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M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 9 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


Astronomy note: New moon occurs early Sunday at 1:32 a.m., at which time it will be (like the Sun) below the horizon. There is no eclipse in the Pacific region where the moon would be invisible in the Sun's glare but located about 3 degrees above it as seen from locations near Japan or the Philippines. The crescent of the moon returns to evening skies this coming week, you might first spot it around Tuesday.

TODAY ... Blustery showers or intervals of rain, sleet on hills, in a band moving north this morning, followed by partial clearing, then variable cloud, showers that may be sleety on hills, highs 7-9 C near sea level but 5-7 C inland on hills. Moderate southwest winds 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Another interval of cold rain or sleet, possibly some snow on hills, once again spreading north followed by partial clearing. Lows 1-3 C.

SUNDAY ... Morning showers or sleet, then partly to mostly cloudy, wintry showers developing, cold, with moderate to strong westerly winds, chance of some wet snow towards evening on hills in north. Lows 1-3 C and highs 6-8 C.

MONDAY ... Windy and cold with passing wintry showers, rain or hail more prevalent at sea level but a good chance of a temporary snow covering on higher ground, winds slack for part of the day over Leinster and Ulster under the centre of low pressure but becoming northwest 50-80 km/hr in western and southern coastal counties, adding chill to temperatures that will be steady in the 4-6 C range at best.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY are also looking rather cold with occasional showers, some wintry especially on hills, and bright spells with cold west to northwest winds, highs 3 to 6 C and morning lows in the range of -3 to +2 C.

THURSDAY may bring an interval of sleet or snow, or a mix of cold rain near sea level and sleet/snow inland on hills, depending on how things evolve ... most of the guidance now shows part of that distant Atlantic low discussed yesterday breaking away Tuesday and heading into France or southern England by Thursday, and that would interact with another weak system moving east in the polar frontal zone to produce a wintry mixture. Whether this is heavy or just a nuisance amount of sleet and snow remains to be seen but temperatures will likely be in the 1-3 C range for most, although there's quite a range of possible outcomes still.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Guidance also suggests that the main portion of the distant Azores low will then head north and try to find a milder route to Ireland but higher pressure wedged in between the two portions will stick around for much of Friday and Saturday before relenting a bit on Sunday. This would lead to a cold, dry spell at the end of the week with a gradual milder trend although quite gradual so that sharp frosts of -6 to -3 C might persist to Sunday with highs gaining a degree or two each day through the 5-9 C range. There could be a fair amount of sunshine but some cloud is likely in western regions from the distant lows well off to the west. This rather bland outcome would likely be followed by about a week of milder weather with occasional light rain and gusty south to southwest winds, it may sound like a return to December weather but it doesn't look that extreme -- and a second cold spell might then follow but not right away, probably after the 24th.

The situation for BRITAIN is quite similar overall but towards the end of the week there could be a sharper bite to the cold especially if the Thursday weather systems manage to create any snow cover, as the core of the cold air will sit over Britain around Friday morning.

In the eastern U.S., the weekend will be rather mild with a spell of rain developing. In the Midwest, rain will turn to snow and it will become much colder on Sunday with biting northwest winds and lake effect snow squalls. Further west it will be dry and cold, while on the west coast, it will be mild and dry for most. That's how my local weather turned out on Friday, with hazy sun by afternoon and a pleasant high of 8 C. The snow level on nearby mountains remains near 400 metres for the time being. I got some pictures from friends travelling in the southwestern states and down there, the snow line is at about 1200 metres on most hills with sunshine and 15 C in lower elevations.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 10 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cold and rather windy, some intervals of sleety rain in a few areas this morning but fairly widespread dry, partly cloudy conditions with blustery southwest winds at times. Highs will reach 6 to 8 C at sea level and 4 to 6 C inland at elevations above 100-150 metres. Some snow could fall on higher slopes in any passing showers.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals, very cold, occasional brief showers of sleet or cold rain, lows 1-3 C for most but possibly -2 C in some inland areas, a few icy patches may develop especially on less traveled routes.

MONDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine, cold with some scattered outbreaks of sleet, hail or cold rain, snow on hills especially widespread in north. Winds will decrease for many locations because of a slack gradient around low pressure crossing the central portions of the country but Atlantic coasts will see afternoon and evening stronger wind gusts developing from the northwest. Highs 5-7 C at best.

TUESDAY ... Very cold and windy, as northwest winds increase to 60-100 km/hr adding quite a chill as temperatures struggle to reach 5 C after morning lows generally close to freezing (-3 C is possible in a few locations). It will feel more like -5 C where exposed to the wind. Wintry showers are likely to become rather frequent and 2-5 cm of snow will fall on some higher parts of Connacht and Ulster as well as the higher peaks elsewhere. Some transient snow could come and go at lower elevations.

WEDNESDAY ... Not as windy but continued quite cold, some intervals of cold rain in a few southern counties, becoming sleety on hills, mixed wintry showers further north. While not as calm as Monday in most cases, the stronger winds will abate to 40-60 km/hr so it will feel a bit milder despite being in the same general range of -3 to +5 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are now looking even colder with very sharp frosts, lows -6 to -3 C, and highs about 3 to 6 C, in a moderate northerly flow but nights may produce rather calm conditions away from coasts. Some sunshine is likely both days with just a few isolated wintry showers, although we'll be watching for details to evolve in case of sea effect wintry showers.

FURTHER OUTLOOK is starting to look more settled, the high developing near the end of the week may be able to hold back the Atlantic lows (the first portion of the Azores disturbance is now expected to be quite weak mid-week and more of an issue for France than anywhere north of Brittany). The highs on the weekend and into early next week could remain a bit below normal values in the 5-8 C range and frosts could continue. Longer term, we have a lot of uncertainty due to vastly different possible outcomes once this high either weakens or reconsolidates with any other more distant highs in Greenland or eastern Europe. There is some potential for stormy weather to develop if briefly, and also some potential for severe cold to develop. So it's wait and see on which signal wins out.

The general picture in BRITAIN will be similar to the forecast above but there could be even colder nights late next week over any snow cover that develops from streamers off the Irish Sea or North Sea (in Wales, Scotland and northern England mostly).

The eastern U.S. has one more day of mild weather before sharply colder weather arrives tonight. This is already digging in over the Great Lakes region where some locally heavy snow squalls are developing. The mild air has temperatures above 10 C but the colder air is close to -10 C so there's quite a contrast, and this could set off some unseasonable thunderstorms in New York and Boston.

My local weather on Saturday was very pleasant for this time of year, it was clear and sunny, and not overly cold even in the morning despite a slight frost, highs then managed to reach 7 or 8 C with light winds.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 11 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for icy road conditions in some parts of the inland south and a few other locations this morning -- while the frost in those areas may fade before mid-day, the risk will then shift to the aftermath of any hail or snow showers that develop, mainly in western counties at elevations of 100m.

TODAY ... Some scattered morning frost and isolated fog patches, then a mixture of cloud and sunshine, cold with some scattered outbreaks of sleet, hail or cold rain, snow on hills especially widespread in north. Winds will decrease for many locations until this afternoon, because of a slack gradient around low pressure crossing the central portions of the country but Atlantic coasts will see stronger wind gusts developing from the northwest this morning and this trend will spread further east this afternoon as winds increase to 40-70 km/hr. Highs will only reach 4-7 C.

TONIGHT ... Windy and very cold with passing wintry showers that may expand into intervals of sleet or snow on hills in north and west. Winds increasing to northwest 60-100 km/hr especially in exposed parts of north and west. Lows zero to 2 C for most but could dip below freezing in a few valleys well inland.

TUESDAY ... Very cold and windy, as northwest winds increase to 60-100 km/hr adding quite a chill as temperatures struggle to reach 5 C after morning lows generally close to freezing (-3 C is possible in a few locations). It will feel more like -5 C where exposed to the wind. Wintry showers are likely to become rather frequent and 2-5 cm of snow will fall on some higher parts of Connacht and Ulster as well as the higher peaks elsewhere. Some transient snow could come and go at lower elevations.

WEDNESDAY ... Not as windy but continued quite cold, some intervals of cold rain in a few southern counties, becoming sleety on hills, mixed wintry showers further north. While not as calm as Monday in most cases, the stronger winds will abate to 40-60 km/hr so it will feel a bit milder despite being in the same general range of -3 to +5 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will become even colder especially at night with very sharp frosts, lows -6 to -3 C, and highs about 3 to 6 C, in a moderate northerly flow but nights may produce rather calm conditions away from coasts. Some sunshine is likely both days with just a few isolated wintry showers, although we'll be watching for details to evolve in case of sea effect wintry showers. A few parts of Ulster and north Connacht could see more significant snowfalls.

OUTLOOK for NEXT WEEKEND is for a continuation of the cold, dry weather as high pressure crests near or over Ireland while slowly sinking further south. This will produce overnight lows of -7 to -4 C except in a few more temperate coastal locations, and highs will struggle to get much above freezing, possibly into the 2 to 5 C range. If any snow cover persists those areas could remain at or below freezing all day. This cold spell will fade out next week but guidance is somewhat scattered on the timing. Some models want to resume a milder Atlantic flow with occasional rain as early as Monday but others have a very slow transition to milder southwest winds that could take much of the week.

See previous day(s) for comments on Britain which remain valid today. My local weather on Sunday was once again sunny with slight morning frost and an afternoon high of about 7 C. The east coast, meanwhile, enjoyed the last mild day for a while (near 18 C in places) but the colder air has now reached the larger cities after dropping temperatures about 10-15 degrees over the Great Lakes region earlier. Heavy snow squalls have developed wherever northwest winds cross the open Great Lakes (and there is no ice on any of them after such a mild December as they had). The week is expected to continue cold with occasional snow in the east, and mild with spells of light rain in the west.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 12 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Very cold and windy, as northwest winds increase to 60-100 km/hr adding quite a chill as temperatures remain fairly steady in the 4-6 C range (could reach 8 C south coast) and it will feel more like -5 C where exposed to the wind. Wintry showers are likely to become rather frequent and 2-5 cm of snow will fall on some higher parts of Connacht and Ulster as well as the higher peaks elsewhere. Some transient snow could come and go at lower elevations. The frequency of showers will range from about half of the time in parts of the north to possibly less than two hours out of the day in the south, and sunny intervals will be a little more frequent in the south too. Expect to see snowfall accumulations on hills in all parts of the country and occasionally at pass levels on various highways.

TONIGHT ... Continued windy although some moderation towards morning, mixed wintry showers continuing, lows -2 to +3 C. Some icy stretches may be encountered on higher routes.

WEDNESDAY ... Not as windy but continued quite cold, some intervals of cold rain in a few southern counties, becoming sleety on hills, mixed wintry showers further north. While not as calm as Monday in most cases, the stronger winds will abate to 40-60 km/hr so it will feel a bit milder despite highs being in the same general range of 4 to 6 C.

THURSDAY will become windy again (NW to N 50-80 km/hr) with mixed wintry showers and some risk of 3-5 cm snowfalls in parts of Ulster and Connacht, especially on higher terrain. Less frequent showers and some afternoon sunshine in parts of the south and east. Morning lows -2 to +3 C and highs about 5 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will become even colder especially at night with very sharp frosts, lows -6 to -3 C, and highs about 3 to 6 C, in a moderate northerly flow but nights may produce rather calm conditions away from coasts. Some sunshine is likely both days with just a few isolated wintry showers, although we'll be watching for details to evolve in case of sea effect wintry showers. A few parts of Ulster and north Connacht could see more significant snowfalls on Friday, but most places will be dry on Saturday under the core of high pressure.

SUNDAY will become overcast after a cold, clear start, and there could be light rain on the west coast by evening in a developing southerly flow. Lows will be in the range of -2 to +4 C and then highs about 5 to 7 C east, 8 to 10 C west.

OUTLOOK for NEXT WEEK is milder with occasional rain and moderate south to southwest winds. It may become more stormy towards the end of that week.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with a few periods of rain and a high near 5 C. Further east, a weak snowfall producing wave has developed near Chicago and will bring 2-5 cm snowfalls to most of the lower Great Lakes region and possibly the first snowflakes of the season to parts of the east coast (although Boston had some already). Temperatures will remain very cold in the east all week.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 13 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and cold with widespread showers, mainly rain near sea level, sleet or wet snow on higher slopes, with a moderate southwest wind of 40-60 km/hr adding chill, highs generally 5-7 C (could reach 9 C in some coastal parts of west Munster). Average rainfalls or equivalent about 3-5 mm.

TONIGHT ... Showers may turn to snow on higher portions of north Connacht, west Munster and Ulster. Some places could have accumulations of 3-5 cm. Other regions will have less frequent showers with more of a mix of rain, sleet or snow in those. Temporary covering of 1-2 cm wet snow is possible. Lows will be generally close to freezing. Watch for icy sections on some higher routes in the north and also in the southwest.

THURSDAY ... Windy and cold with passing wintry showers. Some sunny intervals south and east. Highs 4-7 C. Winds northwest 50-70 km/hr making it feel closer to -2 C.

FRIDAY ... Severe frosts likely, a mixture of cloud and sunshine with just a slight chance of wintry showers near northern coasts. Lows -5 to -1 C, highs reaching only 3 to 6 C.

SATURDAY ... An area of rain may brush some parts of the west coast and it could turn to sleet or wet snow inland mainly in the western half of the country but also in parts of the inland southeast. Dry and cold for much of Leinster and Ulster. It may turn slightly milder in west Munster (7-9 C) while staying quite cold elsewhere (lows -3 to +2 C and highs 4-7 C).

SUNDAY ... Two possible outcomes are suggested, the frontal boundary may attempt to remain close to south and west coastal regions with more mixed precipitation, or the arctic portion of the high pressure complex may push that front back to the south resulting in widespread clearing and some sunshine. The outcome is partly dependent on what happens with the distant Atlantic subtropical low that may be making a northward move through the Azores on Friday, so where it decides to go may affect the details of how long the cold high remains in place. Different guidance shows us different scenarios especially for Monday to Wednesday (see below).

