Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

200motels · 07-08-2014 12:51am

Today
It will be largely dry with sunny spells for most areas but a few showers will develop in the north later. Highest temps ranging from 17 to 20 degrees in light south-west winds.

Outlook
Very showery on Friday and the weekend and cooler also.
Continuing unsettled for most of next week, the mornings seeing the best of the weather.

200motels · 08-08-2014 3:49pm

Tonight

Most places will be dry tonight, but showers will affect west Munster, Connacht and west Ulster. Lowest temps 9 to 12 degrees.

Tomorrow

It will start off dry in Leinster and east Munster with sunny spells. Some showers elswhere but spreading eastwards and will become more widespread in the afternoon. They'll die out towards the end of the day. Highest temps of 17 to 20 degrees with light to moderate south-west breezes.

Outlook

On Sunday showers will become widespread and heavy with top temp 16 to 20 degrees. On Monday and Tuesday it will be cool and breezy with a mixture of sunshine and showers. The rest of the week will be much the same maybe not so many showers in the east but more so in the west.

200motels · 08-08-2014 10:14pm

Update

Ex tropical storm Bertha could hit the south and south east tomorrow night with the potential for some heavy rain, exact track is a bit uncertain at the moment, one to watch.

200motels · 11-08-2014 7:45pm

Tonight

Some clear spells but showers also, temps 8 to 11 degrees.

Tomorrow

It will be a fresh, breezy and fairly showery day. Some of the showers will be heavy and thundery. Temps 15 to 18 C.

Outlook

Showers will again be widespread on Wednesday. Thursday won't be as showery and it will get milder, Friday and the weekend will see a mixed bag but with a lot of dry weather in the south and east and temps near normal.

200motels · 12-08-2014 1:06pm

Today

A breezy and showery, with heavy and prolonged showers in places, a lot of sunny spells also, temps 16 to 19 degrees in a fresh north to north westerly wind, showers will become more isolated this evening.

Tomorrow

Some showers on Wednesday but not as widespread as today with good sunny spells. Milder also temps 17 to 20 or maybe 21 degrees.

Outlook

Some showers will continue near west coasts on Wednesday night but elsewhere it will become dry. On Thursday it will be again showery with sunny spells but the showers will be heaviest in the east temps 18 to 21 degrees. Friday will be a mostly dry day. The weekend is a bit uncertain at this time but it looks like low pressure will take charge which will bring showery cool weather.

200motels · 13-08-2014 5:56pm

Tonight

A few scattered showers but overall it will be dry with temps 9 to 11 degrees.

Tomorrow

Scattered showers but with a good deal of dry weather with temps 16 to 20 degrees.

Outlook

Friday will be a fresh dry day, the weekend will be a bit milder with a lot of dry weather but the north might see some more general rain, temps 17 to 21 degrees. Next week will remain cool but a lot of dry weather.

popsmar · 16-08-2014 11:35am

Sorry about the poor grammar....

breezy with scattered showers form today till next wed then looks fine maybe even sunny till the following Sunday 24th back to scattered showers on the Monday /Tuesday then looks cloudy for a few days with sun for the rest of the week.
then kids a back to school we all know this means SUN possibly up to the 5th of Sep then back to the scattered showers

the following 3 weeks in sep appear only to have 2-3 days of rain in them with sun and scattered cloud high 18-16 low 8-5 at night

sat24.com/foreloop.aspx?type=1#
and AccuWeather.com

200motels · 17-08-2014 11:58am

Today

Cool and windy with sunny spells and scattered showers, some heavy ones in the north temps 14 to 18 making it feel autumnal.

Tonight

Cloudy across the north but dry and clear further south with temps 8 to 11 degrees.

Tomorrow

Cool and breezy with sunny spells and scattered showers some heavy, temps 14 to 18 degrees in a fresh northwesterly wind.

Outlook

Very cool on Tuesday with a lot of showers, Wednesday cool and bright and a few showers, the rest of the week will be cool with showers in the north but not so much in the south.

M.T. Cranium · 18-08-2014 5:09am

Hello all, just back from a refreshing total break from all things routine and may need a day or so, will check things over between now and 0600h and perhaps put up a brief forecast if there's anything active, or perhaps wait until Tuesday morning to press the restart button. But if you're reading this before sunrise and you have any clear skies, check out the Venus-Jupiter conjunction in the east. We saw it in the desert yesterday morning, gorgeous view there. You'll be seeing it at its closest phase this morning.

M.T. Cranium · 19-08-2014 7:53am

Tuesday, 19 August, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy although longer sunny intervals in the east and southeast, with some early morning showers gradually ending across west Munster. More showers are likely to form over the northwest by mid-day and then these will spread into some parts of Connacht and west Ulster. Highs around 17 C in a moderate northwesterly breeze with gusts to 50-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals with any remnant showers dying out, feeling quite cold as lows fall to 5-8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Little change from today with mostly dry conditions but a few showers scattered across north and west mainly, some sunny breaks and moderate northwest winds, highs 15-18 C.

THURSDAY ... After another cool morning with early lows near 5-7 C, expect increasing cloud from the north followed by light rain that may spread about as far south as Galway to Dublin by late afternoon, so a mainly dry day for the south. Highs 14-17 C north to 17-19 C south. Winds backing to southwest ahead of this frontal band, then veering more westerly.

FRIDAY ... Showers, followed by a gradual clearing trend, winds veering back into the northwest and freshening, morning lows near 10 C and afternoon highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny with lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C. Rain may arrive on the west coast around late afternoon or evening.

SUNDAY ... Windy with periods of rain that may become heavy and thundery, southerly gales may develop with gusts to 80-100 km/hr especially active for the south coast. There is potential for 20-30 mm rainfalls. Lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C. The strong winds may ease late in the day except in south Leinster, veering westerly with a partial clearance overnight into Monday.

OUTLOOK ... Gradually turning warmer next week with highs returning to the low 20s, rain becoming more confined to north.

The pattern over Britain will also be generally cooler than normal for the next week with frequent showers developing Thursday and Friday. The stronger disturbance due for Ireland on Sunday will reach southern and central Britain later Sunday and will continue through most of Monday. Meanwhile, the weather pattern over North America is generally somewhat cooler than average this coming week, although closer to normal in the south and west. Some persistent heavy rainfalls are likely in parts of the Midwest and lower Great Lakes regions. My local weather on Monday was hazy and very warm with a high near 25 C.

M.T. Cranium · 20-08-2014 7:39am

Wednesday, 20 August, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Thanks to 200motels and other readers for providing some forecasts during my recent holiday. -- MTC

TODAY ... Some morning sunshine, then partly to mostly cloudy with mostly dry conditions but a few showers scattered across north and west mainly, moderate northwest winds, highs 15-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud in most regions, some clear intervals in the south where lows could fall as low as 5-7 C, otherwise lows 8-11 C. Some light rain may begin after midnight in the far north.

THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud from the north followed by light rain that may spread about as far south as Galway to Dublin by late afternoon, so a mainly dry day for the south. Highs 14-17 C north to 17-19 C south. Winds backing to southwest ahead of this frontal band, then veering more westerly. The rain will then spread into the south overnight into Friday morning. Most regions will only see about 5 mm of rain with this rather weak system, 10 mm in a few parts of the inland north.

FRIDAY ... Showers, followed by a gradual clearing trend, winds becoming northwest and freshening, morning lows near 10 C and afternoon highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny with lows 6 to 8 C and highs 16 to 18 C. Rain may arrive on the west coast around late afternoon or evening. Light winds. Best sunshine likely to be in Leinster and east Munster.

SUNDAY ... Windy with periods of rain that may become heavy and thundery, southeasterly to southerly gales may develop with gusts to 80-100 km/hr -- especially active for the south coast. There is potential for 20-30 mm rainfalls. Lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C. The strong winds may ease late in the day except in south Leinster, veering westerly with a partial clearance overnight into Monday.

MONDAY ... Warmer and quite humid with showers, possible thunderstorms, lows about 13 C and highs about 19 or 20 C. However, it will turn cooler again across Ulster, Connacht and most of north Leinster, west Munster by mid-day, with temperatures falling off to near 15 C. Some heavier showers with hail, gusty winds to about 70 km/hr developing again near the south coast around late morning or mid-day, this time from southwest to west in direction. Rainfalls generally 10-15 mm but could be heavier in some spots.

TUESDAY ... Further heavy showers likely in eastern counties, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C, in northeast winds, some clearing by mid-day west, then by later afternoon for eastern counties.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some clearing Tuesday night, sunny at first Wednesday then clouding over, rain possible again by Thursday morning of next week, with temperatures closer to normal values (18-20 C for daytime highs).

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with a few sunny intervals and rather warm with highs near 23 C.

M.T. Cranium · 21-08-2014 7:41am

Thursday, 21 August, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Outbreaks of light rain or drizzle may be followed by partial clearing for a while, before heavier showers arrive from further north (these are just beginning to impact Donegal and will spread further south and east during the morning and mid-day hours). Rather breezy at times from west, veering more to northwest by late afternoon. Highs 14-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers moving further south then ending, moderate northwest winds and lows 7-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated showers, highs 15-18 C.

SATURDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, a few isolated showers over north Connacht and west Ulster, parts of north Leinster ... a cool start with morning lows only 5 to 8 C then highs reaching 15 to 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Dry to start in most of Ulster and Leinster, drizzle or light rain from early morning in parts of Connacht and Munster, turning to a steady downpour with some heavy and possibly thundery bursts, the rain spreading further north and east to bring 15-30 mm falls. Becoming quite windy around mid-afternoon near the south coast in particular, where gusts from SE to S will reach 80 km/hr or higher. Temperatures edging up from morning lows near 10 to 12 C, reaching 15-18 C later in the day but possibly 18-20 C in parts of west Munster.

MONDAY ... Foggy or misty to start, warmer and quite humid, showers and thunderstorms developing, then turning cooler across the north and west, as winds there become northerly after briefly backing around to northeast. Fresh southerly winds elsewhere will drop off to light except for some strong gusts near thunderstorms. Lows near 13 C and highs near 19 C.

