Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

^^ Much appreciated, unlike the following events unfolding below ... ^^

Tuesday, 2 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for very strong wind gusts late afternoon into the evening hours from storm "Eleanor" in most southern and central counties, details may not be nailed down until just before this begins as it's a fast-developing frontal wave still quite a distance off to the west and in an early stage of development now. Forecast will give details but peak gusts could be 110 km/hr to 130 km/hr depending on how it intensifies. Look for an update around 3-4 p.m.

TODAY ... Morning rain should soon be moving off to the east, followed by some sunny breaks and moderate southwest winds 40-70 km/hr, rather mild with highs around 11 C. Heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms will move rapidly into all regions by early to mid afternoon, and winds are expected to increase to southwesterly 90 to 110 km/hr and possibly some local gusts to 130 km/hr which could produce tree damage or scattered power outages.

TONIGHT ... Very windy for the first part of the overnight period (southwest to west 90 to 130 km/hr) with a few squally showers, then winds easing somewhat after midnight with occasional light rain and some hail possible, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr. Lows 3 to 6 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Continued rather windy with occasional rain, some wintry showers possible in higher parts of north and west, highs 6 to 8 C for most, 3 to 6 C north.

THURSDAY ... Outbreaks of rain, possible strong winds at times (although some guidance keeps a lot of this just off the south coast until a final bout that will more than likely produce strong gusts), winds westerly at 40-60 km/hr with some intervals gusting closer to 100 km/hr. Morning lows 2 to 4 C and afternoon highs about 8 to 10 C, but turning sharply colder especially in Connacht and Ulster later afternoon.

FRIDAY ... Windy and much colder, mixed rain and snow possible, some accumulations of snow in parts of the north and east, and further west on hills. Morning lows -1 to +2 C and afternoon highs only 2 to 6 C. Winds becoming northeast 40-70 km/hr.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Very cold with sharp frosts and limited thawing during the daytime hours, some icy roads likely to remain slippery much of the days, and lows of -5 to -2 C, highs zero to +4 C. Northeast winds continuing and still some chance of isolated wintry showers, snow on hills, although mostly a dry pattern.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There is growing uncertainty past Sunday of this coming weekend about how long it will stay cold and dry, it still may break down briefly late Monday with a sleety frontal passage, or it may stay cold and dry if high pressure wins the battle with Atlantic fronts. The trend beyond the possible sleet event is cold in any case so most of the coming week could be much colder than we've been seeing for the past few weeks.

My local weather on New Year's Day was partly cloudy and cold, around -4 C for our high, with some clear intervals by evening, so we had a great view of the full moon (as of 0225h today in Irish time). It's a perigeean full moon meaning that tides will be unusually high even without storm surge issues but west coast locations can expect some local flooding at high tides today and tomorrow, especially if those tides coincide with the stronger westerly winds predicted.

The east coast of the U.S. is still clear, cold and dry but a storm is forming east of Florida that may impact various parts of the east by late Wednesday into Thursday, and eastern Canada Thursday into Friday, with a blizzard-like storm that may range from severe white-out conditions in parts of New England to persistent light snow further west in very cold northerly winds. Further west it remains bitterly cold, the high on New Years' Day in Chicago was -17 C with a low near -23 C. In parts of western Canada, readings have been into the -30s overnight and struggling to reach -25 C daytime.

Much of Australia is warm and dry today but there are a few storms near Sydney and more widespread tropical monsoon storms in the north.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE for Storm "Eleanor" __ Tuesday 2 January 2018 __ 4 p.m.
__________________________________________________________

Small but powerful Storm Eleanor appears ready to blast in to central counties within the next hour or two. The developing centre can be seen on radar just west of Newport and will track east inland from there. Ocean buoy data from around 49N 16W confirm that strong winds are already underway south of the most intense portion of this storm, while the M6 buoy was recently gusting to 52 knots but the pressure wave passed them several hours back. No data yet to represent the current intensity but going by model guidance some very strong westerly winds are likely just to the south of its track this evening.

Expect this to produce a swath of damaging wind gusts to 125 km/hr in exposed areas from Clare and Galway Bay across to Louth, Meath and Dublin, also some distance into east Ulster. However outside of that swath further to the south local gusts could also reach 120 km/hr, although I think it may be less concentrated there.

North of the track of this rather small "meso-scale" low, winds will remain fairly light until 2-3 hours after it passes then will become moderate northwest 60-100 km/hr backing to west later. Some locally heavy rainfalls will continue in west Ulster and north Connacht with eventual 20-30 mm totals and some minor flooding.

Expect this to ramp up very quickly if in the path outlined, with winds veering rapidly from current southerly to WSW at height of windstorm. Duration of strongest winds will be 3-4 hours then a gradual reduction overnight. Onset in Galway and Clare will likely be as soon as 5 p.m. and towards the east coast around 8 p.m.

It is possible that another update will be issued after 6:30 p.m.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 3 January, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for continued strong and possibly damaging wind gusts, today more widely distributed throughout the country, and probably not quite as strong in those parts of Connacht that were hit with very strong winds yesterday evening, but in the range of 110 to 120 km/hr for top gusts almost anywhere that's well exposed to a westerly wind. Coastal flooding very likely especially at high tides on the west coast. Some lingering damage from yesterday may not yet be cleared either, so drive with extreme caution. The word is that this continues to be storm Eleanor, although one distinct low spun off yesterday and is now in the North Sea, a second one is perhaps twin sister Edith making her way slowly past north Ulster towards Scotland. This one has a little less dynamic energy and is more of a steady state affair so that it may be a case of relentless strong winds eventually doing damage rather than sudden gusts,
so watch for further damage to trees or infrastructure at a rather unpredictable pace here and there.

TODAY ... Very windy with passing squally showers containing some hail and thunder, winds westerly 80 to 120 km/hr in exposed areas, easing slightly by late afternoon. Highs 7 to 10 C. Feeling quite cold especially in higher parts of the west.

TONIGHT ... Winds easing, some rain at times, becoming rather heavy near the south coast. Lows 3 to 6 C but with any clearing further north there could be slight frost in places, followed by isolated sleety showers, so there's some chance of icy roads developing in a few parts of the inland north by morning.

THURSDAY ... There is a chance of a renewed spell of strong winds near the southwest coasts as yet another low passes just along that coastal strip, but its stronger winds may stay out to sea. The rest of the country should escape another round of very strong winds but could have moderate gusts at times with the trend being a slow turning from west to northwest then eventually northerly winds sometimes in the range of 40 to 70 km/hr, other times less windy than that. Some outbreaks of sleety rain later in the day could produce snow on hills. Temperatures will start out close to 8 or 9 C and end up closer to 4 C by evening.

FRIDAY ... It will continue to turn colder and mixed rain and snow is likely over higher inland districts, with a sleety cold rain near some coasts. There will be some minor areas of low pressure swirling around an upper level low so conditions may vary considerably from region to region, with the south at risk of some sleet or snow from one low's northern flank, and the north getting some mixed wintry showers from a second low's western flank. You will be saying flanks very much or maybe something entirely different as these lows fail to take any cues to push off. Temperatures will be steady 3 to 5 C and could fall even lower in any periods of wintry showers.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy with bands of mixed wintry showers feeding into Leinster and north Connacht from the Irish Sea and Atlantic. Some wintry sunshine may develop between these zones, and snow should be heavier on hills but could fall down to sea level at times in the shower bands. Winds northeast 50 to 70 km/hr will add quite a chill to temperatures already well down into the range of -1 to +4 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY are looking bitterly cold with severe frosts and limited daytime recovery, under mostly clear skies, with isolated wintry showers possible near east coast. Lows -6 to -2 C and highs -1 to +4 C. Monday may turn slightly milder in Munster as winds turn more to southeast. Otherwise, it will be more of the northeast winds with a Baltic feel.

TUESDAY could bring a mixed bag of sleet, snow and cold rain as fronts try to push this colder air back to the northeast, but run out of energy leading to a mixture of various kinds of precipitation, raw winds and temperatures not far from 3 or 4 C at best, except perhaps 7 to 9 C in west Munster.

The further outlook calls for more intervals of very cold weather for a few more days and it's really uncertain how long this cold spell might ultimately last, with no clear signs that the blocking will either break down or intensify, and the Atlantic getting plenty of energy from storms near North America, but these may end up circling around near Greenland rather than breaking through to Europe each time.

Meanwhile, my local weather was very cold again on Tuesday with a morning low of about -15 C and a high near -7 C, some sunshine despite patchy low cloud. The east coast of the U.S. and Canada are all bracing for the arrival of a very powerful blizzard late tonight and into Thursday. The storm is just now taking shape over Florida and is going to bring snow all the way from inland northern Florida to North Carolina, as well as the more typical areas for a nor'easter. This one threatens to drop to hurricane-like central pressures in the 940-950 mb range, and could drop up to 50 cms or more of wind-driven snow (New York City may be closer to 10-15 cm but Boston will get the full force as will most of New England, New Brunswick and other parts of eastern Canada. Bitter cold will be reinforced when this storm pulls down yet another slug of record cold from the high arctic.

The weather in most of Australia looks quite wonderful by comparison, with just a few storms near the north coast where very few people reside, so it's basically put another shrimp on the barbie and enjoy July, no they call it January, I'm still confused about Eleanor having two lives.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 4 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for very strong winds already in progress across parts of west Munster, spreading further east into central counties and eventually across to Dublin by this afternoon. Other parts of the south will also get quite windy but the system appears to be reorganizing so that the current strong gusts in Kerry and Cork may spread further north rather than heading east, before the eastward motion begins. Some gusts to 110 km/hr or higher are likely, isolated 130 km/hr possible, with scattered damage possible. This will be the last in this series of westerly wind storms and the next alert necessary may be for snowfall by Friday night.


TODAY ... Very windy at times this morning in west Munster, then from Clare east into the midlands and by afternoon into central Leinster. Westerly winds 80-120 km/hr may cause some scattered damage and disruption. A few showers but more persistent rain further north where it is not as windy, 5-15 mm likely there. Temperatures will remain steady around 8-11 C then fall off gradually later today as winds ease then turn more northerly.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, wintry showers possible, lows 1-3 C.

FRIDAY ... Outbreaks of rain, sleet or wet snow, some accumulations of snow possible on higher terrain, highs 4 to 6 C. Moderate northwest winds in some western and northern counties at times.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy with bands of wintry showers including some falls of snow in Leinster and north Connacht. More sunshine away from those bands, very cold, morning lows near -3 C and afternoon highs 2 to 6 C. Winds northeast 40 to 70 km/hr adding considerable chill.

SUNDAY and MONDAY are likely to be dry and very cold with some sunshine each day and sharp to severe frosts, icy roads will be likely especially secondary routes in rural areas. Morning lows -7 to -3 C and afternoon highs -1 to +4 C. Some intervals of light winds may promote ice fog, but later Monday a raw east to southeast wind will pick up to 40-60 km/hr.

MONDAY night into TUESDAY, the remnants of a powerful Atlantic storm will push towards Ireland but in a dying phase so that rain may not spread very far north or east of the Atlantic and south coasts, and could turn to sleet or snow further inland, as winds over most of the country become strong southeasterly. Temperatures are likely to remain quite cold (2-5 C) except in the milder southwest (7-10 C).

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for more rather cold and sometimes unsettled conditions but details at this point are rather uncertain. Much depends on the exact outcome of the developing superstorm off the east coast of the United States, if it heads a little more east than some guidance predicts, it may break through the cold block for a time, but if it heads more towards Greenland, it may reinforce that block.

My local weather on Wednesday was a welcome change, sunny and not as cold with mid-day temperatures around -1 C. Probably without 50 cms snow pack, we might have warmed up to around 5 C, but there was no melting (the sun is often blocked by local mountains except at mid-day so we don't get a lot of direct sunlight in mid-winter here). The east coast of the U.S. is now dealing with a full-blown winter hurricane, which is right now off the coast of North Carolina, heading for Cape Cod and the Gulf of Maine by tomorrow morning. Heavy snow is breaking out in strong winds all along the coast north to Long Island and blizzards will sweep into New England by afternoon with 150 km/hr wind gusts near Boston, as well as 20-40 cm snowfalls (could reach 60 cms further inland where not quite as windy).

In Australia, most of the southern half of the country is clear and very warm again, and much of Queensland and the Northern Territory are covered by thunderstorms, so it appears that the wet season is gradually developing in the north.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 5 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some parts of Leinster will have sunny intervals with just a chance of isolated showers later in the day, highs 6 to 8 C. Most of Ulster and Connacht will see outbreaks of rain that could become sleety on higher terrain, winds sometimes moderate westerly at first, then turning northerly to northeasterly later, as low pressure drops southward into Munster, which will start out cloudy with a few areas of patchy drizzle, then partly cloudy mid-day followed by outbreaks of light rain. For all these areas highs will be 5 to 7 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain may turn increasingly to sleet with wet snow possible on hills, in parts of Connacht and Munster, with lows of 1 to 3 C. Ulster and Leinster will be getting more into the colder northeasterly flow pushing against the low in the southwest, so they can expect mostly dry and partly cloudy conditions with possibly a few streamers developing of sleety showers, lows -2 to +2 C.

SATURDAY ... Rather windy and very cold, winds northeast 40-60 km/hr but increasing to easterly 50-80 km/hr in parts of the west. Some parts of west Munster may see sleet or wet snow for a time with later clearing. Parts of Leinster and north Connacht will have streamers of sleet, snow or hail showers feeding inland from nearby Irish Sea or Atlantic. Other locations may see longer intervals of sunshine, but everyone will be considerably colder than recent days with highs only 2 to 6 C.

SUNDAY ... Sharp to severe frost with lows -7 to -3 C, some persistent ice fog possible, then sunny but very cold during the day except where low cloud persists, highs -1 to +4 C. Less windy, and almost calm in some places.

MONDAY ... Continuing cold, increasing cloud during the day, and a raw east to southeast wind, 40-70 km/hr. Lows -6 to -2 C and highs 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY ... A rather uncertain forecast this far out, as a frontal system that is likely to be in a weakening phase runs up against the colder air, partly replacing it with somewhat milder Atlantic air from the south to southeast. Outbreaks of rain or sleet are likely with temperatures possibly as high as 8 C in west Munster and coastal Connacht, 4 to 6 C further east.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather cold with outbreaks of sleet or cold rain at times, snow on hills.

