So, a no confidence vote on tuesday...

hatrickpatrick

I haven't read the whole thread yet but can I just chip in and say:

With regard to the Enda Kenny hate: What he said on the news tonight was the smartest hing anyone's said about it. His opinion polls don't matter. He's just one guy. What matters is that in the time he has been the leader, the party has been climbing and climbing. That's the true indicator of his ability to lead, not the opinion polls based on his personality (which they have to be, since no one can judge his leadership ability until he's been Taoiseach).

bijapos

There will be a vote of no confidence and it will be defeated.

I was in Loughlinstown at the Dun Laoghrie count last night as someone gave me a ticket so I headed down out of curiosity. Greens got no seats, they were honestly in shock, expected a hit but not this. I spoke to some of them who reckon what happens is that they will hand FF an ultimatum on a lot of policies, roll back SOME but not all of the cuts and see what happens. They will definitley now vote in favour of staying in as they want to see the new Planning legislation introduced, which in all honesty is sorely needed, and which would be opposed by elements of FF and FG and some smaller elements of labour. After that who knows?

It was also pointed out to me that in the opinion polls the highest dissatisfaction rating of the government was from Green party supporters. The ball is in their court now anyway. Should be a long summer.

Gael23

Dinner wrote: »

On the off chance that it does does succeed, how long would it take for an election to be held?

30 days

The Mad Hatter

I think if this is made a private vote it could pass. The Greens haven't exactly sounded warm and cuddly towards FF over the last few weeks, and I'd say could tip the scales. I doubt they'd pull out directly, because that'd allow Sinn Féin an easy entry.

If it's public, it will probably fail.

LostinBlanch

Hatter,

It's a Dail vote, they're all held in public.

Our man in Havana

They vote in lobbys outside of public view.

mikedublin

I'd say for anyone who really opposes this current government and wants an election, the best thing to do now is contact your local Green TD's, and remind them that they are there to represent the electorate, and as their consitutient you will be watching how they vote in the confidence motion. and remembering how they vote when it comes to the eventual general election.

Rob!

1. Its Fianna fáil....they will try hold on by any means possible! The only thing that could swing it in favour of the FG/Labour boys is internal disagreement in the greens and of course the independents would also possess some leverage over the whole matter.

2. Being honest, our alternative parties aren't exactly my cup of tea, but that said, i think politics in this country needs a big reshuffle. And besides, fianna fail, despite having a few excellent candidates, are overall completely out of their depth. They really don't possess any vision or the capacity the lead this country forward. They greatest skill is that of question dodging and waffling. People in this country don't trust politicians and i can't blame them. How our Tanaiste still holds her current position i'l never know!

And as for Europe saying that Fianna fail are doing an ok job of getting us through this recession - I'd be willing to bet that most European governments, with the exception of the French and German's, will be lead by completely different parties next year. People are sick of the same old cronyism everywhere and want some change. I'm not saying that alternative parties are any sort of Messiah's, I'm simply suggesting that once every few generations, governments (during easy times) tend to become gradually incompetent and corrupt, kinda like a rotting apple. And theres only so much people will take - A big European political shake-up is just around the corner

Akrasia

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

1: Do you think this is going to succeed and unseat the government?

Are the opposition going to 'pair' with the absent FF tds? (I'm lookin at you bertie)

2: Is a change of government a good thing for IReland at this time, or is stability vital for our economic recovery?

A new mandate is essential for democracy (none of the measures taken by FF have any democratic mandate or featured in any election manifesto)

That said, I don't have much confidence that an 'alternative government' won't just carry on bankrupting the country just as FF have been doing (FG supported the Deposit Guarantee and NAMA, the two biggest mistakes ever made by any Irish government in history)

MikeC101

If FF were to go to the polls in a general election right now, they're fully aware of how badly they would do - bearing in mind that in local elections a lot of people consider the candidates party to be of less significance than the work they've done locally etc.

Far better for them to hang on, and for all those whose seats would be shaky to keep picking up their salary / committee pay / unvouched expenses until 2012 when its possible their ratings will improve, economy will pick up, etc...

For the Greens it might be less clear cut - they might hope to address their drop in support by playing the "watchdog" card - that they pulled out to stop FF from damaging the country further and so on, but it's unlikely that there would be a sudden swing back to them all that quickly, and they must be looking at their local election results and realising that they could be for the chop if a general election was to happen any time soon.

Again, better for them to hang on as long as possible. The electorate have short memories, they believe, and they might be right.

Liam Byrne

LostinBlanch wrote: »

Hatter,

It's a Dail vote, they're all held in public.

I presume what Hatter means is that they're anonymous ?

The chicken-****s that backed Bertie to the hilt and kept mum when FF screwed up are hardly going to publicly state their preference in case the Government survives and they've just shot their "career" in the foot.

It should be 100% anonymous so that - for once - a few TDs might actually stand up and be counted and do the right thing.

Sully

It might be close, but I cant see it going to plan. It just might be the extra pressure added which may later cause the Greens to pull.

LostinBlanch

Bond-007 wrote: »

They vote in lobbys outside of public view.

But isn't there a record of who voted which way?

That's what I meant by public vote rather than actually looking to see who goes which way?

John Player

if the greens pull out can fianna fail try and find other partners or will there have to be an election?

is_that_so

They could try but they are extremely toxic and wouldn't find any takers.

Red Sleeping Beauty

bijapos wrote: »

There will be a vote of no confidence and it will be defeated.

I was in Loughlinstown at the Dun Laoghrie count last night as someone gave me a ticket so I headed down out of curiosity. Greens got no seats, they were honestly in shock, expected a hit but not this. I spoke to some of them who reckon what happens is that they will hand FF an ultimatum on a lot of policies, roll back SOME but not all of the cuts and see what happens. They will definitley now vote in favour of staying in as they want to see the new Planning legislation introduced, which in all honesty is sorely needed, and which would be opposed by elements of FF and FG and some smaller elements of labour. After that who knows?

It was also pointed out to me that in the opinion polls the highest dissatisfaction rating of the government was from Green party supporters. The ball is in their court now anyway. Should be a long summer.

The Green Party vote has always kidna been a sort of anti-establishment vote for a non-corporate style party like the two big Fs.

Gormley and Ryan have been trotting out a nifty little line about how they're in it for the long haul and there will be a revision of the programme for govt. et cetera but if they don't do something by the next General Election their party will go the same way as the PDs.
And that is something they should've known when they shook hands with the devil and proceeded to get into bed with him.