OUTLOOK for NEXT WEEK ... The most likely outcome is a period of generally cold, dry weather with further attempts by the milder Atlantic air to push into parts of the west and south, so that occasional coastal rain and inland sleet or wet snow could redevelop from time to time. However, details are very uncertain. Some parts of the country, notably Leinster and east Ulster, might see considerable dry and frosty weather until about Thursday. It will probably turn a bit milder at some point late in the week, but I have the hunch that quite a strong disturbance will form somewhere near Donegal Bay around the end of next week and there could be increasing signs of a further cold outbreak beyond that (so far models are not catching much of this but as it is two weeks away, that's not surprising to me).

The general picture for BRITAIN, while similar, is now expected to remain quite cold well into next week -- the lurking milder Atlantic air will have enough trouble reaching Ireland to have much strength left for a push into any part of Britain except possibly Cornwall. There will also be quite a strong frontal zone across northern and central France. A few outbreaks of hill snow are likely from Thursday to Saturday, then frontal snow could develop on Sunday in parts of the southwest.

In NORTH AMERICA, the second of two snowfall events in the east turned out to be quite potent, thanks in part to the unusually warm Great Lakes after the very mild December (their temperatures are more typical of mid-December or even late November right now). This beefed up the snow squalls but that system is now fading and a dry cold will follow. Bitterly cold air is moving south to reinforce the colder regime with temperatures as low as -30 C in central Canada. However, it is turning milder on the west coast. Our local weather on Tuesday was mild with rain, and highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 14 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for localized snowfalls of 3 to 6 cms mainly this afternoon and evening in west Ulster and north Connacht. Also ALERT for widespread icy roads developing, most problematic late Thursday to mid-day Saturday. Major well-travelled routes will probably remain fairly good, but less travelled secondary roads will tend to become quite icy especially where snow is packed down by any traffic.

TODAY ... Windy and cold with some sunny intervals for many this morning, mixed wintry showers will tend to be confined to a few areas near the Atlantic coast and in east Ulster. By this afternoon these will begin to spread further south and east, and the chance for accumulating snow will probably reach its greatest by this evening. Some parts of Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim and nearby parts of other counties could see 3-6 cms of snow by midnight (with onset generally mid-afternoon). Elsewhere, snow would probably be isolated and confined to higher north-facing slopes as winds will be NNW 40-70 km/hr. The wintry showers could be blustery at times with hail and thunder possible too, as temperatures begin to fall aloft. That will tend to keep temperatures rather steady from mid-morning to late afternoon, 2 to 5 C for most, 5 to 8 C possible near south coast. Feeling like -2 C or thereabouts in the wind.

TONIGHT ... Some further snow in north Connacht and Ulster, isolated snow showers elsewhere but large areas of clear skies will develop in moderate northwest winds. Lows -2 to +2 C but feeling more like -5 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, isolated wintry showers, still some chance of a slight accumulation in parts of the north and northwest. Northwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr will continue to add chill. Frost and ice may remain present in shaded areas most of the day as highs only reach 1 to 4 C. Icy roads becoming widespread late afternoon and evening.

SATURDAY ... Sharp to severe frost in the morning, sunny despite increasing higher cloud during the day. Winds light as the centre of high pressure drifts slowly east across Ireland. Icy roads widespread especially less travelled routes. Lows -6 to -3 C and highs 1 to 5 C. The latest guidance downplays any precipitation but it could return to forecasts as rain will be not very far off the west coast at times (if it tried to spread inland it could turn to sleet or snow, but this is not currently being shown on most guidance).

SUNDAY ... The cold may linger in parts of Leinster and east Ulster with lows once again reaching -5 C but cloud spreading in during Saturday night will result in temperatures rising after an evening low of about -1 C in some areas of the south and west. Stronger winds will rapidly develop, east to southeast at 50-80 km/hr in exposed parts of west Munster. Rain may follow, with sleet on hills for a while before temperatures warm up. Highs will be as cold as 2 or 3 C in the northeast, and as high as 10 C in Kerry. It will likely be about 4 C in Dublin, 7 C in Cork and Waterford, and 6 C in Galway.

MONDAY ... Foggy or misty with occasional light rain, milder for most although cold air could be trapped in a few valleys especially towards east Ulster. Highs will reach about 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Milder air will probably manage to hold the fort over Ireland but whereas Britain would have similar weather up to Sunday, the cold air will hang on there for several more days and at some point mid to late week it could try to push back to the west. This frontal boundary will become moister by Monday and Tuesday, probably too far east for snow to develop in Ireland although that chance still exists, but with widespread snow in Scotland, northern and central England, and parts of Wales.

Subtropical storm "Alex" was designated earlier, located southwest of the Azores and closing in on those islands late tonight or Friday. It may be changed to a tropical storm (the differences are technical having to do with conditions near the centre) and then an extra-tropical strong low moving north. It will likely curve northwest away from Ireland and towards Greenland and then Labrador, rapidly becoming absorbed by another low coming out of eastern North America as it begins to curve back around to the south. However, this could all change to some other scenario, although at this point there is a lot more agreement among different models than there was a few days ago.

The eastern half of North America continues very cold with snow pushing east, followed by clearing but another weak "clipper" system is following, with the risk of further snow squalls in the Great Lakes region. That is the origin of the low that will eventually push warm fronts through Ireland towards Britain next week. Further west it is quite mild, we had a bit of light rain and partial clearing in the afternoon here, and a high near 11 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 15 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly sunny, cold and breezy to start the day, a few wintry showers in parts of the north and west. These will probably not be as widespread as yesterday and may tend to die out during the afternoon, while a separate area of rain moves southeast across parts of west Munster. About 3-7 mm of rain will fall in a few parts of the southwest, and some sleet or snow could develop on higher terrain in its path as well as during the evening as it departs. Highs today 3 to 6 C, except 8-10 C in coastal Kerry.

TONIGHT ... Clearing skies will allow temperatures to fall further to around -6 to -3 degrees inland, -3 to +1 C in some more temperate spots on the south coast. Be alert for icy roads and some very poor driving conditions that may be encountered here or there depending on fluctuating temperatures and cloud cover.

SATURDAY ... Sharp to severe frost in the morning, sunny intervals despite increasing higher cloud during the day. However, lower cloud layers will spread into some western and northern coastal districts with drizzle or wet snow grains possible, not much accumulation is expected. Winds light as the centre of high pressure drifts slowly east across Ireland, but a light southerly flow will develop in western counties by afternoon. Icy roads widespread especially less travelled routes. Lows -6 to -3 C and highs 1 to 5 C with coldest values in Ulster and north Leinster.

SUNDAY ... The cold may linger in parts of Leinster and east Ulster with lows once again reaching -5 C but cloud spreading in during Saturday night will result in temperatures rising after an evening low of about -1 C in some areas of the south and west. Stronger winds will rapidly develop, east to southeast at 50-80 km/hr in exposed parts of west Munster. Rain may follow by afternoon in the southwest, with sleet on hills for a while before temperatures warm up. Highs will be as cold as 2 or 3 C in the northeast, and as high as 10 C in Kerry. It will likely be about 4 C in Dublin, 7 C in Cork and Waterford, and 6 C in Galway. Although milder on the thermometer, those winds will actually drop the apparent temperature (or wind chill) so that, except for possibly Kerry, it won't feel very mild.

MONDAY ... Foggy or misty with occasional light rain, milder for most although cold air could be trapped in a few valleys especially towards east Ulster. Lows 2 to 4 C and highs will reach about 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY ... The milder air will find its progress blocked to some extent by a reinforcement of cold high pressure edging southward from Iceland towards Scotland and Ulster. This may have only a slight effect on temperatures in most of Ireland while dropping values back several degrees in east Ulster and most of Britain. So, expect cloud, some light rain or sleet on hills, possibly some fog or mist, and highs 5-8 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Milder in stages and possibly becoming very windy at times, with occasional bursts of heavier rain, and highs 8-11 C towards the end of the week. There are some indications of a brief wintry interruption around Friday or Saturday (22nd) before a rather volatile pattern develops. I think we may get into another interval of watching very cold air masses massing to the north and speculating about when or if they break through once again.

For BRITAIN, generally slightly colder throughout the forecast period with higher risk of snow during the frontal boundary stall situation early next week.

Meanwhile, "Alex" became a hurricane yesterday and is bearing down on the Azores with winds of 100-140 km/hr, expected to peak around 0900h. The track is now due north and will become north-northwest later today and tonight. This unusual storm will quickly lose tropical characteristics and will merge with low pressure near Newfoundland over the late stages of this weekend. That combined low will then head northeast towards Iceland. The only effects on Ireland will be to energize the fronts moving in on Sunday but then removing most of that energy by Monday which is complicating the forecast challenge for next week. Unless the models are dead wrong, there is no chance of Alex swerving off course towards Ireland. It is the first hurricane to exist in the North Atlantic in January since 1955 and the first to form there since 1938 (the 1955 storm formed on 30 December 1954). There was an un-named tropical storm in January 1978. All of these other storms were westward-moving storms at lower latitudes than Alex has now reached. There was also Tropical Storm Zeta at the tail end of the 2005 season which persisted into January.

My local weather on Thursday was mild and partly cloudy with highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 16 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for icy road conditions in some inland counties, it may be 1030h or later before all of this ice clears, with least travelled routes probably the last to lose their surface ice -- be aware of the black ice potential as temperatures were actually colder several hours ago in some places where cloud has increased.


TODAY ... Becoming mostly cloudy, any local ice or fog should dissipate gradually and it will become slightly milder with light winds, drizzly light rain possible around north coast Ulster, later moving southeast to cover parts of east Ulster. Highs 4 to 7 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, milder with moderate southeast winds developing, lows -1 to +4 C and perhaps a bit higher in west Munster.

SUNDAY ... Overcast, some fog and light rain developing in southwest by mid-day, spreading slowly north and east by evening. Heavier rain may develop by evening. Highs 6-8 C for most, 8-11 C west Munster. Winds will increase to southeast 50-70 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Rain ending (15-25 mm totals mostly overnight) with some lingering drizzle and fog, partial clearing in west, lows 2-5 C and highs 7-9 C.

TUESDAY ... Overcast, foggy or misty in some regions, light rain or drizzle at times, lows 3-6 C and highs 6-9 C but possibly 10-12 C south coast.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Mild, occasionally wet and windy, later in the week. At this point any chance of colder air pushing back to the west look fairly limited to perhaps northeast England and eastern Scotland around Tuesday, so this would not reach any part of Ireland, but models may continue to adjust on this detail.

My local weather on Friday was overcast and mild with a few intervals of very light rain, highs near 9 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 17 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with light rain developing in the south and west, slowly spreading further north and east by afternoon. Rain becoming heavier late in the day. Winds increasing to southeast 50-70 km/hr.Highs 7-9 C for most and 9-11 C near south coast.

TONIGHT ... Heavier rain moving into the east while tapering off to drizzle in the west. Total rainfalls 15-25 mm and lows 4-7 C. Foggy especially over higher terrain.

OUTLOOK ... I am just posting a brief update from a remote location so will just say that I have checked the model runs and continue to see mostly mild and occasionally wet weather over the next week, highs usually in the 8-10 C range. There are mixed signals for the period starting next weekend, it may eventually turn colder again before the end of this month.

My local weather about 100 kms east of my usual location is foggy and mild with light rain and 6 deg C.

I will likely miss one day of forecasts (Monday) if anyone wishes to have a go, then I hope to be back on Tuesday.

200motels

18 January 2016

Today
Cloudy with rain at times today with some heavy bursts in the south, temps ranging from 6C to 9 C.

Tonight

Cool enough tonight with further rain in the south and west, temps 1C to a high of 5C with patchy frost in places where it is dry.


Outlook

A fairly mixed bag for the rest of the week with temps normal or a little below, tomorrow cloudy at first but dryer later temps 6C to 10C in light south easterly wind.
Wednesday and Thursday dry and bright in most places except along the west coast where patchy rain will occur, some patchy frost at night, becoming windy on Thursday night and wet on Friday but also becoming very mild. The weekend looks at the moment mild with some rain at times but dry brighter periods also. Windy at times but frosts unlikely. Further on it's hard to predict but looking at the latest model runs it should stay mild with rain at times with no serious cold on the horizon.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 19 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Overcast with mist and some patchy drizzle, possibly leading to a steady light rain near the south coast, but most other locations relatively dry with some chance of brighter intervals developing mid-day and afternoon. Somewhat on the cool side with highs 5 to 8 C.

TONIGHT ... Mist, drizzle and low cloud may begin to break up in some inland locations, lows -1 to +3 C, patchy ice and frost especially in central counties.

WEDNESDAY ... Overcast, patchy drizzle but mostly dry with highs 6 to 9 C.

THURSDAY ... Becoming windy and milder, periods of rain (10-20 mm) and highs near 11 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, mild, showers. Highs near 10 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Continued mild, further rainfalls but also some dry intervals, highs near 10 C.

NEXT WEEK ... Briefly colder around Monday (5-8 C) then milder again.

Over in BRITAIN, this transitional period may be somewhat colder but the chances of snow seem to be fairly low in general. Eventually the milder air reaches Britain too.

The biggest weather news now seems to be the potential for a very heavy snowstorm in the eastern United States around Friday and Saturday. There is speculation about 50 to 75 cm amounts for Washington DC and Baltimore, and 25 to 50 cm further north in New York and Boston. For New England the storm would last into Sunday. Up until this event, it will be very cold and dry in most parts of the eastern and central U.S., mild and unsettled in the west. My local weather on Monday was mostly cloudy with just brief light showers, and a mild high near 10 C.

Thanks to 200motels for maintaining the forecasts yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 20 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... A cold but bright start to the day for much of Leinster, somewhat more cloud and mist elsewhere, but milder as a result ... eventually with southerly winds mixing the air, everyone should end up around 8-10 C with rain developing by late afternoon or evening in parts of the south and west.

