Dublin South By-Election

truebluedub

The Village for the the month of June (yeah it's May but take it up with them) has predicted that George Lee will take the seat. Next election one of his colleagues will be sacrificed for the new "golden boy", either Alan Shatter or Olivia Mitchell. Alex White will come second and get a seat next time.

Ostrom

Seems inevitable at this point

is_that_so

Another option is to move one into Dublin South West if Mary Harney retires, maybe even George Lee himself.

InFront

truebluedub wrote: »

Alex White will come second.

Second place for Alex White? I can't see the man who has never succeeded in Dublin South being upped to second, even with one FGer gone. Imagine him surpassing Olivia Mitchell or George Lee or Shay Brennan? Eamonn Ryan - unlikely and Alan Shatter - maybe.

If he does manage a seat for the first time after the general election, and his past doesnt come back to haunt him (public sector strikes) then second is way too ambitious. He might manage last place or 2nd last with FG transfers and Tom Kitt gone.

KINGVictor

Undoubtedly...without any reservations

truebluedub

InFront wrote: »

Second place for Alex White? I can't see the man who has never succeeded in Dublin South being upped to second, even with one FGer gone. Imagine him surpassing Olivia Mitchell or George Lee or Shay Brennan? Eamonn Ryan - unlikely and Alan Shatter - maybe.

If he does manage a seat for the first time after the general election, and his past doesnt come back to haunt him (public sector strikes) then second is way too ambitious. He might manage last place or 2nd last with FG transfers and Tom Kitt gone.

Can you quote anything to back this statement up or are you continuing to make stuff up?

InFront

truebluedub wrote: »

Can you quote anything to back this statement up

Which statement? I can show you Alex White's form in trying to get elected to Dublin South, and evidence of his links to public sector unions as a vice president? These issues, combined with the highly popular TDs currently in place mean that Alex White would be lucky to get the last seat when the others have been handed out.

truebluedub

InFront wrote: »

Which statement? I can show you Alex White's form in trying to get elected to Dublin South, and evidence of his links to public sector unions as a vice president? These issues, combined with the highly popular TDs currently in place mean that Alex White would be lucky to get the last seat when the others have been handed out.

And I can show you FGs form in accepting money from - oh wait I can't they are the only major party who don't disclose who they are beholden to.

I'll save you the trouble his website says that he was vice president of SIPTU and an active member, he doesn't point out that he used to oppose the stickies who in RTE were enforcing state censorship (a position not shared with FG). Oh and he was elected to the local council in the Terenure/Rathfarnham constituency in 2004 -hardly a vote of no confidence, he also made it to the eight count of nine again hardly a vote of no confidence.

I have in front of me an article which clearly backs my original point and says that one of the "highly popular" TDs will not stand in the next election. If you want I can transcribe it give you the page number etc.

Borstal Boy

It's not very likely that White will come in second, either in this election or the next general election. Labour don't do well in Dublin South. They would have to triple their vote to beat FF, assuming that FF drop their vote by over ten points to 30%.

It's a pity really, because he is far more palatable that George Lee. But Lee is likely to win it because of the high number of 'fad' voters living in the constituency.

dereko1969

If Alex White hadn't been imposed on Dublin South at the last election, Labour would have won a seat, there were enough votes between the 2 Labour candidates to win a seat but the votes didn't transfer solidly between Culhane and White. To say Dublin South isn't Labour friendly is just plain wrong, they've been there or there abouts since Eithne Fitzgerald lost her seat.

InFront

truebluedub wrote: »

And I can show you FGs form in accepting money from - oh wait I can't they are the only major party who don't disclose who they are beholden to.

Eh? Am I missing a link or are you now just throwing the first thing at FG that comes into that head? This from the party who routinely take "donations" from the trade unions for a significant portion of their funding!