TUESDAY ... Further showers likely, with some brief clearing possible, staying rather mild and quite humid, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, highs 18-20 C and winds mainly from south to southwest, with risk of further heavy rainfalls at times.

My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy with brief sunny intervals and somewhat cooler than recent days at 21 C.

M.T. Cranium · 22-08-2014 7:37am

Friday, 22 August, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated showers, more frequent in west and north, amounts only 1-3 mm with moderate NW to N breezes and rather cool highs of 15-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clearing, quite cold with lows falling to 5-8 C. A few showers may continue near north and west coasts but most places will be dry, if somewhat misty at times.

SATURDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, a few isolated showers over north Connacht and west Ulster, parts of north Leinster ... a cool start with morning lows only 5 to 8 C then highs reaching 15 to 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Dry to start in most of Ulster and Leinster, drizzle or light rain from early morning in parts of Connacht and Munster, turning to a steady downpour with some heavy and possibly thundery bursts, the rain spreading further north and east to bring 15-30 mm falls. Becoming quite windy around mid-afternoon near the south coast in particular, where gusts from SE to S will reach 80 km/hr or higher. Temperatures edging up from morning lows near 10 to 12 C (except 5-8 C in east Ulster, north Leinster) then reaching 15-18 C later in the day but possibly 18-20 C in parts of west Munster.

MONDAY ... Foggy or misty to start, warmer and quite humid, showers and thunderstorms developing, then turning cooler across the north and west, as winds there become northerly after briefly backing around to northeast. Fresh southerly winds elsewhere will drop off to light except for some strong gusts near thunderstorms. Lows near 13 C and highs 17-19 C although falling off to about 15 C later in the day in north and west. Rainfalls 10-20 mm, risk of spot flooding in parts of the inland southeast.

TUESDAY ... Further showers or light rain likely, with some brief clearing possible, staying rather mild and quite humid, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C. Winds from northeast may take more of a southeast course by later in the day, skies becoming variable but only brief sunny intervals likely with a weak ridge between systems.

OUTLOOK for WED-THURS calls for further rain at times in a developing south to southwest flow with moderate wind gusts. A stronger system may follow next weekend -- I hope this outlook will change but the early signs are rather unsettled for Friday and Saturday (29th-30th) and quite windy too.

Britain can expect most of these unsettled conditions over the next week to ten days, and Scotland, northern England and Wales will see the most rain, with temperatures returning to somewhat above normal values at times next week. Across the U.S., some very heavy rains from stalled frontal thunderstorms can be expected in the lower Great Lakes including the Chicago region, and some urban flooding may develop. Hot and humid in the southeast. A tropical storm could form at any time now near Puerto Rico or Hispaniola and this may track towards south Florida and either make a landfall there or move into the Gulf of Mexico next week, possibly as a developing strong hurricane. Unless some other system gets the name first, this will be "Cristobal" a name used in 2002 and 2008 for storms that never amounted to much, so this would be the first hurricane of that name.

My local weather, meanwhile, was cloudy and somewhat cool to start, then a bit warmer with sunshine by afternoon, 22 C for the high.

M.T. Cranium · 23-08-2014 8:26am

Saturday, 23 August, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny intervals, some longer cloudy spells in north and just a few isolated and brief showers there. Highs around 16-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Clouding over from the south and west but clear skies over east Ulster and north Leinster could allow one more chilly night with lows 4-7 C there. Otherwise lows may be reached before midnight (8-10 C) and then temperatures will rise slightly as rain begins.

SUNDAY ... Except for some morning sunshine in the northeast, and late afternoon bright spells in parts of the southwest, most of the day will be overcast with periods of rain, about 10 mm on average, and an interval of stronger winds near the south coast with southeasterly gusts to 70 or 80 km/hr. Highs 15-18 C for most, 17-19 C for southwest.

MONDAY ... Overnight mild and humid with rain becoming intermittent, fog patches, morning lows near 13 C then another period of rainfall that could become heavy especially in parts of the inland south, 15-20 mm potential, highs about 18-19 C, risk of thunderstorms in the southeast. Winds will be rather fresh from the south to southwest in Munster and south Leinster, but will back around to east to northeast elsewhere then turn more northerly. With that, temperatures will fall off to about 15 C.

TUESDAY ... Lingering rain or drizzle ending mid-morning southeast, otherwise variable cloud, but a generally dry day with moderate northeast to north winds and lows of about 10 C, highs near 17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Warmer and rather humid with showers or periods of rain developing, moderate south to southwest winds, highs near 18 to 20 C.

OUTLOOK ... At this point the outlook has improved for the end of the week and the following weekend, probably because models have slowed the progress of what is expected to become tropical storm Cristobal. That may take quite some time to reach even the central Atlantic if it makes the turn near Florida early next week. Then it may reach Ireland in much weakened form if at all by the middle of the following week.

My local weather on Friday was pleasant, hazy sunshine and a bit warmer again with highs of 23 C.

M.T. Cranium · 24-08-2014 7:55am

Sunday, 24 August, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain will gradually spread further east but may not arrive in north Leinster or east Ulster until afternoon (these regions have started quite cold, the temperature at 0600h was only 2 C at Markree, Sligo -- this chill won't be fully dissipated until afternoon). Some heavier bursts with slight risk of a thunderstorm in central to southeast counties mid-day, 10-15 mm potential, with moderate southeast winds developing, some gusts to 70 km/hr, and highs about 16 C, except for west Munster where 18 C is possible late afternoon as a somewhat milder air mass pushes in from the south.

TONIGHT ... A second and possibly heavier band of rain will develop and move into Munster, reaching south Leinster by dawn. This will bring 10 mm overnight and more during the day on Monday. Further north, misty with drizzle or occasional light rain. Lows 8-10 C north, 10-13 C south.

MONDAY ... With a track along the south coast, the second disturbance will turn winds back to the east for most regions, except possibly along the Waterford and Wexford coasts where it could stay southerly for a time. Heavy rain will spread through Munster into south Leinster. 15-20 mm further accumulations are likely there. For most of Connacht, Ulster and north Leinster, rain will be intermittent and not as heavy except for some isolated thundery showers, and amounts will be generally 5-10 mm. Highs will vary from about 14 C in the north to 18 C near the south coast.

TUESDAY ... Rain gradually ending through the early morning, just a few outbreaks of drizzle near south coast later in the day, variable cloud with some sunny breaks and northeasterly breezes during the mid-day and afternoon hours, morning lows 9-11 C and afternoon highs 15-17 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Further rain is likely with a rather warm, humid feel as highs reach 19 or 20 C in some places. Rainfalls of about 10 mm a day seem likely, isolated heavier amounts south-central counties.

FRIDAY could bring a break in the unsettled weather, and SATURDAY is somewhat uncertain but chances of rain will gradually increase with the approach of a slow-moving system timed for Saturday night into Sunday morning. This could drop some rather heavy rainfalls if it develops as shown on early guidance. However, this is not the developing tropical storm near the Bahamas, that may not arrive at all but seems likely to be absorbed into a frontal system over the central Atlantic around the first two days of September. Any rain from this would arrive 3-4 September.

Will update for Britain and North America tomorrow, earlier comments seem to remain valid ... meanwhile, my local weather has returned to very warm, sunny conditions with the high close to 27 C.

M.T. Cranium · 25-08-2014 7:05am

Monday, 25 August, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: New moon occurs today at 3:15 p.m. IST (14:15 UT).

TODAY ... Outbreaks of rain or drizzle will be heavier and more persistent in southern and central counties. There could be a brief break in the overcast between the current band of rain and the core of a low pressure system that will push into Munster this afternoon and evening. However, this dry slot may generate a few thundery showers during the mid-day period too (most likely from about Limerick to Waterford). The later rain could become quite heavy in parts of the south. Overall, rainfall amounts of 10-15 mm will be widespread but 5-10 mm or less in parts of Ulster, and 15-30 mm in parts of southwest Munster. Highs will reach 17 or 18 C and it will feel rather warm and humid. Winds will back into the east then northeast except near the south coast where a southeast to southerly breeze will continue until the low weakens this evening, then winds will become east there as well. Some gusts to about 60 km/hr likely. Fog on hills during rainy spells.

TONIGHT ... Rain gradually ending north and west, becoming intermittent in south and east with a further 5-10 mm there. Winds between east and northeast at about 30-50 km/hr. Mild with lows 11-13 C and some fog.

TUESDAY ... Skies breaking to partly cloudy at times, but still considerable cloud around especially south, best sunshine prospects are in Connacht and Ulster. Highs 15-18 C probably warmer near west coast.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will bring warm, humid conditions with occasional showers and risk of thunderstorms. Lows near 14 C and highs near 19 or 20 C. Winds moderate southeast on Wednesday to southwest by Thursday with some gusts to 60 km/hr.

FRIDAY will see further showers or periods of rain, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY currently appear mostly settled if somewhat cloudy at times, but there could be isolated showers more likely near hills in southeast and south. Highs near 21 C inland, 18-20 C coastal and north.

FURTHER OUTLOOK is uncertain as remnants of Cristobal may drift into the picture by mid-week.

For Britain the picture is similar but today's heavy rain may not begin until later afternoon for some regions and will then last well into Tuesday morning with the clearing pushing slowly south across the Midlands, while the north will see more similar weather to Ireland.

Across North America heat dominates in two regions, the southeastern United States including Texas and parts of the desert southwest as well, and also inland portions of the Pacific northwest region including much of British Columbia. Otherwise, temperatures are generally rather close to normal but there are outbreaks of heavy rain or thunderstorms in many parts of the Great Lakes region, the Midwest and northern plains into the Canadian prairies.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and very warm again, highs near 26C.

