What Next for FF and the Greens ?

Het-Field

An interesting debate has developed on Politics.ie. The ABFF crew have pitted themselves against the Dye in the woll FFers, in an argument over whether FF has just endured a meltdown. From my position, meldown is all relative. In 2007 FF could afford to lose 6 TDs, on the otherhand, the 6 TD loss endured by the PDs was unsustainable, and lead to the November 2008 decision to wind the party down.

In the 2009 set of elections, FF has just lost 70 County Council seats, one European Parliment seat, and (perhaps most importantly) two bye elections, which means that the opposition vote has swelled. Michael Lowry is now making shapes about a potential to vote against the government, and having spoken with Joe Behan, any unwavering support he may have had for the government, is dissapating further since he resigned over the medical card issue. The likes of Mattie McGrath and Noel O Flynn are also seen as liabilities, and should Mary Wallace see fit, im quite certain that there is a potential for her to make life difficult for Brian Cowen, should a particularlarly difficult vote be put to the Dail.

FF will equally have to quell the anger of a very disillusioned grass roots. From speaking to many FFers, I know how upset they were at candidate selection this time around. It was always likely to be that way, as Head Office deemed their will to be more intellegant, and more likely to take seats then the will of the local cummann's. This is an unsatisfactory abuse of power by the higher ups, and save for a few references by Brian Lenihan, FF have not, and will not accept that they have fcuked up on this. Particularly in Dublin, where they have been obliterated on Councty Councils.

And interesting fall out from thsi election has been some culling of the "dynasty" factor, which has often determined so many council seats. The names Martin, Roche, Ryan, O Keefe, Calally (amongst others) counted for nothing, as the people chose to send their votes elsewhere. If this was to translate into a general election, then vote shares would plummett, or even lead to the loss of seats held by dynasties.

As such, I feel that a form of meltdown has most certainly occured. Translate all these results into general elections, and Labour, and Fine Gael will most certainly have the numbers to establish a healthy Dail majority. This ensures that Fianna Fail will need to reform their people, reform their ideas,a nd above all reform their poliices. Familiarity of Ministers (as Pat Cox and John Bowman were disucssing on Prime Time last night) counts for little or nothing. As Michael McDowell, Niamh Breathnach, and Michael Portillo will all testify. As long as they continue to go the way they are going, noting will change, the crap policy will continue to come to the fore, and Ireland will continue to be stuck in the economic rut, which has been evindent for the past year.

Initial signs are not good. Dempsey, Martin, Cullen, Lenihan, Hanifin, and Cowen, have all claimed that this result is a response to the "tough decisions". This is more bull****. All people I spoke to, and canvassed are dissatisfied with the government which brought us down this path, and has ensured that these "tough decisions" need to be made.FF are suffering from Ostrich "head in sand" syndrome. The longer they convince themselves that this result is not a national commentary on their performance, the longer Ireland will continue to suffer. The reason for this is they wont change a damn thing unless they believe the public wish it to be that way.

Fianna Fail need to take a long hard look at themselves. In terms of ministerial reshuffles, I doubt im alone in thinking that the saying "rearranging the deckchairs on the titanic" springs to mind. They is a huge vaccum of ministerial accumen, in spite of the years of experience. The loss of McCreevy (who was not 100% to blame, his mistake was his lack of fiscal conservativisim, in a time when he was doing the right thing in all other faculties of the economy), Michael McDowell, Seamus Brennan, and Tom Kitt has removed some of the heavy hitters, leaving us with the dregs. Equally, for Bertie's failings, he acted as a wonderful zeal, a great coalition worker, and a decent public face (nothwithstanding what came after). In his first two years, he managed to sign the Belfast Agreement, pass the Art 2/3 Constitutional amendment, pass the Amsterdam Treaty, move Ireland (with great help form a very invigorated Mary Harney) to 97% employment, and win almost 200 seats on the newly arranged County Councils of Ireland. Of course, a major shadow has been cast on this legacy.

On the other hand, in his first year, Cowen has lost Lisbon, lost our economy, lost the public, and is losing his party. He has not spoken to the nation on one occasion, and offered the poorerst Ard Fheis speech of any political leader in the past 10 years. His statements of "my way" are of great concern, due to the fact that the decisions taken reflect his will, and reflect an internal cabal, taking decisions which are just plain wrong. The increase in VAT, the taxation of the minimum wage, the proposed carbon tax, and the further levies pay testament to that. Until he starts listening to the outsider, the chances of recover will diminish even further.

It is also time for Fianna Fail to accept responsibility, whether they believe it or not. The Irish people, and the vast groups of people I spoke to on doorsteps, remember the low tax, high spend policies of the government, they remember the "light touch regulation" which gave rise to the bankruptcy of the banks, they remember the comments of Bertie vis-a-vis nay sayer economists, who should commit suicide. Above all, they know why Ireland is in greater difficulty then most of it's European Councterparts. We lived on an artifical economy, which was get rich quick, but was wholly unsustainable. Mr Cowen oversaw this, and did nothing to stop it. The Irish people would have great respect if like Barack Obama (after the Bill Richardson debacle), or Willie Walsh last summer, Fianna Fail took responsibility. I certainly would, and be willing to consider any caveat which they may place i.e. we will have to do x,Y, and z to redress this mess. However, until this is done, and a hand is put up in remorse, the Irish will continue to see FF as arrogant and uncairing.

A state of the nation address must be made as soon as possible by Lenihan, Coughaln, and Cowen. I dont mean a speech from behind a FF podium to media hacks, or to a partisan audience. Like Haughey, Cowen must address the nation with a candid assessment of the nation's state of affairs. This must be accompanied by a detailed plan of FF's "next steps". These are not budgetary ajustments, just the outline of a credible and achievable plan. Today's downgrading of our credit rating indicates how necessary that will be.

