Getting us out of Depression-First Steps ?

AlekSmart

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/alarm-as--spoonfed-students-cant-cope-at-college-1772644.html

Any Boards interest on the musings of Tom Boland of the Higher Education Authority as reported in the Indo recently.

I have to say that Mr Bolands newly expressed views have been ebbing and flowing with me for some years now.

I have had the great benefit of being able to observe the behaviour and attitudes of many of Mr Bolands clients for some years now.

Not having a 3rd level qualification myself may act against my impartiality,but I have formulated an opinion that we have a really major problem in relation to the type of "Complete" person our Higher Education system is producing.

I have over almost 15 years now charted a depressingly downward line in what could be called "cop-on" as year on year our Universities churned out the Graduates seemingly highly valued by the Rest-of-the-World.

Invariably the native Irish young student appeared to view their University Period as a time for "Newtorking",Socializing,Expermintation all interspersed with increasingly shorter periods of Study or Course Work.

My line of business takes me past,through and into some of the largest 3rd level instititions in the State,viz UCD,Trinity,DCU,St Patricks Teacher Training College (IMO THE Most Important of the bunch) and I would have long and involved interaction with hundreds of students of all levels over my working week.

I view Tom Boland`s opinions as something of a Wake-Up Call that has come a little too late and which demands some fairly rapid assessment on the part of our Department of Education and the various Eductional and Assessment bodies themselves.

The ongoing Social re-entrenchment which will come with the "Great Depression" may well see us valuing the individual who can repair a leaky Tap or keep an oul jalopy on the road at a higher level than the IT or Physics graduate who can dissect the principles behind the Tap Washer or the Thermodynamic features of the V-Tec engine.

Part of the problem may well lie in the notion,prominent only since the 1980`s,that all of our second-level output simply HAD to "go to College".
This concept,totally absent during my progress through the Group and Intermediate Certificate syllabus,virtually destroyed the alternative path of Trade Apprenticeships or the Physical Labour occupations which deserve to be valued just as much as the "Cerebral" activites of Academe.

The really interesting quote is half-way through the article,when the reporter refers to Multi-Nationals AND indigenous employers hiring NON-Irish Graduates as their "Qulaity" is seen a superior to the native.

Whether we like it or not,THAT position needs to be evaluated and responded to ASAP if we are to get our people back on the highway to prosperity...of a sort !

silverharp

the bit about the irish v non Irish grads may have alot of causes an effects, courses being too easy , the "best" kids migrating away from science based courses. Quality v numbers is always going to be an issue and the balance maybe wrong here, not enough Phd's and too many chalk and talk graduates.
I probably wouldnt make 3rd level the key issue and coutries like Germany seem to do well even though their 3rd level looks very bloated from what I have seen of it however they have the numbers I guess.
If you want prosperity you need companies that can learn to be competitive at home and export it around the world.

Húrin

I agree. The educational inflation has caused a lot of people who are completely unsuitable for academia, to go to university simply because they are middle class.

bernardo mac

Step 1.Get Seanie Fitz.and his pals to surrender what assets and monies they have stashed away, to the State.A start anyway and might help to lift the prevailing gloom. Step 2.Leave

Hasschu

It is a brutal world out there. I know a research and design office for a major international corporation located in upper New York State. There were over 200 engineers, scientists and mathematicians employed there ten years ago. Today there are a dozen employees managing projects that are farmed out to contract employees in India and Russia. On speaking to a manager there he tells me they do good work at least as good as an American with a similar education. There are hundreds of similar operations around the world and they are putting pressure on the educated (PhD, Masters) class in the developed world. It used to be that competition was confined to the skilled trades and illegal immigrants working in restaurants and as contract cleaners at close to the minimum wage. The world has been turned on its head and low taxes and education are no longer enough to compete effectively. Ireland has to rethink its raison d'etre and get down to brass tacks or it will fall back into the lack lustre conditions that preceded entry into the EU.

Sleepy

The general quality of an Irish degree is a disgrace. What passes for a three (or 4 in some cases) Bachelor's degree in Business could be covered in a year by anyone suited to the discipline...

old boy

i know of some one that could only get a 2nd class degree in buisness studys from ul and now has a possition with loyds of london as a risk accessor and an accountant, i wonder if they could have got that with one years course

1huge1

old boy wrote: »

i know of some one that could only get a 2nd class degree in buisness studys from ul and now has a possition with loyds of london as a risk accessor and an accountant, i wonder if they could have got that with one years course

Thats very true but according to the OP the Dublin Universities are the most important of the bunch.

That aside I know that the Business course is probably the most important asset to UL, its something there always going on about when comparing its graduates to the likes of UCD, UCC etc.

dermo88

I would like to try and tackle this from several angles. My knowledge of economics is amateur at best, and the figures I display are off the top of my head. I am however, not beholden to political cronies, or self interest. There will be only victims from this point onwards. I would promise nothing less. The only reason is that Ireland faces it, cleans up, and moves on. Nothing less will save the nation. It is like 1987 again.