M.T. Cranium · 26-08-2014 7:56am

Tuesday, 26 August, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

I have added a rather lengthy astronomical note after the forecasts. Meanwhile, Cristobal has rapidly developed into a hurricane northeast of the Bahamas and appears on track to pass north of Ireland Sunday night or Monday. Effects on the weather in Ireland may actually be more positive than negative, as the circulation will be lifting further north by then.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy at first, some sunny breaks likely mid-day and afternoon from about Clare to Dublin and north, just a few areas of patchy light rain near the south coast this morning, otherwise mainly dry. Highs could reach 19 or 20 C in any sunshine, 16-18 C under cloud. Moderate northeast winds backing to southeast 30-50 km/hr later.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, moderate southeast winds, chance of rain in west Munster. Lows 8-11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Dry at first in north and east, some brighter intervals, but cloudy with showers developing south and west. Mild and humid, moderate southeast to south winds 40-60 km/hr. Highs 18-21 C, warmest ahead of the rain. About 5-10 mm rain on average but 15 mm locally west Munster.

THURSDAY ... Showers and thunderstorms, becoming quite windy in most areas (S-SW 50-80 km/hr) but stronger gusts to 100 km/hr possible around Donegal Bay and Mayo. Lows near 11 C and highs near 18 C. Rainfalls of about 10-15 mm on average. These winds are not associated with Hurricane Cristobal which will be somewhere south of Nova Scotia at this point.

FRIDAY ... Continuing rather windy across the north (from SW to W 50-80 km/hr) but winds easing mid-day and afternoon especially south and central regions. Morning showers followed by some afternoon sunny intervals. Lows around 10 C and highs around 19 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals, pleasantly warm. Lows near 8-10 C and highs in the 19-22 C range.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or periods of rain for northwest, other regions sunny to mid-day then cloudy with late showers. These will be associated with a front attached to remnants of distant "Cristobal" near Iceland at this point.

MONDAY ... Showers continuing, breezy or windy. Highs near 20 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A generally rather warm pattern with brief showery intervals but a reasonable amount of fair weather for the first week of September.

My local weather was sunny with cloudy intervals and quite warm again with highs near 27 C on Monday. See previous day for further details on Britain and North America.

Astronomy note: Mars passes below Saturn in the evening skies over the next two nights. The chances of seeing this are probably better this evening than they will be on the following evening (the closest approach is at 2 p.m. Wednesday more favourably timed for eastern Asia). This is not a really close "conjunction" but interesting to see, and then on the weekend the moon (approaching first quarter) will move very close to Saturn on Sunday evening. Once again, skies may be clear for earlier phases of that event on Saturday night but the close grazing occultation may not be seen due to cloud Sunday night.

M.T. Cranium · 27-08-2014 7:59am

Wednesday, 27 August, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Dry at first in north and east, some brighter intervals with increasing cloud, but for south and west, it will be cloudy most of the day with showers developing south and west. Rather warm and humid, moderate southeast to south winds 40-60 km/hr with an interval of even stronger winds possible in west Munster mid-day (gusts to 90 km/hr may develop). ... Highs 18-20 C, warmest ahead of the rain. About 5-10 mm rain on average but 15 mm locally west Munster and coastal Connacht.

TONIGHT ... Stronger winds easing as they shift from south to southwest, rain continuing to move northeast with a partial clearance following from west Munster into the midlands. Lows 11-13 C.

THURSDAY ... Showers and thunderstorms developing, becoming quite windy in most areas (S-SW 50-80 km/hr) but stronger gusts to 100 km/hr possible around Donegal Bay and Mayo by late afternoon and evening .... Highs will reach about 18 C. Rainfalls of about 10-15 mm on average. These winds are not associated with Hurricane Cristobal which will be somewhere south of Nova Scotia at this point.

FRIDAY ... Continuing rather windy across the north (from SW to W 50-80 km/hr) but winds easing mid-day and afternoon especially south and central regions. Morning showers followed by some afternoon sunny intervals. Lows around 10 C and highs around 19 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals, pleasantly warm. Lows near 8-10 C and highs in the 18-21 C range.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or periods of rain by late afternoon or evening for parts of the northwest, but other regions sunny to mid-day then cloudy with late overnight showers. These will be associated with a front attached to remnants of distant "Cristobal" expected to be moving northeast near Iceland at this point. Lows 8-10 C and highs 19-23 C.

MONDAY ... Showers or early morning thundershowers ending, sunny intervals developing, breezy or windy (from WSW 40-70 km/hr). Lows near 11 C and highs near 20 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A generally rather warm pattern with a reasonable amount of fair weather for the first week of September, warm southeast flow could boost temperatures into mid 20s.

For Britain, most of the wet weather today and Thursday will be fairly similar to that predicted for Ireland except in some parts of the east which will see lesser amounts. The stronger winds, however, will be diminished and only likely to affect the western Isles and nearby parts of Scotland. Any effects from the front attached to Cristobal will be delayed into Monday and that front seems likely to be quite sporadic east of the Irish Sea. However, this track is not really set at this point with some risk of stronger winds in both Ireland and Britain. The warm spell could be even hotter next week in southeast England.

Across North America, the hot weather in the west is set to break down gradually from the northwest just before the (long) weekend. This will push the core of the heat into the plains states. Meanwhile it has warmed somewhat in the east which has had a rather cool summer overall, with some rare (for this year) above normal temperatures likely, although not at record levels.

My local weather was sunny and hot, and where I happened to be, it was over 30 C although 27 C at home. Some lovely cirro-cumulus cloud patterns towards sunset and a good view of the Mars-Saturn conjunction around 10 pm.

M.T. Cranium · 28-08-2014 7:56am

Thursday, 28 August, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Look for specific "Electric Picnic" outlooks in the Friday to Sunday forecasts below using the title EP.

TODAY ... A few sunny intervals this morning, scattered showers and thunderstorms developing, becoming quite windy in most areas (S-SW 50-80 km/hr) but stronger gusts to 90 km/hr possible around Donegal Bay and Mayo by late afternoon and evening .... Highs will reach about 18 C. Rainfalls of about 10-15 mm on average, 15-30 mm northwest but only 5-10 mm parts of southeast. Some parts of the east will be fairly dry most of the day but with isolated heavier showers especially by late afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Periods of rain and windy across the north, but strongest winds easing slightly after midnight, gusts to 90 km/hr near Donegal Bay from WSW. More breezy than windy elsewhere, occasional rain, lows 11-13 C. Rainfalls of about 10 mm fairly widespread, 15-20 mm in some coastal areas north and south.

FRIDAY ... Continuing rather windy across the north (from SW to W 50-80 km/hr, compared with 40-60 km/hr most other regions) but winds easing mid-day and afternoon especially south and central regions. Morning showers followed by some afternoon sunny intervals. Lows around 10 C and highs around 19 C. Rainfalls across north 5-10 mm, elsewhere 2-5 mm and largely ending by mid-day. EP -- a few morning showers, then gradual clearing, breezy from west, temps 17-19 C. Overnight lows into Saturday morning around 11 C with mostly dry but occasionally drizzly conditions.

SATURDAY ... In most regions, sunny intervals, pleasantly warm. Lows near 8-10 C and highs in the 18-21 C range. More cloud and a few showers likely in parts of the north and coastal west. EP -- only a slight chance of showers and about a 60% chance of a dry day with good sunny intervals developing, highs about 19 C. Moderate westerly breezes. Overnight into early Sunday should be dry and mild, lows only falling to about 12 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or periods of rain by late afternoon or evening for parts of the northwest, but other regions sunny to mid-day then cloudy with late overnight showers. These will be associated with a front attached to remnants of distant "Cristobal" expected to be moving northeast near Iceland. At that point Ireland will be in the very warm and increasingly humid subtropical air mass dragged northeast by the hurricane. Morning lows 8-11 C and highs 19-24 C. EP -- There could be some cloud at times but warm or even hot sunshine is likely, with a slight southerly breeze increasing to moderate near the end of the day, highs could reach 23 C. Should note that there is a slight risk of this very warm air creating some instability but at this point it's more likely to arrive overnight after most of the event, crews may be encountering some thundershowers by Monday morning, but these should be fast-moving and brief.

MONDAY ... Showers or morning thundershowers ending, sunny intervals developing, breezy or windy (from WSW 40-70 km/hr). Lows near 15 C and highs near 22 C. EP site would be warm and dry most of the day with brief passing showers and possible thundershowers.

TUESDAY ... Hazy sunshine, very warm. Morning mist or fog patches quickly dissipating. Lows near 11 C and highs near 24 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A generally rather warm pattern with a reasonable amount of fair weather for the first week of September, warm to hot southeast flow could boost temperatures into mid 20s. Misty or foggy late overnights and mornings in some rural areas.

For Britain, most of the wet weather today and Thursday will be fairly similar to that predicted for Ireland except in some parts of the east which will see lesser amounts. The stronger winds, however, will be diminished and only likely to affect the western Isles and nearby parts of Scotland. Any effects from the front attached to Cristobal will be delayed into Monday and that front seems likely to be quite sporadic east of the Irish Sea. However, this track is not really set at this point with some risk of stronger winds in both Ireland and Britain. The warm spell could be even hotter next week in southeast England.

Across North America, western heat is set to end over the next few days and heavy storms are developing in parts of the central plains states ahead of a hot and humid push of Gulf air, but it's very warm and dry ahead of that in the east. Distant and decaying "Marie" off the southwest coast has created huge swells on the California coast with 3-5 metre surf for the California beaches. None of that has made it this far north but we held on to warm sunshine for one more day with highs near 27 C. I did some recycling and the wasps or hornets are gathering en masse, it's that time of year.

M.T. Cranium · 29-08-2014 8:07am

Friday, 29 August, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Look for specific "Electric Picnic" outlooks in the Friday to Sunday forecasts below using the title EP.

