Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 23-11-2015 8:40am

Monday, 23 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Be alert for dense fog and patchy black ice on roads in the inland southeast this morning, otherwise, temperatures are gradually coming up above freezing in Leinster and are generally 4-7 C elsewhere ... the rest of today will be mostly cloudy with showers developing, steady rain by afternoon west and north, evening or overnight elsewhere, milder in stages and highs 8 to 11 C. Winds rather light in southeast to mid-morning but otherwise becoming brisk westerly then backing southwesterly 50-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Intervals of rain overnight will total about 10 mm with some clearing at times between frontal bands. Winds SW to W 40-70 km/hr. For most, overnight low temperatures quite mild 6-9 C.

TUESDAY will become partly cloudy with scattered showers, and it may become slightly cooler during the morning at least in Ulster and north Leinster as moderate winds turn a bit more to northwest again in the 50-70 km/hr range, gusting to 90 km/hr briefly, highs 5-8 C north to 8-11 C south.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, mild and breezy (WNW backing to WSW 50-70 km/hr). Lows 3-5 C and highs 9-12 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, windy, rain at times although long dry intervals in south. Lows 5-8 C and highs 11-13 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and turning colder about mid-day, morning rain turning to sleet or mixed wintry showers in north, rain or hail showers elsewhere. ... Lows 5-9 C then temperatures near 10 or 11 C mid-day then falling steadily in westerly winds 70-100 km/hr.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Windy, milder again, 7-9 C with some intervals of rain, then temperatures peaking around 11 C on Monday.

My local weather on Sunday was clear to start then became overcast with highs near 5 C. A weak front is approaching with sleety rain but most of the week will revert to the clear and cold conditions of recent days here.

M.T. Cranium · 24-11-2015 8:05am

Tuesday, 24 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... frequent rain (10-15 mm) for Ulster and nearby parts of Connacht, north Leinster, some improvement towards late afternoon, temperatures steady 7-9 C and winds westerly 50-70 km/hr ... other regions further south will become partly cloudy with occasional passing showers (2-5 mm), also in westerly winds 40-60 km/hr, and highs 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers becoming quite brief and isolated, winds west to northwest about 50 km/hr, lows 4-6 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, mild and breezy (WNW backing to WSW 50-70 km/hr) with highs 9-12 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, windy, rain at times although long dry intervals in south. Lows 5-8 C and highs 11-13 C. It may even reach 14 or 15 C in parts of the inland south, very mild for late November, in southwest winds 50-70 km/hr. Rain could become heavy later in the day in the northwest, 15-25 mm potential, but much smaller amounts are likely elsewhere.

FRIDAY ... Windy and turning colder about mid-day, morning rain turning to sleet or mixed wintry showers in north, rain or hail showers elsewhere. ... Lows 5-9 C then temperatures near 11 or 12 C mid-day then falling steadily in westerly winds 70-100 km/hr. Rainfalls generally 5-10 mm, may reach 20 mm in parts of north. Around this time some renewed flooding is possible in Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim and nearby locations.

SATURDAY ... Windy, showers, a bit cooler with highs near 8 C.

SUNDAY to TUESDAY (1st Dec) will be quite a mild spell again with highs reaching the 11-13 C range in moderate southwest winds, rain coming and going mostly across northern regions.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for continued rather mild weather although closer to seasonal averages (7-10 C) for as far as the maps go into December although there are hints of a bit more continental influence by about the 10th with the storm track beginning to run into resistance from European high pressure. This may start off with mild southeasterlies but it's a pattern that could briefly turn colder. However if that happens I don't think it will dig in too long before a milder turn in the holiday period. That's when I believe stormy conditions could develop too, at some point, not to say it would dominate the whole holiday week to two weeks.

Not entirely unrelated, there's a full Moon on Christmas Day this year.

The coming two week weather pattern for BRITAIN will be pretty much the same as for Ireland now that colder air has been flushed out of southern England.

Across NORTH AMERICA the week to come looks rather mild in general (highs on the east coast rising to 15 C through the week), except in the far west and central Canada which will have a modified cold pattern with some snow at times inland, rain just for the rest of tonight on the west coast followed by cold sunshine. My local weather on Monday had the expected sleety rain and a chilly high of 5 C. Expecting to find fresh snow on local hills in the morning and maybe some melting flakes here too but it won't last.

If you read this far, I want to use the "thanks" function to get some specific feedback this week. Each day I will suggest a different reason to press the thanks button, or decline -- it will help me get some feedback on how to proceed this winter. First question, do you find enough regional detail in the forecasts, or would you like more? If you find enough, press thanks, and if not, don't, I will ask those readers to thank the post tomorrow.

(no need to post answers, I am more interested in the overall percentage than any individual feedback on these questions -- and thank you for visiting !!)

M.T. Cranium · 25-11-2015 12:08pm

Sorry this is late, site was down when I usually post. Will postpone any further requests for feedback to next forecast tomorrow.

Wednesday, 25 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Becoming partly cloudy, isolated and mostly light showers, mild and breezy (WNW backing to WSW 50-70 km/hr) with highs 9-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Windy and mild, lows 5-8 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, windy, rain at times although long dry intervals in south with highs 11-14 C in southwest winds 50-70 km/hr. Rain could become heavy late in the day and overnight in the northwest, 15-25 mm potential, but much smaller amounts are likely elsewhere.

FRIDAY ... Windy and turning colder about mid-day, morning rain turning to sleet or mixed wintry showers in north by afternoon and evening, rain or hail showers elsewhere. ... Morning lows 5-9 C then temperatures near 11 or 12 C mid-day but falling steadily through afternoon and evening in westerly winds 70-100 km/hr. Rainfalls generally 5-10 mm, may reach 20 mm in parts of north. Around this time some renewed flooding is possible in Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim and nearby locations.

SATURDAY ... Windy, showers, a bit cooler with highs near 8 C.

SUNDAY to WEDNESDAY (2nd Dec) will be quite a mild spell again with highs reaching the 11-13 C range in moderate southwest winds, rain coming and going mostly across northern regions. Strong southwest winds may develop around 2nd-3rd.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Windy, mild spells continuing, mostly above normal temperatures well into December.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and the high was about 7 deg C.

Full moon occurs today at 10:44 p.m. -- no eclipse.

M.T. Cranium · 26-11-2015 7:33am

Thursday, 26 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few afternoon sunny breaks, breezy, with slight amounts of rain at times in north, mostly, and long dry intervals in south with highs 11-14 C in southwest winds 50-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Rain could become heavy overnight especially towards sunrise in the northwest, with 15-25 mm potential there, but much smaller amounts are likely elsewhere. Very mild and windy (S-SW 50-80 km/hr) with lows 10-12 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and turning colder about mid-day, morning rain, heavy at times (possible thunder) turning showery in south and possibly to sleet or mixed wintry showers in north by afternoon and evening ... morning temperatures near 11 or 12 C mid-day but falling steadily through afternoon and evening in westerly winds 70-100 km/hr. Rainfalls generally 5-10 mm, may reach 20 mm in parts of north. Around this time some renewed flooding is possible in Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim and nearby locations.

SATURDAY ... Windy (WSW 50-80 km/hr), showers starting off rather sleety in north, morning lows 2-4 C and highs near 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Milder with periods of rain becoming heavy in northern then central counties (10-20 mm), highs near 11 C.

MONDAY ... Very mild, rain covering most of the south during the morning then partial clearing, highs 12-13 C but temperatures falling a few degrees in the afternoon and evening with a windshift from southwest to northwest, after which the stronger winds will become light and variable overnight.

TUESDAY ... Becoming very windy again with rain and temperatures peaking around 12 or 13 C.

WEDNESDAY (2nd Dec) will continue mild and windy with intervals of rain but may turn a bit colder late in the day, highs near 11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The mild regime currently appears locked in for a while with the occasional very brief colder spell such as late Friday and early Saturday may produce ... winds will be generally southwest much of the time ... the latest GFS guidance shows a strong wind event at the end of its run on 12 December -- this should be taken as an indication that the gradient may begin to get more stormy through December.

The trend for the next two weeks in BRITAIN will be similar, Friday's colder turn will arrive overnight and will have rather limited effect on southern England.

Today is the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., the weather is likely to be settled in most regions with temperatures a few degrees above normal in the east, a little rain at times in the Midwest, and colder air flooding south into the Rockies and over parts of the far west. Some snow may develop around Denver. My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and cold with a sharp morning frost, low of -4 C and high near 4 C.

Continuing on with the feedback thanks ... today, if you want to communicate that there is not enough regional detail for your interests, please thank this post. I won't be polling for too much regional detail because I don't think the forecasts can have much less on most days.

M.T. Cranium · 27-11-2015 8:36am

Friday, 27 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Becoming windy with rain developing, 10-15 mm in west and north, 5-10 mm for east and south, followed by a sharp temperature drop from mild readings this morning (10-12 C) to colder values (5-8 C for most, 3-5 C on higher ground in north) this afternoon and evening. With the sharp front, southwest winds 50-80 km/hr will veer to westerly then northwesterly at similar speeds, and some mixed wintry showers will develop in parts of the north, especially above 200m.

The front should be quite sharp and well-defined and may develop with two lines of squally showers about half an hour to an hour apart, so watch for that second one too. My timing suggestions would be 10 to 11 a.m. in Galway to about noon to 1 p.m. in Dublin. So the system is moving east at a rapid pace.

TONIGHT ... Continued windy and cold with passing sleety showers, slight accumulations of hail or snow on hills in north. Lows 1-3 C. Winds westerly about 40-70 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Although still rather cold, temperatures will moderate enough that most of the passing showers will be rain or hail, but snow is possible on higher summits, and winds will be very strong at times (westerly 60-100 km/hr at lower elevations, stronger on hills). Highs 5-8 C.

SUNDAY ... Milder with occasional light rain (2-5 mm) except moderate falls in parts of the northwest where 20 mm possible, moderate southwest winds, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

MONDAY ... Very mild, pulses of heavy rain (15-30 mm with heaviest amounts in Donegal and Mayo) and moderate southwest winds veering more to westerly, lows near 10 C and highs near 13 C.

TUESDAY (1 Dec) ... Continued very mild and becoming windy late in the day with rain, highs near 13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat colder mid-week, leading to a mild and windy weekend and strong winds possible beyond that according to leading European model, while GFS develops nearby high pressure and a slightly frosty pattern. I am more confident of the continued Atlantic scenario in part because I expect a peak of strong westerly flow around mid-December. However, there could be one or two days later next week where a faint anticyclonic influence brings some dry and cool days.

Over in BRITAIN the weather will also continue very mild and tonight's colder turn will only be fully felt in northern England and Scotland, while temperatures for Saturday will be about the same as forecast above. Then the very mild air will return and cover at least the southern parts of Scotland and all of England and Wales. I would not be surprised to see 14 or 15 C in some places by Monday and Tuesday.

In NORTH AMERICA the pattern remains rather bland, mild in the east and a bit colder than average in the west. Thursday here was pleasant enough by afternoon with a sunny high of 8 C, after morning frost.

One more feedback question, thanks for participating, I will study the regional detail question which seems to concern at least a few readers (assuming people are playing along) ... today's question is about the add-on forecasts for Britain and North America. Thank today's post if you like seeing them.

M.T. Cranium · 28-11-2015 7:58am

Saturday, 28 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy especially near Atlantic coasts, passing showers or periods of rain (5-10 mm), winds WSW 60-90 km/hr with higher gusts in coastal areas. Temperatures will moderate enough that most of the passing showers will be rain or hail, but snow is possible on higher summits, with highs 5-8 C.

TONIGHT ... Blustery and turning milder with temperatures steady or rising slowly to about 8-10 C by sunrise. Scattered outbreaks of light rain but heavier in counties near Donegal Bay.

SUNDAY ... Milder with occasional light rain (2-5 mm) except moderate falls in parts of the northwest where 20 mm possible, moderate southwest winds, highs 10-12 C.

MONDAY ... Very mild, pulses of heavy rain (15-30 mm with heaviest amounts in Donegal and Mayo) and moderate southwest winds veering more to westerly at 50-80 km/hr except for light to moderate southeast winds in Ulster, lows near 10 C and highs near 13 C for the south, but with brief clearing in the early morning, some parts of Ulster and north Leinster may start out colder (2-5 C) with the milder air either held off to the south or arriving later in the evening.

TUESDAY (1 Dec) ... Continued very mild and becoming windy (S-SW 70-110 km/hr) during the afternoon and evening, about 15-25 mm rain, highs 11 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Mild at first, showers of rain or hail, turning colder during the afternoon or evening, temperatures steady 8-10 C then falling to 2-5 C, snow may fall briefly on northern hills.

THURSDAY ... Clearing with moderate southwest winds, highs near 9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Milder again by the weekend in a southwest flow.

My local weather on Friday was sunny after a sharp morning frost, low of -5 C and high of about 7 C. We are in this sort of pattern for the weekend with a slow increase in cloud early next week and rain mid-week as the weather over most of North America is dominated by sprawling high pressure covering most of the U.S. and a mild westerly flow in most of Canada. The "El Nino" look is increasing which probably means there will be a strong to severe windstorm event from the Atlantic to Ireland and Britain at some point in mid to late December.

M.T. Cranium · 29-11-2015 8:20am

Sunday, 29 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for strong westerly winds 80-110 km/hr for most areas, peak gusts to 130 km/hr near Atlantic coasts and on higher hills. ADVANCE ALERT for long-term (to Wed 2nd) heavy rainfall in parts of the west, 75-150 mm could fall over this period keeping river and stream levels high to minor flood stage at least. Rainfall in other regions will generally be more moderate (25-50 mm totals over four days).

TODAY ... Strong winds for most of this morning will peak around 0900h to 1100h across central counties and exposed parts of the northwest coasts, "level one" conditions for many and "level two" for a few places well exposed to the Atlantic such as Clare, south Galway and possibly near Donegal Bay. Gusts to 110 km/hr (westerly) for most, 130 km/hr in the more exposed areas, minor tree damage is possible there. A few squally showers with hail possible, rainfalls generally 5-10 mm and turning slightly colder in the afternoon and evening after mid-day highs near 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Brief clearing in Ulster and north Leinster could bring a touch of frost around midnight before cloud spreads back in, but it will stay rather mild further south, so expect lows -1 to +3 C in the northeast, 3 to 6 across west Ulster, east Connacht and central Leinster, and 6 to 9 C in south Leinster, Munster and south to west Connacht. Rain will redevelop in west Munster after midnight.

MONDAY ... Very mild for much of the day in the south with southwest winds that may become quite gusty on Cork and Waterford coasts (60-100 km/hr) but more moderate inland, highs near 13 C ... further north, rain will become heavy for a few hours and 15-25 mm may fall from about Limerick to Meath, as well as in parts of Connacht and inland Leinster. In that zone the highs will reach about 10-12 C at mid-day with a slight drop later. In northern counties from north Connacht to all of Ulster, rain could be sleety on hills but much lighter near the north coasts, and temperatures will only rise to about 5 or 6 C due to east winds followed by a northerly breeze as low pressure tracks across Ireland.