1. A comprehensive review of the cost of goods and services vis a vis other economies within the Eurozone.

2. A comprehensive review of the cost of property as above.

3. A review of the various sources of taxation, and compare with Europe.

4. A review of Government expenditure.

5. A review of those likely to be worst affected by unemployment, negative equity, lack of opportunities.

6. We cannot make a poor man rich by making a rich man poor.

1.1 We have to go back to the last "sane" year in the Irish economy. That was 1997-1998. This was just when the Celtic Tiger was ticking over nicely, and inflation, wages, and the cost of living had not hit insanity levels.

1.2 We can tackle this by allowing the property market to bottom out and reach realistic levels. This means removing the crazy Section 23 subsidies and tax breaks that make Ireland excessively dependent on property. Property was the beginning and the end of this curse.

1.2.3 While there are poisonous loans, there are also poisonous properties. These should be taken into local authority ownership and used for social housing. In one fell swoop, our excessive expenditure on social housing and rental subsidies can be reduced to a fraction of their old costs. (Awaits outcry)

2. Two huge gaps exist in Government sources of revenue. I made a post about this. The first is water, the second is land.

2.1 Everyone receives a Water allowance, say 10 hectolitres per month. The surplus above that is charged at 2 Euro per hectolitre. Water must NOT be privatised.

2.2 Everyone receives a land allowance. You are allowed own 50 square meters of residential land. The surplus above that is taxed at 50 cent psm per annum. Also, an allowance to own 200,000 Euro of residential property, above which is taxable at 0.5% per annum. 2 Adults in a household get twice as much land allowance as the remaining residents in any household.

2.3. Propose that neither 2.1 and 2.2 will exceed more than between 7-12% of any one households after tax income.

Government expenditure.

3. Welfare and work.

Work must be rewarded, but Welfare must never exceed 65% of the National minimum wage after taxes.

4. Government expenditure.

A comprehensive review of our beauracracy with a view to cutting down the various tiers.

5. Rebates given to those in negative equity who are affected by the various taxes above.

Thats just a start. I have given up complaining. Try to offer solutions. Together we can succeed.

Fat_Fingers

No offense to dermo88 but this country had way to many "reviews" , "reports" and "studies" resulting in nothing more then talk shops and sound bites for politicians.

IMO we will get out of it by letting FF do their thing - bring us faster into total collapse, then IMF will come and sort it all out. Oh , nearly forgot, once IMF has crank up unemployment to 20+ % you will see our tax exiles coming in to pick a cheap slaves for their new Irish operations. You will have all exiles like Denis O'Brien, Tony O'Reilly, Michael Smurfit, John Magnier, Hugh Mackeown, P McManus and Dermot Desmond and many more coming in to "invest"
Who knows, we might even have a Bono sing us a song (all a part of charity work that he does so well)

dermo88

We need to do comparisons. Thats what I meant by a comprehensive review. Ireland is in a unique situation, which it has not faced since 1979. Because its a member of a currency union, the only solution is to bring revenues and expenditure into line with the other members. Then we begin to wipe the slate and start again.

The discipline imposed by a currency union eventually does lead to tax harmonisation. The tax harmonisation is not imposed by laws from Brussels, it is in fact imposed by having to compete and/or cooperate with other members of the currency union.

The IMF will not be knocking at Irelands door. Saying that the IMF will knock at Irelands door is akin to saying that they will be knocking at the doors of California or Massachusetts in the United States. Because our holdings of currency reserves, gold, etc have been transferred from the Irish Central Bank to Brussels. This means it is a totally different game now.

One side effect of this recession/depression is that it will finally "wring" inertial inflation from the Irish system and psyche. The Government expected to increase taxes by 5% per annum by stealth through various means year on year, and they got away with it. This was because people did not notice as much as they had a fairly decent amount of money, even those on minimum wage were better off by comparison with their peers 10 years previously.

My final post stated "This is for a start". We are after all dealing with a multifaceted problem.

cfcj

dermo88: I commend you for your initiatives and actual ideas, so much knocking goes on on these threads. Fantastic to see you putting proposals out there.

I think its indicative of the negativity that has engulfed Ireland. Its easy for a lot of people to generalise and blame the government for everything. There is also a lot of ignorance of how government and the public sector operate, controls they need to adhere, economic strategies that must involve Brussels, communication, etc. I don't however think that the government has caused any of this. This is a global problem, when I watch news reports recently that Egypt, China and even buoyant Dubai have been effected by this crisis, Cowen really messed it up for them too!? That makes me chuckle a bit actually.

I think we must acknowledge the Irish market moves at a much slower pace than most of our European counterparts, so things take longer to get done and seem a bit lax. I think this reflects in our public and private services and it frustrates, not least those of us that have lived abroad and have been exposed to more efficiency. I do agree there needs to be a shake up of how the public service operate, but not at the cost of jobs. Gotta ask ourselves is adding to the dole queues a good thing at this time.

I do think the government has missed opportunities, and should be a bit more stern with saving Irish industry, e.g. Waterford Crystal. But when it came to making the decision about the banks our government was quick and first if you remember. As much as it pained me that they had to rescue the banks, it needed to be done. Any economist will tell you that. Now look at the other countries who have followed our lead.

