When will the property market bottom out?

beeno67

newestUser wrote: »

You didn't make the comments about Borris-in-Ossory (or at least, not under the Sweet-Sue username ). That said, I'd be surprised if houses going for 550k in 2006 end up going for 250k.

If I had to take a quick guess as to when prices will bottom out, I'd sayyyyyyy...2013/2014. It's going to take a long while for this crash to play out.

I find it hard to get your logic. You don't think some houses will fall by as much as 55% (even though they have already fallen on average by about 30+% if you believe what people on this site say) yet you do believe houses will continue to fall every year for the next 5 years. Seems a very unlikely scenario.

beeno67

DJDC wrote: »

And thats where the majority of sensible people stop listening to you. You are working in a business thats in terminal decline in Ireland and thats hard to face for someone who has devoted so much of their lifes to one industry. I cant blame you for being deluded.

However you have come to the wrong place if you expect people here to believe your nonsense. Luckily as I am sure you are aware there is still many idiots out there who will still buy houses despite all the macro signals. I recommend Ask About Money, daft.ie etc. where a high concentration of these people can be found. Piece of advice..stay away from the propertypin, your ego will not doubt take a battering if you post there.

Why are you bashing Sweet Sue. She is simply giving her opinion based on her experience. She is not saying the market is booming. She clarified that she did not say it is a good time to buy simply that some are buying. If you look at this forum a lot more people are posting about viewing houses, putting in bids and getting mortgage approval in the last few weeks than I have seen in last year. Obviously some people are considering buying. You may disagree with them for buying but I fail to see why you are getting so upset with sweet sue especially as she did declare her interest.

gurramok

beeno67 wrote: »

Why are you bashing Sweet Sue. She is simply giving her opinion based on her experience. She is not saying the market is booming. She clarified that she did not say it is a good time to buy simply that some are buying. If you look at this forum a lot more people are posting about viewing houses, putting in bids and getting mortgage approval in the last few weeks than I have seen in last year. Obviously some people are considering buying. You may disagree with them for buying but I fail to see why you are getting so upset with sweet sue especially as she did declare her interest.

The user is from a discredited profession hence the justified scepticism.

This thing about buyers, there have always been buyers since the peak in 2006, its nothing new.
Its the level of buying thats the key. A couple of buyers asking for advice here in a week does not mean the 'bottom is here' or a recovery or any of that lark.

DJDC

The reason why Irish EA's never admit that houses have further to drop is that they are either a) stupid or trying to support artifically high prices to prop up commisions. At first I thought the later but it has become increasingly obvious the former is the case in many instances. Estate Agents are used car salesmen except for houses. How many top Leaving Cert students end up becoming EA's? The answer is of course none, its the lads in the C and D class who end up selling houses for a living.

When times were good and houses only went one way then it was easy money but now things are a lot more complicated and many EA's have been proved horribly wrong in the economics/intelligence department.

oceanclub

I'll trust an estate agent, just as soon as they show me where they predicted the popping of the bubble - not a "levelling off" or a "soft landing".

Until then, they are just corporate shills.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDW_Hj2K0wo

P.

jacool

i'm a buyer, but i'm not buying
i have money but i'm not wasting it on over-priced rubbish
i will not buy until there is value out there
there is no value out there at the moment

take the basic four times your wages test for a drive against current house prices and you get nothing for that money

god forbid you look at what they get in europe for 4 times their wages !!

and finally, the build quality is shocking on all the slapdash, quick build, trash that was quite literally thrown up in the last 10 years

i'm waiting until 2011, and then if its not improved, i'm off

iguana

DJDC wrote: »

The reason why Irish EA's never admit that houses have further to drop is that they are either a) stupid or trying to support artifically high prices to prop up commisions.

Actually all the EAs I know have a number of investment properties. They are usually trying to keep prices high in order to maintain the value of their portfolio.

newestUser

beeno67 wrote: »

I find it hard to get your logic. You don't think some houses will fall by as much as 55% (even though they have already fallen on average by about 30+% if you believe what people on this site say) yet you do believe houses will continue to fall every year for the next 5 years. Seems a very unlikely scenario.