TUESDAY ... Early morning heavy rainfall will resume, with strong south to southwest winds 90-120 km/hr (probably another borderline level one/level two sort of event) stronger on the west coast, and quite mild all day with temperatures steady 10-13 C. About 25-50 mm rain could fall in parts of the west, 5-15 mm east.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain or showers, turning colder through the day, temperatures starting out near 10 C falling to 3-5 C by afternoon and evening, rain could turn to sleet or snow on hills.

THURSDAY ... Morning rain may linger in south (sleet or snow on some southern hills) with gradual clearing across north. Lows 1-3 C and highs 6-9 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY (and possibly several more days) will be very mild again with a south to southwest flow, occasional rain, and highs 9-12 C.

Today's very strong winds will affect some parts of northern England and Wales, and it will be quite windy further south too. Monday could be as mild as 14 or 15 C in southern England, the daily record could fall there. But in general, the pattern for the next two weeks will be quite similar to what's posted for Ireland, generally mild with a few moderately cold days mid-week.

North America continues to see rather quiet weather, with rain slowly spreading inland from the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. This could lead to an ice storm in some parts of the central plains states when it starts to fall into sub-freezing surface conditions. A cool but dry pattern continues over the far west. My local weather on Saturday was sunny with a lingering frost in the shade, morning low -5 and afternoon high about 4 C.

M.T. Cranium · 30-11-2015 8:47am

Monday, 30 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for heavy rainfalls and flooding risks in western counties mainly from north Kerry to south Galway today, tomorrow and early Wednesday, 50-75 mm may fall in total over the period. Also, ALERT for strong winds late Tuesday, south to southwest 80-120 km/hr, in Atlantic coastal counties, and some parts of south coast.

TODAY ... Very mild for much of the day in the south with southwest winds that may become quite gusty on Cork and Waterford coasts (60-100 km/hr) but more moderate inland, highs 12 or 13 C ... further north, rain will become heavy for a few hours and 15-25 mm may fall; in that zone the highs will reach about 10-12 C at mid-day with a slight drop later. In northern counties from north Connacht to all of Ulster, rain could be sleety on hills but much lighter near the north coasts, and temperatures will only rise to about 5 or 6 C due to east winds followed by a northerly breeze then turning more southeast by late in the day after low pressure tracks across Ireland by mid-day.

TONIGHT ... Foggy in many areas with rainfall becoming heavy again near Atlantic coasts, a further 15-25 mm likely, 5-15 mm south and east. Lows 8-10 C in south and west, temperatures rising to those levels elsewhere.

TUESDAY ... Early morning heavy rainfall will resume, and will then move away to the north followed by partly cloudy skies, with strong south to southwest winds 80-120 km/hr by late afternoon and evening on the west coast, and quite mild all day with temperatures steady and very mild at 10-13 C. About 15-30 mm rain could fall in parts of the west, 5-15 mm east.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain or showers, turning colder through the day, temperatures starting out near 10 C falling to 3-5 C by afternoon and evening, rain could turn to sleet or snow on hills late evening and overnight into Thursday morning. Strong southerly winds early will moderate during the mid-day hours.

THURSDAY ... Morning rain may linger in south (sleet or snow on some southern hills) with gradual clearing across north. Lows 1-3 C and highs 6-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Very windy and mild, potential for gusts over 110 km/hr in south to southwest winds, highs near 12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Briefly colder around Saturday (7-9 C) but back to very mild southwest winds, highs 11-12 C, for several days towards the mid-month period. There are some indications of a colder turn after the 13th but too early to place much confidence in that yet.

The main difference for Britain will be that most of southern England will stay mild to mid-day Thursday, but otherwise a similar picture to the above. Today's thermal divide will show up across central Britain too, and snow could fall on northern hills while southern England warms to 13-14 C.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and cold with a sharp frost and highs reaching 6 C.

M.T. Cranium · 01-12-2015 8:52am

Tuesday, 1st of December

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Very mild and breezy, just a few light showers at most, and a few brighter intervals in the mix, winds southerly 50-80 km/hr with a slight increase towards late afternoon in Atlantic coastal counties. Highs 12-14 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain at times, windy, mild. Winds 70-110 km/hr from southwest, about 5-10 mm rain, lows near 8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy with longer sunny intervals in parts of west-central counties, showers more likely in northwest, but some lingering rain near southeast coasts. Cooler with moderate westerly winds, highs 6-9 C.

THURSDAY ... Generally bright and dry, with scattered morning frost away from the south coast. A slight risk of sleet in the morning across southeast coasts and on nearby hills but this system appears set to pass by far enough south that it will only spread cloud across the southeast. Morning lows will be in the range -1 to +3 C (5-7 C some coastal areas south and west), highs will reach about 7 or 8 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and milder with rain developing (10-15 mm possible), south to southwest winds 70-110 km/hr by late in the day, lows 3-5 C and highs about 11-12 C. Heavy rain and squally showers overnight into Saturday morning.

SATURDAY ... Early morning heavy showers clearing east, blustery with temperatures steady 8-10 C in westerly winds 70-110 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Periods of rain, windy, temperatures steady 9 to 11 C.

MONDAY ... Breezy and colder with passing showers, some wintry on higher ground in north and west, lows 2-4 C and highs 5-8 C.

TUESDAY ... A few more showers, blustery but with a clearing trend and becoming slightly milder again, lows near 1 C and highs near 9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Another interval of very mild and wet weather will follow for Wednesday 9th and Thursday 10th, highs near 12 C, then colder in stages and becoming quite unsettled through the weekend of 12th-13th. With decreasing confidence, the scenario becomes even colder in the mid-month period.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and cold with a lingering frost, highs near 5 C. Cloudy now so perhaps a bit milder overnight.

M.T. Cranium · 02-12-2015 8:46am

Wednesday, 2 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT for very strong southwest winds on Friday with gusts reaching at least 130 km/hr in exposed parts of western counties, 120 km/hr later in east and south.

TODAY ... Intervals of rain will continue across parts of the south and east but will gradually taper off to drizzle with a slow clearing trend spreading in from the northwest around mid-day. The strong southwest winds this morning will continue to moderate and will be only 30-50 km/hr by late afternoon. Highs will be close to current temperatures for most, 8-10 C in the northwest, to 11 or 12 C south and east. About 5-10 mm further rainfall is likely for most of Leinster and east Munster.

TONIGHT ... Cloud will linger across the east and south, with occasional drizzle after midnight, turning to rain on the south coast around sunrise. Lows in this part of the country will be 4-7 C. Further west and north, partial clearing will allow temperatures to drop to 1-3 C with isolated ground frost in parts of Connacht.

THURSDAY ... Latest guidance shows an area of rain likely to spread across the south and into east coast counties, but it should remain dry from about north Kerry to Connacht and in parts of central Ireland as well as most of Ulster. Where the rain spreads in, expect 5-10 mm and temperatures near 7 or 8 C in moderate east to northeast winds. In dry areas, with veiled sunshine through higher cloud layers, highs will perhaps reach 9 C and winds will be light and variable.

FRIDAY ... Temperatures will start to recover during the early morning hours with a developing southwesterly flow, so that lows will be 3-5 C but sunrise temperatures could be 8-10 C in the west. The day will become increasingly windy and there may be gale or storm force gusts on the west coast by afternoon, in southwest winds 80-130 km/hr. Occasional rain will develop but falls will be rather moderate this time, 5-10 mm.

FRIDAY NIGHT into SATURDAY ... Continued very windy but the strongest winds will shift south and east across the rest of the country while moderating on the Atlantic coasts especially north of the Shannon estuary. It will continue windy and mild with occasional rain for the south and east, winds southwest at 80-110 km/hr, temperatures steady 10-12 C. Further north, variable skies and occasional showers with less windy conditions expected, temperatures steady in the 7-9 C range.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will continue breezy to windy and mild with further outbreaks of light rain, temperatures well above normal at 9-12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK is somewhat uncertain with conflicting guidance, some suggesting further mild and windy conditions, while other maps depict slightly colder conditions (near average highs of 7-9 C) and somewhat more settled for part of the week. There are then indications of very windy weather returning around mid-month followed by a modified blast of colder air from a source region in Greenland but with considerable ocean modification, this would not be overly wintry with highs 5-7 C (this seems to be the tabloid cold wave of modern times). At this point I don't foresee anything disruptive from cold or snow but the wind potential at some point between 12th and 16th is more of concern.

The above scenario will play out in most parts of Britain but the present mild spell will continue unbroken in southern England to late Thursday as the low expected to cross Ireland then will hold back the fronts around north Wales to Yorkshire.

North America continues to see widespread rather mild weather conditions with some rain on both coasts now, which has finally broken down the long spell of dry, frosty weather here, Tuesday became wet and drizzly with a high near 7 C at my location.

M.T. Cranium · 03-12-2015 9:08am

Thursday, 3 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERTS for locally heavy rainfalls in parts of the inland southeast, 20-30 mm with spot flooding, also risk of wet snow in elevations above 200m in south central and inland southeast counties this afternoon, 5-10 cms could fall on higher elevations ... then strong south to southwest winds will develop in western counties tomorrow afternoon and evening, 80-120 km/hr, strongest gusts on Atlantic coasts, but this may spread further east to include parts of the south coast and east coast by early Saturday ... locally heavy rainfalls Friday to Sunday mainly on hills in western counties where 50-75 mm could fall leading to highly localized flooding.

TODAY ... Feeling cold due to raw northeast winds 30-50 km/hr combined with a cold rain (20-30 mm for inland south and southeast) in counties south of a Kerry to Meath line, although isolated light showers are possible further north, where some brighter intervals are also possible at times, and with somewhat lighter winds it may not feel as cold in parts of north Connacht and Ulster. Highs generally 7-9 C but temperatures will begin to edge downward in areas getting heavier rain and then that rain could turn to wet snow on hills especially in counties from Tipperary east to Wicklow. Accumulations are only likely to develop above 300m but snow could mix with the rain at lower elevations while not sticking. This inclement weather will push out to the east in the late afternoon leaving a cold overcast early evening in moderate northerly winds except for westerlies in Donegal.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals, scattered outbreaks of light rain across parts of the far north but otherwise dry, temperatures steady 3-5 C at first then rising slowly towards morning.

FRIDAY ... Overcast, becoming rather windy in most regions but very windy near Atlantic coasts by afternoon, mostly dry until a band of rain sweeps in during the late afternoon or early evening in Connacht and west Munster. The southerly gales may reach storm force both at sea and on exposed western coasts, 80-120 km/hr with some spells near 130 km/hr over the Atlantic. Highs 10-12 C.

FRIDAY NIGHT into SATURDAY will remain very windy in most areas, but severe gusts are most likely near southwest coasts and over the Irish Sea, where they might reach 120 km/hr, for most inland areas 60-100 km/hr will be the typical range, and it will remain very mild at 11-13 C. Some rain at times for most places, isolated heavy rain on western hills (20-40 mm locally but 5-15 mm more widespread). Localized flooding may develop from swollen streams that drain higher ground in areas such as Kerry, northwest Limerick, Clare and Connemara.

SUNDAY will be mild and still quite windy although less stormy, with further outbreaks of rain mostly confined to west coastal areas. Highs near 12 C in the south, 8-10 C north.

OUTLOOK ... Much of the following week will be mild and occasionally windy with rainfall becoming heavy at times on Monday and again towards Thursday, highs generally 10-12 C. It will then turn colder in stages around Friday and Saturday (11th-12th) with the chance of mixed wintry showers developing in strong northwest winds, but this will quickly fade to milder weather again as a southwest flow resumes.

Today will be very mild in most of BRITAIN except for Scotland and the northwestern parts of Wales, as well as Cumbria, which will all eventually see a similar evolution of rain to wet snow, while the south remains in a mild southerly flow near 13 or 14 C. It will finally turn colder there tonight but only briefly, the Friday windstorm will hit Scotland but will wait until Saturday to reach most other parts of Britain.

Across the eastern U.S. it will be showery and mild, while somewhat colder air seeps into the Great Lakes and Midwest regions after a wet snowfall of 5-10 cms in some areas. The west is warming up in southwest winds. My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with light rain at times, and a high of 8 C.

M.T. Cranium · 04-12-2015 8:59am

Friday, 4 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERTS for strong winds and heavy rainfalls with most severe conditions in west coastal counties, peak gusts around 130 km/hr and some rainfalls reaching 75-150 mm on hills, with risk of severe flooding, near higher terrain (valid from 3 p.m. Friday to 6 a.m. Sunday)

TODAY ... Turning more cloudy in rising southwest winds, then becoming rather windy in most regions but very windy near Atlantic coasts by afternoon, mostly dry until a band of rain sweeps in during the late afternoon or early evening in Connacht and west Munster. The southerly gales may reach storm force both at sea and on exposed western coasts, 80-130 km/hr with some spells near 140 km/hr over the near Atlantic marine areas. Highs 10-12 C.

TONIGHT into SATURDAY will remain very windy in most areas, but severe gusts are most likely near southwest coasts and over the Irish Sea, where they might reach 120 km/hr, for most inland areas 60-100 km/hr will be the typical range, and it will remain very mild at 11-13 C. Some rain at times for most places, isolated heavy rain on western hills (20-40 mm locally but 5-15 mm more widespread). Localized flooding is very likely to develop from swollen streams that drain higher ground in areas such as Kerry, northwest Limerick, Clare and Connemara into western Mayo, also central Donegal.

SATURDAY NIGHT this rain will tend to become heavier in central and eastern regions for a time while slowly easing in the west, but winds will continue rather strong for all regions (SW 70-110 km/hr), with temperatures holding near 10 C until falling off late in the overnight period over western counties to around 6 C.

SUNDAY will see partial clearing with diminishing westerly winds becoming slack for a time then southeasterly by afternoon into the evening, with temperatures steady in the range of 7-9 C.

SUNDAY NIGHT into MONDAY will become windy again (SSE 70-110 km/hr) with periods of rain, 25-50 mm likely, renewed flood risks in western counties and temperatures steady in the 10-12 C range.

TUESDAY will continue very blustery with rain tapering off to showers in southwesterly winds 70-110 km/hr, highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY may see a brief dry interval with slightly cooler temperatures then THURSDAY and FRIDAY will become stormy again with heavy rain potential and strong winds. Highs will reach 10 or 11 C each day.

FURTHER OUTLOOK is quite uncertain given the spread in the guidance and signals for colder and very unsettled conditions, I would lean towards a continuation of the stormy trends with perhaps a larger range in temperatures from day to day. This is where we are facing quite a potential battle between mild air driven in from the southwest by a strong jet stream and the colder air finding easy passage south across the colder than normal central Atlantic. The results of this clash are bound to produce stormy conditions at times.

The above scenario would tend to apply to Scotland, northwest England and parts of Wales especially with the strong winds and heavy rainfalls, whereas southern and central England may be somewhat less stormy and even milder at times (13-15 C), through the period.

