate around the more persistent rain bands.

M.T. Cranium · 03-08-2014 7:36am

Sunday, 3 August, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Please note, MTC is heading out on holidays and you may be seeing some guest forecasters in the thread for the next two weeks. I will be away from the internet for most of the time; if I happen to be connected and I can see anything major, I might post a comment on that. See you all again around the 18th of August. Will post some thoughts about rest of today below, but rest of forecast would follow yesterday's plot.

JUST FOR TODAY ... The steady, at times heavy rain still ongoing in a few parts of the central counties will tend to fragment to showers. Another pulse of moderate and possibly heavy rain could circulate around through Donegal Bay and hit near Sligo and Leitrim where 10-20 mm further rainfall is quite possible. Meanwhile, another area of showers could develop west of Kerry around mid-day and move into Kerry and then Cork bringing an interruption to their so far pleasant dry weekend. Only 3-5 mm would be expected with that. Meanwhile, for Dublin and region, would expect at least some improvement but occasional showers to about mid-day, perhaps staying mostly dry although some risk of brief showers this afternoon.

Okay then, stay safe and enjoy whatever the weather brings, if you can. :cool:

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Comments