It was late at night, these were very rough figures. I was thinking that the price falls will be small by the time we get to 2012/13/14. And what do we classify as the bottom of the market? When prices start rising? When prices stop falling? Do these rises/falls have to be month on month? Year on year? Are we talking real or nominal values? My guesstimate leaves a lot of things open to debate. My figures are subject to revision. Please feel free to contradict me! I do think that prices will stay falling for a long time, but as the bottom of the market approaches, the year-on-year pricefalls will get smaller.

boardswalker

Here are a few thoughts about the property market.

Sentiment plays a much bigger role in the market than logic. When the market is booming large numbers jump on board because they are afraid of being left behind. When the market is falling large numbers stay out because they fear further falls.

When the property market stops climbing, it seems to come to sudden stop. When property is increasing it climbs slowly at the start of the climb, near the top the climb is much faster as momentum builds up.

I am convinced that there are some areas of the country where there are more unsold/unoccupied houses than other. For example, near Sligo, Carrickonshannon there appear to be loads of empties and its hard to see prices increasing there for a long long time. On the other hand in Galway City (not Galway County), where there seems to have been a shortage of planning staff there were much less new builds during the boom. So I would expect prices to hold out stronger here. I am told that Dublin City had similar low build levels. Location would appear to be very important in terms of what will happen to be prices.

Irish people have historically preferred to buy rather than rent. In my experience, it is more difficult to make a house your own when renting as you are limited as to what changes you can make. In the last 25 years I have lived in 7 houses - 3 owned and 4 rented. We found renting hard as, generally,the quality of rented accomodation and of the fittings in ireland is not great. If your children are in local schools, then you want to stay living near the schools and when renting you have less control over where you live. Rent may not be dead money but most irish prefer to buy for a combination of reasons.

The banks are getting more requests for funding than last year but they are approving very few. It appears only AIB & BoI are really lending and even then, to get an approval from AIB/BoI, you need to be in a rock-solid job. As one of yesterdays paper reported, the UK owned banks appear to be pricing themselves out of the market. This would make you think that house prices will tend to get lower.

There appears to be more interest in buying now but the EAs have to do a lot more work to get a sale agreed. Even when they get a sale agreed, I am hearing that only about 1 in 4 sticks i.e. the other 3 cannot go on to close for various reasons. To me that means that many people think we are near the bottom and would buy if they could. Remember sentiment is important.

Many years ago, a boss advised me not to try to make money on a home (notice I don't just say house). His advice was that a home is a place to live and if I liked the house and area, and if the accomodation cost was reasonable and affordable for me and if I was likely to remain in the same area for a reasonable period of time, then buying would appear to be a good option. That advice still holds.

If I was sure property would fall further, i would consider selling now and buying later at a cheaper price. I haven't done that because firstly, I am not sure they will fall eough to make it worthwhile. The transaction costs on buying and selling are still high so the prices would need to fall something like 2.5% plus stamp duty % plus removal costs plus two sets of legal fees before I would be making any gain. I would probably cost more for me to me to rent a similar place compared to the current mortgage repayments. Also I like where I live and don't want the disruption of a move. Finally, can I be sure I can time the re-entry back into home ownership well enough. So current home owners are less likely to sell voluntarily.

If you don't currently own a home then its a different decision with different factors.

Remember, that if you eventually want to own a home, whether you buy or not, you are taking a risk. You can buy and house prices can fall further. You can stay renting and miss out on an unexpected price increase. No-one can guarantee what will happen.

A few years ago, almost all the commentators were saying everything was rosy and predicting continued growth ableit lower growth. Now almost all the commentators are unanimous in predicting hard times. Why have these economic forecasters suddenly become reliable. They are as reliable now as they were then. Their economic forecasts were based on assumptions then as they are now. Remember assumptions are just assumptions.

If you are considering buying a home, you should look at what is best for you and your family in the long haul, taking in all considerations - job security, family situation etc.

Grawns

I agree what some of what you say but here are some points on your opinion

"Irish people have historically preferred to buy rather than rent."

True, I was explaining to my non-Irish husband that we didn't have a good quality rental stock available in the past. Not true now due to surplus of apartments and new builds, and falling rents - many people will be happy to rent. Especially when they see there parents and friends in negative equity.

"If I was sure property would fall further, i would consider selling now and buying later at a cheaper price."

You wish! having cash in this market makes the best sense but is not easy. Nobody is going to pay what you paid so unless you have substantial equity and are willing to sell at a substantial loss you can't sell and buy later.