My local weather on Thursday turned very mild after some heavy bursts of rainfall and the high reached 14 C, then it became rather windy with peak gusts of about 80 km/hr, just some minor tree damage as a result with scattered power outages.

M.T. Cranium · 05-12-2015 8:51am

Saturday, 5 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERTS continued for widespread heavy rainfalls, a further 30-40 mm today and tonight will create high flood risks in western and some central counties. Strong southwest winds will continue south of a Galway to Meath line with some increase in speeds for the southeast coastal counties, ongoing gusts to 120 km/hr in west coast counties, 100 km/hr elsewhere in the central and eastern counties, but less windy today in parts of the north.

TODAY will remain very windy in most areas, but severe gusts are most likely near southwest coasts (120 km/hr) and over the south coast and the Irish Sea (110 km/hr), for most inland areas 60-100 km/hr will be the typical range, and it will remain very mild at 11-13 C. Rain continuing most of the time, with isolated heavy rainfall on western hills (30-50 mm locally but 15-25 mm more widespread). Localized flooding is very likely to develop from swollen streams that drain higher ground in areas such as Kerry, northwest Limerick, Clare and Connemara into western Mayo, also central Donegal. Lowland flooding is most likely in nearby counties but may extend into central counties and also near hills in the south, southeast and central regions.

TONIGHT this rain will tend to become heavier in central and eastern regions for a time while slowly easing in the west, but winds will continue rather strong for all regions (SW 70-110 km/hr), with temperatures holding near 10 C until falling off late in the overnight period over western counties to around 4 to 6 C. Winds shifting to northwest then easing slowly as the rain ends. Severe flood potential becoming more widespread and continuing after the rain ends, probably an increase in road closures and more hazardous driving due to darkness making flood or debris hazards ahead more difficult to spot.

SUNDAY will see partial clearing with diminishing westerly winds becoming slack for a time then southeasterly by afternoon into the evening, with temperatures steady in the range of 7-9 C except 5-7 C inland north. Despite the lack of additional rain, flooding may be ongoing and severe in places with prolonged road closures possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT into MONDAY will become windy again (SSE 70-110 km/hr) with periods of rain, 25-50 mm likely, renewed flood risks in western counties and temperatures steady in the 10-12 C range.

TUESDAY will continue very blustery with rain tapering off to showers in southwesterly winds 70-110 km/hr, highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY may see a brief dry interval with slightly cooler temperatures near 8 C, then THURSDAY and early FRIDAY will become stormy again with heavy rain potential and strong winds. Highs will reach 10 or 11 C each day.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There may be a somewhat colder interval around the weekend of 12th -13th and for a day or two beyond that, with some dry spells although a risk of cold rain and hill sleet if low pressure to the south comes into play. After this interval, a mild and unsettled southwesterly flow will likely
resume.

The very wet and windy conditions are spreading into most parts of Britain now, but the far south remains somewhat less windy and will be dry for part of the day. Flooding may develop in parts of north Wales, central northern England and southwest Scotland.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with a few intervals of light rain and the high was about 9 C. We're expecting wind and heavy rainfall too.

M.T. Cranium · 06-12-2015 8:17am

Sunday, 6 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for renewed strong winds and heavy rainfalls valid 9 p.m. Sunday to 6 a.m. Tuesday, peak gusts to 110 km/hr in west, 90 km/hr east. About 20-30 mm rain in west, 10-20 mm east, will maintain or even renew some flooding in western and central counties if it manages to ease during today's dry interval.

TODAY ... A welcome break from the wind and rain for at least half a day ... fairly soon any rain or gusty winds will end in eastern counties and all regions will have some brighter intervals in moderate westerly winds that will go rather slack at mid-day then turn quickly to the southeast, although still not very strong for the afternoon. Highs 7-10 C in most areas, 5-7 C inland north.

TONIGHT into MONDAY ... Strong southerly winds will quickly develop with rain spreading across western counties, peak gusts will be in south Kerry and west Cork (possibly reaching 120 km/hr there), and more generally 110 km/hr in western counties, 90 km/hr east. The rain will clear for a time then redevelop and spread further east during Monday. Amounts will be 20-30 mm west, 10-20 mm east. Some flooding could redevelop in west, assuming that there is any improvement later today, or if not, this will just hold flood levels in place for some further time. Temperatures will be steady 9-11 C overnight and 11-13 C Monday.

TUESDAY ... Becoming more showery, winds continued very strong and veering to southwest 80-120 km/hr, some severe gusts possible. Temperatures steady 8-10 C will fall off slightly late in the day. About 5-10 mm further rainfall will not be enough to maintain high flood levels so despite that rain things may improve slowly.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and mild, winds WSW 70-110 km/hr in exposed locations, severe gusts possible at times, a few showers but dry intervals in east. Lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy or very windy and turning a bit colder with showers, winds westerly 60-100 km/hr, morning lows near 4 C and afternoon highs about 8 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and colder, some passing showers may become wintry, highs 5-7 C.

SATURDAY ... A frosty start, some sunshine possible, but outlook rather uncertain with guidance becoming very scattered around this time, some risk of sleet or a cold rain developing if low pressure pushes in close enough from south. Morning lows -1 to +3 C and highs 5-7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some guidance suggests a colder interval, but there seems at least the same possibility if not greater that the weather will gradually turn rather mild again in strong southerly winds and rain. I should underline the fact that the guidance has been all over the place for this mid-month period and may not settle in on the right solution for a day or two yet.

Early thoughts about the Christmas holiday period -- I have the feeling that it will become very windy again with at least some rainfall, let's hope it isn't too severe but with the large-scale set-up being the way it is, more severe storms are quite likely. Prolonged cold may come eventually but I think there will be several false starts (and no doubt millions of newspapers sold) before the real deal which I am expecting to be later January or early February.

In BRITAIN, the windy and showery weather will continue much of the morning before the clearing trend reaches them. Severe flooding will affect road travel in parts of northern England and southwest Scotland.

By contrast, the weather is quite bland across much of North America at the present time, although it was quite windy and wet in my location on the west coast on Saturday, around 50 mm of rain and strong wind gusts, sound familiar? High of about 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 07-12-2015 8:17am

Monday, 7 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rather windy for most regions, very windy for southwest coasts this morning with peak gusts about 115 km/hr (elsewhere, 50-80 km/hr). Very mild with some brief sunny intervals, highs 12-14 C, then rain will sweep in from the west around mid-day with 10-20 mm expected. This will have the effect of slowing down any ongoing improvements from recent flooding.

TONIGHT ... Further rain or showers, 5-10 mm, strong southwest winds in most places, 50-80 km/hr. Lows near 7 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy (severe gusts possible in Mayo, 120 km/hr there, otherwise about 50-90 km/hr). Turning a bit colder as temperatures drop slowly from early highs near 10 C to afternoon readings of 5-7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and milder again with rain at times, strong southwest winds 70-110 km/hr, morning lows 5-7 C and highs 10-12 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy, turning gradually colder with showers becoming sleety or mixed rain and snow on hills in north. Some heavy bursts of rain in the south towards end of the day. Temperatures falling to 3-5 C range by afternoon in north, 5-8 C south. Winds WSW 60-100 km/hr adding chill so that it will feel close to freezing.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, a few showers, possibly mixed and wintry on hills, cold. Lows -1 to +3 C and highs 5-8 C.

SATURDAY to MONDAY now appears likely to turn milder again, the cold may hold on in the northeast for early Saturday but most other places will quickly warm up to the 10-12 C range with occasional rain.

FURTHER OUTLOOK is quite uncertain given the spread in model guidance, some suggestions of rain at times in southeast winds that may become strong for part of the mid-week (15th-16th) period. Eventually it will probably become quite stormy as the flow is forced back into a fast westerly mode.

My local weather on Sunday was cloudy with spits of light rain, rather mild at about 11 C, and strong south winds have developed this evening.

M.T. Cranium · 08-12-2015 8:27am

Tuesday, 8 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy and turning slightly colder this afternoon with frequent showers in west (5-15 mm), occasional showers for east (2-5 mm). Winds south veering southwest 60-90 km/hr, risk of more severe gusts in parts of northwest. Highs 9-11 C will occur relatively early, as temperatures fall off to about 7 C this afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Breezy and rather cold but temperatures recovering after midnight in southwest winds 50-80 km/hr, lows 3-5 C but closer to 10 C by morning.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and mild with occasional rain (10-20 mm), but also some dry intervals, in southwest winds 70-110 km/hr. Highs 9-12 C. Steady rain by evening lasting through part of the night into Thursday morning.

THURSDAY ... Windy and turning colder in stages, early rain then scattered showers which may become rather wintry over higher parts of the north, winds southwest to west 70-110 km/hr, morning lows 5-7 C and highs 7-9 C but temperatures falling off to 3-5 C by afternoon.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, cold. Some frost possible inland, lows -1 to +3 C, highs 6-9 C.

SATURDAY ... Periods of rain, milder again, temperatures rising to about 11 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy, partly cloudy with a few showers, highs near 9 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Mostly milder than average again next week, highs mainly in the 10-12 C range, occasional rain. We are seeing charts extending almost to Christmas Day now, and little change in this pattern all the way, with some signs of a stormier period developing around the holiday week.

This will be fairly similar to the weather pattern across most of Britain too.

Over most of North America, the coming week looks very mild, highs will be as much as 10 degrees above normal in some areas, reaching 15-20 C on the east coast. The El Nino pattern is really "raging" at this point with strong fronts hitting the west coast in rapid succession. Our local weather on Monday was overcast with a bit of light rain (heavier to our south), highs near 10 C. We are expecting heavier rain and strong winds most of this week.

M.T. Cranium · 09-12-2015 8:56am

Wednesday, 9 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy and mild with a few more showers, although only about 5-10 mm further accumulations after the overnight 10-15 mm already recorded in some parts of Connacht and Ulster (watch for slight renewed flooding in these areas), longer dry intervals for south and east, in southwest winds 70-110 km/hr. There could be a few gusts to 120 km/hr on parts of the Mayo coast until mid-day. Highs 10-13 C. Heavier showers by late afternoon west, evening further east, will bring most of the expected 5-10 mm.

TONIGHT ... Showers, windy but some moderation with a clearing trend, colder with lows 2-5 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy and turning colder in stages, early rain then scattered showers which may become rather wintry over higher parts of the north, winds southwest to west 70-110 km/hr, and highs 7-9 C but temperatures falling off to 3-5 C by afternoon.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, cold. Some frost possible inland, lows -1 to +3 C, highs 6-9 C.

SATURDAY ... Periods of rain may become heavy at times with 20-40 mm potential, turning milder again, morning lows 3-6 C, morning likely to become foggy with moderate southwest winds developing, possibly becoming strong along the south coast, and highs of 10-13 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy, partly cloudy with rain at times and lows of 4-6 C, highs near 9 C.

OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK ... Generally mild in southerly winds, occasional rain, highs 9-12 C.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast, foggy and quite dark all day long with occasional rain, highs near 12 C.

M.T. Cranium · 09-12-2015 8:02pm

Wednesday, 9 December, 2015 _ 7 p.m.

ALERT for ACTIVE SQUALL LINE CONDITIONS GREATER DUBLIN 7:30 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.

ADVANCE ALERT for WEEKEND HEAVY RAIN (Munster, south Connacht, south Leinster)

For the greater Dublin region, be alert for strong wind gusts, briefly torrential rainfall and possible hail and thunder, as a squall line approaches next few minutes to half hour and moves through the region including some parts of Wicklow and Kildare, south to east Meath and all of Dublin. Road travel may become briefly hazardous especially for cyclists and high-sided vehicles.

Along with the regulars on the weather forum, I am closely watching developments as slow-moving low pressure to the southwest appears likely to force a nearly stationary band of moderate to heavy rainfall to linger for at least three days (Saturday to Monday) over Munster, Galway and south Leinster. Some guidance shows 100-150 mm rainfall potential in this period which would no doubt worsen the flood risk in already badly affected areas. At least 50-75 mm rainfall by Monday seems a safe bet in these outlined regions but it could be more.

Some guidance shows the heavier rain moving further north for a time but at this point, I am not as fully concerned for heavy rain potential for north Connacht and central Leinster, yet at least. An early estimate for those regions would be 15-30 mm but trending towards 30-50 mm near Dublin. Ulster may remain largely outside the rainfall zone unless there is a significant northward shift.

I hope we might have some better news by the morning forecast update, but I am not optimistic seeing how much agreement there is for this potential. As the new moon occurs later this week, tides will be running high and although strong winds seem unlikely, the high tides will interact with estuary outflow to slow down the ability of rivers such as the Shannon or rivers reaching the south coast to discharge high volumes of water.

Next update from me will be the morning forecast at around 0715h. -- MTC

M.T. Cranium · 10-12-2015 8:37am

Thursday, 10 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT for heavy rainfalls in western counties this weekend and on Monday ... guidance has shifted further north, reducing the risk for the south but increasing it for Mayo and possibly Donegal. Total rainfalls of 50-100 mm appear likely over the period from north Kerry to Mayo and the heavier amounts in north Clare, west Galway and Mayo. ... Another advance alert may be required for heavy snow before mid-day Saturday in higher parts of Connacht and west Ulster.

TODAY ... Moderate westerly winds (50-80 km/hr), quite cold with passing showers becoming wintry on hills in Connacht and Ulster. Highs 5-8 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers increasingly isolated but more wintry, some clear intervals central, eastern and southern counties with patchy frost developing, lows -1 to +3 C.

FRIDAY ... Bright and cold with a few passing wintry showers possible mainly over higher parts of northwest, less windy than recent days, highs 4-7 C.

SATURDAY ... A cold start for much of the country away from the south and west coasts, sleet or snow possible especially over higher portions of Connacht and Ulster, as rain moves steadily north in western counties. Eventually the precipitation will change over to rain in all higher locations, temperatures will edge upwards from 1-4 C to 7-10 C in the north, and from 5-7 C to 11-13 C in the south. Winds easterly becoming southerly, 50-70 km/hr. Rainfalls of about 20-30 mm likely in western counties, 5-15 mm elsewhere (3-7 cms snow in early stages for some higher areas).

SATURDAY NIGHT into SUNDAY will continue mild, foggy at times, with further rainfalls of 20-40 mm in western counties, leading to some renewed flooding, and 5-15 mm further east, although some longer dry intervals possible in southeast. Very mild with highs 11-14 C in southerly winds increasing later in the day to 50-80 km/hr.

MONDAY will continue windy and very mild with occasional rain, 10-20 mm possible, highs near 13 C and winds southerly 70-110 km/hr.

FURTHER OUTLOOK becomes rather uncertain with guidance beginning to split into two different evolutions. One that seems more likely is for continued very mild weather in mainly southerly winds, occasional further rainfalls and highs generally above 10 C. The other scenario is colder although not generally below normal, and with longer dry intervals. This makes the pre-Christmas period even more uncertain but I think it will probably be rather stormy and mild around the holiday period.