TODAY ... Continuing rather windy across the north (from SW to W 50-80 km/hr, compared with 40-60 km/hr most other regions) but winds easing mid-day and afternoon especially south and central regions. Morning showers or periods of rain across much of Connacht and Ulster as well as parts of west Munster and north Leinster, followed by some afternoon sunny intervals. ... Highs around 17 C north and west, 19 C south and east. Rainfalls across north and west 5-10 mm, elsewhere 2-5 mm and in all areas by east Ulster, largely ending by mid-day. EP -- a few morning showers, heavy around 10 a.m. although possibly brief or intermittent, then gradual clearing, breezy from west, temps reaching 18 C. Overnight lows into Saturday morning around 11 C with mostly dry but occasionally drizzly conditions.

TONIGHT ... Showers gradually ending across east Ulster or becoming less frequent, cloudy with a few clear intervals most other regions with just a few isolated showers, more likely near west coast and in parts of west Munster. Lows 9-11 C. EP -- cloudy with clear intervals, slight chance of brief drizzly showers, low near 10 C.

SATURDAY ... In most regions, breezy with isolated showers and sunny intervals, becoming pleasantly warm. Lows near 8-10 C and highs in the 18-21 C range. More cloud and a few showers likely in parts of the north and coastal west. EP -- only a slight chance of showers and about a 60% chance of a dry day with good sunny intervals developing, highs about 19 C. Moderate westerly breezes. Overnight into early Sunday should be dry and mild, lows only falling to about 12 C.

SUNDAY ... After a clear and mild overnight with mist or fog patches developing by morning, and lows 10-13 C, the day becoming very warm and humid with hazy sunshine at times, highs 20-23 C. For parts of the west and northwest, increasing cloud, sea fog hovering near some outer coasts and remnants coming inland as low cloud or mist, then showers or periods of rain by late afternoon or evening. These will be associated with a front attached to remnants of distant "Cristobal" expected to be moving northeast near Iceland. Winds rather light south to southwest for most, but moderate southwest by afternoon near west coast, strong gusts offshore (SSW 50-70 km/hr). EP -- There could be some cloud at times but warm or even hot sunshine may burn through the cloud at times, with a slight southerly breeze increasing to moderate near the end of the day, highs could reach 23 C. Should note that there is a slight risk of this very warm air creating some instability but at this point it's more likely to arrive overnight after most of the event, crews may be encountering some thundershowers by early Monday morning, but these should be fast-moving and brief.

MONDAY ... Scattered showers or morning thundershowers ending, sunny intervals developing, breezy or windy (from WSW 40-70 km/hr). Lows near 15 C and highs near 22 C. EP site would be warm and dry most of the day with brief passing showers and possible thundershowers.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY ... Hazy sunshine, very warm. Morning mist or fog patches quickly dissipating. Lows near 11 C and highs 24-26 C.

OUTLOOK ... Turning a bit cooler Friday-Saturday but remaining mostly fine with intervals of cloud and sun, highs 19-22 C. Then warming up again especially in south where it could return to mid 20s around Sunday and Monday 7th-8th.

See previous forecast for comments on Britain and North America, meanwhile my local weather turned somewhat cooler with morning cloud, afternoon sunny intervals, highs near 23 C.

M.T. Cranium · 30-08-2014 6:56am

Saturday, 30 August, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

No significant changes in the weekend outlook, an improving trend for most places today, interesting cloud formations likely with warm fronts generated by the warm sector ahead of Cristobal moving in from the west ... some "lens clouds" may be seen over higher terrain west of Cork ... then fair skies tonight and hazy sunshine at times on Sunday, with very warm temperatures inland.

TODAY ... Cloudy to start, some brief sunny intervals developing, but the trend will be for cloud to lift to higher base elevations (from stratocumulus to altocumulus and some cirrus visible too), which should allow some filtered sunshine at times. Patchy light rain or drizzle will be increasingly confined to the north by mid-day and some parts of the south and east will enjoy a basically dry day. Highs about 18 C in moderate WSW winds, somewhat stronger across the north with gusts to 60 km/hr there.

TONIGHT ... Fair skies, some haze and later fog or mist patches in lower lying rural areas. Patchy light rain or drizzle may linger near the far northern shores and sea fog may drift inland near south and west coasts. Lows 8-12 C.

SUNDAY ... Despite some cloudy intervals, very warm hazy sunshine will boost temperatures towards highs of 22-24 C. Later in the day cloud will invade from the west followed by sporadic and rather brief showers, and the slight risk of an evening thunderstorm in Connacht. Winds over west coast districts will increase to SW 35-55 km/hr but other regions will have rather light southerly breezes all day. Photographers take note, some very interesting cloud formations could evolve over the southeast towards evening.

MONDAY ... Early morning showers with the chance of brief thunder, very mild with lows only falling to about 16 C. Then the day should see gradual clearing with moderate southwest winds, any cloud left behind by this weak front should dissipate over the Irish Sea by mid-day, except that some western coastlines may see low cloud or sea fog at times. Highs inland near 22 C, holding at 18 C west and south coasts.

TUESDAY ... Sunny and very pleasant, after some morning fog patches that could be dense in some low-lying rural locations, an alert may be required for that closer to the time. Morning lows 7-10 C and afternoon highs 21-23 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will probably be even warmer in light southeast winds, although that could cool off the south and east coasts slightly, otherwise highs 22-25 C. Overnights will be clear until fog develops, and lows will be around 9-12 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will see a slightly cooler but dry air mass building in from the west, possibly preceded by brief light showers during a weak frontal passage. Then the sun should be back out at times with highs 17-21 C.

The further outlook is for very warm weather to return at times in the second week of September, and quite dry overall.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with sprinkles of light rain at times and a high of 19 C.

M.T. Cranium · 31-08-2014 6:53am

Sunday, 31 August, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Despite some cloudy intervals, very warm hazy sunshine will boost temperatures towards highs of 20-24 C. Later in the day cloud will invade from the west followed by sporadic and rather brief showers, and the slight risk of an evening thunderstorm in Connacht. Winds over west coast districts will increase to SW 35-55 km/hr but other regions will have rather light southerly breezes all day. Photographers take note, some very interesting cloud formations could evolve over the southeast towards evening.

TONIGHT ... Showers and possibly a brief thundershower in the northern and central counties, while the south could remain largely dry. Average rainfalls only about 2-3 mm, locally 5-10 mm is possible north-central. Very mild with lows only falling to 14-16 C.

MONDAY ... Early morning showers with the chance of brief thunder, very mild with lows only falling to about 16 C. Then the day should see gradual clearing with moderate southwest winds, any cloud left behind by this weak front should dissipate over the Irish Sea by mid-day, except that some western coastlines may see low cloud or sea fog at times. Highs inland near 22 C, holding at 18 C west and south coasts.

TUESDAY ... Sunny and very pleasant, after some morning fog patches that could be dense in some low-lying rural locations, an alert may be required for that closer to the time. Morning lows 7-10 C and afternoon highs 21-23 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will probably be even warmer in light southeast winds, although that could cool off the south and east coasts slightly, otherwise highs 22-25 C. Overnights will be clear until fog develops, and lows will be around 9-12 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY, the outlook has changed somewhat as a weak low could form in the southeast to east flow pattern, and bring some light and rather scattered rainfalls at times to the south. North is more likely to remain dry, temperatures will drop off somewhat to highs near with highs 17-21 C.

The further outlook is for pleasantly warm weather to return at times in the second week of September, and quite dry overall, although some dense fog appears quite likely most nights.

My local weather on Saturday was cloudy with brief showers and the odd sunny interval, highs near 19 C.

M.T. Cranium · 01-09-2014 7:49am

Monday, 1 September, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rather cloudy at first, then some hazy sunshine away from west and south facing coasts. Quite warm and humid, highs 19-21 C. Light winds especially inland south.

TONIGHT ... Hazy skies will turn foggy later, lows 8-11 C. Some dense fog by sunrise.

TUESDAY ... Fog or mist slow to lift in some places, hazy sunshine developing by late morning or mid-day, warm. Highs 20-22 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Guidance has split somewhat into two themes, one is for rather warm hazy sunshine by day and fog at night, the other is a more cloudy outcome, so don't be surprised if there isn't a lot of sunshine, but temperatures should be at least near 20 C if not a bit warmer in some inland locations in light southeasterly winds.

FRIDAY and the WEEKEND are most likely to see a continued mild, dry pattern with just a slight chance of rain near south coast, although one or two outliers in the guidance show considerable rain developing, so here again, the outcome is a bit uncertain. Temperatures are likely to be around 18-20 C.

Then next week seems likely to remain settled and rather warm with highs at least 19-21 C and possibly a little higher in central and western counties in a continued southeasterly flow.

Britain should have very similar conditions to the above, and across North America it is generally warmer than normal with the exception of some parts of western Canada where it's closer to seasonal averages. Some areas of rain have developed along the frontal boundary in the northern plains states. Meanwhile, my local weather was partly cloudy with brief showers, the high near 20 C on Sunday.

M.T. Cranium · 02-09-2014 7:58am

Tuesday, 2 September, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Extensive morning cloud with some hazy sunshine spreading north, then intervals of dull overcast and brighter hazy weather, almost calm in most places, with highs 17 to 21 C depending on how much sunshine gets through in various places. The warmest locations will probably be inland south to west-central counties as more of a marine influence will be felt near east coast and cloud may be more stubborn in the north.

TONIGHT ... A few clear intervals but mostly cloudy then some areas becoming foggy towards sunrise. Dense fog is possible especially across parts of the inland south. Lows 8 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, rather warm again, highs 17 to 22 C, light southeast winds. Some persistent mist or fog near south or east coasts but not drifting very far inland.

THURSDAY ... Rather extensive morning mist or fog with morning lows near 10 to 12 C, then mostly cloudy with some sunny intervals, highs 17 to 22 C. Some drizzle or light rain could brush parts of the outer west coast as it moves slowly northward mostly offshore. Elsewhere, a mix of low cloud and hazy sunshine will persist. Light to moderate southeast winds backing slowly to east-northeast.