TONIGHT ... Mild, windy, southerlies 50-80 km/hr, lows 5-8 C (possibly 2-5 C in a few parts of north Leinster and east Ulster).

THURSDAY ... Mild and windy with 10-20 mm rainfalls, highs 9-12 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, still a few showers, highs 8-11 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Mild, breezy, highs near 10 C, some rain at times.

NEXT WEEK ... The mild interval will slowly fade as higher pressure builds over the south. This will eventually lead to colder temperatures especially in the inland southern and central counties at night, where frosts may become more frequent again. Highs will range from near 8 C north to 5 C inland south during this more settled spell and there could be some dense fog or even ice fog in places.

Over in BRITAIN, today will be considerably colder in southern England where clear skies have allowed temperatures to drop to about -6 C in many areas. Recovery will be rather slow and erratic in light winds, some persistent freezing fog may result. Further north it will be more similar to the conditions expected in Ireland. This colder tendency will probably begin to fade out of the picture once winds increase later tomorrow, then a mild spell will also develop there. However, once the more settled and colder conditions materialize next week, that could turn into a very icy scenario in parts of southern England. Scotland will remain milder in more of a moderate southwesterly flow.

In the eastern U.S., where there has been virtually no winter until this past week, models are in general agreement about a weekend snowstorm that could drop as much as 50-75 cms in Washington DC, 35 to 50 in Philadelphia, and 20 to 30 cms in New York City and if not right in Boston, just to the south of them. Winds will be very strong at times, in fact blizzard warnings may be required. Airport closures are likely from Friday night to about Sunday evening for some of the larger airports. This storm will miss the Great Lakes and Midwest where it will remain cold and dry apart from some local snow squalls in east winds. The storm will develop out of the remnants of a rather weak Pacific system moving inland tonight (local time) and bringing rain to lower elevations, snow to mountains, in all of the western states. My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy and mild with a high of 9 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 21 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Breezy and mild with a few intervals of rain but also some brighter intervals, almost spring-like for some ... highs 10 to 13 C.

TONIGHT ... Periods of rain becoming heavier at times, chance of thunder, quite windy (SW 50-80 km/hr) and mild, lows 7 to 9 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy with a few showers, temperatures steady 8 to 11 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy and mild, occasional rain. Highs 9 to 12 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will become windy with occasional bursts of heavier rain (about 20-30 mm in total) and highs each day near 10 C, wind gusts could exceed 100 km/hr especially later Monday, from the southwest.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Colder on Tuesday, although still above freezing, then quite variable for several days. There are still indications of more frequent frosty nights in the inland south due to higher pressure developing over the south. There will be less change observed in the north which will still have the influence of moderate southwest to west winds most of the time.

The cold spell that has hit parts of southern England continues this morning, anyone travelling to London can expect quite a sharp frost there, but the temperatures are slowly moderating further west, and Scotland is more or less into the same weather regime as Ireland now. Wales will soon shake off the remnants of the cold too. But a modified cold could return later next week in parts of Britain.

The east coast of the U.S. is bracing for the arrival of the developing winter storm, which right now is a rather weak system over Kansas, Oklahoma and northern Texas. Even by tonight (when into Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee) the storm will be mostly rain or sleet and relatively weak. But it appears set to explode into a blizzard over West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland and Delaware as well as southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania and of course Washington D.C. on Friday night, then lasting all day Saturday and into part of Sunday, with 30 to 50 cm snowfalls widespread and 60 or 70 cms possible in a few places. This storm will be much less intense for New York City which could get 15 to 25 cms, and Boston may be right on the edge with snowfalls confined to southeastern Massachusetts.

The weather is a lot milder in the western parts of North America, my local weather on Wednesday was overcast with a high near 11 C, and rain has spread in during the evening hours.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 22 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Windy with partial clearing but a few squally showers in parts of the north and northwest mainly, winds veering to southwest 60-100 km/hr, and temperatures steady 11-13 C for the morning but falling to 7-10 C this afternoon when it may start to feel noticeably colder.

TONIGHT ... Windy, cool before midnight but then turning milder as winds back into the south, remaining strong (60-90 km/hr), temperatures in east and south steady 4-7 C, in west and north rising slowly to 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy and mild with outbreaks of showery rain, about 10 mm on average, highs near 11 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy to windy and very mild, occasional light rain, 5-10 mm for most, heavier rain by the overnight hours though. Morning lows 5-7 C and afternoon highs 11-13 C.

MONDAY ... Very windy and turning colder around late morning west, afternoon east. Temperatures steady near 10 or 11 C then falling to 5 C. Some rain at times during the frontal passage.

TUESDAY ... Breezy and rather cold at first, then very windy and milder again, temperatures rising back towards 12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Very windy, squally showers. Winds from southwest to west at about 70 to 120 km/hr. Highs near 9 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A colder interval will gradually develop, as the strong westerly flow becomes somewhat more northwesterly, and also we see signs of possible volatility in the arctic regions becoming a factor as we approach February despite some guidance sticking to the mild southwesterly theme, I am expecting a wide range of model output in the next few days until the atmosphere fully integrates the results of the massive storm in the eastern United States.

Meanwhile, BRITAIN is almost out of the recent cold regime now and will experience more or less the same sequence of weather events in this fast-moving Atlantic-dominated period ahead.

The big weather news is of course the developing storm in the southeastern U.S. which should begin to move up the Carolina coasts by afternoon, setting off a blizzard over the "Mid-Atlantic" region which includes the Virginias, Maryland and Delaware. The storm will also cover much of Kentucky, southern Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Long Island (which is of course not a state but a region of New York state) and southern New England. Amounts may be record breaking in Washington DC, Baltimore, and other cities nearby. Some predictions go as high as 75 cms with 100 cms in a few spots. But it seems a safe bet that 50 cms will definitely fall, then will blow around in strong northeast to north winds. New York City has predictions ranging from 10 to 35 cms as models all cut off the snow around there, and Boston is more likely than not to be just outside the heaviest snowfall zone with 5-15 cms.

That storm will move rather slowly this weekend then accelerate, and it is more or less the same disturbance as we see approaching Ireland late Tuesday with the predicted windstorm. You'll be on the milder side of it, so any snow would be delayed until colder air wraps in behind it and probably only on hills in the northwest even then.

My local weather was also active, an entirely different storm is hitting the west coast and forcing very mild air north. At one point it was 14 C here, with occasional rain and gusty winds.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 23 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: The moon will be full tonight, with the exact time of the event being 0147h (Sunday).


TODAY ... Becoming overcast with moderate southerly winds 50-80 km/hr, an interval of rain this afternoon (evening east) will bring perhaps 5-8 mms rainfall, and highs will reach 11 or 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Breezy and mild, just a few brief showers in a few western counties, lows 5-7 C.

SUNDAY ... Continued mild and breezy, drizzle at times more likely near Atlantic coasts, but no large amounts of rain expected, highs 10-12 C. Winds south to southwest 50-80 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Very windy at times, showers then clearing as winds veer from southerly to westerly at about 70-110 km/hr. Lows 5-8 C and highs 10-12 C.

TUESDAY ... Another windy period will develop mid-day, blustery showers or a driving rain in some parts of the north and west, temperatures steady in the range 8-11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Early morning strong winds from south veering to west, mild until about sunrise, then turning colder, temperatures falling from near 10 C to about 3-7 C, wintry showers with snow on hills, winds gusting to 110 km/hr and possibly higher (see later forecasts -- this is the remnant of the current east coast U.S. blizzard).

THURSDAY ... Breezy and still rather cool although any showers will be rain as temperatures rise from morning lows of 1-3 C to about 7-9 C in gusty southwest to west winds (50-70 km/hr).

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... Milder with moderate southwest winds, the earlier idea of any frosts in the inland south are reduced now as the flow remains a bit too strong, but overnight temperatures will likely be lower in the inland south (at about 4-6 C) than most other places (6-8 C) while highs throughout will be in the 10-13 C range.

FEBRUARY OUTLOOK ... The following Monday will be the first of February so rather than a weekly outlook, I am posting this more general outlook for February -- the first week appears likely to be relatively mild with more westerly type flow although with colder intervals breaking through, then around mid-month expect a colder period that may deepen into significant cold at some point during the second half of the month.

The outlook for BRITAIN is similar in all regards in this fast-moving sequence but add about six to nine hours to the timetable when estimating events for southeast England (in other words, they arrive later there).

Meanwhile, the intense blizzard has hit the Mid-Atlantic states as expected and reports indicate 25 cms of snow already with lots more to come. That will be closer to the storm total in New York City (40 cms possibly) and Boston is still expected to be near the edge of the storm. Not sure what's going to happen with the big football game in Charlotte, North Carolina on Sunday as they have the effects of an ice storm to contend with there, Boston's team is headed for Denver (no doubt there already in fact) which should be mild and dry. My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy and mild with brief showers, highs near 12 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 24 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Continued mild and breezy, drizzle at times more likely near Atlantic coasts, but no large amounts of rain expected, highs 11-14 C. Winds south to southwest 50-80 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Overcast with periods of rain developing, foggy especially on higher terrain, mild with lows 6-9 C. About 10 mm of rain likely.

MONDAY ... Very windy at times, showers then clearing as winds veer from southerly to westerly at about 70-110 km/hr with highs 10-12 C generally during the morning to mid-day hours, slightly cooler by afternoon. A further 10 to 15 mm rain, mostly during the morning.

TUESDAY ... Another windy period will develop mid-day, blustery showers or a driving rain in some parts of the north and west, temperatures steady in the range 8-11 C. Winds increasing to southwest 80-120 km/hr by late in the day. About 20-40 mm rain possible, expect some resumption of flooding in parts of the west and south.

WEDNESDAY ... Early morning strong winds from south veering to west, mild until about sunrise, then turning colder, temperatures falling from near 10 C to about 3-7 C, wintry showers with snow on hills, early morning winds from west gusting to 110 km/hr with just slight improvement to 60-90 km/hr later in the day, feeling very cold as a result of these winds. Some accumulations of about 2-5 cms of snow possible in west-facing hilly parts of the north and west, 1-3 cms on higher slopes in southeast too. Just passing hail, sleet or snow showers at lower elevations.

THURSDAY ... Breezy and still rather cool although any showers will be rain as temperatures rise from morning lows of 1-3 C to about 7-9 C in gusty southwest to west winds (50-70 km/hr).

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... Milder with moderate southwest winds at least for the southern two thirds and for some if not all of this period, model guidance breaks apart into two camps by the weekend with some indications of cold northwest winds developing, but other indications that this will only reach parts of the north and without much force. So we'll be watching to see how strong this breakthrough of colder air (a second surge given that Wed and part of Thurs will be rather cold too) turns out to be. If the ECM model is right there could be further snow showers in the west and north by the 30th with some slight accumulations again. As far as any really newsworthy snow in Britain or Ireland (rumours reached my distant cave about such matters), that might happen on some higher peaks in Scotland perhaps, so I'd be careful if venturing off to find Master Luke or such endeavours (lots of rumours come to my attention).

Just briefly, the eastern U.S. blizzard has just about left its last victims (eastern Massachusetts) and everywhere else that it visited is digging out of about 50-75 cms of snow. There were reports of 100 cms near the higher terrain in western Maryland and the West Virginia panhandle region northwest of Washington DC. But the large cities all have plenty of snow to move, with several days of slow melting (and sublimation) to help reduce the burden. At this point it looks like a fairly steady recovery because there is no really active weather in the forecast and it helps having non-working day(s) to start working on the snow loads. So as bad as it sounds, my guess is that things will be almost back to normal by about Tuesday, certainly Wednesday. Airports that were closed should be opening in stages through the day but I would imagine Monday might be the day for anything approaching full normal operations.

My local weather on Saturday remained mild and rather bland with some brief sunny intervals, but rain has returned since sunset. Highs near 9 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 25 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


ADVANCE ALERT for heavy rainfalls (30-50 mm) and strong winds (80 to 120 km/hr from southwest) on Tuesday, continuing into Wednesday morning, then followed by some localized snowfalls mainly over northwestern counties.

TODAY ... Very windy at times, showers then clearing as winds veer from southerly to westerly at about 70-110 km/hr with highs 11-13 C generally during the morning to mid-day hours, slightly cooler by afternoon (8 C or thereabouts). A further 10 to 15 mm rain, mostly during the morning, will fall over Connacht and Ulster, amounts in Munster and Leinster may be held down to 3 to 7 mm.

TONIGHT ... Rapidly warming up again in strong southerly winds 70-110 km/hr with rain developing around midnight, earlier in some southwestern coastal regions, foggy by morning. Rainfalls by morning about 10-15 mm.

TUESDAY ... Another windy period will develop mid-day, blustery showers or a driving rain in some parts of the north and west, temperatures steady in the range 9-13 C. Winds increasing to southwest 80-120 km/hr by about mid-day. About 20-40 mm further rain possible, expect some resumption of flooding in parts of the west and south.

WEDNESDAY ... Early morning strong winds from south veering to west, mild until about sunrise, then turning colder, temperatures falling from near 10 C to about 3-7 C, rain then clearing east and becoming mixed with hail before wintry showers develop with snow on hills, early morning winds from west gusting to 110 km/hr with just slight improvement to 70-100 km/hr later in the day, feeling very cold as a result of these winds. Some accumulations of about 2-5 cms of snow possible in west-facing hilly parts of the north and west, 1-3 cms on higher slopes in southeast too. Just passing hail, sleet or snow showers at lower elevations.

THURSDAY ... Breezy and still rather cool to mid-day although any showers will be rain as temperatures rise from morning lows of 1-3 C to about 7-9 C in gusty southwest to west winds (50-70 km/hr). By late afternoon and evening, a full southwest gale and heavy rainfall with highs 10-12 C. About 15-30 mm of rain by Friday morning.

FRIDAY ... Windy or very windy (potential for gusts to 130 km/hr) with squally showers, winds WSW 80-120 km/hr. Highs near 11 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and much colder with passing showers of hail or snow, sleet. Lows near 2 C and highs near 6 C.