This pattern will be more similar for the northern half of Britain in coming days, as the south will be generally mild but relatively dry with most of the rain passing through Ireland headed for northern England and western Scotland.

The eastern and central U.S. and parts of eastern Canada will be very mild for several more days and temperatures could reach 22-24 C this coming weekend as far north as the mid-Atlantic states, 17-19 C into southern New England, 12-15 C in the lower Great Lakes. These may set some daily records although monthly records tend to be a few degrees higher. The west will become very stormy as a strong low approaches Vancouver Island, circles around and comes inland further south. My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy and mild with a high of 12 C. Rain and strong winds are expected later today and into part of Friday.

M.T. Cranium · 11-12-2015 7:51am

Friday, 11 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for heavy rainfall in Munster and Galway, spreading at times into parts of the midlands and south Leinster, from Saturday to Monday in several intervals with total rainfalls 40-70 mm possible. Also, ALERT for locally heavy snowfall ahead of the rain in higher parts of Connacht, south Ulster and inland central Leinster on Saturday morning with 3-5 cm potential in a few locations, sleet more widespread, all turning to rain later.

TODAY ... Bright and cold with a few passing wintry showers possible mainly over higher parts of northwest, less windy than recent days but still a west to northwest breeze 30-50 km/hr, highs 4-7 C north, 6-9 C south. (Astronomy note, new moon is at 10:29 a.m. today).

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals in parts of north and east will produce some brief frost but clouds will increase, temperatures near -1 C in those regions will rise to about +2 C. Sleet could develop in a few places in north central counties towards morning. Further south, temperatures will start out around 4 C and rise to about 7 C with rain developing in west Munster towards morning. Winds near the south coast will become southeast 40-60 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... A cold start for much of the country away from the south and west coasts, sleet or snow possible especially over higher portions of Connacht and Ulster, inland north Leinster, as rain moves steadily north in western counties. The rain will only be light or drizzly in Donegal and parts of north Connacht. Eventually the precipitation will change over to rain in all higher locations, temperatures will edge upwards from 1-4 C to 7-10 C in the north, and from 5-7 C to 11-13 C in the south. Winds easterly becoming southerly, 50-70 km/hr. Rainfalls of about 20-40 mm likely in western counties, 5-15 mm elsewhere (3-7 cms snow in early stages for some higher areas). The heaviest rain now appears headed for Clare, Kerry, Limerick and Cork, 50 mm could fall on higher terrain. Flooding may resume or worsen in a few places.

SATURDAY NIGHT into SUNDAY will continue mild, foggy at times, with further rainfalls of 10-30 mm in western counties developing towards morning then showery outbreaks during the day, leading to some further flooding, but only 5-15 mm further east except 15-25 mm on parts of Wicklow Mountains. Very mild with highs 11-14 C in southerly winds increasing to 50-80 km/hr.

MONDAY will continue windy and very mild with occasional rain, 10-20 mm possible in parts of west, and 20-30 mm near south coast, highs near 13 C and winds southerly 70-100 km/hr.

TUESDAY will be mild with occasional light rain, foggy at times, less windy with highs near 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... It may turn slightly cooler mid-week but mild south to southwest winds will soon resume. Highs will be near 8 C mid-week and back into 10-12 C range later. There are still fairly steady indications of increasingly volatile conditions as the jet stream intensifies later in the month around the Christmas to New Year holiday week.

It has been very mild for several days in most of the central and eastern United States and the weekend will bring near-record warmth with 21-24 C predicted for some of the larger cities. Thursday was very unsettled on the west coast but that storm is now circling around towards Oregon and somewhat improved conditions will slowly spread south behind it, meanwhile my local weather on Thursday was overcast with heavy rain at times and gusty winds, highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 12-12-2015 7:47am

Saturday, 12 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for heavy rainfall, 30-50 mm likely, south of a Galway to Meath line, with possible flooding developing mid-day. ALERT for moderate and in a few locations heavy snow north of Galway to Meath line, sometimes mixing with rain as far south as a Clare to Dublin line, with possible severe icing of higher roads, slippery conditions on all roads in both rain and snow zones. Travel with extreme caution, dense fog may hamper visibility at times.

TODAY ... Rain will continue until mid-day across the south and central counties, 30-50 mm likely, heaviest south Clare to Offaly to Kildare and over parts of Wicklow. Flooding may develop or worsen as a result. Snow is likely in a zone from Galway to Louth including much of Connacht and south Ulster, inland north Leinster. This snow will be quite variable in amounts but could reach 5-10 cms in places, with higher elevations more likely to see lasting accumulations. In between the rain and snow, near the track of an advancing frontal wave, expect a wide range of precipitation types including ice pellets, sleet, snow mixed with rain, and possible thunderstorms. The south will be very mild until mid-afternoon, 12-14 C in south to southwest winds of 40-70 km/hr, then cooler (7-8 C) in northerly winds 20-40 km/hr. Central counties near the track of the wave will edge up to 5-7 C briefly then fall back to 1-3 C. Further north, highs 2-4 C but temperatures may be closer to zero during snow and winds will be raw northeast 30-50 km/hr. There will be a slight clearance by afternoon in north Connacht and parts of northwest Ulster, and this may try to edge further south around evening.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light sleet in some inland counties, drizzly light rain near south coast, as winds back into southeast at 30 to 50 km/hr. Temperatures steady 1-3 C at first (5-7 C south coast) then rising slowly towards morning.

SUNDAY ... Windy and milder with outbreaks of light rain (5-10 mm for most, possibly 15 mm southwest Munster). Winds increasing to southeast 50-80 km/hr, highs 8-12 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY will be a very mild interval with occasional heavy rain each day, especially in western counties, winds at times quite strong from south, especially late Tuesday into early Wednesday when they may reach 80 km/hr with higher gusts. Temperatures around 10 to 12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK is for continued rather mild weather becoming quite stormy at times in the days before Christmas, potential for very strong winds increasing around 22nd-24th. Highs throughout near 10 C but there may be another north-south dividing type of weather event during this period, similar to today's outcome.

Over BRITAIN, today's strong weather gradient will set up across the north Midlands and may bring snow to parts of Cumbria, north Lancs, and Yorkshire, inland Tyneside and south Scotland. The heavier rain will move across Wales and central England, and it will be very mild in southern England most of the day, reaching 13-14 C in places. From tonight on, it will remain very mild most of the time up to the days before Christmas and then quite stormy.

The eastern and central United States and adjacent parts of Canada will have near-record warmth all weekend, highs could reach 24 C in Washington DC and 20 C in New York City, 15 C in the Great Lakes region. The far west is closer to normal with outbreaks of rain and mountain snow, my local weather on Friday was pleasant with sunshine at times, high near 8 C.

Watch for updates on today's stormy weather, please post your interesting weather observations in the storm discussion thread or the observations thread (don't forget to include a location if not obvious from your profile).

M.T. Cranium · 13-12-2015 9:33am

Sunday, 13 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy and mild, turning mostly dry after the band of mostly light rain finishes moving through Connacht, Leinster and Ulster, 5-10 mm for locations north of Galway to Dublin. Highs 10-12 C south, 8-10 C central and about 6-8 C north. Winds SE 50-80 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Windy with periods of rain becoming heavier, 10-20 mm likely in south, 30 mm in a few locations. Lows 8-10 C. Winds SSE 70-100 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Occasional rain, some heavier bursts likely, in strong SE to S'ly winds 70-110 km/hr, highs 10-12 C. About 10-15 mm further rain.

TUESDAY ... Windy and very mild with more rain, some of it rather heavy. About 15-25 mm rain, this steady accumulation may result in widespread flooding around this time, lows near 9 C and highs near 12 C. Winds will remain southerly 70-110 km/hr with some severe gusts possible near south coast.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy, rain tapering to showers and ending with some sunny spells as winds moderate, south to southwest 30-50 km/hr by afternoon. Lows near 9 C and highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Continued mild, moderate winds and more rain on Thursday, more variable Friday, but very windy Saturday with rain redeveloping. Expect about 30 mm through this period with temperatures 8-12 C. Beyond Saturday, a more westerly flow is likely and this may bring temperatures down to about 7 to 9 C. Some very strong winds could develop just before Christmas and then may occur again in the days after Christmas. Even though there is a lot of mild weather in the forecasts, there is a slim chance of Christmas Day being a bit colder with the potential for light snow flurries. But this is just a "maybe" at this point.

As we're running late (have been out) will just finish up with a note of record high temperatures yesterday and today in eastern parts of the U.S., highs in the 21-24 C range from Washington D.C. to New York City. My local weather by contrast was rather cold, windy and wet with a high near 6 C.

M.T. Cranium · 14-12-2015 8:21am

Monday, 14 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for heavy rainfall in Cork, south Kerry where 20-40 mm rain is likely in two rounds, one this morning, a second one this evening, increasing flood risk especially south Cork. Rainfalls elsewhere mainly in the 5-15 mm range.

TODAY ... Occasional rain, some heavier bursts likely, in strong SE to S'ly winds 70-110 km/hr, highs 10-12 C. About 5-15 mm further rain for most, but 20-40 mm over Cork and south Kerry, local flooding.

TONIGHT and TUESDAY ... Windy and very mild with more rain, some of it rather heavy. About 15-25 mm rain, this steady accumulation may result in more widespread flooding in south, central and southeast counties around this time, lows near 9 C and highs near 12 C. Winds will remain southerly 70-110 km/hr with some severe gusts possible near south coast.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy, rain tapering to showers and ending with some sunny spells as winds moderate, south to southwest 30-50 km/hr by afternoon. Lows near 9 C and highs near 12 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy, mild with periods of rain, 10-20 mm likely. Lows 7-9 C and highs 11-13 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, very mild, occasional light rain, lows 7-9 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Continued mild, quite windy at times, then turning slightly colder just before Christmas. Highs from 19th to 22nd near 10 C then more seasonable 6-8 C, gusty winds likely, slight chance of hill snow at times.

It may then turn very mild again with increasing risks of a severe wind storm (westerly most likely) as we approach the New Year.

This very mild pattern will affect most of Britain also, with some days reaching 14 or 15 C and possibly breaking records. That has already happened in the eastern U.S., for example on Sunday it was 23 C in Washington D.C. and 19 in New York City's Central Park, also around 17 C in parts of southern Michigan. One more day of this record warmth, then heavy rain will arrive, temperatures will only drop to about 10-12 C, still above normal there. Meanwhile my local weather on Sunday was mostly cloudy and cold with a high near 7 C, strong winds easing during the morning.

M.T. Cranium · 15-12-2015 8:17am

Tuesday, 15 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for heavy rainfall in south coast counties, Kerry to Waterford, about 20 to 30 mm likely through the day and overnight. Dry tomorrow for a change.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, breezy and very mild, intervals of mostly light rain although heavier near south coast where 20-30 mm possible, otherwise 5-15 mm should be the range. Highs 11-13 C, winds SE to S 40-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Rain tapering to showers, winds gradually veering to southwest 40 to 60 km/hr, lows 7-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, mostly dry except for some light showers expected late afternoon in the south, very mild. Highs 12-15 C in moderate southwest breezes.

THURSDAY ... Windy and mild, showers or periods of rain (about 10-15 mm) with lows 7-9 C and highs 12-14 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, mild, occasional showers. Lows 7-9 C and highs 11-13 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and mild with rain becoming heavy at times, potential for 20-30 mm, and winds increasing to SSW 70-110 km/hr, highs 10-12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Continued mild, another spike in temperatures expected around Tuesday 22nd when it could reach 13 C, but then turning somewhat colder and looking rather unsettled for the holiday period, too early to nail down details but some chance of mixed precipitation at least in the north as temperatures may be in the 3-7 C range from north to south around Christmas Day. The maps now showing up for the rest of the holiday period look increasingly stormy with potential for strong winds around 27th and again New Years Eve. Temperatures look closer to normal values in that interval in a strong southwest to west flow.

The picture for BRITAIN is about the same, very mild almost all the way to Christmas Eve then turning a bit colder.

Record warmth continued on Monday in the eastern half of the U.S., highs reached 20-24 C and today won't see much of a drop despite a weak cold front passing, a reload of this warmth will soon begin as low pressure forms in the southern plains states and heads northeast. Behind that low, much colder air is flooding south, with light snow covering much of Utah and Colorado at this point, extending into northern Arizona where it's -12 C at the Grand Canyon in the early morning hours. Further south, while it's cooler than average, highs for Phoenix will reach 15 C. My local weather is somewhat on the cold side as well, breezy with passing showers and hail or snow on hills, highs near 5 C.

M.T. Cranium · 16-12-2015 7:55am

Wednesday, 16 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, mostly dry except for some light showers expected late afternoon in the south, very mild. Highs 12-15 C in moderate southwest breezes 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, mild, rain during the early morning hours in western counties spreading across the country by dawn, 10-15 mm on average. Southerly winds 40-60 km/hr, temperatures steady 10-12 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy and mild, periods of rain ending in Leinster by late morning (about 10-15 mm there), clearing from west with a few later showers possible, little further accumulation, and highs 12-14 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, mild, occasional showers. Lows 7-9 C and highs 12-14 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and mild with rain becoming heavy at times, potential for 20-30 mm, and winds increasing to SSW 70-110 km/hr, highs 11-13 C.

SUNDAY to TUESDAY will continue very mild and it may get quite windy at times Monday night or Tuesday morning as deep low pressure passes well to the north. Different models have various estimates of wind speed potential, ranging from 70 km/hr to 120 km/hr in gusts for parts of Connacht. Highs will continue to run between 11 and 13 C. There could also be heavy rainfalls with this Monday-Tuesday frontal system.

OUTLOOK for DAYS LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS DAY ... Most guidance seems to agree that it will remain rather mild if perhaps closer to normal values by the 23rd and 24th, with some rain at times, highs 6-9 C, nights probably frost free but a little colder than previous days. There are indications of rain on Christmas Day with highs 8-10 C then turning a bit colder on the 26th-27th. Beyond that, very early indications are for windy, rather mild weather up to New Years Eve.

Over in BRITAIN the only minor difference in the outlook might be even milder temperatures later this week, some highs could reach 15 or even 16 C in southern England. Further north it will be more similar to the forecast above.

In NORTH AMERICA most of the east remains very mild although parts of Canada's Atlantic provinces saw snow on Tuesday. The east coast of the U.S. remains balmy at 15-18 C. Low pressure moving out of Colorado overnight has left 20-30 cms of snow in much of eastern Colorado, and while this storm will weaken it will bring snow to the northern plains states and upper Great Lakes, then it will redevelop near Baffin Island on the weekend and become the low that we are watching for possible strong winds in Ireland by early Tuesday. My local weather on the west coast (of Canada) was overcast, rather cold and a bit on the wet side with highs near 7 C. We might see a bit of snow around Christmas Eve here especially on hills.

M.T. Cranium · 17-12-2015 8:34am

Thursday, 17 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy to windy and mild, periods of rain ending in Leinster by late morning (about 5-10 mm additional rainfall there), then partially clearing from west with a few later showers possible, more frequent in west, highs 12-14 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, mild, rain at times towards morning, lows 7-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, mild, occasional showers, and highs 12-14 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and mild with rain becoming heavy at times, potential for 20-30 mm, and winds increasing to SSW 70-110 km/hr, highs 11-13 C.

