Another lie of libertas

is_that_so · 06-06-2009 8:08pm

Scofflaw wrote: »

Still, politics.ie has its uses:

Looks like he picked up the Dana vote as expected. Now we'll see whether Ganley is as transfer-repellent as I expect him to be.

I thought that COIR endorsement smelled a bit of desperation.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Interesting. The second FG/FF candidates and Susan O'Keeffe appear to have polled reasonably well and look to have given FG/FF the advantage. I wonder where those SF votes will go? Despite being on the same side Ganley doesn't strike me as a natural home for SF votes.

In the north of the constituency Gallagher would probably pick up some of them as will Harkin. Both Harkin and FG should benefit from the Labour transfers. What's left is so small that he is unlikely to find enough transfers. The projected 20,000 between him and Harkin will be very hard to pull back.

Hitman Actual · 06-06-2009 8:19pm

I'm still not convinced about those numbers yet though, Scofflaw, as much as I hope they're true. Nobody has been able to verify their validity yet on P.ie, and it may just be shenanigans on the part of that poster.

WooPeeA · 06-06-2009 8:31pm

Hitman Actual wrote: »

From this long thread on Politics.ie, Ganley is reported to be doing very well (according to several posters involved in the tallies)....

Owner of Politics.ie is a member of Libertas.

Hitman Actual · 06-06-2009 8:38pm

WooPeeA wrote: »

Owner of Politics.ie is a friend of Libertas.

Oh, I know that, but I still don't see the point of posters 'bigging up' Ganleys chances. It won't make any difference now. But there were some convincing posts from people who claimed to have been involved in the tallies.

turgon · 06-06-2009 8:48pm

I dont see how the owner of P.ie, with some 22,000 posts, cant see through Libertas.

Its some terrible website.

Scofflaw · 06-06-2009 8:49pm

Hitman Actual wrote: »

I'm still not convinced about those numbers yet though, Scofflaw, as much as I hope they're true. Nobody has been able to verify their validity yet on P.ie, and it may just be shenanigans on the part of that poster.

Sure - as they say, it's all over bar the counting.

cordially,
Scofflaw

WooPeeA · 06-06-2009 8:58pm

Hitman Actual wrote: »

Oh, I know that, but I still don't see the point of posters 'bigging up' Ganleys chances. It won't make any difference now. But there were some convincing posts from people who claimed to have been involved in the tallies.

I edited my post while you were replying. Anyway, his not only a member of Libertas but also director of the campaign which should put the credibility of Politics.ie under the question.

Making Ganley or any other politician bigger than he is in real life is a well known psychological trick. Human is a drove animal and it always follows the crowd. That's why political ads contains so many happy faces and hundreds of fans who are very often nothing more but hired actors.

Many professional comedians use that technique during the TV sitcoms or live shows. When someone tells the joke, you can hear a laugh that makes you automatically smiling whenever you want it or not. That's your nature. That laugh in fact comes form the speakers located all over the audience and can be started and stopped anytime someone push the button. It makes jokes more funny, because as I said before we are drove animals and we always follow the rest of the herd.

"Hey, if thousands of people votes Libertas why shouldn't I? Why shouldn't I trust thousands of people instead of my own research? One man can be wrong, but not the thousands". Unfortunately most of people think that way even though they are not aware of that.

That's why politicians make themselves bigger and greater than they really are, to manipulate you.

USE · 06-06-2009 10:32pm

I'll come back to my point of view on Libertas relating it with USA.

Here you can found a summary on that:
http://www.indymedia.ie/article/87311

passive · 06-06-2009 10:39pm

USE wrote: »

I'll come back to my point of view on Libertas relating it with USA.

Here you can found a summary on that:
http://www.indymedia.ie/article/87311

wow... my opinion of indymedia almost changed, until I read all the comments saying "oh yes, well they're clearly evil, and people should know this...but... let's wait 'til the referendum is done, okay?"

K-9 · 07-06-2009 1:11am

Scofflaw wrote: »

Still, politics.ie has its uses:

Looks like he picked up the Dana vote as expected. Now we'll see whether Ganley is as transfer-repellent as I expect him to be.

I thought that COIR endorsement smelled a bit of desperation.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Can't believe I'm saying this but I wish Bertie was still there.

Transfers!

PS. The mejia are saying Dublin and Leinster East is a sign that FF are in serious trouble. If Pat the Cope can't get in with a Constituency covering 4 provinces and strong FF country, that maybe a more telling fact.

Phil the Drill · 07-06-2009 10:43am

Scofflaw wrote: »

And by virtue of standing in elections, Libertas are politicians, but I don't want you to hurt yourself thinking that through or anything.

amused,
Scofflaw

Not a politician until elected really though!!

molloyjh · 07-06-2009 10:47am

Phil the Drill wrote: »

Not a politician until elected really though!!

So does that mean you voted for him because you didn't think he'd get in???

At the end of the day he is a politician if he goes for election. Sorry to burst your bubble there....

Hitman Actual · 07-06-2009 1:47pm

Scofflaw wrote: »

Sure - as they say, it's all over bar the counting.

cordially,
Scofflaw

From the poster who gave those original figures on P.ie:

wrote:

Latest tallies of 2nd preferences in NW, based on about 15% of ballots so far:

Gallagher getting 50% from FF, 16% from SF & 10% from McNamara
Ganley getting 15% from SF, 9% from Labour & 10% from McNamara
Harkin getting 28% from Labour, 12% from SF & 9% from FG
Higgins getting 60% from FG, 14% from Labour & 7% from SF

These early predictions seem to suggest that Ganley isn't getting the expected transfers from SF. Alot of the SF vote is showing to be non-transferable with no second preferences. Above figures give the following scenario:

Gallagher: 105,000
Harkin:101,000
Higgins: 109,000
Ganley: 78,000

Again these tallies are based on only about 15% of the ballots. Could all change....