I'll save you the trouble his website says that he was vice president of SIPTU and an active member

It's this cosy relationship with the unions that I think makes Labour as bad as FF with its relationship with developers. Both 'old pals' situations will only ever serve to drag this country backwards to the 80s and impede reform.

he doesn't point out that he used to oppose the stickies who in RTE were enforcing state censorship (a position not shared with FG).

Proof? And he was probably pushing his own Labour interests btw!

Oh and he was elected to the local council in the Terenure/Rathfarnham constituency in 2004

Oh and I'm sure he will get his chance to return in 2013.

I have in front of me an article which clearly backs my original point and says that one of the "highly popular" TDs will not stand in the next election

Meh, makes sense. I did include the possibility of this happening in my original post - I'm just saying he still wouldn't come second, he'd be lucky to win a seat at all, the people have always said no before after all.

Getting back to the original topic, I think for his own sake and his campaigners, Alex White shoudl face facts about this election and focus on other issues you know, like pushing for a quarter billion euro pay increase for public servants. Is the guy for real? He could at least show a token interest in saving taxpayers' money instead of a payrise for his old buddies.

truebluedub

Why do you insist on turning every thread into an attack on Labour or the Public Sector? One we declare are donations even one which is potentially damaging not like Twink's or should that be Una's old friends (are you old enough to remember that, you don't come across that way at most I'd but you 20 ish).

Interesting tricks on some points asking for a citation and then having a well he was probably following a Labour agenda, means either way you can claim a win. Michael D Higgins was the only prominent member of Labour opposing section 31 and for a reference to both Labour and White's role read "Political Censorship and the Democratic State"
Another trick was selective quoting attempting to render my showing his electoral success in that election which undermined your argument.

He's only telling people what any lawyer or pro-business person will say breaking contractual agreements is bad form. And you did not allow for that possibility.

InFront

truebluedub wrote: »

Why do you insist on turning every thread into an attack on Labour or the Public Sector?

Because quite bfrankly this is politics and that is their Achilles Heal. They have serious image and credibility issues because of their relationship with the unions.

There was a time in Ireland where we could overlook this cosy set-up. Now, with Unions threatening national strikes and pay cuts becoming necessary, can we really afford to be putting a party in Government with these kind of questionable associates common amongst their Oireachtas membership?

Labour is to Unions as Fianna Fail is to developers.
Labour is to unsustainable bust as Fianna Fail is to unsustainable boom.

One we declare are donations even one which is potentially damaging not like Twink's or should that be Una's old friends (are you old enough to remember that, you don't come across that way at most I'd but you 20 ish).

I don't see why my age is relevant but more importantly I think that Twink episode is very funny. I have strange taste in cringeworthy humour - I could listen to Joan Burtons sqawking mournings all day. You couldn't make it up, but then, you couldn't actually take it seriously!

asking for a citation and then having a well he was probably following a Labour agenda

Well you did say he was putting forward an opinion on political reporting while in RTE, sounds like he would have a vested interest as a Labour man.

means either way you can claim a win. Michael D Higgins was the only prominent member of Labour opposing section 31

He was wrong to oppose it imo at a time when The Irish Supreme Court in Dublin said that The IRA and Sinn Fein were the same organisation, combined with the fact that they were actively engaging in terrorism. I just don't agree that one allows terrorists to use the national broadcaster as their soap box. Terrorism speaks for itself.
Besides, do you really want to get into the whole Labour/ NI issue when Alex White and his fellow-unsuccessful Dail candidate Pierce O Doherty have to thank a pact between your two parties for their membership of the national senate? This happy marriage of SF-Labour would raise a few eyebrows and adds to what I referred to earlier as being Labour's identity crisis.

He's only telling people what any lawyer or pro-business person will say breaking contractual agreements is bad form

Alex White wants to give the public sector an extra quarter billion euro, and you call him pro business?
Are you seriously suggesting that international investors would be more impressed by paying civil servants this gigantic increase than they would be by Ireland getting a grip on its spending and showing the world we're not red card carrying left wingers afraid of tackling the unions?

truebluedub

InFront wrote: »

Because quite bfrankly this is politics and that is their Achilles Heal. They have serious image and credibility issues because of their relationship with the unions.