SUNDAY to TUESDAY will continue very mild and it may get quite windy at times Monday night or Tuesday morning as deep low pressure passes well to the north. Different models now have various estimates of wind speed potential, ranging from 70 km/hr to 110 km/hr in gusts for parts of Connacht. Highs will continue to run between 11 and 13 C. There could also be heavy rainfalls with this Monday-Tuesday frontal system.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for unsettled and increasingly windy weather in the days around Christmas, winds may gust to 80 or 90 km/hr at times on 24th and 25th with highs 7-9 C, showers or periods of rain, then it could turn even stormier 26th-27th with deep low pressure forming over the central Atlantic, too soon to hoist a red flag on this but it matches up with research indications of a very stormy interval around these dates. For now, would say that we have a very close watch on developments. No concrete signs of colder weather, at least not cold enough for widespread snow, but hints that the temperature trend is generally downward after the 22nd.

All of the above is basically true for Britain also, with the chance of a few locations reaching 15 or 16 C (actually Malin Head did that overnight at 04h).

The eastern U.S. will see a gradual cooling trend and the Great Lakes region will have a brief taste of winter with lake effect snowfalls developing over the next several days but this won't last, much milder weather will return to those regions for the Christmas week. It is quite cold in the far west, my local weather on Wednesday was sunny and cold with a sharp frost, highs near 4 C and a risk of sleet or wet snow developing later today.

M.T. Cranium · 18-12-2015 8:38am

Friday, 18 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy and very mild, occasional rain this morning will become more showery with some dry intervals by afternoon, winds southerly 40-70 km/hr and highs 12-14 C. Rainfalls about 10 mm.

TONIGHT ... Windy and very mild, occasional rain, winds southerly 50-90 km/hr and lows 11-13 C. Rainfalls about 5 mm.

SATURDAY ... Very windy at times, squally showers, winds southerly 70 to 110 km/hr, highs 12-14 C, and about 10-15 mm rain in places.

SUNDAY ... Overnight showers will clear, then partly cloudy, not quite as mild. Morning lows 6-8 C and afternoon highs 8-10 C in moderate southwest winds of 50-70 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Occasional rain, windy, mild. Lows 7-9 C and highs 11-13 C. About 10-20 mm rain and southerly winds 60-100 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Windy during the overnight and morning hours, showers, temperatures steady near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, not quite as mild, highs 7-9 C.

THURSDAY (Christmas Eve) ... Overcast, occasional rain, highs 7-9 C.

FRIDAY (Christmas Day) ... Showers or periods of rain, highs 6-8 C for west and north, but 8-11 C in east and south.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Guidance is now rather mixed and one version is showing considerably colder weather for about two days 26th-27th with the risk of wintry showers in the north, then reverting to the mild southerly flow by the 28th. Other guidance makes that colder turn rather slight and more of a westerly than a northerly spell. So with that variation, I'm going to suggest a compromise of occasional showers and 6-8 C in the days after Christmas with just the slight chance of snow showers on higher slopes.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with periods of sleet or wet snow then a cold rain, highs about 3 C. Nice to see a bit of snow although it did not leave an accumulation at my elevation anyway.

M.T. Cranium · 19-12-2015 8:20am

Saturday, 19 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Very windy (S-SW 70-110 km/hr) in parts of Connacht and west Ulster for a few hours, but then winds should ease to 40-70 km/hr, while other regions will start around 50-90 km/hr before easing this afternoon. There will be a few bursts of moderate showery rain but amounts will generally be only about 5-10 mm. Continuing mild, highs 12-14 C.

TONIGHT ... Periods of rain in the south will spread to the east coast, with about 10-15 mm possible. Further west, just a few showers or occasional light rain, 2-5 mm. Turning slightly colder with morning lows about 6-8 C. Winds moderate southwest 30-50 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, passing showers may be briefly heavy, chance of thunder in north-central counties, moderate WSW winds 50-80 km/hr. Highs about 9 C.

MONDAY ... Early morning rain and strong winds (SW 70-100 km/hr) should begin to ease around mid-day, morning lows near 7 C and afternoon highs about 11 C.

TUESDAY ... Another round of squally showers, gusty winds to 100 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, less windy with lows 3-5 C and highs about 8-10 C.

THURSDAY (Christmas Eve) ... Windy with gusts to 100 km/hr in exposed areas and possibly very windy in north with westerly gusts to 120 km/hr, a few squally showers, then improving weather later in the day as this storm moves rapidly away, temperatures in the 5 to 9 C range.

FRIDAY (Christmas Day) ... The current indications are generally showing a calm start with fog or mist likely, then some rain pushing in from the south, temperatures mostly in the 6-9 C range but possibly a bit colder over higher parts of the north where a bit of sleet can't be ruled out. Light rainfalls generally of about 5-10 mm. This picture could change to something a bit more active given that we are still about six days away.

OUTLOOK ... Becoming milder again, then quite stormy at times as deep low pressure areas form in the central Atlantic and move towards Donegal Bay. We can't be fully certain how strong these winds may become, it depends on how close to land the low pressure centres travel. The most likely time for strong winds would be around 26th-27th and 29th-30th in two separate events.

Over in BRITAIN, the above picture will be fairly similar in most regions although there will be somewhat milder temperatures in southern England as well as less rain in general there.

Some areas of eastern NORTH AMERICA have cooled down to more normal temperatures with a few lake effect snow squalls although it is not a major outbreak, nor will it last very long, as temperatures rapidly warm up again this coming week, to around 17-20 C in the major eastern cities.

My local weather meanwhile was cloudy with a few brief sleety showers, and cool, with highs about 6 or 7 C. We are in a rather non-descript weather pattern now and this will continue right up to New Years apparently. I will attempt to describe it anyway.

M.T. Cranium · 20-12-2015 8:24am

Sunday, 20 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Variable cloud, passing showers may be briefly heavy, chance of thunder in north-central counties, moderate WSW winds 50-80 km/hr. Highs about 9 C.

TONIGHT ... Winds increasing to SW 70-100 km/hr with about 10-15 mm rain spreading across the country mostly after midnight, temperatures steady at first 4-6 C then rising to 10 C by morning.

MONDAY ... Early morning rain and strong winds (SW 70-100 km/hr) should begin to ease around mid-day as some clearing develops, still a few showers likely, with temperatures falling from about 11 C in the morning to 7-9 C.

TUESDAY ... Another round of squally showers, gusty winds to 100 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, less windy for the first part of the day with lows 2-4 C and highs about 7-9 C. Strong winds and rain will sweep in late in the day or during the first half of the overnight hours, peaking in the north around 0300h with gusts to 110 km/hr.

note: a very intense storm will be heading across parts of northern Scotland and the Faeroes towards Norway, if you have travel plans to those regions Thursday morning, they may be delayed. Gusts to 150 km/hr are possible in northern Scotland early Thursday.

THURSDAY (Christmas Eve) ... Windy during the early morning in parts of the north, with gusts to 110 km/hr in exposed areas but the south may only see peak gusts around 60 to 80 km/hr, with a few squally showers in cold westerly winds, some chance of a few of these showers turning wintry over higher parts of the north towards evening, with temperatures in the 5 to 9 C range for most during the day, but falling to 1-3 C in the evening in some central and northern counties. No large accumulations are expected.

FRIDAY (Christmas Day) ... The current indications are generally showing a calm start with fog or mist likely, then some rain pushing in from the south, temperatures mostly in the 6-9 C range but possibly a bit colder over higher parts of the north where a bit of sleet can't be ruled out especially during the early morning. Light rainfalls generally of about 5-10 mm. This picture could still change to something a bit more active given that we are still about five days away.

SATURDAY (St Stephen's Day) ... Turning milder with occasional light rain, southerly winds 50-80 km/hr developing, highs near 9 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Guidance is rather divergent after Christmas Day, but there are indications of strong winds as early as the 27th on some models, and either a second storm near New Years Eve, or the first storm weaker but leading to a mild spell and the second event anyway. Temperatures for most of the week between Christmas and New Years should remain well above freezing and may reach 10 or 11 C at peak, but some guidance then begins to show somewhat colder temperatures developing early in January.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with a few spits of light rain, and a big crack of thunder at 8:30 p.m. although the cell was about five kms to my north and nothing was falling here, I imagine it was hail or sleet on the local mountains. The high was close to our seasonal average of 7 C.

M.T. Cranium · 21-12-2015 8:58am

Monday, 21 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... This morning's rain and strong winds (SW 70-100 km/hr) should begin to ease around mid-day as some clearing develops, as winds veer more to the west (40-70 km/hr by afternoon), but a few showers will likely redevelop in parts of the west and north, with temperatures falling from about 11 C in the morning to 7-9 C this afternoon. About 10 mm more rain will fall in the next few hours, some minor flooding may develop on roads in Leinster and east Ulster.

TONIGHT ... Another windy, wet frontal system will arrive and this one will be slightly stronger, with south to southwest wind gusts to 110 km/hr and 10-15 mm rainfalls, temperatures rising during the night to about 10-12 C by morning. Winter officially begins with the winter solstice at 4:48 a.m. Tuesday.

TUESDAY ... During the morning, squally showers, gusty winds to 110 km/hr, and temperatures steady 8-10 C. The afternoon will once again see improvements and showers more confined to the west.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, less windy for the first part of the day, just a few isolated showers near northwest coasts mainly, with colder morning lows of 2-4 C and highs about 7-9 C. Strong winds and rain will sweep in late in the day or during the late afternoon on Atlantic coasts, and will peak during the first half of the overnight hours, with south to southwest gusts to 120 km/hr on exposed coasts, generally 80-100 km/hr most other regions. This wind and rain storm will begin to moderate towards sunrise Thursday after dropping 15-25 mm of rain. Some minor wind damage is likely in exposed parts of Connacht and west Ulster, and possibly near the south coast. The storm will be even more intense for northern Scotland where gusts to about 140 km/hr are likely Thursday morning.

THURSDAY (Christmas Eve) ... Windy during the early morning in parts of the north, with gusts to 110 km/hr in exposed areas but winds in most of the south will quickly settle back to 40-60 km/hr during the morning hours and by afternoon most places will have moderate southwest winds and a few passing showers, some becoming squally with hail, and some chance of a few of these showers turning wintry over higher parts of the north towards evening, with temperatures in the 5 to 9 C range for most during the day, but falling to 1-3 C in the evening in some central and northern counties. No large snow accumulations are expected.

FRIDAY (Christmas Day) ... Foggy to start with drizzle, possibly a touch of sleet or wet snow over northern hills, but slowly warming up during the mid-day and afternoon hours in an increasing southeasterly wind reaching 50-70 km/hr by late in the day, with some rain (5-15 mm) pushing in from the south, morning temperatures around 2 to 5 C in most places, then slowly warming to about 6-9 C by afternoon and 8-11 C by evening.

SATURDAY (St Stephen's Day) ... Mild and windy with occasional rain, southerly winds 60-90 km/hr developing, highs near 10 or 11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The last days of the month and year will probably remain quite mild in a generally southerly flow, and there is a risk of strong or even severe winds developing at some point, guidance is having trouble resolving the complexity of the situation once a very deep low develops in the western Atlantic and drifts closer to the central parts of the ocean around the 27th. What is more certain is that temperatures will be generally well above freezing and near 10 C most days. Early January then begins to look considerably colder in more of a northwesterly flow.

All of the above will be fairly similar for BRITAIN. The eastern and central United States will be very mild through Christmas and well into the following week, with temperatures as much as 10-15 degrees above normal in many places (highs will reach 20 C at times). It is closer to normal over the western states and much of west-central Canada, my local weather on Sunday was overcast with brief showers and highs near 7 C.

M.T. Cranium · 22-12-2015 8:20am

Tuesday, 22 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Strong southwest winds easing to 40-70 km/hr by mid-day, rain ending for most regions but persisting in south Leinster until about 1100h, a further 5-10 mm likely. Temperatures peaked in the midnight to 0300h period reaching 14 C in places, and are now slowly falling but they should level off soon at about 7-9 C. Partial clearing will spread into western and northern counties soon and this trend will slowly begin to materialize in the south and east at least by afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Partly to mostly cloudy, colder than most recent nights, isolated showers. Winds moderate southwesterly 30-50 km/hr near coasts, lows 2-5 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain developing with strong southerly winds by afternoon and evening. Highs 8-11 C and rainfalls of 10-20 mm. The strong winds will peak at about 70-110 km/hr just before midnight in most regions, and will then ease off near Atlantic coasts while staying rather strong all night over eastern counties.

THURSDAY (Christmas Eve 24th) ... Becoming windy again in parts of Connacht and west Munster, but this secondary disturbance will weaken rapidly as it crosses the country around mid-day, bringing a final spell of showery rain and gusty winds (50-80 km/hr). Morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs 6-8 C. Colder by afternoon and evening, some of the showers becoming wintry over higher parts of the northwest. At midnight (the real Christmas Eve) it's likely to be cold (1-3 C north, 3-5 C south), somewhat misty but with a few stars and the full moon showing through at times, and there could be sleety light showers in some parts too.

FRIDAY (Christmas Day 25th) ... Overcast, winds gradually strengthening from the southeast to reach 50-80 km/hr by late in the day, rain spreading rapidly north, perhaps starting as sleet over higher terrain. (Glenshane Pass and similar routes could be icy). Turning milder all through the day and into the evening, temperatures near 4 C in the morning, 7-9 C afternoon and 10-13 C by evening. About 15-30 mm of rain is possible.

SATURDAY (St Stephen's Day 26th) ... Models are now in disagreement about what happens after the Christmas Day warm front moves through. Some models keep it slowly advancing north which would imply occasional rain and highs 10-12 C, others cut off the rain event with a brief spell of slack winds and somewhat cooler weather. I think the continued rain solution is probably more likely.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... It seems likely to remain mild and whatever happens on the 26th, the southerly flow will resume and become quite strong at times as frontal waves form ahead of a very deep low pressure system in the central Atlantic Ocean. If one of these waves forms a strong enough secondary low, there could be a spell of very strong winds around the 29th or 30th. Temperatures will be in the 8-12 C range much of the time. Then it seems likely to turn colder in stages after a windy and mild New Years.

Most of the above will apply to BRITAIN, the overnight 23rd-24th windstorm will be more severe in northern Scotland (gusts to 130 km/hr), but will largely miss southern England. In general southern England could see more fog and one or two colder nights than other parts due to closer proximity of high pressure over the near continent.

As mentioned yesterday, the eastern and central United States and most of eastern Canada are in a record warm pattern that may bring temperatures as high as 20 C with the risk of severe storms along a cold front in the Ohio valley and inland southeast tomorrow and Thursday. Meanwhile out west it is closer to normal temperature values, Monday here was overcast with light rain at times and a high near 6 C.