I think the real issue that needs to be addressed is our trade balance sheet. If you look at the latest figures from the CSO and notice that from 2003 our trade surplus has been reducing. Imports are going to start really hurting over the next few years if this trend continues. Also currently 80% of all our exports are made by mult-nationals. This I think you agree is way too much of a dependance on non Irish based industries. So we should be focusing a lot more attention on encouraging home production. For the record I think that the concessions made to multi-nationals was the right thing to do but I think our own industries were forgotten about and if it all dries up and the multi-nationals begin to pull out, like Dell has started to, I fear for the consequences.

I agree with what you said in relation to seizing properties that have been tied up in the toxic debs and especially with the loans Anglo made to these developers.

Rebates for homeowners, I presume you mean, in negative equity is absolutely absurd. I believe that as a principal housing and transport should be non profitable entities but that isn't the case and they are controlled by the markets. If someone took the risk of buying a house beyond their means and it hasn't paid off then the taxpayer shouldn't have to foot the bill. People through greed and profiteering developers have inflated the price of housing. Price caps and more regulation in housing would never go through because no politician would be elected with this as their policy. Imagine trying to sell that to the electorate in multi-million Euro houses. There is a short sighted view with the economy in Ireland.

Our focus and our target should be increasing productivity and exports. Controlling government spending is of course essential but a short term measure and its the bigger picture that needs to be addressed.

I am returning to education in September as a mature student. I don't have a degree and worked my way up through the retail sector. I am keen not to sit on the fence and do nothing for the economy so... during time I am in college I have proposed to a local initiative to volunteer my skills in helping local retailers compete. There is a good talent returning to Ireland with the right skill-set that can benefit the local enterprises. I don't know the best way to package it yet but surely the onus on all of us getting out of this crisis, I think someone already said about all hands on deck.

Drumpot

cfcj wrote: »

dermo88: I commend you for your initiatives and actual ideas, so much knocking goes on on these threads. Fantastic to see you putting proposals out there.



I think its indicative of the negativity that has engulfed Ireland. Its easy for a lot of people to generalise and blame the government for everything. There is also a lot of ignorance of how government and the public sector operate, controls they need to adhere, economic strategies that must involve Brussels, communication, etc. I don't however think that the government has caused any of this. This is a global problem, when I watch news reports recently that Egypt, China and even buoyant Dubai have been effected by this crisis, Cowen really messed it up for them too!? That makes me chuckle a bit actually.

.

I agree with alot of what you say and do commend people trying to come up with innovative ideas. To be honest there is no perfect way of sorting out this problem.

But, I have to pull you up on this. I agree that the government cannot be blamed for everything and people need to take personal responsibility for debts and bad decisions they have made (instead of saying the government forced them to buy properties). But there are plenty of things the government could of done to protect us against the current recession. Yes its going on all around the world, but not to the same degree its going on in Ireland -

- Lower taxes . . We demanded and we got lower taxes. A very basic principle of prudent financing is to save money when you are making money. Our boys spent spent spent. Alot of their spending went on the public service, propping up their wages in exchange for votes. We had far too many cuts and we shouldve had a higher tax base when we were all making money instead of the mess we have now.

- Bertie Bowl, e-voting and many other wasted ideas could easily add up to hundreds of millions of wasted money, a drop in the ocean in the scheme of things but wasted money.

-Quango's and spin doctors. Try putting a price on that . .

-The wastage and mess of the healthcare system. . I have heard stories that would make your skin crawl and scare the hell out of me . .

-Bringing in stamp duty when the times were good, instead of bringing in a property tax. This would of guaranteed that our government would of been budgeting with money they would be getting even in a downturn unlike the short term stamp duty "get rich quick" scam.

- Awful negotiating when tendering out public projects (find me a list of good value deals done!)

I could go on if I thought more about it, but while lower interest rates and some other EU limits meant we were hampered in some form in our own destiny, our government has made a potential recession into a depression that could take many many more years to rectify then it would of had they been prudent with OUR money.

Lastly, your second paragaph "Irish Market moves slower" ???. . Perhaps you meant in a differant context but no market grew as fast as the Irish Market over the last 9 years (before the recession). The problem was that our market grew so fast so quickly, we didnt have the foresight to stop and look where we are as a nation and take prudent decisions to prepare for an eventual decline.

cfcj

Drumpot wrote: »

I agree with alot of what you say and do commend people trying to come up with innovative ideas. To be honest there is no perfect way of sorting out this problem.

But, I have to pull you up on this. I agree that the government cannot be blamed for everything and people need to take personal responsibility for debts and bad decisions they have made (instead of saying the government forced them to buy properties). But there are plenty of things the government could of done to protect us against the current recession. Yes its going on all around the world, but not to the same degree its going on in Ireland -

- Lower taxes . . We demanded and we got lower taxes. A very basic principle of prudent financing is to save money when you are making money. Our boys spent spent spent. Alot of their spending went on the public service, propping up their wages in exchange for votes. We had far too many cuts and we shouldve had a higher tax base when we were all making money instead of the mess we have now.

- Bertie Bowl, e-voting and many other wasted ideas could easily add up to hundreds of millions of wasted money, a drop in the ocean in the scheme of things but wasted money.

