Boards.ie Questions and Answers Session with Mark Little about Events in Iran

RTE Prime Time: Mark

Hi again.

Mark Little - our presenter and former RTÉ foreign correspondent - will be online tomorrow morning to answer questions about the on-going events in Iran. Mark has reported from there several times and has been in contact with sources and friends in area for the last number of days. If you have any questions or wish to leave comments about what's happening please feel free to do so here. Obviously if there is a slew of comments he may not have the time to answer them all (we're live tomorrow night at 2130, so pretty busy), but he'll try to get around to as many as possible.

We won't be using your questions as part of the show this time, this is just to try and help Irish people get some context directly from a trusted voice with background knowledge of the events taking place in Iran.

You can also put questions to Mark through our Twitter account.

dueyfinster

Do you think the protesters will eventually be beaten down? or can they cause Another revolution.

Let me clarify this as I'd really like you find this out. Apparently Moussavi only represents the upper middle class and well educated, hence the pictures we've seen from Tehran University and the Adhmedinejad basically has the support of the poor majority. If this is true, is the overturning of the result at all possible?

Agent Smith

Prime Time wrote: »

Hi again.

Mark Little - our presenter and former RTÉ foreign correspondent - will be online tomorrow morning to answer questions about the on-going events in Iran. Mark has reported from there several times and has been in contact with sources and friends in area for the last number of days. If you have any questions or wish to leave comments about what's happening please feel free to do so here. Obviously if there is a slew of comments he may not have the time to answer them all (we're live tomorrow night at 2130, so pretty busy), but he'll try to get around to as many as possible.

We won't be using your questions as part of the show this time, this is just to try and help Irish people get some context directly from a trusted voice with background knowledge of the events taking place in Iran.

You can also put questions to Mark through our Twitter account.

Hi, Fantastic idea!


Could you clarify the Twitter address?

dueyfinster

Agent Smith wrote: »

Hi, Fantastic idea!


Could you clarify the Twitter address?

http://twitter.com/RTE_PrimeTime

RTE Prime Time: Mark

Apologies, I meant to link directly to our Twitter account. How foolish of me.

Dueyfinster got it right with www.twitter.com/rte_primetime

Just to clarify, it'll be a text-based Q+A, not via Ustream or some other video platform. While we're looking at using those types of tools in the future, it's too short notice this time around.

As one may expect Mark is a busy guy (I'm sure many Boards.ie members are also) so he may not be able to sit and answer questions on a rolling basis for a four hour period. He will have research to do, interviews to line up etc etc tomorrow which don't always fit into his planned schedule. So, even though I'm sure most of you understand this already, your questions may get answered immediately, even during the 11-2 time period we've sort of set-aside for this. However - if (hopefully, when) the questions are here I'm positive he'll make an effort to come back and answer them as soon as he can, even if that means coming back on Friday after the show <plug>Thursdays, 930pm, RTÉ One</plug> is done and things have calmed down a little in the office. Saying that, the aim is to answer a load of questions early tomorrow and become part of the conversation.

Dueyfinster, your question is in the bag. Thanks for getting the ball rolling...

Funglegunk

Hi Mark,

Do you think that Mousavi is the true leader of this protest movement, or has he just become a figurehead or rallying point for Iranians desperate for a more radical change than he actually represents?

And how much do Mousavi's policy positions, particularly foreign policy, really differ from Ahmadinejad's?

Dirk Gently

Are the protests genuine and spontaneous, sparked by the fear of vote rigging or were elements inside and outside Iran planning to manipulate Iranian opposition into mobilising on the streets regardless. Does the evidence support mass vote rigging?

How reliable were opinion polls before the election which predicted a tight race and if vote rigging occurred why make it so obvious, in light of those polls which predicted a much tighter race. What purpose would it serve to misrepresent the opinion polls?

If Adhmedinejad was outed, and a new moderate government installed, more open to the west, would that be a good thing or a bad thing with regard to stability within the country itself and the effect it would have on other countries such as Syria and Lebanon?

If proved true and the election was a sham, how likely would it be that Adhmedinejad and/or the hardline clerics will allow another election or stand down? Would there be a civil war or an eventual peaceful transfer of power?

Sully

The media are reporting that there are a lot of people protesting at the results of the election. Are those protesting genuine supporters of Mousavi? If so, and I assume they are people who actually did vote, is it a clear indication that a much larger number actually voted for him rather then results announced earlier by Ahmadinejad, thus casting a doubt on the overall election results? I wonder can the turn out from the protesters indicate anything that does not add up in terms of the overall result. Its possible that a large chunk of protesters are the usual "thugs" that join to create trouble with their true intentions not as they make out.

