Boards.ie Questions and Answers Session with Mark Little about Events in Iran

RTE Prime Time: Mark

clown bag wrote: »

Are the protests genuine and spontaneous, sparked by the fear of vote rigging or were elements inside and outside Iran planning to manipulate Iranian opposition into mobilising on the streets regardless. Does the evidence support mass vote rigging?

How reliable were opinion polls before the election which predicted a tight race and if vote rigging occurred why make it so obvious, in light of those polls which predicted a much tighter race. What purpose would it serve to misrepresent the opinion polls?

If Adhmedinejad was outed, and a new moderate government installed, more open to the west, would that be a good thing or a bad thing with regard to stability within the country itself and the effect it would have on other countries such as Syria and Lebanon?

If proved true and the election was a sham, how likely would it be that Adhmedinejad and/or the hardline clerics will allow another election or stand down? Would there be a civil war or an eventual peaceful transfer of power?

Clearly, the consensus in the West and among those protestors in Iran is that the elections were rigged.

The biggest questions surround the unlikely prospect that Mousavi lost in his home town, among his Azeri ethnic group and in the big cities, where there was a massive increase in turnout.

Let me direct you to some well argued links - for and against the fairness of the election.

The counter-argument to the conventional wisdom is outlined in the Washington Post which details a pre-election poll showing Ahmadinejad in a clear lead

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/14/AR2009061401757.html

And then there is counter-counter-argument is put, also in the Washington Post.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/behind-the-numbers/2009/06/about_those_iran_polls.html
And by the head of polling at ABC News
http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenumbers/2009/06/irans-election-the-odds-of-fraud.html

As for the question about the impact of a change in President on policy toward Syria and Lebanon, I would see little prospect of change as long as the Revolutionary Guard remain the driving force behind Iran's relationship with Hezbullah and Hamas. Also remember, among Shia Muslims around the Middle East and beyond Iran is a very important counter-point to the dominance of the Sunni branch of Islam. Many powerful figures in the regime feel Iran needs to remain a champion of resistance to maintain its global influence

As for the prospects of a peaceful transfer of power or civil war, the outcome of this drama will be decided by the power struggle among the elite. Who emerges as the stronger force - the pragmatists or the hardliners?

RTE Prime Time: Mark

kingkane wrote: »

Youth unemployment is a massive problem in Iran (and the Muslim world generally) to what exact has Ahmadinejad been able to address it at all? And has that shored up his support amongst some portions of the younger voters?

Great question to which they is - as always in Iran - a contradictory answer.

Among urban middle-class young people, Ahmadinejad is a symbol of thwarted dreams. The quality of education they receive is very high by international standards and quite equal - woman form a majority of graduates - but they have few prospects of achieving their dreams in an economy that is heavily focussed on state enterprise and oil wealth rathe than innovation.

The rural poor feel Ahmedinejad has been a champion of their cause - because he has redirecting oil wealth away from the powerful cronies to ordinary people. They have been the beneficiaries of his economic policies.

But the urban working class, who have borne the brunt of Iran's economic sclerosis are conflicted. What Ahmedinejad has done to create wealth in their neighbourhoods is offset by the caustic impact of rising prices.

Ahmadinejad has been very skilful in holding on to the support of the working class and poorer Iranian with massive public works spending and redistribution but that is proving to be a very blunt instrument, made even more blunt by inflation.

RTE Prime Time: Mark

solice wrote: »

Hi Mark,

From a western point of view,Mousavi is no better than Ahmadinejad, he wont stop their nuclear program, he is suspicious of the west, he wont bring about significant change within the countrys leadership that will make Iran a friendly country(?)

So why should we really care about whats going on?

Solice

You know, I can see why it would seem this is a distant drama but believe me, this proud nation of 70 million people, inheritors to the Persian empire of the past, in the most sensitive region on earth, with a huge position of influence in the Muslim world, on the verge of being a nuclear power, with an historical rivalry to the United States and with access to vast natural resources on which we in the West depend .... I don't know, take your pick of reasons why this is the most important story in the world right now. Put simply, everything from the price of the petrol you put in your car to the future shape of the world your grandkid inherits will be determined - at least in part - by what is happening right now in Iran.