FRIDAY ... Winds may turn more to northeast although little change in the weather overall, with morning fog or mist, lows 8-11 C, then the day cloudy with a few sunny intervals, highs 17-20 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat warmer in a stronger southeast flow, but once again this will back off to east-northeast during the second week of the month, so temperatures may peak around 22-23 C early next week then fall back to 17-20 C. Most nights will become foggy and this may persist into the late morning as mist or low cloud in some cases. The warmest weather will probably be experienced in the inland south to west-central counties through this period.

Very similar for Britain, although perhaps a trend to more daytime sunshine and early morning dense fog in parts of east-central England.

Meanwhile, across North America, the jet stream is now fairly close to the U.S.- Canada border so that temperatures are generally on the warm side of normal in most parts of the U.S. and close to normal in southern Canada. Heavy showers or thunderstorms are breaking out in two zones, one across the Great Lakes into northern New England, and the other across the Rockies into the western prairies. My local weather on (Labour Day) Monday was cloudy with a few sunny breaks, showers in the area although staying dry for most. Highs were close to 20 C.

M.T. Cranium · 03-09-2014 7:46am

Wednesday, 3 September, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Although there is not much change in the guidance from now to Friday, what has changed is a stronger signal for a return to mobile westerly flow patterns through next week -- it does become quite warm again after a few cooler days, then a longer-range signal for colder weather in about two weeks.

TODAY ... Cloudy with some intervals of hazy sunshine developing, rather warm with highs 18-21 C. Some persistent fog or mist in low-lying areas may last until late morning. Light southeast winds.

TONIGHT ... Hazy with extensive fog or mist, some dense fog developing with poor or near-zero visibilities possible. Lows 7-11 C.

THURSDAY ... Most places will start foggy, then become partly cloudy and warm with highs 19-22 C. Western counties will see less fog but more cloud through the day (highs 18-20 C) with light rain brushing some far western coastal areas. A light rain may spread into much of Connacht by evening (1-3 mm).

FRIDAY ... Isolated showers, winds becoming more northerly and turning slightly colder in the daytime. Lows 7-10 C and highs 15-19 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers in Ulster and north Connacht, lows about 5-7 C and highs 15-19 C.

SUNDAY ... Extensive morning fog, some hazy sunshine developing, a bit warmer again, lows 4-7 C and highs 18-21 C.

OUTLOOK ... Turning quite warm next week, highs possibly reaching 22-24 C then gradually returning to normal mid-September conditions followed by a possible colder turn about two weeks from now.

Will update Britain and North America forecasts in a day or two, meanwhile, my local weather on Tuesday was wet (for a change) with quite a steady rain all morning and part of the afternoon, highs only 16-17 C.

M.T. Cranium · 04-09-2014 7:49am

Thursday, 4 September, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few intervals of hazy sunshine in eastern counties, with a slight chance of rain (1-3 mm at most) near outer west coast. Quite warm especially where the sun breaks through, highs 18-22 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers will begin to edge further east and also become somewhat heavier in the northwest, but most other areas will remain dry if rather misty to foggy in places. Lows 8-13 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers or periods of light rain, with a cooling trend on northerly breezes, will begin to cover more of Ulster, Connacht and north Leinster by mid-day, while it remains rather dry and mild to warm in the south. Highs may struggle to reach 15-16 C in the north but should easily make 18-20 C in the south. The showers and slightly cooler weather will arrive in the south by evening.

SATURDAY ... Overnight showers with lows 7-9 C will begin to dissipate during the morning to leave partly cloudy or even sunny skies with moderate northerly winds at times, cool with highs near 15 C north, 18 C south.

SUNDAY ... Mainly clear skies with some patchy cloud near north coast, a cool start with lows 3-6 C and isolated ground frost, then sunshine and highs around 16 to 18 C.

MONDAY ... Extensive morning fog, lows 4-8 C, but a warmer day to follow with some hazy sunshine, highs 19-22 C.

TUESDAY ... Little change, morning fog, lows 5-10 C, mid-day sun and quite warm, highs 19-23 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... An increasing chance of showers or periods of rain in southerly winds, although this rain may be confined to western counties for much of the time, and staying rather warm with much milder nights due to the cloud, lows near 12 C and highs near 20 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... If there is any significant rainfall it should be followed by another dry spell lasting several days. Guidance is rather mixed at this point from one model to another, and the only real trend is for near or somewhat above normal temperatures.

My local weather on Wednesday was increasingly pleasant with sunshine more frequent towards the afternoon, and therefore warmer again near 21 C.

M.T. Cranium · 05-09-2014 7:56am

Friday, 5 September, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Showers or periods of light rain, with a cooling trend on northerly breezes, will begin to cover more of Ulster, Connacht and north Leinster by mid-day, while it remains rather dry and mild to warm in the south. Highs may struggle to reach 15-16 C in the north but should easily make 18-20 C in the south. The showers and slightly cooler weather will arrive in the south by evening.

TONIGHT ... Light rain will move slowly south into central then south-central counties, while the north gradually clears. Amounts only 3-5 mm but the rain may be rather persistent west of Dublin. Lows 8-10 C. Becoming rather breezy after midnight in western and northern counties (NW to N 30-50 km/hr).

SATURDAY ... Overnight showers or light rain will begin to dissipate during the morning in parts of south Leinster and east Munster, to leave partly cloudy or even sunny skies with moderate northerly winds at times, which is how the day is likely to begin elsewhere. Rather cool with highs near 15 C north, and 16-18 C south.

SUNDAY ... Mainly clear skies with some patchy cloud near north coast, a cool start with lows 3-6 C and isolated ground frost, then sunshine and highs around 16 to 18 C.

MONDAY ... Extensive morning fog, lows 4-8 C, but a slightly warmer day to follow with some hazy sunshine, highs 17-21 C.

TUESDAY ... Little change, morning fog, lows 5-10 C, mid-day sun and quite warm, highs 19-23 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... An increasing chance of showers or periods of rain in southerly winds, although this rain may be confined to western counties for much of the time, and staying rather warm with much milder nights due to the cloud, lows near 12 C and highs near 20 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... If there is any significant rainfall it should be followed by another dry spell lasting several days. Guidance is rather mixed at this point from one model to another, and the only real trend is for near or somewhat above normal temperatures. The European model is keeping the flow blocked from the southeast on the basis of a long-duration low to the south and southwest, but this scenario is only "medium confidence" and a more mobile pattern is also quite possible.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and warm with a high near 23 C.

M.T. Cranium · 06-09-2014 7:27am

Saturday, 6 September, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Drizzle or light rain in the southeast will end around late morning but otherwise, expect gradual clearing from the north, with slight risk of a secondary band of light rain forming near the north coast by afternoon. Moderate northerly winds will make it feel cooler, with highs generally 16-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Further clearing except in far north where drizzle may come and go, and temperatures could fall to 3-7 C in rural areas with a touch of ground frost in low-lying areas.

SUNDAY ... Mostly sunny, except for some persistent cloud near north coast where light rain may be noted. Highs 16-19 C.

MONDAY ... Morning fog patches, lows 4-8 C, then a bit warmer with sunshine at times, highs near 19 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY ... Foggy to start, then warm sunshine, lows each day near 8 C and highs near 22 C with 24 C possible inland south and west.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will likely continue warm and dry for most, with rain edging closer to the southwest, at least if most guidance is correct, some models are keeping that system swirling around near the Azores through the entire forecast period. Lows near 10 C and highs near 23 C except where cooler sea breezes (east coast in particular) bring 18-20 C temperatures a few kilometres inland.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Most guidance suggests a showery and unsettled weekend (13th-14th) followed by another period of higher pressure during the following week.

My local weather on Friday was sunny and warm with a high near 24 C.

M.T. Cranium · 07-09-2014 7:44am

Sunday, 7 September, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly sunny, except for some persistent cloud near north coast where light rain may be recorded. Still a bit on the cool side at least in the shade, as there won't be much more than a moderate breeze. Highs 16-19 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear with a few fog patches developing, risk of ground frost in some inland locations, lows generally 4-8 C, but could be 1-2 C in frost-prone areas.

MONDAY ... Morning fog patches, lows 4-8 C, then a bit warmer with sunshine at times, highs near 19 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY ... Foggy to start, then warm sunshine, lows each day near 8 C and highs near 22 C with 24 C possible inland south and west.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will likely continue warm and dry for most, with rain edging closer to the southwest, at least if most guidance is correct, some models are keeping that system swirling around near the Azores through the entire forecast period. Lows near 10 C and highs near 23 C except where cooler sea breezes (east coast in particular) bring 18-20 C temperatures a few kilometres inland.

OUTLOOK ... Once again the outlook has shifted towards a longer dry spell as the Azores disturbance takes perhaps one too many laps for its own good and (according to the latest guidance) largely dies out before remnants merge with a weak frontal system near Ireland by about Wednesday 17th. Even that may not bring rain to all areas before yet another strong high develops, and that one may interact with a late-September hurricane that follows a path somewhat similar to Cristobal, towards Iceland, with the effect of dragging very warm air back towards Ireland (this would be two weeks down the road and could be helping to prolong both a warm spell and a dry interval).

My own local weather was sunny and hot with highs near 28 C.

M.T. Cranium · 08-09-2014 7:48am

Monday, 8 September, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly sunny and a little warmer by mid-day (than yesterday) in some parts of the south, highs 15-17 C north and 18-20 C south. Light winds will increase the feeling of warmth.

TONIGHT ... Clear except for a few isolated fog patches and with the risk of ground frost inland north. Lows there 0 to 3 C, otherwise 2 to 6 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny with a few cloudy intervals, once again slightly warmer, highs 17 to 21 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, the overnight certainly warmer (lows 4-8 C but near 10 C south coast) and the day likely to be a degree or two warmer in some places, highs 18-22 C. Moderate southeast winds developing.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm, somewhat more humid. Lows 8-12 C and highs 19-22 C. Moderate southeast winds with some gusts to 60 km/hr, so likely to be warmest well away from the east and south coasts.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, isolated showers in south. Warm and more humid. Lows 11-14 C and highs 18-22 C.