SUNDAY ... Are you dizzy yet? Windy and mild with periods of rain, highs back up to 10 or 11 C.

Given the volatile nature of this fast westerly pattern, timing details may easily change and going much further will be pointless as the variability of models is increasing to high levels (low confidence). It will probably turn considerably colder for more than just a few hours at some point in early February but there could be more shots of milder, wet weather too.

The snowstorm has ended in the eastern U.S. and recovery is underway. The rest of the week in the eastern and central states will be seasonably cool but not overly cold, and this snow will probably be half consumed by a combination of evaporation and melting by Friday or so. The west will be quite mild and the desert southwest will have a glorious interval of sunshine and warmth. My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy with brief light showers and highs near 7 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 26 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

The alert for heavy rainfall and strong winds continues but will expire from west to east around mid-day, flooding may result and continue afterwards ... a brief resumption of strong winds could develop especially in south coast counties late this evening. And wintry showers are still possible later tomorrow.


TODAY ... Strong winds (south to southwest 80-110 km/hr) gradually easing by afternoon (southwest 40-60 km/hr), and the heavy rain will taper off to showers with some partial clearing in the west this afternoon. Relatively mild with highs 11-13 C.

TONIGHT ... A few intervals of rain (about 10 mm in some places) with stronger winds redeveloping for a time (SW 50-90 km/hr), temperatures steady 9 to 12 C. Turning colder in Connacht before sunrise.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and gradually turning colder with showers becoming mixed and wintry especially over higher parts of the north. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr adding a chill to afternoon temperatures steady or slowly falling 5-8 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy and gradually becoming milder again, winds southwest 60-100 km/hr, lows 3-5 C and highs 8-10 C. About 10 to 20 mm of rain by late evening.

FRIDAY ... Windy and mild with occasional rain, winds westerly about 80-110 km/hr with risk of higher gusts in north, about 10 mm of rain and highs near 12 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and colder, mixed wintry showers, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr, lows 2-4 C and highs 5-8 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will be milder again (10-12 C) with rain at times as we enter February, then several days of colder weather with gusty west to northwest winds and wintry showers next week. Highs near 6 C, slight frosts are possible. Very strong winds may develop during this colder interval.

My local weather on Monday was partly to mostly cloudy with a high near 9 C. We are expecting some rain and very mild temperatures (12-14 C) today.

M.T. Cranium

ALERT for VERY HEAVY RAINFALL in LEINSTER

0645h Wed 27 Jan 2016

Torrential rainfalls have been reported in the past hour around Mullingar (17 mm in one hour) and radar shows this rainfall moving towards the east coast. Much of Leinster including the greater Dublin region will experience similar torrential rates of rainfall within the next hour or two, leading to flooding of low-lying roadways and stream overflows. Be very alert if you're heading out this morning. The regular forecast will be posted separately in about half an hour

M.T. Cranium

My apologies for the lack of formatting in my recent posts -- I have a very basic screen for boards.ie that induces nostalgia for the mid-1990s but does not provide any obvious way to code text as bold or italic. So there you have it. I can see that my posts are appearing because yesterday's post has about the usual number of "thanks" (thanks). I did find one discussion thread where I could see that a few others are in my boat. I have not figured out how to get back to a full boards experience yet. But I will post what I can (it also slows down my scanning of the weather forum for valuable recent posts although it does not prevent that entirely, as you can guess, on a day like this, I have only limited time to prepare a forecast so here we go >>>)

Wednesday 27 January 2016

Forecasts for Ireland
______________________________________________

ALERT already issued for heavy to torrential rainfalls in central and northern Leinster (possibly parts of east Ulster) now to about 0900h. There may be some moderate to severe local flooding of roadways and brief stream overflows as 15-25 mm of rain could fall within the space of one hour.

ALERT also for wintry showers and some accumulations of snow on hills in northwest later today.

Forecasts:

TODAY will see the last of the blustery and heavy showers this morning in Leinster, a few more less severe but possibly squally showers, partial clearing then the onset of a much colder spell lasting about half a day, from mid-day to midnight (this is as good as it gets this winter) ... temperatures near 10 C will fall off to 4-7 C with winds veering to westerly 50-80 km/hr.

TONIGHT will continue windy and cold for a while but temperatures near 2 or 3 C will probably rise in most places after midnight and reach 4-7 C by morning, with rain at times.

THURSDAY will be windy with occasional rain (5-10 mm) and highs near 10 C.

FRIDAY will become very windy (gusts to 120 km/hr in north) with an interval of heavier rain (10-20 mm), highs near 12 C.

FRIDAY NIGHT into MID-DAY SATURDAY will be a colder interlude with mixed wintry showers possible, rather windy in south, and temperatures steady around 4 or 5 C.

LATER SATURDAY into SUNDAY another warm sector moves in, rain resumes and temperatures rise to 12 C. However, this system may run into remnants of the cold air in north Leinster and Ulster, leading to sleet or a colder rain for a time at least. The potential for snow seems slight but this could change.

MONDAY (1st Feb) will begin to turn colder late in the day, then models disagree somewhat but trends are all towards considerably colder weather -- the European model says very cold with snowfall potential around 6th or 7th of February. At this point due to the volatile nature of the regime we are already in, only low confidence can be assigned to any model output but at least we have something interesting to track now.

The regime for BRITAIN should be very similar in all regards.

The eastern half of the U.S.A. and eastern Canada have seen milder conditions after the east coast blizzard, and very light rainfalls in some places. Somewhat colder air is now spreading south into those regions. The far west is under sprawling high pressure. It's quite mild near the west coast and in the desert southwest, rather cold under the inversion of the high near Salt Lake City (parts of eastern Idaho never shook off low cloud or fog and stayed near -10 C). My local weather on Tuesday was mild and wet with a high near 12 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 28 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with showery rain (about 3-7 mm) and moderate southwest winds 50-80 km/hr.

TONIGHT and FRIDAY MORNING ... Milder and very windy with rain becoming heavier at times (10-15 mm), temperatures in the 9-12 C range, and winds from WSW at 80-110 km/hr (possibly 130 km/hr in north Donegal).

MID-DAY FRIDAY to SATURDAY will be colder again, with temperatures falling to about 1-3 C overnight and rising to only 4-7 C on Saturday. Winds will moderate to westerly 40-70 km/hr and may fall off to light at times. A few wintry showers may develop near northwest coasts and over higher terrain in all regions but there could be some dry intervals too.

SATURDAY NIGHT may bring an interval of sleet or light snow at least in parts of the inland north-central counties, otherwise a very gradual warming trend will develop with temperatures creeping back up towards 5-7 C by morning.

SUNDAY and the first half of MONDAY (1st Feb) will be mild and windy with heavy rainfall possible, winds southwest 70-110 km/hr. Highs could reach 13.

OUTLOOK ... Turning colder again late Monday and through much of the following week, although Tuesday looks colder than most other days with strong northwest winds and possible wintry showers, snow on higher ground in north and west. Temperatures not far from 4 C during this windy period and ranging from slight frosts at night to highs near 7 C later in the week. There are rather tentative signs of even colder weather developing towards the weekend of 6-7 Feb.

My local weather on Wednesday was very mild with occasional rain, highs reaching 14 C.

DOCARCH

Mod Note: Now that MT seems back on track with formatting his posts, I am moving the advice given to this thread http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=205755275pptidy to keep the daily forecast thread clean and tidy.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 29 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Strong to severe wind gusts currently near 120 km/hr should begin to moderate soon across the northern and central two-thirds of the country, with squally showers racing east, followed by partly cloudy skies and westerly winds diminishing to about 50 to 80 km/hr. Temperatures will slide down gradually reaching 7-9 C mid-day then about 4-6 C by sunset. Further showers may develop mainly in northern counties.

TONIGHT and SATURDAY will become much colder with passing wintry showers and accumulations of 2-5 cms snow on some hills in northwest. Most places could see a bit of passing snow but little accumulation. Lows 1-3 C and highs 4-7 C, cold westerly winds 50-80 km/hr making it feel like -3 C.

SATURDAY NIGHT will turn slightly milder in the south and this may create a band of sleet or snow moving northeast through parts of Connacht, north Leinster and Ulster. Temperatures will be steady 0-2 C in this zone, and will rise to 3-5 C further south where light rain may develop.

SUNDAY and the first part of MONDAY (1st Feb) will be windy (very windy at times in north, SW wind gusts may reach 120 km/hr) and mild with occasional rain. Highs 11-14 C may be set right around the end of one month and start of another!

Later MONDAY into TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will turn colder again in more of a northwest flow, highs generally 4-7 C and slight frosts possible with passing wintry showers, perhaps widespread on Tuesday.

The end of the week looks set to turn a little milder (7-9 C) with occasional light rain and south to southwest winds, but another cold spell will likely follow, models are rather volatile at present with indications of very cold air trying to work its way south but having to contend with a slow-moving low that will remain close to Ireland for several days. The combination could result in some snow or sleet.

My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy with a mild high near 12 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 30 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Windy and cold with intervals of snow or sleet, more prolonged and heavier in higher parts of Connacht and Ulster, also on highest terrain elsewhere. Some snow may fall almost anywhere but accumulations are only likely in the higher locations first mentioned (2-5 cm possible). Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr and highs only 3-7 C. Some of the wintry showers may contain hail and thunder too, and they will sometimes turn to a cold rain near sea level.

TONIGHT ... Most regions will stay cold (-2 to +2 C) with the risk of some light snow or sleet and a coating on some higher terrain, roads may become icy as a result. The south and west coast will likely become slightly milder (3-6 C) with mist or drizzle.

SUNDAY ... Turning slowly milder in stages, although not until evening in much of Ulster and north Leinster. Other regions should reach 9-10 C eventually with intervals of rain moving gradually further north, bringing 5-15 mm to most places by evening. Sleet is still possible in parts of Ulster however as temperatures remain colder near 3 or 4 C.

MONDAY ... The early morning and overnight hours (Sunday-Monday) will become very windy and temperatures will peak at around 13 or 14 C with southwest gales 70-110 km/hr (80-130 km/hr in exposed coastal locations). There will be some rain but mostly a dry start, then showers developing as it begins to turn colder, with some brighter intervals, winds veering more to westerly and staying strong (70-110 km/hr) as temperatures drift down to around 6 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will be cold with passing mixed wintry showers. There may actually be more of these in Munster as cold air will be directed across the south and somewhat milder air will circulate around in northern counties, but temperature differences will be slight, 4-7 C will be the overall range by day, and slight frosts will occur at night except in windy locations.

OUTLOOK ... the end of next week will probably be a little milder again with some rain and highs near 9 C. However, there are indications of a colder interval around the weekend of 6th-7th and rather conflicting signals beyond that with some potential for colder weather to develop. So if there's going to be any significant snow away from hilly terrain this winter, it could come in about a week or two.

The weather pattern will be quite similar over BRITAIN with today's colder temperatures spreading across southern England during the day.

Across much of the United States, the weather is bland and rather mild but a storm is gradually taking shape over Nevada and Utah this weekend. This will move out into the plains states by Monday and will approach the Great Lakes on Tuesday, spreading snow into the northern plains, but pulling very mild air northward into the plains states and east coast. A severe storm outbreak could develop around the Ohio valley late Tuesday. My local weather on Friday was cool and showery with highs near 7 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 31 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with outbreaks of rain, generally moving further north as the day progresses, 5-10 mm likely. Milder in stages, with temperatures around 9 to 11 C by afternoon. Moderate southwest winds 60-90 km/hr will get stronger late in the day.

TONIGHT ... Very windy and mild, temperatures steady 11-14 C, some rain at times in north, winds WSW 80-120 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Very windy and turning gradually colder with passing showers becoming wintry in parts of north and on higher terrain elsewhere by late afternoon and evening. Winds will continue strong westerly 80-130 km/hr with some minor damage possible in exposed areas. Temperatures will slide down to about 7 C mid-day and 3 C by evening.

TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, passing wintry showers, cold with west to northwest winds 50-90 km/hr. Morning lows 0-3 C and afternoon highs 4-7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Further wintry showers, but becoming slightly milder late in the day, morning lows -1 to +3 C and afternoon or evening highs of 6-9 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be somewhat milder again with occasional rain, south to southwest winds and highs near 9 or 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... There are indications of cold and perhaps wintry weather over the weekend of 6-7 Feb into Monday 8th and possibly beyond that. Details will probably change but it seems likely that temperatures will be just in the marginal range where any rain near sea level could become sleety and turn to snow on higher slopes. The European model is tracking a deep low across the south coast and into Britain on a track that would pull in strong northeast winds, with these marginal temperatures it would not take a big change to turn rain to snow, but we're going to have to wait for more reliable guidance to be very sure about details. But expect at the least a rather raw and cold pattern with sleety falls of rain near sea level and possibly wet snow a bit higher up and inland.

This pattern also applies in general to BRITAIN. ... Across North America, it's fairly mild in most places but a storm is brewing over the far western states (inland, Great Basin region) that will move out into the plains states on Monday and cross the Great Lakes on Tuesday, with very mild temperatures and rain ahead of it, snow and blowing snow on its northern flank and the risk of severe storms developing in the central states on Tuesday. Meanwhile my local weather on Saturday was cool and showery with highs near 7 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 1 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for very strong westerly winds, persisting all day but peaking in severity late afternoon into the evening hours. The increase will only be slight, expect wind speeds in exposed locations of 80-120 km/hr with possible higher gusts around 130 km/hr later. Minor wind damage is likely and crosswinds on north-south routes will be dangerous (especially for high sided vehicles). Wintry showers may accompany the strong winds by tonight, expect some intervals of reduced visibility and slippery road conditions.

TODAY will be very windy with some sunny intervals and a few passing showers, as temperatures gradually decrease from current levels to about 8 C around mid-day and 4 C by evening. Winds westerly 80-120 km/hr in exposed locations (60-100 km/hr even in sheltered places) and possibly a little higher at times this afternoon and evening.

