Ganley looking good in Early Tallies

is_that_so

Yep but he needs good first preferences. If the count stands he'll be 15,000 behind Harkin and it will be very hard to pull that back. Even 14.3% is probably not going to be enough. Harkin is far more transfer friendly and the other two have running mates.

edanto

He promised that if he didn't get elected he would step down as leader. I was in the room and the journalists really reacted to him saying that. Look it up on the Irish Times, he promised to grow cabbages!

I don't know why they reacted so much to it, that was exactly what he wanted them to do! Sure what else could he do only step down if he wasn't elected. He has no democratic mandate.

eagle eye

First post in politics. Just a query, ifs its in the wrong thread sorry.

They are saying on RTE that Ganley will not make it. I was looking at the results of the first round and there is 3000 or so votes between the Sinn Fein candidate Mac Lochlann and Mooney of Fianna Fail.

Would I be right in saying that whichever of these gets eliminated first pretty much decides the third seat?

Villain

cornbb wrote: »

14.3% of first prefs according to RTE, as opposed to 9% according to the polls. I guess its a bit of a gap but not a huge one?

Some polls I saw a week or so ago had him on 7% he got double that! God knows how, must have been a No to Lisbon thing

PopeBuckfastXVI

Villain wrote: »

Some polls I saw a week or so ago had him on 7% he got double that! God knows how, must have been a No to Lisbon thing

By all accounts he was 'for' pretty much every local issue on the west coast. I'm sure he soaked up a few hopeful votes...

is_that_so

eagle eye wrote: »

First post in politics. Just a query, ifs its in the wrong thread sorry.

They are saying on RTE that Ganley will not make it. I was looking at the results of the first round and there is 3000 or so votes between the Sinn Fein candidate Mac Lochlann and Mooney of Fianna Fail.

Would I be right in saying that whichever of these gets eliminated first pretty much decides the third seat?

No, Mooney's transfers should go straight to Gallagher. SF's transfers are more important ones. If Ganley gets enough of these he could be in with a shout, but some of them could be non-transferable and it it far less likely.
Mind you the way the votes have stacked up I am wondering if any of them will reach the quota.

BlitzKrieg

and in other news

GO ON ALAN KELLY CATCH UP TO THAT SHINNER!

eagle eye

is_that_so wrote: »

No, Mooney's transfers should go straight to Gallagher. SF's transfers are more important one. If Ganley gets enough of these he could be in with a shout, but some of them could be non-transferable and it it far less likely.

This is my impression on it. Maybe I'm wide of the mark.
I'd agree that some of the SF votes will be non-transferable, I'd guesstimate that he will receive 30,000 or 2 out of every 3 of them.
I imagine that he will be over 90,000 by the time it gets to the elimination of either the Fianna Fail or Sinn Fein candiate. If he has passed 93,000 at that stage he would reach the quota if Mac Lochlainn goes out before Mooney.

Thats my read on things, I might of course be well wrong. I just think it comes down to who gets eliminated first of those two.

I think its very likely though that Mooney goes out before MacLochlainn and as such Fianna Fail getting that final seat.

eagle eye

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

and in other news

GO ON ALAN KELLY CATCH UP TO THAT SHINNER!

Sinnott beats both of them imo.

Scofflaw

There's one last rabbit Ganley can pull out of the bag - deals with other European parties that weren't publicised. I don't know to what extent that's possible, but I do know that Libertas' claimed number of candidates was always a lot more than those parties officially running under the Libertas banner.

cordially,
Scofflaw

is_that_so

Could go any way although Mooney only got 8.7% as against the SF 9.2%. If he's that low he's not going to get an awful lot from those eliminated before him. Harkin should get transfers from all of the Independents especially the Labour transfers. When Mooney goes he'll carry Gallagher over the line. Ganley will be looking at the SF transfers hence the reasoning that he can't do it.

Jack Sheehan

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

and in other news

GO ON ALAN KELLY CATCH UP TO THAT SHINNER!

Agreed. We need a politician with a mind like macguyver.

Dinner

RTE ticker saying North West count stalled because Ganley has queried the way the boxes were opened...

PopeBuckfastXVI

Dinner wrote: »

RTE ticker saying North West count stalled because Ganley has queried the way the boxes were opened...

And so he annoys me one last time...

ionix5891

Dinner wrote: »

RTE ticker saying North West count stalled because Ganley has queried the way the boxes were opened...

i hope he doesnt do a "Bush" on it

cornbb

Dinner wrote: »

RTE ticker saying North West count stalled because Ganley has queried the way the boxes were opened...

Good God, I wonder what his motive is :rolleyes: I wonder if he'll pursue a Florida-in-2000 type-scenario, just to create a bit of chaos.

PopeBuckfastXVI

cornbb wrote: »

Good God, I wonder what his motive is :rolleyes: I wonder if he'll pursue a Florida-in-2000 type-scenario, just to create a bit of chaos.

Good news is he's f*cked and he knows it, otherwise there'd be none of these shennanigans.

cornbb

Confirmation now on RTE... live pictures of Ganley talking to the returning officer... apparently they appear to be "very animated" at times... statement expected from Ganley very soon

PopeBuckfastXVI

Jim Fahy: Ganley is questioning the 'integrity' of the boxes.

ionix5891

PopeBuckfastXVI wrote: »

Jim Fahy: Ganley is questioning the 'integrity' of the boxes.

boards.ie questions Ganley's integrity

BlitzKrieg

right I am getting out the vodka right now...ONWARD TO DRUNKY TOWN!

PopeBuckfastXVI

lol... I was thinking that as I typed it.

Might be time to raise a Militia, head up to Castlebar to make sure democracy is served.

bug

ionix5891 wrote: »

boards.ie questions Ganley's integrity

De Burca can do a recount apparently on the basis of her expenses, Ganley can't on the basis of procedure?

Seriously lads try and hide your colours. He got 70K first preference votes regardless of how you feel about it.

Just to be the devils advocate here.

edanto

At least we have a paper trail. Imagine the claims if we were using the e-voting system that FF/PDs bought!

meganj

Gotta love Pat Rabitte on RTE claiming Ganley is "prone to theatre" too true Pat too true! :pac::D

cornbb

Even assuming Ganley doesn't win a seat here, I'm beginning to get a sinking feeling that it won't be the last Ireland/Europe hears of him.

eagle eye

Wow a lot of Ganley haters here. I didn't vote for him myself, I live in the West. I just don't get all that hate though. Why would you dislike somebody so much who has never been in power?

BlitzKrieg

bug wrote: »

De Burca can do a recount apparently on the basis of her expenses, Ganley can't on the basis of procedure?

Seriously lads try and hide your colours. He got 70K first preference votes regardless of how you feel about it.

Just to be the devils advocate here.

De Burca is just as much of a sore loser, so my colours are very clear (very red at the moment ) I think both of them are just being a pain.

Dinner

bug wrote: »

De Burca can do a recount apparently on the basis of her expenses, Ganley can't on the basis of procedure?

DeBurca did it because she wanted to get 3000 more votes to get her expenses covered. I don't agree with it but it is quite clear where she is coming from.

Whats Ganley's angle here? What is he insinuating happened that would warrent a recount?

They can't exactly put the ballots back in the correct boxes and start all over again so I don't see how this is anything other than, as Rabitte said, theatrics.

PopeBuckfastXVI

bug wrote: »

De Burca can do a recount apparently on the basis of her expenses, Ganley can't on the basis of procedure?

Seriously lads try and hide your colours. He got 70K first preference votes regardless of how you feel about it.

Just to be the devils advocate here.

De Burca isn't calling into question the integrity of the electoral system.