There was a time in Ireland where we could overlook this cosy set-up. Now, with Unions threatening national strikes and pay cuts becoming necessary, can we really afford to be putting a party in Government with these kind of questionable associates common amongst their Oireachtas membership?

Labour is to Unions as Fianna Fail is to developers.
Labour is to unsustainable bust as Fianna Fail is to unsustainable boom.

I'll set up another thread to discuss this rather than have you drive this thread off topic anymore than you already have. Later or tomorrow, whenever I have time.

Borstal Boy

dereko1969 wrote: »

If Alex White hadn't been imposed on Dublin South at the last election, Labour would have won a seat, there were enough votes between the 2 Labour candidates to win a seat but the votes didn't transfer solidly between Culhane and White. To say Dublin South isn't Labour friendly is just plain wrong, they've been there or there abouts since Eithne Fitzgerald lost her seat.

The reason that the votes didn't transfer well between Culhane and White in the last election was because it was not entirely a Labour vote. It was largely a personal vote for either candidate. I agree with you that Eithne Fitzgerald polled respectably the last time she ran, but she received a lot of support because of the regard that many middle class voters still have for the Fitzgerald name.

Don't get me wrong. I like White, but I just don't see him getting more votes than FF. Because, regardless of how bad they are polling, there is still a great amount of appreciation for all the work that Brennan did in the constituency. It's a personal vote.

Agent Smith

truebluedub wrote: »

And I can show you FGs form in accepting money from - oh wait I can't they are the only major party who don't disclose who they are beholden to.

How much shite Come out of your mouth?

List of Donations to FG TD's in 2007


List of Donations in 2008 (all parties)

ateam

George Lee getting 53% of the vote in Dublin South and will run away with victory.

Brennan (FF) 17%
White (Labour) 20%

mikedublin

Brilliant I hope its the first rumblings of a tidal wave that will sweep Fianna Fail out of power for a generation.

recycle

mikedublin wrote: »

Brilliant I hope its the first rumblings of a tidal wave that will sweep Fianna Fail out of power for generations.

:P

PHB

Well considering FG normally hold 2 seats fairly comfortably, this result isn't a massive surprise. It's fairly poor for Labour though.

limklad

Just reported on the Election Tracker on RTE website that Fianna Fail Shay Brennan conceede defeat to George Lee

http://www.rte.ie/news/elections/

George Lee is going to get a massive victory in Dublin South.

mike65

I don't think he had much choice!

http://twitter.com/rte_elections

Bye-elections: Fianna Fail's candidate in Dublin South bye-election, Shay Brennan, has conceded defeat to Fine Gael's George Lee
17 minutes ago from web

Bye-elections: If Fine Gael's George Lee wins Dublin South on the first count, it will be the first such victory for the party since 1975
34 minutes ago from web

truebluedub

Agent Smith wrote: »

How much shite Come out of your mouth?

List of Donations to FG TD's in 2007


List of Donations in 2008 (all parties)

If you actually read the posts you'll see I was referring to the parties in the context to the mythical subsidizing of Labour by the unions, I say mythical because the donation was during one of three years and made up a third of the overall funding for that year, and on another thread I pointed that a number of individual TDs declared. My responses were to the fantasizing of Infront. Please learn to actually read before using abusive language. Or abusing the English language.

Current polling suggests Labour's Alex White will come 2nd/3rd baring out my opening post.

turgon

Did anyone here George on RTE there? Fair play to him.

When asked was he worried about the fickle nature of Dublin South he responded that anyone who didnt work hard deserved to be booted out.

Min

Angry George Lee on TV, I don't want to listen to him moaning for months about how bad things are, he always was a pessimist.

Breezer

George Lee TD has been elected on the first count with 27,768 votes

http://www.rte.ie/news/elections/stories/2009/0606/elections.html