-Quango's and spin doctors. Try putting a price on that . .

-The wastage and mess of the healthcare system. . I have heard stories that would make your skin crawl and scare the hell out of me . .

-Bringing in stamp duty when the times were good, instead of bringing in a property tax. This would of guaranteed that our government would of been budgeting with money they would be getting even in a downturn unlike the short term stamp duty "get rich quick" scam.

- Awful negotiating when tendering out public projects (find me a list of good value deals done!)

I could go on if I thought more about it, but while lower interest rates and some other EU limits meant we were hampered in some form in our own destiny, our government has made a potential recession into a depression that could take many many more years to rectify then it would of had they been prudent with OUR money.

Lastly, your second paragaph "Irish Market moves slower" ???. . Perhaps you meant in a differant context but no market grew as fast as the Irish Market over the last 9 years (before the recession). The problem was that our market grew so fast so quickly, we didnt have the foresight to stop and look where we are as a nation and take prudent decisions to prepare for an eventual decline.

Well having lived in the UK for the last 7 years I would take the Irish government over the British one any day. Truth is that no country seems to be escaping this. Yes things were probably done wrong in hindsight but look at what is happening in the UK where my taxes went... toilet seats & moats!! and not to mention the billions spent on the war in Iraq. Then you have to take into account that most of the banking blunders were going through London. Ohhhh and taxes??? you have no idea of taxes, Try taxes in the UK or France. And try getting a doctor in the UK, that is a joke. Had to see the doctor when I came back and was seen within an hour! Yes there is stories out there but I recon there is way too much influence on the Irish by the British media. I saw someone asking about Irish TD's expenses, which made me laugh cause the system here is exactly what the MP's in the UK are trying to get in to fix the mess they are in.

I have two words for you in relation to poor negotiations... Millenuium Dome! they ended up giving it away.

Believe me Ireland works slower... I'm nearly pulling my hair out at how long it takes to get anything done and the pace of the culture is way way slower to many European countries.

Thats the UK, now have a look at Italy.... lol

Right so enough of 'they did this, they did that' seem all in all they had good intentions, and the difference in the country is amazing from when I left. The infrastructure is totally different for the better. I'm so fed up of moaning, its everywhere... so depressing, you must feel it and negitivity breeds negitivity. It aint good and its not what I remember. There is a greed here that I don't remember before, even if they had a moan before there used to be a little bit of humour about it. I seriously can't watch or listen to any Irish media. Its like being back in London where they should win awards for their negativity.

Truth is that there is many factors that has caused it, we aint alone and the government didn't cause it, they might have made decissions at the time that with the recession have blown up and give a different picture. But seriously...

Ok so that being said there is work to be done, first of all dust ourselves off and get back on the wagon. The longer you let it eat you about what happened the longer we stay in this recession. There is many things we can do and get us out of this depression. I'm doing something cause I believe I can help. I'm sure there is people who can do the same if they really thought about it... time to get the good old Irish culture back, I think we sold our soul a bit.

Anyhow thats my twopence worth

gurramok

cfcj wrote: »

Well having lived in the UK for the last 7 years I would take the Irish government over the British one any day. Truth is that no country seems to be escaping this. Yes things were probably done wrong in hindsight but look at what is happening in the UK where my taxes went

Truth is that there is many factors that has caused it, we aint alone and the government didn't cause it, they might have made decissions at the time that with the recession have blown up and give a different picture. But seriously...

Anyhow thats my twopence worth

Seriously, they are responsible for it. They allowed the construction bubble to double in size where it constituted a quarter of the economy and then rely on it for alot of tax revenue. Even FF admit this was a mistake.
http://www.environ.ie/en/PublicationsDocuments/FileDownLoad,15353,en.pdf

And then they allowed social welfare and public sector spending to climb to monstrous unsustainable levels based on the above.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pzcsCLFvURLWO5dSWjO2kbg&gid=0

What happened internationally has made it alot worse. Each country made mistakes, ours made worse mistakes domestically than other advanced economies.

You'll notice how Britain is reporting green shoots of a recovery, here we will be waiting till 2014 for that according to the IMF and you wonder why.

cfcj

gurramok wrote: »

Seriously, they are responsible for it. They allowed the construction bubble to double in size where it constituted a quarter of the economy and then rely on it for alot of tax revenue. Even FF admit this was a mistake.
http://www.environ.ie/en/PublicationsDocuments/FileDownLoad,15353,en.pdf

And then they allowed social welfare and public sector spending to climb to monstrous unsustainable levels based on the above.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pzcsCLFvURLWO5dSWjO2kbg&gid=0

What happened internationally has made it alot worse. Each country made mistakes, ours made worse mistakes domestically than other advanced economies.

You'll notice how Britain is reporting green shoots of a recovery, here we will be waiting till 2014 for that according to the IMF and you wonder why.

So in line with the nature of the thread isn't it about time to start thinking about how to get out of the depression, realistic steps that is?

Stop watching and listening to sensationalist media coverage talking of 'green shoots'. This is a term used by MP Shriti Vadera a few months ago to and holds no grounds, its subjective and as vague as a media soundbite can be.