TONIGHT will continue very windy and it will become cold enough for showers to become wintry in many parts, with slight accumulations of snow on hills especially in north. Lows 1-3. Winds westerly 80-130 km/hr at first will moderate slightly towards morning (70-110 km/hr).

TUESDAY will be windy and cold with passing wintry showers, some accumulations of snow on hills in west Munster, Connacht and Ulster, as well as higher parts of the Dublin and Wicklow mountains. Just some passing and non-accumulating snow possible at lower elevations where showers could also contain hail, cold rain or sleet, and also produce thunder. Highs 4-7 C. Winds west to northwest 60-90 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY will start out quite cold although less windy, with a risk of some passing wintry showers, then it will turn considerably milder especially in the south and west, by late in the day. Temperatures there will rise from lows near freezing to highs of 9-11 C. Further north the milder trend will be more gradual and highs will reach 5-7 C. Moderate west to southwest winds. Rain will spread into parts of the south and west by evening.

THURSDAY will be a milder day with some rain and highs near 10 C.

FRIDAY will continue mild to mid-afternoon then it may turn sharply colder with squally and possibly wintry showers developing, winds becoming strong west to northwest. Early highs 8-10 C but temperatures likely to be just above freezing by late afternoon and evening.

OUTLOOK while still a bit uncertain is both unsettled and cold, which suggests some potential for snow especially away from milder coasts. I feel that the models may continue to change the details so for now will just say that it does not look very windy, just moderate winds from a variety of directions as weak to moderate lows pass by. The most likely track for these is across the south but the exact details will determine temperatures and snow potential. The first half of the following week will likely remain cold and perhaps bring widespread snow showers (nothing yet to indicate more than a dusting of 1-3 cms). Most of the guidance hints at a somewhat milder interval after that, although not the sort of very mild weather that has been frequent this winter so far.

The southwestern U.S. has low elevation rain and plateau, mountain snows as low pressure near Las Vegas moves towards Denver later today. This will set off a snowstorm in the central and northern plains states as well as most of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming. About 15-25 cms of snow could fall. But it will become mild and windy over the south-central plains states towards the Great Lakes region, where the storm will arrive Tuesday and drop temperatures by at least 10 degrees. My local weather on Sunday was overcast with light rain and it was chilly, about 4 or 5 C with heavy snow falling on local hills.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 2 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... windy and cold with passing wintry showers, some accumulations of snow on hills in west Munster, Connacht and Ulster, as well as higher parts of the Dublin and Wicklow mountains. Just some passing and non-accumulating snow possible at lower elevations where showers could also contain hail, cold rain or sleet, and also produce thunder. Highs 4-7 C. Winds west to northwest 60-90 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Cold with wintry showers, some accumulations of snow on hills in west and north (1-3 cms can be expected). Lows zero to 3 C. Gusty northwest winds will moderate somewhat to 40-60 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY will start out quite cold although less windy, with a risk of some passing wintry showers, then it will turn considerably milder especially in the south and west, by late in the day. Temperatures there will rise from lows near freezing to highs of 9-11 C. Further north the milder trend will be more gradual and highs will reach 5-7 C. Moderate west to southwest winds. Rain will spread into parts of the south and west by evening.

THURSDAY will be a milder day with some rain and highs near 10 C. Moderate to strong southwest winds 60-90 km/hr by afternoon and evening.

FRIDAY will continue mild to mid-afternoon then it may turn sharply colder with squally and possibly wintry showers developing, winds becoming strong west to northwest. Early highs 8-10 C but temperatures likely to be just above freezing by late afternoon and evening.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Moderate southwest to west winds and rather cold, some wintry showers at times, also some light rain most likely overnight. Highs near 7 C both days, just some isolated frost with lows mainly 1-3 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The early part of next week could turn quite stormy and with temperatures just above freezing there will be mixed falls of rain, sleet and snow depending on elevation. This could go either way from this distance, possibly a milder outcome or possibly a more wintry result.

The U.S. storm has developed about as expected and there may be some severe thunderstorms in the central states late today and into the overnight hours (which will be tomorrow morning in Ireland). My local weather was generally dry for a change but continued cool with a high near 6 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 3 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some persistent rain in central counties this morning (5-8 mm in a few locations), otherwise partly cloudy, isolated showers and rather windy (WNW 40-70 km/hr), longer dry intervals mid-day, and turning milder with highs reaching 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT ... A few hours of light rain for most, milder than recent nights with lows about 5-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy but with some afternoon sunny intervals, rain ending during the morning followed by just a few isolated showers, moderate south to southwest winds, highs near 10 or 11 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy with passing showers, some of them becoming squally with hail, winds southwest to west 50-80 km/hr, highs near 9 C. Somewhat colder by late afternoon and evening.

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy and rather cold with passing showers, sleety on high terrain, highs near 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Becoming very windy by late in the day with some pulses of heavier rain developing, winds WSW 80-120 km/hr by late afternoon and evening. Highs near 9 C.

MONDAY ... Strong winds moderating, rather cold with passing showers, highs near 7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Breezy to windy and rather cold later in the week. There is still some potential for a significantly colder spell developing but guidance is currently mixed on that outcome.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with a few sprinkles of light rain and chilly with highs near 5 C. Further east, some parts of Nebraska had over 40 cms of snow in blizzard-like conditions. This snow is heading for the northern Great Lakes region, further south it is breezy and mild with rain and fog. Much colder weather will develop by the weekend in many parts of eastern North America.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 4 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Breezy and milder with some light rain at times mostly confined to western coastal districts, highs 10-12 C, winds southwest 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, mild, rain becoming heavier (5-10 mm) and spreading further east. Lows 7-9 C.

FRIDAY ... The morning will be windy and mild with further rain (5-10 mm) then it will turn somewhat colder with some of the rain turning to sleet on higher terrain, temperatures near 10 C at first will fall off to 4-7 C in westerly winds of 50-80 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Windy and rather cold with passing showers of rain or hail, possibly mixing with snow on higher ground in north. Highs near 7 or 8 C. Winds southwest 70-110 km/hr with possible higher gusts.

SUNDAY ... Continued windy with showers or intervals of rain, about 10-15 mm likely, and becoming very windy near south coast by evening and overnight. There is some doubt whether these very strong winds will strike further north but the south coast is most likely at risk of gusts to 120 km/hr. Temperatures will be steady 5-7 C north and 7-10 C south.

MONDAY ... Strong winds (where they develop) will gradually moderate to about 50-80 km/hr from west, and it will be quite cold with mixed wintry showers in the north, rain showers at lower elevations elsewhere, and highs only 5 to 8 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The week may continue rather cold and will also be very windy at times with further rainfalls, possibly becoming heavy enough in total accumulation to produce flooding in some places.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast and cool with some rain at times and a high of about 8 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 5 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rain will gradually move eastward across the country, and it will last about four hours on average (it's already raining in most of Connacht). Amounts will range from 15 mm in the west to 25 mm east-central as the band intensifies around early afternoon. Clearing skies will gradually replace this rainfall in western counties by afternoon and it will turn a few degrees cooler, with temperatures near 11 C before the rain, 9 C during it and 6-8 C after it clears.

TONIGHT ... Clear skies will allow some patchy inland frost and associated icy roads in a few areas with lows to about -2 C, but coastal and urban areas will likely stay around 2-4 C.

SATURDAY ... Rapidly increasing southerly winds and another band of heavy rainfall (15-25 mm) with spot flooding possible, then partial clearing with strong southwest winds 60-100 km/hr. Highs near 9 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy with occasional rain and squally showers developing, most areas will see gusts to about 90 km/hr but parts of Donegal could see stronger winds as an intense low passes quickly by to the north. Lows 3-5 C and highs about 8 C.

SUNDAY NIGHT and MONDAY will bring an interval of very strong winds to the south coast (southwest to west 70-120 km/hr) but it will not be very windy further north closer to another centre of low pressure moving east across the country. There will be showers or periods of rain and the risk of hail near the south coast in the stronger winds. Later, all regions will see moderate westerly winds 50-80 km/hr and passing showers in cold conditions (temperatures will be steady in the 4-7 C range for most, 9-10 C south coast).

OUTLOOK ... The weather will continue very unsettled all week with several more intervals of rainfall. Temperatures will continue to hover around 6 or 7 C most of the time. By Thursday it will be cold enough that some of this rain could fall as sleet on higher ground when winds become northerly and temperatures begin to fall off somewhat. This may be followed by some bright but cold weather before what looks like a reload of the milder pattern that has shown up each month since October at some point (and in all cases near the end of the months although November and December had relative warmth almost all month).

My local weather on Thursday was a bit milder but more rain was recorded, not very heavy though, with highs near 9 C. We're looking forward to warming conditions here and possible near-record warmth early next week. That regime will show up in a timely fashion over California this weekend for the Super Bowl to be held on Sunday near San Francisco where they're expecting sunshine and 20 C temperatures. Meanwhile, this warmth will be at the expense of deep cold moving south into most other regions of North America to the east of the Rockies through the weekend and next week. The east coast will get into that in stages and will remain close to normal temperatures to about mid-week.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 6 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rain becoming heavy at times, 15-25 mm likely, strong southerly winds developing, veering to southwest 50-80 km/hr. Highs 9-11 C. Temperatures will fall to about 7 C in western counties this afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Windy and colder with mixed wintry showers and some snow possible on higher terrain, lows 1 to 3 C. Winds southwest 40-60 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Windy and cold with passing showers, still some wintry showers but less frequent except on highest ground. Highs 5-8 C. Winds southwest to west 50-80 km/hr.

SUNDAY NIGHT into MONDAY ... Becoming very windy in south coastal counties (SW to W 70-120 km/hr) with squally showers. Elsewhere, winds more moderate and showers merging into periods of light rain. At times the winds may become almost calm in the inland north, with fog developing. Temperatures will be steady 8-10 C south, 5-8 C north and central. Later Monday winds will become westerly 50-80 km/hr in all regions with passing showers, some of them wintry.

TUESDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, passing wintry showers, cold. Lows 1-3 C and highs 6-9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Around mid-week, a low will track east across Ireland, at this point the outcome looks rather marginal for snow except perhaps on higher ground in the south and central counties. A cold rain or sleet could be expected at lower elevations, temperatures only in the 5-7 C range at best. This disturbance will be followed by cold, partly cloudy conditions but another rather weak disturbance is expected along a similar track around Saturday, but this one may produce somewhat more snow as temperatures will be a degree or two lower (2-5 C) by then. With this rather marginal outlook, it should be understood that the more reliable time frame may shift either way to less or perhaps more in the way of snow in the mix.

My local weather was overcast with light rain at times and a high near 10 C. We are expecting a warming trend with highs of 15-18 C across the region by early next week and low to mid 20s further south. The central states and prairie provinces of Canada will be turning colder and eventually also the east coast. Some light snow will develop over the Great Lakes and Midwest regions and later on the east coast as well.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 7 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for strong winds tonight in south coastal counties and southern portions of the west coast, with associated storm surge flooding around high tides (new moon occurs on Monday) as storm "Imogen" approaches. Peak winds are likely this evening and early Monday morning. Tides could run as much as 1.5 metres above their normal values in the south, and to a lesser extent further north even where winds are not very strong. There will also be some localized heavy rainfall Sunday afternoon in advance of the strong winds.

TODAY ... Any bright spells in the east will be short-lived, as cloud followed by intervals of heavy rain will follow, in moderate but blustery southwest winds in the 50-80 km/hr range. Highs 7-9 C, except 9-11 C south coast. Rainfalls of about 20 to 25 mm possible, some localized flooding could result.

TONIGHT ... Becoming very windy across the south coast and portions of the west coast mainly south Clare and Kerry, winds WSW 80-120 km/hr. Further north, wind gust potential will drop off steadily with the approach of the slack centre of "imogen" whose strongest winds are about 200-300 miles south of the centre (which is tracking towards Donegal Bay). So while the south will see stormy conditions, the north will trend in the opposite direction to an interval of relative calm by the early morning hours. All regions will see some further rain and possibly a few wintry showers on higher ground as temperatures in the north remain 3-5 C inland. Most other regions will have temperatures of 5 to 7 C, south coast 7 to 10 C. There may be some storm surge flooding in parts of the south coast and west coast.

MONDAY ... The stronger winds will move away to southern England but then all regions will be in a more balanced west to northwest flow of 70-100 km/hr with squally showers and some wintry showers on hills. Highs will be similar to the overnight temperatures, 4-7 C north and 8-10 C south.

TUESDAY ... Continued rather windy and cold with passing showers, some of them wintry. Highs near 7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Morning frosts and afternoon wintry showers, lows about -1 to +3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

THURSDAY ... Rain, sleet or wet snow are all possible in a very marginal situation, the rain of course will be most likely near sea level and in coastal areas generally, while snow will be most likely in Ulster, inland Connacht and higher parts of other regions. Lows 1-3 C and highs 4-7 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY are somewhat uncertain given a spread in guidance, but further snow or sleet cannot be ruled out at this early stage, and in fact some guidance suggests potential for heavy wet snow inland. Too early to be very defininite on this potential, as one model shows low pressure tracking in a very favourable (for snow) location near the south coast, but other guidance has it a bit further north.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This colder regime may settle in for a while but it would probably become more settled under higher pressure connecting the distant Atlantic high (which will retreat west of the Azores) to high pressure in northern Europe. Eventually this would probably revert to a milder southwest flow but it may take most of February to get back to that. At the same time, this is currently one "turn of the dial" short of a really robust cold wintry pattern, in other words, that transitional situation that weather forecasters find both challenging and frustrating.