The results were announced differently - was there any indication as to why? Have the protests not spurred them to be announced correctly for clarification? The offer to partial recount - the protests as I understand refuse to accept and want a re-take of the elections. What is to stop the same event happening again, if the results were fixed?

The media ban and the strong police presence which escalated to shootings earlier, is this an attempt to censor the election results or a method of calming the situation and allowing a discussion on a full/partial recount? What really caused the shootings - I believe the protests are claiming it was a peaceful protest and they just started shooting claiming thugs starting trouble.

Have the press who defied this got into much trouble? I understood accusations were made against the BBC for covering it and they were unhappy with Americas comments.

Finally, what difference would it make if the results were overturned for the rest of the world?

dueyfinster

RTE Prime Time (Mark) wrote: »

Apologies, I meant to link directly to our Twitter account. How foolish of me.

Dueyfinster got it right with www.twitter.com/rte_primetime
......
Dueyfinster, your question is in the bag. Thanks for getting the ball rolling...

Thanks a million, look forward to reading the answer. Love Primetime, thanks for a great show!

Orlaithf

Mousavi has been described in the past by an Iranian oppostion member as a "pocket-sized version of Ayatollah Khomeini". My question is how much of a reformist is he really? He shares many similarities with Ahmadinejad in that he has stated that he wants Iran to continue nuclear enrichment and he refuses to recognise Israel. These are both pivotal issues which will impact any future diplomatic relationship with the US and the United Nations. He has made calls for disbanding the religious police but even Ahmadinejad himself has moved away from the religious mullahs and is more at home with the military leaders. Does Mousavi really hold out the promise of significant change for Iran?

Dave!

Interesting idea, Primetime!

Briefly: is this likely to descend into civil war, given the rather intense hostility between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi supporters?

I'll probably be glued to the TV tomorrow (thank you recession!) to see what happens with this planned march. I predict chaos unfortunately

lostexpectation

is the west just getting the better off, internet connected view, when it said that Ahmadinejad is genuinely popular with larger poorer rural vote, just like sinatwa in thailand.


Straight Question to Mark. Did Mousavi win the election. YES or NO.

lostexpectation

does rte generally double check stories or take them straight off the wires?

sparklepants

We are led to understand that the protests have been organised over the Internet. Given that the Internet in Iran is estimated to be accessible to only one third of the population of 70 million and mainly to the middle classes in urban locations, could it be that the protesters are unrepresentative of the majority of the Iranians?

Is it possible that the middle class minority are trying to impose their will on the voiceless majority?

solice

sparklepants wrote: »

We are led to understand that the protests have been organised over the Internet. Given that the Internet in Iran is estimated to be accessible to only one third of the population of 70 million and mainly to the middle classes in urban locations, could it be that the protesters are unrepresentative of the majority of the Iranians?

Is it possible that the middle class minority are trying to impose their will on the voiceless majority?

If George Bush was still president in the US, would the "war on terrorism" now be extended into Iran?

Is Obama doing the right thing by staying quiet?

Gholimoli

Orlaithf wrote: »

Mousavi has been described in the past by an Iranian oppostion member as a "pocket-sized version of Ayatollah Khomeini". My question is how much of a reformist is he really? He shares many similarities with Ahmadinejad in that he has stated that he wants Iran to continue nuclear enrichment and he refuses to recognise Israel. These are both pivotal issues which will impact any future diplomatic relationship with the US and the United Nations. He has made calls for disbanding the religious police but even Ahmadinejad himself has moved away from the religious mullahs and is more at home with the military leaders. Does Mousavi really hold out the promise of significant change for Iran?

this is not true at all...infact in the current protest he is heavily relying on them to silence the crowed.

Sherifu

Hi Mark, have you heard and information on the number of people killed by the Islamic militia and police.

Also, have you heard any reports from your sources of soldiers, security officials and Revolutionary Guardsmen refusing orders to fire on protesters?

Thanks.

target

Hi Mark,

The religious council of Iran, in effect the Ayatollahs, have to sign off on this election. If I remember correctly Iran's supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei also very publicly endorsed Ahmadinejad.

How much of a role do you think the religious have had in the outcome of this election and the subsequent events?