My local weather on Thursday was pleasant, higher cloud spread in above peak elevations and some sunny intervals continued, and highs reached about +1 C.

The big storm has come and gone from most of the eastern U.S., leaving big piles of wind-drifted snow from New York to Boston and into Maine. The low is currently in New Brunswick, Canada with the heavy snow continuing to move along with it on its northern flanks, and strong winds with sleet wrapping around its intense centre (recently measured at 950 mb). The east coast cities of the U.S. will see clearing and bitterly cold weather for today and tomorrow, then a slow warming trend to more normal January values (which for them are 6-9 C).

The settled summer weather pattern over most of Australia continues today with widespread monsoon rains affecting the northern third.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 6 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... For most, it will be a cold and partly cloudy day with moderate east winds of about 40-60 km/hr adding a chill to daytime highs of 5 to 8 C. In a few parts of south and east Leinster and west Munster, some mixed wintry showers are likely, snow mostly confined to higher elevations, but hail or sleet could fall lower down as well as cold rain showers, and a slight risk of thunder especially around Wicklow. Highs will also be in the same range (5 to 8 C) but temperatures could drop sharply near stronger showers. For the south and east Leinster showers, these will develop from streamers moving across the Irish Sea.

TONIGHT ... Any remnant wintry showers will die out in the evening hours, then it will become mostly clear and very cold with patchy ice fog possible by dawn. Lows will reach -7 to -3 C for most, but could be held up to about +1 C near east coast by onshore winds.

SUNDAY ... Lingering ice fog possible in valleys, otherwise wintry sunshine and very cold, highs zero to +5 C. Not very windy and calm at times inland.

MONDAY ... Another very cold morning with severe frosts, lows -7 to -2 C, ice fog patches, but then with winds increasing from the southeast to 30-50 km/hr, sun will be obscured by low cloud and temperatures will struggle up gradually to about 5 to 8 C with the milder readings in west Munster and near the south coast.

TUESDAY ... Overcast with sleet developing, probably a cold rain near sea level in south and west, some wet snow on hills. This mixed precipitation may take quite a while to reach the east, partly because it will evaporate into the dry air near the surface. Rather cold still with lows 1 to 4 C and highs 4 to 7 C for most, 7 to 10 C possible near southwest coast.

OUTLOOK ... Rather cold weather will continue all week, with a chance of a few mixed wintry showers on higher ground, and highs generally 5 to 8 C. Frosts will not be severe though. Another rather weak Atlantic frontal system will arrive later in the week with either a cold rain or sleet. Beyond that the pattern looks similar, quite often between 5 and 8 C with mixed wintry showers.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with light snow, about 2 cms, that changed to drizzle as temperatures rose above freezing to reach 3 C. It remains bitterly cold in eastern and central regions of North America where they are digging out of massive snow drifts in some places. There has not been much change for Australia where most are enjoying ideal summer weather, but a weak cold front is spreading some cloud onto the southeast coast.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 7 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Frosty except near southeast coast, some lingering ice fog possible in valleys, otherwise wintry sunshine and very cold, highs zero to +5 C. Not very windy and calm at times inland.

TONIGHT ... Clear at first, some increase in cloud later, so that frost may be more severe around midnight than towards dawn, lows -5 to -1 C, temperatures may rise somewhat after these lows are reached, to -3 to +2 C by morning.

MONDAY ... Another very cold morning with severe frosts in some parts of the central counties, lows -5 to -2 C, ice fog patches, but then with winds increasing from the southeast to 30-50 km/hr, sun will be obscured by low cloud and temperatures will struggle up gradually to about 5 to 8 C with the milder readings in west Munster and near the south coast.

TUESDAY ... Overcast with sleet or rain developing, turning to intermittent showers later in the day. Morning lows 1 to 4 C, afternoon highs 4 to 7 C north, 7 to 10 C south.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, some mixed wintry showers developing, highs around 5 or 6 C.

THURSDAY ... Dry and cold, increasing cloud late in the day, after a frosty start, highs may reach 8 C by evening.

FRIDAY ... Windy with occasional rain, milder, highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Gradually turning quite cold next weekend with mixed wintry showers returning, very cold by Sunday and Monday, with a risk of local snow accumulations.

My local weather on Saturday was foggy and milder with drizzle after some wet snow overnight, and highs reached 3 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 8 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Frosty for a while away from the milder south and east coasts and larger cities, watch for local black ice conditions and possibly a few patches of dense fog. Although the sun may try to make another decent appearance, cloud infiltrating from the south will tend to move in quite fast as an elevated fog or low cloud ceiling, and then it may be a case of obscured sunshine or just being able to make out the Sun's disc behind the thin cloud layer. The southeast breeze will pick up gradually and this may allow temperatures to climb slightly higher today, but still rather cold at 5 to 8 C.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, any clear intervals likely to be brief and restricted mainly to Ulster and north Leinster where lows could fall back to near freezing, otherwise lows about 2 to 5 C. Drizzle may develop towards morning in west Munster.

TUESDAY ... Becoming rather windy, especially near the west coast where a southerly wind of 50-90 km/hr will begin rather early in the day. Further east it will pick up more gradually to south-southeast 40-60 km/hr. Rain will follow becoming rather showery further east. It may remain cold enough in a few parts of the northeast to allow this rain to start out as sleet. About 10 mm of rain can be expected, but near 20 mm in west Connacht. Highs 8 to 11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, wintry showers at times, colder, lows 1-3 C and highs about 7 C at best.

THURSDAY ... Dry and rather cold, frosty to start, lows -3 to +1 C and highs 6 to 8 C with increasing cloud later in the day.

FRIDAY ... Windy with intervals of rain, southerly winds 50-80 km/hr, highs near 10.

SATURDAY ... Overcast, occasional rain perhaps turning to sleet later, temperatures dropping late in the day after being steady near 6 or 7 C.

SUNDAY 14th to TUESDAY 16th could be one of the colder intervals of the winter with a strong chance of lying snow, although large falls are not foreseen at this point, more like a widespread 1 to 3 cm event with snow perhaps coming and going in wintry sunshine between showers, highs only 3 to 6 C and slight frosts at night.

The pattern beyond that cold spell looks fairly cold too, with just the occasional slight warmup when frontal systems move through, with rain briefly, but several days of chilly weather likely between those, so overall, expecting this month to average a little below normal for January despite a few rather mild days at the start of the month.

My local weather brought an unwelcome light rain that softened up our snow while doing little to reduce the depth of the pack (about 35 cms), and highs reached 4 C. The extreme cold in the east is about to end with a mixed fall of sleet and freezing drizzle in places, then milder temperatures for the second half of this coming week. In places that have been well below freezing for two weeks, it will soar to 10-15 C by Thursday, which is bound to place strain on frozen pipes especially where there wasn't a lot of snow cover in parts of the Midwest, Mid Atlantic and southeastern states. Then they are back into quite a cold air mass by the weekend.

In Australia, while many places remain hot and dry, Sydney and parts of the east coast are being rocked by heavy thunderstorms.

M.T. Cranium

Just having some trouble posting ... no real changes to forecast ... if a moderator can find post reply 2055579971 my post is there (just won't show on page).

Okay, problem solved, see next post ...

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 9 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Becoming rather windy this morning, especially near the west coast where a southerly wind of 50-90 km/hr will begin rather early in the day. Further east it will pick up more gradually to south-southeast 40-60 km/hr. Rain will follow becoming rather showery further east. It may remain cold enough in a few parts of the northeast to allow this rain to start out as sleet. About 10 mm of rain can be expected, but near 20 mm in west Connacht and parts of the midlands. Highs 8 to 11 C south and west, 6 to 9 C east and north.

TONIGHT ... Showers ending, some clear intervals, slight frosts developing, lows -1 to +3 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, wintry showers at times, colder, highs about 7 C. A more organized band of sleet or hill snow may develop in the inland south by evening.

THURSDAY ... Dry and rather cold, frosty to start, lows -3 to +1 C and highs 6 to 8 C with increasing cloud later in the day.

FRIDAY ... Windy with intervals of rain, southerly winds 50-80 km/hr, highs near 10.

SATURDAY ... Overcast, occasional rain perhaps turning to sleet later, temperatures dropping late in the day after being steady near 6 or 7 C.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY ... Somewhat colder with daily outbreaks of rain, sleet or wet snow, sometimes in gusty westerly winds, highs 4 to 7 C. Slight frosts in some inland counties.

OUTLOOK ... Turning even colder for the second half of next week with strong, gusty northwest winds and the risk of significant snowfalls in higher parts of the west.

My local weather was foggy with wet snow and some drizzle with highs near 2 C.

Now that I got this part posted, I did some research into Australian time zones. Western Australia is in the western Australian time zone (no surprise) and that's 8 hours ahead of Greenwich, Irish or z time however you like. Also they don't indulge in daylight savings time there. Then both South Australia and the Northern Terrritory are in the central Australian time zone, which is 9.5 hours ahead of all of the above. South Australia does employ daylight savings time so as you may read this at 0900h, it is 7:30 p.m. ACDT in Adelaide. And then the four eastern states plus the ACT (Canberra) are in the eastern time zone which is 10 hours ahead when standard time, and all but Queensland are currently on daylight savings time, so it's now 8 p.m. AEDT in Sydney and Melbourne but 7 p.m. AEST in Brisbane. Apparently both Queensland and Western Australia have had several referenda to determine whether to go on to daylight savings time, but it continues to be rejected by those voters.

And as for the weather down under (late) today, some heavy storms were showing up near Wollongong and Nowra south of Sydney but it remains hot and dry further north, and refreshingly cool to the south of that front (in Victoria and Tasmania). Now I wonder if this edit will post or if the Australian time zone censors will step in once again?

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 10 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Watch for isolated black ice in south-central valleys this morning, slight frosts have occurred there. After fog lifts in most places, partly to mostly cloudy, outbreaks of cold rain with wintry showers on higher terrain at times, colder, highs about 7 C. Persistent low cloud in some parts of the north may reduce visibility on hilly terrain. A more organized band of rain, turning to sleet or hill snow may develop in the inland south by evening.

TONIGHT ... Outbreaks of sleety rain or hill snow across the south and some parts of the west, potential for 3-5 cms snow on some hills, and 10-20 mm rainfall or melted equivalent at lower elevations. Lows 2 to 4 C south, but as skies gradually clear further north, frost will develop there with lows -4 to -1 C inland, near freezing around coastal Connacht and Ulster, north Leinster.

THURSDAY ... Dry and rather cold, frosty to start, lows -3 to +1 C and highs 6 to 8 C with increasing cloud later in the day.

FRIDAY ... Windy with intervals of rain, southerly winds 50-80 km/hr, highs near 10. Rain will move rather slowly eastward and so most of this will occur Friday night into Saturday morning in Leinster and east Ulster. About 10 mm of rain is expected with this front.

SATURDAY ... Overcast, occasional rain perhaps turning to sleet later, temperatures dropping late in the day after being steady near 6 or 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Scattered morning frost and freezing fog, then increasing cloud, becoming windy and turning colder late in the day with sleety rain turning to wintry showers, snow on hills by evening. Winds increasing to westerly 50-80 km/hr. Highs about 8 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be rather cold days with mixed wintry showers, gusty west to northwest winds, and highs near 7 C at best, possibly lower in parts of the north, and slight morning frosts.

OUTLOOK ... Turning even colder for the second half of next week with strong, gusty northwest winds and the risk of significant snowfalls in higher parts of the west. Highs only 2 to 6 C as some more potent arctic air mixes into this persistent maritime northwesterly flow. While less snow is probable near south and east coasts, there could be mixed falls at times almost anywhere.

I think it's likely to become quite stormy near the last week of January, stay tuned on that.

My local weather was mild at 5 C, rather foggy with glimpses of sun or at least patches of brighter sky, after another fall of wet snow in the early morning hours. These falls are maintaining our snow pack at about 30-35 cms but the roads are quite a slushy mess with ponding in some flat spots. Out at the coast it has turned very mild, highs near 10 C there. And much milder air is massing over the central plains states ahead of a cold front now into Arizona that has brought heavy rain to southern California and western Arizona, also Las Vegas. This is the first significant rain of the winter season in most of these locations and some mudslides have added to the woes of people who were just recently fighting raging wildfires.

Down under, that weak cold front I mentioned yesterday seems to have pushed all the way north towards the NSW-QLD border and weakened to the point where it's just a band of inactive cloud, so a bit cooler than lately for Sydney and most of NSW, and continued hot further north. Another tropical storm seems to be headed on a similar track to last month's cyclone (as they are called) into north-central parts of WA, landfall is expected around Friday.

The Australian met service has an excellent web site if you want to follow their weather in more detail, that's at bom.gov.au (Bureau of Meteorology, has nothing to do with Bruce).

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 11 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some persistent fog or low cloud in central counties this morning with patchy black ice conditions possible from about south Galway east to Offaly. Elsewhere, cloud may break to a few sunny intervals especially near coasts. Rather cold inland with highs only 3 to 7 C. Somewhat milder around coastal areas where highs could reach 9 or 10 C. Light winds or even calm conditions will prevent the air from mixing very easily, allowing conditions to remain locally rather different from place to place.

TONIGHT ... The east and north may stay rather cold until well after midnight with patchy frost, fog and lows -2 to +3 C. The south and west will have increasing southeast winds bringing in milder air, followed by rain in some southwestern districts, and temperatures will be rising towards 8 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and milder (although it may feel rather raw) with 10-20 mm rainfalls in the west, spreading slowly to eastern counties by late in the day. Winds increasing to SSE 60-100 km/hr. Highs 8-11 C.

SATURDAY ... Rain more confined to Leinster and east Ulster and ending there around mid-day with showers persisting, but partly cloudy further west with just isolated showers, rather cool again with highs about 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY ... As the expected cold front has slowed down somewhat, much of Sunday may now turn out fairly decent with partly cloudy skies and moderate southwest winds, then rain is expected by late afternoon west and evening to overnight east, highs 8 to 10 C.