"His advice was that a home is a place to live and if I liked the house and area, and if the accomodation cost was reasonable and affordable for me and if I was likely to remain in the same area for a reasonable period of time, then buying would appear to be a good option. That advice still holds."

In a market that is dropping renting is sensible. I have a small child so will be buying in the future ( 2-3 years away) paying attention to schools and crime and transport. That is a good reason to buy a home.

20goto10

jacool wrote: »

i'm a buyer, but i'm not buying
i have money but i'm not wasting it on over-priced rubbish
i will not buy until there is value out there
there is no value out there at the moment

take the basic four times your wages test for a drive against current house prices and you get nothing for that money

god forbid you look at what they get in europe for 4 times their wages !!

and finally, the build quality is shocking on all the slapdash, quick build, trash that was quite literally thrown up in the last 10 years

i'm waiting until 2011, and then if its not improved, i'm off

Maybe at 4 times your wage, but at 4 times my wage you can get a very, very nice house.

My point being every case is different. Just because you can't afford a house dosn't mean the whole housing market needs to drop to meet your needs.

Also, the basic 4 times your wage test does not specify a particular standard of house. It means if you can buy any house at all at 4 times your wage....which you have admitted you can.

spockety

20goto10 wrote: »

Maybe at 4 times your wage, but at 4 times my wage you can get a very, very nice house.

My point being every case is different. Just because you can't afford a house dosn't mean the whole housing market needs to drop to meet your needs.

Also, the basic 4 times your wage test does not specify a particular standard of house. It means if you can buy any house at all at 4 times your wage....which you have admitted you can.

I think it will end up meaning that at 4 times your wage, you will be able to buy a house in an area where other people also earning around 4 times your age have historically been living and able to buy.

Right now, that isn't the case, as there are loads of people out there earning, for example €40K, living in very nice areas just because they happened to buy there before 1998, but other people earning €40K haven't a hope in hell of buying there right now because house prices in the area are 10x 40K rather than the historical 4x 40K.

It's the demographics. When social groupings find their way back to their traditional living areas the market will have normalled. No more doctors buying 2 bed ex-corpo houses in Ringsend for silly money, and having working class neighbours who can afford to live there just because they bought pre-98.

20goto10

spockety wrote: »

I think it will end up meaning that at 4 times your wage, you will be able to buy a house in an area where other people also earning around 4 times your age have historically been living and able to buy.

Right now, that isn't the case, as there are loads of people out there earning, for example €40K, living in very nice areas just because they happened to buy there before 1998, but other people earning €40K haven't a hope in hell of buying there right now because house prices in the area are 10x 40K rather than the historical 4x 40K.

It's the demographics. When social groupings find their way back to their traditional living areas the market will have normalled. No more doctors buying 2 bed ex-corpo houses in Ringsend for silly money, and having working class neighbours who can afford to live there just because they bought pre-98.

I don't agree. It of course all depends on the infrastructure and development in the area. You could have bought a house in 1999 that was in the middle of nowhere and is now 10 years later slap bang in the middle of it all. Why should someone come along and buy the house next door for the same price you paid 10 years ago? Now if you're saying that the price of that house has increased over the 10 years for no good reason at all, then yes I would agree.

NewFrockTuesday

I dont think we are anywhere near bottoming out. Ive been on myhome briefly looking for a one bed apt in the city center. 200g + is still what is being asked. Thats mad money. Im saying that as a homeowner as well. Im beginning to think Id be as well off paying the extra 20 -30g for a 2 bed. Its very frustrating and Im as confused now about buying as I was the first time round. I think I might just rent. A friend of mine is living in a great flat in Phisboro. You know those red bricked houses with the steps going up to them? Shes got lovely high ceilings, big enough rooms and a great location for €675 p/m. Shes the one who made me sit up and think why should I be living in the burbs when Ive no family etc.

Alot of EA bashing going on....much of it deserved Im sure. But I do know of one or two who are actually very good at their jobs and work really hard at selling the properties on their books.

boardswalker

Grawns wrote: »

True, I was explaining to my non-Irish husband that we didn't have a good quality rental stock available in the past. Not true now due to surplus of apartments and new builds, and falling rents

I don't think that the quality of most builds in the last 4-5 years was good. Also many apartment scheme management companies are having cash flow trouble leading to problems with refuse electricity maintenance etc. Rental isn't all easy peasy.

