No Confidence - But do we want a general election now?

democrates

It seems clear from the election results and the reasons given by voters, that the majority of people are unhappy with the present government. The local election result is unlikely to be replicated so extremely in a general election where we need to be convinced that the alternatives are a better bet.

That said, if enough people have already decided that they want rid of the present government at the next general election, would it be better to do so sooner rather than later?

Also, could the greens redeem themselves by recognising the new mandate for change?

Saruman

Not being too much of a political follower all I can use would be this scenario.
People are unhappy with FF mainly because of the decisions they made to get the economy back on track. Increasing VAT, the income levy etc.
The question is, will FG undo these? If not then they are not going to be seen as a better choice and if they do, can they make their way work?

democrates

Saruman wrote: »

Not being too much of a political follower all I can use would be this scenario.
People are unhappy with FF mainly because of the decisions they made to get the economy back on track. Increasing VAT, the income levy etc.

True, and in addition to the anger over corrective measures, a great deal of people take the view that the government "blew the boom and got us into this mess", but revenge tends to be limited to non general elections.

Saruman wrote: »

The question is, will FG undo these? If not then they are not going to be seen as a better choice and if they do, can they make their way work?

The opposition aren't trying to pretend that the mess doesn't have to be cleared up anyway, but if they can sell the "fairness" argument (or more accurately "least unfair") they could convince enough floaters.

It's hard to know if they could sway people though, while Eamon Gilmore for example has been good at pointing out inequities in the dail backed up by evidence, he's not been very good at summarising that material in media interviews, his presentation is over-summarised to simplistic phrases that come off like vacuous slogans, whereas 10 seconds could remind people of "a slew of sins".

For example NAMA, the govt want the legislation wrapped up by July, and our kids will still be paying for it. If the nationalisation option would be better then we'd need that bill to be defeated, but it looks like the greens are looking to let it go ahead and then use the summer recess for "time and space" to sort out their issues. I think we're witnessing a systemic problem with the way their party is run, they can't react fast in a crisis.

ShooterSF

The one concern I would have would be that FF have left the place in a mess but a General election might even let them easy at the minute. The recession means trying to fix the mess is going to be a tough tough job and FF would be happy to look like the shining opposition mocking the governments efforts to fix FF's mess.
In 5 years time that could get them back in as is the short term memory of our electorate.

democrates

ShooterSF wrote: »

The one concern I would have would be that FF have left the place in a mess but a General election might even let them easy at the minute. The recession means trying to fix the mess is going to be a tough tough job and FF would be happy to look like the shining opposition mocking the governments efforts to fix FF's mess.
In 5 years time that could get them back in as is the short term memory of our electorate.

Yeah, it's the mother of all poisoned chalices!

FF/GP have 3 years left as it is, by next year the worst of the economic crisis will be over and they'll be playing the "green shoots" card (FF already shot the greens, lol), and then two more years to pray for progress. It's probably more likely that we'll see a populist budget in 2011 since they're now starved of local councillors to deliver at the parish pump.