What happens if Ireland goes bankrupt.

Hasschu

If Ireland goes bankrupt it will be because the government is unwilling to follow the advice of the ECB. That advice will be along the lines of increase corporate taxes to at least 20%, introduce real estate taxes on all property, create municipal councils who will set the rates and receive R.E. taxes collected in the municipality. County Councils will set rates and collect R.E. taxes for county services. Education will be devolved to County Councils who will set up elected School Boards which will set tax rates for education (primary/secondary). The County Council will receive 1/3 of education funds from the National Gov't, 1/3 will be collected by the County Council and the other 1/3 (School Board)will also be collected by the County council. Essentially the School Board sets the education tax rate and the Council and National Gov't has to match it. The National Gov't negotiates labour contracts with two teachers unions (Primary/Secondary). Each School Board manages its own schools including the teachers. Because teachers are such a fractious bunch there has to be a Supervisory function at the County Council level to ensure the Job is being done. Health care provided by the state would also be devolved to Hospital Boards (elected and setting tax rates and collecting) in a fashion similar to School Boards. Over a hundred thousand employees would be out the door from the civil service and associated quangoes, shambos and pure plain money wasters. Failure to follow ECB recommendations would lead to the IMF. The IMF would be bad, bad news, gut the civil service and associated organizations. Privatize everything, the IMF will pay the first few months if it is contracted out to US and British companies. It is too depressing, I will stop here.

Front

lukasbasic wrote: »

I don't think so. Borrow from who? this nations debt is too high.
there is a risk for all nations to go bankrupt - I think Ireland will be one of the first winners:)

This nations debt is not high, our deficit is. If the govt has the balls to make the Public Sector cuts it needs to and bring the deficit back in line we will be able to borrow what we require to get us throught the next few years while the adjustment takes place.

irish_bob

Front wrote: »

This nations debt is not high, our deficit is. If the govt has the balls to make the Public Sector cuts it needs to and bring the deficit back in line we will be able to borrow what we require to get us throught the next few years while the adjustment takes place.

fianna fail are too populist to do what needs to be done regarding public sector wages , plus thier leader is all belly and no back

the only thing that can deliver the nescesery reforms is a fine gael goverment without labour and fine gael cant win enough swing voters for that to happen while they have a thunderbird at the helm

jimmmy

Front wrote: »

This nations debt is not high, our deficit is. If the govt has the balls to make the Public Sector cuts it needs to and bring the deficit back in line we will be able to borrow what we require to get us throught the next few years while the adjustment takes place.

Well said.....but will the public service co-operate and accept wages and pensions which are not the highest known public sector wages and pensions in the world ?

P. Breathnach

jimmmy wrote: »

Well said.....but will the public service co-operate and accept wages and pensions which are not the highest known public sector wages and pensions in the world ?

Surprise, surprise. Our one-trick pony is showing off his trick in yet another ring.

ardmacha

but will the public service co-operate and accept wages and pensions which are not the highest known public sector wages and pensions in the world ?

Since almost all of them haven't ever had the highest known public sector wages and pensions in the world, then they will probably be happy not to get these now in these straightened times. The rest should be told to wise up.

Spudmonkey

P. Breathnach wrote: »

Surprise, surprise. Our one-trick pony is showing off his trick in yet another ring.

No smoke without fire, the fact that so many people mention it!

P. Breathnach

Spudmonkey wrote: »

No smoke without fire, the fact that so many people mention it!

It's usually jimmmy.

jimmmy

Spudmonkey wrote: »

No smoke without fire, the fact that so many people mention it!

Thank you Spudmonkey.

In relation to someone elses point " This nations debt is not high, our deficit is. If the govt has the balls to make the Public Sector cuts it needs to and bring the deficit back in line we will be able to borrow what we require to get us throught the next few years while the adjustment takes place." I replied
"Well said.....but will the public service co-operate and accept wages and pensions which are not the highest known public sector wages and pensions in the world ? " This question remains unanswered.

jimmmy

ardmacha wrote: »

Since almost all of them haven't ever had the highest known public sector wages and pensions in the world, then they will probably be happy not to get these now in these straightened times. The rest should be told to wise up.

