Do you think its possible if the local elections could precipitate a general election

tolteq

the guy on rte, said it had never happened in the history of the state, but then there's always a first time for everything!

Our man in Havana

Unless the Greens pull the plug or there are major defectors I seriously doubt it.

DeVore

How could it? There is no "trigger" that could be tripped to force it in law. FF could be eraditcated along with the Greens and nothing HAS to happen.

They could choose to table a motion of no confidence but as was said above, unless the turkey of the Green party decided to vote for christmas, it will get defeated.

They're in until they are defeated in such a motion or lose a budget vote (afaik). There's precious little could force them out after the EU elections. Most governments would not be able to stomach the discontent in the populace and would "do the right thing" but I doubt FF or the Greens will do anything except hang on to power for dear life in the certain knowledge that ANY time in the next few years would be a better time for an election for them, then now.

DeV.

upmeath

AFAIK a majority of the town, borough and county councils in the country were in the hands of FG or Labour-led coalitions for the last 5 years. What you might see emerging over the course of the next few weeks is a situation where only a handful of councils in border counties and in rural FF heartland are still in their control. The situation in Leinster House/Cowen's Cabinet would not change. Pressure would increase considerably, that's a given.
I think dissatisfaction with the government would have to spill over onto the streets with sustained protesting, we saw protests for a few weeks after the budget, SIPTU, the teachers and lower-ranked gardai all protested on Kildare Street, the taxi drivers on Merrion Square, but the anger has somewhat fizzled out. The momentum for a change of power is there, and growing, but the people aren't motivated enough to show their disapproval with mass protests, Dublin needs to be brought to a standstill on a working day, Saturday afternoons and Bank Holiday Mondays aren't the time to make your presence known in the capital.

EDIT: As for a change originating in Leinster House, well the Greens are the pivotal players, there's nothing enticing them into pulling the plug at the minute, the electorate aren't too happy with them and they've performed dismally this weekend, even in their Dublin stronghold constituencies.

Dr Galen

DeVore wrote: »

How could it? There is no "trigger" that could be tripped to force it in law. FF could be eraditcated along with the Greens and nothing HAS to happen.

They could choose to table a motion of no confidence but as was said above, unless the turkey of the Green party decided to vote for christmas, it will get defeated.

They're in until they are defeated in such a motion or lose a budget vote (afaik). There's precious little could force them out after the EU elections. Most governments would not be able to stomach the discontent in the populace and would "do the right thing" but I doubt FF or the Greens will do anything except hang on to power for dear life in the certain knowledge that ANY time in the next few years would be a better time for an election for them, then now.

DeV.

i'd agree for the most part here, but I wouldn't put money on the Greens being able to tough it out. The party is run very much on the basis of consensus and majority rules. If a special conference is called to debate their role in government, and a vote to pull out is taken, I'd imagine it would be a tough one to call. Whatever peoples opinions about Gormley etc and abandoning their policies since going in, there appear to be a growing number of disffected people on the ground. Cuffe called for them to look at things this morning. As i said in another thread, if the results so far are borne out and the Green lose up to the 9 seats that are in doubt right now, then I'd say we're looking at a pullout sooner rather than later

is_that_so

They currently have a majority of 5 , most likely to be reduced to 3 as I would be surprised if Maureen O'Sullivan would support this government. If Pat "The Cope" Gallagher gets into Europe that comes down to 2, although there is probably a FF vote in his constituency and they'd be back to 3. The Greens are the key to survival. Even so a couple of "unhappy" TDs would bring it down.

Our man in Havana

The Cope could be cute and immediately resign his EU seat and send a sub to Europe.

DeVore

"Disaffected people on the ground" dont get votes in motions of no confidence. If they did, we have had a new government months ago

If the Greens try and salvage something they might "do the right thing" and try and regain some of the publics belief in them. That might happen.

However, they may well consider their support to be "under water" so to speak. Thats is that before 2012 (when an election MUST be called) there could be a significant turn around in the economy and popular support. Indeed its *likely*.

So, why vote yourself out of office and into the teeth of 5 years in opposition when you could just put your headphones in, crank the volume and ignore the protests until you get to better times....

DeV.

is_that_so

He could but that would pretty much write off any FF hopes for the next GE. Given the likely results today and the potential implications for a GE, he might be wiser to trot off to Europe.

MikeC101

Bond-007 wrote: »

The Cope could be cute and immediately resign his EU seat and send a sub to Europe.

Oh hell, please tell me he can't do that...!

If he can, would he be allowed?

Mr.Micro

The Greens would be obliterated in a GE and have had a taster at the Local Elections. It will make them realize that they need more time at the sinking ship to try and salvage something or hope that the electorate will forgive, forget or the economy picks up. So Biffo will bodge onwards with his raggle taggle troupe of clowns until his mandate expires I fear:eek:

Pedrospuds

If it does happen and Fianna Fail actually remain in Power , im leaving the ****ing country . Im surprised that they even were able to maintain so many Co.Council seats

Our man in Havana

MikeC101 wrote: »

Oh hell, please tell me he can't do that...!

