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Elections tallies/guesswork/results catch all thread

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    #122
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Quota for East 107,313

    Alylward 74,666
    Byrne 31,112
    Childers 78,338
    Funchion 26,567
    Garvey 2,934
    Grealey 1,514
    McGuinness 110,366
    O,Malley 18,557
    Phelan 61,851
    Sharkey 20,932
    Tallon 2,412

    McGuinness in and looks like Childers and Aylward


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    #123
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    De Burca on RTE, She's seeking partial recount - short 3,000 votes to get expenses. Used some of her own cash for expenses.


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    #124
    turgon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    Ferris gets 64,000 votes mostly because shes a hot blonde.

    Vive Democracy!


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    #125
    LostinBlanch
    Registered Users Posts: 2,908 ✭✭✭LostinBlanch


    is_that_so wrote: »
    De Burca on RTE, She's seeking partial recount - short 3,000 votes to get expenses. Used some of her own cash for expenses.

    Ryan on Newstalk says there's €20 - 30k at stake for her.


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    #126
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,945 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Maurice Ahern has lost his Council seat


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    #127
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Yay! (sorry)


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    #128
    Aidric
    Registered Users Posts: 13,591 ✭✭✭✭Aidric


    Is Ganley considering a request for a recount in the North West?


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    #129
    turgon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    Ferris pushed back into fourth place by 200 votes as Staffords ballots distributed.


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    #130
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    A statement is imminent, apparently.


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    #131
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Dublin after count 3 quota 101,658

    FG 96715
    LAB 83471

    FF 55346
    Socialist 50510
    SF 47928

    Ind (McKenna) 17521

    Rest eliminated, where will the McKenna votes go?


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    #132
    Sully
    Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators, Regional South East Moderators Posts: 24,056 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sully


    Villain wrote: »
    Maurice Ahern has lost his Council seat

    I thought he got in on the final count?


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    #133
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,945 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Sully wrote: »
    I thought he got in on the final count?
    Nope Lost by 15 votes


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    #134
    ShooterSF
    Registered Users Posts: 8,824 ✭✭✭ShooterSF


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Quota for East 107,313

    Alylward 74,666
    Byrne 31,112
    Childers 78,338
    Funchion 26,567
    Garvey 2,934
    Grealey 1,514
    McGuinness 110,366
    O,Malley 18,557
    Phelan 61,851
    Sharkey 20,932
    Tallon 2,412

    McGuinness in and looks like Childers and Aylward

    Dammit anyway. Really didn't want Childers in. Anyone who's flyer starts with "My father...." should never get in.


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    #135
    mewso
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 8,952 Mod ✭✭✭✭mewso


    Anyone who votes for someone who's flyer starts with "My father...." gets what they deserve.


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    #136
    Our man in Havana
    Closed Accounts Posts: 29,476 ✭✭✭✭Our man in Havana


    LostinBlanch wrote: »
    Ryan on Newstalk says there's €20 - 30k at stake for her.
    Pity.


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    #137
    mewso
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 8,952 Mod ✭✭✭✭mewso


    BNP win Euro seat in the UK. Dear oh dear.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8088133.stm

    From that article - The BNP candidate said it was the "first step to freedom" from EU "dictatorship".


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    #138
    turgon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    Given that FF are at 209, and the remaining seats are 34, the best they can get is 243. This would mark a loss of 60 seats, and this is the bare minimum.


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    #139
    turgon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    Ferris still in fourth place after the third Ireland South count. Count 4 will involve the redistribution of Crowleys surplus of roughly 7,000. Count 5 will see Burke eliminated.

    Hopefully Crowleys transfers will favour not Kathy Sinnot keeping her at 5th. Then after Burke is eliminated (id say a lot to FG, Lab) she will be eliminated.

    I would see this as good because hopefully SInn Fein wont get that many transfers, as opposed to the transfers Sinnot would get from Ferris.

    Alan Kelly then to keep ahead with a few prayers and candles, but only marginally!


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    #140
    turgon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    From RTE Twitter
    RTE Twitter wrote:
    Ruairí Quinn (Lab) had said the Govt is unpopular because it’s unpopular

    I would never have guessed!


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    #141
    Our man in Havana
    Closed Accounts Posts: 29,476 ✭✭✭✭Our man in Havana


    Very likely that Alan Kelly will just shade it.


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    #142
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,945 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    South 4th count (Distribution of Ned O'Keeffe's vote).. Crowley +10,006.. 132,410 elected.. Burke +694.. 57,884 Ferris +992.. 68,296 Kelly (A) +626.. 70,309 Kelly (S) +1,329 .. 97,482 Sinnott +1,223.. 65,518 .. Next operation to distribute Crowleys surplus of 7,878. Alan Kelly increasingly favourite for third seat


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    #143
    turgon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    The way I see it is that many Sinnot voters transfer to "mainstream" candidates. Weve seen on boards people giving Sinnot one then FG 2,3 etc.

    However I imagine that Ferris' votes will not be as good for them and will instead transfer to the Euroskeptic Sinnot, which could leapfrog Sinnot over.

    That is why Im hoping Ferris can stay 4th.

    EDIT: 5th count just announced, A Kelly only got about 650 of Crowley Surplus; Ferris got exactly 999. Only 1700 votes between them!


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    #144
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,945 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    South 5th Count.. (Crowleys surplus) Burke.. +694 .. 58,654 Ferris +999.. 69,295 Kelly (A) +682 .. 70,991 Kelly (S) +912.. 98,394 Sinnott +1,402.. 66,920 Colm Burke eliminated and his vote now being distributed


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    #145
    turgon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    With Crowley Surplus see what I mean about Sinnot attracting transfers?

    The question is will she get 6,000 more transfers from Burke than Ferris or Kelly to push her into 4th? Could happen, considering Burke is a Corkonian.


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    #146
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,945 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    turgon wrote: »
    With Crowley Surplus see what I mean about Sinnot attracting transfers?

    The question is will she get 6,000 more transfers from Burke than Ferris or Kelly to push her into 4th? Could happen, considering Burke is a Corkonian.
    Hard to Call, Ferris on RTE last night said that Tallies showed her getting transfers from all over simalar to the way Martin Ferris was elected in the GE, tough to call but I would reckon Alan Kelly will get it


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    #147
    turgon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    An observation: Labour have received 10% less first preference Euro votes than FF (24% for FF as opposed to 14% for Labour), yet its probable they will end up with the same number of seats.


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    #148
    seamus
    Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    All in the transfers turgon. I imagine that Labour appear somewhere in the top 3/4 for people who vote independent, green, SF or FG. Those same voters are likely to not rate FF on the ballot at all.


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    #149
    turgon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    I reality what happens, I just think its a interesting fact. Might indicate where labour should target votes: ie those already voting Independents and Sinn Fein.


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    #150
    turgon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    S Kelly elected on Burkes transfers, he took some 60% of them. A Kelly was the next big beneficiary, increasing his lead on Ferris by 3 and a half thousand votes to 5 thousand.

    8,000 surplus S Kelly votes will now be distributed which are maybe likely to benefit A Kelly and Ferris. Sinnot will definitely be eliminated next Id imagine.

    Where her 70k transfers go will obviously decide it , and I wholly shocked if Ferris pipped A Kelly, although its probably unlikely.



    FF to lose council 70-90 seats nationwide after this election.


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    #151
    turgon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    Sinnot proved to be a draw for transfers as I thought she would be, and has in fact leapfroged Ferris, so the latter had been eliminated.

    Sinnot needs to get 8.8 thousand votes more than A Kelly. Considering Ferris has 75k this could happen.


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