NEXT WEEK will become progressively colder in a northwest flow, showers becoming increasingly wintry each day to about Thursday which may be the coldest day, although Friday will see only limited recovery. Highs around 7 C on Monday, 6 C on Tuesday and only 3-5 C Wednesday to Friday, and slight frosts each night, in a persistently windy regime between westerly and northwesterly most of the time, in the range of 50 to 80 km/hr, making the temperatures feel more like +1 C in the daytime. Falls of snow are quite likely by mid-week in higher parts of Connacht, west Ulster and west Munster. These will be less likely near east and south coasts but mixed wintry showers will probably be rather widespread at times, with thunder and hail in the mix as well.

The further outlook calls for a somewhat less windy interval but staying rather cold, and any milder intervals will be very brief as this large scale pattern of cold, unsettled conditions shows little signs of moving away.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with light snow at times, and the high was about 3 C. About 100 kms north of here the temperature is about -15 C but the frontal boundary will just clip us in time to change the next batch of mixed precipitation to a heavy snowfall later Thursday. This very cold air is mostly poised to move southeast into the plains states and eventually the northeastern U.S. and Great Lakes where it will replace the current milder air mass on Saturday. But before that happens, a welcome warm spell with highs of 15 C will be enjoyed on the east coast (except by skiers perhaps).

In Australia, there's a tropical cyclone moving into western Australia's north coast late tonight, and it remains rather cool for mid-summer in the southeast including much of New South Wales, with locally heavy storms south of Brisbane and north of Sydney.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 12 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rain will edge eastward, but it may take most of the day for it to arrive on the east coast. Winds will increase to southerly 50-80 km/hr and 10-20 mm of rain will fall in western counties. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain will spread further east and taper off to showers or drizzle near the west coast, bringing 10-20 mm falls to the central and eastern counties. Lows about 7 to 9 C.

SATURDAY ... Rain finally easing around mid-day across eastern counties, risk of some spot flooding towards the end of this prolonged event, as some brighter intervals develop for western counties. Somewhat cooler with temperatures steady around 7 to 9 C.

SUNDAY ... Morning frosts, then cloudy with rain developing, rather mild until late in the day. Lows -1 to +3 C and highs 9 to 12 C. About 10 mm of rain with this front.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, windy, still a bit too mild for wintry showers except perhaps by evening in the far north, highs near 8 C. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, cold, windy with mixed wintry showers, lows near -1 C and highs near 6 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will probably be the coldest days of this spell with highs around 5 C and the mixture of rain, sleet and snow providing some snow accumulations mostly on hills in Connacht, west Ulster and west Munster. Hail and thunder will likely be in the mix. Winds continuing quite brisk from the west to northwest at 50 to 80 km/hr, adding a significant wind chill. Slight frosts each night with lows around -2 C in some places.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will be only marginally warmer but perhaps not quite as windy, but still with mixed wintry showers likely. Highs about 7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for mostly cold temperatures but some more settled intervals which are likely to have more severe frosts but less by way of wintry showers.

My local weather on Thursday stayed cloudy, snow was off to our south but we only had a few flurries, and the front is pivoting as the very cold air slides rapidly southeast past the Rockies, so eventually we are going to benefit here from a return southerly flow while most of North America goes back into the freezer after today's rather welcome respite (15 to 20 C in eastern cities on Thursday, but rain, sleet, then snow will mark a double cold frontal passage and Saturday will be closer to -10 or even -15 C in those regions.

Here's a picture of what's going on in the eastern hemisphere:

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/

See if you can spot the tropical cyclone hitting western Australia, a cold front near Melbourne, big storms across the central Australian outback, a dingo chasing somebody's baby, and in the northern hemisphere, a large but not very active frontal system south of Japan.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 13 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... The persistent band of rain is weakening somewhat and becoming more confined to Leinster and east Ulster this morning. It will probably just weaken to scattered showers rather than moving away entirely this afternoon, and more showers will likely develop in the partly to mostly cloudy air mass over western counties, while all regions see temperatures in the 7-9 C range. Winds that are currently moderate southerly over Leinster should ease off later in the day and otherwise the winds will slowly turn more northerly from west to east as a weak trough plods east.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals and slight frosts, widespread fog may develop with some icy stretches on roads in central counties, lows -2 to +3 C.

SUNDAY ... Becoming mostly cloudy, rain sweeping in from northwest by afternoon and evening, as winds increase to southwest 50-80 km/hr. Highs 8-11 C. About 10 to 15 mm of rain likely with this front, lasting into early Monday in the south.

MONDAY ... Windy and turning colder, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr with some higher gusts near Atlantic coasts, showers of rain or hail with some wintry showers on higher terrain by evening, morning lows about 4 C and afternoon highs 6-8 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy and cold with mixed wintry showers, some falls of snow on hills in Connacht, west Ulster and west Munster, a few sunny intervals near east and south coasts, morning lows -2 to +2 C and afternoon highs only 4 to 8 C. Winds of about 60-100 km/hr from the west-northwest will add a chill to those readings.

WEDNESDAY ... The forecast has now become somewhat uncertain with the possibility of a strong low forming in this cold westerly airstream and blasting across the northern half of the country (according to both of the most reliable global models this morning) which would briefly bring temperatures back up to 7-10 C but with very strong westerly winds possible, and heavy rain for a time. As this could change to some other track or outcome, we are just watching this one from five days out to see what actually happens, readers will have to keep in mind that this low has not yet formed and the prediction has a lot of moving parts, while some guidance (not always the leading models) has no sign of this new development and maintains the colder west-northwest flow on Wednesday.

OUTLOOK ... If that low does happen then Thursday could be very windy and cold with significant snowfalls possible in the north and west. If the low takes another track or does not materialize, then it's still a good bet that Thursday and Friday will continue cold and windy with mixed wintry showers. Beyond that, the pattern shows signs of a slow transition back to a milder but still unsettled west-southwesterly flow with more of a mix of temperatures averaging near normal values.

In any case, I would not expect any real clarity on this mid-week potential weather event until about Sunday or even Monday given the fast flow and numerous weak systems involved. This is sort of like predicting when Uncle Bill will arrive at your house when he hasn't gotten into his car a hundred miles away and no one's sure if he's even going to remember. (sorry Uncle Bill)

My local weather on Friday was another snowglobe day with the snowglobe set to tranquil, about 5 cms of snow eventually fell with the temperature close to -1 C all day. Milder weather is slowly pushing in as very cold arctic air heads past our location on the far side of the mountains and keeps heading southeast. The eastern U.S. and southern Ontario - Quebec regions have seen a very fast drop in temperatures and some heavy snow in upstate New York overnight, while the last of very mild and rainy weather on the east coast will come to a sudden end this morning, then temperatures drop within hours from 15 C to -10 C.

In Australia, cooler air pushed a long way north today and covers almost all of NSW and SA as well as Victoria and Tasmania, and temperatures are quite a bit lower than average values in some places (15-20 C) trending to higher 20s near the front. It remains hot in Queensland and the NT, and this front links up with remnants of the tropical cyclone but most of WA is quite warm anyway, unaffected by the cooler push further east. At some point I may just link to the Australian met page since it's very clear on their home page what's happening now and what's expected tomorrow. (www.bom.gov.au)

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 14 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast this morning, winds not too strong until mid-afternoon when they will increase to southwest 50-80 km/hr in exposed locations, ahead of some rain sweeping in from the northwest by late in the day. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain (10-15 mm likely) with moderate southwest winds continuing, lows about 7 C.

MONDAY ... Becoming colder as the day unfolds, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr, frequent showers developing, some with hail and thunder. By evening some of these will turn wintry on higher ground in Connacht and west Ulster mainly. Highs 6 to 8 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy (westerly 50-80 km/hr) and very cold with mixed wintry showers, risk of 3-5 cm snowfalls on higher ground in Connacht and west Ulster, 1-3 cm on hills in west Munster, and eventually on higher ground in Leinster also, but at lower elevations the mix of rain, sleet, hail and wet snow showers will be very hit or miss in terms of any lying snow or prolonged hail having any impact on the roads, it could happen almost anywhere as conditions will be marginal for snow (meaning we can't rule it out except probably right along the south coast east of Cork). Morning lows -2 to +2 C and afternoon highs only 2 to 6 C. Temperatures could fall to near zero during any lengthy hail or snow outbreaks over high ground. There will, however, be some sunshine at times especially near east and south coasts.

WEDNESDAY ... Most guidance shows a powerful low somewhere near Ulster by late in the day, but tracks of this storm range from inland Ulster to around the 60th parallel of latitude and into Shetland, so at this point, we can be fairly sure it will turn increasingly windy and probably rather mild for a few hours late in the day, after possibly a rather sleety mix of rain and wet snow with the warm front of this system. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr could increase to gales or even storm force depending on the details, and I don't expect a lot of certainty about this situation until perhaps Monday evening when the low should have completed its early stages of development near Newfoundland. Morning lows will likely be close to the freezing point and highs could reach 10 or 11 C by late in the day. If this storm should track inland across Ireland, there might be bands of wet snow or sleet also, but this is not currently the preferred model solution.

THURSDAY ... Windy and quite cold again, mixed wintry showers, winds west to northwest 60-100 km/hr, and highs only 5 or 6 C.

FRIDAY ... Still rather breezy and cold with more mixed wintry showers, not quite as windy though, highs 6 to 8 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Confidence is low because of model fluctuations from one run to the next, at one point we were being shown some rather cold easterly winds developing, then it was more of a return to milder weather, so I think we'll mark this unknown and wait and see what actually happens -- the problem seems to be that wavelengths in the upper flow keep changing length and this is confusing the computer models, and if they're confused with the collective brain power of a million genius scientists, then imagine how I'm feeling.

My local weather turned really mild with clouds trying to part but just interesting glimpses of distant mountain slopes in sunlight as a result. The high was about 5 C, and our snow pack remains about the same for now, settling nicely. We can expect two or three more days like this before a slight cooling trend. Much colder air has returned to the eastern half of North America after a few spring-like days there, and temperatures stayed below -10 C in parts of the Midwest, and -20 C in the upper plains and prairies of Canada.

In Australia, today has been quite fair across most of the populated south, as that cooler air mass got over land and warmed up to more normal values of 25-30 C. The remains of tropical cyclone Joyce appear to be edging towards Perth over land which is rather unusual, and rain may soon begin there with east winds (remember, in the southern hemisphere, circulation around highs and lows is opposite to what we are used to seeing). Heavy storms are fairly widespread across the tropical north.

I hope to have some clearer idea of how the late Wednesday event will work out by Monday morning's edition of Guess the Mid-week Weather Outcome. Maybe the tabloids will have figured it out (I won't encourage them).

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 15 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Becoming colder as the day unfolds, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr, frequent showers developing, some with hail and thunder. By evening some of these will turn wintry on higher ground in Connacht and west Ulster mainly. Highs 6 to 8 C.

TONIGHT ... Wintry showers with some risk of accumulating snow in higher parts of west Munster, Connacht and west Ulster. Lows -2 to +2 C. Windy at times, westerly 40 to 70 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Windy (westerly 50-80 km/hr) and very cold with mixed wintry showers, risk of 3-5 cm snowfalls on higher ground in Connacht and west Ulster, 1-3 cm on hills in west Munster, and eventually on higher ground in Leinster also, but at lower elevations the mix of rain, sleet, hail and wet snow showers will be very hit or miss in terms of any lying snow or prolonged hail having any impact on the roads, it could happen almost anywhere as conditions will be marginal for snow (meaning we can't rule it out except probably right along the south coast east of Cork). Morning lows -2 to +2 C and afternoon highs only 2 to 6 C. Temperatures could fall to near zero during any lengthy hail or snow outbreaks over high ground. There will, however, be some sunshine at times especially near east and south coasts.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and cold to start the day, morning lows -2 to +2 C, with mixed sleety showers continuing, but winds backing to southwest 50-80 km/hr will bring in milder air for the latter portion of the day (quite late to arrive in Ulster though), with highs 9 to 11 C. An interval of rain is likely with 10-15 mm potential, as winds increase to west-southwest 70-100 km/hr. There is a risk of stronger winds developing overnight into Thursday early morning, especially over northern counties. Details on that may not be well resolved until later Monday, peak gusts would probably be a little after midnight on current model guidance.

THURSDAY ... Windy and quite cold again, mixed wintry showers, winds west to northwest 60-100 km/hr, and highs only 5 or 6 C.

FRIDAY ... Still rather breezy and cold with more mixed wintry showers, not quite as windy though, highs 6 to 8 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy with isolated showers, slightly milder with highs near 9 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... It seems likely to become relatively mild for the final full week of January, although with slightly colder days from time to time, as the flow backs to a direction a little south of due west and pulls in somewhat milder Atlantic air masses than for much of this coming week.

My local weather on Sunday was mostly cloudy with brighter intervals and quite mild with highs near 5 C. We are not getting much melting, our snow pack is just compacting to about 25 cms now. A weak snow-producing system is moving through the Great Lakes region and may inspire another weak disturbance near the coast by Tuesday, with snowfalls generally in the 2-5 cm range, as temperatures remain rather cold in the east.

Most of eastern and central Australia has enjoyed a sunny and seasonably warm day but remnants of the tropical cyclone have been drenching Perth and southern parts of western Australia, and it's quite cool for this time of year (below 20 C in Perth).

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 16 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for locally heavy snow and hail showers that could produce poor driving or walking conditions, more likely in higher parts of north and west, but especially around late morning and early afternoon cannot be ruled out elsewhere. Also ADVANCE ALERT for possible strong winds Wednesday night (valid 1900h Wednesday to 0500h Thursday) in all regions as a fast-moving and potentially intensifying low travels across northern counties during the night. Gusts to 120 km/hr are possible with this and there may be late-breaking changes to forecasts as the system is still in a rather early stage of its life cycle (presently about 1015 mbs south of Newfoundland, Canada).