M.T. Cranium · 23-12-2015 8:29am

Wednesday, 23 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for strong winds gusting to 110 km/hr in exposed locations this afternoon and evening, accompanied by 15-25 mm rainfalls.

TODAY .. Windy, occasional showers turning heavier by afternoon and evening, peak wind gusts 110 km/hr (south to southwest) late afternoon to evening hours, 15-25 mm rainfalls, highs 10-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Further showers and strong winds easing for a time in parts of the western coastal counties, lows 4-6 C.

THURSDAY (Christmas Eve 24th) ... Winds will increase again to about 60 to 90 km/hr around mid-day from the west, showers becoming rather squally, temperatures steady 5-8 C.

OVERNIGHT 24th-25th ... A few isolated wintry showers mainly on higher ground in the northwest, misty or foggy in some areas, cold, lows 1-3 C inland north, 3-5 C south and east, and 4-6 C western coastal counties. Winds becoming rather slack inland. Full moon may occasionally be visible, possibly with a lunar halo.

CHRISTMAS DAY ... Rain spreading north, turning milder in stages with winds increasing to southeast 50-80 km/hr. Mid-day temperatures 5-8 C but could reach 10-13 C evening especially southern half of the country. Rainfalls about 10 to 20 mm for most, 20 to 30 mm possible in south.

ST STEPHEN's DAY (26th) ... Mild with rain and moderate southwest winds, highs 8-12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Fairly reliable indications now that strong winds may develop around the 28th in an otherwise mild and moderate period of sometimes wet weather in a generally southwesterly flow. This stronger interval of southerly winds could be as strong as 120 km/hr, so stay tuned. The mild spell should last into the first day or two of next year.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with light showers and it remains rather cool at about 7 C.

M.T. Cranium · 23-12-2015 8:59pm

UPDATE __ Wed 23 Dec 2015 __ 8 p.m.

Radar is showing a squall line feature approaching Clare and Galway. This may hold together for about two hours producing locally damaging wind gusts, bursts of heavier rain and hail. There is some risk of thunder. The feature should begin to dissipate later this evening when it reaches a line from about Sligo to Limerick. With that weakening, the winds across most of the western counties will fall off to about 50 to 70 km/hr before picking up again tomorrow morning to 70-90 km/hr.

M.T. Cranium · 24-12-2015 8:07am

Thursday, 24 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brief sunny intervals, passing showers (about 3 to 5 mm for most locations) that may turn a little wintry at times on higher ground in western counties. Feeling rather cold by recent standards, highs about 6 to 8 C.

TONIGHT ... A few isolated wintry showers mainly on higher ground in the northwest, misty or foggy in some areas, cold, lows 1-3 C inland north, 3-5 C south and east, and 4-6 C western coastal counties. Winds becoming rather slack inland. Full moon may occasionally be visible, possibly with a lunar halo. (the timing of the full moon to be exact is 11:11 a.m. Christmas Day).

CHRISTMAS DAY ... Rain spreading north, turning milder in stages with winds increasing to southeast 50-80 km/hr. Mid-day temperatures 5-8 C but could reach 10-13 C evening especially southern half of the country. Rainfalls about 10 to 20 mm for most, 20 to 30 mm possible in south. Stronger south to southwest winds will develop over west Munster by evening.

ST STEPHEN's DAY (26th) ... During the morning, mild with rain and moderate southwest winds, highs 8-12 C. Later on, partial clearing and turning a bit cooler in westerly winds.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Mild with mostly southerly winds to New Years, with the risk of an interval of very strong winds. Occasional rain, highs 9-12 C. The most likely interval for stormy weather appears to be 29th-30th.

See previous day's forecast for details about Britain and eastern United States where it will be very mild (warm actually, 25 C today for Washington D.C.) ... my local weather has been overcast with occasional sleety showers and highs of only 3 C.

M.T. Cranium · 25-12-2015 7:24am

Friday, 25 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... The lingering cold in the north will moderate rather slowly, but southern and central counties will turn steadily milder (reaching 10-12 C) with 15-25 mm of rain for many places, although it may be more persistent in the southeast than elsewhere. There is a slight risk of sleet or wet snow when the precipitation begins further north around mid-day but it's more likely to be a cold rain with a slight fog as temperatures slowly rise to the 4-7 C range. A raw southeast wind will make it feel even colder in some parts of Ulster and north Leinster. Further south this wind will be mild and will turn more southerly.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming showery, then ending in some western counties. Lows about 7-9 C.

St STEPHEN's DAY (Saturday 26th) ... Morning showers, then partial clearing, highs around 10 or 11 C except 7-9 C in northwest. Moderate westerly winds developing during the mid-day to afternoon hours.

SUNDAY ... Breezy and mild with occasional rain, winds southerly 40-70 km/hr and lows of 4-7 C, highs 10-12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Continued breezy and mild, mainly southerly winds to about New Years, with the risk of a strong or even severe wind storm on or about Wednesday the 30th, and a possible second windy period on New Years Day. I expect that we will have greater clarity on how severe and the timing of these events either tomorrow or Sunday. Temperatures will be generally above normal and near 10 C most of the time to New Years. It may then start to turn considerably colder.

My local weather on Thursday was cold and damp with sleet showers and a high of about 4 C. This was in contrast to the very warm weather in eastern parts of North America where it broke records for the 24th of December in many places. This very mild spell is set to continue in the east to about New Years Eve.

Hope you're enjoying your Christmas Day and stay safe on the roads which may get a bit slick with this rain, especially in northern areas where it could be marginally icy in a few spots.

M.T. Cranium · 26-12-2015 7:51am

Saturday, 26 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain will linger over the southeast for much of the day bringing further accumulations of 15-25 mm. The milder air will also remain in place there keeping temperatures around 10 or 11 C. A slight cooling trend will be noted in counties from about Dublin to Cork and Kerry with temperatures slowly falling off to 7-8 C. Clearing will be late to develop in western counties but there should be enough afternoon sunshine to bring temperatures up a little in parts of Connacht and Ulster that have remained in the cooler air mass, so generally a dry day with highs near 7 C there.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, mostly dry, lows 3-6 C.

SUNDAY ... Generally dry conditions except for showers or light rain near Atlantic coasts and possibly some parts of the south. Highs 8-10 C in moderate southerly winds.

MONDAY ... Windy and milder, occasional rain, southerly winds to about 90 or 100 km/hr in gusts, at least in more exposed locations. Lows 5-7 C and highs 10-12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The guidance still hints at storm potential with frequent "almost" or "near miss" situations on the GFS model from 29th to about 3 January before yet another (probably phantom) major storm depicted for the 7th of January. The European model has backed away from anything too intense all through the period from Monday to New Years. While temperatures should generally be mild, there are hints of colder weather at times such as New Years Eve and some days in early January, but confidence is rather low in all details, just the overall southerly flow seems reliable.

My weather on Christmas Day was pleasant with some sunshine at times and a high near 5 C. It remains near-record warm in parts of eastern North America where highs reached 21 C in places on Christmas Day, a slight cooling trend is now expected but still mainly above 10 C for most until New Years.

M.T. Cranium · 27-12-2015 8:19am

Sunday, 27 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Watch for a few icy spots on roads in central counties, especially in lower lying valley locations, to about 0900h. Sunny for at least the first half of the day in many areas, becoming cloudy first near the south and southwest coasts, some light rain may follow there, but otherwise it should remain largely dry. Winds light at first will begin to increase gradually to reach southeast 40-60 km/hr by late afternoon.
Highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Becoming very windy in south coast and western counties, winds southeast to south 70-110 km/hr, rain (5-15 mm) and temperatures steady near 10 or 11 C. Further east, not quite as windy, and rain more intermittent (3-7 mm). Temperatures slowly rising to about 10 C by morning.

MONDAY ... Very windy during the morning, easing mid-day and afternoon. These strong southerly winds will begin to veer more to southwest and west as they moderate. Rain becoming showery then partial clearing from the west reaching at least the western half of the country. Highs 10-12 C but slightly cooler by afternoon.

TUESDAY ... Becoming very windy again, southerly winds 80-120 km/hr in exposed parts of the west, as an intense ocean storm (possibly Frank?) moves north well offshore towards Iceland. Periods of rain (10-20 mm) and temperatures steady in the range of 9 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy and possibly becoming windy again, not quite as mild, morning lows 5-7 C and afternoon highs 8-10 C.

THURSDAY (New Years' Eve) ... Breezy to windy, showers possibly wintry over high ground, temperatures generally steady 5-7 C at lower elevations, 2-4 C higher slopes.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There could be further strong winds at times but a lot of the guidance is now beginning to hint at the milder air masses meeting more resistance from cold air spreading west from central Europe. Although this may only make it as far as eastern Britain and Scotland, there would be a knock-on effect in terms of an intermediate air mass that will generally be closer to normal January temperatures than the current late December mild spell.

So for BRITAIN, it's basically a similar picture although further east the next two or three days of very strong wind gusts may be more moderate, while the New Years colder weather may find it easier to arrive there.

The very mild weather in the eastern U.S. continues with a strong disturbance moving out of Texas in two waves, one of which will rapidly move across the northeast states today and tonight, while a stronger package of energy will move slowly northeast spreading heavy rainfalls and some severe storms (there has been quite a severe outbreak already on Saturday in eastern Texas).

My local weather on "Boxing Day" as it is known here was overcast and cold with sleet this evening falling as snow just slightly higher up on local hills. The temperature has been somewhere between 1 and 3 C most of the day.

M.T. Cranium · 27-12-2015 8:19am

Sunday, 27 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Watch for a few icy spots on roads in central counties, especially in lower lying valley locations, to about 0900h. Sunny for at least the first half of the day in many areas, becoming cloudy first near the south and southwest coasts, some light rain may follow there, but otherwise it should remain largely dry. Winds light at first will begin to increase gradually to reach southeast 40-60 km/hr by late afternoon.
Highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Becoming very windy in south coast and western counties, winds southeast to south 70-110 km/hr, rain (5-15 mm) and temperatures steady near 10 or 11 C. Further east, not quite as windy, and rain more intermittent (3-7 mm). Temperatures slowly rising to about 10 C by morning.

MONDAY ... Very windy during the morning, easing mid-day and afternoon. These strong southerly winds will begin to veer more to southwest and west as they moderate. Rain becoming showery then partial clearing from the west reaching at least the western half of the country. Highs 10-12 C but slightly cooler by afternoon.

TUESDAY ... Becoming very windy again, southerly winds 80-120 km/hr in exposed parts of the west, as an intense ocean storm (possibly Frank?) moves north well offshore towards Iceland. Periods of rain (10-20 mm) and temperatures steady in the range of 9 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy and possibly becoming windy again, not quite as mild, morning lows 5-7 C and afternoon highs 8-10 C.

THURSDAY (New Years' Eve) ... Breezy to windy, showers possibly wintry over high ground, temperatures generally steady 5-7 C at lower elevations, 2-4 C higher slopes.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There could be further strong winds at times but a lot of the guidance is now beginning to hint at the milder air masses meeting more resistance from cold air spreading west from central Europe. Although this may only make it as far as eastern Britain and Scotland, there would be a knock-on effect in terms of an intermediate air mass that will generally be closer to normal January temperatures than the current late December mild spell.

So for BRITAIN, it's basically a similar picture although further east the next two or three days of very strong wind gusts may be more moderate, while the New Years colder weather may find it easier to arrive there.

The very mild weather in the eastern U.S. continues with a strong disturbance moving out of Texas in two waves, one of which will rapidly move across the northeast states today and tonight, while a stronger package of energy will move slowly northeast spreading heavy rainfalls and some severe storms (there has been quite a severe outbreak already on Saturday in eastern Texas).

My local weather on "Boxing Day" as it is known here was overcast and cold with sleet this evening falling as snow just slightly higher up on local hills. The temperature has been somewhere between 1 and 3 C most of the day.

M.T. Cranium · 28-12-2015 8:25am

Monday, 28 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERTS for two intervals of very strong winds, first one this morning 0600 to 1200h (South-southeast 70-110 km/hr) then a second one tomorrow afternoon about 1500h to 2300h (south 80-120 km/hr), slight easing of those winds except for a brief resurgence Wednesday morning (70-110 km/hr) in western counties. Also some locally heavy rainfalls mainly on higher terrain in southwest and possibly also in Galway and Mayo. While the two events will give general rainfalls of 15-25 mm, some local amounts of 50-100 mm are possible, which would result in flooding, most likely in south Kerry and Cork.

TODAY ... Very windy this morning, south-southeast 70-110 km/hr, with rainfalls generally 10-20 mm, locally heavier in southwest. Temperatures steady 10-12 C. Winds easing slightly this afternoon and veering more to southwest and then west, temperatures falling slowly.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals, wintry showers on higher terrain in north, a few rain showers elsewhere, lows 1 to 4 C.

TUESDAY ... Gradually becoming very windy with peak gusts 80-120 km/hr in western counties, 70-110 km/hr east, by afternoon and evening. Highs near 11 or 12 C by early evening. About 10-20 mm rainfall for most, but 40-70 mm possible in southwest, 20-40 mm in parts of western Connacht.

WEDNESDAY ... Still quite windy in parts of west Munster and Connacht, west Ulster, with further rain or showers, a few gusts to 110 km/hr possible. Temperatures will be sliding down early in the day to around 6-8 C then will stay in that range for the afternoon before falling steadily overnight.

THURSDAY (New Years' Eve) ... Variable cloud, wintry showers at times, mostly on higher ground but possibly briefly at or near sea level, as temperatures remain rather cold (2-6 C). Moderate southwest winds gusting to 70 km/hr will add some chill. At midnight it is likely to be quite cold (within a degree or two of freezing) with scattered wintry showers.

FRIDAY (New Years' Day) ... Windy and cold with rain or sleet (most likely on higher ground in north), strong southeast winds 70-110 km/hr, temperatures in the range 3-7 C except 7-10 C in west Munster.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Cold and unsettled, it still seems most likely that the colder air from the east will remain over eastern and northern Britain if it does arrive, but there will not be as much mild sourcing of the Atlantic flows which will be more of a modified arctic variety. Occasionally, very strong winds could develop in this pattern in early to mid January. Highs will be mostly 5-8 C.

My local weather on Sunday was cold and wet, highs were only about 3 C but the precipitation stayed mostly rain. Meanwhile, heavy rain is moving into the central states from the Gulf coast, and it remains quite mild in the eastern states.

M.T. Cranium · 29-12-2015 7:40am

Tuesday, 29 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERTS for another interval of very strong winds from offshore storm "Frank" peaking this afternoon about 1500h to 2300h (south 80-120 km/hr), then a slight easing of those winds except for a brief resurgence Wednesday morning (southwest 70-110 km/hr) in western counties. Also some locally heavy rainfalls mainly on higher terrain in southwest and possibly also in Galway and Mayo. While most locations will see about 15-30 mm, some local amounts of 50-100 mm are possible, which would result in flooding, most likely in south Kerry and Cork as well as parts of Waterford and Wicklow. The flood risk in Connacht is less definite as 30-50 mm is expected on higher terrain there..