The average public sector wage is € 966 per week, as confirmed siome time ago by our own c.s.o., no less. This is the average taken from a broad range of well over 300,000 people. What other public servants in the world have an average wage exceeding 966 per week ? And what group of retired public servants elsewhere in the world get as big a pension ( a big lump sum plus a pension of half their annual Irish wages when at retirement age ) ?

To get the tread back on topic, I agree with what Front said "This nations debt is not high, our deficit is. If the govt has the balls to make the Public Sector cuts it needs to and bring the deficit back in line we will be able to borrow what we require to get us throught the next few years while the adjustment takes place."

jmayo

irish_bob wrote: »

streets are only cleaned by council workers in urban areas , take a trip outside the towns or citys and see the amount of litter dumpled along country roads and behind ditches , only people who pick that trash up are volunteers

Actually funny you should mention this since Finagal CO Co are refusing to clean the Beaches in North County Dublin this summer.
Maybe some dole workers could be rpessed ganged into doing ?

P. Breathnach wrote: »

Surprise, surprise. Our one-trick pony is showing off his trick in yet another ring.

So because he highlight how well paid and over staffed our public sector (note I said public sector and not civil service) is, he is a one trick pony.

The head of our Defence Forces is better paid than the head of the British Army :rolleyes:
Our PM is better paid than any other Euro PM or the President of the USA.
The whole thing trickles right down the structure.

As a recipient of a public sector pension I presume you would admit that your pension is pretty goo in comparison with people in the private sector who did (do ??) not get automatic increments to match the people who now currently hold their former positions ?

You have to agree all the quangoes and their well paid boards are a massive drain on public funds.
Then we have the white elephant of the HSE that when created actually did not implement economies of scale as normal when amalgamating
organisations, but instead created more layers of bureaucracy :rolleyes:


I beleive clowen and the boys are hoping that ECB will bail us out soemhow in order to save the euro.
If ECB do have to step in then IMHO they will be just as tough as IMF.

To a degree I would welcome some of the changes that would be forced by an external influence.
And yes these do include kicking the public sector back into shape.
Sadly the useful and necessary workers would be targetted just as much as the unneccessary paper pushers and overpaid politicos, well connected friends, consultants and analysts.
Then we would have envitable sell off of state infrastructure to foreign specualtors and we would end up with even more Eircoms.

Nightwish

jimmmy wrote: »

The average public sector wage is € 966 per week, as confirmed siome time ago by our own c.s.o., no less. This is the average taken from a broad range of well over 300,000 people. What other public servants in the world have an average wage exceeding 966 per week ? And what group of retired public servants elsewhere in the world get as big a pension ( a big lump sum plus a pension of half their annual Irish wages when at retirement age ) ?

To get the tread back on topic, I agree with what Front said "This nations debt is not high, our deficit is. If the govt has the balls to make the Public Sector cuts it needs to and bring the deficit back in line we will be able to borrow what we require to get us throught the next few years while the adjustment takes place."

That figure includes the high salary for TD's along with Consultants, NCHD's, Nurse managers etc. The lower paid staff dont bring home anything near €966 per week. In fact I'd reckon a majority dont bring home that amount.

Spudmonkey

P. Breathnach wrote: »

It's usually jimmmy.

I have heard him voicing his opinions before , but still he is not alone and a lot of his points are valid!

hatrickpatrick

bobbiw wrote: »

But come on a Christmas Bonus on the dole for being a failure in life, damn they should have made them clean the streets.

That's a bit nasty considering that many newcomers on the dole aren't there because they're a failure at life but because their companies (or the banks that finance them) are failures at economic planning, or just plain unlucky. During a recession unemployment is not always a choice. Don't judge people just because you have your own prejudices - your company could go under tomorrow for all you know.