TODAY will be a very cold day in part due to persistently strong westerly winds at about 70 to 110 km/hr at times, and squally showers of hail, sleet or snow could hit almost anywhere with at least temporary disruptions to travel. There will be brighter intervals but still cold and windy in those, as highs reach only 2 to 6 C. Some of the heavier squalls could produce thunder as well.

TONIGHT will likely be much the same although there could be more rain showers in the mixture of wintry showers, and winds will continue brisk, west-northwesterly at about 60 to 90 km/hr. Lows of about -1 to +2 C.

WEDNESDAY will start out windy and cold, with mixed wintry showers, and there could be intervals of snow or sleet across inland Ulster and higher parts of Connacht, before somewhat milder air arrives late in the day on strong southwest winds that will reach 70-110 km/hr by evening. There will be an interval of 10-15 mm rainfalls for most, and some chance of gusty thunderstorms. Highs 8 to 11 C after morning temperatures mostly in the 3-5 C range.

THURSDAY will feature early morning strong winds that may peak around the early morning rush hour in Leinster, moving across the country overnight and possibly reaching gusts of 120 km/hr. Temperatures will remain 8-10 C overnight then fall off rapidly during the morning, leading back to today's mixture of sleet, hail and snow showers by afternoon, in brisk northwesterly winds and temperatures 2-5 C.

FRIDAY will be the last really cold day for a while with more mixed wintry showers and still quite windy, northwesterly 50-80 km/hr, lows near -1 C and highs 5-8 C.

SATURDAY will bring slight increases in temperatures and a decrease in wind speeds with the showers mostly of rain dying out for some later clearing, highs 8 to 10 C.

SUNDAY will see intervals of light rain and highs near 10 C.

The outlook for next week is generally unsettled with near normal temperatures although somewhat cooler than the weekend, 7 to 9 C mostly for daytime readings, and occasionally rather strong southwesterly winds, but it won't be a very mild southwest flow, just stale arctic air wrapping around upper-level disturbances.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with some brighter intervals and mild with highs about 5 C. Light snow is moving out of the Great Lakes and Ohio valley towards the east coast; a weak system will form and it could bring as much as 10 cms of snow to parts of the northeast by Wednesday.

In Australia, most of the southeast is warm and dry today, and western Australia is getting back to more normal midsummer weather as that old tropical cyclone dissipates off the south coast. It looks like the "wet" (season) is finally ramping up to something fairly active across the northern third with plenty of monsoonal storms drifting from east to west there.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE __ 3 p.m. Tuesday 16 January 2018
________________________________________

Names have been given to both this evening's expected peak in westerly winds (Fionn) and the potential storm for Wednesday night (Georgina).

There is no new guidance for Georgina to make any amendments to that part of the forecast, still watching closely.

This evening's expected stronger winds will be just slightly higher than what has been experienced in exposed coastal locations all day, with possible gusts to 120 km/hr and very high seas especially on west-facing coasts near high tide. The new moon occurs overnight at 0213h and while at its furthest distance from earth (apogee), it is still a peak tide anyway. Days of strong westerly winds and the large swell generated will be pushing in big Atlantic seas around Galway Bay and the Shannon estuary, and parts of Kerry.

As to the current mixture of squally showers of various kinds, this will more or less continue with perhaps a slight increase in coverage of heavy snow showers later today as the coldest air aloft now looks to be timed for about 8 p.m., roughly when the strongest winds are also expected (but there will only be slight changes there from hour to hour).

If anything develops about Georgina meanwhile, another update may appear but I think any substantial changes in that outlook may happen during the overnight guidance so timed for the usual forecast message in the morning.

Stay safe, some areas are getting enough snow to make driving a bit treacherous and snow showers can hit without much prior warning.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 17 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for strong winds redeveloping late this afternoon and overnight, mostly south of a Mayo to Meath line, westerly 80 to 110 km/hr with possible higher gusts. Also be aware that further snow showers could come and go this morning but mostly in north Leinster and Ulster. There should be a milder interval this afternoon with only rain except for sleet in parts of Ulster. Then a complex mixture of sleet, snow and mixed precipitation will spread across the north tonight north of the track of low pressure and some inland portions of Ulster could see 3-7 cms of snow by morning. Then there will be more widespread snow showers again developing as it turns colder by later Thursday and overnight into early Friday.

TODAY will start out windy and still rather cold with slowly rising temperatures 3-5 C and with mixed wintry showers, and there could be intervals of snow or sleet across inland Ulster and north Leinster as well as higher parts of Connacht, west Munster, before somewhat milder air arrives late in the day on strong southwest winds that will reach 70-110 km/hr by evening. There will be an interval of 10-15 mm rainfalls for most, and some chance of gusty thunderstorms. Highs 8 to 11 C after morning temperatures mostly in the 3-5 C range. Temperatures will however stay closer to 5 or 6 C at peak in Ulster and 8 C in north Connacht and north Leinster.

TONIGHT will bring a surge in stronger westerly winds south of a storm track from about Galway and south Mayo to Meath. If you are near that track you may see quite a variety of weather and an interval of less gusty winds, and if north, you will probably have outbreaks of sleet or snow (3 to 7 cms possible) and mostly moderate east winds turning northerly later on. Squally showers and strong westerly winds will develop across the southern two thirds of the country (westerly 70-120 km/hr) with high seas and possible storm surge damage on west-facing coasts. Temperatures will stay in the 7-9 C range in the south, 3-6 C north central, and 1-3 C Ulster, falling to near 0 C later in the night there.

THURSDAY will feature early morning strong winds that may peak before the early morning rush hour in Leinster, moving across the country overnight and possibly reaching gusts of 120 km/hr. Temperatures will fall off rapidly during the morning, leading back to a mixture of sleet, hail and snow showers by afternoon, in brisk northwesterly winds and temperatures eventually back down to about 2-5 C. There may be more outbreaks of accumulating snow in many areas by late afternoon, evening and overnight.

FRIDAY will be the last really cold day for a while with more snow in the morning becoming more mixed wintry showers and still quite windy, northwesterly 50-80 km/hr, lows near -1 C and highs 5-8 C.

SATURDAY's outlook has changed to increasing cloud with intervals of light rain later in the day, highs 8 to 10 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will see intervals of light rain and highs near 11 C.

OUTLOOK ... Quite unsettled and turning colder in stages next week, with another round of wintry precipitation in strong northwest winds due around Thursday 25th.

My local weather on Tuesday produced light sleety wet snow, not much accumulation and temperatures of 2-3 C. About 5 to 15 cm of snow will fall in parts of the inland northeast U.S. today, and very cold air will hold on for another day or two in the Midwest before a warming trend Friday. Then it will become very mild there and towards the east coast this weekend. Australian weather looks settled and seasonably warm today in most of the larger cities.

Note: will be watching today's storm (Georgina possibly, name may not be designated yet) closely for any signs of more intense development or a change in track, as either of those things could bring about more severe winds or a different outcome for snowfall. Snow in any case is likely to be situated in counties north of the track that this low takes, and will be heavier inland as it will mix near sea level with rain.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 18 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rather windy and cold with passing mixed wintry showers, more likely to be snow in higher parts of Connacht and most of Ulster, and some new 3-5 cm accumulations are likely there by tonight. Elsewhere, more of a mix of different types of precipitation, and not quite as much potential for a snowfall event as we saw on Tuesday but some will get 1-3 cm later today. Temperatures steady 4-6 C to mid-afternoon then falling to 2-4 C. Winds west-northwest 50-80 km/hr adding a chill to those values.

TONIGHT ... Widespread snow showers likely, but some mixing with sleet or hail near coasts, rain showers near south coast, lows -1 to +2 C. Winds continuing rather blustery, westerly 40-70 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Breezy and cold, mixed wintry showers with the snow component diminishing over the day, as temperatures come up slightly towards 5-7 C. There may be an interval of snow showers in north and east Ulster towards evening from a rather limited area of low pressure passing by to their north.

SATURDAY ... Some frost to start, then cloudy with outbreaks of rain becoming rather heavy towards evening, lows near -1 C and highs near 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Rain at times, very mild, highs 11-13 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will continue quite mild with highs 10-12 C. There will be further outbreaks of rain.

The outlook for the rest of the week is unsettled and windy with colder temperatures and a slight risk of snow again although with readings of 4-7 C it's likely to be limited to higher terrain. But there may be one period with more widespread snow around Thursday night (a week from today).

My local weather on Wednesday continued rather mild (for here) with highs near 3 C and some rain began at sunset, mixing with wet snow close to us at slightly higher elevations. The minor snow event has moved on from New England and some parts of North Carolina got snow from a trailing system. You may have heard on the news that there have been temperatures below -60 C in parts of eastern Siberia and readings below -50 are quite widespread there today.

In Australia, hot and dry for most of the central and inland southeast, not quite fully affecting Sydney yet (30 C) but near 40 C in both Melbourne and Adelaide earlier today (they are approaching sunset there now).

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 19 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy, passing wintry showers, best chances for snow in higher parts of Ulster and a few locations in Connacht, Munster. Some localized 3-5 cm accumulations there. Otherwise most locations are more likely to see sleet or hail showers. Strong westerly winds dying out gradually by afternoon, highs 5 to 8 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals and cold in north, east, frosts around midnight with icy stretches on some roads, lows -2 to +2 C. Rain or drizzle developing across parts of south and west, turning to sleet on hills and some snow possible at first, temperatures rising slowly to about 3 or 4 C.

SATURDAY ... The rain or sleet will make further progress north although moving more to the east before dying out mid-day. Snow only likely on higher terrain in this mixture. Some brighter intervals developing with heavier rain moving in from the southwest by evening. Highs later in the day 7 to 10 C (4 to 7 C east Ulster, north Leinster). About 10-20 mm of rain in total from the two systems in the south, less further north.

SUNDAY ... Very mild for most with some further rain, then partial clearing, highs about 11 to 13 C. It may stay closer to 5 C in parts of Ulster with dense fog developing over snow-covered areas (snow gradually melting).

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, highs 8 to 10 C. Some showers in northwest by late in the day.

TUESDAY ... Occasional rain, mild, breezy. Highs 10 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rather windy and turning colder, showers becoming mixed by evening, temperatures near 10 C at first then falling to 2-4 C.

THURSDAY ... Breezy and cold with scattered wintry showers, highs 3 to 6 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... More settled than the previous days with near normal temperatures but some cold nights as clearer skies prevail.

My local weather cleared up briefly for a great view of the local peaks. There's a picture to illustrate that at the end of today's report. Some passing rain showers too, and highs near 6 C. Nothing too active anywhere across North America at the moment.

In Australia, the heat in the southeast is being moderated near coastlines by sea breezes, rather than just blasting into Sydney as sometimes happens, so it's about 28 C there and 40 C inland, but that extends across northern Victoria and most of NSW into South Australia. Western Australia is returning to more normal hot midsummer temperatures after quite a cool spell due to cloud and rain from a tropical cyclone.

Just to underscore why we were concerned about the windy frontal passage early Thursday morning, it really blew up into a hurricane-force storm over the North Sea and hit the Netherlands very hard with gusts over 140 km/hr in places. I'm sure that's fairly prominent on the news there (didn't notice any coverage here so far, quite often we see European weather stories a day or two later and they get the full climate change treatment. As bad as this was, not much comparison to the 1st Feb 1953 storm which was already very strong when it passed Ireland 30-31 Jan (causing a ferry to sink with great loss of life) then of course it did enormous damage in eastern England and Holland, leading to the deaths by drowning of about two thousand people, and soon afterwards their building program of defensive sea walls. And back in medieval times, entire islands north of Holland sometimes disappeared with catastrophic loss of life in severe windstorms. Some of those events had death tolls that might have reached tens of thousands.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 20 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some drizzle or light sleet in parts of the north (snow in Northern Ireland) this morning should slowly clear with some persistent fog or mist and continuing rather cold temperatures except in Munster where milder air and rain will move in with the rain becoming heavier as it moves further north by late afternoon. Highs 3 to 6 C in many parts of the north and east, 8 to 10 C in the southwest. About 10-15 mm of rain possible.

TONIGHT ... Rain will be heavy at times (10-20 mm) and will change to sleet or wet snow over parts of Ulster, as the milder air takes several hours to push all the way through Ulster. Temperatures steady 8-10 C in the south, and rising to about 7 C further north by dawn. Dense fog is likely in some rural areas and over any melting snow cover in the north.

SUNDAY ... Rain ending by mid-day then partly cloudy and mild. Highs 11-13 C in the south, 7 to 10 C north.

MONDAY ... A few early morning showers, then partly cloudy during the day, lows about 4 C and highs about 9 C.

TUESDAY ... Mild with occasional rain, but turning colder late in the day. Highs near 10 C, temperatures falling to 3-4 C by evening. About 10 mm of rain expected.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and rather cold with frequent showers, and the risk of an interval of heavier rain especially for southern counties. Potential for 20-40 mm rainfalls. Highs 5 to 8 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy and very cold with wintry showers, falls of snow on higher terrain. Highs 3 to 6 C.

OUTLOOK ... Turning quite mild again by Friday and into the following weekend. This mild spell may break down from within rather than due to any colder air pushing in from a distance; as the high pressure area circulating the mild air drifts closer to Ireland, it may reduce the wind to almost calm which could lead to dense fog and colder nights. Then eventually cold air will move in from further north, clearing the fog but keeping it rather cold as the month ends.

My local weather on Friday was mild with light rain and fog, highs reaching 5 C.

Heat continues across most of Australia although Melbourne and Tasmania are in a cooler flow from the south. Most places apart from the tropical north remain dry.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 21 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rain ending by mid-day as any remaining sleet changes to rain in Ulster, then partly cloudy and mild from mid-morning hours in the south and closer to early afternoon further north. It may remain quite foggy until the rain ends, and possibly for a time afterwards in cooler areas of the north. Highs 11-13 C in the south, 7 to 10 C north. Moderate southwest breezes 40-60 km/hr at times.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, mild, lows 4-7 C.

MONDAY ... A few early morning showers, then partly cloudy during the day, some eastern and southern counties turning out sunny by afternoon, lows about 4 C and highs about 9 C.

