When will the property market bottom out?

gurramok

beeno67 wrote: »

Sure, but it is almost 2% excluding interest rates and considering this has mainly occured since Jan, I think we can reasonably expect deflation of about 4- 5% for 2009 as a whole. Excluding interest rate cuts or rises later in year. Add to that we will almost certainly have deflation next year. So house price rises would seem a long way off. However prices only dropping a further 3-4% this year may indicate stabilisation of the market.

Its energy dependent as well. Throw in the price decreses from the ESB and Bord Gais and both are still dearer than last year.

Oil prices have risen to 72$ a barrel, steady upstream over the last few months. Petrol is retailing at 1.17-1.19 a litre now, was a euro a litre at Xmas.

Expect both utility companies to cry to the regulator for increases again as that barrel price keeps going up, give it 6 months.

These rises(oil dependent) will all fuel through to higher interest rates to combat inflation(ECB) and couple with the lack of deflation in other sectors, expect deflation to pether out within a year where the average consumer will really be screwed.

Throw in tax rises and wage cuts and those trackers mortgages tracking higher interest rates, banking difficulties(NAMA & raising finance on money markets)...
all this basically means is the consumer will have less money to buy anything and that includes high priced houses hence expect price falls to continue.

amacca

CiaranC wrote: »

If this is the case generally, and people are predicting a bottom of the market at 2011/12, wouldnt this suggest that a crash is still to come?

I cant claim to be much of an expert on this or even a well informed novice but I have been looking around in parts of dublin and the midlands and as far as I can see this is the case in those areas if not in general.

I do believe that there is more of a "crash" in the real sense of the word coming. If the lowest offer thats likely to be even entertained as a starting point for a negotiation is 20 times annual earnings (not even factoring in probable decreases to those earnings) then sellers expectations are way too high and they will only come down when they are forced down. This will imo be a very slow process.

If I owned a property in a midlands town(say a 4 bedroom semi d) that was selling for €330-360k €340k in 06/07, Im unlikely to want to let it go for €140k now which is what it should be valued at by rights. Lets say its in a great area and I throw on another 40k for this, thats an offer €180k which is still €150 -180k behind what my house used to be worth and I still desperately want to believe its worth. If I was this seller Id have a hard time wrapping my head around this and Id only sell if it was forced upon me despite the fact that I may want to move etc.

As I said before It will take ages in my opinion for houses to start shifting in volume at reasonable prices. People will only sell at these prices when they are put to the pin of their collar.

oceanclub

bangersandmash wrote: »

Builders told you that? Must be reliable so. Maybe we could ask some estate agents if they can corroborate this? Tomorrow's property advertorial should confirm it.

Next up: Car salesman says now is the time to buy a car.

Every time I read a mrgaa1 post, a brain cell dies.

P.

donaghs

Since this was first posted yesterday (17th June 09), how come 4 people said property would bottom out in Q2 2009?

Does that mean that they believe prices will start rising next month?! Some suspiciously over-optimistic people out there.

Freddie59

donaghs wrote: »

Since this was first posted yesterday (17th June 09), how come 4 people said property would bottom out in Q2 2009?

Does that mean that they believe prices will start rising next month?! Some suspiciously over-optimistic people out there.

Saw that alright.

As for mrgaa1's comment that "from conversations had with builders over the past few days they have seen a HUGE rise in viewings and have received offers on properties" I would refer to the car salesman comment offered above.

We went to view a stagnant new development recently. The EA proudly declared that she never, in her wildest dreams, thought that she would shift 19................................brochures that afternoon. Kinda says it all really.

indian music

Duckjob wrote: »

...investor invested in Borris In Ossary and/or Balbriggan I'm guessing :pac:

When someone tries to convince you the current prices are "deals" alarm bells should start ringing....

:eek:I just bought a house further on from Balbriggan up the motorway towards Drogheda and I thought I got a good deal. Some current prices are below cost so we are getting the builders profit . That is a good deal to me .I needed to buy a house and I am very happy with what I got .I have a good few friends buying also .We got a deal on legal fees from a solicitors firm in town and we got great value all round

oceanclub

indian music wrote: »

:eek:I just bought a house further on from Balbriggan up the motorway towards Drogheda and I thought I got a good deal. Some current prices are below cost so we are getting the builders profit .