The IMF is not the only authority on economics, I'm not saying they are right or wrong but its an opinion, they have been heavily critisised for economic recommendations and policy in the past, particularly with regard to US policy, Brazil & Argentina. Just yesterday I watched a report from a UK agency that had made a more conservative estimate on the UK recovery then the IMF. So again its speculative based on the picture they have at any given time. Things change.

Nobody predicted the huge boom that Ireland had, it was a false boom because our production is now next to nothing with the multi-nationals controlling 80% of our total export, whatever you think of the internal economics. Of course Ireland was gonna fall faster and quicker than a lot of our counterparts, Iceland had an over reliance on the financial sector when the bottom went out of it as a repercussion of the tumble in the US, added to by bad banking practices and ill thought out/naive schemes not just here but also in other jurisdictions that have affected us. I suggest you have it the wrong way around, International problems has caused the problems and internal economics have attributed to the scale of it. If the government 'had done everything correct' as people have put it we would still be in an economic meltdown because of our international dependance.

The problem is now our trade surplus is decreasing. We are not a traditionally wealthy country and cannot survive on a trade deficit, so real issues aren't being addressed. Killing off of Irish production in favour of cheap imports is a major threat to the economy. Pay of judges, that seems to be grabbing headlines at the moment, is showbiz news in comparison.

I think you can pump in so much energy and time in pointing the finger, but again in line with the theme of this thread its time for action. There is other threads if you want to join the negative masses and whine.

nesf

gurramok wrote: »

Seriously, they are responsible for it. They allowed the construction bubble to double in size where it constituted a quarter of the economy and then rely on it for alot of tax revenue. Even FF admit this was a mistake.

They aren't responsible for it, they just made things a lot worse than they could have been. A small but important difference tbh.

ardmacha

A lot of comment here in this forum and on the media lacks a proper timeline, the present is mixed up with the past. You get this like "The Irish economy is overheated" or "the trade surplus is decreasing" which actually refer to the past. Time is important.

1993-2002 Ireland had a real boom, with real increases in numbers employed and living standards. Yes there was an imbalance of multinational activity in this but that didn't make it "fake". This period allowed Ireland catch up on Western European levels of prosperity. Government increased expenditure on infrastructure investment etc, quite reasonably.

2003-2007 While houses etc had cause to rise in the price in the earlier period this was followed by a hollow property boom, sustained by borrowed money flowing into the country. Growth in this period was a modest real growth overlaid with the property boom. The former has partly been lost in the international recession but can return. The latter is gone forever. This high growth of this period brought tax bonanza owing to the reliance on property tax, leaving government finances in a hole when it all ended.

2008-2009 Internal consumption has declined, improving the trade balance which may improve further as the intl economy picks up. This is all part of the rebalancing process.

We are never going to get the Celtic Tiger growth rates, but we were doing much right at one point and some growth can ensue if we do this again.

nesf

ardmacha wrote: »

2003-2007 While houses etc had cause to rise in the price in the earlier period this was followed by a hollow property boom, sustained by borrowed money flowing into the country. Growth in this period was a modest real growth overlaid with the property boom. The former has partly been lost in the international recession but can return. The latter is gone forever. This high growth of this period brought tax bonanza owing to the reliance on property tax, leaving government finances in a hole when it all ended.

Most importantly the growth in this period was fuelled by population increases through immigration rather than increases in productivity (i.e. GDP per worker) that fuelled the earlier boom years. Productivity was almost flat in this period.

cfcj

ardmacha wrote: »

A lot of comment here in this forum and on the media lacks a proper timeline, the present is mixed up with the past. You get this like "The Irish economy is overheated" or "the trade surplus is decreasing" which actually refer to the past. Time is important.

1993-2002 Ireland had a real boom, with real increases in numbers employed and living standards. Yes there was an imbalance of multinational activity in this but that didn't make it "fake". This period allowed Ireland catch up on Western European levels of prosperity. Government increased expenditure on infrastructure investment etc, quite reasonably.

2003-2007 While houses etc had cause to rise in the price in the earlier period this was followed by a hollow property boom, sustained by borrowed money flowing into the country. Growth in this period was a modest real growth overlaid with the property boom. The former has partly been lost in the international recession but can return. The latter is gone forever. This high growth of this period brought tax bonanza owing to the reliance on property tax, leaving government finances in a hole when it all ended.

2008-2009 Internal consumption has declined, improving the trade balance which may improve further as the intl economy picks up. This is all part of the rebalancing process.

We are never going to get the Celtic Tiger growth rates, but we were doing much right at one point and some growth can ensue if we do this again.

The balance of trade has reflected a decrease in our trade surplus since a peak in 2004, in 2008 there was a jump back up in in the surplus but this was caused by a decrease in imports. Possibly not reflecting the true picture, since it doesn't record goods bought in Northern Ireland by cross-border shopping, surplus had increased in 2008. The statistics from the CSO do also show the scene from our exports which have been decreasing from 2003, we will wait for 2009's performance but since companies like Dell, who are chasing cheaper labour to Poland, and warnings from the Irish Export Association (predicting 40,000 job cuts in 2 years unless they get a €1Billion bail out) The old industries and businesses that were once established and successful have now gone. I know that in Dundalk there is very little being made compared to before. Diageo are winding down their operation in the Harp brewery and the industrial park, which once employed many many people in the production of anything from shoes to pens now seems to be awash with retail outlets. Most of them are UK companies to be honest. Am I the only one that seems to think this is a concern?