TUESDAY ... Mild with occasional rain, but turning colder late in the day. Highs near 10 C, temperatures falling to 3-4 C by evening. About 10 mm of rain expected.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and rather cold with frequent showers, and the risk of an interval of heavier rain especially for southern counties. Potential for 15-25 mm rainfalls. Lows 2 to 4 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy and very cold with wintry showers, falls of snow on higher terrain. Lows -1 to +2 C and highs 4 to 7 C. Temperatures appear a bit marginal for widespread wintry showers so that areas near sea level will probably see more rain or hail than sleet or snow. Some snow is likely to accumulate on higher ground.

OUTLOOK ... Turning quite mild again by Friday and into the following weekend. This mild spell may break down from within rather than due to any colder air pushing in from a distance; as the high pressure area circulating the mild air drifts closer to Ireland, it may reduce the wind to almost calm which could lead to dense fog and colder nights. Then eventually cold air will move in from further north, clearing the fog but keeping it rather cold as the month ends.

My local weather on Saturday was partly to mostly cloudy and mild with highs around 7 C. Our snow has slumped down to about 15 cms now and large snowbanks are melting slowly. Up a little higher though, still quite good winter sports conditions as the pack was deeper there and these temperatures register closer to 2-4 C on the hillsides. Meanwhile, it is turning quite spring-like in central and eastern regions of North America ahead of a spring-like storm that will bring snow to the northern plains and upper Great Lakes next two days, but just rain showers along a cold front further south; however, it will turn considerably colder around Tuesday.

The heat wave continues in most of Australia and fires are beginning to break out in parts of New South Wales and Victoria. Highs of 35-40 C are widespread although some moderation from sea breezes is helping Sydney and Melbourne residents.

Here's one more international note of interest to you weather enthusiasts -- extreme high pressure has formed over north-central Siberia, a recent map I saw had a central pressure of 1069 mbs well to the north of Novosibirsk. Temperatures near this massive high are generally around -40 to -50 C, not that unusual for the region, it's more the pressure reading that's a bit out of the ordinary. You see a lot of 1040 or 1050 mb highs in Siberia but occasionally they get past 1060 mbs. That latter figure is considered exceptionally high in North America, in the 178 years of records at Toronto the highest is about 1057 mbs. I think the record in Ireland is about 1053 or 1054 mbs, perhaps somebody can quote the exact number. No sign of that strong Siberian high moving west, or in any particular direction. It links up to less impressive highs in northeast Siberia and Alaska. Everywhere underneath that chain of highs is around -35 to -45 C. Again, that's not unusual, temperatures often fall to about -55 C or lower in parts of Alaska and Yukon.

vicwatson

Up to July 2013

“Highest sea level pressure:1051.9hpa at Valentia, Co.Kerry on 28th January 1905.
Lowest mean sea level pressure: 931.2hpa at Limerick on 28th November 1838.”

https://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-extremes.asp

Irish Times Oct 1999

“In winter time, on the other hand, high pressure is more likely to be found over the cold continents - especially over the vast land areas of eastern Russia where the Siberian winter anticyclone is a dominant feature of the global weather pattern.

Not surprisingly, therefore, it was there in Siberia that the highest pressure ever measured was recorded - 1084 hPa on December 31st, 1968, at a place called Agata, when the temperature was a chilling minus 46 Celsius.

Five other weather stations in the vicinity recorded similarly high pressure values, thus almost eliminating any possibility of error.”

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/recording-high-pressure-in-high-places-1.237822

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 22 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy this morning, generally dry, then some sunny intervals developing by afternoon, highs
8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain at times, southwest winds increasing to 40-70 km/hr. Lows 4-6 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, blustery southwest winds 60-100 km/hr, passing showers but some brighter intervals. Highs near 10 C early in the day, temperatures may be sliding down into the 3-6 C range by evening when there may be an interval of stronger winds (southwest 80-110 km/hr). This may be confined to coastal west and south or could spread a little more widely inland Tuesday night.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and rather cold with showers turning to hail with the risk of thunder, winds southwest 50-80 km/hr, morning lows 2-5 C and afternoon highs about 7 or 8 C.

THURSDAY ... Breezy and colder with passing wintry showers, winds turning northwesterly 40-70 km/hr, morning lows 1-3 C and afternoon highs 4-7 C.

FRIDAY ... Frosty to start, some sunny intervals then overcast with light rain by late in the day, lows -3 to +2 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... The weekend is likely to be quite mild and generally dry, except perhaps for rain near the north coast. Highs 10-12 C expected. This milder spell will gradually transition to somewhat cooler days and cold nights associated with extensive high pressure not very far south or west of Ireland, possibly even right over the country at times, which could lead to some days where fog becomes persistent. That spell would be more likely to break down into some kind of colder northerly flow eventually but that could be a week into February.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with light rain and somewhat windy at times, the distant effects of a powerful coastal storm that did considerable damage around Vancouver and Seattle with gusts over 100 km/hr. It was about 3 C here so a slow thaw continues. Further east, one or two more days of very mild weather will break on Tuesday near the east coast with a sharp drop in temperatures. Snow extends from Denver to about Duluth, MN into northern Ontario.

In Australia, heat wave conditions today were pushed all the way north from Victoria and southern parts of New South Wales by a front that produced some thunderstorms, only near 20 C south of this front, but it remains quite hot further north (35-40 C), Sydney being cooled slightly by sea breezes.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 23 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Passing showers but also some brighter intervals, with a blustery and rising southwest wind that may peak at 80-110 km/hr by late afternoon and evening, especially in Atlantic and south coast counties. Highs 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Continued very windy with rain resuming around midnight, becoming rather heavy at times towards morning, lows 4-7 C. Winds southwest 70-100 km/hr after peak gusts earlier in the night.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy to windy, somewhat colder with frequent showers, winds south to southwest 50-80 km/hr, highs 7-10 C.

THURSDAY ... Colder with passing showers, some of them becoming wintry on hills in north, morning lows 2-4 C and highs 6-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Frosty to start, then increasing cloud, light rain at times by evening. Lows -3 to +2 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

WEEKEND ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, mild, becoming quite windy by later Sunday with rain near north coast, highs both days 10-12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Mild with showers and strong westerly winds on Monday, then turning colder in stages, as it now appears that the Atlantic high may stay further out to sea (guidance is still mixed on this), and quite cold by end of the month into early February, with some colder days still possible in the first week of February.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with light rain and highs near 5 C. Heavy snow has fallen in parts of the upper Midwest and this is moving into north-central Ontario, as the mild spell further south comes to an abrupt end later today.

In Australia, the front mentioned yesterday has drifted a bit further north and brought thunderstorms to Sydney, with the full heat wave conditions now pushed into central and northern NSW and SA. The front loses definition west of Lake Eyre so that tropical heat now covers most of the west as well as north-central regions with the summer monsoon thunderstorms widely scattered across the far north.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE __ Tues 23 Jan 2018 __ 6 p.m.
_____________________________________

Strong winds will develop late this evening in all exposed locations, in particular the southwest, south coast and inland southeast where some gusts to 120 km/hr are possible, as storm Georgina (named earlier today) passes by to the north. Usually on this track the stronger winds are found in Connacht and west Ulster, but in this case the winds are being concentrated into a frontal zone so that maximum gusts are likely to be ahead of the system and well to the south. Peak gusts can be expected around 2300h to 0200h across the south.

Although some gusts to 110 km/hr are likely further north, I think the maximum impact of this event will be in the south this time.

There is an orange level warning in place and I think this will verify in some of the more exposed locations but for most this will probably peak in the yellow warning range. Dublin may see some local windshadow effects from this wind direction and western to northern parts of the capital region may be more exposed than places closer to the Dublin mountains. A strong southerly wind may precede the southwest gales across parts of the Irish Sea coastline.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 24 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for flooding after 15-30 mm rainfalls overnight, some low-lying areas may have standing water and some smaller streams have overflowed their banks so drive with extreme caution especially before full daylight. There is a risk of mudslides in hilly terrain.

TODAY ... Continued rather windy and turning somewhat colder, with frequent passing showers producing some hail and thunder at times, winds southwest 50-80 km/hr with another interval of strong winds likely by evening. Highs 6 to 9 C.

TONIGHT ... Very windy at times (southwest to west 80-110 km/hr) with showers becoming mixed and wintry on some hills by morning. Lows 2-5 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy and cold with passing showers, some wintry on higher terrain in Connacht and Ulster. Hail may be as likely as rain at lower elevations. Winds turning northwesterly 50-70 km/hr, highs only 5 to 8 C.

FRIDAY ... Frosty to start, lows -3 to +2 C. Increasing cloud during the day, moderate westerly winds developing, and milder by evening with occasional rain, highs 7 to 9 C.

SATURDAY ... Mostly cloudy, breezy and mild, highs near 11 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy and mild, rain may brush north coast, highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Turning somewhat colder in the first part of next week, as winds turn more to northwest, but this appears likely to be a glancing blow of colder air headed mainly for Britain and central Europe, highs may not fall much below 8 C before heading back up again at the end of the week. More potent cold outbreaks are possible later towards the second week of February.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast and a bit colder with light snow at times and a high of -1 C.

Looking at Australia, the recent heat wave has subsided back into central regions and a weak front runs east-west through New South Wales with one severe storm complex north of Sydney near Putty.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 25 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Windy and cold with passing showers, some wintry on higher terrain in Connacht and Ulster. Hail may be as likely as rain at lower elevations. Winds gradually turning northwesterly 50-70 km/hr, highs only 5 to 8 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy with some clear intervals, cold, scattered frost with lows about -2 to +3 C.

FRIDAY ... Some frost or fog patches to start, after lows -2 to +3 C. Increasing cloud during the day, moderate westerly winds developing, and milder by evening with occasional rain, highs 7 to 9 C.

SATURDAY ... Mostly cloudy, breezy and mild, highs near 11 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy and mild, rain may brush north coast, highs near 12 C.

MONDAY ... Outbreaks of light rain, mostly in northern counties, slightly cooler except near south coast where highs continuing 10-12 C, otherwise 7-9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Turning slightly cooler during the week, relatively dry, then back to a milder pattern for a few days by Friday 2nd Feb and the following weekend. There are indications of colder weather by about the 6th of February.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with fog, wet snow or sleety rain at times, and now back to snow, not much accumulation yet, highs near 2 C.

It remains quite warm to hot in most of Australia with a few storms scattered around central parts of New South Wales and heavy monsoonal downpours near Darwin on the north coast.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 26 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Increasing cloud, rain by late afternoon west, highs 7-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain (10-20 h hmm), lows 5-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy, mild, occasional light rain mostly north, highs near 11 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, mild, rain at times mostly north, highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Turning slightly colder Monday, showers and rather breezy, highs near 8 C then colder again Tuesday-Wednesday, some mixed wintry showers possble, highs near 5 C.

Following that, first few days of February may turn milder again before a more significant brush with colder air from east.

I am on the road to the coast, hence a shortened forecast today. Drove through mostly dry, cloudy conditions -- snow cover ranges from 50 cm in mountains to bare ground in some central valleys, temps near 3 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 27 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

The weekend will be quite mild with occasional outbreaks of light rain mostly overnight and morning hours, somewhat better chances for bright intervals in the afternoons, and highs near 12 C.

Monday to Wednesday will see a gradual cooling trend as winds become more northwesterly, and there should be a bit more sunshine than many recent days, with brief intervals of sleety rain that could mix with snow on higher ground, highs eventually in the 6-8 C range.

After that, with the new month, it will be back to milder weather for a few days but there continues to be the promise of quite cold weather into the second week of February from more of a northeasterly source than has been the case with earlier cold spells that were mostly northwesterly or northerly.

As I am now at the coast to attend a family wedding then one last slog of moving belongings back to the new home base, I will have to prevail on my fellow Boards weather friends to post a few forecasts until perhaps Wednesday 31st, thanks in advance. Readers, you might expect to find forecasts then at somewhat different times of day than I am able to manage being in my evening time zone about now. ... my local weather is sleety rain that will probably change to snow in the morning then back to rain. I know it sounds appealing and you might want to book a flight, but hold off because four straight days of rain are coming and this may draw in quite a crowd.

sryanbruen

Sunday, 28 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

Sorry this is running late, I had forgotten to post my forecast here on the thread.

TODAY .... Mostly cloudy with some sunny spells in scattered eastern regions. Strong southwesterlies feeding in some very mild air for the time of year. Maximums of 10-13c. If you catch any glimpse of sunshine, it could help to raise temperatures higher than 13c but very unlikely.

TONIGHT .... Very windy with already gusty southwesterlies strengthening further ahead of a band of persistent rain pushing southwards as the night goes on. Very mild ahead of the rain with minimums not getting much below 10c. However, as the rain clears, temperatures will drop somewhat to the mid single figures of 4-6c in the north.

MONDAY .... A cooler day with some heavy rain to start in the south and east clearing during the morning hours before a window of drier and clearer conditions moves down from the northwest with only a few isolated showers. Winds moderate coming from a northwesterly airstream giving off to maximums of 5-8c. Clear skies on Monday night will lead to some icy and frosty conditions, particularly down in the south. Cloud cover across some other parts will help keep temperatures up.

TUESDAY .... Cloudier day generally with thick cloud leading to drizzle in some localised spots. You might be lucky to catch some sunny spells though. Maximums of 5-9c. The cloud will be followed by some rain to come Tuesday night. It will get quite patchy as it moves southeastwards. Wintry showers and some clearer conditions will arrive behind the front. Even with the rain, it will feel chilly everywhere courtesy of the gusty westerlies.

WEDNESDAY .... The wind will be the main story of the day with the wind chill making it feel bitter. Sunshine and showers with some potential snow over higher ground in parts of Connacht and Ulster, mostly of hail and sleet though. Maximums of only 2-6c generally.

THURSDAY .... Similar to Wednesday, it will be a blustery day with sunshine and showers. However, the wind will be relatively lighter on Thursday making it feel not as cold as Wednesday. Maximums of 4-7c.

FRIDAY .... Milder start to the day before rain pushes down from the northwest introducing cooler again behind it. Sunshine and showers in the cooler air. Maximums of 6-10c initially but dropping to 5-7c generally after.

SATURDAY .... Mostly dry and sunny before some rain later on. Maximums of 5-7c.