OUTLOOK ... The Friday weather will probably be similar to the weekend with isolated showers in an otherwise dry and settled if rather cloudy southeasterly flow. Highs continuing near or a little above 20 C.

Over Britain, it's a similar story although parts of the north will see a few showers at times today. North America is experiencing some late summer heat in most regions and a strong frontal system is developing over the Rockies, set to move towards the Great Lakes mid-week. This is pulling in some colder air from the central Canadian arctic and snow has moved as far south as northern B.C. despite the fact it was sunny and hot in the south, my own weather on Sunday featured another high near 28 C.

M.T. Cranium · 09-09-2014 7:21am

Tuesday, 9 September, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

That was a full moon last night, as of 0238h IST.

TODAY ... Sunny with a few cloudy intervals, once again slightly warmer, highs 17 to 21 C.

TONIGHT ... This may be the last night in this settled spell with a slight chill in the air as skies remain largely clear, local fog patches and lows 4-8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, highs 18-22 C. Moderate southeast winds developing 30-50 km/hr in south.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm, somewhat more humid. Lows 8-12 C and highs 19-22 C. Moderate southeast winds with some gusts to 60 km/hr, so likely to be warmest well away from the east and south coasts.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, isolated showers in southwest towards evening. Warm and more humid. Lows 11-14 C and highs 18-22 C.

OUTLOOK ... The Friday weather will probably be similar to the weekend with isolated showers in an otherwise dry and settled if rather cloudy southeasterly flow. Highs continuing near or a little above 20 C. If there's more cloud than sun temperatures could drop back to 18-19 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... One has to pity the models (and the forecasters) as each day brings a new and somewhat different fate for the slow-moving Azores region low -- the new theme is that it will make several more attempts to get moving and eventually merge with low pressure from the western Atlantic not too far from Ireland, but in about ten days to two weeks from now. That would imply a continuation of the dry spell but some potential for quite a wet breakdown eventually. Something entirely different might be the big thing by tomorrow as far as this evolution goes.

My local weather on Monday continued mostly sunny but the temperature dropped considerably to about 22 C as some of the cold air over northern B.C. and Alberta filtered in from the northeast. It was still quite pleasant with some altocumulus cloud spreading in around sunset.

M.T. Cranium · 10-09-2014 8:05am

FORECAST UPDATE _ Wed 10 Sept 2014
____________________________________

The dry spell will continue with only slight changes day to day. There will be a trend towards more cloud at least at mid to high levels, and a stronger southeasterly breeze. Highs will continue a very slow and perhaps somewhat unsteady upward trend but with the stronger breezes, some eastern and southern coastal locations may actually begin to feel cooler. So look for highs to edge up into the low 20s away from those coasts, 17-19 C near them. Nights will be generally a bit milder because of increasing cloud but any prolonged clear intervals will be increasingly likely to promote dense fog (because there's a bit more moisture in the air mass) and this will be more prevalent in south central valley locations.

There are few indications of this dry, settled spell breaking down within the relatively reliable time frame of 8-10 days, but the odd shower is possible as weak remnants of fronts are drawn close to Ireland by the upper level winds which are more southerly than the surface east to southeast breezes.

So for specifics, would say, on average:

TODAY, mostly sunny 18-20
TONIGHT clear intervals, dense fog patches, 6-9
THURSDAY partly cloudy 19-21
FRIDAY cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated showers 19-22
WEEKEND cloudy with a few sunny intervals, 17-20
NEXT WEEK similar, highs 18-21

My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy with some sunny breaks and a high near 19 C.

M.T. Cranium · 10-09-2014 8:06am

FORECAST UPDATE _ Wed 10 Sept 2014
____________________________________

The dry spell will continue with only slight changes day to day. There will be a trend towards more cloud at least at mid to high levels, and a stronger southeasterly breeze. Highs will continue a very slow and perhaps somewhat unsteady upward trend but with the stronger breezes, some eastern and southern coastal locations may actually begin to feel cooler. So look for highs to edge up into the low 20s away from those coasts, 17-19 C near them. Nights will be generally a bit milder because of increasing cloud but any prolonged clear intervals will be increasingly likely to promote dense fog (because there's a bit more moisture in the air mass) and this will be more prevalent in south central valley locations.

There are few indications of this dry, settled spell breaking down within the relatively reliable time frame of 8-10 days, but the odd shower is possible as weak remnants of fronts are drawn close to Ireland by the upper level winds which are more southerly than the surface east to southeast breezes.

So for specifics, would say, on average:

TODAY, mostly sunny 18-20
TONIGHT clear intervals, dense fog patches, 6-9
THURSDAY partly cloudy 19-21
FRIDAY cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated showers 19-22
WEEKEND cloudy with a few sunny intervals, 17-20
NEXT WEEK similar, highs 18-21

My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy with some sunny breaks and a high near 19 C.

derekon · 10-09-2014 10:16pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

FORECAST UPDATE _ Wed 10 Sept 2014
____________________________________

The dry spell will continue with only slight changes day to day. There will be a trend towards more cloud at least at mid to high levels, and a stronger southeasterly breeze. Highs will continue a very slow and perhaps somewhat unsteady upward trend but with the stronger breezes, some eastern and southern coastal locations may actually begin to feel cooler. So look for highs to edge up into the low 20s away from those coasts, 17-19 C near them. Nights will be generally a bit milder because of increasing cloud but any prolonged clear intervals will be increasingly likely to promote dense fog (because there's a bit more moisture in the air mass) and this will be more prevalent in south central valley locations.

There are few indications of this dry, settled spell breaking down within the relatively reliable time frame of 8-10 days, but the odd shower is possible as weak remnants of fronts are drawn close to Ireland by the upper level winds which are more southerly than the surface east to southeast breezes.

So for specifics, would say, on average:

TODAY, mostly sunny 18-20
TONIGHT clear intervals, dense fog patches, 6-9
THURSDAY partly cloudy 19-21
FRIDAY cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated showers 19-22
WEEKEND cloudy with a few sunny intervals, 17-20
NEXT WEEK similar, highs 18-21

My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy with some sunny breaks and a high near 19 C.

Love the new format MT - a few lines painting a general picture of the weather in Ireland over the medium term followed by a much easier to read glance at the coming 5 days' temperatures and weather type.

D

M.T. Cranium · 10-09-2014 11:37pm

It was so nice, I posted it twice.

M.T. Cranium · 11-09-2014 7:48am

Thursday, 11 September, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Just a note to say that I am going on a fairly extensive road trip that involves some business matters back in eastern Canada much like last year's saga, and this may keep me away from this thread at times. I am fairly sure that I will be off-line until around Monday now. Fortunately the same weather will be waiting for me when I return. So it appears anyway.

TODAY may start out quite foggy or misty especially in western and southern inland districts. The sun may be out earlier for other regions but eventually most places should break into warm sunshine, although some cloud might skim past western parts of Connacht from time to time. Highs will reach about 21-22 C for those not affected by cooler sea breezes in a southeast breeze.

TONIGHT will see a return to dense fog in places and lows generally 7-9 C.

FRIDAY will perhaps be more partly cloudy than sunny as fragments of the distant storm to the southwest could break off and drift across Ireland (south and west in particular). But changes will be subtle and some will have a very similar day to today, with highs once again hitting the 21-22 C range in places.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY are likely to bring about equal portions of cloud and sunshine after some scattered foggy conditions early in the days. Morning lows will be around 8-10 C and highs will perhaps drop back to 19-20 C as breezes will tend to be stronger and a little backed towards the east.

This trend will continue next week with winds becoming moderate east to southeast and about a two-thirds cloud to clear sky mixture at times, but temperatures will only drop slightly if at all by day, while lows will be milder, so look for an overall daily range from about 11 C to 19 C.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly sunny and about 17 C. You may have heard on the news that parts of Alberta got 15-20 cm of snow which brought down tree limbs in some places in Calgary and caused a major power interruption there. As far as I can recall, this is the earliest accumulating snow at those elevations of the foothills in modern times. Daytime temperatures were as much as 20 degrees below normal.

Danno · 12-09-2014 9:58am

TODAY: A light SE to S drift will bring sunny spells and cloudier periods as plates of cloud get caught up in the benign flow within the high pressure. Temperatures will range 17c to 18c along east and south facing coasts, but rising up to 21c or 22c inland and further west - with areas sheltered from the SE breeze feeling very pleasant. Overnight: Cool inland with clear spells developing and as temperatures drop to around 5c to 8c fog will develop once more - some dense local patches. Along the coasts of the south and east, a light breeze will keep it milder and some cloud will drift in from time to time. Lows here 8c to 11c.

SATURDAY: A very similar day to Friday, sunny spells and passing cloudier spells in a light to moderate SE breeze after any early morning mist and fog lifts. Temperatures once again breaching 20c away from southern and eastern coasts. OVERNIGHT: Becoming breezy in southern and southwestern regions, so no fog in these areas as high cloud builds towards the coast there. Lows of 9c to 12c here; across the inland north and northwest, some fog will develop under clearing skies as winds will be lighter there. Lows of 5c to 9c.

SUNDAY: A breezy day for many, though it will still be pleasant enough in parts of the NW sheltered from the southeast breeze. More cloud around, especially across southern regions. Highs of 14c to 17c along eastern and southern coasts, rising to 19c or 20c inland and west, with highest values across the northwest. OVERNIGHT: Rather cloudy and breezy. Lows of 7c to 12c, coolest across inland ulster and parts of the NW where some local fog may develop as winds will be lightest here.

MONDAY: With low pressure continuing to approach from the S/SW the pressure gradient will tighten - so a notably breezy day is in store making it feel cool when compared to recent days with east winds blowing. Highs will range 13c to 15c along eastern and southern coastal counties and 15c to 17c across western and northwestern regions. A mix of sunshine and cloud with more cloud further south where some drizzle or light showers may drift in from time to time.