Caoltan

Ah, we may even be thrown out of the Euro, because as a rule, deficit cannot exceed 3% of GDP. And while, politically and for handiness, this would be bad, it'd be economically great. The Euro doesn't make sense from an economic standpoint. Political standpoint yes, economic no.

ionix5891

Caoltan wrote: »

Ah, we may even be thrown out of the Euro, because as a rule, deficit cannot exceed 3% of GDP. And while, politically and for handiness, this would be bad, it'd be economically great. The Euro doesn't make sense from an economic standpoint. Political standpoint yes, economic no.

rubbish, ask the other small country in the atlantic (hint the name starts with an I), who went on a binge and recently declared bankrupt, how they feel about the euro :cool:

ninty9er

My own political bias aside. We're in a much better position that many, and I wouldn't look to the US for anything, considering it's the most likely country in the developed world to default on it's debt. That does however depend on China pulling the plug on them.

Canada is the only country operating a relatively balanced budget...I say relatively because I haven't looked at the figures recently.

I wouldn't worry about it really. It's the government's job, and if you look at Brian Lenihan, he's obviously worrying enough for everyone.

well horse

What happens if Ireland goes bankrupt?

"We'll be eating grandad for christmas dinner son!"

SkepticOne

Caoltan wrote: »

Ah, we may even be thrown out of the Euro, because as a rule, deficit cannot exceed 3% of GDP. And while, politically and for handiness, this would be bad, it'd be economically great. The Euro doesn't make sense from an economic standpoint. Political standpoint yes, economic no.

It is the political aspect of it that may be of help to Ireland at least in the short term. They don't want a country like Ireland's possible defaulting to expose the flaws in the system and so will take the necessary action to prevent it.

eamonnm79

Small Change wrote: »

Lisbon is largely irrelevant in this scenario, the key factor is membership of the Euro.
The possibility of a eurozone country defaulting on soverign debt would be a nightmare scenario for the Euro and other eurozone economies and I imagine that the ECB would take whatever steps were necessary to prevent this.

They already are. They are allowing the ECB to continue to fund our banks who in turn, indirectly purchase the government bonds required to keep us going even though we are spending double what we are taking in.

They do this in the hope that our economy will eventually turn around, but its more hope than belief.

eamonnm79

Front wrote: »

This nations debt is not high, our deficit is. If the govt has the balls to make the Public Sector cuts it needs to and bring the deficit back in line we will be able to borrow what we require to get us throught the next few years while the adjustment takes place.

Our nations current government debt is a low % of GDP, but take a look at the April budget. It is expected to go up to about 120% GDP and the budget admits that the projections are optimistic(Greater risk of downside I think they called it) Then add Nama. Then add the fact that Private individual and corporate debt is massive. As george lee said in his brilliant opening speech in the Dail. This is not like the 80's. Its way worse

irishturkey

in a recent issue of hotpress a central bank official was asked if the government was sitting a pile of money, in the region of €29 billion... yes billion... and the answer was yes. when asked why its not being used the answer given... "its for a rainy day".

my reply to that central bank official is... its been pishing rain on me for the last six months... pay up

Économiste Monétaire

irishturkey wrote: »

in a recent issue of hotpress a central bank official was asked if the government was sitting a pile of money, in the region of €29 billion... yes billion... and the answer was yes. when asked why its not being used the answer given... "its for a rainy day".

my reply to that central bank official is... its been pishing rain on me for the last six months... pay up

All of that is borrowed and due to be repaid within a year. It's a revolving credit programme from Irish T-Bills, Euro commercial paper, and Exchequer notes.

irishturkey

i would argue the point but i cant find that particular article now... convenient i hear you say. but im fairly sure it was all our own money

Économiste Monétaire

It isn't. Trust me, I know. It's my job.

irishturkey

normally i'd try and make some case for my defence but with a name like that you seem like you should know

Économiste Monétaire

To be fair, the person is (probably) talking about 'free' cash balances at the Exchequer, which is pretty close to the €29bn figure you're/they're citing. This is what the National Treasury Management Agency refers to as a 'liquidity buffer' for the government. The rainy day is when Ireland can't access capital markets at the same time that a large bond capital amount is to be repaid. Short-term financing helps smooth expenditure over the seasonality of revenue returns. Our short-term credit ratings are still P1/F1+/A1+ so it's cheaper to borrow at the short end of the yield curve (< 365 days). Risk aversion by financial institutions is also playing a part.