TODAY ... The morning will be fairly temperate with a few sunny intervals and passing light showers, winds slowly increasing from the southwest at 40-60 km/hr by mid-day, then gradually becoming very windy with peak gusts 80-130 km/hr in western counties, 80-120 km/hr south coast and 70-110 km/hr east as well as any exposed locations inland, by afternoon and evening. Highs near 11 or 12 C by early evening. By morning, about 15-30 mm rainfall for most, but 50-100 mm possible in southwest, 20-40 mm in parts of western Connacht.

TONIGHT ... Heavy rain continuing in most areas, see above for expected storm totals by morning. Flood risk appears high from small rivers draining higher ground from Kerry and Cork to Waterford and Wicklow. Winds easing to southwest 40-60 km/hr, temperatures steady 7-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Still quite windy in parts of west Munster and Connacht, west Ulster, with further rain or showers, a few gusts to 110 km/hr possible during the morning then winds easing again during the afternoon. Temperatures will be sliding down early in the day to around 6-8 C then will stay in that range for the afternoon before falling steadily overnight.

THURSDAY (New Years' Eve) ... Variable cloud, wintry showers at times, mostly on higher ground but possibly briefly at or near sea level, as temperatures remain rather cold (2-6 C). Moderate southwest winds gusting to 70 km/hr will add some chill. At midnight it is likely to be quite cold (within a degree or two of freezing) with scattered wintry showers.

FRIDAY (New Years' Day) ... Windy and cold with rain or sleet (most likely on higher ground in north), strong southeast winds 70-110 km/hr, temperatures in the range 3-7 C except 7-10 C in west Munster. This storm will have less mild air to work with and could produce heavy icing conditions on higher summits. Heavy sleet or wet snow is likely above 500 metres. This storm could be given the name Gertrude.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Cold and unsettled, it still seems most likely that the colder air from the east will remain over eastern and northern Britain if it does arrive, but there will not be as much mild sourcing of the Atlantic flows which will be more of a modified arctic variety. Occasionally, very strong winds could develop in this pattern in early to mid January. Highs will be mostly 5-8 C.

The forecast for BRITAIN is generally similar with the strongest winds from "Frank" affecting Wales and western Scotland. There will be somewhat higher risks of wintry precipitation in early January if a frontal boundary develops across parts of central Britain. It does not look as though January will continue the extremely mild trend of November-December, temperatures look set to be closer to normal values.

Across eastern North America, the milder air remains in place as a strong low moves slowly through the Chicago region towards Lake Erie. North of a frontal boundary, bands of sleet, freezing rain and snow have developed. The heaviest snow will be in central Michigan and Ontario, freezing rain most likely on the north shores of the lower Great Lakes. This storm will gradually weaken and jump forward to a new centre in the Gulf of Maine on Wednesday. Further south, temperatures will stay in the range of 10-15 C around Washington D.C. and 20-23 C in the southeast states.

My local weather continued cold but there were some brief sunny breaks for a change, highs near 4 C. We have yet to see any really active winter weather at my location despite a lot of it in nearby mountains.

M.T. Cranium · 30-12-2015 8:44am

Wednesday, 30 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for heavy rainfall will expire soon in eastern counties but 10-15 mm further rainfall could exacerbate flooding already developing there. Severe flood risks are ongoing in parts of the southwest after 50-75 mm rainfalls, only slight further amounts appear likely today. ALERT for strong winds has generally expired from the first part of "Frank" but a secondary low now moving north past Kerry will bring on a limited second round of strong winds which could gust as high as 130 km/hr from the south to southwest, mainly confined to coastal areas of Cork, Kerry, and Clare this morning, but possibly showing up in more exposed locations further inland. The effects of this secondary low further inland and across Leinster around mid-day or early afternoon are expected to be less severe but watch for updates.

TODAY ... Heavy rain ending in Leinster and east Ulster later this morning after 10-15 mm additional falls. A few thundery showers over Connacht will spread into west Ulster this morning, 3-5 mm amounts from these. In general winds in eastern and central regions will be south to southwest 50-80 km/hr while western counties and parts of the south coast could see a very windy interval this morning of rapidly veering S-SW-WNW winds 70-120 km/hr with potential for locally damaging gusts near exposed coasts to 130 km/hr. This feature will probably weaken around mid-day when it crosses higher terrain in Connacht, but watch for updates. As it progresses, somewhat drier air will flow in from the west and temperatures will tend to remain steady in the 7-9 C range.

TONIGHT ... Intervals of light rain may turn to sleet or even snow inland especially north of a Limerick to Dublin line where 1-3 cms of wet snow could accumulate especially on higher ground. It will be quite cold (-1 to +2 C) away from the milder south coast, where lows of 4-6 C are likely. Some icy stretches of road could be encountered in higher parts of Connacht, inland Leinster and south Ulster.

THURSDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, cold, with passing showers of hail or sleet, some snow possible on higher ground, amounts generally slight with 1-3 cm potential in a few places. Highs 4-7 C with warmest readings in the coastal south and west.

NEW YEAR's EVE (midnight) conditions will be generally overcast with a few clear patches, the frequency of wintry showers will be dropping off so many will have a dry and bracing New Years Eve with temperatures near the freezing point (-2 to +2 C).

FRIDAY (New Years' Day) will be windy and rain will be slowly advancing into the south and west during the late morning, reaching other regions in the afternoon, as winds increase to E-SE 60-100 km/hr. About 20-30 mm rain can be expected from this system and some sleet or wet snow on higher summits as temperatures near sea level will only be in the range of 6-9 C.

SATURDAY will continue, wet, windy and rather cold with gradual improvements later in the day as winds turn to a southwest then eventually westerly direction at 50-70 km/hr, highs will be near 7 C.

SUNDAY is expected to be wet and windy with 20-40 mm rainfall potential and highs 8-11 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will probably see even more rain and amounts could be excessive leading to more severe flood risks, temperatures will be steady in the 5-7 C range, and this storm could produce heavy snow on high slopes above 400 metres.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for more wet and windy weather and some spells that are close enough to freezing to bring snow or sleet into the mix.

Over in BRITAIN today will become quite windy and very mild, colder air won't reach them until tonight or Thursday morning in most cases. The general picture is similar with a lot of unsettled and at times stormy weather over the next two weeks.

The recent sleet and snow storm in parts of the Great Lakes region moved quickly through New England into eastern Canada where it is spawning the low expected off the south coast of Ireland on New Years Day. Further south this low had little effect on the record warm spell (New York City is currently at about 7 deg above normal (C) for their warmest ever December).

My local weather was cold and sunny with a lot of fresh snow visible on the nearby mountains. Highs were about 4 C at sea level.

M.T. Cranium · 31-12-2015 8:35am

Thursday, 31 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for heavy rainfalls and strong winds mainly affecting the southern half of the country from about mid-day Friday 1st of January to mid-day Saturday 2nd. About 30 mm of rain is possible and wind gusts to 110 km/hr on the south coast; these will interact around times of high tides near estuaries to worsen local flooding conditions renewed by this rainfall.

TODAY ... Blustery and cold with passing showers that could turn wintry at times especially over higher terrain in Connacht, west Ulster. Highs 5-8 C and temperatures could fall lower at times over higher parts of the north. At least there will be some respite from the steady rainfalls with only 2-5 mm expected in most places. Winds southwest to west 50-80 km/hr will add quite a chill (feeling more like 2 C).

TONIGHT ... Generally dry and cold with local frosts and just a slight risk of a passing wintry shower, lows for most -2 to +2 C. Temperatures will rise slowly after midnight in the south and west as stronger southeast winds develop. Rain by morning in west Munster.

NEW YEARS's DAY ... Cold and windy for most as milder air will only make slow progress into parts of west Munster, highs 6-8 C except about 8-11 C in parts of Cork, Kerry and nearby parts of Clare, Limerick, Waterford. Winds increasing to SE 70-110 km/hr, rainfalls of 10-20 mms will spread slowly into east and north later in the day. Risk of sleet or wet snow on higher terrain and feeling very cold in the raw winds, dress for -2 C if spending time outdoors.

OVERNIGHT 1st-2nd into SATURDAY 2nd ... Windy and generally rather cold although milder air will hang around near the south coast overnight. Temperatures will remain fairly constant near 9 C south, 6 C central and 4 C in the north. Winds will shift directions to northeast then north to northwest as the low moves away, maintaining 50-90 km/hr speeds and adding quite a chill. About 10-20 mm further rainfall (and sleet on hills) can be expected, with a bit of improvement towards the afternoon.

SUNDAY-MONDAY will see the arrival of yet another Atlantic storm, this one bringing in somewhat milder southerly winds, heavy rain at times (20-40 mm) and highs both days around 10 C, although it may begin to turn considerably colder in Ulster on Monday.

TUESDAY looks interesting as colder air from central Europe tries to push into the frontal zone, it may have some effect on east Ulster keeping temperatures there around 3-5 C, otherwise most of the wintry effects will remain in central to northern Britain. Most of Ireland will be windy or at least blustery and temperatures near 7 C, with passing hail or rain showers in a strong westerly flow. That will continue to be the general story of the rest of the week too as deep lows continue to form to the northwest of Ireland and head into the North Sea via Scotland. For the time being, there are no definite signs of really cold wintry conditions away from higher ground in the north, but the mild conveyer belt of the past two months seems to be breaking down in favour of a colder flow that originates in Greenland and modifies slightly over an unusually cold Atlantic, a pattern that can bring heavy snow showers to parts of the west if the modification is slight enough.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and quite cold with highs barely making it to 1 or 2 deg C. We have a clear night and lows near -6 C on the way now. About this time last night (local time) we had an earthquake that is now confirmed to be 4.7 on the Richter scale, so not a biggie (or perhaps this service would be suspended).

M.T. Cranium · 01-01-2016 8:06am

Friday, 1 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for heavy rainfalls in parts of western Ireland next two or three days from today's weather system and another one due in on Sunday. In total, some places in Kerry, Cork, western Galway and Mayo could see 75-100 mm of rain spread out over three or four days. While this may not lead to severe flooding it will slow down any recovery from recent flooding. Amounts in other regions will total about 30-50 mm over the three to four days. Winds will generally not quite reach alert levels.

TODAY ... Windy with periods of rain starting later this morning in Munster, spreading slowly east and north. About 20-30 mm by midnight in some parts of the west, 5-15 mm east. Winds southeast 60-90 km/hr with some higher gusts, feeling rather cold as highs struggle to reach 7-9 C (except 10-11 C in parts of southwest coastal regions).

TONIGHT ... Intermittent rain, becoming heavier in western counties towards morning, as winds haul around to the northwest on Atlantic coasts (remaining east to northeast in eastern counties). Lows 4-7 C. Winds gusting at times to about 70 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Rain gradually ending in west, more showery in east and north, moderate westerly winds backing to southerly late in the day, highs about 9 or 10 C.

SUNDAY ... Periods of rain, windy and somewhat milder at 10 to 12 C, winds southwest 50-80 km/hr. About 10-20 mm rain for most, 20-40 mm in some parts of the west.

MONDAY ... Blustery, squally showers becoming mixed and wintry on higher ground, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr, morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs about 6-8 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy, occasional showers of rain near sea level but sleet or wet snow in some inland locations, continued windy (west to northwest 50-80 km/hr) with lows 2-4 C and highs 5-8 C.

OUTLOOK ... More of this transitional almost wintry weather with occasional wintry showers or temporary coverings of snow on hills, temperatures in the range of 5-8 C daytime, 2-4 C nights. There may be an interval of stronger winds around the 7th or 8th but in general it looks like a very static pattern of cold maritime air masses in a strong westerly flow.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and quite cold with a high barely reaching +1 C, frost remained all day in the shade. It's clear and about -5 C as we approach midnight ... Happy New Year.

M.T. Cranium · 02-01-2016 8:11am

Saturday, 2 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain gradually ending from west to east, and from the start it will be more showery than continuous in most of the east and north, so expect perhaps 10 mm further in south-central and southeast counties, 5-10 mm at most elsewhere, and a relatively dry afternoon with moderate westerly winds until early afternoon, backing to southerly 40-60 km/hr late in the day, highs about 9 or 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain gradually spreading onto south coast again, 5-15 mm can be expected, winds increasing to SE 50-80 km/hr. Staying dry until near sunrise in north and east. Lows 5-7 C.

SUNDAY ... Periods of rain, windy and somewhat milder at 10 to 12 C, winds southwest 50-80 km/hr. About 10-20 mm rain for most, with the rain easing in the south and becoming more confined to the north later in the day.

MONDAY ... Blustery around parts of the west and south coasts, showers becoming mixed and wintry on higher ground, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr, morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs about 7-9 C. Some longer dry intervals may develop but there could also be brief heavy and thundery downpours as the air mass becomes unstable.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy, occasional showers of rain near sea level but sleet or wet snow in some inland locations, northerly winds developing, stronger near east coast (40-60 km/hr), lows 2-4 C and highs 5-8 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Windy with the possibility of gales or even storm force winds near exposed coasts, another significant rainfall event possible, and highs 7-9 C. Too early to speculate on how severe this may be, models keep hinting it will be the classic Atlantic mid-winter wind event.

OUTLOOK ... Change may be slow in this cool maritime flow, but if there is a change it seems most likely to be towards milder and somewhat more settled conditions for a few days as high pressure over the Azores region may eventually spread its influence north. If there is going to be some "real winter" this season, I would look for it in late January or early February the way things are going. Some wintry cold has managed to develop over parts of central and eastern Europe but it does not have much support to move further west, and if it does, it will probably have a hard time getting past the North Sea.

Meanwhile, not a lot going on in North America, temperatures in the east have cooled down to more normal values there, and it remains cold and sunny (clear at night) in the far west. My local weather on Friday was sunny and the high barely reached zero C so that a heavy frost lingered in all shady locations and it actually resembled snow despite nothing having fallen from the sky.

M.T. Cranium · 03-01-2016 8:09am

Sunday, 3 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain will become mostly confined to the north, as partly cloudy conditions spread in from the southwest with moderate southerly winds. About 10 to 15 mm further rainfall is likely in all regions but Munster which will only see a further 2 to 5 mm now. One or two isolated heavy showers could develop after the clearing trend though. Reasonably mild with highs 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Windy at times near the south coast but most other regions will be in a slack wind pattern as low pressure (without much energy this time) drifts towards the west coast. Although skies could clear briefly, expect low cloud and fog to develop as temperatures stabilize near 2 or 3 C. A few showers may move inland near the west coast.

MONDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, breezy near south coast (SW to W 40-60 km/hr) but otherwise the rather slack winds will continue, picking up late in the day near Atlantic coasts. A few isolated heavy and possibly thundery showers will develop, mostly rain but hail is possible and sleet or snow could fall on high terrain. Highs 7-10 C for most, 5-8 C parts of the inland north.