OUTLOOK: High pressure drifts slowly away allowing a low pressure off the SW to influence more and more of our weather. Winds will back south to southeast, so a rise in temperatures once again, but showers will begin to develop around midweek and intensify as each day progresses. Some thundery showers possible later in the week also.

highdef · 16-09-2014 9:35am

No forecasts for a few days so I'll give it a shot

Well it looks like the fine settled weather is to continue for the next while with temperatures set to rise again in most areas from tomorrow however easterly breezes will pick up a little which will take the edge of the temperatures in the eastern half of the country and most especially near eastern and possibly some southern coasts at times. Mist and fog will probably become less of an issue as the days pass due to slightly higher wind speeds however some fog patches cannot be ruled out especially in sheltered areas and valleys as humidity levels will also be increasing.

At the moment we have high pressure over Scandinavia and low west of Iberia. This is the reason behind the current stable and settled weather. Over the coming weekend it looks like the Scandy high will push east into Russia only to be replaced by another area of high pressure which will move into from the west. At the same time, the low pressure near Iberia will begin to fill. The net effect of this is that winds should fall light again over the weekend and into the early days of next week. However there will also be a slight drop in air pressure over the weekend so there is an increasing threat of a thundery outbreak which will be helped by the higher temperatures and humidity levels. At the moment Friday and Saturday are looking like the best days for potential storms. There will be a lot of available energy in 2 distinct parts of the country - The west and midwest and possibly the east. The western storms would be home grown and the eastern ones would be imports from the UK so a possible night time show for dwellers in the east. Again, this is currently only a risk but just mentioning it as a possibility.

To keep in M.T's format, the short summary is as follows:

TODAY, fog clearing to give sunny spells in most areas, not wall to wall 17-20
TONIGHT clear intervals, dense fog patches in sheltered areas, 10 - 14
WEDNESDAY partly cloudy with sunny spells, breeziest in southern and south-eastern areas 19-22
THURSDAY partly cloudy with sunny intervals, winds becoming quite light by evening. Chance of isolated showers in the west/mid-west 19-23
FRIDAY Light winds mainly from an eastern direction. Mix of sunshine and some cloud. Risk of heavy thunderstorms breaking out in western and mid-western areas during the afternoon and evening which could give spot flooding due to the slow moving nature of the showers. In addition, storms could move into eastern coastal areas during the evening/early night 17 - 22 but much lower in any showers
WEEKEND A similar setup for Saturday chances of showers dropping on Sunday. Light winds both days, 17-21 both days

NEXT WEEK staying settled until midweek, highs 18-21 - Current signs show that a breakdown is very likely from Thursday onwards as the Atlantic low pressure systems finally get their way and get back to their more usual paths over Ireland and GB. Any areas that do not get any precipitation from showers as we head into this weekend in southern and eastern areas will be getting perilously close to drought conditions during the early days of next week, something that is not at all common at this time of year.

M.T. Cranium · 17-09-2014 2:41am

Thanks for the forecast posts, have been a bit overwhelmed by court business in Ottawa (again) and very little internet time. As I am still somewhat "bagged" and the situation is changing so gradually, would imagine you'll get more insightful details from these same sources or others who are able to keep a more continuous watch. I may post again in a few days and will keep an eye on things to make sure we have a forecast of some recent origin available here.

On the way east, there was the bizarre sight of snow cover around Canmore to Calgary Alberta -- this usually doesn't start until considerably later into the month or in October. In the city of Calgary you could see that many small trees had lost a branch or two -- the deciduous trees there had not even begun to turn colour when this hit. And while there had been no snow further east, it remained quite chilly all the way through to Ottawa and has not warmed up much, about 16 C with some sun at times today. Slight frost expected outside the city by end of the week. Back home I hear it's sunny and hot (28-30 C yesterday).

highdef · 17-09-2014 12:48pm

I'll keep it much shorter today due to time constraints in work:

Cloud clearing somewhat from the south during the day. Like yesterday, there won't be wall to wall sunshine but it will feel quite warm in any sunshine as humidity is rising to rather high levels. Best chance of good sunny breaks are likely in the middle third of the country. Southern and northern areas may hang on to a bit more cloud and there will scattered outbreaks of rain and drizzle in the southwest of the country. It will be rather breezy in the southern half of the country and to a lesser extent along eastern areas. Top temps will range from about 17 - 21/22°, coolest in the duller and wetter areas and along coasts exposed to the breeze.

Tonight: Staying mild and humid with mist and fog in sheltered areas. Some patch light rain or drizzle dotted around the place too. Winds will ease during the night but will still remain quite breezy in extreme southern areas.

Tomorrow: Lighter winds more or less everywhere combined with high humidities will mean it will feel warm or very warm in any sunshine. There will be cloudy periods as well and there is an increasing chance of some showers breaking out in the afternoon, mainly in the southern half of the country and moreso in the western side of this half. Top temps around 21/22°

Friday: Winds fairly light, high humidity and temperatures in the high teens to low 20's. Sun sunshine but cloud bubbling up in many areas, especially midland, southern and western areas bringing some showers by afternoon/evening. Showers are likely to be very heavy or torrential with thunderstorm activity in many of them. Spot flooding could also be an issue, not helped by the generally very dry ground so there could be a lot of surface run off as the dry soil will be less able to absorb the heavy rain than moister soil could. There is also a chance of UK import thunderstorms arriving into eastern areas in the evening. If so, they could also give very heavy rainfall and thunderstorm activity well into the evening or early night.

Weekend: A good deal fresher and a few degrees cooler with highest temperatures generally in the high teens, possibly touching 20° in favoured locations. Winds quite light on both days with Sunday looking like being the better of the two days as it is likely to be sunnier.

A slow breakdown is likely during next week with normal Atlantic service likely to be fully in force by Wednesday night/Thursday after a few days of the Atlantic trying its best to exert its influence over us. The eastern half of the country will get the best of the weather for Monday to Wednesday with some fairly pleasant weather on Monday and Wednesday. Most areas will see some rain on Tuesday. Winds will be quite light on all 3 days and although temperatures will probably only get to the high teens at most, it will feel pleasantly warm in the late September sun.

The longer term outlook is not great as we enter into October. There are tentative signs that things may settle down at the start of October but it's too far away to be in any way sure and things are likely to change again. In any case, we will surely be talking about the risk of snow once the Atlantic is back in action.

M.T. Cranium · 19-09-2014 3:54am

Friday, 19 September, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Somewhat less hectic pace now allows me to give these forecasts the time they deserve, so I will try to get my head back into the game. Thanks to Danno and Highdef for keeping the thread alive and well.

TODAY ... Warm and humid with outbreaks of thundery showers in the southeast and some central counties, these tending to shift further west mid-day and afternoon, to be followed by another round of possibly quite heavy showers or even storms for the southeast by this evening. Further north, some scattered light rain or showers, but longer dry intervals. Highs about 20 or 21 C for many, a bit cooler in far north and near south, east coasts. Some rainfalls of 10-20 mm and locally even heavier downpours possible, risk of spot flooding. Watch for updates.

TONIGHT ... Further heavy showers or thunderstorms in south, partly to mostly cloudy north. Lows 10-13 C.

SATURDAY ... Gradually clearing, although considerable cloud at times on Saturday with isolated showers in a northeasterly breeze, highs 17-19 C west and south, 15-17 C north and east.

SUNDAY and MONDAY should be mostly sunny with cloudy intervals more likely in north. Morning lows 4-8 C and afternoon highs 17-19 C.

TUESDAY will see a return to warmer weather again in southwest winds and highs may reach 21 C.

OUTLOOK ... Showers or periods of rain heavier west and north by mid-week although a return to warm, dry conditions may follow. The average high for the period from mid-week to end of month will be above normal by 2-3 degrees, or around 18-20 C. Nights likely to be mild and sometimes foggy.

Over in what's left of Britain, scattered heavy thunderstorms possible today in the south. Otherwise fairly similar to above. North America remains rather warm in most western regions and quite cool in east, in fact where I am now (Ottawa, Ontario) skies are clear and it has dropped from 16 C at noon to 7 C at 10 p.m. with the risk of frost in outlying areas by Friday morning here.

I will try to update but if other forum members see very active weather developing, feel free to update too. Thanks.

M.T. Cranium · 20-09-2014 5:52am

UPDATE _ Saturday 20 September 2014
___________________________________

No big changes in outlook, just a few notes of interest. The developing dry spell from later today into Tuesday morning (mid-day east) will have potential for some dense fog because of strong inversion conditions. With the lower sun angle nowadays, this fog may persist to about 0930 or 1000h in many areas Sunday, Monday and (south/east) Tuesday mornings, prepare for some delays if you have longer road trips although many routes may not be too badly affected. Later those same days should become very pleasant in sunshine.

A band of moderate rain will likely sweep through on Tuesday but will be losing some of its potential from west to east, 15 mm west but perhaps 5-10 mm east. Thereafter, quite warm in a generally WSW flow with some very warm upper level temperatures indicating the potential for temperatures at the surface to reach lower 20s where air mixes down well. Downslope effects to east of hills will make those areas especially warm even well to the north in this scenario. Over in England also, I'm expecting to see some near record warmth at times in places like Tyneside and north Wales due to this foehn effect around Thursday and Friday.

Will do a more detailed update later in the weekend. Quite nice in Ottawa on Friday after a very chilly start near -1 C, reaching 15 C by afternoon. Slowly increasing cloud now at 0100h.

M.T. Cranium · 21-09-2014 9:20am

Sunday, 21 September, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

A brief summary:

TODAY fog will slowly lift this morning, leading to some warm sunshine and highs that could approach 20 C in places.

TONIGHT will see a return to dense fog in many areas, lows 4-7 C.

MONDAY should once again break to warm sunshine, highs near 21 C inland and 18 C coastal areas.

TUESDAY will become cloudy but remain warm, and a band of showery rain will tend to weaken as it moves through, Highs 19-22 C.

WEDNESDAY to WEEKEND will bring quite mild or even warm weather and some places could reach 21-23 C late in the week, but a few showers could develop from time to time.