Thanks

Kevin

RTE Prime Time: Mark

dueyfinster wrote: »

Do you think the protesters will eventually be beaten down? or can they cause Another revolution.

Let me clarify this as I'd really like you find this out. Apparently Moussavi only represents the upper middle class and well educated, hence the pictures we've seen from Tehran University and the Adhmedinejad basically has the support of the poor majority. If this is true, is the overturning of the result at all possible?

I think the best way to summarise this is to say Mousavi is strongest among the middle classes and well educated (and foreign observers tend to emphathise easily with that constituency) but there is evidence he has appeal among those who have been alienated by rising inflation and unemployment - particularly in working-class neighbourhoods of the big cities - and by some religious conservatives who feel he represents the purest strands of the original Islamic revolution. I wouldn't overestimate that support - Ahmadinejad is still the champion of the rural poor - but Mousavi is not simply the candidate of the urban rich.

I would say the more important source of change right now is within the elite - who seem divided by their response to the election result. I get the sense that any big move in this drama will come from within the corridors of power not exclusively from the streets.

RTE Prime Time: Mark

Sherifu wrote: »

Hi Mark, have you heard and information on the number of people killed by the Islamic militia and police.

Also, have you heard any reports from your sources of soldiers, security officials and Revolutionary Guardsmen refusing orders to fire on protesters?

Thanks.

For the latest on the mood in Iran, I am keeping in contacts with old friends in Tehran but for the very latest information on casualties , I am following the live blog on the Huffington Post. I would treat some of the reports we hearing with caution, although I have heard some reputable sources reporting acts of solidarity between protestors and police (particularly in Isfahan). Still, treat everything you hear right now with caution.

Mucco

Hi Mark,

In 1953 the CIA instigated a coup against the Mossadegh because they were concerned about the risk of communism in Iran, and therefore wanted a western-friendly regime. The British also wanted to get at Iranian oil after Mossadegh threw them out of the country.
Is there any suspicion in Iran that there is western influence behind the current protests?

Thanks,

M

RTE Prime Time: Mark

target wrote: »

Hi Mark,

The religious council of Iran, in effect the Ayatollahs, have to sign off on this election. If I remember correctly Iran's supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei also very publicly endorsed Ahmadinejad.

How much of a role do you think the religious have had in the outcome of this election and the subsequent events?

Thanks

Kevin

I think it is import to remember that - like almost every institution in Iran - the religious establishment is no monolith; there are differences of opinion among the clerics. You are right that Khamenei has backed Ahmadinejad in his own particular fashion, but another influential cleric Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has thrown his considerable weight behind Mousavi. Rafsanjani is reportedly based right now in the city of Qom - which you might think of as the Vatican of the Iranian clerical establishment - and I would keep a very close eye on what he does next.

RTE Prime Time: Mark

Mucco wrote: »

Hi Mark,

In 1953 the CIA instigated a coup against the Mossadegh because they were concerned about the risk of communism in Iran, and therefore wanted a western-friendly regime. The British also wanted to get at Iranian oil after Mossadegh threw them out of the country.
Is there any suspicion in Iran that there is western influence behind the current protests?

Thanks,

M

I think all Iranians - liberal and conservative, rural and urban - are always suspicious of Western influence (or Westoxification, as the original Islamic revolutionaries called it). That is why you will not hear serious calls for Western intervention from those leading the protests in Iran. And that is why Obama has been restrained in his response. The conservatives are, of course, tapping into memories of Western intervention and there is considerable focus on a hidden imperialist hand in the protests among the establishment media.

Sherifu

RTE Prime Time (Mark) wrote: »

For the latest on the mood in Iran, I am keeping in contacts with old friends in Tehran but for the very latest information on casualties , I am following the live blog on the Huffington Post. I would treat some of the reports we hearing with caution, although I have heard some reputable sources reporting acts of solidarity between protestors and police (particularly in Isfahan). Still, treat everything you hear right now with caution.

That's where i'm following it too amongst other places.

Thanks.