Oh, I thought the usual story was that builders couldn't sell below cost.

P.

SkepticOne

indian music wrote: »

:eek:I just bought a house further on from Balbriggan up the motorway towards Drogheda and I thought I got a good deal. Some current prices are below cost so we are getting the builders profit . That is a good deal to me .I needed to buy a house and I am very happy with what I got .I have a good few friends buying also .We got a deal on legal fees from a solicitors firm in town and we got great value all round

At some point builders are going to have to shift their unsold inventory whether or not it makes a profit. If you can't sell to maximise profit then you have to sell to minimise loss.

It is no different than if I overpaid for some commodity a year ago that is now going down in price. The longer I hold on to that commodity the more money I lose. I may never make a profit but I can ensure that the loss is minimised.

Or I can gamble that there will be some recovery in the market. But if I have borrowed and am paying interest that may not be an option.

What I can't do is expect the buyer to be concerned about my bad decision to overpay a year ago.

Shambo

It is great to see that just under 90% of people who replied are not falling for this nonsense that the market is close to bottoming out, maybe a sign that Irish people have finally woken up to the bulls**t peddled by EA and builders.

Daft.ie alone has 75.000 houses for sale at the minute and don't forget that a great many of those houses are from ghost estates where they put one house on the site to represent the 60/70/80 other houses that are not selling either.

Actually, I have an idea for another poll....

ntlbell

Shambo wrote: »

It is great to see that just under 90% of people who replied are not falling for this nonsense that the market is close to bottoming out, maybe a sign that Irish people have finally woken up to the bulls**t peddled by EA and builders.

Daft.ie alone has 75.000 houses for sale at the minute and don't forget that a great many of those houses are from ghost estates where they put one house on the site to represent the 60/70/80 other houses that are not selling either.

Actually, I have an idea for another poll....

you can't take the people who visit this forum as the general populas

the vast majority will believe what they read in the papers or what some idiot tells them.

Sand Wedge

Good to know that alot of people think that property not going to bottom out until 2012. Less people to compete with for bargains in 2010.

Shambo

ntlbell wrote: »

you can't take the people who visit this forum as the general populas

the vast majority will believe what they read in the papers or what some idiot tells them.[/quote]

Erm, if that was the case houses would be selling like mad now as all the vested interests are telling them ther has never been a better time to buy

TaxiManMartin

ntlbell wrote: »

you can't take the people who visit this forum as the general populas

the vast majority will believe what they read in the papers or what some idiot tells them.

The vast majority will think about buying only when they are no longer worried about their jobs.

Sweet Sue

bangersandmash wrote: »

Builders told you that? Must be reliable so. Maybe we could ask some estate agents if they can corroborate this? Tomorrow's property advertorial should confirm it.

Next up: Car salesman says now is the time to buy a car.

I work in an estate agents .Viewings are good and interest is good . The people who are buying know what they want and move quickly to get it over the line once the decision is made to go ahead . That has been my experience over the past while.:)

gurramok

Sweet Sue wrote: »

I work in an estate agents .Viewings are good and interest is good . The people who are buying know what they want and move quickly to get it over the line once the decision is made to go ahead . That has been my experience over the past while.:)

A little bit of activity don't mean the bottom is here.

I suspect they are just taking advantage of lower interest rates while they can while the rest of the prospective buyers are err examining their May pay cheque from the latest tax rises

newestUser

There's either a troll at work on this thread, or someone with a vested interest is creating new accounts to ramp property. Has anyone commented yet on all these new users (not me though!) signing up to tell us that it's never been a better time to buy in Borris-in-Ossory, or that business in the estate agents they work in is brisk?

Shambo

newestUser wrote: »

There's either a troll at work on this thread, or someone with a vested interest is creating new accounts to ramp property. Has anyone commented yet on all these new users (not me though!) signing up to tell us that it's never been a better time to buy in Borris-in-Ossory, or that business in the estate agents they work in is brisk?