Grawns wrote: »

You wish! having cash in this market makes the best sense but is not easy. Nobody is going to pay what you paid so unless you have substantial equity and are willing to sell at a substantial loss you can't sell and buy later.

What led you to believe I would have to sell at below cost? Many people, despite the recent falls, still have substantial equity in their home. Don't believe all you read. A lot of the houses in my estate would have cost the owners 25-50% of their current value and I am not talking about the maximum value the houses were up to, just the current value.
By the way your last sentence in this paragraph does not make sense. If you have substantial equity you would be unlikely to sell at a loss. I think you have an "and" where you meant an "or."

Grawns wrote: »

In a market that is dropping renting is sensible. I have a small child so will be buying in the future ( 2-3 years away) paying attention to schools and crime and transport. That is a good reason to buy a home.

The point of this thread is that no one knows how long property will continue to drop or if you will manage to get aboard exactly at the bottom of the cycle. Overall, my point is that its not that simple and don't let the "experts" convince you that it is.

Freddie59

beeno67 wrote: »

Why are you bashing Sweet Sue. She is simply giving her opinion based on her experience.

'Her' experience being the operative words.;)

And we are merely pointing the everyday reality of the crash that goes on around us? This is considered bashing?

Freddie59

newestUser wrote: »

And what do we classify as the bottom of the market? When prices start rising? When prices stop falling? Do these rises/falls have to be month on month? Year on year?

If you are ACTUALLY an EA then it is very worrying.:rolleyes: The history of international property bubbles (visit www.thepropertypin.com) demonstrates that prices continue to fall - then level out for several months (maybe even a couple of years). You should then see a gradual, realistic, rise in prices, linked to inflation.

You could see a 'dead cat bounce' - where prices briefly spike before continuing their inevitable fall.

Freddie59

iguana wrote: »

Actually all the EAs I know have a number of investment properties. They are usually trying to keep prices high in order to maintain the value of their portfolio.

Great post - and explains an awful lot.

newestUser

Freddie59 wrote: »

If you are ACTUALLY an EA then it is very worrying.:rolleyes:

If I'm an EA???

beeno67

Freddie59 wrote: »

'Her' experience being the operative words.;)

And we are merely pointing the everyday reality of the crash that goes on around us? This is considered bashing?

It depends what is said. SweetSue said she had some interest in property she was selling and had sold some houses. She did not say more that that. The reply she got was
"However you have come to the wrong place if you expect people here to believe your nonsense"

That is bashing. It is basically saying she is lying without knowing anything about her except that she is an EA.
By the way the bottom of the market is obviously the point where prices stop falling just as the top was where prices stopped rising.

newestUser

beeno67 wrote: »

By the way the bottom of the market is obviously the point where prices stop falling just as the top was where prices stopped rising. [/I]

I don't think it's as simple as that. As I said in a previous post on this thread, there are various ways to define price (real, nominal), and changes in price (month on month, year on year), and I haven't even addressed the question of where you get those prices from. Do we use the Permanent TSB stats, even though they're widely acknowledged to be several months out of date, and not necessarily reflective of the actual price paid for houses (I'm not expert on the Permanent TSB methodology, but people have disputed the validity of their index). I'm resident in the UK at the moment: here, there are a number of price indices: Halifax, Nationwide, Land Registry, Rightmove (a version of DAFT), all of which are given some degree of creedence (the Land Registry seems to be the most trusted), but which sometimes contradict each other (Halifax could say prices are rising, but Nationwide say they're falling).

the butcher

If people think it is going to bottom out in the next 3 years they are either a vested interest or just plain stupid.

Anyone with a brain knows whats ahead in terms of rising unemployment, hundreds of thousands of empty housing stock, deflation, 25billion+ deficit, banking problem, rising emmigration and in the future rising interest rates.

House prices are going down down down....you'd be a fool to buy now and only have yourself to blame.

Gurgle

the butcher wrote: »

If people think it is going to bottom out in the next 3 years they are either a vested interest or just plain stupid.

Anyone with a brain knows whats ahead in terms of rising unemployment, hundreds of thousands of empty housing stock, deflation, 25billion+ deficit, banking problem, rising emmigration and in the future rising interest rates.

House prices are going down down down....you'd be a fool to buy now and only have yourself to blame.

:rolleyes:
so have you got this friday's euromillions numbers too?