OUTLOOK .... Everything continues to be up in the air regarding February. The models are certainly on the cold outlook. The GFS 06z earlier today for example was showing an easterly next week, then high pressure over us - meaning anticyclonic gloom - before it would then retrogress up to Greenland well into FI.

There seems to be an unusual warming that is consistent on the previous few GFS runs for around the 11th-13th February. The PV is getting displaced over Canada with much of Northern Europe having a warming event in the stratosphere. The closest match I've found through the archives to what the model has been showing is from February 1982. February 1982 was a mild month along with a mild Spring, so that doesn't look like terribly good news for cold lovers. I will keep you up to date on this situation on the forum.

sryanbruen

Monday, 29 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

I apologise for running late again, this time I had school things to attend to but I hope yesterday's forecast kept you running through for today's weather :P. Somebody else will have to post tomorrow morning if you want a forecast bright and early but if not, I will post it after school.

TONIGHT .... Most places will be clear tonight which will lead to some frost in parts, particularly along eastern and southern regions. In these parts, minimums will get down to -1 or -2c at lowest. Some showers may continue affecting the north and west so temperatures will hold up here around 2 or 3c.

TUESDAY .... Mostly dry if rather cloudy with thick cloud at times causing drizzle. Chance of hazy sunshine in scattered places, mostly the east. Maximums of 6-9c in fairly moderate southwesterly breezes. Towards the evening, rain will push into the northwest and winds will strengthen. Behind the rain, it will turn colder with wintry showers in the north and west along with quite a widespread frost developing.

WEDNESDAY .... A cold blustery day all in all with scattered wintry showers, generally of hail and sleet. Snow still looking like a possibility over higher ground in parts of Connacht and Ulster. Maximums of only 2-6c generally with minimums dropping to -3c possibly on Wednesday night as ice and frost form nationwide.

THURSDAY .... Less frequent showers and less windy than Wednesday will help skies to be more clear across the country during the day. However, still quite cold with maximums of 4-7c mostly in a northwesterly airstream. A band of rain will push eastwards overnight bringing some snow on higher ground potentially with it.

FRIDAY .... Quite different to the outlook from yesterday. Whilst it will be a milder day in quite strong southwesterlies, it looks now like it will be mostly settled. However, rain does eventually show its hand Friday night. I think this proves the uncertainty with everything at the moment regarding February.

SATURDAY .... Rain pushing southwards and becoming quite chilly with plenty of wintry showers behind the rain along with sunny spells. Very windy in a northwesterly airstream.

OUTLOOK .... There is so much uncertainty at the moment that I think it's not worth delving into what's going to happen Saturday afterwards.

An extraordinary warming event has suddenly appeared on the ECM for as early as next week and yes it's going into the Arctic Circle, it's not the displaced PV that I have been discussing. The fact that the GFS is not showing this is surprising. Usually when it comes to warming events, it's the GFS that hypes them up and shows them to their extreme but the ECM is doing so right now. I cannot confirm if what the ECM is showing would be near SSW levels (which just to be clear in other words means reversing the zonal westerlies) but what I can say is that if it were to come off, it would certainly disturb the PV and northern blocking would get itself going sometime 2 weeks minimum after the initial warming occurrence.

After a brief disappearance of the PV displacement yesterday, the GFS is now showing it again with the PV over Canada and the warming occurring over northern Europe, honestly I am lost right now with both of these models showing different sorts of warming events. Please keep staying in tune with me if you want to know the effects or updates of any of these stratospheric events. I'm all ears. If you have any questions, don't be afraid to post in the Winter discussion thread.

sryanbruen

Tuesday, 30 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TONIGHT .... Rain will push down from the northwest and becoming very patchy by the time it reaches the south and east. Winds will freshen at the same time coming from a westerly airstream. A clearance will follow the rain overnight bringing frost and icy patches along with it. Some showers could turn wintry with the potential for snow over high ground. Minimums getting down to -1c at their lowest, generally 1 or 2c.

WEDNESDAY .... Widespread showers on a gusty northwesterly flow. Showers will be of hail, sleet, rain and snow over higher ground. There is a yellow warning for some snow and ice tomorrow in Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Louth and Leitrim. Winds generally between 40-60km/hr, though certainly the chance of stronger gusts. Wind warning from Met Éireann is currently yellow for much of the western coastline regions in the range of 55-60km/hr. Maximums generally of 4-6c. However, where you have the snow, temperatures may struggle to reach much above 4c. Quite a blustery day overall ending on a cold night with minimums just above freezing courtesy of the strong winds but the wind chill factor will make it feel far colder.

THURSDAY .... Another fairly blustery day but winds will be lighter and showers will be less widespread allowing for more sunny spells to develop across regions, especially in the eastern half. It will be a rather milder day with maximums around 6-9c but it will not feel all that mild in the Winter sunshine and especially if you have that bitter northwesterly wind. Thursday night will be very cold with a hard frost forming in minimums getting below 0c quite widely. However, as cloud tries to move in from the west overnight, temperatures will begin to rise here.

FRIDAY .... Frost clearing during Friday morning with the chance of some hazy sunshine. However, rain will push down from the northwest during the afternoon into the evening. The rain light at first, but will turn heavy and persistent for a time overnight. A windy night, fresh and gusty southwest to west winds will increase strong in places. More showery weather looks set to follow from the Atlantic later in the night and early Saturday morning. Maximums of 6-9c.

SATURDAY .... Gusty northwesterly winds will bring in a lot of showers across Ireland. These mostly of hail and rain. There seems to be a very slim chance of snow right now if any for Saturday. Sunny spells in between the showers but feeling quite cold in maximums of only 4-7c.

SUNDAY .... Showers should be less widespread bringing in more sunny spells to be enjoyed. Winds will pay back a touch to moderate northwesterlies in maximums of 6-9c.

M.T. Cranium

^ This guy's good ^

So I just got in at the ungodly hour of 0400h and we have a full moon going into total eclipse here, but with a lot of cloud around so just getting the odd glimpse of an almost fully covered lunar orb.

Had a quick look at the model runs and can see that further cold outbreaks are very likely beyond this one, with limited warming between them as flow mostly from northwest or even north, and just occasionally relaxes a bit to westerly to allow in a slightly milder flow but overall it looks like the first half of February will be 3 to 5 degrees below normal in temperature and fairly dry which must be good news after all the rain recently.

Will get back in gear for forecasting later but probably won't post until Thursday morning 0600h.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 1st February, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sunny intervals, cold and breezy with a few passing showers, some of them wintry in higher parts of the north and west. Highs 5 to 7 C. Winds northwest 40 to 60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Clearing with widespread frost likely, lows -4 to -1 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny with increasing cloud, light rain in western counties by late in the day, highs 6 to 8 C.

SATURDAY ... Early morning sleet or snow in parts of east Ulster and Leinster with remnants of earlier rain moving through east Munster and south Leinster, then clearing for a while before widespread wintry showers develop in a very cold northwesterly wind 50-70 km/hr. Morning lows 1 to 3 C then highs only 3 to 5 C.

SUNDAY ... Heavy frost will persist for much of the day in some parts, despite some wintry sunshine, increasing cloud towards afternoon and sleet or light rain by evening mostly in western counties. Lows -5 to -2 C and highs 2 to 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Turning quite cold again Monday and Tuesday of next week, and slow moderation of temperatures later next week although only above average briefly by about Saturday 10th, then a more variable regime with somewhat less of an arctic influence, although the occasional colder day still present.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly sunny and reasonably mild at 4 C. We have a rather crusty 10-15 cm snow cover left with large piles where plows have been active, but this increases to 40-50 cms in nearby higher terrain. The past few days have been reasonably mild in the Midwestern states but colder air is on the way south and will soon be dominating the weather again in eastern as well as central U.S. and Canada while the west remains rather mild generally.

It appears to have cooled off in Australia since I was reporting on their weather about a week ago -- temperatures late Thursday in most of the major cities are somewhat below normal (generally only in the low 20s although 31 degrees at Perth), seasonable heat is confined to central regions and the north is well into the usual summer monsoon wet season.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 2 February, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals in west and north, isolated morning sleet showers in west Munster, then more generally increasing cloud, light rain in western counties by late in the day, highs 6 to 8 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain turning to sleet or wet snow as it moves east across the country, little snow accumulation expected except on hills in Leinster, lows 1 to 3 C.

SATURDAY ... Early morning sleet or snow in parts of east Ulster and Leinster with remnants of earlier rain moving through east Munster and south Leinster, then clearing for a while before widespread wintry showers develop in a very cold northwesterly wind 50-70 km/hr. Morning lows 1 to 3 C then highs only 3 to 5 C.

SUNDAY ... Heavy frost will persist for much of the day in some parts, despite some wintry sunshine, increasing cloud towards afternoon and sleet or light rain by evening mostly in western counties. Lows -5 to -2 C and highs 2 to 7 C.

MONDAY ... Sharp frosts again for most, although milder under cloud in west, morning lows -5 to +2 C, then increasing cloud, after some sunshine in east, continued cold with sleet or snow developing later in the day, highs 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will return to very cold northerly winds and scattered wintry showers although decent amounts of sunshine likely both days, morning lows about -2 C Tuesday and -6 C Wednesday, afternoon highs both days 2 to 6 C with moderate northerly winds 40-60 km/hr at times, snow accumulations likely on higher ground.

THURSDAY could produce a widespread light snowfall depending on how cold the lower levels remain as a weak front tries to push in from the Atlantic, but without much support temperatures may remain close to freezing. This situation will need to be watched, and could turn into a moderate snowfall event.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and still rather cold, highs near 5 C.

OUTLOOK ... There are some indications of a brief milder interval around Saturday when temperatures could reach near normal values (highs 7 to 9 C) but then guidance begins to diverge into many different looking solutions that include some snow by Sunday or Monday. Stay tuned as this longer range outlook is too uncertain to get into specific details yet.

My local weather on Thursday (back home in the mountains of south central B.C. now) was overcast with large snowflakes drifting down at times, about 5 cm eventual accumulation, and highs near -1 C. A sleety mix is falling on the east coast of the U.S. overnight but snow is restricted to inland hilly areas. Colder air is spreading back into eastern and central regions of North America.

Down under, the cooler trend continues in most of the larger cities of the southeast, with a front pushing well north of Sydney towards south Queensland. There are some heavy storms in central Queensland in the tropical air mass ahead of that front but little other active weather today.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 3 February, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some sunny intervals in Leinster amd east Munster this morning, as wintry showers spread into other regions on gusty northwesterly winds of 50-70 km/hr. Temperatures will remain cold in the range of 3 to 7 C.

TONIGHT ... Partial clearing as wintry showers become more confined to coastal districts, by midnight or later mainly near the east coast, with some falls of light snow possible inland at elevations above 200 metres. Quite cold with scattered frosts developing. Lows -2 to +2 C.

SUNDAY ... Frost will persist for part of the morning hours in some inland valleys, despite some wintry sunshine, with increasing cloud towards evening in some coastal parts of northwestern counties. Highs 4 to 7 C.

MONDAY ... Sharp frosts again for most, although milder under cloud in west, morning lows -5 to +2 C, then increasing cloud, after some sunshine in east, continued cold with sleet or snow developing later in the day, highs 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will return to very cold northerly winds and scattered wintry showers although decent amounts of sunshine likely both days, morning lows about -2 C Tuesday and -6 C Wednesday, afternoon highs both days 2 to 6 C with moderate northerly winds 40-60 km/hr at times, snow accumulations likely on higher ground.

THURSDAY could produce a widespread light snowfall or mixed rain and wet snow, and intervals of sleet, depending on how cold the lower levels remain as a weak front tries to push in from the Atlantic, but with temperatures remaining low (between 3 and 7 C)..

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with wintry showers, moderate northwest winds and still rather cold, lows near -1 C and highs near 5 C.

OUTLOOK ... There will likely be a brief milder interval around Saturday 10th when temperatures could reach near normal values (highs 8 to 10 C) with rain at times, but then it appears likely to turn somewhat colder again for the following week, albeit not as cold as this week, with highs of about 6 to 8 C and slight frosts at times.

My local weather on Friday was foggy with light rain at lower elevations and snow just above our valley floor, about 5 cms new snow received higher up, with highs in the rain near 3 C.

In Australia, the cooler air from the south has pushed all the way into south Queensland giving Brisbane an unusually cool day (low 20s), but further south, that air mass is heating up to give Melbourne and Adelaide a warmer and sunny day today near 30 C. The only stormy weather appears to be in central Queensland.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 4 February, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERTS for severe frosts tonight and accumulating snow (5-8 cm possible) Monday night in central and eastern counties.

TODAY ... Sunny and cold in most places, just a few isolated hail or snow showers moving inland from the Irish Sea between Dublin and Wexford. Highs 4 to 7 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear and very cold with widespread severe frosts, lows -6 to -2 C. There may be some cloud near west coast and this may hold temperatures closer to zero degrees locally there. Icy stretches on roads in many inland regions.

MONDAY ... Increasing cloud for west will begin during the morning, but some sunny intervals will persist to early afternoon in the east. It will remain very cold with temperatures between 2 and 6 C by mid-afternoon, coldest inland Leinster and midlands.

MONDAY NIGHT ... Rain moving into western counties during the evening will quickly turn to sleet and then snow further east, and 5-8 cms could accumulate by morning in many parts of the midlands, Leinster, inland east Munster and southeast Ulster.

TUESDAY ... Snow or sleet ending, some clearing then more wintry showers or (mainly northwest) intervals of snow in very cold northwest winds 40-70 km/hr. Some sunny intervals also, with highs 2 to 6 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, wintry showers and cold, morning lows -6 to -3 C, afternoon highs 3 to 7 C.

THURSDAY ... Snow or sleet likely, temperatures zero to 3 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, very cold, isolated wintry showers, highs near 5 C. Sleet turning to rain overnight.

SATURDAY ... Milder with gusty southwest winds, rain at times, highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Turning much colder again by Sunday 11th, and staying rather cold all week, although probably not quite as cold as this coming week, still some frosts most nights and highs only 5 to 8 C. Further into the month, some rather active but still wintry patterns are showing up, confidence is low on details but there could be further snowfalls to or beyond mid-February.