If he can, would he be allowed?

He could and it is allowed under EU rules.

DeVore

I cant imagine how you think FF arent going to "remain in power" after these EU elections. What are we going to find out that we didnt know before? Thats everyone thinks FF are corrupt and shouldnt be running the country? Hell we knew that last week.

I will be very VERY surprised if anything comes of this in terms of our national government... the only ones who can choose to make something happen are the ones who will be decimated by it. Turkeys, christmas.


DeV.

Dr Galen

DeVore wrote: »

"Disaffected people on the ground" dont get votes in motions of no confidence. If they did, we have had a new government months ago

when i talk of this, I'm talking specifically of disaffected Green members, who could well vote to have the Greens remove their support of FF.

If that happens, then it's either election time, or FF cross the chamber. Something that I very much doubt any of the opposition parties would be up for.

Dr Galen

this article puts things much better

mikedublin

what's needed is a couple of Fianna Fail TD's whos seats will be very vulnerable at the next election (based on the swing against FF). If they believe they can survive and retain their seats by distancing themselves from the current shambles, they could pull out , saying they are doing it on behalf of the people who elected them. Result.....the government falls, there is a election, they get re-elected, but the ones who stay loyal to cowen & Co go down

DeVore

the only people left voting FF are the "party faithful"... do you think they would forgive a "traitor" who pulled out now?

I agree with the idea that there are ways it can happen (and even though the above suggestion is a "bad" idea, they could still be stupid/desperate enough to try it).

I'm not saying it couldnt happen, part of me desperately wants it to happen, but I dont see anything which could *force* it to happen, coming out of these EU elections...

DeV.

Dr Galen

agreed,

force is probably the wrong word to use.

i'm still of the opinion that as events unfold, pressure on the Greens to do something will be too strong and they will buckle

peasant

DeVore wrote: »

I'm not saying it couldnt happen, part of me desperately wants it to happen, but I dont see anything which could *force* it to happen, coming out of these EU elections...

DeV.

Boards could launch a "balls" campaign ...bumper stickers, t-shirts, e-mails ...the whole shebang. With a slogan something like this:

"You made a balls of it, now have the balls to step down"

Go on ...you know you want to :D:D

lmtduffy

Enda Kenny is gonna put forward a motion of no confidence on Tuesday, heres hoping...

http://www.rte.ie/news/elections/stories/2009/0606/elections.html

Our man in Havana

Political theatre only. There is not a snowballs chance in hell of it passing.

turgon

What if the greens panic after their decimation?

Dr Galen

well then we'll get an election. the next 2 days are going to be all important.

nesf

I don't know, Ciaran Cuffe is making noises about paying attention to the Green Party members and the public's opinion. The Greens might be getting cold feet and thinking that being the ones to end the current Government might improve their present dire position in the polls.

DeVore

Not as much as holding out until 2012 will imho

DeV.

lmtduffy

lmtduffy wrote: »

Enda Kenny is gonna put forward a motion of no confidence on Tuesday, heres hoping...

http://www.rte.ie/news/elections/stories/2009/0606/elections.html

our politicians are having to work in a completely new environment, I think it is possible that the greens or some independents or even some FF td's will freak out a bit, considering its only what 2 td's needed.

Trotter

If I'm a back bench government TD I've 3 scenarios to think about. One; Stay quiet and hope the rising tide lifts all boats, including mine, and I'm reelected in 2012. Two; I'm being lashed on the doorsteps and if I'm one of the two TDs that jumps, I'll get credit and keep my seat. I might lose the party whip but that could be no harm either. Three; I don't jump but another 2 TDs do having gone with scenario 2. I'm left to fight an election knowing the trend is to put FF and Green candidates out to dry. I know I'll have problems keeping my seat. ..... Theres a few TDs out there that have serious decisions to make. This vote of no confidence is a clever move because it forces any wavering government TDs to make a decision.

bijapos

Yes, quite possible but not until Autumn. Greens have Planning Act to get through, they won't budge till then but whats left of their grass roots will push for a lot of changes or roll back on some cuts as an ultimatum I think.

BTW I think we really need the Planning Act as a piece of legislation, hope FG-Lab dont scupper it.

Hope Labour dont make a balls of this like Dick Spring did in 92, learn from your mistakes and all that.

is_that_so

Government TDs are going to have that problem irrespective of when the elections comes. As with these elections the damage will be done in urban areas. Even after we "calm down", FF will be removed from power and no amount of spin will change that. The extent of it is the only question. When a recovery arrives, it is unlikely to have any momentum until at least 2011, which gives them at most a year to pull up the numbers.

Another question for that TD is whether the government can get as far as that recovery. With at least two budgets to get through, government survival to 2011 is not a given. IMO they won't survive. A TD may find that an emotive local issue , badly affected by cuts, could be their way to make a "dignified" exit and boost their re-election chances.

bijapos

Is_that_so:

Yep, well put, very plausible scenario, there should be another couple of Joe Behans in there somewhere.