NewFrockTuesday

the butcher wrote: »

If people think it is going to bottom out in the next 3 years they are either a vested interest or just plain stupid.

Anyone with a brain knows whats ahead in terms of rising unemployment, hundreds of thousands of empty housing stock, deflation, 25billion+ deficit, banking problem, rising emmigration and in the future rising interest rates.

House prices are going down down down....you'd be a fool to buy now and only have yourself to blame.

Another example of how its becoming impossible in here to post without throwing some form of insult into it. I agree with the butcher but the way the point is put across is so typical of the way a point is structured in here as of late, that I find myself not wanting to bother to enter a thread even though the topic might be interesting because its just going ot be "you fool" or "anyone with a brain".

Ive not been sleeping well of late and find myself glued to cnbc late at night cos theres only so much CSI I can take Anyway, they’ve had some really interesting documentaries on about the world economy and people like Bernie Madoff and how they got away with 50 million schemes that were basically a pyramid. One report about two weeks ago skipped around the idea that a sub sub prime market is about to emerge and throw the world economy into complete chaos on a scale that we have never seen before. Tbh, it freaked the hell out of me. It was real go out and stock up on the shotguns, rice and canned soup sort of stuff. Sensationalist reporting - or is it?

House prices might be the least of our worries down the line if this came to pass. I think whilst we may be nearing the bottom of the market in the next year or two, maybe three but the recovery will be so painful that it wont make a difference. We’re still going to be paying the piper long into our futures - basically I think I can negate my working life to the recovery. Maybe my kids might have a chance if we work this properly, but for us, the fun times are over. We can look forward to more levys, falling house values, more defaults, tax increases and introduction of new taxes for whatever they can find. Water and property being two to start.

Its not looking pretty. If even I understand this (and trust me Im no Einstein), why are some people still burying their heads? The sooner we face up to the scale of the HUGE mess were in the better.

the butcher

Gurgle wrote: »

:rolleyes:
so have you got this friday's euromillions numbers too?

Lottery is a waste of time. Can you not discuss the points I raised no? :rolleyes:

the butcher

Deepsense wrote: »

Another example of how its becoming impossible in here to post without throwing some form of insult into it. I agree with the butcher but the way the point is put across is so typical of the way a point is structured in here as of late, that I find myself not wanting to bother to enter a thread even though the topic might be interesting because its just going ot be "you fool" or "anyone with a brain".

I'm sick of the Irish attitude to housing, we have been fed enough bull the last 10 years about property and it's about time people saw it for what it was. The social implications for the families in negativy equity & defaulting is huge. Fianna Fail, the media, every joe soap filled their heads with fantasy about 3 bed shoeboxes with no car parking spaces.

The facts are clear on this matter, previous bubbles in other countries give us a great indication that it will after 2012.

gurramok

Gurgle wrote:

so have you got this friday's euromillions numbers too?

Don't let economic facts get in the way of your judgement.

Do you disagree with the following by Fintan O'Toole and Michael Punch of UCD?
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0630/1224249784689.html

Beneath the hysteria generated by the availability of credit (personal debt went from 58 per cent of disposable income in 1996 to 175 per cent in 2007), Punch shows that houses really did become steadily less affordable. In 1994, the average price of a new home was €72,000. If this had increased in line with average earnings, it would have been €124,000 in 2007. In fact, it was €323,000.

By reversing the notion that State policy should be centred on the belief that cheap housing was a good thing, we puffed house prices up to 2½ times what they should have been.

Now, if you disagree...put your points across based on economics, not rants.

D3PO

the butcher wrote: »

, hundreds of thousands of empty housing stock, .

right here proof you havent a clue what your talking about. housing stock is about 45,000 excess right now not hundreds of thousands. :rolleyes:

ntlbell

D3PO wrote: »

right here proof you havent a clue what your talking about. housing stock is about 45,000 excess right now not hundreds of thousands. :rolleyes:

wtf?

where did you get 45,000 from?


wasn't there about 250k empties inc holiday homes only as far back as 6 months ago

we;re down to 45k all ready?

gurramok

D3PO wrote: »

right here proof you havent a clue what your talking about. housing stock is about 45,000 excess right now not hundreds of thousands. :rolleyes:

You're talking about unsold stock. The poster is talking about empty often sold stock.
Source CSO 2006 and ESB connections.

Each unoccupied property most often has a mortgage on it hence each one that gets into difficulty affects the market.