My local weather on Saturday was foggy and mild with light rain at times, highs reaching about 4 C. We have colder air poised to move in here tonight and turn this light rain to snow on Sunday. Further east, it has turned quite cold in most places, and a wintry mix is developing over the inland southeast, turning to wet snow in the mid-Atlantic states and then 2-5 cm snowfalls further northeast, not a big storm but a nuisance event that will make highways slippery in many parts of the northeast on Super Bowl Sunday (the game is indoors in Minnesota, outside it will be -15 C so that's just as well).

Australia appears to be generally fair and warmer today in many parts, as the recent unseasonable cool spell fades out of the picture. Still a little below normal mid-summer temperatures in parts of NSW and QLD.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 5 February, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for snowfall and icy roads developing in central and eastern counties overnight, 3 to 6 cms expected with potential 5 to 10 cms on higher ground in Wicklow and Dublin. Further wintry showers on Tuesday may bring 2 to 5 cms snowfalls in some parts of the northwest that escape this first round of snowfall.

TODAY ... After a frosty and in some places foggy start to the day, there will be generally increasing cloud during the morning, but some sunny intervals may persist to early afternoon in the east despite patchy low cloud. It will remain very cold with temperatures between 3 and 7 C by mid-afternoon, coldest inland Leinster and midlands. Temperatures will fall back to near -1 C in the east this evening.

TONIGHT ... Rain moving into western counties during the late afternoon and evening (3-6 mm) will turn to sleet (inland Galway-Roscommon and parts of west Munster) and then snow further east, and 3-6 cms could accumulate by morning in many parts of the midlands, Leinster, inland east Munster and southeast Ulster. There could be local accumulations of 5 to 10 cms in higher parts of Dublin and Wicklow. There is a slight risk of freezing rain in some central valleys or freezing drizzle mixing into the snowfall, making for a very slippery morning on the roads for Tuesday.

TUESDAY ... Snow or sleet ending, some clearing then more wintry showers or (mainly northwest) intervals of snow with 2 to 5 cms on some hills in Connacht and west Ulster, in very cold northwest winds 40-70 km/hr. Some sunny intervals also, these more frequent in east and near south coast, with highs only 3 to 6 C (possibly near 8 C in coastal west Munster and near southeast coast).

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, wintry showers and cold, morning lows -6 to -3 C leading to heavy frosts that may persist well into the morning, then afternoon highs 3 to 7 C. Sleet may turn to rain in west during the late afternoon or evening.

THURSDAY ... Rain, sleet, or snow during the early morning, then partly cloudy, breezy and rather cold, further wintry showers developing afternoon and evening as winds increase to westerly 40-70 km/hr. Temperatures may be somewhat higher during the early morning hours to almost mid-day (4 to 7 C) then fall back to around 3 to 5 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, cold, isolated wintry showers, highs near 5 C. Sleet turning to rain overnight as temperatures begin to rise towards 8-10 C by Saturday morning.

SATURDAY ... Milder with gusty southwest winds, rain at times, highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Turning much colder again by Sunday 11th, and staying rather cold all week, although probably not quite as cold as this coming week, still some frosts most nights and highs only 5 to 8 C. As long as the flow remains more westerly than northerly, precipitation will be sleety with snow limited to hills mostly. Further into the month, some rather active but still wintry patterns are showing up, confidence is low on details but there could be further snowfalls to or beyond mid-February.

My local weather on Sunday was foggy with persistent wet snow that began to accumulate as temperatures fell slowly below -2 C, and now we have about 15 cms over the pre-existing saturated 10-15 cm pack (and all the piles of plowed snow are nicely covered up too). I foresee a fair amount of shovelling as part of my Monday, waiting for it to stop first. Very cold air is moving southeast to cover most of central and eastern North America this week, and sleet or snow will push through the inland northeast followed by some lake effect snowfalls but otherwise generally clearing ahead of another weak system expected to bring sleet or snow to parts of the inland northeast by Thursday.

Seasonably warm and dry weather covers almost all of Australia away from the Darwin region where it's humid with scattered monsoonal storms.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 6 February, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Very cold with gusty northwest winds developing, scattered sleety showers this morning will clear east giving brief sunny spells followed by further wintry showers, and potential for some heavy falls of snow or hail accompanied by thunder in parts of Connacht, west Munster, Ulster, and midlands. Some remnants of these heavier showers may reach east and south coasts but sunshine may be more frequent there. Winds northwest 40-70 km/hr and highs only 3 to 7 C, with temperatures prone to falling close to -1 C during heavier wintry showers. Icy roads in some parts of Leinster this morning, and then developing over inland parts of the north and west by this afternoon where snow or hail accumulates.

TONIGHT ... Partial clearing, wintry showers more confined to coastal northwest, severe frosts likely inland, lows -6 to -3 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, continuing cold with further wintry showers, then turning a bit milder late in the day with sleet turning to rain in west and north, highs reaching 7 C.

THURSDAY ... Milder for a time with rain or showers, highs near 8 C, then turning much colder with snow or sleet showers returning from the northwest as winds veer to that direction, temperatures falling rapidly to near 1 C. Winds west to northwest about 50 to 80 km/hr adding chill especially afternoon and evening.

FRIDAY ... Windy and cold with passing wintry showers, lows near -2 C and highs near 5 C.

SATURDAY ... Hope nobody gets dizzy reading this, turning milder again with southwest winds 50-70 km/hr and rain at times, highs near 11 C, then much colder late in the day as winds veer to westerly 60-90 km/hr. Wintry showers overnight into Sunday.

SUNDAY and MONDAY ... Windy and cold with occasional snow or hail showers. Highs about 4 C.

OUTLOOK ... It seems that this pattern is locking in for several weeks and further brief milder intervals can be expected about every third day (at the moment the models are suggesting Tuesday 13th and late in the following week), with colder days between where snow becomes possible. No definite signs of anything easterly in this cold regime, just a succession of very cold maritime arctic air masses that make a fairly fast journey from Greenland to Ireland, with the Atlantic trying to maintain some control with brief milder visitations. There is some bitterly cold air lurking over Scandinavia so if the wind ever does turn northeasterly, even colder weather could follow.

My local weather on Monday was overcast but fairly bright and just a few light flurries of snow with highs near 2 C.

Australia remains in a very warm, dry spell with highs earlier today (it's evening there now) near or above 30 C in the larger cities.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 7 February, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... A few sunny intervals in east and south, becoming mostly overcast later as cloud already spreading into Connacht reaches the rest of the country, followed by outbreaks of sleet or wet snow turning to rain (starting as rain near the west coast), as temperatures slowly recover to more normal values near 7 C in a developing southwesterly wind of 50-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Any remaining sleet in Leinster or east Ulster turning to rain, with about 5 to 10 mm expected in general before more showery or drizzly conditions develop towards morning, temperatures steady 7 to 9 C, winds west-southwest 50 to 80 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Milder for a time with rain or showers, highs near 8 C, possibly reaching 10 C south coast briefly, then turning much colder from the northwest, with snow or sleet showers returning as winds veer to the northwest, with temperatures falling rapidly to near 1 C. Winds west to northwest about 50 to 80 km/hr adding chill especially afternoon and evening. Some heavy snow showers likely in Donegal, and north Connacht.

FRIDAY ... Windy and cold with passing wintry showers, lows near -2 C and highs near 5 C. Once again turning milder in the evening with sleet turning to rain developing.

SATURDAY ... Turning milder again with southwest winds 50-70 km/hr and rain at times, highs near 11 C, then much colder late in the day as winds veer to westerly 60-90 km/hr. Wintry showers overnight into Sunday with renewed snow accumulations in the north and west.

SUNDAY and MONDAY ... Windy and cold with occasional snow or hail showers. Highs about 4 C. Winds generally westerly about 50-70 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Windy and milder with rain briefly, but once again, this warm sector will only last a matter of hours before colder air blasts in from the northwest. This next push may be stronger with widespread snow showers likely and temperatures struggling to reach 2 C in bitter northwest winds.

Further down the road, this cold spell might have a brief milder interval before a change to easterly flow and a brighter, less windy variety of cold with better snow chances for the east coast, although even this pattern itself is not guaranteed yet, as it is not showing on all guidance. Very cold air is filtering into Scandinavia already from northwest Russia and temperatures as low as -35 C have been reported in northern Sweden and Finland, so there is some potent cold air available if the winds do turn in that direction. The Baltic Sea and to some extent parts of the North Sea also are both running warmer than normal which would fill any easterly flow with a lot of moisture. And we have not seen much easterly flow this winter but a "stratospheric warming" event is forecast and this can create blocking at higher latitudes necessary to get the winds into that direction. Let's say the chances are fairly good for a spell of easterly winds, while not a certainty yet.

My local weather was pleasant (for a change) with the sun making a rare appearance (this is a very sunny location from March to October but winter cloud is the norm due to inversions over the valleys here). It was relatively mild by afternoon reaching 4 C. However, it has begun to snow this evening and we're expecting 20 cms on Wednesday, possibly mixing with rain at times. Avalanche danger is high, a local highway was closed for two days recently while crews cleared a massive snowslide (posted a picture of this in the snow and cold weather thread).

Snow is developing in the Ohio valley and will spread into the inland northeastern U.S. late today, forecasts are calling for sleet or rain on the coast but 5 to 15 cms of snow inland, and from Boston north along the coast also.

There is still very little active weather in Australia today, but parts of Japan have received heavy snowfalls in the past few days and it's unusually cold in many parts of east Asia as that huge Siberian high recently split, part of it ended up in Finland and another larger part spread southeast into Mongolia and northeast China. The timing is good as the Winter Olympics begin on Friday in South Korea at a site that needs at least some artificial snow, so a mild spell would not have been great news there.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 8 February, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for sudden onset (or return) of wintry conditions especially in northern and northwestern counties late afternoon and evening, and to some extent across all other regions, as much colder air accompanied by squally showers turning to hail and snow sweep in with a strong cold front. It will be quite mild until this hits, so be ready, timing is about 2-4 p.m. Donegal and north Connacht, to 7-9 p.m. Leinster and south coast. Temperatures will drop sharply during these intervals and roads may become icy especially in the north and northwest. Shifting gusty winds may challenge drivers so expect that change from west-southwest to northwest if you're on the road during this time.


TODAY ... Milder for a time with rain or showers, highs 8 to 11 C, then turning much colder from the northwest this afternoon west and evening for eastern counties, with thundery showers turning to snow or sleet in many parts of the north and some central and southwestern counties, as winds veer to the northwest, with temperatures then falling rapidly to near 1 C. Winds west to northwest about 50 to 80 km/hr adding chill especially afternoon and evening. Some heavy snow showers likely in Donegal, and north Connacht by evening, 3 to 5 cm accumulations in a few places.

TONIGHT ... Windy and very cold with passing snow or sleet showers, some with thunder, turning to hail closer to east and south coasts. Lows eventually falling to about -2 C and feeling like -7 C in strong northwest winds 50-80 km/hr. Near-blizzard conditions are possible in higher parts of west Ulster and a few spots in north Connacht.

FRIDAY ... Windy and cold with passing wintry showers, lows near -2 C and highs near 5 C. Once again turning milder in the evening with sleet turning to rain developing.

SATURDAY ... Turning milder again with southwest winds 50-70 km/hr and rain at times, highs near 11 C, then much colder late in the day as winds veer to westerly 60-90 km/hr. There may be a spell of stronger winds in the north by afternoon as an intense cold front develops, with rain turning to sleet then snow across parts of Ulster and north Connacht. This front may be somewhat less intense further south but there will be a noticeable temperature drop shortly after sunset to near zero degrees C. Wintry showers overnight into Sunday with renewed snow accumulations in the north and west.

SUNDAY and MONDAY ... Windy and cold with occasional snow or hail showers. Highs about 4 C on Sunday and 7 C on Monday. Frosts both mornings may be rather severe in places with lows -3 to -6 C. Winds generally westerly about 50-70 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Windy and slightly milder with rain briefly, highs 6 to 8 C, but once again, this will only last a matter of hours before colder air blasts in from the northwest. This next push may be stronger with widespread snow showers likely and temperatures struggling to reach 2 C, and one source of guidance is now suggesting that the storm track may drop south of Ireland mid-week to produce snowfall chances as lows move past the south coast into southern England, temperatures might be close to 1 C in these mixed precipitation type scenarios with snowfall potential becoming fairly widespread. If this fails to materialize it will likely remain cold and windy from the northwest instead, so either way a fairly similar result just with different wind directions involved. The GFS model has also returned to showing a cold easterly flow in about two weeks, something it was doing earlier but dropped for a time on Wednesday's updates. This still seems to be about a one in three chance perhaps, and alternatives might not be a lot milder either, but other models have less output past ten days so it's hard to compare; also that stratospheric warming event looms as a big wild card, whether it's cause or effect of the blocking, it seems equally hard to predict with precision.

My local weather on Wednesday was somewhat of a near miss with heavy snow up to our north but only light snow locally, with temperatures steady near 1 C, perhaps 8 cms fell eventually and it's still coming down rather sporadically; 45 cms fell across parts of central B.C. in the past day. The sloppy mess that hit the northeastern U.S. has moved into eastern Canada tonight leaving the door open for colder temperatures there.

Conditions remain similar to previous days in Australia with most populated areas having a warm, dry day but some cloud has pushed into Victoria state and the tropical thunderstorms look a bit more intense over the Darwin region at the present time.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 9 February, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Windy and cold with passing wintry showers, with snow less frequent in the mix by afternoon, sleet or hail more likely then, but all through that some sunny intervals as well with temperatures slowly rising to about 5 or 6 C by late afternoon with the last of any sleet turning to rain by early evening, winds backing to southwest and increasing to 70-100 km/hr, some strong gusts near west coast by evening.

TONIGHT ... Windy with 5-10 mm rainfalls, winds southwest 70-100 km/hr, temperatures continuing to edge upwards towards 9 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and mild although in the strong winds not feeling all that warm, temperatures steady near 10 C, rain easing to showers but squally at times with hail. There may be an interval of very strong winds especially through central counties mid-afternoon, details on this may change so stay tuned as it could be briefly severe (gusts to 120 km/hr possible). It will then turn much colder as winds veer rapidly to northwest 70-100 km/hr with wintry showers returning by evening, temperatures about 2 C by then.