My local weather was quite mild and dry with a few spells of hazy sunshine on Saturday, with a high near 10 C. The next few days are expected to be near record warm all over the western third of North America. It will be turning much colder further east, mainly dry for the time being but some snow may develop in the east coast major cities by about Tuesday (5-15 cm amounts are expected) and also in the Great Lakes region.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 8 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Very windy across the south this morning, and becoming windy also in central counties (Galway to Dublin) while staying relatively moderate in the north. Winds generally west to northwest, gusting to 120 km/hr in exposed parts of the south, 100 km/hr central and 70 km/hr north. (Even stronger winds will gradually moderate across the open Atlantic south of Cork where gusts over 150 km/hr have been recorded.) Squally and sometimes wintry showers likely with a few brighter spells too. Rainfall or equivalent about 5 to 10 mm for most places. Highs 7-9 C south, 4-7 C central and north. Caution advised as some coastal flooding may develop with high tides this morning, new moon occurs today (1440h). Some of this flooding may already be underway and could be a serious concern in some parts of west Munster.

TONIGHT and TUESDAY will continue windy and cold with passing wintry showers and some accumulations of snow on hills especially those in west Munster. Winds westerly 70-90 km/hr and temperatures in the range of -1 to 3 tonight, 4 to 7 on Tuesday. Rainfall or equivalent about 3 to 7 mm.

WEDNESDAY will see some passing showers too, or intervals of light sleety rain with wet snow possible on hills, continued cold but not as windy, lows about -2 to +2 C and highs 4 to 7 C.

THURSDAY will bring further mixed wintry showers and a few bright intervals, somewhat stronger northwest winds again, and highs only 3 to 7 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will be unsettled with the risk of snow or sleet developing. Details are very uncertain at this point, almost all guidance has some potential for wintry falls but it will take a few days to be very certain about timing or regions most likely to see the greater amounts. As temperatures will be marginal (0 to 4 C) some coastal rain seems inevitable too, but eventually some snowfalls of 5 to 10 cm are quite possible. The inland southeast, Connacht and Ulster are all about equally likely to see some of this snow, and of course higher slopes could see more persistent and possibly larger amounts. One scenario is that low pressure could form near the south coast moving slowly east. This would pull in cold northeast winds and rain would turn to snow. Another possible scenario is that a frontal boundary stalling through south-central counties would generate mixed falls of sleet and snow.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for the unsettled spell to end with a frost and clearing skies towards Monday 15th then rapid warming would follow for a day or two with temperatures soaring to about 11 or 12 C.

So, this coming week will be perhaps the most wintry period that we will see in the otherwise mild winter season. Over in BRITAIN, the ongoing strong winds of "Imogen" will peak over southern England this morning with gusts to about 120 km/hr. Hill snow is likely further north. After that, the scenario is generally similar to Ireland with the risk of snowfalls on several occasions in a rather cold regime.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast and mild with a high of about 8 C, but even warmer conditions are spreading in from the south and we're looking forward to some sunshine and highs near 13 C the next several days. The eastern states will soon be seeing their second (or third) snowfall event developing tonight and Tuesday. Amounts of 5-15 cm are expected from Washington to Boston. There will also be scattered but lighter snowfalls throughout the Great Lakes and Midwest regions.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 9 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cold and continuing rather windy (westerly 40-70 km/hr) with some bright intervals in the east, frequent showers or periods of sleety rain feeding in from the Atlantic and reaching many central districts too (4-8 mm) with the risk of snow on higher terrain, in particular for west Munster where the coldest air aloft will be encountered. Highs only 4 to 7 C. By afternoon, some mixed wintry showers may become widespread along a slow-moving trough edging south from Ulster into Connacht and north Leinster.

TONIGHT ... Widespread clearing and frost with icy roads possible, mixed wintry showers will be more confined to higher terrain in the west mainly, and lows of -2 to +2 C will be observed with winds becoming considerably slacker.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will continue in a cold and somewhat unsettled theme with some sunny intervals each day, some passing wintry showers and generally light to moderate westerly to northwesterly breezes 30-50 km/hr. Highs each day will be 4 to 7 C for most, 8 or 9 C in a few parts of the south coast. Thursday and Friday mornings will continue to bring some frost and icy roads in a few locations, and throughout there will be the risk of some isolated falls of hill snow.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK remains less than totally determined but almost all guidance has some potential for snow, with some maps showing heavy falls across parts of the inland south. The most likely outcome seems to be a slow-moving southward drifting frontal band that would see cold rain turning to sleet then snow in at least inland districts if not also the east and south coasts, the changeover coming first in Ulster on Friday evening and overnight, then through Saturday in Leinster and Connacht but delayed until Saturday night or Sunday in Munster. When the precipitation does change over it could produce 3 to 7 cms of snow on terrain above 100 metres and 1 to 3 cms lower down towards sea level. Some higher hilly parts of Wicklow, Waterford and other parts of the inland south could see 7 to 15 cms. But confidence in this scenario is moderate rather than high. There is also some chance of a heavier snowfall event (again, especially on higher terrain) if deeper low pressure forms in the frontal zone as shown in some guidance. On the other hand, a less robust push of colder air from the northeast might result in just scattered hill snows and mainly sleety rain in the frontal zone. Temperatures will definitely be quite cold, at least down to 3 or 4 C except for 7-9 C in parts of coastal west Munster. And there is potential for even colder temperatures developing if snow does fall over large portions of the country.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Frosty by Monday and early Tuesday, then turning considerably milder (10 to 12 C) in strong southwest winds, intervals of rain, and back to a rather variable and at times windy regime with frequent variations in temperature.

Over in BRITAIN the outcome will be generally similar with the cold fronts massing over Scotland on Friday before pushing south and west across the rest of Britain and Ireland. Snow would therefore come and go earlier in the weekend further north in Britain and a deeper cold may develop over portions of eastern Scotland and northeast England where lows could reach -5 C in some parts after heavy falls of snow.

The eastern U.S. will see further snowfalls after Monday's 10-20 cm snowstorm in New England which has now become a 20-30 cm near blizzard in Nova Scotia. The new snowfall will come from slowly developing low pressure near eastern Virginia drifting northeast up the coast in tandem with decaying low pressure over the Great Lakes region. Both systems will merge into a widespread patchy light snow event that may eventually manage to drop 5 to 15 cms in some areas. Much colder air is moving south into the central third of the U.S. from central Canada where it is near -20 C. But the far west is very mild to record warm. Monday, the town of North Bend, Oregon on the central coast had an astonishing high of 28 C. It was in the 12-17 C range over much of the region with sunshine and this will repeat today (and that includes my local weather with a high of 13 recorded here on Monday and 16 predicted for today).

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 10 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for icy roads in parts of south Connacht and other central inland counties this morning and for the next several mornings, drive with caution as there may be black ice conditions.


TODAY ... A bright start to the day for much of the country, but sleety light rain over parts of west Munster which will likely mix with snow over higher terrain (over 250 metres). This will tend to become more showery as it moves further east so amounts will reduce from 5-8 mm in parts of Kerry and Cork to perhaps 2-5 mm in the inland southeast later. Further north, just a few isolated and short-lived wintry showers possible, winds generally light to moderate west to northwest 30-50 km/hr. Highs 4-7 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, very cold inland with ice and some freezing fog possible, lows -4 to -1 C. Coastal and larger urban areas will perhaps escape the frost with lows of 1 or 2 C.

THURSDAY ... Another generally bright and cold day with highs 4-7 C. Isolated wintry showers and chance of more prolonged sleety rain, snow on hills for parts of the inland southwest.

FRIDAY ... Another sharp frost in central and northern areas, lows -4 to -1 C but somewhat milder due to cloud across the south, lows -1 to +3 C. Munster and south Leinster could see mixed falls of rain, sleet and hill snow with highs only 3-6 C. Further north, brighter in general, just a few isolated wintry showers, highs 2-5 C. Winds may be rather strong easterly near the south coast as a deep low passes offshore -- if this were to move further north then snow potential would be larger and more widespread.

SATURDAY ... Mixed falls of rain, sleet and snow across parts of central and inland southern counties, rain more likely near coasts, but potential for 5-10 cms of snow especially on higher terrain in parts of Leinster, 2-5 cms in a few parts of Munster and isolated slight coatings in Connacht and Ulster. Cold with
moderate northeast winds, lows of -1 to +2 C and highs of 3 to 6 C although sharper frosts may develop in a few parts of the inland north.

SUNDAY ... Windy and very cold with passing wintry showers, winds becoming northerly 40-60 km/hr in some eastern counties, northwest 50-70 km/hr in Atlantic coastal counties. There is potential for some heavier bands of snow to develop but many areas will probably remain almost dry. Highs 2-6 C.

MONDAY will continue quite cold with potential for some lingering frost after lows of -6 to -2 C, highs may reach 4 C in some areas.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will become considerably milder in a southwesterly flow, some rain will develop and winds southwest 50-80 km/hr. Highs 9-12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for more variations in temperature with brief mild spells and much colder days in between, probably lasting for about a week.

See yesterday's forecast for a few thoughts about the pattern for BRITAIN, same thinking applies today. They also have some chance of locally heavy snowfalls especially on hilly terrain depending on the exact track of Friday's low and the set-up of frontal boundaries on the weekend.

My local weather on Tuesday was freakishly warm, with sunshine and highs in the 16-18 C range. Once again there were record highs all up and down the west coast and nearby valleys. This will gradually fade to cloud and light rain as the ridge responsible moves a bit further east. Meanwhile, the east coast had hit or miss wet snow and some sleet on Tuesday and this may continue today, amounts have been generally small with little disruption but parts of Pennsylvania had almost 25 cms. Eastern Canada is digging out from a heavier snowfall from the previous storm which is now moving out into the Atlantic past Newfoundland to become the low we are closely watching for Friday. This is currently expected to head east without gaining much if any latitude (little known fact but eastern Newfoundland is actually a good bit south of the latitude of even Cornwall, more like that of the Loire valley). If the track is far enough south, the overspreading of moisture will be the limiting factor for snowfall in Ireland. If the track is a lot further north, then it becomes too mild in many areas. The critical track for best results in terms of a snowfall event would be just off the south coast by 25-50 miles.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 11 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

The situation developing for the weekend has some of the ingredients for a significant snowfall but various elements remain marginal and so rather than an ALERT for widespread snow, at this point the call is for isolated heavy snowfalls on hills and from isolated streamers in northeast winds. It should be noted that it would only take a slight change in the interaction of cold air to the northeast with moisture across the south to bring heavier and more widespread snowfalls into the forecast, so I am keeping a close eye on developments.


TODAY ... Bright and cold for most, but outbreaks of light, sleety rain in the southwest and southeast, which could turn to snow on higher terrain. Some patchy ice fog and frost in central and inland southeast counties. Highs 4-7 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast with sleety light rain in south, clear intervals and frosty in north. Lows 1-3 C south, -3 to zero C north.

FRIDAY ... Occasional light rain or sleet in parts of south, snow on hills. Mainly dry with a few sunny intervals further north but also isolated wintry showers. Highs 4-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Early morning rain or sleet across the south will probably change to heavy wet snow over higher ground (250 m above sea level), with raw east winds 40-60 km/hr near south coast. This mixed precipitation will fragment to wintry showers, then another area of sleety rain will edge towards west Munster. Central counties will experience mixed falls of sleet and wet snow, too early to say whether significant accumulations will occur. Northern counties will remain dry much of the day, but with isolated wintry showers. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 2 to 6 C.

SUNDAY ... Continued very cold with risk of wintry showers or localized snow streamers in northeast to north winds 40-70 km/hr. Lows -3 to +1 C and highs 2 to 5 C. Here again, specific forecasts for snow accumulation would be very uncertain at this point, but hills in eastern counties appear to be more at risk than most other places, as well as some higher parts of Connacht.

MONDAY ... Sharp frosts followed by sunshine through increasing high cloud, some persistent freezing fog, lows -6 to -2 C and highs 3 to 7 C.

TUESDAY ... Another frost in eastern counties, becoming overcast preventing frost further west, then becoming much milder in strong southwest winds, rain to follow, highs 8-12 C.

OUTLOOK ... The pattern may then revert to a colder regime with some chance of snow in eastern counties towards the end of the week. This second cold spell could last a few days but the last few days of February will probably become milder again.

For BRITAIN, most of the above sequence will apply especially in southern regions, parts of Scotland will be colder at times and could see some heavy falls of snow this weekend.

Over the eastern U.S., much colder air is filtering in behind the remnants of a dying long-duration low that has taken about a week to cross the Great Lakes region but is now being pulled into the circulation of an Atlantic low. This much colder air will be reinforced on the weekend by a strong arctic high now forming over north central Canada. Meanwhile the western third of the continent will remain very mild with occasional rain confined to coastal regions. My local weather on Wednesday turned cloudy with some rain at times but it was quite mild again with a high of 13 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 12 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, any bright intervals would be brief and confined to the north central counties. Scattered outbreaks of light rain turning to sleet on higher terrain, some light snow possible on upper slopes. Despite this activity some places will have long dry intervals too. Continued rather cold with highs in the north and central counties 4-7 C, south 5-8 C. Typical rainfall amounts will be 3-7 mm.

TONIGHT ... Some clearing, sleety showers becoming more isolated although also more wintry, some scattered frost and ice in central counties where lows could drop to about -2 C. Elsewhere cloud will hold lows just above freezing.

SATURDAY ... Early morning rain or sleet across the south will probably change to heavy wet snow over higher ground (250 m above sea level), with raw east winds 40-60 km/hr near south coast. This mixed precipitation will fragment to wintry showers, then another area of sleety rain will edge towards west Munster. Central counties will experience mixed falls of sleet and wet snow, some higher terrain could see 1-3 cms. Northern counties except for Donegal and some nearby parts of west Ulster and north Connacht will remain dry much of the day with isolated wintry showers. Cold with highs 3 to 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Continued very cold with risk of wintry showers or localized snow streamers in northeast to north winds 40-70 km/hr. Lows -3 to +1 C and highs 2 to 5 C. Here again, specific forecasts for snow accumulation would be very uncertain at this point, but hills in eastern counties appear to be more at risk than most other places, as well as some higher parts of Connacht.

MONDAY ... Sharp frosts followed by sunshine through increasing high cloud, some persistent freezing fog, lows -6 to -2 C and highs 3 to 7 C.