TUESDAY ... Slightly colder in a developing northerly breeze, isolated bands of rain or showers, but also some sunny intervals, winds NE to N 40-60 km/hr in Leinster and east Ulster, NW 30-50 km/hr elsewhere. Rainfalls could reach 5 to 10 mm in a few spots. Morning lows 1-4 C and afternoon highs 6-9 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY ... Becoming windy with periods of rain, possibly as much as 20 to 40 mm by Thursday, winds southerly veering to westerly and in the range of 70-110 km/hr. Temperatures mostly in the 7-10 C range.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat more settled towards the weekend, although still a few showers around, temperatures mostly 6-9 C. Most guidance has a rather ominous looking low approaching the south by Monday 11th, although the worst of this storm so far seems more aimed at southern England and the Channel as well as northern France. While it would get fairly windy in Munster, peak gusts there as shown on these early maps would be about 80 km/hr whereas potential for 150 km/hr or higher is shown over the Channel. We will obviously be keeping a close eye on this development (which basically forms out of a weak system entering the western Altantic around mid-week, there is nothing to see yet upstream). Perhaps if I open my window, it won't happen.

However, as it is clear (with patchy dense fog) and very cold (-7 C) here, I may not take any such action. Saturday was another clear day with a bit of a haze and fog over nearby open water (which is still quite a bit warmer than the land), and the high was only about 2 C.

M.T. Cranium · 04-01-2016 8:28am

Monday, 4 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, breezy near south coast (SW to W 40-60 km/hr) but otherwise the rather slack winds will continue, picking up late in the day from the northwest near Atlantic coasts. A few isolated heavy and possibly thundery showers will develop, mostly rain but hail is possible and sleet or snow could fall on high terrain. Highs 7-10 C for most, 5-8 C parts of the inland north.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few showers, brief clear intervals, moderate northwest winds in most regions but north to northeast after midnight in Leinster, 30-50 km/hr. Rather cold with lows 2-5 C.

TUESDAY ... Slightly colder in a developing northerly breeze, isolated bands of rain or showers, but also some sunny intervals, winds NE to N 40-60 km/hr in Leinster and east Ulster, NW 30-50 km/hr elsewhere. Rainfalls could reach 5 to 10 mm in a few spots. Morning lows 1-4 C and afternoon highs 6-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Clear intervals early in the day for parts of north Leinster and east Ulster, otherwise increasing cloud followed by strong southeast winds reaching 60-100 km/hr by afternoon-evening, and heavy rain, 20-30 mm possible. Winds shifting rapidly to westerly in Atlantic coastal counties during the evening. Morning lows -1 to +4 C (coldest in clear northeast) and afternoon-evening highs 9-12 C mildest near south coast. Some stronger gusts may develop near east and south coasts. Foggy after the rain begins.

THURSDAY ... Rain becoming more showery but some squally hail showers likely in a blustery westerly 60-90 km/hr. Feeling cold as temperatures remain steady 6-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, rather cold with a few showers, moderate west to northwest winds. Lows 2-5 C and highs 7-9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Weekend is likely to be reasonably settled although still with some showers at times, similar temperatures (7-9 C) and moderate winds. Monday remains very uncertain with guidance continually changing details of what may turn out to be a strong storm for some part of western Europe. Not all guidance develops this feature, but models which have it cannot seem to decide on a track, which has ranged from central Ireland to central France in the past few computer runs. What seems a bit more certain is that colder weather could slowly push south behind this storm or any other weaker troughs moving east, and temperatures may be coming down to considerably lower values next week.

Meanwhile, my local weather continued mostly clear and cold but a weak disturbance moving in from the south has spread in cloud and traces of snow this evening. The high on Sunday was about 4 C. Large parts of central and eastern North America continue to have very bland weather with temperatures just about normal for early January.

M.T. Cranium · 05-01-2016 8:37am

Tuesday, 5 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, more frequent by afternoon in western counties. Winds generally northeast to northwest, 30-50 km/hr. The northeast flow is most likely in north Leinster and east Ulster. Bands of moderate rain (possibly sleet on high terrain) will rotate around the slow-moving low which has now reached northwest Wales. The heaviest rainfalls are likely to be in central to south Leinster. Rainfalls could reach 5 to 10 mm in some places but 2-5 mm away from these heavier bands. Afternoon highs 6-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals for east Ulster and Leinster may allow patchy frost to develop around midnight and this could linger past sunrise in a few spots despite increasing cloud. Lows there will be -2 to +3 C. The west and south will likely cloud over early enough to avoid frost or dissipate any that does form as temperatures there rise to about 5-7 C by morning. Light winds except for increasing southeasterly breezes in west Munster by morning.

WEDNESDAY ... Clear intervals early in the day for parts of north Leinster and east Ulster, otherwise increasing cloud followed by strong southeast winds reaching 60-100 km/hr by afternoon-evening, and heavy rain, 20-30 mm possible. Foggy during the rainfall especially over hills (low cloud ceilings expected). Winds shifting rapidly to westerly in Atlantic coastal counties during the evening. Morning lows -1 to +4 C (coldest in clear northeast) and afternoon-evening highs 9-12 C mildest near south coast. Some stronger gusts may develop near east and south coasts. Foggy after the rain begins. I don't generally do aviation forecasts but if you fly, be aware of possible sharp wind shear by late afternoon or evening. There may be some isolated thundershowers along this well-defined trough line.

THURSDAY ... Early morning rain becoming more showery by daybreak but some squally hail showers likely in a blustery westerly 60-90 km/hr. Feeling cold as temperatures remain steady 6-8 C. Improving slowly by afternoon but remaining quite breezy.

FRIDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, rather cold with a few showers, moderate west to northwest winds. Lows 2-5 C and highs 7-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Weekend is likely to be somewhat unsettled although still with some dry intervals at times, but heavier showers that produce some hail are now expected as the remnants of the Thursday frontal system reorganize north of Scotland and rotate back around to revisit Ireland. Showers will be more frequent in western half of country, and similar temperatures to the latter part of the week will continue (7-9 C) with moderate west to northwest winds. Nights may be fairly cold especially with any prolonged clearing, lows could reach -1 C but are most likely to be around 2 or 3 C.

NEXT WEEK ... The chances of a strong storm forming in the Atlantic have diminished according to almost all guidance, and this seems related to the new trend of the rotating weekend low. Meanwhile the disturbance that was earlier seen as the nucleus of a developing storm seems to be moving too slowly to make it to the frontal zone near the Azores in time to break through rapidly swelling high pressure that is responding to big changes to the north and linking up to high pressure near Greenland. This will all conspire to force colder air south on northwest to north winds, and although it does not look quite like a true arctic outbreak yet, parts of Scotland at least will see some snow out of this, and Ireland will be colder than this week by 2 to 4 degrees, with sharper frosts possible. I would only expect some scattered light snowfalls on hills at this point but there is potential for this to upgrade if the ridge to the west locks in. This will also have the effect of shutting down the Atlantic rain machine altogether for a few days at least. A long settled interval does not seem likely, I would expect a rather unsettled interval to develop in about two weeks.

My local weather on Monday included a light snowfall that ended around dawn with just 1-2 cms, slippery side streets for an hour or two, the odd sunny interval later on with mostly cloudy skies and a high near 4 C. We're expecting another weak frontal system to provide 2-4 cms of snow Tuesday morning here, then mostly dry weather for the rest of the week with slowly moderating temperatures. It has turned quite cold in most of the eastern half of North America and this colder trend will be reinforced after some light rain towards the weekend that could turn to snow as arctic air rushes south. The hemispheric patterns are starting to change now and this may result in a considerably different second half of the winter in many regions.

M.T. Cranium · 06-01-2016 8:30am

Wednesday, 6 January, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for locally heavy rainfalls 20-30 mm possible in many counties but most likely in the inland southwest, and strong wind gusts later afternoon and early tonight, to about 110 km/hr in exposed locations near the south coast.

TODAY ... A few sunny intervals this morning, any lingering frost should dissipate by 0930h, then southeast winds picking up gradually with rain moving into Munster around late morning, Connacht and south Leinster by late afternoon, other regions by early evening. When the rain arrives, winds will increase to SE to S 70-100 km/hr in exposed locations, a few gusts to 110 km/hr around Cork and Waterford possibly. Brief renewed flooding is possible by this evening. Highs 6-8 C for most, 8-10 C in Munster.

TONIGHT ... Rain continuing most of the night in Leinster and most of Ulster, ending for a time then resuming as showers elsewhere. Winds will tend to fall off to rather light values in some areas, but could quickly increase from a westerly direction as new low pressure forms somewhere close to Dublin around midnight. That low will move into Scotland by morning and open a path for strong westerly winds that will be cold enough to create mixed wintry showers by morning on higher ground in the northwest at least. Lows will reach about 1-3 C in west, 4-7 C east.

THURSDAY ... Cold and windy with passing showers, some of them wintry especially on higher ground. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr, backing to southwest 40-60 km/hr by evening. Highs about 6-8 C but feeling colder. About 3-5 mm of rain on average.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers but risk of some heavier rain developing later in the day across parts of the south, morning lows 1-3 C and highs 7-10 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy with occasional showers, lows 3-5 C and highs 7-9 C. Guidance is scattered on how strong these winds may become, at least 40-60 km/hr but possibly stronger.

SUNDAY ... Windy and slightly colder with scattered showers that may well become wintry on higher terrain. Lows 2-4 C and highs 5-8 C.

OUTLOOK for NEXT WEEK ... Once again, guidance shows a bit of a spread but in most cases the theme is colder with risks of snow in onshore northwest to northeast winds at times. I think it's too early to be very specific on details given the spread in the guidance, but some models are indicating the potential for much lower temperatures by mid-week (a week from now that is), while others are more subdued. Splitting the difference I would say highs around the 3-7 C range and lows a few degrees below freezing inland to near freezing in large cities and near coasts. That spell would likely not persist very long before becoming more unsettled and slightly less cold by a degree or two. I'm still looking at the period around 20-25 January as being potentially quite volatile and perhaps then we'll be seeing quite an atmospheric battle being joined.

The outlook for BRITAIN is basically similar but today, a separate area of low pressure will bring light rain to southeast England this morning before fading out around mid-day. The rain moving into Ireland won't reach most parts of Britain until tonight and neither would the stronger winds.

My local weather on Tuesday started out with a sloppy mix of snow and sleet, then that turned to occasional rain and temperatures have edged up to about 4 degrees. We're expecting a clearing trend and colder temperatures again. Slightly milder for most eastern regions of North America to the weekend then a plunge into the deep freeze around Sunday and into next week, with mainly lake effect snowfalls in the transition after patchy light rain or wet snow during the frontal passage.

M.T. Cranium · 07-01-2016 8:11am

Thursday, 7 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cold and rather windy (westerly 50-80 km/hr) with passing showers that may be sleety on hills or producing some snow on highest summits. Highs about 7 or 8 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, somewhat less windy, a few showers or (near south coast) intervals of light rain, lows 3-5 C.

FRIDAY ... Mixture of cloud and sunshine, breezy, passing showers. Highs about 7-10 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Partly to mostly cloudy both days, occasional showers or light rain, possibly wintry on higher ground, lows 1-3 C and highs 5-8 C.

NEXT WEEK ... Some uncertainty remains on details but it will be turning a bit colder again, with some areas getting snow, probably mostly on higher ground but at times at lower elevations too. Winds will be generally from northwest or north at 40-60 km/hr but there may be brief intervals with northeast winds that will create temporary wintry shower potential near the east coast. Highs will be 3 to 6 C for most, and lows -3 to +1 C. Different models have a variety of details. For example, the European model wants to toy with that earlier theme of a strong storm from the central Atlantic, but this time it arrives later in the week and runs into the cold air in place. On the guidance provided, this would be a sleety mix of cold rain and snow for parts of Ireland and a strong wind event in southern England with a driving cold rain turning to snow on hills there. But I am not very convinced that this storm will actually develop as shown, other models are holding it back around the Azores unable to break through blocking high pressure. The main point of mentioning it is in case you hear stories of powerful winter storms, it would not take much imagination to see this storm as a wintry blizzard given the marginal guidance. But anyway, what's probably more likely is that we'll have various short-duration events to track all week, and eventually quite a few parts of Ireland could see at least temporary snow cover.

My local weather on Wednesday became partly sunny and it was just a bit milder at about 6 C. These clearing skies have led to dense fog this evening with roughly 200 metres visibility as we approach midnight here.

I may update this forecast in the afternoon or early evening if I find the mid-day model runs interesting. One thing to keep in mind here, the guidance is so scattered for next week, and there are so many different people with different philosophies looking at it all, that you are bound to hear all sorts of different possible scenarios. The most likely one is whatever seems to be near the middle of the spectrum.

M.T. Cranium · 08-01-2016 8:26am

Friday, 8 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, a few showers and moderate southerly winds, highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers or periods of light rain, some clear intervals mainly in north, cold. Lows 2-4 C. Some icy patches on higher routes, and some sleet on hills.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers that may be sleety on hills, highs 7-9 C near sea level but 5-7 C inland on hills. Moderate southwest winds.

SUNDAY ... Morning showers or sleet, then partly to mostly cloudy, wintry showers developing, cold, with moderate to strong westerly winds, chance of some wet snow towards evening on hills in north. Lows 1-3 C and highs 6-8 C.

MONDAY ... Windy and cold with passing wintry showers, rain or hail more prevalent at sea level but a good chance of a temporary snow covering on higher ground, winds becoming northwest 50-80 km/hr adding chill to temperatures that will be steady in the 4-6 C range at best.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY are also looking rather cold with occasional showers and bright spells with cold west to northwest winds, highs near 6 C and morning lows in the range of -2 to +3 C.

OUTLOOK is quite uncertain, as models want to bring a distant storm through the Azores then towards Ireland or southern Britain by about Friday. This may influence forecasts more than the weather itself if you see what I'm saying ... frankly this particular low has been messing with the models for quite a few days, a while ago it was supposed to be arriving on Monday, so anything based on where it's supposed to be in eight days is a bit like one of those guaranteed lottery winning schemes (to me, but caveat emptor). What I feel is more likely is that further weak systems will continue to develop to the west, and one might drag some of the energy of this distant storm into France some time around the end of next week. This will keep the temperature profile on the marginal side for snow but there will be some chance of a rain-snow mixture of some kind when this develops. After the end of next week I am expecting a more active and possibly stormy interval where anything goes now that the Atlantic is not as strong as it was in December, apparently, and a Greenland high wants to join in the battle. While some snow could fall next week, I continue to think the end of this month and early February are the more likely time for a real shot of wintry weather.

Meanwhile, the "distant storm" we're talking about has moved off the southeast coast of the U.S., another sluggish system behind that one is bringing rain to the southeast states and will drag in a weak arctic front over the weekend, eventually making a stronger front that brings in very cold air for eastern North America next week. The west has been slowly warming, although a cold rain was falling much of Thursday in parts of southern California and Arizona with snow on mountains there. My local weather on Thursday was very foggy to start and it stayed misty all day although visibility improved to about a half mile from the morning 50 to 100 metres, highs were about 5 C.

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