SUNDAY ... Windy and very cold with snow showers likely, 1 to 3 cm accumulations in some places (3 to 6 cm higher ground northwest), winds westerly 60 to 90 km/hr and temperatures steady 2 to 5 C.

MONDAY ... Windy and cold with intervals of sleet likely, some snow accumulations on hills, despite southerly winds 50-80 km/hr (and another interval of very strong winds possible), highs near 6 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain or sleet, snow on hills, in northeast winds as low pressure forms to the south, but not quite enough cold air feeding in to make this a snowfall event (at present reading anyway), highs near 7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Very windy and cold with showers of sleet, hail and snow developing in gale to storm force southwest winds 70-120 km/hr (strongest winds in north and west). Temperatures steady near 7 C but falling off during heavier bouts of wintry showers.

OUTLOOK ... Very unsettled and rather cold once this mid-week windstorm situation passes, little change in the slightly below normal temperature trend. The longer term indications remain very unclear beyond next week with cold influences from east and northwest seeming to want to battle for dominance, but either way it will probably stay quite cold.

My local weather on Thursday was foggy with light rain and a high near 2 C, some snow fell at times last night but the system then weakened and is now falling apart as colder air pushes in from the north. A snowfall of 10-20 cms has developed over much of the lower Great Lakes region from a frontal boundary that is bringing arctic air of about -10 C up against much milder Pacific air masses near 10 C in the Ohio valley and central plains states. This will push into northern New England over the weekend leaving the east coast in the milder air mass for several days.

Australia remains largely dry and sunny, although rather cloudy around Sydney in the past few hours.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 10 February, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for strong winds and localized heavy rainfall by this afternoon and evening ...
the strong winds would most likely develop from about Mayo-Galway east to Meath-Dublin and would be less of a factor near the south coast although moderately strong in all other counties. Peak gusts could be 100 km/hr to as high as 120 km/hr depending on how well-organized this front becomes (guidance is quite spread out). The heavy rainfall will be found to the north of the strong wind zone, from north/central Mayo east towards southeast Ulster, including Sligo, Leitrim, Cavan and Monaghan. Local amounts of 30-40 mm are possible, considerably less is expected further south and somewhat less to the north of this zone ... also, advance alert for snow accumulations in Connacht and Ulster by Sunday morning, 3-5 cms especially on higher ground seems likely, scattered 1-3 cm covering is possible elsewhere although not in all locations. ... I hope to update this alert for strong winds and heavy rainfall before 6 p.m., as the situation will develop rather quickly close to landfall.

TODAY ... Breezy to windy and milder than recent days, passing showers could be locally heavy and squally, in particular south Connacht to central Leinster. Winds generally westerly 50-70 km/hr could briefly gust higher with hail and thunder possible. Highs near 11 C. Becoming very windy in south Connacht and later in north-central Leinster with outbreaks of heavy rain from north Connacht to southeast Ulster. Details in the alert above.

TONIGHT ... Turning sharply colder around sunset in west coast counties, and during the later evening near the east coast, as winds turn northwesterly 50-70 km/hr after the above mentioned interval of strong winds. Rain turning to sleet and then snow across parts of the north with eventual accumulations (mainly on higher terrain) of about 5 cms. Scattered 1-3 cm snowfalls further south by morning. Lows near -1 C but feeling closer to -7 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy and cold with passing snow showers, more of a wintry mix near sea level by afternoon but snow showers persisting on higher ground, accumulations coming and going with partial melting in between heavy showers. Highs 3 to 6 C. Winds westerly 50-70 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Windy, mixed wintry showers or sleet turning to rain for a time in the evening, then that will turn back to sleet and snow overnight, as winds become strong south to southwest 70-110 km/hr, veering westerly and easing overnight. Morning lows near -2 C inland, and highs 5 to 8 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, outbreaks of rain or sleet at times, becoming quite windy again later in the day (south to southwest 50-80 km/hr), lows 1 to 3 C and highs 6 to 8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Very windy with squally showers, some mixed wintry showers developing later as winds veer from south-southwest 70-110 km/hr to west-southwest 60-90 km/hr. Lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... It seems likely to remain quite unsettled, breezy to windy at times, and somewhat colder than average, and there is about a one in three chance of an easterly spell of winds bringing quite cold towards Ireland's east coast, but this is only supported by some of the global models, others maintain a cool westerly sort of regime.

My local weather on Friday turned very windy in the early morning hours, northerly winds get channelled down the nearby lake and we had strong gusts for a few hours as colder air arrived. The day was cloudy and cold, still a bit windy, with occasional snowflakes but no new accumulations. Our recent messy wet snow surfaces have frozen and there's ice where slush had accumulated. Heavy snow continued most of the day from Chicago to Detroit to Toronto, rather localized but 20-30 cms in some places. Milder air is spreading east to the south of that disturbance.

In Australia, warm and dry weather continues for many but cloud has spread into border areas between Victoria and New South Wales, and there are scattered heavy thunderstorms in north-central WA state, not affecting Perth however.

Watch for updates between 5 and 6 p.m. on today's late afternoon severe weather risks.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Sat 10 Feb 2018 _ 5:30 p.m.
___________________________________

Low pressure is gradually developing over western counties at this time, which may mean that the strongest wind gusts will occur over eastern counties later this evening. There is still some time available for strong gusts to develop in Galway (some reports around 80 km/hr already) but more likely for gusts over 100 km/hr would be Dublin and Meath by about 9-10 p.m. ... as this zone of strong winds expands through central counties in the next two hours, gusts to about 90 km/hr are likely in east Galway, Roscommon, Offaly, north Tipps and later into Kildare and Westmeath. Gusts to about 110 km/hr are possible in Dublin, Kildare and Meath later this evening.

There is also a slight risk of a gusty thunderstorm further south along a developing frontal boundary that is currently in northeast Cork and western Tipperary; this may produce a few strong gusts and hail in counties of the inland southeast this evening.

As to the rainfall alert, most of that rain has already fallen except in the eastern half of the country where northern sections still have about 10 mm left to fall, amounts further south more like 5 mm additional. Watch for some flooded roadways in Connacht (central Galway at least, according to reports on the event discussion thread). Amounts have been heavy from about Newport to Cavan.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 11 February, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for outbreaks of snow, sleet or hail that may make driving difficult at times, more frequently in higher parts of the west and north, but not confined only to those regions, as wintry showers could develop anywhere, accompanied by some thunder at times. Strong winds will complicate the driving challenges and so will brief intervals of dazzling sunshine.

TODAY ... Windy and very cold with outbreaks of snow, sleet or hail, roads may become slippery and in some places icy, and higher parts of Connacht and Ulster could experience white-out conditions at times with 3-5 cm snowfall potential. Other parts of the country may see occasional coatings of 1-2 cm snow or heavy deposits of hail. West to northwest winds 60-90 km/hr (higher gusts in west coast exposed locations) and highs only 2 to 6 C, feeling more like -4 C in the strong winds.

TONIGHT ... Continued rather windy and very cold, wintry showers more confined to north and west, lows near -2 C inland.

MONDAY ... Breezy to windy and while still cold, somewhat milder by afternoon when snow or sleet should be mostly confined to higher elevations and rain will develop, although turning to snow on hills, in strong south to southwest winds that may peak around 70-110 km/hr by evening. Temperatures will continue to climb back slowly towards 7 or 8 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy and colder for the first part of the day with snow showers, then as winds back to southerly, rain may develop especially over northwestern counties, with moderate south to southwest winds 50-80 km/hr by evening. Lows near 1 C and highs near 8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and somewhat milder for the morning hours, then turning colder by afternoon and evening. Very strong winds could brush outer coasts of Connacht and Ulster but for most, expect southwesterly 60-90 km/hr, with intervals of rain turning more to sleet or wet snow in some higher locations by late in the day.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are looking quite cold with passing wintry showers, moderate westerly winds, highs about 5 or 6 C.

By the end of the week, we are basically confronted with two different outcomes, with one group of global models indicating a blocking high pushing back against the weak Atlantic flow and taking over in the last week of the month, with some very wintry looking maps on offer for the end of February. Confidence is naturally low on that outcome this far out but it does blend with the earlier ideas being floated around in forecasting circles about an impending stratospheric warming event. However, other guidance just shows the weak and chilly Atlantic flow persisting into that final week. So it's a "battle of the models" and all we can do is pull up a chair and watch.

My local weather was entirely clear for the whole day, which is probably the first time since we made our move to this new location, and we had spectacular views of the heavy new snowfalls that happened on local mountain slopes from our recent rainy and foggy spell "down below." It was quite cold with a northerly wind and highs of about -2 C. The weather in eastern North America continues to set up a battleground with snow around Illinois and Michigan, sleet further south and east, and rain moving up from the Gulf states towards the northeast coastal cities where this week will be rather mild and foggy (highs in New York City for example about 8 to 11 C).

Nothing too dramatic happening in Australia, will resume those reports when the summer produces any active weather.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 12 February, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Breezy to windy, sunny intervals with passing wintry showers, and while still cold this morning, turning somewhat milder by afternoon when any remnant snow or sleet showers should be mostly confined to higher elevations and rain will develop in strong south to southwest winds that may peak around 70-110 km/hr by evening. Temperatures will continue to climb back slowly towards 7 or 8 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain will end with an interval of sleet or snow that might require a forecast update later this afternoon, as conditions appear marginally favourable for some accumulations in parts of Leinster overnight, with clearing further west, as winds ease and shift more to a westerly direction 40-60 km/hr. Lows by morning will be close to 1 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy and colder for the first part of the day with snow showers, then as winds back to southerly, rain may develop especially over northwestern counties, with moderate south to southwest winds 50-80 km/hr by evening. Lows near 1 C and highs near 8 C. Rain will be more persistent Tuesday night in strong south to southwest winds 50-80 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and somewhat milder for the morning hours, then turning colder by afternoon and evening. Very strong winds could brush outer coasts of Connacht and Ulster but for most, expect southwesterly 60-90 km/hr, with intervals of rain turning more to sleet or wet snow in some higher locations by late in the day.
Lows near 5 C and highs near 8 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are looking quite cold with passing wintry showers, moderate westerly winds, highs about 5 to 7 C.

The weekend of 17th-18th and perhaps several days after that will be influenced by building high pressure, this is a slight change from the easterly scenario that was discussed yesterday and all guidance seems to favour this now so it tends to be a compromise between those formerly different outcomes, so while it will be rather cold under this high pressure, with sharp frosts likely, there won't be enough of an easterly flow as it now appears to create much potential for wintry showers on the east coast. The situation beyond this period of settled weather is quite uncertain and could still go either way (back to milder southwesterly flow, or eventually more of a draw from the east if this high were to drift back out to the west towards the end of the month).

My local weather was partly cloudy and cold with highs only reaching -2 C, and it's clear and very cold at the present time.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE __ Mon 12 Feb 2018 __ 10 p.m.
____________________________________

A front now crossing Ireland seems to be developing some small-scale ripples or "meso-scale lows" that will tend to produce additional sleet or (mostly at higher elevations) snow in a few locations this evening and past midnight for the southeast. One such feature has developed over Mayo and there is potential for 3-5 cm snowfalls on higher ground in north Connacht and later through most of Ulster if that feature continues to track east. I am watching for similar development around 11 p.m. in the inland southeast that could produce a burst of heavy sleet or wet snowfall especially over the higher parts of Wicklow and north Wexford. Your best bet is to watch reports on the forum thread discussing the current cold spell and snowfall, as this could develop over a short time frame. Having said that, I think there's going to be quite a few places where the event ends with rain turning to sleet for a short time then clearing, and in terms of population rather than area, that might be more the case.

One other note of interest is that the GFS model has returned to showing a significant easterly spell in about ten days time, so that back and forth continues, will have a closer look at that in the morning forecast. Local weather is glorious sunshine, not even a contrail in sight.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 13 February, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Windy and cold with a few outbreaks of snow or sleet, more likely in the west and north but not exclusively there, with the potential for 1 to 3 cm brief covering of snow, some icy roads as a result. There will also be some sunny intervals in the mix, and later on more of a wintry mix of showers as highs reach about 4 to 6 C in gusty westerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr. By late afternoon and evening, these winds will have backed into a south to southwest direction and some outbreaks of rain are likely as temperatures will remain steady, but sleet could develop on higher ground in the north ahead of the milder air.

TONIGHT ... Windy with intervals of rain, temperatures steady 5 to 7 C, winds south to southwest 60 to 90 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain becoming more showery during the morning, peak temperatures likely around 10 a.m. to noon (8 to 11 C) when winds will begin to veer more westerly, then temperatures slowly falling during the afternoon to 4 or 5 C with showers becoming somewhat wintry again at least in higher parts of the west and north. Very strong gusts are possible but may stay off the northwest coast.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, passing wintry showers, cold. Morning lows -1 to +2 C and afternoon highs 4 to 7 C. Winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, isolated showers, some wintry on hills, not as windy, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Generally settled weather for the weekend as higher pressure builds up over Ireland, some sunny intervals both days, morning frosts, and highs near 7 or 8 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... All guidance now agrees a colder easterly spell will develop as the weekend high drifts off to the north and northwest, and temperatures will fall back to near freezing in the daytime and -6 C or lower at night if the current set of maps is correct, with potential for snow in eastern counties, in particular around Thursday or Friday (22nd-23rd). This is not a guaranteed outcome yet, but with all global models showing similar outcomes, we can say that there is moderate confidence in this wintry outlook. What is less certain is how long that spell might last once it arrives, the one model that goes past ten days has it breaking down within a few days but that is really a low confidence forecast at this stage.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and rather cold with highs near -1 C, snow cover basically frozen at the surface and roads bare and dry but some ice where slush from last week has frozen. The weather pattern across North America has gone relatively quiet, we're expecting an increase in cloud all day Tuesday followed by about 5 to 10 cm of new snow Tuesday night.