Surely not, EAs are a very honest bunch and would not resort to telling us that all is well;)

Freddie59

Sweet Sue wrote: »

I work in an estate agents .Viewings are good and interest is good . The people who are buying know what they want and move quickly to get it over the line once the decision is made to go ahead . That has been my experience over the past while.:)

What is the ratio of viewings v actual purchases? Where (roughly) are you located?

Sweet Sue

newestUser wrote: »

There's either a troll at work on this thread, or someone with a vested interest is creating new accounts to ramp property. Has anyone commented yet on all these new users (not me though!) signing up to tell us that it's never been a better time to buy in Borris-in-Ossory, or that business in the estate agents they work in is brisk?

:rolleyes:I signed up because I wanted to join in the discussion about the property market . This is my job and I am interested in what people have to say about the property market because I work at the coal face in it and have done for years . I wanted to get across to you what I think .I did not say that it was a good time to buy .I said that there were people buying now and that is my experience I did not say that there was never a better time to buy in Borris in Ossory or that business was brisk. A good time for someone to buy is when they feel they want to buy and have found a house they would like to live in and which ticks the boxes for them .

I have recently sold to clients who were very satisfied with the houses they purchased and the prices they paid for them .

Possibly there are good deals in Borris in Ossory I dont know that neck of the woods

Is this site an exlusive zone for moaners ?:):):)

Sweet Sue

Freddie59 wrote: »

What is the ratio of viewings v actual purchases? Where (roughly) are you located?

Freddie The people who are viewing are the ones who have made up their minds to buy somewhere now. There are not a lot of casual viewers out like there were. On Saturdays and Sundays you had up to thirty to forty people at a viewing or more sometimes Now it is 3/4 couples . We are in a chain of offices I work in the Dublin area and am in showhomes at week ends . We are getting a number of sales each week though which is the first steady set of sales for a long time .:)

bangersandmash

Sweet Sue wrote: »

Freddie The people who are viewing are the ones who have made up their minds to buy somewhere now. There are not a lot of casual viewers out like there were.

Are you really sure about that? Over the last year we've been constantly hearing from estate agents in the media that they have a reasonably high number of viewings. But buyers cannot (inability to get a mortgage or sell their existing property) or will not (waiting for further price drops) commit to a purchase. What you're saying doesn't tally with this.

johnnyskeleton

Sand Wedge wrote: »

Good to know that alot of people think that property not going to bottom out until 2012. Less people to compete with for bargains in 2010.

They said the same thing about 2007 as well. I don't know how the property market is going to go. I am quite wary about it. Even if you think prices are going to stay the same or increase slightly, but that there is a risk they might drop further, you should think twice about taking that risk.

johnnyskeleton

Sweet Sue wrote: »

A good time for someone to buy is when they feel they want to buy and have found a house they would like to live in and which ticks the boxes for them .

Is it though? Looking back to 2007, a lot of people felt that they wanted to buy and found a house that they would like to live in and which ticked the boxes for them. Does that mean that it was a good time for them to buy?

iguana

Sweet Sue wrote: »

A good time for someone to buy is when they feel they want to buy and have found a house they would like to live in and which ticks the boxes for them

That's a very narrow view and completely forgets about affordability, job security and long-term suitability.

Even if a someone has a secure job and finds a house they would happily live in forever for a price that they can afford even if interest rates and taxes rise significantly over the next few years,* there is still the very simple matter that a 20 year mortgage is better than a 35 year one. So in a falling market, at the beginning of a deep recession, it's better to wait.

*There are very, very few people those 3 points will apply to.

Freddie59

Sweet Sue wrote: »

Freddie The people who are viewing are the ones who have made up their minds to buy somewhere now.

So EVERYONE who's viewing is going to buy a house in your opinion Sue?:rolleyes:

Sweet Sue wrote: »

are not a lot of casual viewers out like there were. On Saturdays and Sundays you had up to thirty to forty people at a viewing or more sometimes Now it is 3/4 couples .

So instead of 40 people viewing you now have eight (or four really). Out of those four couples how many have given an undertaking to buy a house?