RTE Prime Time: Mark

Orlaithf wrote: »

Mousavi has been described in the past by an Iranian oppostion member as a "pocket-sized version of Ayatollah Khomeini". My question is how much of a reformist is he really? He shares many similarities with Ahmadinejad in that he has stated that he wants Iran to continue nuclear enrichment and he refuses to recognise Israel. These are both pivotal issues which will impact any future diplomatic relationship with the US and the United Nations. He has made calls for disbanding the religious police but even Ahmadinejad himself has moved away from the religious mullahs and is more at home with the military leaders. Does Mousavi really hold out the promise of significant change for Iran?

Orlaith, there's a lot in your question which I think I may have answered in part in a previous reponse.

But let me just take a moment to share a sense of what the young Iranians supporting the protests are feeling right now. The people hoping for the best and preparing for the worst

I e-mail an old friend in Tehran the other day wishing her the best. This is her response (one view, not a definitive view):

Thank you for you kid thoughts Mark, but i am feelng overwhelmed by a mixture of hope and despair. I don't know how much of this is a game the big guys are playing in which we sepcially the courageous youngsters are pawns.
I ahve two problems that will not abate as questions. why did this guy ahve to be so brazen in his cheating because we know he has cheated, karoubi could not possibly ahve only got 250000 votes, that is impossible, just his campaign workers must ahve been more than that.
so why why on earth did they bring about this unrest so willingly. did they not anticipate it or is this part of their end of days scenario for the country and the rest of the world?
I sound apocalyptic because I now believe if this man remains he will be the head of a very frightening islamic fascist movement with all the resources this resource rich country has to offer.
my second problem is how are they going to conclude this to the satisfaction of themeseves and the people. because that one will be hard as far as I see .


I can hear the sound of pro mussavi kids coming up vail e asr. we didn't go out today because the rumour mill told us this would be a trap.now it is night time and we worry they will open fire again especially as there are rumours that the electricity will be turned off. already my gmail is gone....one of our main ways of telling each other what is happening.
mobiles are off again.
we still have satellite TV, but with interruptions to BBC persian which is the main source of proper news and analysis in persian.


I can't imagine this getting better before it gets worse, I wonder where Musssavi is today?


Pray for us and our kids.the youngsters are angry and have little to lose and their friedsn are dead.

RTE Prime Time: Mark

Funglegunk wrote: »

Hi Mark,

Do you think that Mousavi is the true leader of this protest movement, or has he just become a figurehead or rallying point for Iranians desperate for a more radical change than he actually represents?

And how much do Mousavi's policy positions, particularly foreign policy, really differ from Ahmadinejad's?

further to our conversations about Mousavi, here's a pretty good guide to the man and the myth

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/18/world/middleeast/18moussavi.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

RedPlanet

On post 30
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=60756517&postcount=30
You ask us to

As for Ahmadinejad, it is not my job to characterise his personality. I would advise readers to do their own research about his views on Israel and the Holocaust

But why should we care about his views on the Holocaust?
That event occured 60 years ago, it has no relevance in todays issues.

It seems like this is an attempt by RTE, to label Ahmadinejad a "holocaust denier", which stikes me as a bit unethical.
Don't you remember when the Jewish leaders in Iran met Ahmadinejad in 2007?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNcaQ4k7VM8

Surely Ahmadinejad's views on say, US/UK's war on terror, or the IAEA, or teh current state of the economy has much more relevance today than his views on teh Holocaust.
RTE shouldn't go around character assassinating.

DeVore

Hello and welcome to our part of the internet Mark. (Its Tom here).

My question is a little off topic but I wanted to know your opinion on it.
Given you were key to the reporting coverage of Obama's election, what is your take on the declaration by H Clinton that settlement in Gaza should stop and the slap in the face the Israelis gave as a reply? Do you think Obama will stand his ground and stand by their decision to oppose further settlement?

Also, its hard to get an idea of exactly how many people are supporting the opposition in Iran, is it a few hundred thousand or does this really have the capacity to throw Iran into a civil war?