TUESDAY ... Another frost in eastern counties, lows near -3 C but becoming overcast preventing frost further west, temperatures rising towards morning there, and then becoming much milder especially in western counties in strong southwest winds (60-90 km/hr), rain to follow, highs 8-12 C (not until evening for Ulster and parts of Leinster).

WEDNESDAY will turn a bit colder again with some light rain or showers, then THURSDAY will be windy and quite cold (westerly winds 50-80 km/hr) with scattered wintry showers. By FRIDAY and the following weekend milder air seems likely to return, although there could be a slight chill in parts of the southeast where colder nights are possible under clearer skies than other regions.

Most of the above applies to BRITAIN also, but Scotland will generally be colder with more frequent snow at least on higher ground in central regions. Sunday could see some active snow streamers over both the North Sea and Irish Sea and of course some of those could hit the east coast of Ireland although they may contain sleet and hail more than snow at lower elevations. If there is going to be any heavy snow around this weekend, it seems most likely to be on the north to northeast facing slopes of the Dublin and Wicklow mountains and possibly in a few higher parts of Mayo and Donegal. However, there is a slight chance of revisions to all forecasts if colder air arrives before the moisture sources dry up.

Eastern and central North America are now turning very cold with mostly dry conditions but light snow near frontal boundaries in the south central states. It will remain quite mild in the west. My local weather on Thursday was overcast with occasional light rain and a high of 11 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 13 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Overcast with outbreaks of rain, generally light to moderate with 10 to 15 mm but possibly heavy at times in west Munster (15-25 mm). Some sleet will begin to mix in by afternoon on higher terrain with snow on summits, then the sleet and snow layers could move a bit lower by evening as slightly colder temperatures develop. Morning temperatures will be 5 or 6 C for most then afternoon and evening temperatures 3 to 5 C. Winds will gradually back from southeast to east-northeast 30-50 km/hr. Fog due to low cloud ceilings over higher terrain.

TONIGHT ... Rain or sleet may change to snow above 250m above sea level, as temperatures continue to drift lower, reaching 1 or 2 C by morning. Some clearing is possible in central Ulster where lows could reach -2 C with icy roads in higher locations such as the Glenshane Pass. Snow may become heavy on some higher terrain especially between Dublin and Wexford.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, windy and cold in the north, overcast with mixed precipitation in the south. There may be an interval of heavy wet snow at fairly low elevations but hills will more certainly see a coating of 3-5 cms. Later on some mixed sleety showers could feed in from the Irish Sea and in north Mayo from Donegal Bay. Snow could fall on higher terrain but lower down it's more likely to be hail or sleet. Very cold with highs 3-6 C and feeling closer to -1 C due to northeast winds 40-70 km/hr. To summarize, the conditions will range from dry in about 20% of locations to wet (only rain) in about 50% with other places seeing hail, sleet or snow. Best bet for heavy snow would be higher parts of Dublin, Wicklow, the inland southeast and hills in Donegal and Mayo.

MONDAY ... Clear intervals and very cold during the early morning hours, wintry showers becoming very isolated near Wicklow coast and in parts of Connacht. Lows -5 to -2 C. Sunny and cold during the day, some increase in higher cloud across the west. Highs 3 to 7 C. Some persistent ice fog possible in central valleys. Winds light and variable most of the day, southerly 20-40 km/hr by late in the day in Atlantic coastal regions. The frost may return for part of Monday night in the east but it will remain frost free in the west as temperatures stall around 4 C then rise slowly.

TUESDAY ... Windy and much milder with periods of rain (15-25 mm), southwest winds 50-80 km/hr, and highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Colder in stages to Thursday, chance of a few mixed wintry showers in strong westerly winds. Then another pulse of very mild air will arrive for the following weekend.

BRITAIN will see widespread frosts and isolated heavy falls of snow but mostly sleety mixed precipitation where there is some, along with some dry intervals this weekend. Scotland will see more widespread snow showers and so will higher parts of northern England.

In NORTH AMERICA the eastern half of the continent will be very cold with a sleet or freezing rain storm expected in parts of the east central states by Monday. This may evolve into a snowstorm for the inland northeast on Tuesday with coastal rain. But before that develops it will be very cold this weekend (highs only -10 to -15 C). Milder air over the west will hold off this cold air mass then push in slowly when it moves further east. My local weather on Friday started with torrential rain and eerily dark skies well after sunrise, but it quickly cleared up with spring-like sunshine and highs near 13 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 14 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Windy and very cold with some streamers in central Leinster likely to spread further south, bringing mixed falls of rain, hail and (later) snow with the risk of thunder. Snow could fall briefly near sea level later on, and it could come down heavily for short periods, but accumulations of 3-7 cms are only likely on higher ground in Dublin and Wicklow. Further away from the Irish Sea, a few decaying remnants of these streamers could still bring mixed wintry showers in moderately strong northeast winds of 40-70 km/hr. A separate area of mixed streamers could develop from the open Atlantic into Donegal, Mayo and those also may reach other counties. Heavy snow could develop on higher hills in all regions and climbing could be quite hazardous due to the wind chills and wintry precipitation. Highs will reach 4-6 C but temperatures could fall to 1-3 C during heavier showers, and wind chill values will be close to -4 C. Some sunny intervals are possible especially in parts of the south.

TONIGHT ... A few remnant streamers could persist to about 0300h but they will tend to curl away from the east coast eventually as winds turn more to the north. It will be partially clear for most regions and very cold with lows of -5 to -2 C in almost all locations, only the north coasts of Ulster and Mayo are likely to see much warming effects of the 8-10 C waters offshore, lows will perhaps be held to 1 or 2 C. Winds gradually decreasing but quite gusty near east coast and northwest coasts (north 40-60 km/hr until after midnight).

MONDAY ... Sunny with increasing cloud from the west, light winds for part of the day in Leinster and east Ulster, slowly increasing southerly breezes further west. Morning frosts from lows -5 to -2 C could persist well into the middle of the day in sheltered spots, but eventually temperatures will reach 4-7 C in the east, and 7-9 C in the west.

TUESDAY ... Rain from early morning in west, developing gradually mid-day in the east. Becoming rather windy and much milder. Lows -2 to +2 C east, temperatures rising during the early morning in the west to 7 C, then highs reaching 8 C east and 11 C west. About 10-15 mm rain in west will likely become patchy further east with 3-7 mm. Winds southerly 50-80 km/hr.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Colder mid-week with passing wintry showers and highs only 3-7 C. Then milder towards the end of the week, until about Monday 22nd, highs near 10 C for several days. Another variable period will follow with winds mainly from a westerly direction and often stronger than 50 km/hr although nothing too severe is expected.

Over in BRITAIN the North Sea is also producing a few streamers with mixed results on land today from about Aberdeen to Hull, otherwise a generally bright but very cold day with a few remnant hail or snow showers further inland.

In the eastern U.S. and Canada it is bitterly cold this weekend with some record lows in a few places, readings of -30 C in rural parts of the inland northeast and Great Lakes region overnight, around -15 C daytime. There are some snow squalls from the still rather warm Great Lakes (they are 2-3 deg warmer than February normals and not much ice on any of them as a result of the very mild December and rather mild January). Out west it remains very mild. My local weather on Saturday was overcast with bursts of heavy rain that deterred me from golfing (no doubt a blessing of some kind). It was mild enough at 12 C.

dacogawa

M.T.'s forecast didn't post here for some reason so here it is (copied & pasted)

Monday, 15 February, 2016
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... The current sharp to severe frost will take several hours to clear away in many locations, watch for black ice especially in any areas that saw hail or snow yesterday. The day will turn out mostly sunny at least in the eastern two-thirds of the country, with increasing cloud from the west, light winds for part of the day in Leinster and east Ulster, slowly increasing southerly breezes further west. and eventually temperatures will reach 4-7 C in the east, and 7-9 C in the west.

TONIGHT ... Cold for the first half of the night in eastern counties, lows then falling to -3 C, but temperatures rising towards dawn with any frost gradually dissipating, however, watch for slippery roads in north Leinster and east Ulster in the morning. Further west temperatures will fall only to 1 or 2 C then start rising slowly towards 7 C by morning. A light rain will develop by dawn in Atlantic coastal counties.

TUESDAY ... Rain from early morning in west, developing gradually mid-day in the east. Becoming rather windy and much milder. Lows -2 to +2 C east, temperatures rising during the early morning in the west to 7 C, then highs reaching 8 C east and 11 C west. About 15-20 mm rain in west will likely become somewhat lighter further east with 7-12 mm. Winds southerly 50-80 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Turning much colder early in the morning and any showers may then become sleety or wintry. Moderate westerly winds and temperatures steady 3-5 C.

THURSDAY ... Cold and windy with passing wintry showers, morning lows about -2 C and highs only 4 to 7 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY will bring a much milder interval with some dry spells in the south, frequent light rain in the north, and moderate westerly winds, highs each day 11-13 C.

NEXT WEEK is looking colder again, with a fairly rapid drop in temperatures on Monday to 3-7 C, wintry showers will return to the picture.

Today in BRITAIN, northerly winds will continue on the east coast and will drive wintry showers and some heavy snow showers inland some distance, but otherwise it will be partly cloudy and very cold although frost has been more limited in southern England. There are a few pockets of intense cold over snow cover in northern England and central Scotland. Beyond today trends will be fairly similar although most regions will have one more frosty night tonight.

The eastern U.S. and the Ottawa-Montreal area of eastern Canada will be bracing for snow followed by freezing rain and a partial thaw by tonight or tomorrow, as the intense cold is pushed into far eastern Canada. About 5 cms of snow is likely before the change, but the freezing rain may be the more disruptive element, flights into major east coast airports late today and tomorrow could be delayed. Dry and cold in central regions with mild, sometimes wet conditions in the far west, although very warm and dry in the desert southwest (highs near 30 C in Phoenix recently). My local weather on Sunday was foggy and drizzly with a high near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thanks dacogawa, I must have block copied my reply as I often do in case it doesn't post properly but then got distracted for a minute and went over to post on the IWO facebook page where you found the above, not realizing I had not pressed post. Then my computer goes into sleep mode when I do, and it reboots during the night at some point while doing the security checks ... good thing there were no big revisions of earlier forecast anyway.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 16 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


My apologies for the mixup yesterday, the previous post explains what happened there, and thanks again to Dacogawa for taking the trouble to post the forecast.


TODAY ... Windy and milder with occasional rain, a further 10-15 mm possible in parts of the west, 5-10 more likely elsewhere. Southerly winds will veer southwesterly 70-110 km/hr, strongest gusts near west and south coasts. Highs about 10 or 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Turning colder again with a few more showers mainly in Connacht and west Munster, squally at times but winds moderating later to westerly 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows 2-5 C.

WEDNESDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine with passing showers, a few of which could contain hail and thunder, becoming wintry on higher ground. Highs 5-8 C. Winds westerly 50-70 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Continued quite cold and windy with passing wintry showers, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr, morning lows -1 to +2 C and highs 5-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, turning a bit milder with occasional light rain mostly in north. Lows 2-5 C and highs 8-11 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... It seems likely to remain mild although some guidance brings in colder air for Sunday in Connacht and Ulster. Highs will probably be near 12 C on Saturday and we'll say 9 to 11 C Sunday in case there is a bit of a cooling trend, although 12-13 C in the south remains possible.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Windy and turning much colder on Monday with chance of snow showers in a brisk northwest wind, highs only 3-6 C. After a slight moderation on Tuesday, another cold spell will follow and it looks rather cold right through Leap Year Day. This cold weather may be mainly dry with sharp to severe frosts when high pressure crests over Ireland around Thursday.

The east coast of the U.S. will be shaking off some nasty sleet and freezing rain about mid-day in favour of rain and milder temperatures (10-13 C) but airport delays may persist for a while. The storm centre is near Pittsburgh PA at this time, heading for Montreal. Anywhere north of that track could see a heavy snowfall today (20-40 cms in eastern Ontario and north of Montreal, freezing rain heavy at times near the track). Meanwhile it remains wet and mild in the far west, my weather on Monday was overcast with fog and drizzle or rain, and the high was 12 C.

Now let's see if I can remember to send this today.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 17 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine with passing showers, a few of which could contain hail and thunder, becoming wintry except near sea level. Highs 5-8 C. Winds westerly 50-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, isolated wintry showers, some frost likely with lows -2 to +2 C.

THURSDAY ... Continued quite cold and windy with passing wintry showers, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr, and highs 5-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, turning a bit milder with occasional light rain mostly in north. Lows 2-5 C and highs 8-11 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy and mild, some dry intervals in south but frequent showers or intervals of rain central and north, highs near 12 C south and 8 C in the north. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will be windy and colder, except that the southeast may retain a bit of warmth to mid-day Sunday. Highs there could reach 8-10 C but otherwise temperatures will stall around 4-6 C on Sunday as showers become increasingly mixed and wintry. Then Monday will continue this theme only with stronger northwest winds developing. A mixture of cloud and sunshine with passing showers, a few of which could contain hail and thunder, becoming wintry on higher ground. Highs 5-8 C. Winds westerly 50-70 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Continued quite cold and windy with passing wintry showers, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr, morning lows -1 to +2 C and highs 5-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, turning a bit milder with occasional light rain mostly in north. Lows 2-5 C and highs 8-11 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... It seems likely to remain mild although some guidance brings in colder air for Sunday in Connacht and Ulster. Highs will probably be near 12 C on Saturday and we'll say 9 to 11 C Sunday in case there is a bit of a cooling trend, although 12-13 C in the south remains possible. There is a possibility of some quite heavy snow showers in the west and north on Sunday spreading further east by Sunday night, and redeveloping on Monday when highs will only reach 3 to 7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Guidance is rather mixed, if we average it out it looks like this -- slightly milder mid-week, highs 7-9 C, some rain developing, then windy and colder late in the week, winds turning northerly or northeasterly, slight risk of east coast snow streamers, and quite cold right through the final weekend of the month and Leap Year Day (which is a Monday).