Link for anyone that wants it.

irishconvert

Why is there such a massive western media focus on this situation in Iran? Very significant and important stories such as ex-US president Jimmy Carter's visit to Gaza and his comment that Palestinians are being treated like animals has gone virtually unreported in western media. Is there some kind of agenda at work here? The folowing post from another boards.ie member sums it up perfectly for me:

"I noticed there is a marked difference between the media portrayal of "our" protestors over "here" and "their" protestors "over there".
All of their protestors are democracy loving and the government is violently surpressing them.
Here protestors are representing the minority view, are holding everyone to ransom, blocking traffic and "anarchists" amongst them provoke the government forces. Oh and that guy the Met police killed...well he was a bit of drunk anyway... probably would have kissed it in a few years anway...
Meanwhile Saudi Arabia hacks peoples hands off every day without even the pretense of an election.
The Iranian election is a storm in a teacup put on the front page here!
Oh and don't forget that the pres of Iran is a *Breath* HOLOCAUST DENIER *Breath*"

irishconvert

A second question for Mark:

Why do you think the western media do not broadcast any interviews with Ahmadinejad? I have seen several interviews and press conferences with him on Press TV (Iranian English speaking TV channel) including some where he was asked some hard hitting questions from the likes of Robert Fisk from the Independent. He seems like a reasonable enough man and gave some very good and interesting responses. He didn't seem anything like the tyrant Sky News and others would have us believe. And another point is that he never said that he wanted Israel wiped off the world map (or face of the earth) as repeated ad nauseam in the western media. It is a totally inaccurate translation of what he really said.

kingkane

Youth unemployment is a massive problem in Iran (and the Muslim world generally) to what exact has Ahmadinejad been able to address it at all? And has that shored up his support amongst some portions of the younger voters?

RTE Prime Time: Mark

Funglegunk wrote: »

Hi Mark,

Do you think that Mousavi is the true leader of this protest movement, or has he just become a figurehead or rallying point for Iranians desperate for a more radical change than he actually represents?

And how much do Mousavi's policy positions, particularly foreign policy, really differ from Ahmadinejad's?

You touch on a fascinating distinction. Mousavi is no radical. He is establishment to the core. But I think he represents a growing sense among powerful figures inside the power elite in Iran that the revolution they hold dear will have to change if it is to survive. I think the young protestors get that distinction. I think most of them are looking for reform in their daily lives not full-scale revolution.

On foreign policy, I don't see Mousavi stopping his country's nuclear programme but I do see him adopting a more pragmatic approach to negotiations with the West. Again, many in the power elite who are still suspicious of Western leaders are frustrated with Ahmadinejad's unsophisticated approach to the world.

solice

Hi Mark,

From a western point of view,Mousavi is no better than Ahmadinejad, he wont stop their nuclear program, he is suspicious of the west, he wont bring about significant change within the countrys leadership that will make Iran a friendly country(?)

So why should we really care about whats going on?

Solice

RTE Prime Time: Mark

irishconvert wrote: »

A second question for Mark:

Why do you think the western media do not broadcast any interviews with Ahmadinejad? I have seen several interviews and press conferences with him on Press TV (Iranian English speaking TV channel) including some where he was asked some hard hitting questions from the likes of Robert Fisk from the Independent. He seems like a reasonable enough man and gave some very good and interesting responses. He didn't seem anything like the tyrant Sky News and others would have us believe. And another point is that he never said that he wanted Israel wiped off the world map (or face of the earth) as repeated ad nauseam in the western media. It is a totally inaccurate translation of what he really said.

There is no question that there are two-sides to be told in this story. As you may have seen with my other responses, I urge everybody to exercise caution with what they hear right now.

I would personally love nothing more than to have a senior figure in the Iranian power structure to talk to us live on RTE. On my visits to Iran, I have been repeatedly frustrated with how difficult it is to actually sit down and interview senior Government officials. But that has more to do with bureaucracy than anything else (it's generally a struggle for any RTE reporter in the field to persuade prime ministers and presidents to spare time to talk to an Irish audience).

As for our focus on this story, I would say it is the most consequential story in the world right now because the future of Iran affects us all. It is vital to the stability of the wider region is is located in. It is a huge power in the debate over conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan and Palestine. It is a powerful influence in the Islamic world. It can effect everything from the situation in Lebanon to the supply of oil to countries like Ireland. Iran matters. These protests matter and the response of the Iranian power elite matters.

As for Ahmadinejad, it is not my job to characterise his personality. I would advise readers to do their own research about his views on Israel and the Holocaust - that is the beauty of the online age. You can source fact. You don't have to reply on the second-hand opinion that feels true.

RTE Prime Time: Mark

Hi guys,

Prime Time team member here, Mark Little had to head off to organise some things for the show later on (RTÉ One 930). He's going to try and come back and answer more in a few hours.

Fantastically informed questions, hope readers benefited somewhat and enjoyed it so far.

Mark