Putting my administrator hat on, welcome to the site and thanks for taking the time to give us such complete responses to the questions put!

Tom "DeV" Murphy

oscarBravo

RedPlanet wrote: »

But why should we care about his views on the Holocaust?
That event occured 60 years ago, it has no relevance in todays issues.

The Holocaust has "no relevance"? What a strange idea.

It seems like this is an attempt by RTE, to label Ahmadinejad a "holocaust denier", which stikes me as a bit unethical.

It's an incredible leap to take a suggestion that people do their own research, and claim that it's an attempt to label.

RTE shouldn't go around character assassinating.

And posters here shouldn't go around inventing reasons to criticise journalists who engage openly with the community.

tbh

Mark, how much of a role does Mousavi's wife have to play in all of this? I got the impression that the campaign was more about her than him. Has she made any statements, and does she have any role to play in bringing this to a resolution?

RedPlanet

oscarBravo wrote: »

The Holocaust has "no relevance"? What a strange idea.

in today's issues, did you forget that bit?

oscarBravo wrote: »

It's an incredible leap to take a suggestion that people do their own research, and claim that it's an attempt to label.

Rubbish, he's making an implication about the president of Iran's views on the Holocaust. He's not simply floating the idea of doing your own research.

oscarBravo

RedPlanet wrote: »

Rubbish, he's making an implication about the president of Iran's views on the Holocaust. He's not simply floating the idea of doing your own research.

In your opinion, which has been noted, thanks. Back on topic.

DeVore

Can we keep this on a Q&A keel please... if you want a regular discussion about that topic, well... I dont think we've run out of new threads juuuust yet.

DeV.

Biggins

Obvioulsy the religious head won't want to lose face by admitting that there was an election con. With that in mind, can there really be a political change from Ahmadinejad to anyone else if ALL (not very likely) the votes were correctly counted the second time around?

If Ahmadinejad is not seen by the rest of the world as legit (and we shouldn't treat him as such in my opinion), should we then no longer deal with him but ask for other more legitimate representatives to come and talk?

Its obvious the religious heads are playing for time and eventually will change nothing I think. They don't want to lose face I suspect by additionally asking Ahmadinejad to step down due to his con re-election.

RTE Prime Time: Mark

lostexpectation wrote: »

does rte generally double check stories or take them straight off the wires?

I can only speak for myself, but - in the first instance - it depends on the transparency of the source - if I can see where a quote or piece of information comes from, it carries greater weight. There are certain wire services that are more reliable than others - and I can say that from experience. For television purposes, we need to hear from a primary source - we need to see it in video. That sometimes puts a higher burden on broadcasters since they need to have visual proof of a storyline.

DTrotter

What do the Mullahs think of Mousavi and vice cersa? Isn't the only way for a true revolution to get rid fo them?

RTE Prime Time: Mark

DeVore wrote: »

Hello and welcome to our part of the internet Mark. (Its Tom here).

My question is a little off topic but I wanted to know your opinion on it.
Given you were key to the reporting coverage of Obama's election, what is your take on the declaration by H Clinton that settlement in Gaza should stop and the slap in the face the Israelis gave as a reply? Do you think Obama will stand his ground and stand by their decision to oppose further settlement?

Also, its hard to get an idea of exactly how many people are supporting the opposition in Iran, is it a few hundred thousand or does this really have the capacity to throw Iran into a civil war?

Thanks Tom. This is a really valuable opportunity for me. I can't really comment on US policy towards Israel, save to say I think Obama see the conflict in Palestine in a far wider context than his predecessors, including Bill Clinton. He understands there is no stand-alone solution - there must be engagement with a whole host of interconnected players, including Iran.

And so back to the central issue, I really can't say exactly how broad the support for the protests is. But I do get the sense it is wider than previous reformist movements. The very fact that today's big march in Tehran took place in the south of the city - well away from the wealthy, middle-class suburbs in the north of the city - tells me that Mousavi's people are confident they have eaten into the traditionally conservative constituencies. Still, don't underestimate Ahmadinejad's populist touch. He has connected on a very deep level with the rural poor, who regard him as their champion inside an elitist establishment.