Hopefully this poster is in the loop. If so, I feel a lot better about Ganleys chances now.

is_that_so · 07-06-2009 2:03pm

RTE reports that "experienced" heads in the count centre believe the current top three, Gallagher, Harkin, Higgins will get in. Ganley will lose but "narrowly". There are also reports of a number of non-transferable SF votes.

BlitzKrieg · 07-06-2009 2:17pm

drinks?

come on, none of the libertas people are gonna get in...THAT CALLS FOR CELEBRATION!!!!

The European elections results 2009 website will open on June 7 at 18.00 CEST
The first estimations of turnout will be available from 21.00 CEST
The first results will be available from 22.00 CEST

watch this space for results: http://www.elections2009-results.eu/

limklad · 07-06-2009 3:48pm

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

drinks?

come on, none of the libertas people are gonna get in...THAT CALLS FOR CELEBRATION!!!!

watch this space for results: http://www.elections2009-results.eu/

Well while the results so far are good, but don't count your chicken before they hatch. Keep that cork on the Drinks until the last count have been announced. when they don't get in, I will drink on that moment.

Junior · 07-06-2009 4:34pm

I thought I heard something about Ganley getting an injuction as some boxes were opened before 9am - anyone confirm/deny this ?

USE · 07-06-2009 10:33pm

Libertas got 5.62% in Ireland (no seats).

They have got 4.8% in France (1 seat).

0.15% in Spain (no seats)

It says 0.3% for Libertas in the Netherlands (no seats; rounded numbers?).

0.12% in Malta (no seats).

0.56% in Estonia (no seats).

0.9% in Czech (no seats)

0.49% in UK (no seats)

1.14% in Poland (no seats).

4.32% in Latvia (no seats).

Probably not all countries yet and not the final results.

Source.

EPIC FAIL.

molloyjh · 07-06-2009 11:20pm

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

drinks?

come on, none of the libertas people are gonna get in...THAT CALLS FOR CELEBRATION!!!!

watch this space for results: http://www.elections2009-results.eu/

Got a few beers on ice and waiting to go! :pac:

No surprise Ganley is mouthing off. Some good points being made on rte at the moment. The best so far being the line (Pat Cox?) that the Libertas vision seems to be more of an halucenation!!!! Also a point that the only Libertas candidate to be successful so far is one that has been an MEP for years. Some Libertas candidates are incumbent MEPs who don't seem to hav been elected. Democracy in action, great isn't it.

Steviemak · 07-06-2009 11:42pm

USE wrote: »

Libertas got 5.62% in Ireland (1 seat).

???? Should read 0 seat,

PopeBuckfastXVI · 07-06-2009 11:44pm

http://www.elections2009-results.eu/en/ireland_en.html

Predicting a Libertas seat...

BlitzKrieg · 07-06-2009 11:58pm

maybe overzealous assumption by someone in brussels. Libertas being formed in ireland of course they got to get a seat.

please?

I hope...

tomorrow will be a bad day

USE · 08-06-2009 12:06am

It still is EPIC FAIL for Libertas no matter if they will have a seat in Ireland or not. Ireland is their core-country and they have managed to get only >5%. One person from Czech says Libertas' campaign was probably the biggest one and they still have got the ridiculous 0.9% percent. That's like a good smash to the face. Look at the other countries, <5% everywhere and oftenly it's something about 0%. They have got a seat in France only because France is big country and has a lot of seats to offer.

ionix5891 · 08-06-2009 12:08am

USE wrote: »

That's like a good smash to the face.

wait till the company credit card bill has to be paid

molloyjh · 08-06-2009 12:12am

USE wrote: »

It still is EPIC FAIL for Libertas no matter if they will have a seat in Ireland or not. Ireland is their core-country and they have managed to get only >5%. One person from Czech says Libertas' campaign was probably the biggest one and they still have got the ridiculous 0.9% percent. That's like a good smash to the face. Look at the other countries, <5% everywhere and oftenly it's something about 0%. They have got a seat in France only because France is big country and has a lot of seats to offer.

And the fact that De Villes (sp?) is an existing MEP so alrady had a support base.

markopantelic · 08-06-2009 12:17am

im pro lisbon, love what the EU could be and gave libertas last pref, but whats the big deal if ganley gets in? i mean he's one guy, someone like wilders is a much bigger threat.

PopeBuckfastXVI · 08-06-2009 12:17am

molloyjh wrote: »

And the fact that De Villes (sp?) is an existing MEP so alrady had a support base.

de Villiers would get elected if he joined the monster raving loony party.

PopeBuckfastXVI · 08-06-2009 12:18am

markopantelic wrote: »

im pro lisbon, love what the EU could be and gave libertas last pref, but whats the big deal if ganley gets in? i mean he's one guy, someone like wilders is a much bigger threat.

I guess it's a big deal around here, because we are the one's that can block him.

markopantelic · 08-06-2009 12:22am

oh yeah i see, im dublin so i guess he's irrlevant to me on a european scale????

PopeBuckfastXVI · 08-06-2009 12:24am

markopantelic wrote: »

oh yeah i see, im dublin so i guess he's irrlevant to me on a european scale????

No but perhaps that's why you're not as passionate about it as me, because he would be my MEP if elected?

Another lie of libertas

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