I agree that I don't think we will see the likes of the Tiger economy well for a long time anyhow, and thank god for that. The truth is it happened too quick... The nouveau riche culture has to come down a peg and realise that in the past people were delighted to throw money at Ireland but it like I said before it was a false boom (false as in false economic boom), I wasn't sure if the 'fake' thing was aimed at me, I wasn't saying it didn't happen. But I don't think Ireland can get up to the level or 'catch up' with France, Germany and the UK in such a time period, they are much older and much more established economies with a high production and less reliance on imports per capita.

In terms of the EU and Ireland as an economy within that we are certainly not equal players. We have a proportional representation and to take all into consideration we still have a very attractive market, not least with the infrastructure and services that could support Ireland show a gradual and stronger economy.

ardmacha

Most importantly the growth in this period was fuelled by population increases through immigration rather than increases in productivity (i.e. GDP per worker) that fuelled the earlier boom years. Productivity was almost flat in this period.

The accession of the East European countries to the EU provided this immigration at the "right" time and these often worked in low end construction or cleaning jobs. With a dozen years of record breaking growth forming peoples attitudes , cheap money and unlimited labour Ireland was in a prime position for a boom. Through in a government egging it all on and you have the mess we are in.

gurramok

cfcj wrote: »

So in line with the nature of the thread isn't it about time to start thinking about how to get out of the depression, realistic steps that is?

Stop watching and listening to sensationalist media coverage talking of 'green shoots'. This is a term used by MP Shriti Vadera a few months ago to and holds no grounds, its subjective and as vague as a media soundbite can be.

The IMF is not the only authority on economics, I'm not saying they are right or wrong but its an opinion, they have been heavily critisised for economic recommendations and policy in the past, particularly with regard to US policy, Brazil & Argentina. Just yesterday I watched a report from a UK agency that had made a more conservative estimate on the UK recovery then the IMF. So again its speculative based on the picture they have at any given time. Things change.

Nobody predicted the huge boom that Ireland had, it was a false boom because our production is now next to nothing with the multi-nationals controlling 80% of our total export, whatever you think of the internal economics. Of course Ireland was gonna fall faster and quicker than a lot of our counterparts, Iceland had an over reliance on the financial sector when the bottom went out of it as a repercussion of the tumble in the US, added to by bad banking practices and ill thought out/naive schemes not just here but also in other jurisdictions that have affected us. I suggest you have it the wrong way around, International problems has caused the problems and internal economics have attributed to the scale of it. If the government 'had done everything correct' as people have put it we would still be in an economic meltdown because of our international dependance.

The problem is now our trade surplus is decreasing. We are not a traditionally wealthy country and cannot survive on a trade deficit, so real issues aren't being addressed. Killing off of Irish production in favour of cheap imports is a major threat to the economy. Pay of judges, that seems to be grabbing headlines at the moment, is showbiz news in comparison.

I think you can pump in so much energy and time in pointing the finger, but again in line with the theme of this thread its time for action. There is other threads if you want to join the negative masses and whine.

The Irish housing bubble started to burst in late 2006. The 'Credit Crunch' begain in August 2007.

Now, stop trying to defend the govt in all of this. Its is 100% worthy to point the finger, the reason is this:
Cowen was Minister for Finance during the bubble and did nothing to stop it. He is leader of the country now so his record has to be highlighted if you want any economic recovery.

To look for positivity from the man that was responsible for most of the current problems is just crazy talk.

Put someone new FF or opposition in charge and then confidence may return.

We have not even balanced the public finances yet, more pain down the line hence justified negativity.

By the way, as you want to deny they had anything to do with the current problems, where do you see where economic recovery will come from?

nesf wrote: »

They aren't responsible for it, they just made things a lot worse than they could have been. A small but important difference tbh.

Yes they were. The leaders of the country did nothing to stop it, they actually cheerleaded it.

cfcj

gurramok wrote: »

The Irish housing bubble started to burst in late 2006. The 'Credit Crunch' begain in August 2007.

Now, stop trying to defend the govt in all of this. Its is 100% worthy to point the finger, the reason is this:
Cowen was Minister for Finance during the bubble and did nothing to stop it. He is leader of the country now so his record has to be highlighted if you want any economic recovery.

To look for positivity from the man that was responsible for most of the current problems is just crazy talk.

Put someone new FF or opposition in charge and then confidence may return.

We have not even balanced the public finances yet, more pain down the line hence justified negativity.

By the way, as you want to deny they had anything to do with the current problems, where do you see where economic recovery will come from?



Yes they were. The leaders of the country did nothing to stop it, they actually cheerleaded it.

I will continue to have my opinion, this is not for you to tell me to stop having it. You have yours and I have mine. I think its clear I'm not defending anyone in my posts I am entitled to give my view on it. There are threads if you want to engage in government bashing.