My local weather (still in eastern Canada) is warm and humid with scattered thunderstorms and highs around 22 C,

May have another brief interruption in my normal routines from Monday to Wednesday, perhaps a guest forecaster will appear and keep you updated.

Larbre34 · 22-09-2014 11:58am

I might have a crack at it today

Monday 22nd September

Ireland

Monday: Fog in the South continuing to clear, sunny spells this afternoon with fair weather across most of Leinster and Connacht as well as North Munster. Cloud building across the north west by evening, with some light rain or drizzle by nightfall. Highs 16-19, warmest inland south. Lows of 6-9 degrees where cloud breaks. Winds light to moderate variable.

Tuesday: Generally cloudy with drizzle or light rain, clearing southeastwards in the afternoon and sunny spells developing most in the northern half of the Country. Highs 15-17, winds light from the SW

Wednesday: Mostly overcast but dry and mild in light winds.

Outlook: Thursday similar to Wednesday and remaining generally very mild and settled out to next week with variable cloud each day and occasional light rain or drizzle in the west and north.

UK Outlook: Mild weather for Britain this week too with occasional light rain, but cool nights and a greater risk of mist and fog. Breezier on North Sea coasts.

North America: Autumn cooling in the North East and Mid West of the US, very warm and humid in the Southern and Gulf Coast states. West of the Rockies temperatures generally above normal and very warm in the South West, with everywhere northwards as far as the Canadian Prairies seeing average temps 6-8 degrees above typical values.

M.T. Cranium · 25-09-2014 7:32am

Thursday, 25 September, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

So, I am back home and hopefully can get back into the habit of posting daily forecasts. Note that we had the new moon earlier Wednesday (0714h) which helps explain why the Jewish holiday, Rosh Hashanah has just passed. This marks the start of the Jewish liturgical year although their civil calendar begins with the March (or early April) new moon.

Situation -- Since we've had such a lengthy interruption in forecast discussion, just a word or two about the situation -- a very warm pattern in the upper atmosphere guarantees above normal temperatures will continue, but how far above normal depends to some extent on how much sunshine gets through low cloud, and then how much of a breeze develops to mix the air further. Today, there's some potential for readings as high as the 21 to 23 C range in parts of the east, if downsloping combines with a bit of mid-day sunshine. Even tomorrow, when the warmest air aloft has moved on to Britain, the stronger breeze could mix down some rather warm air, don't be surprised if temperatures "over-perform" in places. From Saturday on, the pattern gradually becomes more humid with air flowing up from a southerly source. There might be generally more cloud and even light rain associated, but it will stay very mild especially (relative to normal) at night.

Forecasts follow ...

TODAY will see a mixture of sunshine and cloud, the cloud more persistent in the light westerly flow coming in from the Atlantic, and the sun more likely in central to eastern counties. Highs 19 to 23 C warmest near the Wicklow coast south of Dublin, and possibly in some parts of the inland south and southeast. Feeling quite humid too.

TONIGHT ... Rather extensive low cloud or mist and very mild. It likely won't cool down very fast over eastern counties as temperatures linger in the mid-teens past midnight in some places, eventually falling to lows of 8-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, the cloud once again more likely in western to northern counties. Highs 17-21 C warmest again in the east and southeast.

SATURDAY ... Foggy to start, then some sunny breaks, warm, but with coastal fog or drizzle in parts of south and west. Lows 7-9 C and highs 18-20 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, a few outbreaks of light rain possible in west. Lows near 10 C and highs near 18 C.

OUTLOOK ... Much of the following week will be relatively warm but rainfall is likely to pick up and become occasionally moderate if not heavy around mid-week as fronts begin to push into the country from the west. Highs most days will be in the 17-20 C range.

It's a rather similar outlook for Britain although Friday could be even warmer there as the approaching warm wedge aloft moves across southern portions of Britain during the day Friday.

Over in North America, the weather is very pleasant for most regions between the east coast and the Rockies. A slow-moving storm (that I just flew over and then into) is parked over the Rockies and will be producing heavy rain in parts of northern B.C. and central Alberta today, which may begin to mix with snow over the mountains by Friday, but all other regions will stay quite warm through the weekend.

My weather day included dense fog in Ottawa early morning Wednesday, then a view of fog almost coast to coast under high pressure situated near Lake Superior, followed by a rather hair-raising descent through a frontal band of showers over the Cascades into rainy Vancouver. It has since cleared up a bit and the high was 19 C although I slept through that.

M.T. Cranium · 26-09-2014 7:48am

Friday, 26 September, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Gradually clearing skies from northwest to southeast, leading to some very pleasant sunshine and warm daytime highs of 17-20 C, warmest in central counties. Some lingering low cloud or mist in a few coastal locations. Moderate westerly breezes will fall back to light and variable, mostly southerly, breezes by late afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Widespread fog under otherwise clear skies, once temperatures fall to around 7 or 8 C and saturation occurs. Some dense fog in valleys inland may produce near zero visibility towards morning.

SATURDAY ... A foggy start then misty as the sun slowly clears away the fog by about 1030h, leading to some pleasant sunny intervals although patchy mist and low cloud may continue near south coast and into some parts of the southwest. Highs 17-20 C.

SUNDAY ... Another foggy start, but cloud may linger in some parts of the west, with light rain brushing past Mayo and Donegal. Any brighter intervals more likely in the southeast. Lows 7-9 C and highs 16-18 C.

MONDAY ... Foggy to start, then partly cloudy, warm. Lows 6-8 C and highs about 17-19 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, some rain later becoming moderate to heavy by evening in western counties. Lows 7-10 C and highs 17-20 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Showers then clearing, lows 8-12 C and highs 16-18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Very foggy nights and slow clearing to hazy sunshine for several more days, highs mostly into the 17-19 C range, into the first part of October.

See yesterday's forecast for notes on Britain and North America, meanwhile back home for me, where it was cloudy and rather warm with a few showers around, highs near 20 C.

M.T. Cranium · 27-09-2014 7:39am

Saturday, 27 September, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, some sunny intervals in southeast, foggy or misty near some coasts and on hills. Rather warm, highs 17-20 C.

TONIGHT ... Mist and fog becoming widespread, drizzle near south and west coast, lows 7-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, misty and becoming rather warm again, highs 17-20 C.

MONDAY ... Foggy to start, then intervals of cloud and sun, lows 5-8 C and highs 16-19 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, some rain developing near west coast, warm, lows 7-10 C and highs 18-21 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Showers ending, highs near 20 C.

OUTLOOK ... High risk of fog but otherwise dry and mild to warm, with highs reaching 18-20 C range, some signs of cooler weather in about ten days to two weeks but even then, not lasting too long before another mild spell.

My local weather on Friday was showery with highs near 18 C.

M.T. Cranium · 28-09-2014 7:29am

Sunday, 28 September, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy but with some sunny breaks more frequent in the inland south and east, quite warm again, highs 17-20 C. Any light rain or drizzle will be quite brief and amounts 1-2 mm at most.

TONIGHT ... Widespread fog or mist, lows 7-10 C.

MONDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sun, brief showers near west coast, mild to warm, highs 17-20 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy, occasional outbreaks of light rain mostly western half, lows 8-11 C and highs 16-19 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Morning showers or light rain, then clearing, mild. Lows around 12 C and highs around 18 C.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY will continue rather warm but there may be more significant rainfalls as well as an increase in wind speeds as the southerly gradient increases, some gusts to 60 km/hr possible. Highs will continue to reach the high teens or low 20s in places.

Britain has a very similar forecast, while North America is enjoying widespread warmth under a sprawling area of high pressure in the western Great Lakes and central plains regions. There were some more heavy storms in the Phoenix area yesterday, I think they have had more rain in Phoenix this summer than most of the Pacific northwest. Saturday here (Vancouver area) was delightful, sunny and 18 C.

M.T. Cranium · 29-09-2014 7:55am

Monday, 29 September, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Misty or foggy to start, some sunny breaks developing, quite warm and humid with highs reaching 17-20 C.

TONIGHT ... Foggy with some light rain in western counties, mild. Lows 8-12 C.

TUESDAY ... Light rain at times, otherwise mostly cloudy with just a few brief sunny or brighter intervals, highs 16-19 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Overnight and morning showers, then gradual clearing, some fog or mist lingering near hills, lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, fog patches during the morning, lows near 5 C and highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of rain at times, lows near 7 C and highs 13-16 C. Potential for 10-20 mm rainfalls.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Breezy or windy at times, periods of rain with potential for 10-20 mm amounts. Highs near 15 C.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny once some morning fog dissipated, and it was warm with highs near 20 C.

M.T. Cranium · 30-09-2014 6:42am

Tuesday, 30 September, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Intervals of light rain may amount to 5-7 mm in western counties, 2-5 mm further east, before partial clearing brings some warmer sunshine and highs 17-20 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with drizzle or light rain spreading back from west, very mild with lows 10-12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Morning drizzle, fog will slowly clear to hazy sunshine, somewhat cooler with highs 14-17 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy with some decent sunny intervals, morning lows about 2-5 C and highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY ... Periods of rain becoming heavy at times, 10-20 mm rainfalls, lows around 10 C and highs near 15 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy, passing showers, a few with hail or thunder mainly western counties later afternoon, lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy with passing showers, some with hail or thunder, lows near 5 C and highs near 13 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The pattern through much of October looks unsettled and somewhat cooler than average at times, with rainfall likely to reach 150% of normal values, in contrast to September.

The forecast for Britain will be similar in trends but the Friday rainfall in Ireland will not reach most of Britain until Saturday. This will also delay the cooling trend by a day or two.

In North America, cooler air has spread into much of the west behind a weak system bringing rain and a few thunderstorms to the high plains. Further east it remains quite warm except in northern New England and the Great Lakes regions where cooler northeast winds have developed from a high centered over northern Ontario. My local weather on Monday was mostly cloudy with periods of rain, and the high was about 15 C.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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