This colder scenario will be if anything more pronounced for Britain as some of the days with northeast winds could have stronger gusts there. But in general it will be the same regime, a bit colder than normal overall, perhaps preventing this from beating out 1868-69 as the mildest winter on record -- that winter had nothing on December 2015 but January 1869 beat this January by quite a wide margin and it looks like February 1869 might repeat that. It does seem fairly certain that if this winter missed the top spot, it would easily finish second. It will be interesting to discover whether Ireland's winter beats an existing record, as well as how far back that might extend (in the case of Central England it goes way, way back to 1659).

The snowstorm we discussed for eastern Ontario and upstate New York hit and produced 55 cm of snow near Rochester, NY and similar amounts near Ottawa. It was mostly freezing rain in Montreal and straight rain further south, with temperatures rebounding as much as 45 Celsius degrees in Vermont (from -32 to +13) over the past two days. This storm has now moved into Labrador and will be southwest of Greenland by tonight. Meanwhile, the west remains very mild, and today the sun came out for a while boosting temperatures to near 14 C.

Please note, my forecast may be a bit late appearing on Thursday morning, I won't be "in the office" so to speak until after 0930h due to travel plans.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 18 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY will remain cold with a few passing wintry showers, some sunshine especially eastern counties, highs 3-7 C.

TONIGHT will see increasing cloud and still a slight risk of wintry showers, lows about 1 to 3 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will be milder days generally with occasional light rain and highs near 12 C in the south, 8 C in the north.

SUNDAY will begin to turn colder with temperatures falling to 2-4 C in the northwest, 8 C southeast by afternoon. There will be some snow showers by late afternoon and evening in Connacht and Ulster.

MONDAY will also be breezy and cold, highs 2-5 C, some snow showers possible but mostly over higher parts of northwest.

OUTLOOK ... Slightly milder mid-week, but back to rather cold and windy, possibly sleety or a rain-snow mix by Thursday and Friday of next week.

My weather experience on Wednesday was quite interesting as I had to make a road trip south, quite variable conditions from warm sunshine one place to very heavy rain near Portland, high overcast other spots, and quite warm for mid-February, about 13-17 C most of the time. Back home now and it's foggy and drizzly with 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 19 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, long dry intervals but a few light showers mainly in western counties, milder with highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, mild, rain developing in west. Lows 5-8 C.

SATURDAY ... Periods of rain will be heavier in central counties where 10-20 mm possible, while somewhat cooler in north (8-10 C) it will remain mild further south at 11-13 C. Moderate southwest winds at times.

SUNDAY ... Connacht and west Ulster will begin to turn colder with rain showers turning sleety then wintry, snow on hills by evening, temperatures there falling from 7 C to about 1-3 C. Other regions will turn slightly colder after mid-day starting with morning temperatures of 8-11 C and ending up around 5-7 C with a few rain showers (5-10 mm) trending further south. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr veering northwest by evening.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be quite cold with the risk of snow on higher terrain especially north and west, windy at times (northwest 50-80 km/hr) and highs only 4-7 C with slight frosts in some inland locations each morning.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat milder midweek with intervals of rain, becoming a wintry mixture towards Thursday morning in parts of the southwest as colder air wraps around low pressure areas near the east coast, intermittent cold rain elsewhere. Even colder towards end of the month with sharp frosts developing, some sunny intervals by day and highs only 2-5 C while lows fall to about -4 C.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with a few intervals of light rain and highs near 8 C. It continues to be colder in eastern North America where arctic high pressure near upstate New York controls the pattern, some snow developing in the upper Great Lakes along weak warm fronts there.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 20 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rather mild and breezy, highs 11-13 C, with persistent rain in some counties between Galway-Clare and Dublin-Wicklow, where 20-30 mms could be recorded; eventually some of this heavier rain will appear closer to the south coast as well. Further north, it will be occasional light rain with somewhat cooler temperatures (8-10 C). Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Further light rain (5-10 mm) and mild, lows 7-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Colder air will gradually push into Connacht and west Ulster but it will remain mild to late afternoon elsewhere with highs 10-12 C. Temperatures will fall slowly to about 5 C in the northwest. Occasional rain may produce a few heavier bursts in the southeast at times, and late in the day showers may become mixed and wintry on higher ground in the north and west, as winds veer more to northwest by evening.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be generally dry but very cold days with sharp frosts (lows -4 to -1 C) and cool highs of 4-7 C under partly cloudy to sunny skies. There could be a few isolated wintry showers mainly wherever north to northeast winds come inland.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will be marginally milder but with more moisture in the lower levels, outbreaks of sleet or rain could develop, lows 1-3 C and highs 5-8 C.

OUTLOOK for FRIDAY, WEEKEND and LEAP YEAR DAY ... This period is indicated to be quite cold on almost all guidance, but with somewhat different details. The general theme seems to be gradual development of strong low pressure south of Ireland in the Biscay region, turning winds increasingly to a northeasterly direction. It is probably too early to speculate on details but some isolated sleet or snow could develop in this pattern, despite the generally dry nature of the cold air mass in place. Temperatures seem likely to run several degrees below late February normals, with highs only 3 to 7 C, and the risk of sharp frosts. It could turn slightly milder eventually, but towards the end of the month guidance splits into two rather different outcomes, one milder and one colder.

The above scenario also applies to most of BRITAIN, but it can be assumed that Scotland will run a bit colder most of the time.

My local weather on Friday was showery with a high near 11 C. The pattern across most of the continent is mild, with the east coast slowly warming up now as well. A fairly significant storm will develop early next week in the southern plains states but for the next three days nothing very active is happening except far to the north of most populated areas. Near the end of February, record cold temperatures can be expected to push south from central Canada.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 21 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, breezy and mild in south and east, but turning gradually colder in north and west. Occasional light rain may give 2-5 mm in some areas. Highs 10-12 C except where temperatures begin to fall off in north Connacht and west Ulster this afternoon, around 6 C by early evening there.

TONIGHT ... The colder trend will accelerate and sweep through other regions quickly, then one or two wintry showers may develop but otherwise the cold air should be fairly dry with frost developing and some icy sections of roads encountered in northwest. Lows -2 to +2 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be bright and cold with isolated wintry showers, at least some sunny intervals, and highs each day near 5 or 6 C. Tuesday morning will bring a sharp frost with lows -4 to +1 C.

WEDNESDAY will see somewhat greater risk of snow showers in northern counties but will otherwise remain dry and cold with some sunshine further south, morning lows -4 to +1 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

THURSDAY could bring a slight rise in temperature for Munster and coastal Connacht, with highs of 8 or 9 C, but probably not elsewhere though as highs remain in the 5-7 C range. Rain is likely to develop close to the west coast and could spread into some coastal fringes.

FRIDAY to MONDAY (26 to 29 Feb) will be cold with east to northeast winds and some risk of coastal snow showers. Current guidance indicates a higher risk of snow in eastern Britain and we need to be on alert in case this trends further west, but for now the outlook is basically cold and dry with continued highs in the 5-8 C range and at least some frosts each night although cloud may prevent it near some coasts.

As mentioned, this pattern could bring higher chances of snow in Britain but otherwise a cold, dry theme will prevail there also, after today's very mild weather (highs of 11-13 C are expected in southern England today).

My local weather on Saturday turned out fairly pleasant, partly cloudy with highs near 9 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 22 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy, dry in many places but some passing showers mainly in western and northern counties, some becoming wintry on higher terrain. Amounts rather slight (1-3 mm). Colder with some moderate northwest winds at times, highs 5-8 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, very cold, with a full moon. Lows -4 to +1 C. Some frost and icy roads in a few places, the low humidity may prevent some frost despite low enough temperatures.

TUESDAY will be bright and cold with isolated wintry showers, at least some sunny intervals, and highs near 5 or 6 C.

WEDNESDAY will see somewhat greater risk of snow showers in northern counties but will otherwise remain dry and cold with some sunshine further south, morning lows -4 to +1 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

THURSDAY could bring a slight rise in temperature for Munster and coastal Connacht, with highs of 8 or 9 C, but probably not elsewhere though as highs remain in the 5-7 C range. Rain is likely to develop close to the west coast and could spread into some coastal fringes.

FRIDAY will continue quite cold and some rain near west Munster coasts could turn to sleet or snow inland over hills. Most other regions will be partly cloudy with isolated wintry showers but there is also a chance of a more organized trough bringing mixed wintry precipitation in central counties. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 4 to 8 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Cold with a slight chance of sleet or snow showers in east to northeast winds. Temperatures colder than normal values, lows near freezing and highs near 7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Gradually turning somewhat milder, winds turning more to southwest for a few days, but another cold spell seems likely to follow after a few days.

My local weather on Sunday was mostly cloudy with a few intervals of rather heavy rain but clearing during the past few hours, highs near 9 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 23 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... will be bright and cold with isolated wintry showers, these more likely in Connacht and west Ulster, and for most places there will be at least some sunny intervals, and highs near 5 or 6 C. Northerly breezes 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, very cold, lows -5 to +1 C. Some sharp frosts and possible icy roads. Wintry showers may continue near northwestern coasts but mostly over inland hills.

WEDNESDAY will see somewhat greater risk of snow showers in northern counties and 1-3 cms could coat some hills in Ulster, but the day will otherwise remain dry and cold with some sunshine further south, with highs between 5 and 8 C.

THURSDAY will begin frosty in parts of the north and east with morning lows of -5 to -1 C, increased cloud may prevent frost in west and south but lows will be close to zero there, then the day could bring a slight rise in temperature for Munster and coastal Connacht, with highs of 8 or 9 C, but probably not elsewhere though as highs remain in the 5-7 C range. Rain is likely to develop close to the west coast and could spread into some coastal fringes. Further inland it could become sleety with snow on hills in west-central and south-central counties. It is more likely to remain dry with a little sunshine at times in east Ulster and north Leinster.

FRIDAY will continue quite cold and some rain near west Munster coasts could turn to sleet or snow inland over hills. Most other regions will be partly cloudy with isolated wintry showers but there is also a chance that a more organized trough will bring mixed wintry precipitation in central counties. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 4 to 8 C. Risk of 2-5 cm snow on some hills. Cold northerly winds will redevelop in western half of the country by afternoon.

SATURDAY will continue very cold, morning lows -6 to -2 C, and highs about 3 to 7 C with raw northeast winds and the risk of some snow showers coming inland from Irish Sea, possibly mixing with sleet. Winds northeast 40-70 km/hr will add quite a chill (feeling closer to -1 C).

SUNDAY will be less windy although just about as cold, with sharp frosts, lows of -6 to -2 C, highs 5 to 9 C (warmest in west Munster), and more frequent sunny intervals as well as more limited coverage of wintry showers, in fact it is likely to remain dry in many places.

MONDAY will become milder in southwest winds, with the risk of some heavy rain developing towards evening, persisting into Tuesday (1st of March), and temperatures will briefly rise to about 9 or 10 C in most regions.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rain tapering to showers then windy and much colder again, mixed wintry showers mid-week with temperatures barely into 3-5 C range daytime, eventually another sharp frost then gradually milder.

Most of the above applies to BRITAIN except that there could be more widespread snow showers around Friday to Sunday especially in eastern counties south of about Newcastle.

Over the central U.S., a spring-like storm is forming over the Gulf states and could lead to some severe thunderstorms around Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. Further north, rain moving north will start to turn to snow near Chicago and Detroit by late tonight and Wednesday. It will be rather mild on the east coast (near 10 C) and continued mild in the far west. My local weather on Monday was sunny with cloudy intervals, isolated showers nearby and a high of 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 24 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Another very cold morning, with frost slow to clear in some sheltered spots, widespread sunshine later with just a few light snow or sleet showers in parts of Ulster and north Connacht where 1-3 cms could coat some hills by mid-day, with highs between 5 and 8 C for most, 2 to 5 C in higher parts of the north.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, very cold for most, increasing cloud near southwest coasts. Lows for most -5 to -1 C, but around zero to +2 C near some southern and western coasts.

THURSDAY will begin frosty in parts of the north and east with morning lows of -5 to -1 C, increased cloud may prevent frost in west and south but lows will be close to zero there, then the day could bring a slight rise in temperature for Munster and coastal Connacht, with highs of 8 or 9 C, but probably not elsewhere though as highs remain in the 5-7 C range. Rain is likely to develop close to the west coast and could spread into some coastal fringes. Further inland it could become sleety with snow on hills in west-central and south-central counties. It is more likely to remain dry with a little sunshine at times in east Ulster and north Leinster.

FRIDAY will continue quite cold and some rain near west Munster coasts could turn to sleet or snow inland over hills. Most other regions will be partly cloudy with isolated wintry showers but there is also a chance that a more organized trough will bring mixed wintry precipitation in central counties. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 4 to 8 C. Risk of 2-5 cm snow on some hills although latest indications suggest cold rain or sleet below 250m above sea level. Cold northerly winds will redevelop in western half of the country by evening or overnight.

SATURDAY will continue very cold, morning lows -6 to -2 C, and highs about 3 to 7 C with raw northeast winds and the risk of some snow showers coming inland from Irish Sea, possibly mixing with sleet. Winds northeast 40-70 km/hr will add quite a chill (feeling closer to -1 C).

SUNDAY will be less windy although just about as cold, with sharp frosts, lows of -6 to -2 C, highs 5 to 9 C (warmest in west Munster), and more frequent sunny intervals as well as more limited coverage of wintry showers, in fact it is likely to remain dry in many places.

MONDAY will become milder in southwest winds, with the risk of some heavy rain developing across parts of the west, ending overnight into early morning of Tuesday (1st of March), as temperatures briefly rise to about 9 or 10 C in most regions.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rain tapering to showers then windy and colder again, mixed wintry showers mid-week and again near the end of the week after some variable conditions, with temperatures by the end of the week (around the 4th to 5th of March) barely into 4-6 C range daytime, bringing another sharp frost.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and cool with a high of 9 C. Rain is spreading north towards the Great Lakes region overnight and will turn to heavy snow in St Louis, Chicago and other parts of the Midwest. Severe storms have been quite active on Tuesday and may redevelop in the Ohio valley and southeastern states today.