Personally I don't agree that the government are as culpable as its widely reported and discussed, I think its indicative of the nature of commentary i.e. sensationalistic and news hungry (at all costs) that has become the norm. Plus there is people who feel hard done by because they bought houses at totally unrealistic prices and beyond their means.

In no way do I think that a change in government will help the problem as much as it will delay any recovery. This thread is about getting us out of the situation. I wanted to discuss that... seems like nobody is really interested in anything but government bashing, thought there was enough threads for that already.

gurramok

Good for you. This is not 'your' thread.

Its great that you have so much faith in the present govt who put us in this mess in the first place to get us out of this mess.

Thats where it all falls down.

Have we seen any good economic policies to get us out of the mess since the economy started to crash? No.

So why should you still have faith in them?

You know well what will get us of this mess, its export led manufacturing and services which have been woefully neglected by the present govt since at least 2002 hence they warrant valid criticism now.

I note the following:

I am returning to education in September as a mature student. I don't have a degree and worked my way up through the retail sector. I am keen not to sit on the fence and do nothing for the economy so... during time I am in college I have proposed to a local initiative to volunteer my skills in helping local retailers compete. There is a good talent returning to Ireland with the right skill-set that can benefit the local enterprises. I don't know the best way to package it yet but surely the onus on all of us getting out of this crisis, I think someone already said about all hands on deck.

Have you any clue why Irish retail is in such a state now?

Energy costs aka ESB, high insurance, lack of competition, high min wage, high commercial rents...most stop at the door of the govt. As a nordie shopper, i have not seen any reducing of prices in Irish shops to stop us treakking over the border bar a token gesture by Tesco/Supervalu.

You talk about 'benefit the local enterprises'. Where will those enterprises get credit from when the banks don't have it?
What about the lack of support from Enterprise Ireland?

cfcj

gurramok wrote: »

Good for you. This is not 'your' thread.

Its great that you have so much faith in the present govt who put us in this mess in the first place to get us out of this mess.

Thats where it all falls down.

Have we seen any good economic policies to get us out of the mess since the economy started to crash? No.

So why should you still have faith in them?

You know well what will get us of this mess, its export led manufacturing and services which have been woefully neglected by the present govt since at least 2002 hence they warrant valid criticism now.

I note the following:


Have you any clue why Irish retail is in such a state now?

Energy costs aka ESB, high insurance, lack of competition, high min wage, high commercial rents...most stop at the door of the govt. As a nordie shopper, i have not seen any reducing of prices in Irish shops to stop us treakking over the border bar a token gesture by Tesco/Supervalu.

You talk about 'benefit the local enterprises'. Where will those enterprises get credit from when the banks don't have it?
What about the lack of support from Enterprise Ireland?

When have I claimed it was my thread? You seem to have the opinion that nobody can have any other opinion other than yours. I have said before that you are entitled to yours as I am mine. I don't need to justify or defend the government to have the opinion that I have. I simply would rather they are running the government than the opposition and I don't think that they are to blame for the situation Ireland is is. Like it or not, you have to live with it.

Irish retailing has been almost consumed by British retailing. The cloning of the British high street has spread onto our main street and the out of town malls and business parks. Tesco is not a company we should encourage in Ireland given what's happening with them in the UK plus with their unfair competitive practices with their suppliers and unethical manufacturing. Not to mention the situation with their staff almost out on strike over pay & conditions. The reduction in staffing with automated tills and outsourcing merchandisers and shelf stackers to limit responsibility for the workers and not offer the same conditions that were agreed with the unions at the take over of Quinnsworth. Primark (Penney's) is also a company that engages in manufacturing practices that would be illegal in Ireland, yet are allowed to sell here and undercut the people who don't do it, yet it is the ones that charge more for clothing not put through sweatshops that is 'uncompetitive'. If you have evidence of Dunnes Stores, I have questions about them but there is no evidence from where their clothing is made.

The fact that we have a land border with the UK and people have availed of the reduction in UK vat and favourable exchange rate is peoples prerogative, I believe its shortsighted. You cannot compare prices in Ireland to prices in the UK, they are completely different markets and it is naive to demand that we get the same as them. For a start the UK taxes are much higher than in Ireland and there is added expense which most of us here don't have to, i.e. water and 3rd level education. The government don't control what companies charge for their products, just because the UK have reduced their vat rates in an effort to spark spending doesn't mean that the Irish government should do the same. Incidentally the UK will shortly be resuming the vat rate to the 17.5% as the scheme didn't work.

Thankfully I don't share your need to blame the government for everything and thankfully we don't live in a nanny state where every breath is controlled. The markets decide the rents of commercial and domestic properties. It is within the power of the consumer to command reductions in our fuel and grocery prices. I don't believe however that this should be done by rewarding companies like Tesco who are beginning to boycott Irish suppliers and go with the over bullied British ones in order to meet their £1billion target for British suppliers that the Irish market will seem to boost.

I was in the UK when news broke that the Irish government was securing deposits in all Irish banking institutions, a move that was heavily critiqued by All EU countries, Germany in particular yet this was quick reaction to the situation that warranted this action. The funny thing is that nearly every country has adopted the same strategy.