Sweet Sue wrote: »

are in a chain of offices I work in the Dublin area and am in showhomes at week ends . We are getting a number of sales each week though which is the first steady set of sales for a long time .:)

But what is the number as a percentage Sue?

I admire the fact that you've declared yourself, unlike others, but the reality is that the banks aren't lending - especially for the wacky prices still being sought for houses in Dublin.

Rising unemployment, now interest rates rising, etc - as an EA, where do you see all this spending power coming from?

mariaalice

me and the love of my life have a 50 euro bet on a houses near where he lives....very good area of north wicklow..trustingly an expensive area, good public transport, good schools, etc

The bet is that the house ( a 3 bedroom ) will be selling for 250 euro by 2012.They were selling for 550 euro at the height of the boom. He is convinced this will happen i don't think it will. It will be interesting to see who is right.

Nobody can tell when it will bottom out.

Freddie59

mariaalice wrote: »

me and the love of my life have a 50 euro bet on a houses near where he lives....very good area of north wicklow..trustingly an expensive area, good public transport, good schools, etc

The bet is that the house ( a 3 bedroom ) will be selling for 250 euro by 2012.They were selling for 550 euro at the height of the boom. He is convinced this will happen i don't think it will. It will be interesting to see who is right.

Nobody can tell when it will bottom out.

Least of all the EAs. One EA in Waterford this week declared, in a local newspaper, that 'Waterford house prices were close to bottoming out'. Define close I say.;)

Bandit12

Sweet Sue wrote: »

I work in an estate agents .Viewings are good and interest is good . The people who are buying know what they want and move quickly to get it over the line once the decision is made to go ahead . That has been my experience over the past while.:)

Well my brother in law works in an estate agents and he say's the complete opposite. Go figure huh.

newestUser

Sweet Sue wrote: »

:rolleyes:I signed up because I wanted to join in the discussion about the property market . This is my job and I am interested in what people have to say about the property market because I work at the coal face in it and have done for years . I wanted to get across to you what I think .I did not say that it was a good time to buy .I said that there were people buying now and that is my experience I did not say that there was never a better time to buy in Borris in Ossory or that business was brisk. A good time for someone to buy is when they feel they want to buy and have found a house they would like to live in and which ticks the boxes for them .

I have recently sold to clients who were very satisfied with the houses they purchased and the prices they paid for them .

Possibly there are good deals in Borris in Ossory I dont know that neck of the woods

Is this site an exlusive zone for moaners ?:):):)

You didn't make the comments about Borris-in-Ossory (or at least, not under the Sweet-Sue username ). Some other newly registered user did. You didn't say business was 'brisk' but you did say "viewings were good, interest was good". I used 'brisk' in the sense of 'good'. We're splitting hairs here anyway.

You're entitled to your opinion. Here's mine.

New accounts springing up on bulletin boards like this, just to tell us that property in Borris-in-Ossory/Balbriggan/wherever is a good buy, are highly suspicious. If the reason you've registered with this site is to tell us this, I'm guessing you've a vested interest in property.

I also don't think that buying Irish property is a good idea for the next few years. Rising unemployment, higher taxes, oversupply, total lack of confidence, and we're at the low end of the interest rate cycle, what happens when rates go up? I don't think there's anything holding Irish property prices at their current position, and they've a way to fall yet.

That said, I'd be surprised if houses going for 550k in 2006 end up going for 250k.

If I had to take a quick guess as to when prices will bottom out, I'd sayyyyyyy...2013/2014. It's going to take a long while for this crash to play out.

DJDC

I signed up because I wanted to join in the discussion about the property market . This is my job and I am interested in what people have to say about the property market because I work at the coal face in it and have done for years

And thats where the majority of sensible people stop listening to you. You are working in a business thats in terminal decline in Ireland and thats hard to face for someone who has devoted so much of their lifes to one industry. I cant blame you for being deluded.

However you have come to the wrong place if you expect people here to believe your nonsense. Luckily as I am sure you are aware there is still many idiots out there who will still buy houses despite all the macro signals. I recommend Ask About Money, daft.ie etc. where a high concentration of these people can be found. Piece of advice..stay away from the propertypin, your ego will not doubt take a battering if you post there.