Tough decisions will need to be made. Not weak ajustments diisguised as "tough decisions". It is time that a major overhaul of the taxation system takes place. No stone must be left unturned vis-a-vis the public purse, and flabby areas must be dealt with asap. There is no use in attempting to pussy foot around decisions which will have to be taken, whether it it deals with cutting social welfare, clear outs in the public sector, cutting unprofitable routes on our subsidised state owned transport system. It would have been better to ajust the minimum wage rather then to tax it. It guarantees that our crazily high minimum wage must be maintained as it is. This will price companies out of the market, and they will relocate. Ditto Carbon Tax. It is a claimate change agenda profferd by the rejected Green, and will scare FDI from the Irish doorsteps. VAT and corporation tax MUST come down. A drop in VAT would encourage Irish spending, purely on the basis of a belief that its inexpensive to by goods. Before Christmas, the belief that it was cheaper to shop in Newry cost the Irish state up to 600 Million Euro. These moves may appear to favour big business, but they make sense. As FF have tried to remain popular (save for the grinch protocol, and the medical card debacle), they have delayed recovery by an undefinable period, and havve ensured that we will be playing catch up.

The Greens

The Greens are possibly in the most difficult position of all. They are fighting for four council seats, and have been wiped out in Dublin. Dan Boyle has been given a heavy kicking, while a victory for De Burca would have been to defeat Patricia Nutjob McKenna. They have been rejected by the Irish electorate, and their vote articulates the distain with which irish people view their performace. Its a far cry from Gormley's "Planet bertie" speech, and his analogy between Michael McDowell, and Tammy Wynette. The public have little faith in the Greens, and are eroding any mandate they may have had in 2007. The seat losses of Vincent P Martin in Monaghan, and Neil O Brolachain in Galway epitomise this. Two hard working, and high profile cllrs, who have lost seats on the back of Eamon Ryan and John Gormley's dogmatic approach to Government and Fianna Fail.

Four scenarios lie before the Greens. First, they could choose to cross the house, and join FG, Lab and some independents under a form of Rainbow Coalition. It would be difficult to see that happening, as the Greens would have little bargaining power given their result over the weekend. Second, they could leave government along with a few independents and force a general election. This may save the Green's from electoral wipeout, but it would still only be enough to save three seats. Third, they can wait, and let the FF backbenchers pull the government down. This would lead to the end of the Green Party in electoral politics. In DLRD Cuffe is already a gonner, White is likely to lose out in Carlow, while Gormley will be fighting for his life with a second Fine Gaeler. If they remain in Govt, and the FFers pull it down, then Ryan's seat would be gone as FG would return three (Lee, Shatter, and Mitchell), Labour would retun one (White), and FF would return one or two (depending on White's vote Corrigan, and/or Brennan). Gogarty would lose out to Fitzgerland in Dublin mId West, while Sargent would probably be safe, but would have to fight tooth and nail with Claire Daly of the Socialist Party. Fourth, they could wait and hope the govt survives until 2012, and if the tide has turned, then they could benefit from it. However, with the crisis seeming unliky to abate before the next election, that would be a great risk.

The arrogance of the greens has been breathtaking. Their negligible achievement has been overshadowed by their suupport of incompetence. They were not in power to oversee the development of the crisis, but they have propped it up, and have show Gormley's words in 2007 to be cynical, and careerist. They are in a position similar to that of the PDs in 2007, they can leave and look cynical, or remain and become redundant.

Either way, this Government's shelf life seems to be coming to an end. Unless major reform occurs, Ireland will continue to poll and vote against this government. 2004 was a disatisfied mid term commentary. 2009 was used as a referendum on the government. The loss of Eoin Ryan's seat epitomises this. If it was a protest vote, he would have had enough votes to get in, as most people will be cautious about who they vote for when sending a message to the Government. Ireland has rejected the politics, and the former politics of the Government. Thus, I would hope they would consider the abve steps ina manner which could be useful in restoring public confidence, and potentially put us well and truly back on the road to recovery.

Sonderval

Nice summary Het-field, I enjoyed reading it.

Regarding the dynasty factor, political dynasties are anathema to democratic principles and I am quite happy to see so many of them fall out of favour with the electorate.

I think the greens really need to quit if they have any real hope of survival.

Liam Byrne

You had me behind you all the way until you said "Like Haughey...."

The ultimate criminal that preached a "state of the nation" address to us, while screwing us from a height ?

While Cowen is an arrogant idiot at least he's not one that's blatantly doing it for personal gain.

lostexpectation

fergus finlay just there saying the green made a mistake by not demanding the tanaiste position, becuase once tanaiste, you get informed of everything and get to see everything before it goes ahead by law, could they look for it now?

Tom65

lostexpectation wrote: »

fergus finlay just there saying the green made a mistake by not demanding the tanaiste position, becuase once tanaiste, you get informed of everything and get to see everything before it goes ahead by law, could they look for it now?

That's an interesting thought. The rumour is that Mary Coughlan is for the chopping board. That said, John Gormley is fairly toxic now, and Eamon Ryan would be better off staying away and becoming the new leader.

Greens need to stay through this no confidence motion, and pull out when the review for the program of government comes around.

meglome

I agree with most of what you said there Het-field.

I can see the Greens making a strategic withdrawal from government over the next year. Otherwise they'll go the way of the PD's. I used to give the Greens a high preference at each election but after directly saying they would never go into government with Fianna Fail then turning around and doing just that. After spending months saying how corrupt FF were, which was true then joining with them, credibility gone...