RTE Prime Time: Mark

RedPlanet wrote: »

On post 30
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=60756517&postcount=30
You ask us to
But why should we care about his views on the Holocaust?
That event occured 60 years ago, it has no relevance in todays issues.

It seems like this is an attempt by RTE, to label Ahmadinejad a "holocaust denier", which stikes me as a bit unethical.
Don't you remember when the Jewish leaders in Iran met Ahmadinejad in 2007?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNcaQ4k7VM8

Surely Ahmadinejad's views on say, US/UK's war on terror, or the IAEA, or teh current state of the economy has much more relevance today than his views on teh Holocaust.
RTE shouldn't go around character assassinating.

I will let my original reply speak for itself and let others do the assassinating.

RTE Prime Time: Mark

tbh wrote: »

Mark, how much of a role does Mousavi's wife have to play in all of this? I got the impression that the campaign was more about her than him. Has she made any statements, and does she have any role to play in bringing this to a resolution?

Here's a great profile of Mousavi's wife, Zahra, from Newsweek

http://www.newsweek.com/id/201654?from=rss

RTE Prime Time: Mark

Biggins wrote: »

Obvioulsy the religious head won't want to lose face by admitting that there was an election con. With that in mind, can there really be a political change from Ahmadinejad to anyone else if ALL (not very likely) the votes were correctly counted the second time around?

If Ahmadinejad is not seen by the rest of the world as legit (and we shouldn't treat him as such in my opinion), should we then no longer deal with him but ask for other more legitimate representatives to come and talk?

Its obvious the religious heads are playing for time and eventually will change nothing I think. They don't want to lose face I suspect by additionally asking Ahmadinejad to step down due to his con re-election.

There are certainly people in the elite who are scared of losing face. But I think there are also members of the elite - clerics, politicians, soldiers - who want to see the back of Ahmadinejad because they believe he threatens the survival of their Islamic revolution. The question is are they powerful enough within the right institutions of the state - such as the assembly of experts, the expediency council and the Majlis - and do they feel they can be seen to side with a protest movement with such destabilising potential for the regime.

RTE Prime Time: Mark

lostexpectation wrote: »

is the west just getting the better off, internet connected view, when it said that Ahmadinejad is genuinely popular with larger poorer rural vote, just like sinatwa in thailand.


Straight Question to Mark. Did Mousavi win the election. YES or NO.

The first part of your question definitely has some truth to it. Foreign correspondents tend to be enamoured of cool, young Iranian kids who speak English freely in the nicer parts of Northern Tehran (and have access to technology). But as i have said in other replies, there is something more to this movement than cool kids who tweet and blog.

As to the second part of your question, a straight answer is I don't know. And right now, anyone who tells you otherwise should be treated with real caution.

RTE Prime Time: Mark

<Prime Time team member>

Thanks for the questions people.

We're getting closer to air now I don't think Mark will get a chance to log in again today. I know he has found the conversation very interesting. The Prime Time team will be in the coming days to discuss doing more of this type of thing - we'll keep you informed about related online interaction plans.

Feel free to continue posting questions/replies, I think Mark is looking to come back tomorrow to continue if he gets the chance (though obviously can't guarantee anything).

Thanks

Mark

</Prime Time team>

Dave!

RTE Prime Time (Mark) wrote: »

But as i have said in other replies, there is something more to this movement than cool kids who tweet and blog.

Blogging is the antithesis of cool

By the way, using boards in work, Mark?! :eek: tut, tut... this is where my tax dollars go...

lostexpectation

rte has tendancy to reports things that people say as if theyre true, even though we all know theyre not, i don't think it up to us to decifer them, bring some context rte and tell us what is bs, like this you tweeted from your account

An informed and nuanced view of the impact of the post-election unrest on US policy toward Iran http://politics.theatlantic.com/2009/06/writing_for_the_new_yorker.php

It's an exquisite balancing act. On the one hand, there'd be penalties to pay if it appeared as if the United States were meddling in Iran's affairs. That would, after all, violate the precepts of Obama's vow of political non-interference, a centerpiece of his speech to Muslims in Cairo.

when has america done anything exquisitly balanced??? Thas not the American way.