I read on Thursday that there was a significant breakthrough with trade unions, employers and the government in a strategy for a jobs rescue fund.
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/unions-and-employers-back-83641bn-jobs-rescue-fund-plan-1789232.html seems like a policy to me.

As for Enterprise Ireland, get onto them, ask them what they are doing... maybe get involved.

I'm doing my bit to try and rescue some of the businesses I think are up against very aggressive and possibly unfair competition so they can have a hope at survival. In my opinion I don't believe the government should take the full flack for the situation and I really don't want to debate what they have or haven't done. I am satisfied they are doing their job. I personally don't shop in Northern Ireland deliberately as I want to support Irish jobs here. Seems to me that greed has made people angry more than truly investigating the reasons or possible solutions to this crisis.

nesf

gurramok wrote: »

Yes they were. The leaders of the country did nothing to stop it, they actually cheerleaded it.

Neither of those two things would cause a recession, they'd just make it worse. The Government can be blamed for failing to stem the bubble, for escalating public spending to absurd levels based on temporary tax flows and a multitude of other things but they didn't create the housing bubble, they were mere cheerleaders.

theforeigner

bernardo mac wrote: »

Step 1.Get Seanie Fitz.and his pals to surrender what assets and monies they have stashed away, to the State.A start anyway and might help to lift the prevailing gloom. Step 2.Leave

There's a friend of mine who thinks that having a job takes your freedom AWAY nothing more nothing less.
He is very quiet and VERY AGGRESSIVE at times (some people would say he is a depressed LOSER) when he is asked something like: why dont you get a job? his reply to that is: i dont want a job.

He is then asked Why?

His reply again would be:

I dont want to be on someone elses time clock
I dont want to be told how many holidays i can take a year
I dolnt want to be slaving away for the rest of my life
I dont want to die old with PENNIES
I DEFINITELY DONT to be getting up in the morning for someone else
whether or not you are payed well and then excepting paycuts then 40 years later you sit back and CROKE IT and have NOTHING to show for it
SO WHAT'S THE POINT?

What a life wasted that is.

That would be his reply to that paticular question if you know what i mean.

The only thing he does with himself when he gets out of bed at about 12 or 1 0 clock in the day (sometimes LATER) he just smokes hash and browses on the internet every day of the week and dosent regret one second of not having a job

Any suggestions from anyone PLEASE?

dvpower

theforeigner wrote: »

Any suggestions from anyone PLEASE?

Stop being friends with him.;)

cfcj

theforeigner wrote: »

T

Any suggestions from anyone PLEASE?

Well he is your friend, if he can afford to live like that unassisted then fine, who is anyone to judge him. If he is on social welfare and with that attitude then he is a hypocrite. If everyone had that attitude though how would we survive...

LookingFor

This is a slightly longer term proposal in terms of its benefit, but needs to start early. So:

1) Cut social welfare

2) Invest the savings per person in mandatory education on motivation, personal achievement, goal setting and entrepeneurship.

3) Introduce the above as core elements of our regular education system, from primary school through to college.

The most valuable part of my own education has been my 'self-education' in those areas. I actually feel cheated looking back that these things did not form a part of my formal education. IMO they should be the foundation, but they're completely absent, and only some small proportion of people latterly stumble into them almost by chance.

We have, IMO, become too dependent on the productivity of a small number of people. People here are so afraid to step out on their own and be responsible for, and to depend on, themselves more. So many people out there lack the motivation and ambition to orientate themselves towards significant personal productivity. Work is seen as a chore to get through til retirement. We need to reset our attitudes, root-and-branch, and extend the same insight the most productive people have into goals and motivation and ambition, to everyone. We need to build a society of entrepeneurs, of people who can ignore their natural inclination toward the path of least resistance...something I think we've become terrible at doing.

Problem is, with proposals like this and any longer term proposals, is that the government often can't see beyond the next election. Most politicians are too focussed on getting re-elected..and thus, naturally, on short term fixes with short term benefits. We need true statesmen, not politicians.

theforeigner wrote: »

Any suggestions from anyone PLEASE?

Get him some books on procrastination. Encourage him to start his own business. He sounds like he wants to work for himself but is possibly paralysed by fear of failure..or fear of something. Try to encourage him and his ability to succeed. Constant criticism or guilt-tripping won't get him anywhere.

halkar

--Sort out public spending, start from top including politicians.
--Stop taxing ordinary to feed above.
--Cut VAT, VRT and stupid taxes such as ones on petrol and energy.
--Possibly zone Ireland and introduce reduced corporate tax e.g. Leave Dublin CT as it is and reduce for Limerick etc to attract business.
EU won't like this but it may be possible. Better to have companies paying less CT, creating jobs than having no business and paying the unemployed with benefits. Less tax income is better than no tax income.
This will also stop internal immigration to Dublin, Galway etc and will stimulate other local businesses.
--Introduce incentives for above for companies interested setting up based on employment they create. Why only concentrate on banks feeding fat cats while there are companies’ possible making plans for closures in the coming months or years?


My 2 cents, possibly can not be done without borrowing and require some b@@ls