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When will the property market bottom out?
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BlackWizard wrote: »Now you want him to explain how the property market works and what it is affected by.
hmm your comprehension isnt too sharp. I asked him to explain his point. he got it wrong re housing stock then reverting to including holiday homes in his numbers. My point is holiday homes that are owned and not for sale have no impact on house prices. He seems to think they do. There is no basis for this so if he thinks there is then he should explain it.
how is that asking how the property market works please go troll somewhere else :rolleyes:0 -
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Nice nickname. Where exactly is Borris In Ossory?
Must get down there pronto to buy
I'll have you know it's an outer Dublin suburb on the Laois/Tipperary border with a burgeoning population of 200 and boasting a skyline resembling Manhattan. (seriously population roughly correct but buildings in the area could accommodate 4-5000 people easily, many of them apartments !!!!). It will be at the junction of 2 motorways however so maybe interesting from that perspective.0 -
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OK, why not.
Based on....
Previous property bubbles, once they burst, the reduction in price did not just last 3 years, it was more which is why I voted after 2012. When after 2012? That's when I'll get out my lottery ticketmeh
Your not even debating. The 25 billion deficit and the banking crisis will effect us more then any other factor. Simply put it will reduce people's purchasing power, bank's lending as we know has tighten up and less and less housing are being sold. Can you counter these points or just talk crap?We're going to have deflation and rising interest rates at the same time?
Are you sure about this?
Other EU countries will be out of this recession before us have no doubt about that. ECB will eventually increase the rates on Irish home owners already struggling with higher taxes and paycuts will be hit again.And we're back to where we started 'I know this for a fact and anyone who thinks otherwise is wrong'. Crystal ball again?
So we should all just shut up and not discuss this? You havent countered any of my points. All my points back up that this will lead to less mortgages given out and more housing stock put on the market.0 -
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D3PO wrote:prices are likely to remain static for a period of time before picking up once they settle. They wont pick up soon, but unlike the post a few pages ago the indicators would predict they wont continue to fall for another 3 years like is being mooted.
Bookmarked post for future reference
What indicators? Enlighten us.Fair point on rents fallling, though I don't see them going through the floor. I know there's some adjustment to make for oversupply but does sound like you're getting a great deal. Back in '99 I was renting a not so nice 2-bed in town for £800, so just under e1000. Not sure if deflation will take us back beyond ten years though I could be wrong.
Back then in 1999, there was a genuine shortage of rental accommodation hence high rents.
There is *some* cushion to rents and has been for years, that is Rent Allowance. The recent Bord Snip report has been leaked as that this welfare is going to be tackled by reducing further the amount they give to subsidised rentals in the private sector.
This, along with chronic oversupply and emigration will further hammer rents.0 -
Pretty explosive hour on this thread
I would ask now, to those who are being more bullish here, do you think the market has actually bottomed now?
If not, how long more do you think it will continue to fall?
And if you believe it will continue to fall (and you must if you don't think it has already bottomed), what are the factors that will force it to continue falling?
And of those factors, what will make them "go away" in a short period which will enable the market to truly bottom and level off or even pick up again?0 -
Bookmarked post for future reference
What indicators? Enlighten us.
Dont forget to bookmark my disclaimer also
regarding indicators
main ones would be
Irish Governments fiscal plan to get back to below 6% borrowing of GDP in 3 years time. Logic would dictate that would then lead to relaxation around government spending.
Economic outlook regarding employment OECD and many others indicating that globally employment will probably pick back up Q2 next year with Ireland lagging by about 3 quarters.
Constructino forcasts regarding residential house building. Indicates the current housing stock excess will reduce.
and so on so forth.
again nothing is gauranteed if it was id be in the Bahamas spending my millions and not posting on here 0 -
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Pretty explosive hour on this thread
I would ask now, to those who are being more bullish here, do you think the market has actually bottomed now?
If not, how long more do you think it will continue to fall?
And if you believe it will continue to fall (and you must if you don't think it has already bottomed), what are the factors that will force it to continue falling?
And of those factors, what will make them "go away" in a short period which will enable the market to truly bottom and level off or even pick up again?
ah you love it.
Im probably in the "bullish" category you mentioned. Nobody can predict how much further we will fall but if you want a precition
im going with 6 quarters more of a fall 3 quarters of stabilisation before gradual recovery if you want to use that word in terms of house priceses a lot more index linked to inflation which I expect to be somewhere in the 3.5 - 4% range
again who can tell we each take a position and we could be miles off0 -
Bookmarked post for future reference
There is *some* cushion to rents and has been for years, that is Rent Allowance. The recent Bord Snip report has been leaked as that this welfare is going to be tackled by reducing further the amount they give to subsidised rentals in the private sector.
I don't know that Rent Allowance really has that much impact, most landlords wont accept it (though that is changing in straitened times admittedly).
Someone else mentioned interest rates and that's surely a far more pressing concern. Given that recent first-timers typically have 250-300k mortgages a 1% rise means around 250euro a month (and don't forget all the high-fliers with far higher mortgages), so if rates creep up towards 5 or 6% base rate I'd expect to see all hell breaking lose, mass repossessions and subsequent fire-sales. I'm not sure if the country could sustain something like that, it'd place an incredible strain on our society as a whole.0 -
Dont forget to bookmark my disclaimer also
regarding indicators
main ones would be
Irish Governments fiscal plan to get back to below 6% borrowing of GDP in 3 years time. Logic would dictate that would then lead to relaxation around government spending.
Economic outlook regarding employment OECD and many others indicating that globally employment will probably pick back up Q2 next year with Ireland lagging by about 3 quarters.
Constructino forcasts regarding residential house building. Indicates the current housing stock excess will reduce.
and so on so forth.
again nothing is gauranteed if it was id be in the Bahamas spending my millions and not posting on here
So your just listening to other people's forecast's and are taken them at face value with no creative input or authentic thought process of your own?
Where will the jobs in Ireland be generated?
are we going to become a global super power in green energy?
will the knowledge economy suddenly sprout wings?
have you any actuall thoughts of your own on it?
it just sounds like you over heard some moron on newstalk and re spouted it here0 -
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Dont forget to bookmark my disclaimer also
regarding indicators
main ones would be
Irish Governments fiscal plan to get back to below 6% borrowing of GDP in 3 years time. Logic would dictate that would then lead to relaxation around government spending.
Economic outlook regarding employment OECD and many others indicating that globally employment will probably pick back up Q2 next year with Ireland lagging by about 3 quarters.
Constructino forcasts regarding residential house building. Indicates the current housing stock excess will reduce.
and so on so forth.
again nothing is gauranteed if it was id be in the Bahamas spending my millions and not posting on here
Public finances - thats a 5yr plan of around €4bn-€5bn a year. How is that 'relaxation around government spending'?
Q2 2010, you say 3 quarters later and if my maths are right, thats Q1 2011 you say Ireland will pick up?
Construction- you are relying on excess stock to clear in order to stimulate demand.
Afraid, it does not work like that.
-What about the 30,000 odd people a year that die, most would own houses -then we deal with emigration, immigrants leaving aka demographics
-access to credit, its getting more restricted...aka normal lending on the horizon
-interest rates going up for eurozone as they will be recovered first
-and it all depends on the economy dealing with a predicted structural 17% unemployment rate by then.
If i read it right, you are saying Q1 2011 will be when the house prices will bottom out based on your economic indicators, correct?0 -
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