[1]are you suggesting the US isn't trying to destabilise and interfere covertly and overtly and militarily in iran?

we can't avoid talking about america, were living in their arena.
sy hersh reported on it and obama has no problem breaching countries sovereignty militarily eg pakistan.
the US is funding groups that EU consider to be terrorists etc,
heck the people involved could have flown through shannon.
all these people like hitchens suddenly developing an interest in irans sovereign democracy.

lostexpectation

RTE Prime Time (Mark) wrote: »

I can only speak for myself, but - in the first instance - it depends on the transparency of the source - if I can see where a quote or piece of information comes from, it carries greater weight. There are certain wire services that are more reliable than others - and I can say that from experience. For television purposes, we need to hear from a primary source - we need to see it in video. That sometimes puts a higher burden on broadcasters since they need to have visual proof of a storyline.

well seeing this is internet chat i say that it seems the rte.ie does just take stuff straight off the wires and lot of us just read that if not also listening to tv and video which goes into more detail. rte needs to keep up standards where ever the name is used.

Khannie

Nooooo. Can't believe I missed this. I've been to Iran and really like it as a country (oppressive regime aside). Would really like to have engaged in some discussion on it.

kingkane

RTE Prime Time (Mark) wrote: »

I will let my original reply speak for itself and let others do the assassinating.

I suspect this is where someone would insert the Basil Brush punchline!

DeVore

Khannie, electrons dont get tired you know! you could start a thread or join one of the existing ones?

Mark, many thanks for coming and engaging with us here. We dont bite (much).

Can't wait to see what we could do together on Lisbon!!

Hope you remain a regular around here, its been very interesting. I have a great deal of questions around the topic of "news as entertainment" which seems to be a movement in the US, I'd be interested in your views on it but for now, thank you for taking time out of a day when your show was about to air to chat here.

DeV.

nesf

RTE Prime Time (Mark) wrote: »

I think the best way to summarise this is to say Mousavi is strongest among the middle classes and well educated (and foreign observers tend to emphathise easily with that constituency) but there is evidence he has appeal among those who have been alienated by rising inflation and unemployment - particularly in working-class neighbourhoods of the big cities - and by some religious conservatives who feel he represents the purest strands of the original Islamic revolution. I wouldn't overestimate that support - Ahmadinejad is still the champion of the rural poor - but Mousavi is not simply the candidate of the urban rich.

As side point to this, and apologies for being so late in the day in bringing this up, is the demographic shifts over the past decade in Iran. The rural peasantry which Ahmadinejad has a large support base has been shrinking as the urban middle class have grown. This is partially where this big change has come from, we're seeing a middle class driven movement here rather than a populist movement, the former being similar to that seen in Revolutionary France and Britain which saw a drive towards democracy and the latter which is similar to Venezuela's current situation which leads to populist totalitarian government for various reasons. I don't really want to get into a deeper debate on how middle class revolution leads to stable democracy and stronger independent public institutions (such as courts etc) over time.

The question: Are we seeing now in Iran the beginnings of a permanent shift towards true democracy due to these demographic changes similar to what's presently happening with the slowly expanding democratisation/liberalisation of China linked to the expanding middle class there?

bonkey

I'm hoping that my political knowledge isn't hopelessly out of date here, but anyway...

For years now, the US have had no official contact with Iran. Rather, they've both used Switzerland (and possibly other nations, but prediminantly the Swiss, IIRC) as a go-between.

I seem to recall Obama making some noise about changing this, and engaging with Iran directly.

I'd like to know what your take on the possibilities of that happening are, Mark - whether you think it will/can come about, whether the Iranians themselves want it to come about, and whether or not it could actually change anything.

ETA: To tie it to the current events, rather than deVore's tangential Obama question...I'd additionally ask whether or not the outcome of the current events could be the catalyst for change in this regard regardless of how it turns out.

Red Sleeping Beauty

Ah.. Obama puts his foot down on the matter and suddenly the plot thickens. I suppose it's not too hard to surmise why it's become front page news.